Week 14: Taking the Fifth

Standings:

1.) Schweinfurth 43-11 (0-13 upset)
2.) Hoying 41-13 (2-11 upset)
3.) Seeberg 37-17 (3-10 upset)
3.) Draper 37-17 (2-11 upset)

It's been a long four years, Buckeye Nation, but we're nearly there. Here's to shutting up TTUN for the fifth year and beyond.

FRIDAY THE 28TH

Georgia Bulldogs @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Draper: This battle has been super interesting over the last few years.  After the Jackets were screwed last year in Athens, there is a touch of hope of knocking the Dawgs out in Clean Old-Fashioned Hate.  Sadly, I just don't see it happening.  Haynes King and Georgia Tech have petered out as the season has advanced while UGA appears to be getting stronger.  UGA is not the squad they have been over the past few years, but GT is DOA. Oh yeah, Tech sold the rights to holding the rivalry in Bobby Dodd.  Stupid 'neutral sites'.   UGA: 24--GT: 10

Hoying: Talk about two squads heading in opposite directions. After needing a late TD to get by Florida, the Bulldogs have taken a chainsaw to their foes the last few weeks, including crushing Texas two weeks ago. GT, no the other hand, has all but fallen out of ACC (and thus at this point, Playoff) contention after taking two losses and needing a last second FG against horrible Boston College saving the Jackets against losing three straight. Yes, Haynes King is always dangerous (and was near-lethal to the Dawgs last year), but Tech's defense is just so, so bad, which is a recipe for disaster against an offense hitting its stride at the right part of the season. UGA: 34--GT: 20

Schweinfurth: I don’t see where the Yellow Jackets can hang with the Dawgs. GT has gotten better this year, but I just don’t see it quite yet. UGA:31—GT 7
Seeberg: This contest right here should be the poster child for why conference expansion stinks. 11 weeks in and I have no idea if GT is any good or not. That shouldn’t be possible. Regardless, these in-state-but-out-of-conference foes face off this weekend. I do believe Haynes King is versatile enough to keep this one interesting for awhile, but one player isn’t enough to beat the Speeders and Best (see what I did there?). Bulldogs pull away in the second half. UGA: 38—GT: 20

Fightin' Texas Aggies @ Texas Longhorns

Draper: Fool a guy once, guilt to that dude.  Fool a fellow twice...  I keep falling for the Horns. I just can't believe they're as so-so as they've looked.  The Aggies have been playing with fire and they feel like they're going to get tagged.  It's possible that it won't be until Atlanta, but rivalries are fickle courtesans.  Reed looked below average against the Cocks for a half then blew up to keep the Ags undefeated.  I feel like Texas is ready to have another OU type explosion of 'we are actually not terrible!'  Austin, ghosts of the past, and Battered Aggie Disease elicit recollections of the #1 Longhorns.  Aggies: 17--Horns: 20

Hoying: The Lone Star Showdown could just as easily be called the Fool's Gold Bowl: for one of these two, for the hype they got entering the season, and for the other, the faith they're being shown now. Texas's struggles have been well trod by now: starting at #1 preseason before discovering that Arch wasn't the nation's top young QB after all, and the rushing attack hasn't worked down the stretch either. Their in-state rivals have avoiding the losing side of the scoreboard but they literally haven't faced a single school in the top half of the SEC standings, and have let lesser foes like Auburn and Arkansas hang around for far longer than they should have, to say nothing of the 2nd Half Cocky Collapse that saved the Aggies' undefeated season against South Carolina in College Station. There's a good chance the Aggies have already enjoyed their last win this season, now that it's nothing but big boys going forward. Actually, let's go ahead and say that. Texas uses up whatever they've been saving this season to sow the seeds of doubt in their rivals. Aggies: 24--Horns: 27 

Schweinfurth: I have greater faith in the Aggies D than Arch. Texas has been up and down like a roller coaster while the Aggies have everything ahead. Are the Horns dangerous? Yes. Will they win? No. Aggies:17—Horns: 10
Seeberg: Well, probably the inverse of what everyone thought this one would look like at season’s end. Against all odds, the Aggies have avoided their usual late season collapse- despite their best efforts against South Carolina a couple weeks back- and sit at 11-0. Also against all odds, they have exactly 1 win against a currently ranked opponent…and it wasn’t even in conference play! Yet another case for how lousy conference expansion has been. On the flip side, the Longhorns are better than they were week 1 against the Buckeyes, but still not the juggernaut that a lot of people foresaw preseason. I wonder if SC didn’t give Arch and Sark a blueprint for scoring virtually at will. I still don’t trust the Aggies until they do it. Horns up in Austin! Aggies: 17—Horns: 24

SATURDAY THE 29TH

Coral Gables Hurricanes @ Pittsburgh Panthers

Draper: I find it difficult to really give 2 craps about this contest. Are either of these squads decent? Eh, decent is about right. Carson Beck can't stop throwing picks and Pitt is the definition of ordinary.  Neither the Canes nor Panthers control their destiny, but the Canes are playing for the possibility of an at-large bid.  It's still not looking good, but they need this and need it badly.  Honestly, I don't know...which gives an easy decision---Eff the Canes.  Canes: 20--Panthers: 24

Hoying: Pat Narduzzi laid out the plan for Pitt two weeks ago: lose to ND by 100 and then beat GT and the Hurricanes, and you're playing for the ACC title. Go ahead and check boxes one and two, and now the Canes head north for the last piece of the puzzle. Of course, this doesn't have any significance if Virginia and the Ponies take care of business against their respective underdog opponents on Saturday, but when has anything in the ACC gone according to plan this season? You'll never believe this, but Da U has faceplanted again after another hot start and waves of plaudits awarded by anyone desperate not to recognize the Buckeyes as this year's school to beat. The offense isn't consistent enough and Beck appears to turn into a turnover factory when the result is in doubt. Another squad living solely off of an early season win over the Fighting Irish (see also above). But, again, those are the very Irish that could have walloped Pitt by a hundred just two weeks ago if they'd wanted to. The ceiling for the Panthers is just too low, and while the Canes don't really have a realistic path to the ACC title, they're still in the thick of the Playoff hunt and aren't going to let an opportunity slip away for the second year in a row. Canes: 31--Panthers: 20

Schweinfurth: The ACC is a crap show. The Canes had this conference in hand and let it slip away. Pitt isn’t great and I can’t get support the Panthers after what the Irish did last week. Canes win but Beck throws a few INTs for fun. Canes: 30—Panthers: 17
Seeberg: Again- are either of squads actually good? Frankly, I wish I knew. Pitt had ND, GT and the Canes to end their season. I think we all thought they would rise up and get one of those wins. Turns out it was Georgia Tech. With the Canes still vying for an at-large CFP bid, they should have enough to play for to avoid laying an egg. Canes pull away late. Canes: 38—Pitt: 23

Vanderbilt 'Dores @ Tennessee Volunteers

Draper: Does the fantasy season have a fairy tale ending for the Dores and send Pavia to NY or do the Vols ruin the best season their rival has had....ever? This being in Knoxville will really give Vandy headaches.  I cannot be convinced UT is that good, but they'll be up for this one.  It feels like it's the hour in which the carriage turns back into the gourd for the Dores.  I can't go against Rocky Top in Knoxville here.  (It's no 'Neyland North', but....)  Vandy: 24--UT: 30

Hoying: What has Tennessee learned since losing to the Sooners? The Vols had little trouble working the ball down the field that day but turnovers allowed OU to hang around until they could deliver a late knockout blow. I would advise not allowing Diego Pavia to hang around; he's a little bit of a psycho and I would think he's still rather sore about being bottled up by the Tennessee defense last year in Nashville. I get the feeling that one of these two could have caused a headache or two in the Playoff had they gotten there, if only they could have stopped shooting their foot off again and again this season. The other rode their generational QB as far as they could go, which appears will be just short of their first ever 10 win season (at least until the bowls get underway). Vandy: 27--UT: 31

Schweinfurth: I don’t know how to feel about either of these two. The ‘Dores are really just Pavia and not a lot else. The Vols appear to be a little better. I’ll take the Vols, but only because it’s on Rocky Top. Vandy: 28—UT: 38
Seeberg: Hey it’s an in-state-in-conference rivalry! Let’s be real though: this one has been largely one-sided in the Vols’ favor throughout its history. This year, however, Vandy is quite possibly the better of the two; however, in this wacky sport of college football we all love, that hardly guarantees victory. Vandy is still in the running for an at-large bid with a little help. That, however, will also serve the Vols’ desire to play spoiler, especially in the friendly confines of Neyland South. I just can’t see Vandy getting enough stops through four quarters. Cue up Rocky Top, Stewie! Vandy: 24—UT: 35

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ That School Up North

Draper: They can't keep getting away with this.....The goal for the Buckeyes is (honestly) the exact replica of past years: don't. beat. yourself.  If the Bucks avoid turnovers and just play the way they are capable, there won't be an issue. If they try to beat the ghosts of Wolverine past, there could be trouble.  Focus on winning against the 2025 Wolverines. Don't let past years hurt you again.  The key here is the strong and steady defense.  Honestly, they haven't gotten a ton of pressure this year, but the run defense needs to bottle the Blue while the secondary avoids giving up the big play.  I don't see Underwood beating us over the top.  Sayin and #4 need to connect on a couple of plays, but just avoid giving those jerks short fields and we'll be fine. The perfect ending would be a solid win, shaking hands, and confidently walking off the field afterwards.  Show the Blue that they aren't worth the effort to us.  Defense squeezes the life out while the offense does enough to (finally) return to Indy.  Go Bucks! Beat Blue! OSU: 30--TTUN: 17

Hoying: There's no need to attach undue fear to this one, Buckeye Nation. I understand the desire to look back at the last four debacles in this rivalry and try to find the secret sauce for ensuring a different result this year. But it was never just one repeating factor, not even the guy on the sideline calling the plays. One year it's your run defense, one year it's execution on offense and punting/kicking, one year you just get beat by a better (or at least equally good) squad, and...well, 2022 was just a horribly called and played contest (plus another glaring factor that apparently doesn't rise to the level of any penalties of note). The good news is that last year was a near total fluke, and the Buckeyes appear resolved not to let it define their destiny in any sense going forward. Last year I expressed concern about how tight Day was acting this week, especially in contrast to his confident aura the prior week against the top 5 Hoosiers. But I think he's finally realized that he just needs to be Ryan Day, the 90%+ winning coach. You don't have to put TTUN on a pedestal the way Tress the Wolverine Slayer did, not when you have the best squad in the nation week after week. Coop-style preparation is fine as long as it isn't bundled with Coop-style pants crapping day-of decisions. The Buckeyes have gone on the road and played decent opponents this year, and the Washington and Illinois tilts weren't in any level of doubt at any point past the third quarter. The Silver Bullets are about to unleash an attack unlike any that Bryce Underwood has seen at any point in his life, and the Wolverine rushing attack isn't going to be good enough to undo his blunders. All of Day's tinkering on offense is about to be distilled down to what hurts the Corn and Blue to the greatest extent, whether that's a freshly rested JJ over the top or a battle tested Bo up the gut. The day has arrived for the streak to be reset: let's run it to 9 or 10 this go around. OSU: 27--TTUN: 10

Schweinfurth: This is the real one, and Ryan Day is due. I truly believe deep down Day learned his lesson last year. Call the plan that your guys are best at. That’s not running head long into a brick wall over and over. TTUN’s pass defense isn’t great. Let JJ and Carnell eat in this one. This also feels like another big day for Klare. I can’t see TTUN scoring over 10. This d is too good and disguises coverages too well. Go Bucks! Beat Blue! OSU: 35—TTUN: 9
Seeberg: Well folks, we have arrived. Season went way too fast, as usual. Reports at the Woody suggest this year’s Buckeye iteration is as relaxed as anyone has seen under Day, focused but not on edge. Last year, the pressure absolutely got to the coaching staff, but a natty and a large reshuffling has worked wonders. If 4 and 17 are 90%+, then TTUN’s iffy (at best) pass defense is in a world of hurt, even in snowy conditions. I think a plan along the lines of 2018 would be excellent- the year when Haskins tore their #1 defense apart with crossing routes and short passes galore. To be fair, I don’t expect 62 points. I do, however, expect a turnover or two out of Underwood to set up our offense in good field position. A pick six isn’t off the table either. As long as Sayin stays J-Cool, and the staff doesn’t pucker, there’s no need for this to be a 4-quarter contest. Get out early, quiet that hideous hole in the ground, and let Buckeye Nation relax by when Hang on Sloopy hits. Go Bucks, beat TTUN. OSU: 31—TTUN: 13

Upset Special

Draper: LSU over OU
Hoying: Virginia Tech over Virginia

Schweinfurth: Washington over Oregon
Seeberg: Cal over the Ponies