Buck Yuck. Let's get to it.
Offense: D+
Well, that was disappointing. JT has yet to show the improvement in accuracy, the receivers are still great athletes that can't get open, the running backs are fine but have cobwebs on them, and the Oline is suspect. Did that cover it all? Don't get me wrong, OU is a very good team, but the inept nature of this offense just should happen. I haven't figured out how the receivers as a group seem to be absolutely stagnant. They look completely unenthused. No effort in breaking to get open or continuing a play. It seems like they check in, run the route prescribed (sometimes), then simply sit down and watch. This leads to the immense vitriol on Mr. Barrett. I don't think he deserves the hate, but he does certainly need to improve his own game by quite a bit. Is the lack of a downfield passing game because: a) JT can't throw it, b) the receivers can't catch it/get open, c) the coaches don't call it because they don't like it, or d) the coaches don't call it because of a) and b). I tend to lean more to choices b and c (with a little a and d thrown in), but it would be nice just to give it a whirl once in a while. Need ten yards? You can bet we're getting some stupid swing pass to the boundary. I honestly don't know what JT is capable of because we never see it (maybe because the coaches know more) but if we trust these 'mega-recruit' receivers, wouldn't we be chucking it up a lot more? Notice, I didn't say much about the running backs...it's almost like I forgot about them....like our coaching staff.
Defense: C+
This unit is getting ripped every which way from Sunday, but I'll be honest, they exceeded my expectations for this game. The Sooner offense is very good and Mayfield is a top QB in the nation. Most of the secondary is in the NFL so I fully expected a point total in the 30s. They overachieved in that that staved off the Sooner attack pretty well until the end. Yes, they caught some breaks with turnovers and missed FGs, but they also created some of those breaks with hard hitting and a bend but don't break mentality. They certainly let up in the 2nd half, but the offense wasn't giving them anything to work with. The Dline was great as always, but the secondary showed their youth. The linebackers have been MIA this year as well. They'll improve over time, but this was a tough opponent for a secondary as green as this early in the year.
Special Teams: A-
Let's look on the bright side: the punting and field goal units looked great! I have no clue how Urban has recruited these punters when he traditionally punts less than most teams, but I'm liking what I see. Nuremburger was solid on FGs as well which is a welcome change. My only beef is an Urban staple of kicking off short attempting to start inside the 25 on defense. It's a risky strategy that hasn't worked out that well this year (in my opinion). OU started between the 30 and 40 with the potential of more far too often. Take the start at the 25 and move on.
Coaching: F
Herein lies my major beef with this game. I've seen little to no strides at wide receiver, quarterback, or offensive line in a few years which is a real issue. Also, when it comes to offensive gameplan, I have no clue what is happening. The spread offense loves the lateral pass, but not at the abandonment of everything downfield. We don't even attempt slant routes or go routes for that matter more than once a game...and they usually work (if the receivers could catch). At the very least, I'm willing to waste a down to expand the depth of the defense from time to time. Does anyone remember that we have 2 stellar backs? Dobbins and Weber were effective when they got the ball, but the amount of carries was almost nonexistent. Completely inexcusable when the downfield passing game is stagnant. I'm tired of nothing but stretch passes to the boundary and QB runs on every freaking play. They have value, but only when there is a little variety...AND WE HAVE THE WEAPONS TO PROVIDE VARIETY!! In fact, there are times when I yearn for the days of the walrus because he never forgot we had a running back. Many a steady dose of "Dave" is when this team needs--and our receivers may not be able to catch, but they can block their tails off. Defensively, the story is different with a new secondary every year. They need to scheme a little better for the checkdowns but that will come with time. My major issue is with the lack of any semblance of offensive identity and desire with this team. Senior QB, stud running backs, receivers who may not have started but played significant time last year...we should see more.
Overall: D-
The special teams saved the F, but there is work to do. I do remember the last time the Buckeyes lost their home opener, they hoisted the trophy in January. Many have said that was a different team, but after that VT loss, these same complaints reigned supreme 3 years ago. I have to have faith that things will improve. The next 3 games provide a lot of options to get better (although this week is going to be eminently frustrating for Buckeye Nation due to the option), but we need to start seeing development to come close to achieving our goals for the year.
Monday, September 11, 2017
Friday, September 08, 2017
Week 2: A Night to Remember
Standings
1. Hoying (3-1, 0-1 upset)
2. Draper (2-2, 0-1 upset)
3. Schweinfuth (2-2, 0-1 upset)
4. Seeberg (2-2, 0-1 upset)
Auburn Tigers @ Clemson Tigers
Draper: Auburn has been one of those 'hot' teams in the off season but I'm not quite sold. I love how Clemson is playing the 'disrespect' card while sitting in the top 5. Clemson will be just fine but I don't know if they can surmount the Bama challenge again. But the Auburn challenge in Death Valley? Yeah, I think they'll be fine. Maybe Jarrett Stidham will return to his glory days at Baylor, but I think the Tigers (of Clemson) have more than enough firepower on both sides to take care of business. Aub: 17--Clem: 34
Hoying: How much talent can a team lose and stay elite? Asking for a friend. No Deshaun Watson, no Mike Williams...no problem. Dabo has built a consistent winner at Clemson, while Auburn has been a year of Cam Newton, a string of miracle finishes, and a load of mediocrity over the last decade. There's no more to this than meets the eye. Aub: 16--Clem: 27
Schweinfurth: I predict the Tigers will win this game. Not good enough? I have no love for either of these teams. Mostly because one is an overrated SEC team and the other likes to violate other teams (ask Curtis Samuel). Auburn hasn't been the all powerful offense since Cam Newton graduated. Even with the questions Clemson had on offence entering the year, the defense is still more than capable of carrying this team to the playoffs. Aub: 17--Clem: 28
Seeberg: I also laugh at the purported disrespect flying around Death Valley as Clemson sits in the top five. They are, begrudgingly, reloading year in and year out a la Bama and the Bucks. Meanwhile, Auburn is a solid squad considering it isn't even the best team in its own state and took Clemson to the brink of Clemsoning at home last year, but Death Valley will prove a different story. Aub: 13--Clem: 27
Georgia Bulldogs @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Draper: Is Notre Dame 'back'? Have we realized how stupid making those claims are as of yet? No Jacob Eason for the Dawgs seems like the Irish could be poised to pounce, but Nick Chubb and Sony Michel are still healthy. I don't think we're at the crash point for UGA yet so I'll roll with Kirby Smart for another week. UGA: 27--ND: 17
Hoying: Ah, the has-beens get a visit from the never-really-were. But for a late Amari Cooper TD to lifting Alabama over UGA in the 2012 SEC Championship game, this could've been a nice national championship matchup (because Alabama-Notre Dame sure as hell wasn't). This game won't get Georgia any closer to their first SEC title since 2005, but it would be a nice signature win for the young Kirby Smart era, no matter how much of a mirage Notre Dame turns out to be (again). Georgia can't lose their first visit north in 50 years (unless you count a visit to Colorado, which I don't), or else the other SEC teams will re-barricade themselves in Confederate territory until they finally add Ohio State and Michigan in the next round of expansion. UGA: 41--ND: 24
Schweinfurth: 1-0 over with the win being over a total mismatched team makes ND good again? Righhhht. This is a team coming off of a losing season and questions around Brian Kelly. Last I checked, Nick Chubb still has NCAA eligibility and he is really, really good. I will laugh as he has a monster day over a very overrated Irish team. UGA: 35--ND: 10
Seeberg: Intriguing matchup of recent underachieving teams...if only considered so by their rabid fan bases as the rest of the nation sees these programs as second-tier these days. Nevertheless, the Bulldogs are a class above the Golden Domers just about everywhere across the board (remember Nick Chubb? Yeah he's been there for like 17 years now). UGA pulls away in the second half. UGA: 38--ND: 20
Stanford Cardinal @ USC Trojans
Draper: USC was certainly tested (surprisingly?) by a resilient Western Michigan team while Stanford just steamrolled Rice in Australia. There's been an awful lot of love for the Cardinal, but I think the Trojans will be fine after a little growing pains. Sam Darnold may not be the second coming, but he'll pull things together in week 2. USC is like their fans and don't really get interested (somewhat) until a bigger game comes up so they'll be ready to go on Sat. Fight On. Stan: 30 -- USC: 37
Hoying: USC is back...again. Yeah, you can jump all over the Trojans for starting slowly last week, but at least they didn't get smoked by 46 like they did to open last season. USC has grown up and came of age on the big stage last year in Pasadena (no, not against UCLA). Unfortunately for them, Stanford has shown zero signs of slowing down, and the Cardinal smacked last year's Rose Bowl champs up in Palo Alto. Will another year of experience for star QB Sam Darnold and a change of venue make a difference? Nah. Stan: 21--USC: 20
Schweinfurth: So Sam Darnold for Heisman? Not so much. He looked absolutely average last week and USC barely squeaked by. Stanford has owned USC in this matchup because they play great defense and control the ball. David Shaw just has some voodoo curse over the Trojans. Darnold throws 2 picks again and the Cardinal win. Stan: 28--USC: 24
Seeberg: USC forgot to play for about 2.5 quarters last week so it's difficult to gauge just how good they might be. The talent is not in question, only their ability to gel cohesively. If they do, Darnold can still rip through the Pac-12 and hang out in New York for an important trophy presentation in a few months. If not? Well, the Cardinal will show us what that may look like on Saturday. Fight off. Stan: 34--USC: 24
Oklahoma Sooners @ THE Ohio State Buckeyes
Draper: Do we get the repeat beatdown of last year, or are the chinks in the Buckeye Armor too much for a hot Sooner team? Last week was a fantastic benchmark test for the Buckeyes getting them up to game speed a little early while OU simply walked over the Little Sisters of the Poor. Baker Mayfield looked great last week, but doing that in the Shoe is another thing all together. I don't have faith that OU's defense will stop Barrett, Dobbins, Weber, and co., but by the same token, the Sooners will score. The hyped battle is OSU's D-line vs. the Sooner's O-line. I actually think the reverse may be more impactful to see if the OSU running game can get work done. The Sooners will have revenge on their minds, but the Buckeyes have their eyes on the prize. 4+ sacks for OSU enroute to high scoring victory. OU: 38 -- OSU: 41
Hoying: To win the big games, you need great players and/or great coaching. At what point do we face the harsh truth that Oklahoma doesn't really have either? Bud Elliott of SBNation has been tracking a stat he calls the "Blue Chip Ratio," or what percentage of a team's signees are 4 or 5 star recruits. If you're not above 50%, you're not winning a national championship. The Buckeyes are sitting pretty at 71%, while Oklahoma sits right around the top of the Big 12 at 45%. Yeah, Baker Mayfield is special, and the OU O Line is pretty good, but the Bucks can pretty much outclass them at every other position (yeah, maybe even wide receiver). And the Sooners are still breaking in a brand new coach who suddenly succeeded to the throne a few short months before the season started. When in doubt, pick the team with the better players and the better coach, especially when they're playing at home. The Buckeyes wore down Indiana in the second half, and the same will happen to Oklahoma. The Bucks exorcise some prime time non-conference home game demons (Texas, USC, Virginia Tech...). Even if this one does make me extremely nervous. OU: 27--OSU: 38
Schweinfurth: Last week I asked a bunch of questions and not many were answered. Yes, Paris Campbell and Johnnie Dixon hit some home runs, but Zone Six still can't take the top off a defense (yes, Paris should have caught the ball and it would have satisfied the requirement). The chart I saw showed only like two deep shots the entire game. It's understandable because the Hoosiers were giving up the mid-range routes, but you HAVE to hit one in this game. J.K. Dobbins is a beast and it will be good to have Weber back to take some of the load off the freshman. Defensively, the lack of experience showed last week, but adjustments were made. I think the Indiana WRs played over their skill set in the first half. Oklahoma won't run that tempo in the offense so the defensive backs should't be as gassed. The defensive line is as advertised. I think we see a repeat of last week. Oklahoma will move the ball in the first half, but adjustments will be made and the D-Line will take over. Dobbins and Weber combine for 150+ and JT throws for 300 again. Should be a fun one to watch. Go Bucks!
OU: 28--OSU: 31
Seeberg: OOOOOOOOOOklahoma where we forget that we have to play D. However, even that beleaguered half of the ball looked good for the Sooners against UTEP last week. Actually, several teams looked better than I'd hoped last week *cough Penn State cough* but alas, here we are with another huge early season matchup. Lincoln Riley is presumably the next "big thing" in coaching, but he already has the Oklahoma gig and there aren't too many any better. Will his brilliant play-calling win the day? Sure will...except it's a night game. By mid-second quarter last week our new offensive minds finally figured out that RUNNING to set up the pass is better than PASSING to set up the pass and it was a 35-7 second-half deluge on the Hoosiers. And hey, 45-24 worked well last year, why not again? Bucks big. OU: 24--OSU: 45
Upset Special
Draper: Cincinnati over Michigan
Hoying: Boise State over Washington State
Schweinfurth: Pitt over Penn St.
Seeberg: Western Michigan over Michigan State
1. Hoying (3-1, 0-1 upset)
2. Draper (2-2, 0-1 upset)
3. Schweinfuth (2-2, 0-1 upset)
4. Seeberg (2-2, 0-1 upset)
Auburn Tigers @ Clemson Tigers
Draper: Auburn has been one of those 'hot' teams in the off season but I'm not quite sold. I love how Clemson is playing the 'disrespect' card while sitting in the top 5. Clemson will be just fine but I don't know if they can surmount the Bama challenge again. But the Auburn challenge in Death Valley? Yeah, I think they'll be fine. Maybe Jarrett Stidham will return to his glory days at Baylor, but I think the Tigers (of Clemson) have more than enough firepower on both sides to take care of business. Aub: 17--Clem: 34
Hoying: How much talent can a team lose and stay elite? Asking for a friend. No Deshaun Watson, no Mike Williams...no problem. Dabo has built a consistent winner at Clemson, while Auburn has been a year of Cam Newton, a string of miracle finishes, and a load of mediocrity over the last decade. There's no more to this than meets the eye. Aub: 16--Clem: 27
Schweinfurth: I predict the Tigers will win this game. Not good enough? I have no love for either of these teams. Mostly because one is an overrated SEC team and the other likes to violate other teams (ask Curtis Samuel). Auburn hasn't been the all powerful offense since Cam Newton graduated. Even with the questions Clemson had on offence entering the year, the defense is still more than capable of carrying this team to the playoffs. Aub: 17--Clem: 28
Seeberg: I also laugh at the purported disrespect flying around Death Valley as Clemson sits in the top five. They are, begrudgingly, reloading year in and year out a la Bama and the Bucks. Meanwhile, Auburn is a solid squad considering it isn't even the best team in its own state and took Clemson to the brink of Clemsoning at home last year, but Death Valley will prove a different story. Aub: 13--Clem: 27
Georgia Bulldogs @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Draper: Is Notre Dame 'back'? Have we realized how stupid making those claims are as of yet? No Jacob Eason for the Dawgs seems like the Irish could be poised to pounce, but Nick Chubb and Sony Michel are still healthy. I don't think we're at the crash point for UGA yet so I'll roll with Kirby Smart for another week. UGA: 27--ND: 17
Hoying: Ah, the has-beens get a visit from the never-really-were. But for a late Amari Cooper TD to lifting Alabama over UGA in the 2012 SEC Championship game, this could've been a nice national championship matchup (because Alabama-Notre Dame sure as hell wasn't). This game won't get Georgia any closer to their first SEC title since 2005, but it would be a nice signature win for the young Kirby Smart era, no matter how much of a mirage Notre Dame turns out to be (again). Georgia can't lose their first visit north in 50 years (unless you count a visit to Colorado, which I don't), or else the other SEC teams will re-barricade themselves in Confederate territory until they finally add Ohio State and Michigan in the next round of expansion. UGA: 41--ND: 24
Schweinfurth: 1-0 over with the win being over a total mismatched team makes ND good again? Righhhht. This is a team coming off of a losing season and questions around Brian Kelly. Last I checked, Nick Chubb still has NCAA eligibility and he is really, really good. I will laugh as he has a monster day over a very overrated Irish team. UGA: 35--ND: 10
Seeberg: Intriguing matchup of recent underachieving teams...if only considered so by their rabid fan bases as the rest of the nation sees these programs as second-tier these days. Nevertheless, the Bulldogs are a class above the Golden Domers just about everywhere across the board (remember Nick Chubb? Yeah he's been there for like 17 years now). UGA pulls away in the second half. UGA: 38--ND: 20
Stanford Cardinal @ USC Trojans
Draper: USC was certainly tested (surprisingly?) by a resilient Western Michigan team while Stanford just steamrolled Rice in Australia. There's been an awful lot of love for the Cardinal, but I think the Trojans will be fine after a little growing pains. Sam Darnold may not be the second coming, but he'll pull things together in week 2. USC is like their fans and don't really get interested (somewhat) until a bigger game comes up so they'll be ready to go on Sat. Fight On. Stan: 30 -- USC: 37
Hoying: USC is back...again. Yeah, you can jump all over the Trojans for starting slowly last week, but at least they didn't get smoked by 46 like they did to open last season. USC has grown up and came of age on the big stage last year in Pasadena (no, not against UCLA). Unfortunately for them, Stanford has shown zero signs of slowing down, and the Cardinal smacked last year's Rose Bowl champs up in Palo Alto. Will another year of experience for star QB Sam Darnold and a change of venue make a difference? Nah. Stan: 21--USC: 20
Schweinfurth: So Sam Darnold for Heisman? Not so much. He looked absolutely average last week and USC barely squeaked by. Stanford has owned USC in this matchup because they play great defense and control the ball. David Shaw just has some voodoo curse over the Trojans. Darnold throws 2 picks again and the Cardinal win. Stan: 28--USC: 24
Seeberg: USC forgot to play for about 2.5 quarters last week so it's difficult to gauge just how good they might be. The talent is not in question, only their ability to gel cohesively. If they do, Darnold can still rip through the Pac-12 and hang out in New York for an important trophy presentation in a few months. If not? Well, the Cardinal will show us what that may look like on Saturday. Fight off. Stan: 34--USC: 24
Oklahoma Sooners @ THE Ohio State Buckeyes
Draper: Do we get the repeat beatdown of last year, or are the chinks in the Buckeye Armor too much for a hot Sooner team? Last week was a fantastic benchmark test for the Buckeyes getting them up to game speed a little early while OU simply walked over the Little Sisters of the Poor. Baker Mayfield looked great last week, but doing that in the Shoe is another thing all together. I don't have faith that OU's defense will stop Barrett, Dobbins, Weber, and co., but by the same token, the Sooners will score. The hyped battle is OSU's D-line vs. the Sooner's O-line. I actually think the reverse may be more impactful to see if the OSU running game can get work done. The Sooners will have revenge on their minds, but the Buckeyes have their eyes on the prize. 4+ sacks for OSU enroute to high scoring victory. OU: 38 -- OSU: 41
Hoying: To win the big games, you need great players and/or great coaching. At what point do we face the harsh truth that Oklahoma doesn't really have either? Bud Elliott of SBNation has been tracking a stat he calls the "Blue Chip Ratio," or what percentage of a team's signees are 4 or 5 star recruits. If you're not above 50%, you're not winning a national championship. The Buckeyes are sitting pretty at 71%, while Oklahoma sits right around the top of the Big 12 at 45%. Yeah, Baker Mayfield is special, and the OU O Line is pretty good, but the Bucks can pretty much outclass them at every other position (yeah, maybe even wide receiver). And the Sooners are still breaking in a brand new coach who suddenly succeeded to the throne a few short months before the season started. When in doubt, pick the team with the better players and the better coach, especially when they're playing at home. The Buckeyes wore down Indiana in the second half, and the same will happen to Oklahoma. The Bucks exorcise some prime time non-conference home game demons (Texas, USC, Virginia Tech...). Even if this one does make me extremely nervous. OU: 27--OSU: 38
Schweinfurth: Last week I asked a bunch of questions and not many were answered. Yes, Paris Campbell and Johnnie Dixon hit some home runs, but Zone Six still can't take the top off a defense (yes, Paris should have caught the ball and it would have satisfied the requirement). The chart I saw showed only like two deep shots the entire game. It's understandable because the Hoosiers were giving up the mid-range routes, but you HAVE to hit one in this game. J.K. Dobbins is a beast and it will be good to have Weber back to take some of the load off the freshman. Defensively, the lack of experience showed last week, but adjustments were made. I think the Indiana WRs played over their skill set in the first half. Oklahoma won't run that tempo in the offense so the defensive backs should't be as gassed. The defensive line is as advertised. I think we see a repeat of last week. Oklahoma will move the ball in the first half, but adjustments will be made and the D-Line will take over. Dobbins and Weber combine for 150+ and JT throws for 300 again. Should be a fun one to watch. Go Bucks!
OU: 28--OSU: 31
Seeberg: OOOOOOOOOOklahoma where we forget that we have to play D. However, even that beleaguered half of the ball looked good for the Sooners against UTEP last week. Actually, several teams looked better than I'd hoped last week *cough Penn State cough* but alas, here we are with another huge early season matchup. Lincoln Riley is presumably the next "big thing" in coaching, but he already has the Oklahoma gig and there aren't too many any better. Will his brilliant play-calling win the day? Sure will...except it's a night game. By mid-second quarter last week our new offensive minds finally figured out that RUNNING to set up the pass is better than PASSING to set up the pass and it was a 35-7 second-half deluge on the Hoosiers. And hey, 45-24 worked well last year, why not again? Bucks big. OU: 24--OSU: 45
Upset Special
Draper: Cincinnati over Michigan
Hoying: Boise State over Washington State
Schweinfurth: Pitt over Penn St.
Seeberg: Western Michigan over Michigan State
Monday, September 04, 2017
Grading the Bucks: Week 1--Indiana
We are all miserable people. I'll be honest, there were some moments in the first half where I caught myself being miserable. "Why did he throw it away? How'd he miss that block? Can anyone cover Cobbs?" This was certainly not the prettiest game of all time, but it was just fine for a season opener. I have heard more whining and complaining these past few days than normal in Columbus. JT sucks, the receivers suck, the secondary sucks, get rid of the coaches, blah blah blah. Many is Buckeye Nation will call me an apologist but let's get real.
1) USC was in a dogfight with Western Michigan at home
2) Texas got straight up beat by an inferior Maryland squad
3) Washington farted around with Rutgers
4) Louisville and the reigning Heisman winner had to fend off Purdue.
5) South Florida struggled with Stony Brook.
6) Baylor lost to an abstract construct.
7) UNLV fell in the greatest upset of all time against a guy named Howard
...but JT didn't complete every pass and Indiana crossed the 50...
I will dissect the Buckeyes game (briefly) and I will knock some of the issues we absolutely had, but we beat a decent (not great, but decent--I'd say 6-7 wins but the schedule is tough) IU squad at home, at night, in one of the biggest games in their history BY 28 FREAKING POINTS. Honestly, this is a coach's dream game. Comfortable win, some adversity, no turnovers, plenty of teachable moments.
Offense: B
While my intro defended JT a great deal, this was not the performance I was hoping for. It wasn't a bad performance like everyone would have you believe, but I was hoping for more. I think the main issue is his absolute aversion to turnovers. Don't get me wrong, that's a great thing...but you need to take some risks and he's still hesitant. It will (should?!?) come as the year progresses, but I was hoping to see a little more Brett Favre gunslinging (by the way, if he does start taking risks, I'm going to go ballistic when he gets skewered for throwing a pick or two). Also, stop arguing that the passing yards are mostly YAC. JT just needs to loosen up on a few deep balls a game and we'll be fine. The athletes at wide receiver aren't Calvin Johnsons, they're Percy Harvins (YAC type receivers). JT is built for that. On the "hey, that's cool" side, meet J.K. Dobbins. What a welcome debut in Bloomington. I wish he didn't have to break so many tackles, but I like the fact he did it. The big question is what's up with Weber. I really don't think he'll be Wally Pipped, but the talking heads have anointed Dobbins as the second coming. Don't forget how freakishly good Mike Weber was/is. I would not be surprised in the slightest for a 60-40 Weber split in touches next week (and that's ok). The biggest problem is sharing the load with all this talent. With regard to the receivers, we saw the entire gamut. Paris Campbell really fast and good and Paris Campbell dropsy drop. The halftime adjustments saw these guys getting many more touches in the second half with 10 yard passes...and that's JT's specialty. Keep feeding them and they'll be fine...but don't drop perfectly throw bombs...your QB needs credit for those.
Defense: B+
Again, definitely things to clean up, but not a bad first outing. The secondary is a green as...something that is really green (grass is too lame) and they got better as the game progressed. Also, Simmie Cobbs is really freaking good (might be the best receiver we face in the regular season). The defensive line was as good as advertised and will just be a nightmare for teams all year. There were a few miscommuncation plays but that's expected early on. I heard the broadcast (and Buckeye twitter) wondering how Lagow was throwing into tight windows so why can't JT? Just remember that Lagow also threw 2 picks. That's the trade off. Be careful what you wish for (to restate, I would like a little more risk, but not as much as most....there is a delicate balance). I would be remiss if I didn't mention one of the greatest plays of all time (that didn't count). Take a bow Robert Landers. That's a Touchdown in my eyes.
Special Teams: B+
No missed PATs, No missed FGs, no fumbled punts (woot), no kickoffs out of bounds (also woot). I'm still concerned with the risk reward of kicking short and attempting to pin people inside the 25. It works a lot, but is that extra 5 yards worth it when they break a decent return every once in a while. I'm more conservative on the kickoff and prefer to boot it into the endzone every time. I recall IU had a good return once, but it was a few days ago. Overall, nothing stands out on special teams, which is usually a good thing (take note FSU).
Coaching: B
Nice debut for the new offensive coaches. Not perfect, but nice. I thought the halftime adjustments on both sides of the ball were fantastic which is a real testament to the talent on the coaching roster. Kevin Wilson didn't go into a shell when things weren't working, but he tweaked until he found something that worked. Defensive coaches seemed to see the man defense wasn't super hot in the first half so threw in some more zone later. There were still some growing pains there, but outscoring an opponent 36-7 in the second half shows the dedication to training and concept. Still want more progress from JT but it was a ok for game one with these receivers. The decisions to go on 4th down were both correct decisions but the little jet sweep to Hill was a very curious playcall. I'm glad Urban still knows basic math, but the play call on 4th and short should be a simple one. They got cute and it cost them.
Overall: B+
Once again, 28 point win on the road, at night, in a hostile (sort of) environment (more than a normal IU game) in the first game of the season vs. a decent team with nothing to lose. Buckeyes weren't uber sharp and there are certainly gaps to fill, but I'm happy we had a real test for these young freshman. Oklahoma was trotting up and down the field last week, but I don't think they learned anything or got better last week. Indiana provided a chance for the Buckeyes to get better and get fired up for one of the 3 biggest games on their calendar. Game 1 to Game 2 usually yields the most improvement and I'm pumped for next week.
1) USC was in a dogfight with Western Michigan at home
2) Texas got straight up beat by an inferior Maryland squad
3) Washington farted around with Rutgers
4) Louisville and the reigning Heisman winner had to fend off Purdue.
5) South Florida struggled with Stony Brook.
6) Baylor lost to an abstract construct.
7) UNLV fell in the greatest upset of all time against a guy named Howard
...but JT didn't complete every pass and Indiana crossed the 50...
I will dissect the Buckeyes game (briefly) and I will knock some of the issues we absolutely had, but we beat a decent (not great, but decent--I'd say 6-7 wins but the schedule is tough) IU squad at home, at night, in one of the biggest games in their history BY 28 FREAKING POINTS. Honestly, this is a coach's dream game. Comfortable win, some adversity, no turnovers, plenty of teachable moments.
Offense: B
While my intro defended JT a great deal, this was not the performance I was hoping for. It wasn't a bad performance like everyone would have you believe, but I was hoping for more. I think the main issue is his absolute aversion to turnovers. Don't get me wrong, that's a great thing...but you need to take some risks and he's still hesitant. It will (should?!?) come as the year progresses, but I was hoping to see a little more Brett Favre gunslinging (by the way, if he does start taking risks, I'm going to go ballistic when he gets skewered for throwing a pick or two). Also, stop arguing that the passing yards are mostly YAC. JT just needs to loosen up on a few deep balls a game and we'll be fine. The athletes at wide receiver aren't Calvin Johnsons, they're Percy Harvins (YAC type receivers). JT is built for that. On the "hey, that's cool" side, meet J.K. Dobbins. What a welcome debut in Bloomington. I wish he didn't have to break so many tackles, but I like the fact he did it. The big question is what's up with Weber. I really don't think he'll be Wally Pipped, but the talking heads have anointed Dobbins as the second coming. Don't forget how freakishly good Mike Weber was/is. I would not be surprised in the slightest for a 60-40 Weber split in touches next week (and that's ok). The biggest problem is sharing the load with all this talent. With regard to the receivers, we saw the entire gamut. Paris Campbell really fast and good and Paris Campbell dropsy drop. The halftime adjustments saw these guys getting many more touches in the second half with 10 yard passes...and that's JT's specialty. Keep feeding them and they'll be fine...but don't drop perfectly throw bombs...your QB needs credit for those.
Defense: B+
Again, definitely things to clean up, but not a bad first outing. The secondary is a green as...something that is really green (grass is too lame) and they got better as the game progressed. Also, Simmie Cobbs is really freaking good (might be the best receiver we face in the regular season). The defensive line was as good as advertised and will just be a nightmare for teams all year. There were a few miscommuncation plays but that's expected early on. I heard the broadcast (and Buckeye twitter) wondering how Lagow was throwing into tight windows so why can't JT? Just remember that Lagow also threw 2 picks. That's the trade off. Be careful what you wish for (to restate, I would like a little more risk, but not as much as most....there is a delicate balance). I would be remiss if I didn't mention one of the greatest plays of all time (that didn't count). Take a bow Robert Landers. That's a Touchdown in my eyes.
Special Teams: B+
No missed PATs, No missed FGs, no fumbled punts (woot), no kickoffs out of bounds (also woot). I'm still concerned with the risk reward of kicking short and attempting to pin people inside the 25. It works a lot, but is that extra 5 yards worth it when they break a decent return every once in a while. I'm more conservative on the kickoff and prefer to boot it into the endzone every time. I recall IU had a good return once, but it was a few days ago. Overall, nothing stands out on special teams, which is usually a good thing (take note FSU).
Coaching: B
Nice debut for the new offensive coaches. Not perfect, but nice. I thought the halftime adjustments on both sides of the ball were fantastic which is a real testament to the talent on the coaching roster. Kevin Wilson didn't go into a shell when things weren't working, but he tweaked until he found something that worked. Defensive coaches seemed to see the man defense wasn't super hot in the first half so threw in some more zone later. There were still some growing pains there, but outscoring an opponent 36-7 in the second half shows the dedication to training and concept. Still want more progress from JT but it was a ok for game one with these receivers. The decisions to go on 4th down were both correct decisions but the little jet sweep to Hill was a very curious playcall. I'm glad Urban still knows basic math, but the play call on 4th and short should be a simple one. They got cute and it cost them.
Overall: B+
Once again, 28 point win on the road, at night, in a hostile (sort of) environment (more than a normal IU game) in the first game of the season vs. a decent team with nothing to lose. Buckeyes weren't uber sharp and there are certainly gaps to fill, but I'm happy we had a real test for these young freshman. Oklahoma was trotting up and down the field last week, but I don't think they learned anything or got better last week. Indiana provided a chance for the Buckeyes to get better and get fired up for one of the 3 biggest games on their calendar. Game 1 to Game 2 usually yields the most improvement and I'm pumped for next week.
Wednesday, August 30, 2017
Week 1: On the Road Again
Yes, it sucks to start the season on the road, but just be thankful Kevin Wilson's reunion tour with the Scarlet and Gray isn't kicking off with one of those neutral-site abominations plaguing the remainder of the sport this week.
Michigan Wolverines vs. Florida Gators
Draper: Well, this game is my personal hell. No clue what to expect here. Michigan came out firing on all cylinders last year but all those studs are in the NFL now. I truly believe they are supremely overrated....but...Florida seems to be the definition of mediocrity this year (and the recent past). I don't think the Wolverines can make a statement for the CFP this year, they do have a returning QB who was pretty good last year and a coach that just seems to get results (maybe because his players are scared he'll eat them). I'll lean Michigan just barely as their uniforms blind the Gators. UM: 24--UF: 20
Hoying: I wish I could write something intelligent about this game but Michigan refuses to release their roster and Florida won't name a starting QB. So I'll have to say something mindless instead. Did you see those new uniforms that the Maize and...well, Maize are wearing this Saturday? On the positive side, I don't think they'll burn out my eyes like UM's awful yellow-on-yellow b-ball jerseys, but this one's going to be ugly. And it could be a blowout, too. UM: 20--UF: 10
Schweinfurth: The headline for this game should be "Have you seen what TTUN is wearing?" This could be one of the worst uniforms ever (and I bet they break them out against the Buckeyes too). I really don't know what to expect from either team. Florida is suspending everyone and TTUN lost a ton of talent last year. Don't let Harbooger fool you, Speight will start and lead the offense to a one score win, making TTUN even more overrated than they already are. UM: 21--UF: 17
Seeberg: Ugh, this is the college football equivalent of the Mayweather-McGregor fight where I hoped the pay-per-view cut out completely and both guys lost because neither got paid (admit it, you would've laughed your arse off if that happened). At any rate, TTUN rolls their uniforms in cat urine and trots down south to take on the Gators. I don't expect it to be a particularly pretty matchup as the Wolverines are replacing about as many starters as OSU was last year while Florida is, well, Florida: Very good defense, middling offense, expectations always just a notch or two above any realistic outcomes. Malik Zaire actually gives them a credible QB threat...if he starts over highly touted freshman Feleipe Franks. Either way there won't be a lot of points, which is just how both teams prefer it. In crunch time, I have to go with a proven commodity at QB and Speight makes just enough plays to, sadly, pull it out for the maize and more maize. UM: 20--UF: 16
Florida State Seminoles vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Draper: Bama has been starting with a big boy for the past few years (USC, PSU, etc.), but this is a real challenge. The Noles are primed to make a run this year, but it can come crashing down (sort of) in week 1. Honestly, this game is a perfect scenario for both teams. The winner vaults to number 1 and is a prohibitive favorite for the playoff and the loser...is still right there in the running. I wonder what kind of strides DeAndre Francois and the Noles have made this offseason. Beating last year's UM team in the Orange Bowl was a nice feather in their cap, but Bama is a juggernaut that seems to be unstoppable (unless your name is Dabo). Definitely a little heart in this pick, but I'll call for the upset. Bama is a factory, but they have to run a little lower on talent when their roster is playing on Sundays, right...RIGHT!?! Either way, I just hope it's not the traditional early season stomp by the Tide. Go Noles! FSU: 31--Bama: 27
Hoying: The other day, I was listening to the good people at 97.1 The Fan try to list their top coaches of college football today. After the obvious top two (Nick and Urban), they filled out the second tier with Chris Petersen and Dabo Swinney, notably placing Jimbo Fisher somewhere down the line. It's hard to argue with recent results, with Clemson going to 2 straight national championships and claiming a win over Alabama. Florida State now has a golden opportunity to make a statement and regain their status as standard-bearer for the ACC. Can they do it? Probably not. Alabama has shown no signs of slowing down, they excel on the big stage, and they are pissed after gagging away a possible second straight national title. Florida State has lost the bulk of their receiving corps and their dynamic running back, Dalvin Cook. The good news for the Noles is that nobody on the committee will hold this loss against them (just don't get wrecked by 46 like USC did last year). FSU: 24--Bama: 31
Schweinfurth: Oh look, Bama playing a marquee matchup at a neutral site. Heaven forbid Saban actually has to play on someone else's home field. DeAndre Francois looked like a solid first year QB last season. Jalen Hurts on the other hand looked like a dynamic runner but throwing the ball was an issue. Yes, 'Bama reload every year, blah blah blah. So do the 'Noles. I'm excited for this game as it should be much better then the last few kickoff games. I got the 'Noles giving Saban two (!) losses in a row. FSU: 27--Bama: 24
Seeberg: Make no mistake about this game kids, Alabama is the better football team. There is a caveat, however. Both have sophomore star-in-the-making QBs hoping to take a big leap forward this season. Both lost a truckload of talent to the NFL. However, Jalen Hurts is the less-skilled of the two QBs and he is forced to learn a new, NFL-complicated offense. If this game were in about week 6 or later, it would be at least a two-possession win for the Tide, but right now, JUST right now, I trust the Seminoles a tad more. FSU: 27--Bama: 20
West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Virginia Tech Hokies
Draper: And now we come to the 'oh yeah, there's other games happening' portion. The crazy coach often comes out the victor Harbaugh, Saban, Fisher, Dabo, etc. and they don't get much crazier that Dana Holgorson. West Virginia will come out trying to drop a hundo but the lunch pail defense will prevent that....but not enough to win. Burn those couches as WVU gets an early jump on that 8-4 record (don't worry Hokies, you'll get there too) WVU: 48--VT: 38
Hoying: Is it mid-October yet? No? Then I don't see West Virginia's annual slide starting anytime soon. WVU: 44--VT: 31
Schweinfurth: I don't know what to think of this game. I saw some pundits picking Virginia Tech as a sleeper (sounds like basketball). Bud Foster can give teams nightmares but I don't think VaTech has the offense to keep up. WVU: 45--VT: 35
Seeberg: Despite Bud Foster still being at the defensive helm for the Hokies, this isn't your older brother's Frank Beamer Va Tech team. They can score it, and score it relatively often. Unfortunately, recruiting is down in Blacksburg and Foster isn't getting the premium talent he had during Beamer Ball's heyday. Meanwhile, West Virginia is getting offensive talent from everywhere...and scoring was never really an issue there anyhow. Expect the antithesis of the UM-Fla game (read: actually fun to watch) with the Mountaineers pulling away late. WVU: 48--VT: 33
THE Ohio State Buckeyes @ Indiana Hoosiers
Draper: I'm really excited about this year's Buckeye squad, particularly under center. I truly believe that having actual live QB Coaches and offensive coordinators will do wonders for JT. The Hoosiers simply won't be the same with one of their more successful coaches of the past 20 years now championing the OSU offense. The speed offense and short passing game is what JT's (and quite frankly, Urban's) offense is designed for, and Kevin Wilson runs it extremely well. Here's hoping Ryan Day improved JT's mechanics and we should see fireworks. Let's not forget how studly Mike Weber was last year not to mention some criminally under-utilized receiving corps talent. While so far I've only mentioned offense, the defense (particularly the line) should be the bread and butter of this team. Bosa, Hubbard, Sprinkle, Lewis, Jones, and Holmes will likely all be playing on Sundays in the near future. The front seven is loaded but there are a few question marks in the secondary. IU actual provides a really nice tune up for the Sooners. I don't anticipate this to be close. The Buckeyes are hungry after last year's embarrassment. Time to suit up. OSU: 59--IU: 10
Hoying: So, what do you do if you're Indiana? What is there to do when your offensive wizard of a coach is chased out after restoring your program to a semblance of respectability? Come roaring back with a new defensive identity. Unfortunately, it probably won't matter when the team you're facing has picked up that offensive wizard to call plays for them. The Buckeye O, while more or less effective over the last two seasons, has slowed a bit since JT's sensational freshman campaign, and their championship chances will largely rest on his development over his final year under Coach Wilson's steady hand. Having some competent receivers might not be a bad idea, either. OSU: 52--IU: 24
Schweinfurth: So many questions coming into this game: What will the offense look like? Can J.T. complete an intermediate pass? Can the receivers get open down field? What will the secondary look like? Can a Buckeye kicker make a damn field goal? Will there be a kickoff out of bounds in this game? (The answer to the last one is yes). The addition of Kevin Wilson and Ryan Day to the offensive staff can't be overlooked. It's been 2 years since J.T. had an actual QB coach and his mechanics and reads should be much better. I am worried about rotating 6 receivers. It almost sounds like the coaching staff is saying, "We don't know who is going to step up so everyone plays." The D-line play will be fun to watch. Schiano changed up the defensive front a bit so expect more sacks and domination up front. Ohio State will win this game, but we really need some of those questions answered. OSU: 49--IU: 28
Seeberg: Okay, I saved the jubilation for here, but COLLEGE FOOTBALL IS (INSERT FAVORITE EXPLETIVE OR STRING OF EXPLETIVES HERE) BACK!!! Despite the name on the opponent's jersey (and the laughable resume that accompanies it) this is quite the intriguing matchup. The Hoosiers offense has given the Buckeyes fits in recent years, keeping games close despite a wide talent disparity between the two programs except, somehow, at running back where Hoosier alum Tevin Coleman is currently running amok in the NFL akin to Zeke. However, the alleged mastermind of said offense now works for the scarlet and gray. Oops. Yes the Buckeyes have a lot of weaknesses, like a secondary made up of...yeah, if you're reading this you don't know either. But the front 4/6/19 studs that rotate in and out will wreak havoc upon opposing QBs so even if receivers are getting open they won't have the time to find them. I expect a bit of rust, a bit of adrenaline, and, most importantly, a dominant OL and DL. With those two pieces, everything else has a way of *cough 2014 cough* falling into place. Enjoy everyone, Buckeye football is upon us again! OSU: 45--IU: 17
Upset Special
Draper: App State over Georgia
Hoying: Rutgers over Washington
Schweinfurth: Georgia Tech over Tenn
Seeberg: Youngstown State over Pitt
Michigan Wolverines vs. Florida Gators
Draper: Well, this game is my personal hell. No clue what to expect here. Michigan came out firing on all cylinders last year but all those studs are in the NFL now. I truly believe they are supremely overrated....but...Florida seems to be the definition of mediocrity this year (and the recent past). I don't think the Wolverines can make a statement for the CFP this year, they do have a returning QB who was pretty good last year and a coach that just seems to get results (maybe because his players are scared he'll eat them). I'll lean Michigan just barely as their uniforms blind the Gators. UM: 24--UF: 20
Hoying: I wish I could write something intelligent about this game but Michigan refuses to release their roster and Florida won't name a starting QB. So I'll have to say something mindless instead. Did you see those new uniforms that the Maize and...well, Maize are wearing this Saturday? On the positive side, I don't think they'll burn out my eyes like UM's awful yellow-on-yellow b-ball jerseys, but this one's going to be ugly. And it could be a blowout, too. UM: 20--UF: 10
Schweinfurth: The headline for this game should be "Have you seen what TTUN is wearing?" This could be one of the worst uniforms ever (and I bet they break them out against the Buckeyes too). I really don't know what to expect from either team. Florida is suspending everyone and TTUN lost a ton of talent last year. Don't let Harbooger fool you, Speight will start and lead the offense to a one score win, making TTUN even more overrated than they already are. UM: 21--UF: 17
Seeberg: Ugh, this is the college football equivalent of the Mayweather-McGregor fight where I hoped the pay-per-view cut out completely and both guys lost because neither got paid (admit it, you would've laughed your arse off if that happened). At any rate, TTUN rolls their uniforms in cat urine and trots down south to take on the Gators. I don't expect it to be a particularly pretty matchup as the Wolverines are replacing about as many starters as OSU was last year while Florida is, well, Florida: Very good defense, middling offense, expectations always just a notch or two above any realistic outcomes. Malik Zaire actually gives them a credible QB threat...if he starts over highly touted freshman Feleipe Franks. Either way there won't be a lot of points, which is just how both teams prefer it. In crunch time, I have to go with a proven commodity at QB and Speight makes just enough plays to, sadly, pull it out for the maize and more maize. UM: 20--UF: 16
Florida State Seminoles vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Draper: Bama has been starting with a big boy for the past few years (USC, PSU, etc.), but this is a real challenge. The Noles are primed to make a run this year, but it can come crashing down (sort of) in week 1. Honestly, this game is a perfect scenario for both teams. The winner vaults to number 1 and is a prohibitive favorite for the playoff and the loser...is still right there in the running. I wonder what kind of strides DeAndre Francois and the Noles have made this offseason. Beating last year's UM team in the Orange Bowl was a nice feather in their cap, but Bama is a juggernaut that seems to be unstoppable (unless your name is Dabo). Definitely a little heart in this pick, but I'll call for the upset. Bama is a factory, but they have to run a little lower on talent when their roster is playing on Sundays, right...RIGHT!?! Either way, I just hope it's not the traditional early season stomp by the Tide. Go Noles! FSU: 31--Bama: 27
Hoying: The other day, I was listening to the good people at 97.1 The Fan try to list their top coaches of college football today. After the obvious top two (Nick and Urban), they filled out the second tier with Chris Petersen and Dabo Swinney, notably placing Jimbo Fisher somewhere down the line. It's hard to argue with recent results, with Clemson going to 2 straight national championships and claiming a win over Alabama. Florida State now has a golden opportunity to make a statement and regain their status as standard-bearer for the ACC. Can they do it? Probably not. Alabama has shown no signs of slowing down, they excel on the big stage, and they are pissed after gagging away a possible second straight national title. Florida State has lost the bulk of their receiving corps and their dynamic running back, Dalvin Cook. The good news for the Noles is that nobody on the committee will hold this loss against them (just don't get wrecked by 46 like USC did last year). FSU: 24--Bama: 31
Schweinfurth: Oh look, Bama playing a marquee matchup at a neutral site. Heaven forbid Saban actually has to play on someone else's home field. DeAndre Francois looked like a solid first year QB last season. Jalen Hurts on the other hand looked like a dynamic runner but throwing the ball was an issue. Yes, 'Bama reload every year, blah blah blah. So do the 'Noles. I'm excited for this game as it should be much better then the last few kickoff games. I got the 'Noles giving Saban two (!) losses in a row. FSU: 27--Bama: 24
Seeberg: Make no mistake about this game kids, Alabama is the better football team. There is a caveat, however. Both have sophomore star-in-the-making QBs hoping to take a big leap forward this season. Both lost a truckload of talent to the NFL. However, Jalen Hurts is the less-skilled of the two QBs and he is forced to learn a new, NFL-complicated offense. If this game were in about week 6 or later, it would be at least a two-possession win for the Tide, but right now, JUST right now, I trust the Seminoles a tad more. FSU: 27--Bama: 20
West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Virginia Tech Hokies
Draper: And now we come to the 'oh yeah, there's other games happening' portion. The crazy coach often comes out the victor Harbaugh, Saban, Fisher, Dabo, etc. and they don't get much crazier that Dana Holgorson. West Virginia will come out trying to drop a hundo but the lunch pail defense will prevent that....but not enough to win. Burn those couches as WVU gets an early jump on that 8-4 record (don't worry Hokies, you'll get there too) WVU: 48--VT: 38
Hoying: Is it mid-October yet? No? Then I don't see West Virginia's annual slide starting anytime soon. WVU: 44--VT: 31
Schweinfurth: I don't know what to think of this game. I saw some pundits picking Virginia Tech as a sleeper (sounds like basketball). Bud Foster can give teams nightmares but I don't think VaTech has the offense to keep up. WVU: 45--VT: 35
Seeberg: Despite Bud Foster still being at the defensive helm for the Hokies, this isn't your older brother's Frank Beamer Va Tech team. They can score it, and score it relatively often. Unfortunately, recruiting is down in Blacksburg and Foster isn't getting the premium talent he had during Beamer Ball's heyday. Meanwhile, West Virginia is getting offensive talent from everywhere...and scoring was never really an issue there anyhow. Expect the antithesis of the UM-Fla game (read: actually fun to watch) with the Mountaineers pulling away late. WVU: 48--VT: 33
THE Ohio State Buckeyes @ Indiana Hoosiers
Draper: I'm really excited about this year's Buckeye squad, particularly under center. I truly believe that having actual live QB Coaches and offensive coordinators will do wonders for JT. The Hoosiers simply won't be the same with one of their more successful coaches of the past 20 years now championing the OSU offense. The speed offense and short passing game is what JT's (and quite frankly, Urban's) offense is designed for, and Kevin Wilson runs it extremely well. Here's hoping Ryan Day improved JT's mechanics and we should see fireworks. Let's not forget how studly Mike Weber was last year not to mention some criminally under-utilized receiving corps talent. While so far I've only mentioned offense, the defense (particularly the line) should be the bread and butter of this team. Bosa, Hubbard, Sprinkle, Lewis, Jones, and Holmes will likely all be playing on Sundays in the near future. The front seven is loaded but there are a few question marks in the secondary. IU actual provides a really nice tune up for the Sooners. I don't anticipate this to be close. The Buckeyes are hungry after last year's embarrassment. Time to suit up. OSU: 59--IU: 10
Hoying: So, what do you do if you're Indiana? What is there to do when your offensive wizard of a coach is chased out after restoring your program to a semblance of respectability? Come roaring back with a new defensive identity. Unfortunately, it probably won't matter when the team you're facing has picked up that offensive wizard to call plays for them. The Buckeye O, while more or less effective over the last two seasons, has slowed a bit since JT's sensational freshman campaign, and their championship chances will largely rest on his development over his final year under Coach Wilson's steady hand. Having some competent receivers might not be a bad idea, either. OSU: 52--IU: 24
Schweinfurth: So many questions coming into this game: What will the offense look like? Can J.T. complete an intermediate pass? Can the receivers get open down field? What will the secondary look like? Can a Buckeye kicker make a damn field goal? Will there be a kickoff out of bounds in this game? (The answer to the last one is yes). The addition of Kevin Wilson and Ryan Day to the offensive staff can't be overlooked. It's been 2 years since J.T. had an actual QB coach and his mechanics and reads should be much better. I am worried about rotating 6 receivers. It almost sounds like the coaching staff is saying, "We don't know who is going to step up so everyone plays." The D-line play will be fun to watch. Schiano changed up the defensive front a bit so expect more sacks and domination up front. Ohio State will win this game, but we really need some of those questions answered. OSU: 49--IU: 28
Seeberg: Okay, I saved the jubilation for here, but COLLEGE FOOTBALL IS (INSERT FAVORITE EXPLETIVE OR STRING OF EXPLETIVES HERE) BACK!!! Despite the name on the opponent's jersey (and the laughable resume that accompanies it) this is quite the intriguing matchup. The Hoosiers offense has given the Buckeyes fits in recent years, keeping games close despite a wide talent disparity between the two programs except, somehow, at running back where Hoosier alum Tevin Coleman is currently running amok in the NFL akin to Zeke. However, the alleged mastermind of said offense now works for the scarlet and gray. Oops. Yes the Buckeyes have a lot of weaknesses, like a secondary made up of...yeah, if you're reading this you don't know either. But the front 4/6/19 studs that rotate in and out will wreak havoc upon opposing QBs so even if receivers are getting open they won't have the time to find them. I expect a bit of rust, a bit of adrenaline, and, most importantly, a dominant OL and DL. With those two pieces, everything else has a way of *cough 2014 cough* falling into place. Enjoy everyone, Buckeye football is upon us again! OSU: 45--IU: 17
Upset Special
Draper: App State over Georgia
Hoying: Rutgers over Washington
Schweinfurth: Georgia Tech over Tenn
Seeberg: Youngstown State over Pitt
Friday, December 30, 2016
Merry New Year! - Pick Six
Final Regular Season Standings
1) Hoying 46-17 (4-9 upset)
2) Schweinfurth 40-18 (6-6 upset)
3) Draper 43-20 (4-9 upset)
4) Seeberg 42-21 (4-9 upset)
Urb lift us up where we belong...where the Buckeyes fly, over mountains high...on the way to Phoenix and then hopefully Tampa. That's right, Ohio State is back in the playoff, which means people might actually watch it this year, even though it's on New Year's Eve again (thank you NFL). Whet your appetite with a little Orange zest the night before, then ring in 2017 basking in another Buckeye playoff victory, or go to bed early should the unthinkable happen.
Orange Bowl: Michigan Wolverines vs. Florida State Seminoles
Draper: These two teams entered the year with preseason National Championship hype, but "stumble" into the Orange Bowl. Removing the name of the bowl, I don't think many people would be able to distinguish this game from a playoff matchup. FSU is clicking offensively at the right time with Dalvin Cook remembering how to play football and Deondre Francois's seemingly indestructible nature on display. The Wolverines limp in after losing to the Bucks in an all timer...but do they have enough left? I have a feeling TTUN will feel sorry for themselves and the "refs" killing their championship hopes whereas FSU believes this is a stepping stone. The loss of Derwin James for the playoff game is huge for the embattled Nole secondary, but the defense has stepped up against mediocre offenses (see: Michigan). The Wolverine's D is fantastic but will they care enough to play their best, I'm guessing (and hoping) no. Go Noles! UM: 20--FSU: 24
Hoying: Last year Captain Crazy invaded the Sunshine State and demolished Florida in the Citrus Bowl. Can he do it again to the Gators' younger brother? One of these teams has a world-class defense, and the other...does not. Florida State hasn't lacked for points (outside of a bizarre early season faceplant against Louisville), even steamrolling a tough Gator D, but Michigan provides a new type of challenge. Chris Wormley, Taco Charlton, Jourdan Lewis, Channing Stribling (and the rest) will blow past Dalvin Cook on the way to grinding the reconstructed remains of Deondre Francois back into gooey paste. UM: 31--FSU: 16
Schweinfurth: One of the funniest things I have heard in the lead up to this game is that the Seminole players want to infuriate Harbaugh. We all remember Harbaughplaycard/headsetspike.gif from The Game (I can't get enough of that and the subsequent flag). I would love to see 'Noles players trash talk directly at Harbaugh just to see what that meltdown would look like. Hint, it would be EPIC! But seriously, this game will be sack city. The defensive front seven for both teams are really good while the offensive lines are not. Against my better judgement I'm going to take TTUN only because the B1G has been scorching hot (outside of Indiana) this bowl season. UM: 17--FSU: 10
Seeberg: This game, like seemingly almost every New Years' Six big-game-around-January-1st bowl game features strength on strength (think Clemson O vs. OSU D, Washington O vs. Bama D, etc.) in FSU's offense against Michigan's D. Like so many of the other games, however, it is likely to be decided when the less touted squads are competing. I don't trust Michigan outside that horrible state very much, but I trust FSU's D even less. Harbaugh guides TTUN to their sixth 11-win season since 1906 (yes you read that right) while Urban, preparing for the Fiesta Bowl, and his Ohio State Buckeyes have 11 such seasons since 2002. Rofl. UM: 27--FSU: 17
Cotton Bowl: Western Michigan Broncos vs. Wisconsin Badgers
Draper: One team is at the biggest bowl game in their history and the other is facing a 'little sister of the poor'--see last year's Peach Bowl in which the Fighting Tom Herman's defeated the big bad Noles. The difference here is that Wisconsin didn't really believe their realistic expectations this year would supercede what actually happened. Wisky is punching above their class and will fight for a nice bowl win. P.J. Fleck will pull out all the stops to row the boat over the Badgers, but the team has not been tested all year. The Badgers are too much and the Broncos fail to get that elusive 3rd B1G win. WMU: 10 -- UW: 28
Hoying: Does Wisconsin want to be here? How much of the Badgers' stumbles in the B1G Championship can be attributed to Penn State's bull crap "five hundred!" offense and how much is a result of B1G coach of the year Paul Chryst losing focus? Is life really but a dream? I don't know the answers to those questions. I know this game looks a whole lot more like Georgia-Hawaii than Oklahoma-Boise State. I know Wisconsin shut down a much more talented LSU offense back in September. I know that no team ranked ahead of its opponent alphabetically this bowl season is later in the alphabet than Western Michigan. WMU: 13--UW: 24
Schweinfurth: How did we get a pre-season B1G game as a New Years' Six game? There is a reason the Group of 5 schools want to have their own playoff, it's because there is a pretty large talent gap. I don't know if the Broncos can handle the physicality that Wisconsin brings with them on both sides of the ball. Western Michigan's offense is enough to keep them in the game, but the Badgers can just grind teams into dust. WMU: 21--UW: 31
Seeberg: See above. Western Michigan can score it and score it often. Wisconsin doesn't really allow teams to score all that much...ever. But again it'll be Wisconsin's mediocre O versus Western Michigan's average-by-MAC-standards defense that will decide the game. Give Chryst a month to prepare for a ho-hum defense and Wisconsin should get out to a lead that they can sit on, regardless of the signal-caller (which is good, because both Badger QBs are hot garbage). Row the boat back to shore P.J., Broncos don't swim that well. WMU: 17--UW: 31
Rose Bowl: USC Trojans vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Draper: PSU has run the same offense each week and it inexplicably keeps working: go deep, chuck it, pray, TD. The Trojans have been on fire lately, but look at the competition: Pac 12 garbage (see bowl season--Congrats on Utah's big win over 6-7 Indiana...by 2). USC was exposed early on by teams that hit you in the mouth...and the Lions tend to do that. While the Trojans have better corners than Wisconsin, the Lions strategy of run Saquon followed by random bomb will be enough to take a very close and exciting Rose Bowl. USC: 24--PSU: 27
Hoying: At the risk of becoming political, this game has a sort of Donald Trump feel to it. You watch Penn State and you think, there's no way this team is going to keep winning. Their offense is built on taking crazy gambles and they just seem to be chucking it deep with no plan for what comes next. Yet they keep beating opponents that really, really seem like they shouldn't be losing to the Lions. Everyone keeps talking about USC being one of the hottest teams in the country as the season closed, and like Penn State, they did beat a playoff team, but I don't see Penn State's 9 game winning streak ending anytime soon. USC: 27--PSU: 34
Schweinfurth: Hey, remember that one top ten out of conference game USC played this year, yea that didn't go so well. It's amazing what a team can do once they start playing against PAC-12 defenses. I'm still not sold on Penn State, but you can't argue with the resume. Having Saquon Barkley in the backfield doesn't hurt either. I fully expect some more "500 football" that the Lions have been playing since the OSU game, but it works when you have tall, lanky receivers. USC: 17--PSU: 38
Schweinfurth: Hey, remember that one top ten out of conference game USC played this year, yea that didn't go so well. It's amazing what a team can do once they start playing against PAC-12 defenses. I'm still not sold on Penn State, but you can't argue with the resume. Having Saquon Barkley in the backfield doesn't hurt either. I fully expect some more "500 football" that the Lions have been playing since the OSU game, but it works when you have tall, lanky receivers. USC: 17--PSU: 38
Seeberg: Hey a home bowl game for USC, surprise surprise. Both of these teams are white hot- or at least they were before taking a month off. The Lions needed some inexplicably non-Urban coaching to squeak out a win against our Buckeyes, and USC is as talent-laden as Ohio State in many areas. The talking heads think USC could be in the playoff if it weren't, you know, for those pesky crooked numbers in the loss column. Maybe I'm a stubborn old man (my birthday was yesterday, after all), but I just refuse to believe Penn State is the fifth best team in the country. USC pulls away late. USC: 38--PSU: 24
Sugar Bowl: Auburn Tigers vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Draper: Does anyone care about this game? Seriously? Auburn? Oklahoma is known based on the DISTANT 3rd and 4th place Heisman finalists and video game numbers...but Auburn? I don't think I've seen a second of the Tigers this year...and I don't regret it. Oklahoma had preseason aspirations of the Championship, but those were squelched early by the Cougs and Bucks. As of now, they are happy where they are with a Big 12 title and an overall nice season. Auburn finished tied for 2nd in their own division (3 conference games behind first). I do know that the Sooners can score in bunches and I think they'll enjoy being here so Big Game Bob might not fart it away. Aub: 34--OU: 45
Hoying: Every year there's one eminently forgettable New Year's Six game, and welcome to the club, 2017 Sugar Bowl! Outside of Alabama, nobody cares about the SEC this year, either because they're all so mediocre, or they're all just so good that they've beaten each other down into obscurity. This game should tell us a lot about which is true. The Sooners are the only team with TWO (questionable) Heisman finalists, and they'll need all their weapons to navigate a stingy Auburn defense. No word yet on how basic (or acidic) the Tigers are. Baker Mayfield finally gets the big-game monkey off his back (no, not Bob Stoops) and the Sooners finish with a win. Aub: 31--OU: 34
Schweinfurth: I have no respect for any SEC team outside of Alabama this year. As of this writing the SEC is 1-4 in bowl matchups (the pairings for the bowls usually favor the SEC too). Auburn has a decent defense but that offense? Not good. Deedee Westbrook is the real deal and a matchup nightmare. Big Game Bob takes the night off and Big Game Winning Bob actually shows up this year. This will be over quick. Aub: 10--OU: 42
Seeberg: So Colorado (#10- 3 losses) and Oklahoma State (#12- 3 losses) are currently playing in the Alamo Bowl, yet Auburn (#14- 4 losses) gets a New Years' Six invitation? Seems fishy SEC-y to me. I assume the South was feared to rise up again and fight the Union had a second SEC team not been invited to the party. In any event, it's strength on strength again. Auburn does boast a good D that strangled Clemson and a decent rushing attack, but the Sooners O is just on fire. Auburn's offense, meanwhile, is decidedly one-dimensional, and even Big 12 teams can stop an offense like that on occasion. Expect Mayfield, Perine, Westbrook and Co. to do just enough to give the SEC's second best team a whopping- and hilarious- five losses. Aub: 34--OU: 38
Peach Bowl: Washington Huskies vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Draper: The Huskies have the athletes and playmakers to hang with the Tide and likely beat them....in 7 on 7. The biggest discrepancy is the line play. Bama has a MASSIVE advantage over everyone in the country with the big uglies on both sides (especially Jonathan Allen). Washington's playmakers on the perimeter are special, but Browning tends to shrivel up in big games. The pressure of the Bama defense is simply too much to ignore. Washington matchups up with most teams in the country but not Bama. Expect the Huskies to throw everything on the table early, but the slow inexorable crushing the Saban teams exert will be too much. UW: 10--Bama: 24
Draper: The Huskies have the athletes and playmakers to hang with the Tide and likely beat them....in 7 on 7. The biggest discrepancy is the line play. Bama has a MASSIVE advantage over everyone in the country with the big uglies on both sides (especially Jonathan Allen). Washington's playmakers on the perimeter are special, but Browning tends to shrivel up in big games. The pressure of the Bama defense is simply too much to ignore. Washington matchups up with most teams in the country but not Bama. Expect the Huskies to throw everything on the table early, but the slow inexorable crushing the Saban teams exert will be too much. UW: 10--Bama: 24
Hoying: Ten years ago, I was one of a few (editor's note: as was Draper) who picked Boise State to upset heavily favored Oklahoma , and a little-known coach named Chris Petersen engineered arguably the most memorable upset of the BCS era (alongside Ohio State - Miami). Now the stage is reset. Can lightning strike twice? Alabama has been the team of seemingly no weakness this season. So, no. Just no. Expect Washington to pull out all the stops as they must realize they can't beat Alabama going strength-on-strength, but short of a lot of lucky breaks all in one direction, this one won't be close. UW: 13--Ala: 30
Schweinfurth: What do we really know about Alabama? They beat a USC team that looked lost in week one and then rolled (no pun intended) through a very weak SEC. Do I believe that the Tide is the top team in the country, yes I do. Do I think they are unbeatable? Not at all. Look at their offense, it is very one dimensional. Shutting down the run game and making Hurts throw the ball is the way to go. Washington has a decent enough pass defense to cause issues if Bama has to throw the ball. Chris Petersen always has a trick up his sleeve in games like these (just ask Oklahoma and TCU) even if he doesn't use it. This game will test Bama and will be closer than the experts think. How will the Tide respond to a true test? We are about to find out. UW: 21--Ala: 24
Seeberg: Hey looky here, strength on strength...again. Washington can score it on O...about as well as Bama scores it on D. Unfortunately for the Huskies, the PAC-12 plays as little D as any conference this side of the Big 12. I don't expect a blowout, but I do expect Bama to wear down the U-dub defense in the second half and, sigh, win, sigh, again...SIGH. UW: 20--Ala: 34
Fiesta Bowl: THE Ohio State University Buckeyes vs. Clemson Tigers
Draper: Alone with the Orange Bowl, this has to be among the best matchups of the year. Buckeye Nation needs to realize that the Buckeyes really have no business being in the playoff with the amount of talent that left for the NFL (and is DOMINATING). This is the youngest team in the NCAA...and they're 2 games from winning it all. That is a simply incredible inexplicable job done in recruiting and coaching. Clemson is nearing the end of their reign at the top (I think) but this team is probably Dabo's best. This game will feature the strength of the Tigers offense vs. the strength of the Buckeyes defense. I think many points will be scored as JT will have a much better game throwing the rock than expected (no Jourdan Lewis on the other side) and the Buckeyes will be able to matriculate the ball down the field, but Deshaun Watson is no slouch and will make things happen for Clemson. The matchup to watch will be Mike Williams vs. Marcus Lattimore on the perimeter as well as the Buckeyes ability to get pressure and force Watson into turnovers. Expect a close game down to the wire but Meyer vs. Dabo? C'mon man. BUUUUUUUCKS! OSU: 38--Clemson: 34
Hoying: The 2014 Orange Bowl may have been inconsequential overall, but it was the biggest gut-punch loss I had seen since 2005 Texas (and I had been in attendance at the immediately prior Ohio State / Michigan State debacle). The Buckeyes overcame a horrible defensive performance to build a 9 point lead and seize all the momentum. Then Philly Brown muffed a punt and the game (and Braxton Miller's joints) fell apart. A sad final start for one of Ohio State's all-time greats behind center. Fast forward to this year. The Buckeyes, no longer an offensive juggernaut, have returned to their stifling defenses reminiscent of the Tressel era in result if not in scheme. Mike Williams is good, but he's no Sammy Watkins. JT Barrett can't quite run like Braxton, but nobody takes care of the ball better. Mike Weber isn't quite El Guapo yet, but he's on his way. And most importantly, Deshaun Watson has ball control issues. And he's going against Malik Hooker and company. If the Silver Bullets can keep up the heat, expect to see the Buckeyes keep their perfect playoff record intact (at least for now). OSU: 31--Clem: 27
Schweinfurth: Fun fact, Urban Meyer is 10-2 in bowl games. Those two losses are Lloyd Carr's last game and with a very beat up team (and awful defense) against Clemson. Urban can get his teams up for these games. Look, Clemson is going to put some points up. They have a very dynamic offense. Remember that the last time Clemson talked trash about a QB, Lamar Jackson went for 400+ yards and the Tigers barely escaped. Watson has a tendency to throw the ball up for grabs. Bad news against this defense. Hooker and company will be licking their chops if Watson gets careless. JT and the receivers (and Isaiah Prince) have been working out the kinks over last month. Let's see if it pans out. Time for some revenge! GO BUCKS!!! OSU: 35--Clem: 31
Seeberg: Ah yes, the main event before the main event. And once again, strength on strength. Clemson can score it, both running and passing. OSU can pick it and score better than anybody. I'm not worried about the silver bullets. Watson will make a play or two with his legs and a play or two with his arm, but the BIG play will not be consistent for the Tigers- at least not as reliable as to which they are accustomed. I am, however, concerned with the Buckeye offense that looked flat-out impotent for very large stretches against both teams from up north and for a half against Penn State and Wisconsin. I don't think Clemson's D is quite as good as any of those units, but it's plenty good enough to cause havoc. J.T. cannot be content to just take care of the ball every time. Plays must be made. SOMEBODY not named Curtis Samuel must get separation. Weber and Samuel, combined, MUST get at least 30 carries. If Urban game plans to his strengths (something he is phenomenal at) and then sticks to them in crunch time instead of just calling the QB run constantly (something he is lousy at) then it will be onto the national title game again. Braxton, ye shall be avenged. OSU: 35--Clem: 27
Sunday, December 11, 2016
The Committee Got It Right...Again
Not everyone who writes about college football is as brilliant as the prescient minds here at Let's Go Bucks! For the second straight year, your favorite prognosticators predicted the playoff field exactly correctly. And other than flipping Ohio State and Clemson at #2 and #3, we would have chosen the exact same field ourselves.
But not everybody out there agrees with us. Take the talking heads at ESPN. Out of the 20 polled, all 20 agreed to put Alabama at #1 and Clemson somewhere 2 - 4, but the consensus ended there. 17 had Washington, 15 had Ohio State in, 7 had Penn State, and 1 had, well, you'll have to excuse Desmond.
You might notice that nobody had the Big 12 anywhere near the playoff. Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby sure noticed, and while he didn't go all Art Briles and accuse the committee of putting in teams based on brand name alone, he feigned some confusion about why the committee picked the teams it did (I hope he's feigning; I'd hate to throw him in with Desmond). After all, Ohio State didn't win their conference, and Washington scheduled three wet paper sacks as their non-conference opponents. How will Herman and the 'Horns ever redeem the Big 12's honor when they can't predict what the committee wants?
The answer is quite simple. The committee wants the four best teams. How do you determine the four best teams? Look at the teams with the best wins against the best opponents, and the fewest losses.
That's it.
Somehow, in the last two years, too many people (including yours truly) lost the forest for the trees. We saw the committee's tiebreaker criteria and treated them like prerequisites:
On their faces, no. You are your record, after all, and Clemson, Washington, and Ohio State each have only 1 loss, while Penn State has 2. This isn't Major League Baseball; every loss in college football is devastating when you only play 12 - 13 games a year. But not all wins and losses are created equal (the boat can only row so far, Broncos). Let's look at each team's wins, from most to least impressive.
Best four wins:
For Clemson: @Florida State, Louisville, @Auburn, Virginia Tech
For Ohio State: Michigan, @Oklahoma, @Wisconsin, Nebraska
For Washington: Colorado, Stanford, @Utah, @Washington State
For Penn State: Ohio State, Wisconsin, Temple, Iowa
Ohio State is leading the way, with Clemson following close behind. Penn State's not doing much to close the gap so far. They have the best overall win, to be sure, but no good road wins, and their second best win is a pale shadow of Ohio State's third. It's never a good thing when your quality nonconference win is Temple. Washington doesn't have any quality nonconference wins, but they do have four wins over Pac-12 teams with 4 or fewer losses.
Next best four wins:
For Clemson: @Georgia Tech, vs. Troy, @Wake Forest, @Boston College
For Ohio State: Tulsa, @Maryland, Northwestern, Indiana
For Washington: Idaho, @California, @Arizona State, @Oregon
For Penn State: Minnesota, @Indiana, Maryland, Michigan State
The only separation here is Washington fading fast. No bowl-bound Power 5 vanquished foes in this tier. But it's not like Penn State's slate is moving the needle either.
Remaining wins:
For Clemson: NC State, South Carolina, Syracuse, South Carolina State
For Ohio State: @Michigan State, Bowling Green, Rutgers
For Washington: Oregon State, @Arizona, Rutgers, Portland State
For Penn State: @Purdue, Kent State, Rutgers
My, my, how will Ohio State and Penn State compete without that 12th win over an FCS team? Clemson gets a point here for a win over bowl-bound NC State and a real live SEC opponent in South Carolina, and for not playing Rutgers.
And now, the losses:
For Clemson: @Pittsburgh
For Ohio State: @Penn State
For Washington: vs. USC
For Penn State: @Michigan, @Pittsburgh
So, by pure quality of wins-and-losses resume, the order seems to be something like this:
Ohio State > Clemson (better wins and better loss)
Clemson >>> Washington (much better wins)
Washington >> Penn State (1 loss vs. 2 and similar enough wins)
Ohio State and Clemson are clearly ahead of the pack. Washington and Penn State aren't "similar" to Ohio State and Clemson, so no tiebreaker is going to knock them out of being #2 and #3 in some order. Penn State would have the strength of schedule tiebreaker over Washington, but again, their resumes aren't similar enough for the tiebreakers to kick in.
So, Bob Bowlsby, what's a team to take away from the committee's decision this year?
DON'T LOSE. IF YOU MUST LOSE, DON'T LOSE TWICE.
An undefeated Power 5 team has never missed the playoffs. A Power 5 team with 2 losses has never made it in when sufficient undefeated and 1-loss teams were available. I don't see this trend reversing anytime soon.
Bad objections:
But what about Penn State's B1G title and head-to-head win over Ohio State?
As stated above, these are tiebreakers used to differentiate similar teams. Ohio State and Penn State do not have similar resumes. Also, Penn State has a conference title in large part because of their head-to-head win over Ohio State. Penn State didn't have to do anything that Ohio State didn't in order to lock down the title. They finished tied atop the East standing, and then Penn State beat a team at a neutral site that Ohio State already beat on the road. Making a big deal out of "Penn State, Big Ten Champions" is practically counting their head-to-head win over Ohio State twice.
Washington didn't challenge themselves out of conference and still made the playoff. Why should any Power 5 team bother to schedule a big name conference opponent? Isn't there an inconsistency in Washington making the playoffs when Baylor didn't in 2014?
First of all, Penn State, you didn't exactly go for the gold in scheduling Pitt. Yeah, Pitt's not Rutgers, but there's a reason nobody's particularly impressed with your loss. Yes, if Penn State schedules Villanova instead of Pitt, they probably go to the playoff instead of Washington. But by the same token, if Ohio State schedules Youngstown State instead of Oklahoma, maybe they don't make the playoff. Putting together a weak schedule is a bet that the other guys will schedule hard and lose. Putting together a strong schedule is a bet that the other guys will schedule easy and win. There's an element of gamesmanship to the process. But there's no way before the season starts to know whether the weak schedule strategy will burn you (2014 Baylor) or save you (2016 Washington). And there's no way before the season starts to know whether the big name you scheduled will be 1-11 California or 10-2 Oklahoma.
But not everybody out there agrees with us. Take the talking heads at ESPN. Out of the 20 polled, all 20 agreed to put Alabama at #1 and Clemson somewhere 2 - 4, but the consensus ended there. 17 had Washington, 15 had Ohio State in, 7 had Penn State, and 1 had, well, you'll have to excuse Desmond.
You might notice that nobody had the Big 12 anywhere near the playoff. Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby sure noticed, and while he didn't go all Art Briles and accuse the committee of putting in teams based on brand name alone, he feigned some confusion about why the committee picked the teams it did (I hope he's feigning; I'd hate to throw him in with Desmond). After all, Ohio State didn't win their conference, and Washington scheduled three wet paper sacks as their non-conference opponents. How will Herman and the 'Horns ever redeem the Big 12's honor when they can't predict what the committee wants?
The answer is quite simple. The committee wants the four best teams. How do you determine the four best teams? Look at the teams with the best wins against the best opponents, and the fewest losses.
That's it.
Somehow, in the last two years, too many people (including yours truly) lost the forest for the trees. We saw the committee's tiebreaker criteria and treated them like prerequisites:
- Championships won
- Strength of schedule
- Head-to-head competition
- Record against common opponents
What we forgot is that these are tiebreakers, used to distinguish "comparable" teams that "look similar."
Do Clemson, Ohio State, Washington, and Penn State look similar?
On their faces, no. You are your record, after all, and Clemson, Washington, and Ohio State each have only 1 loss, while Penn State has 2. This isn't Major League Baseball; every loss in college football is devastating when you only play 12 - 13 games a year. But not all wins and losses are created equal (the boat can only row so far, Broncos). Let's look at each team's wins, from most to least impressive.
Best four wins:
For Clemson: @Florida State, Louisville, @Auburn, Virginia Tech
For Ohio State: Michigan, @Oklahoma, @Wisconsin, Nebraska
For Washington: Colorado, Stanford, @Utah, @Washington State
For Penn State: Ohio State, Wisconsin, Temple, Iowa
Ohio State is leading the way, with Clemson following close behind. Penn State's not doing much to close the gap so far. They have the best overall win, to be sure, but no good road wins, and their second best win is a pale shadow of Ohio State's third. It's never a good thing when your quality nonconference win is Temple. Washington doesn't have any quality nonconference wins, but they do have four wins over Pac-12 teams with 4 or fewer losses.
Next best four wins:
For Clemson: @Georgia Tech, vs. Troy, @Wake Forest, @Boston College
For Ohio State: Tulsa, @Maryland, Northwestern, Indiana
For Washington: Idaho, @California, @Arizona State, @Oregon
For Penn State: Minnesota, @Indiana, Maryland, Michigan State
The only separation here is Washington fading fast. No bowl-bound Power 5 vanquished foes in this tier. But it's not like Penn State's slate is moving the needle either.
Remaining wins:
For Clemson: NC State, South Carolina, Syracuse, South Carolina State
For Ohio State: @Michigan State, Bowling Green, Rutgers
For Washington: Oregon State, @Arizona, Rutgers, Portland State
For Penn State: @Purdue, Kent State, Rutgers
My, my, how will Ohio State and Penn State compete without that 12th win over an FCS team? Clemson gets a point here for a win over bowl-bound NC State and a real live SEC opponent in South Carolina, and for not playing Rutgers.
And now, the losses:
For Clemson: @Pittsburgh
For Ohio State: @Penn State
For Washington: vs. USC
For Penn State: @Michigan, @Pittsburgh
So, by pure quality of wins-and-losses resume, the order seems to be something like this:
Ohio State > Clemson (better wins and better loss)
Clemson >>> Washington (much better wins)
Washington >> Penn State (1 loss vs. 2 and similar enough wins)
Ohio State and Clemson are clearly ahead of the pack. Washington and Penn State aren't "similar" to Ohio State and Clemson, so no tiebreaker is going to knock them out of being #2 and #3 in some order. Penn State would have the strength of schedule tiebreaker over Washington, but again, their resumes aren't similar enough for the tiebreakers to kick in.
So, Bob Bowlsby, what's a team to take away from the committee's decision this year?
DON'T LOSE. IF YOU MUST LOSE, DON'T LOSE TWICE.
An undefeated Power 5 team has never missed the playoffs. A Power 5 team with 2 losses has never made it in when sufficient undefeated and 1-loss teams were available. I don't see this trend reversing anytime soon.
Bad objections:
But what about Penn State's B1G title and head-to-head win over Ohio State?
As stated above, these are tiebreakers used to differentiate similar teams. Ohio State and Penn State do not have similar resumes. Also, Penn State has a conference title in large part because of their head-to-head win over Ohio State. Penn State didn't have to do anything that Ohio State didn't in order to lock down the title. They finished tied atop the East standing, and then Penn State beat a team at a neutral site that Ohio State already beat on the road. Making a big deal out of "Penn State, Big Ten Champions" is practically counting their head-to-head win over Ohio State twice.
Washington didn't challenge themselves out of conference and still made the playoff. Why should any Power 5 team bother to schedule a big name conference opponent? Isn't there an inconsistency in Washington making the playoffs when Baylor didn't in 2014?
First of all, Penn State, you didn't exactly go for the gold in scheduling Pitt. Yeah, Pitt's not Rutgers, but there's a reason nobody's particularly impressed with your loss. Yes, if Penn State schedules Villanova instead of Pitt, they probably go to the playoff instead of Washington. But by the same token, if Ohio State schedules Youngstown State instead of Oklahoma, maybe they don't make the playoff. Putting together a weak schedule is a bet that the other guys will schedule hard and lose. Putting together a strong schedule is a bet that the other guys will schedule easy and win. There's an element of gamesmanship to the process. But there's no way before the season starts to know whether the weak schedule strategy will burn you (2014 Baylor) or save you (2016 Washington). And there's no way before the season starts to know whether the big name you scheduled will be 1-11 California or 10-2 Oklahoma.
Monday, December 05, 2016
How the CFP SHOULD Look...and Why it Doesn't Look That Way
Well kids, another college football regular season (save Army vs. Navy) has come to an end. Lots of things happened that NOBODY saw coming (anyone have Michigan State at 4-8?), and our Buckeyes are once again in the playoff with a shot at a national title. We're already one for one, why not make it two for two?
The playoff is a very exclusive club. Just four of the 128 FBS are invited to play for a national championship. Seems like a paltry number, doesn't it?. For comparison's sake, 68 teams make the March Madness tournament out of 347 teams, or 19.6%, give or take. The FCS (sorry NCAA, but it's 1-AA, FCS just isn't catching on) has 24 of its 125 members in their football playoff, good for 19.2%. But the FBS is just 4/128, a measly 3.125%. So what gives? I'll get to that in a bit.
So instead of just four teams, let's suppose the playoff were 16 teams. Every conference champion gets in, six at-large teams fill in the field. First-round games are played at the higher seed's stadium. I will put the seeds next to the teams based on where I think they should/would be placed. Here's what that would look like:
AUTOMATIC BIDS (Conference Champions)
(1) Alabama- SEC
(7) Penn State- Big 10
(6) Oklahoma- Big 12
(4) Washington- PAC-12
(3) Clemson- ACC
(13) Temple- AAC
(15) Western Kentucky- Conference USA
(14) San Diego State- Mt. West
(16) Appalachian State- Sun Belt
(12) Western Michigan- MAC
AT-LARGE BIDS (six best non-conference champions- using current CFP rankings)
(2) Ohio State
(5) Michigan
(9) Wisconsin
(8) USC
(10) Colorado
(11) Florida State
So there's your field. Now let's look at the first round, the FIRST ROUND, you get Florida State at Oklahoma, Colorado at Penn State, Wisconsin at USC (basically a Rose Bowl), and maybe the best matchup to watch is that Western Michigan gets a shot at UM. Who wouldn't watch that? Can Donnell Pumphrey run rampant and lead SDSU to an upset of Clemson? Can Temple's staunch D shut down Washington? Definitely chances for the "group of 5" teams to pull an upset. After the first round, there are just seven playoff games left and we already have the "New Year's Six" plus the national title game anyways, so those bowl games all rotate through those rounds and then the final is still the national championship. It works seamlessly!
WHY IT WORKS:
1.) No More Whining- Be honest, read that list of teams above. Does ANYBODY think there is a team not in the field that would have even the slightest chance of winning four games against the rest of college football's elite? No shot. Everyone worthy now has their opportunity. (Disclaimer: The No More Whining, unfortunately, does not apply to post-game crying about officiating).
2.) You Can Have the Other Bowl Games Too!- On Friday, December 23rd, Ohio plays Troy in the Dollar General Bowl. On a typical Saturday, nobody watches that game not directly affiliated with either of those schools. But it's a bowl game, so you know we're watching, because after the bowls, college football is over! We already watch TONS of bowl games that have absolutely no bearing on even the top 25, let alone the national championship. All these cities/sponsors still get their influx of cash, the teams get their extra few weeks of practice for making a bowl game, so that portion of the system essentially remains unchanged.
3.) Money Money.....money- The CFP has generated massive ratings in its first two years of existence. Sure, a few first-round games won't be huge TV audiences (I'm looking at you, Bama vs. Appalachian State), but after the first round, all the matchups would be high-level clashes with everything still on the line. Compare that to the current system where Michigan is playing Florida State- two highly talented, potential national title contending teams- with literally a 0.0% chance of winning a national title. More eyeballs on the product=more money for everyone involved- and this is the key element nobody seems to comprehend given the ONLY reason the playoff doesn't look like this. It would work, and it would be profitable, but the powers that be are too short-sighted to change.
WHY IT ISN'T DONE THIS WAY:
1.) Money- More to come.
2.) Money- See above.
3.) Money- This is the first, last, and only reason the playoff doesn't already exist in the fashion in which I have presented. According to cliche, money makes the world go 'round. In this case, however, money is actually preventing progress. At present, the teams that make the national championship game play a grueling 15-game schedule: 12 regular season games, a conference title clash, and two playoff contests. This year's Buckeyes are an exception to that as they did not have to play in a conference championship, but generally 15 is the number. In the scenario laid out above, eight teams would have to play 15 games, another four would play 16, and two would play a whopping 17 games- and that will never happen for the NCAA to maintain its well-rehearsed facade of student-athletes, protecting the players, etc.
As a result, the regular season would have to be shortened by two games (or one game and remove conference championship games- dealer's choice) just like all other college football divisions with a 10-game regular season. Every conference would play two non-conference tilts and eight conference games across the board. Not a single athletic director would allow such a change, losing revenue from one or potentially even two regular season games. I mean, who doesn't want to see EVERY Big Ten team play at least one MAC opponent annually? Or how about the annual SEC vs. 1-AA weekend, doesn't that get your juices flowing? Not so much- but it lines the home team's pockets.
But would all teams actually take such a crushing financial loss? I'm not so certain. I truly believe that in the 16-game playoff I have laid out, the only teams that would be adversely affected from a monetary standpoint would be Power 5 teams that consistently do not make the playoffs (think Arizona, Rutgers, Kansas, etc.). The revenue generated by such a playoff would filter to all schools (just like it does at present), the top eight teams each year get an extra home game to make up that lost revenue, and group of 5 conference teams all get a piece of the pie from revenue sharing since every conference champion makes the playoff. Group of five teams rarely play significant out-of-conference home games anyway, so it is likely many would profit more from this setup than the current system, particularly if a team like, say Western Michigan, advanced. And let's be honest Buckeye Nation, watching the Broncos take down TTUN would likely be the best day of your life since former 1-AA Appalachian State went into the Big House and took them down nine years ago.
In short, the 16-game playoff benefits fans and smaller conference teams, maintains the status quo of the rest of the coveted bowl system, and may potentially generate even more cash for the "non-profit" NCAA, an organization that has had, at minimum, a $60 million surplus in each of the last four years. Will it happen? Absolutely not- the power five conferences are more likely to break away from the outmoded NCAA. So for now let's sit back, enjoy another still-appealing bowl season, and daydream about what could be.
The playoff is a very exclusive club. Just four of the 128 FBS are invited to play for a national championship. Seems like a paltry number, doesn't it?. For comparison's sake, 68 teams make the March Madness tournament out of 347 teams, or 19.6%, give or take. The FCS (sorry NCAA, but it's 1-AA, FCS just isn't catching on) has 24 of its 125 members in their football playoff, good for 19.2%. But the FBS is just 4/128, a measly 3.125%. So what gives? I'll get to that in a bit.
So instead of just four teams, let's suppose the playoff were 16 teams. Every conference champion gets in, six at-large teams fill in the field. First-round games are played at the higher seed's stadium. I will put the seeds next to the teams based on where I think they should/would be placed. Here's what that would look like:
AUTOMATIC BIDS (Conference Champions)
(1) Alabama- SEC
(7) Penn State- Big 10
(6) Oklahoma- Big 12
(4) Washington- PAC-12
(3) Clemson- ACC
(13) Temple- AAC
(15) Western Kentucky- Conference USA
(14) San Diego State- Mt. West
(16) Appalachian State- Sun Belt
(12) Western Michigan- MAC
AT-LARGE BIDS (six best non-conference champions- using current CFP rankings)
(2) Ohio State
(5) Michigan
(9) Wisconsin
(8) USC
(10) Colorado
(11) Florida State
So there's your field. Now let's look at the first round, the FIRST ROUND, you get Florida State at Oklahoma, Colorado at Penn State, Wisconsin at USC (basically a Rose Bowl), and maybe the best matchup to watch is that Western Michigan gets a shot at UM. Who wouldn't watch that? Can Donnell Pumphrey run rampant and lead SDSU to an upset of Clemson? Can Temple's staunch D shut down Washington? Definitely chances for the "group of 5" teams to pull an upset. After the first round, there are just seven playoff games left and we already have the "New Year's Six" plus the national title game anyways, so those bowl games all rotate through those rounds and then the final is still the national championship. It works seamlessly!
WHY IT WORKS:
1.) No More Whining- Be honest, read that list of teams above. Does ANYBODY think there is a team not in the field that would have even the slightest chance of winning four games against the rest of college football's elite? No shot. Everyone worthy now has their opportunity. (Disclaimer: The No More Whining, unfortunately, does not apply to post-game crying about officiating).
2.) You Can Have the Other Bowl Games Too!- On Friday, December 23rd, Ohio plays Troy in the Dollar General Bowl. On a typical Saturday, nobody watches that game not directly affiliated with either of those schools. But it's a bowl game, so you know we're watching, because after the bowls, college football is over! We already watch TONS of bowl games that have absolutely no bearing on even the top 25, let alone the national championship. All these cities/sponsors still get their influx of cash, the teams get their extra few weeks of practice for making a bowl game, so that portion of the system essentially remains unchanged.
3.) Money Money.....money- The CFP has generated massive ratings in its first two years of existence. Sure, a few first-round games won't be huge TV audiences (I'm looking at you, Bama vs. Appalachian State), but after the first round, all the matchups would be high-level clashes with everything still on the line. Compare that to the current system where Michigan is playing Florida State- two highly talented, potential national title contending teams- with literally a 0.0% chance of winning a national title. More eyeballs on the product=more money for everyone involved- and this is the key element nobody seems to comprehend given the ONLY reason the playoff doesn't look like this. It would work, and it would be profitable, but the powers that be are too short-sighted to change.
WHY IT ISN'T DONE THIS WAY:
1.) Money- More to come.
2.) Money- See above.
3.) Money- This is the first, last, and only reason the playoff doesn't already exist in the fashion in which I have presented. According to cliche, money makes the world go 'round. In this case, however, money is actually preventing progress. At present, the teams that make the national championship game play a grueling 15-game schedule: 12 regular season games, a conference title clash, and two playoff contests. This year's Buckeyes are an exception to that as they did not have to play in a conference championship, but generally 15 is the number. In the scenario laid out above, eight teams would have to play 15 games, another four would play 16, and two would play a whopping 17 games- and that will never happen for the NCAA to maintain its well-rehearsed facade of student-athletes, protecting the players, etc.
As a result, the regular season would have to be shortened by two games (or one game and remove conference championship games- dealer's choice) just like all other college football divisions with a 10-game regular season. Every conference would play two non-conference tilts and eight conference games across the board. Not a single athletic director would allow such a change, losing revenue from one or potentially even two regular season games. I mean, who doesn't want to see EVERY Big Ten team play at least one MAC opponent annually? Or how about the annual SEC vs. 1-AA weekend, doesn't that get your juices flowing? Not so much- but it lines the home team's pockets.
But would all teams actually take such a crushing financial loss? I'm not so certain. I truly believe that in the 16-game playoff I have laid out, the only teams that would be adversely affected from a monetary standpoint would be Power 5 teams that consistently do not make the playoffs (think Arizona, Rutgers, Kansas, etc.). The revenue generated by such a playoff would filter to all schools (just like it does at present), the top eight teams each year get an extra home game to make up that lost revenue, and group of 5 conference teams all get a piece of the pie from revenue sharing since every conference champion makes the playoff. Group of five teams rarely play significant out-of-conference home games anyway, so it is likely many would profit more from this setup than the current system, particularly if a team like, say Western Michigan, advanced. And let's be honest Buckeye Nation, watching the Broncos take down TTUN would likely be the best day of your life since former 1-AA Appalachian State went into the Big House and took them down nine years ago.
In short, the 16-game playoff benefits fans and smaller conference teams, maintains the status quo of the rest of the coveted bowl system, and may potentially generate even more cash for the "non-profit" NCAA, an organization that has had, at minimum, a $60 million surplus in each of the last four years. Will it happen? Absolutely not- the power five conferences are more likely to break away from the outmoded NCAA. So for now let's sit back, enjoy another still-appealing bowl season, and daydream about what could be.
Sunday, December 04, 2016
2016 Playoff Should Be / Will Be
The die is cast. At around 12:30 this afternoon, we'll learn the fate of our beloved Buckeyes and the other playoff contenders. While you wait, let your favorite predictors from Let's Go Bucks! tell you what what the final four should be, and will be.
SHOULD BE
Let's Go Bucks Index
1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Washington
Draper
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Ohio State
4. Washington
Hoying
1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Washington
Seeberg
1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Washington
WILL BE
Let's Go Bucks Index
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Ohio State
4. Washington
Draper:
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Ohio State
4. Washington
Hoying:
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Ohio State
4. Washington
Seeberg
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Ohio State
4. Washington
SHOULD BE
Let's Go Bucks Index
1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Washington
Draper
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Ohio State
4. Washington
Hoying
1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Washington
Seeberg
1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Washington
WILL BE
Let's Go Bucks Index
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Ohio State
4. Washington
Draper:
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Ohio State
4. Washington
Hoying:
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Ohio State
4. Washington
Seeberg
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Ohio State
4. Washington
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)