The word that may ruin college football

College football is a wonderful sport--the best sport. The passion, the rivalries, the loyalty, the pageantry: everything about it gets you excited for the fall.  One of the most important aspects is the importance of every game.  Each team lives on the razor's edge week in and week out knowing that their hopes and dreams can come to an end in the blink of an eye.  One misstep; one unfortunate bounce; one bad call; one outlier performance can take an all-time great team and make them a footnote (or vice versa)...or can it?

The introduction of the college football playoff in 2014 was designed to bring parity to what was considered an unfair game.  Prior to the BCS, a non-power 5 team exploding onto the national stage was impossible.  The bowl games were determined by conference tie-ins and the National Title was voted on without any ability for an outsider to crash the party. 

In 1998, the Bowl Championship Series was introduced to make a step in the direction of objectivity. While the biased human polls would remain a major components, (more) objective computer polls and strength of schedule entered into the equation to discover the top 2 and have them determine a champion on the field in the national championship.  We began to see the rise of a few non-power 5 contenders under this system (Marshall, Boise State, Hawaii, etc.), yet they never truly had a shot at the big prize.  While this was a nice step, it was constantly being tweaked to match the desires of the (biased) human voters when the onfield play didn't agree.  Another common criticism was that only 2 teams earned the right to play for the title, even if a third or fourth was just as deserving. 

In 2000, 1-loss FSU faced off with undefeated Oklahoma for the title in which to Sooners won a defensive struggle.  Controversy arose from 1-loss Miami (who beat FSU on a last second missed FG) and 1-loss Washington (who beat Miami in the first game of the season).  The Sooners weren't controversial, but their opponent was.

In 2003, 1- loss LSU defeated 1-loss Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl.  1-loss USC won the Orange Bowl and was declared the AP champion while LSU captured the crystal ball.  This year wasn't as controversial in the sense that all three main contenders entered with 1-loss.

2004 was filled with controversy as 5 teams finished the regular season undefeated.  While non-power 5 teams finished undefeated in previous years, they had horrible schedules and had no real claim to be the top team in the land.  Now, USC, Oklahoma, Auburn, Utah, and Boise State (who had been climbing the national perception polls for years) were all desirous of a shot at the title.  Once again, controversy wasn't new to the BCS (5 1-loss teams were vying in the 2003), but with 1-loss, the pundits could always play the 'yeah, but...' card.  You could have been here....if only you didn't lose. 2004 had the undefeated SEC champion left out (imagine if that happened today!).  This was the first time since the creation of the BCS that a team with a major conference schedule literally did all they could and was not given a chance.

2012 saw one of the more egregious errors of the BCS system that leads to our current predicament.  The title was between undefeated LSU and 1-loss Alabama...who lost at home in the regular season to, you guessed it, LSU.  The major problem was the lack of another undefeated contender.  Oklahoma State was the most deserving after finishing with 1-loss (a fluke against Iowa State on a Friday night after a tragic plane crash occurred with another Oklahoma State Cowboy team earlier in the day). Regardless, the team most harmed in this scenario was a team that is in the conference most tightly protected now: LSU.  Bama came at the king and missed.  Why did the second meeting matter more? Why was another meeting needed?

Fast-forward to 2014 with the implementation of the College Football Playoff.  4 teams to be selected by a committee of experts will face-off and determine a champion in the 'American way'--Settle it on the field.  What could go wrong?  No one would be 'left-out' in this new world!  Everything would be fair! But as we all know, no system is perfect.

How would this committee determine the 4? Herein lies the problem. Would they lean to the human polls and their inherent biases to the big name programs? Would they support the objectivity of the analytics and remove context? Would they focus on head-to-head? Would they support good wins, good losses? So many questions and so little transparency.  The charge to this committee would include a word that potentially threatens the tradition of the sport.

"For purposes of any four team playoff, the process will inevitably need to select the four best teams from among several with legitimate claims to participate."
From the CFP Committee Protocol: How to select the four best teams to compete for the College Football National Championship

The word is "best".  While the objectives of the committee were pure in the development of this (open) definition, they had incorporated a linchpin that may bring the whole system to its knees.  Why, you ask, would the objective of including the four 'best' teams be controversial on any level? Isn't that what we desire our champions to be? The best?  Let's circle back to the beginning; to what makes college football special: "Every. Game. Matters." All other sporting events include regular seasons (and playoffs for most) in which losses are a part of the game.  Not-so in college football.  Since the inception of the BCS, only 1 team has gone undefeated in a major conference and not had their shot.  Many smaller schools have been undefeated and not gotten the shot, but that persists in the playoff era (see UCF).  Now, to choose our champion, we have relegated the decision to a room of people whose charge is to choose the 'best'. 

Let's first begin with a discussion of the good parts of the playoff system.  2004 is unlikely to happen again.  Yes, there is the possibility that all 5 power-5 champions escape the regular season undefeated but this possibility is extremely remote in today's game.  Now, it is very unlikely that a deserving undefeated team is not given a shot (sorry UCF, but stay with me). On the other hand, we now have to choose among many (many) 1-2 loss teams with more-or-less equivalent resumes. That almost guarantees a team (or two) in the playoff that one can argue does not deserve their shot after a bad loss.  On top of that, the undefeated group of 5 are an after thought....why? The interpretation of 'best'.

The national media (aka ESPN) has heaped nothing but praise upon the committee for choosing the 'so-called best' teams and ignoring the 'most deserving' moniker, but this is nothing more than proliferating an already tired narrative.  LSU is great because they beat Alabama and conversely, Alabama is great because they lost to LSU.  This isn't college football. Here's the issue: if we truly want the best 4 teams, the 2019 playoff is almost assuredly LSU, OSU, Clemson, and Bama...REGARDLESS of the remainder of the season.  Why? Recruiting! If Minnesota runs the table, are they 'better' than Alabama? Almost certainly not.  In 2017, undefeated Wisconsin entered the B1G Championship Game at 4 in the CFP rankings.  Had they beaten the Buckeyes, would they have been 'better' than the 1-loss non division champion Crimson Tide? Of course not.  In fact, based on the committee charge/logic, why did that game matter? If Bama was 'one of the four best teams in the country', why did they need Wisconsin to lose? It's nonsensical! It's illogical! It's. not. college. football. 

The wording MUST be changed on the CFP committee's charge to choose the four most-deserving teams.  2019 Bama had their playoff game already, at home....and lost (just like in 2012).  Many teams don't get that shot once, let alone twice.  Here's the deal: once a team loses (in any conference) their resume for championship contention takes a monster hit, but the committee needs to look more objectively at the merits/resumes of the teams and not the name.  This becomes increasing difficult when the talking heads are touting the wonders of Alabama football before the final 0:00 hit on the clock.  CBS literally had a graphic on the screen arguing the case for Alabama's inclusion in the playoff without a divisional championship before the game had ended.  The rankings will come out Tuesday and it is almost a 100% guarantee that Alabama will be ranked ahead of Minnesota.  There is absolutely no reason that the Tide merit a ranking above the Gophers.  Minnesota has NO losses and their best win trumps ANYTHING Bama has done by a mile.  The committee will say 'Look, Alabama almost beat #1 (projected) LSU and would likely beat most teams on a neutral field'. Here's the problem: they didn't.

Now that I've gone off the rails an most definitely repeated myself many times, I need to sum up my 'old man yells at cloud' argument. What is college football? The tradition, the pageantry, the rivalries.  Why does beating Michigan every year feel just as sweet as the first time? Because we enhanced our resume? Because a solid win against a competent program gets OSU closer to the playoff? No.  Because knowing that you have exerted dominance over your foe and ruined their hopes for future glory means something.  Duke/UNC is a nice little college basketball rivalry, but why can't it rise to the level of the game? Because the loser gets another shot.  In The Game, the loser goes home, tail between their legs KNOWING that they had their shot at greatness, and fell short.  Not only that, the winner dances on the loser's grave on the way to bigger and better things.  In Duke/UNC, it's "we'll get you in the tournament..."

 In 2017, the Alabama Crimson Tide won the National Championship thus proving to most the committee was justified rewarding a non-division winner...my perception is completely reversed.  I find this proof of an egregious error. The Iron Bowl (and SEC West Division championship) went to Auburn, who then lost to Georgia in the SEC Championship.  Alabama had their playoff game....and lost.  Their playoffs started early.  Had they beaten Auburn and Georgia, they're the number 1 team by a mile!  But, the didn't.  Yet, they were rewarded by the committee with another shot and they took advantage (over the very Georgia team that beat their rival a few week's prior in an extra game the Tide avoided!). A year in which their best win prior to the playoff was over a 4-loss LSU team.  Did they have the talent? Were they one of the 'best' teams? Of course. Did they deserve a second chance when another charge of the committee is supposed to be rewarding conference champions? The answer is a resounding no. 

We continue to hear the clamoring for an 8-team playoff, but that dilutes the pool even more.  Now, the Bama's of the world can take a game or two off and still win the championship.  Then the glory of The Game may be relegated to 'Round 1'.  While some would love the opportunity to play it twice, that ruins the mystique.  You lose The Game, you're a loser for the next 364 days (or 2908 days and counting...but who's counting).  You don't get a do-over.  Make it right, committee.  Support those who have earned the right to be there.  By supporting the 'best', you might get 3 great games in the playoffs.  By supporting the most deserving, the wonder of the greatest regular season in sports will continue for years.

Week 11: How the Wests Were Won (Again)

Standings:
1.) Hoying 29-5 (4-6 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 28-6 (2-9 upset)
3.) Seeberg 26-8 (1-9 upset)
3.) Draper 26-8 (1-9 upset)

Forgive me for recycling a post name from five years ago. But once again we find ourselves in November and once again, the nation's two premier West divisions are up for grabs. As for the East, the SEC's was decided last week (see ya later, Florida Gator), and the B1G's not on the table for a couple more weeks. Five years ago...hmmm...what else happened that year...

Penn State Nittany Lions @ Minnesota Golden Gophers

Draper: Minny continues their quest to Row the Boat to Indy, but I fear this may be a serious stumbling block on that mission. There is a real chance that their best win is over.....South Dakota State? Probably not, but it's a possibility.  Blessed with a schedule that would make the SEC out of conference blush, the Gophers are riding high, but in come the Nittany Lions chugging along.  I've watched some PSU games this year and haven't been particularly impressed. Yes, they took down Michigan and looked great...early, at home, during a white-out (congrats on reaching .500!) and then all but blew it in the final quarter.  This is arguably the biggest game in Minnesota in years, but I don't think they have the horses.  The stadium will be rocking, but too much talent coming to town.  PSU: 28 -- Minn: 17

Hoying: All aboard the disrespekt train. The Gophers are getting no love from any corner: they're about a touchdown dogs at home, and they came in at a miserable #17 in the initial Playoff rankings (though a respectable #9 here at Let's Go Bucks!). And all this despite being undefeated and off to their best start since 1941, when they finished 8-0. All that being said, is this team actually good? Hard to say. They've righted the boat since starting the season with four ghastly wins against bad opponents, but recent blowouts over the likes of Illinois, Nebraska, Rutgers, and Maryland aren't going to move the needle. The running game is working quite nicely, but again, Illinois, Nebraska, Rutgers, and Maryland. Penn State, meanwhile, has been playing real actual teams, a fact not lost on the Playoff committee (though PSU should have been ranked ahead of Alabama as well). The Lions have another one of those nasty defenses that are all the rage in the B1G this year. The offense is good at best, but it won't matter against a Minnesota defense that, while improved, has had too many suspect performances this season. This is the biggest game for Minnesota in, like, forever, but they're going to be overwhelmed in this one. Enjoy that contact extension your squishy-soft backloaded schedule bought you, PJ. PSU: 30--Minn: 16

Schweinfurth: Good for the Row-Boaters, er, Gophers. They haven't been this relevant since Lawrance Maroney was running over defenses. Still, undefeated this late in the season, regardless of schedule, is something to be proud of. I just don't see it lasting past this week. Let's be honest, it would almost be funny to watch Minnesota go undefeated through the west and get trounced by OSU...but I enjoy breaking the kitty cat's hearts more. Kyle Clifford and D.J. Hamler should be all the Nittany Kitties need to win. I do think Minnesota hangs for at least a half. PSU: 31--Minn: 20

Seeberg: Does anybody trust the Gophers?  Well the committee certainly didn't given they're ranking below about a half-dozen teams with TWO losses.  Nonetheless, this weekend provides a massive stepping stone to get where they want to go.  Remember, our 2014 Buckeyes started at #16 in the initial rankings and wound up hoisting the golden lipstick.  However, I don't think the golden buck-tooths have the generational type of talent that the Buckeye Squad of half a decade ago possessed.  Penn State, meanwhile, has beaten a team or two with a pulse which has them at #4.  The Gophers have confidence, and a home game, which certainly gives them a puncher's chance.  If they were 6-2 and unranked I might even make them my upset pick.  But this is a ranked vs. ranked game and the Lions have too much firepower to drop this one.  Besides, we can't ruin another marquee OSU home game with a lousy B1G west upset just before it, right?  *Cough Wisconsin cough*.  Franklin's crew pulls away in the second half.  PSU: 38--Minn: 21

Louisiana State Tigers @ Alabama Crimson Tide

Draper: LSU has, arguably, the best resume in college football but the variability is off the charts.  Great wins over Auburn and Florida (both at home) a decent win at Texas that is quickly losing it's luster, as a steaming pile of doggy doo. Alabama, on the other hand, has....a steamy pile of doggy doo on their resume.  This was circled long ago as the Tiguhs season and it certainly holds true.  One thing about Nick Saban....he rarely loses big games.  While Bama has trucked the Little Sisters of the Poor on their schedule each week, the sheer talent is extremely strong.  Throw in a Tuscaloosa crowd (since they'll likely show up for this one), and it's going to be rough for Mr. Burrow.  LSU has been very good running the ball of late to complement the passing game.  While UF and Auburn have great D-lines, I'm not convinced their defensive secondary and linebacker play is up to snuff. Bama is...Bama.  If Tua plays, I expect a statement from the Tide reminding us to remember that the big elephant in the room is still around.  Jerry Jeudy and Tua keep the petal to the metal and the Tide roll....again.  LSU: 17 -- Bama: 30

Hoying: I made the mistake of picking LSU exactly once in the last seven years, all of which have seen Tide victories. The year of my mistake was 2015, which was also only time in the last seven years LSU was ranked ahead of Alabama for this matchup. In that game, LSU's "quarterback," Brandon Harris, completed 6 of 19 attempts, and noted Heisman lock-turned-fizzle Leonard Fournette rushed for 31 yards on 19 carries. I don't think that's going to happen this year, as (1) LSU has a decent QB for the first time since Matt Flynn, and (2) Bama's defense isn't quite a world-beater this year. It's still better than LSU's defense, though. Remember that Florida attack that did nothing but nothing against UGA? They hung up 28 on LSU, in Death Valley. This game may come down to Alabama's depth at QB. Tua isn't likely to be at 100%, and we saw in last year's SEC Championship what the Tide look like when he's hobbled. And there's no Jalen Hurts to save him anymore. Mac Jones is probably better than Kyle Trask, or BoNix, each of whom had some success against the LSU secondary, but can he outpace Joe Burrow? I think the Auburn game exposed the Tigers (these Tigers) a bit. LSU shouldn't look that awful in the red zone with a decently mobile quarterback. That game shouldn't have been that close, and it doesn't bode well for an LSU team that now has to go on the road and defend what might be the best WR corps in America, no matter who's throwing to them. *Sigh*. Bama goes back to #1 with a gritty home win. LSU: 23--Bama: 27

Schweinfurth: Tua had ankle surgery and they expect him to be 100% two weeks later? I'm not buying it. I've had the dreaded high ankle sprain and, surgery or not, it takes at least 3 good weeks to heal to 90%. Bama's defense hasn't looked the same this year either after losing two (!) starting linebackers. LSU has found something on offense and Joe Burrow is lighting everyone up. Let's compare schedules too: Alabama has not played a team that currently has a winning record. LSU has beaten two* top 10 teams (*at the time they played and not the CFP rankings). LSU just seems to be on track to run the SEC this year, and I tend to agree but it is sooo hard to pick against Saban. LSU: 24--Bama: 21

Seeberg:  Damn, the one year this game REALLY needed to be in Death Valley.  You know, the year the Bayou Bengals FINALLY have an offense!  Only two questions matter here:  Where is the game being played?  Bama.  Darn.  Where is Tua?  This one we don't know.  I'd be positively stunned if he isn't starting the game, but we just have no idea how healthy or not he is.  High ankle sprains are fickle mistresses (trust me...I know.  My right ankle will be roughly 92% for the rest of my life because I didn't have access to all the stuff Tua has when I severely sprained my ankle during a pickup basketball game over a decade ago).  Tangent aside, a 100% Tua at home wins this game more often than not.  Oddly both teams have relied heavily on their offenses this season, with surprisingly porous defensive outputs.  To me, the entire game comes down to one joint at the bottom of a right leg.  I don't trust Tua to be 100% 3 weeks removed from a high ankle sprain that required surgery, so I don't trust Bama to outscore the Tigers (never thought I'd see that sentence).  Geaux Joey!  LSU: 31--Bama: 26  

Iowa Hawkeyes @ Wisconsin Badgers

Draper: I'll be honest, I had no idea this game was happening this week; and quite frankly, I don't care.  This game is going to be all kinds of boring.  A Badger win and Gopher loss would essentially make the Axe for the West Championship.  The thing about Iowa is they're always good a coming out of nowhere and winning a dumb game.  Unfortunately for them, that happened vs. Iowa State this year...and this is in Madison.  I can't see the Badgers dropping this at home after two straight losses.  Yes, they lost to a terrible Illinois team and were blown out in Columbus, but I can't imagine this team going gentle into that goodnight.  This will be an old school B1G slobberknocker that finishes in about 2 hours.  Wisconsin wins and the nation ignores it.  Iowa: 10 -- UW: 20

Hoying: All eyes are on Minnesota currently enjoying a 2-game cushion atop the B1G West, but each of these teams is right in the thick of it. All it takes is a Gopher loss to the Nittany Lions (see above) and suddenly the winner of this game controls its own destiny for a Big Ten title. I'm not sure there's a ranked team in the country more unfairly ignored than Iowa. Yes, their offense looked atrocious against Michigan and Penn State, and they needed a literal punt-to-win against the Cyclones, but the reason Iowa wasn't run out of any of those games was their stout defense has been up to the challenge week in and week out all year. And they're built to handle the Badgers as well, boasting the nation's #8 rush defense, surrendering only 88 yards a game (even better than a certain scarlet and gray team). Unfortunately for them, they're paying a visit to the nation's top defense, even after the embarrassment the Badgers suffered against the Buckeyes. If you're the Buckeyes, you can move the ball against Wisconsin, but can the same be said about Iowa? Almost certainly NO. In other words, this will look like every other Iowa game of import this year: low-scoring and ugly. The last time Iowa won the West (in that mirage of a 2015 undefeated regular season), the road to the division title went through Camp Randall, and the Hawkeyes needed everything in the bag to escape with a victory (predicted by exactly 1 person here). Herky hasn't beaten the Badgers since. Don't expect that to change here. Iowa: 9--UW: 10

Schweinfurth: Ahh yes, the annual death slog for the Heartland Trophy. Seriously take one of these teams, put a mirror in front of it and you have the other team. The difference here is at tailback and defense. Wisconsin, despite getting shredded by the Buckeyes, are still and excellent defense and feast on teams like Iowa. Johnathan Taylor still won't put up the Hesiman numbers he had before the OSU game, but his explosiveness is something the Hawkeyes just can't match. First one to score a TD wins. Iowa: 9--UW: 13

Seeberg:  Mamma Mia, here we go again.  Another knockdown, drag-out, will-look-like-it-was-played-in-1957 B1G matchup.  Both teams ugly the game up.  Iowa on purpose with a solid D but middling O.  Wisconsin out of necessity because even though it likes to pretend it can throw the ball (Russell Wilson year aside), it really, really can't.  It's as if these two are mirror images, except Wisconsin is the original and Iowa is the semi-foggy-after-a-hot-shower reflection.  In Camp Randall there's just no way Iowa sneaks out of here with a win because double-digit points is highly unlikely.  Just wait for the highlight (nonplural there, folks) and avoid the 3+ hours of something resembling your grandfather's dad's football.  Iowa: 6--UW: 17

Maryland Terrapins @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: Remember when Maryland was ranked? Me neither!  This team has been in freefall after the marquee win over ranked Syracuse in week 2.  I don't see much room for hope of rebounding for the Terps here.  I suppose their best hope is that OSU gets super excited with the number 1 ranking and forgets how to play football, but little chance of that.  I do expect a little bit of laziness when no one on OSU will take the next 2 weeks seriously, but Coach Day should be able to squash it soon.  The key for the studs is to stay in the Heisman race and hellooooo stat padding season.  Chase Young records another 2.5 sacks (breaking the OSU single season sack record), JK runs for 150 and is pulled early, while Fields reminds the nation that he's another name from Columbus vying for New York.  No mercy.  Mary: 10 -- OSU: 55

Hoying: Picture the scene from Terminator 2: Judgment Day, when Sarah Connor desperately tries to warn the families at the playground about the impending nuclear attack by Skynet. The kids at the playground are Maryland, the atomic bomb is Ohio State, and Sarah Connor outside the fence is...also Maryland? From the past? Or the future? The analogy starts to break down but the key point to remember is that the Buckeyes are going to annihilate the Terrapins in this game. Maryland is a Rutgers away from their last 6 games being 4 blowout losses and getting beaten by Temple and Indiana. RB Anthony McFarland (shudder), who gashed the Buckeyes all day last year, is now a bit player in an offense that hasn't worked since the aforementioned Rutgers laugher. I don't know what happened in College Park last year but it sure as hell isn't happening against this year's Buckeye defense. Let's focus on more interesting matters: the spread in this game is Ohio State -44, and Maryland beat Rutgers by 41 a month ago. What is the spread next week going to be? Are we going to be in Savannah State territory? Mary: 0--OSU: 52

Schweinfurth: I get the luxury of writing this after the Chase Young news. Great. Look, Ohio State wins big. The starers are in for 3ish quarters and out. We won't see much of Field's legs the next two weeks, just don't take unnecessary hits. With that said, of all weeks to be suspended, this is probably the best case scenario. The Silver Bullets are coached much better this year and do a very good job staying home and in tackling lanes. McFarland shouldn't have a day like last year. What suck is that Young's Heisman campaign is over. I really do expect him back before the Penn State game, if not earlier. Not much else to say but Go Bucks. MD: 6--OSU: 45

Seeberg: Wow, such a B1G week this week!  Then again, we must always pick our beloved Buckeyes.  So, the question this week is:  Will the rankings start to seep into the heads of the scarlet and gray?  To be honest, even if so, it will only be for a week as the Bama/LSU winner will almost certainly (and rightfully, if we're being honest) be #1 at this time next week.  Add to that the fact that the Terrapins still have the running back that went all Biakabutuka on the Buckeyes to the tune of 295 yards last season, and this game should still get enough attention to warrant a quickly-becoming-customary Buckeye blowout.  My hope is that Chase Young, currently of the 13.5 sacks, gets 2 in this one, then 2 against Rutgers and then needs just 2.5 against PSU and TTUN to get 20 which is just outlandish...and awesome...and Heisman-worthy.  Shut down the run, keep everyone healthy, and then onto the glorified scrimmage next week.  MD: 3--OSU: 52

Upset Special

Draper: Virginia Tech over Wake Forest

Hoying: TCU over Baylor

Schweinfurth: Duke over Notre Dame

Seeberg: Wyoming over Boise State

Top 25 and Heisman Ballots - After Week 10

After a two year hiatus, rankings make a triumphant return to Let's Go Bucks! The Committee will weigh in soon enough with their opinions; get the real scoop here first.

Rankings, as always, are based on what teams have done so far, not how we believe they will finish.

Let's Go Bucks Index
1. Louisiana State
2. Ohio State
3. Alabama
4. Penn State
5. Clemson
6. Georgia
7. Oregon
8. Baylor
9. Minnesota
10. Florida
11. Utah
12a. Oklahoma
12b. Auburn
14. Michigan
15. Wisconsin
16. Notre Dame
17. Kansas State
18. Cincinnati
19. Iowa
20. Memphis
21. Indiana
22. Wake Forest
23. Boise State
24. SMU
25. Navy

Others receiving votes: San Diego State

Let's Go Bucks Heisman Index
1. Joe Burrow (QB--LSU)
2. Chase Young (DE--OSU)
3. Jalen Hurts (QB--Okla)

Others receiving votes: JK Dobbins (RB--OSU)

Draper Top 25

1. Ohio State

2. Louisiana State

3. Alabama

4. Clemson

5. Penn State

6. Georgia

7. Oregon

8. Baylor

9. Minnesota

10. Oklahoma

11. Florida

12. Michigan

13. Auburn

14. Utah

15. Cincinnati

16. Wisconsin

17. Notre Dame

18. Iowa 

19. Kansas State

20. Memphis

21. Indiana

22. SMU

23. Wake Forest

24. Boise State

25. Navy

Draper Heisman Ballot

1. Chase Young (DE--OSU)
2. Joe Burrow (QB--LSU)
3. Jalen Hurts (QB--Oklahoma)
Honorable Mention: J.K. Dobbins (RB-- OSU)

Hoying Top 25

1. Louisiana State

2. Ohio State

3. Penn State

4. Clemson

5. Alabama

6. Baylor

7. Minnesota

8. Georgia

9. Florida

10. Auburn

11. Michigan

12. Oregon

13. Wisconsin

14. Notre Dame

15. Utah

16. Iowa

17. Kansas State

18. Oklahoma

19. Wake Forest

20. Memphis

21. Indiana

22. Cincinnati

23. Southern Methodist

24. Boise State

25. San Diego State

Hoying Heisman Ballot
1. Joe Burrow (QB--LSU)
2. Jalen Hurts (QB--Okla)
3. JK Dobbins (RB--Ohio St)

Schweinfurth Top 25
1. LSU

2. Ohio State

3. Penn State

4. Alabama

5. Clemson

6. Utah

7. Baylor

8. Georgia

9. Oregon

10. Minnesota

11. Oklahoma

12. Florida

13. Auburn

14. Wisconsin

15. Michigan

16. Notre Dame

17. Kansas State 

18. Memphis

19. Cincinnati

20. Indiana

21. Wake Forest

22. Boise St.

23. Navy

24. San Diego St. 

25. SMU

Schweinfurth Heisman Ballot
1. Joe Burrow (QB--LSU)

2. Chase Young (DE--OSU)

3. JK Dobbins (RB--OSU)

4. Jalen Hurts (QB--Okla)

I feel like I need to justify this because it seems homerish. Oklahoma lost and Hurts looks more like a system beneficiary. He played okay in their loss, but JK and Chase Young have been dominant in games. Young has a play every week that makes my jaw drop. If not for the lopsided blowouts all year, Dobbins yardage numbers would be more impressive. As impressive as Tua has been all year, the injury eliminates him in my mind.

Seeberg Top 25
1. LSU
2. Ohio State
3. Alabama
4. Penn State
5. Clemson
6. Oregon
7. Georgia
8. Oklahoma
9. Utah
10. Florida
11. Auburn
12. Michigan
13. Minnesota
14. Baylor
15. Wisconsin
16. Notre Dame
17. Kansas State
18. Iowa
19. Cincinnati
20. Boise State
21. Indiana
22. Wake Forest
23. Memphis
24. Navy
25. SMU

Seeberg Heisman Ballot
1. Joe Burrow (QB--LSU)
2. Chase Young (DE--OSU)
3. Jalen Hurts (QB--Okla)

Two Playoff Teams from the Same Conference?

You've heard the same steady drumbeat from all the usual sources since before this season even began. "Don't be surprised to see two teams from the same conference in the playoff this year." It's not a total stretch. We've already seen it happen (2017), even in the BCS days (2011), when the playoff only included two teams. Why can't it happen this year, particularly when one conference has so many standout teams at the top? Why should one of them get left out for taking an acceptable loss to another title contender? Particularly if the team taking the loss is...well, you know the one.

That team.

The one that's in the playoff discussion every year, and no stranger to playoff controversy. That team has a good chance to avoid the drama this year, as even though they aren't quite atop the polls right now, they're still undefeated, they've destroyed everyone on their schedule to date, and they'll be favored in every game from here through the conference championship. That is, if they make it that far. One of their division rivals (no, not the rival, but an annoying one just the same) is right atop the undefeated pile with them, and the rival's coming to town for a massive November showdown. A loss would leave that team on the outside looking in on championship weekend. It wouldn't be a death knell to their playoff hopes, as that team has made the playoff once before despite not winning their division. But the champion of this conference will virtually be a lock for the playoff, so it seems the only way for that team to make the playoff with a loss would be for their conference to get two teams in.

"Would that be such a shame?" the narrative queries. Every team in the Pac-12 enters November with a blemish, with only 2 teams having avoided their dreaded playoff-eliminating second loss. Baylor's not going undefeated, and one-loss Oklahoma's the only other Big 12 team still in the playoff picture. Notre Dame won't be reprising their appearance from last year, and Clemson's one Clemsoning away from having a Group of 5-esque resume and knocking the ACC out of the playoff hunt as well. In a year with such a weak playoff field, why should that team be punished for playing in a tough conference and coming out mono-scathed?

You know what team I'm talking about, right? Maybe not. The above description actually fits two different teams. For purposes of blind comparison, we'll call them Borealis and Australis.

In November, Borealis, after hosting the undefeated showdown mentioned above, goes on the road to face their rivals in another possible top 10 matchup. Borealis already has another conference win over a ranked team, and though they didn't face a Power 5 opponent out of conference, they picked up another ranked win over a tough Group of 5 team who hasn't lost since.

In November, Australis, after hosting the undefeated showdown mentioned above, goes on the road to face their rivals in another possible top 10 matchup. Australis has played a hot load of trash so far in conference, and while they beat a (bad) Power 5 team to start the year, they're not going to pick up any quality wins out of conference. Their November stretch run even includes a nice FCS breather.

By now I don't have to tell you that Borealis and Australis are Ohio State and Alabama. And I don't have to tell you that Alabama has been one of the "two playoff teams from the same conference" since the pundits started publishing their preseason playoff predictions. But I will ask you: how many projected playoff fields have you seen with two teams from the B1G? You know, the conference with 3 undefeated teams?

On the one hand, the Buckeyes could take this as a compliment. Perhaps the narrative is that Ohio State's rampage is obviously going to continue, and the destruction will be so total that the playoff committee couldn't possibly countenance putting another Big Ten team in the playoff. But why is a 1 loss Penn State, with wins over Iowa, Michigan, and Minnesota, less deserving than, say, a 1 loss Georgia, or LSU, or yes, Alabama? Now's not the time to split hairs over these teams' relative playoff resumes (that will come later). For now, just question why all the love is being heaped on one conference and their standard-bearer while another is being ignored.

Week 10: Go Bye Bye!

Standings:
1.) Schweinfurth 28-4 (2-7 upset)
2.) Hoying 27-5 (4-5 upset)
3.) Seeberg 25-7 (1-8 upset)
4.) Draper 24-8 (1-8 upset)

Welcome to another thrilling week of NCAA division 1-A football! See all your favorite teams* in action this Saturday**.





*Offer not applicable to LSU, Alabama, Ohio State, Penn State, Oklahoma, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, San Diego State, Texas, or any of 25 other teams on byes this week.



**Yes, we know some teams play on Thursday or Friday. Shut up.

Georgia Bulldogs vs. Florida Gators

Draper: Hooray for the Cocktail Party! (The only game that doesn't suck this week!) After faceplanting against South Carolina, Georgia cannot afford to drop another game (not to mention the need to earn a quality win after ND entered free fall).  A touch of shine has been taken off the Gators in Death Valley, but they're still a pretty good team (at least defensively).  Georgia is more complete.  I'm expecting a close game, but one in which the team with more experience at QB (Jake Fromm State Farm) will take the game.  This will likely solidify a reappearance of the Dawgs in the SEC Championship.  UGA: 24--UF: 16

Hoying: If you listen carefully, you can hear all the head coverings hitting the ground. Each quality win on which these teams were hanging their hats took it on the chin last weekend. At least Florida's vanquished foe, Auburn, looked somewhat respectable in Death Valley against LSU. But Notre Dame? The less said, the better, and suddenly Georgia's resume doesn't look so good. Remember when the Bulldogs lost to South Carolina? Since that masterpiece, the Cocks have lost to Florida and Tennessee. Yiiiikes. Hope you enjoyed the 90's and 2017, SEC East fans. The winner of this game isn't taking down LSU or Bama. And that winner will be...Georgia. The Gator D is good but the Bulldog D is better. UGA: 20--UF: 14

Schweinfurth: I have watched a little of both these teams this year. Let me start by saying, I'm not real impressed with either. Georgia is a team that can't get out of its own way and Florida is just a head scratcher. Both teams do have good defenses, but QB play has been suspect. I'm gonna go with the Gators for some odd reason. UGA: 17--UF: 21

Seeberg: A few weeks ago, it wouldn't have even crossed my mind to do any work on this game, Bulldogs by a mile.  Now?  These squads feel like mirror images of each other.  Largely solid defenses with woefully underperforming offenses.  Unfortunately for the visitors, despite the high hopes to start the season, a trip into the Swamp is rarely the cure for an offense that is struggling to find rhythm against opponents with a pulse in recent weeks.  Hard to imagine Fromm springing back to life in Jacksonville.  Gators officially enter the "multiple SEC teams should get into the playoff!" discussion.  UGA: 13--UF: 20

Southern Methodist Mustangs @ Memphis Tigers

Draper: Wheeeeee!!!! No one cares! Yeah, SMU is now in the driver's seat to snag the NY6 bid from the Group of 5 after App State took it on the chin, but they're dogs vs. Memphis.... Are you really deserving if you are fairly deep dogs to Memphis? Well, perhaps they just need to play the 'no one trusts us' card, but Memphis is no slouch.  I'm leaning on Tigers to keep the Group of 5 a complete and abject mess.  Go Tigers.  SMU: 28 -- Mem: 34

Hoying: I believe this is a first at Let's Go Bucks! We've never been forced to write about SMU before. But they've become impossible to ignore. After taking the reins (heh) from Chad Morris a couple of years ago, Sonny Dykes has turned the ponies into a serious NY6 contender. They even took one of Texas's castoff quarterbacks, Shane Buechele, and pulled off a victory against TCU! Not even the QB Texas kept could do that this season. As for their opponent, the Tigers have been playing with fire since their opening season win over Ole Mississippi. It burned them against Temple but ultimately not against Tulsa, as a last second shank delivered Memphis from a crippling loss. Yes, that Tulsa, the one that SMU needed a 21 point 4th quarter comeback and three overtimes to beat. The AAAAAAAC has been the most fun conference in America this season, except for maybe the Pac-12, and the race to face Cincinnati for the conference crown isn't slowing down anytime soon. It's just that, after this weekend, Memphis will be in the lead. A slightly better D, along with the home crowd, dooms the Mustangs' perfect season. SMU: 31--Mem: 34

Schweinfurth: With all the "Texas is back" talk last year, someone forgot about the woebegone Mustangs. The only school to ever receive the NCAA death penalty. Let's be honest here, I only watched 2 AAC games this year and one involved Ohio State. I truly know nothing about either team. Why not, SMU stays undefeated. SMU: 38--Mem: 35

Seeberg: SMU is undefeated and somehow avoids Cincinnati on their schedule.  Honestly it feels like a season simialr to those Northwestern teams in the mid-90s that "won" back-to-back B1G titles by virtue of having neither Ohio State OR TTUN on their docket.  Not sure how that was legal, but back to the present.  Memphis has a penchant for playing close games and there's no reason to suspect this one will be any different.  The Tigers' schedule is massively backloaded, however, finishing with games at Houston and at home against Cinci.  My guess is they will be amped up enough for this one to sneak by before falling flat late.  Enjoy Beale Street.  SMU: 34--Mem: 41

Upset Special

Draper: Vandy over South Carolina

Hoying: Kansas over Kansas State

Schweinfurth: USC over Oregon

Seeberg: Virginia Tech over Notre Dame

Week 9: Big Nude Saturday

Standings:
1.) Schweinfurth 25-3 (2-6 upset)
2.) Hoying 24-4 (4-4 upset)
3.) Seeberg 23-5 (1-7 upset)
4.) Draper 22-6 (1-7 upset)

Thanks to Wisconsin's faceplant in Champaign, the Buckeyes won't get to participate in the biggest game of the regular season to date. And they probably won't get to in the future either (Penn State @ Ohio State is after LSU @ Alabama). But Gus Johnson is still coming to town, and the Bucks still get to kick off a pretty good day of football all around. Savor it (you won't believe what a hellscape next week is).

Auburn Tigers @ Louisiana State Tigers

Draper: Man, I wish this game was in Jordan Hare.  The Tigahs have been rolling behind Joe Burrow through some tough matchups, but can they keep it going through the brutal SEC West? Auburn and freshman QB, Bonix (better as one word), got a little shock to system when facing the Gators and a stout defense.  I think they rebound a bit in this game, but LSU is significantly better than UF on the offensive side of the ball.  While I don't think the Tigers are offensive world beaters (like the national media does), they should have enough fire power to outscore a teetering Auburn squad.  The visiting tigers keep it close early, but Death Valley and Coach O prove too much.  Aub: 16 -- LSU: 27

Hoying: Y'all are once again Tiger bait. The LSU version are this year's hot team to unseat Bama atop the SEC West (but actually with a chance this time). They're a veritable offensive juggernaut, the kind that makes Auburn long for the salad days of Cam Newton. BoNix doesn't have a prayer of hanging with Joey Turncloak, even against a somewhat vulnerable LSU defense. The TigAUrs have failed to crack 30 four times out of seven tries, and that's not going to get it done in Death Valley. Aub: 20--LSU: 42

Schweinfurth: LSU is flat rolling teams right now. How Auburn is still top 10 is beyond me (thanks Oregon, I guess). I have doubts as to whether or not LSU will actually run the table this year; their schedule is just ridiculous down the stretch. However, I don't think Auburn has the horses to keep up with the Joe Burrow offensive machine LSU tosses out there. Aub: 17--LSU: 35

Seeberg:  For those of you unaware, this is still actually a top 10 matchup as Auburn is still riding largely on the strength of their Oregon win (and the Ducks have looked very good since).  Unfortunately for the visiting Tigers, they will likely drop below Nike's trial-and-error (mostly error) uniform squad after this contest.  LSU is arguably executing better than the Buckeyes on offense, and though their D seems to have taken a half-step back this season, it's still an upper echelon unit.  War Eagle faceplanted on offense in their first road test at Florida, and the not-so-friendly confines of Death Valley aren't likely to be much more forgiving.  (Home) Tigers win. Aub: 20--LSU: 34

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Michigan Wolverines

Draper: Did the Wolverines find the secret sauce in the 2nd half vs. Penn State? Maybe....but I think they just found some flaws in an overrated Lion team.  The Irish are still floating around the periphery of national relevance after that close loss to UGA, but I don't have much faith there either.  This should be a really good game since it's in the Big House.  The X-factor is Shea Patterson...in a negative way.  If he can put a consistent performance together, the Maize and Blue have a real shot.  The problem is: I don't think he can.  More gut-wrenching losses for the Wolverines are always a good thing, but the farewell tour for Jim Harbaugh has been a disappointment (to some).  ND: 20 -- UM: 17

Hoying: Revenge Tour! Oh wait, wrong season. The Wolverines have had some tough sledding against top teams this season, but they're a different beast at home under Harbaugh (except against Little Brother). The offense turned a bit of a corner in the second half in Happy Valley, but the knuckleheads still haven't figured out that the best way to exploit their advantages is just to chuck it deep every play. Maybe they need a bit of a dose of Mike Leach. Of course, that offense doesn't work in nasty weather (see last year's Pac-12 Championship) so the Wolverines are likely going to have to get things done on the ground. And unlike Justin Fields (see below), Michigan QB Shea Patterson doesn't really like to keep the ball, even though he's a mobile enough dude to be a threat on the zone read. Bad news for the Maize and Blue is that the Domers already have an offensive identity this year, one with a potent ground game. I just don't trust Michigan to put together a solid 60-minute performance until I see it (no, not against Rutgers). ND: 24--UM: 20

Schweinfurth: When do we stop acting like both of these teams are elite? How about this week? The only way I see the Wolverines winning this game is if they stop the run and force Ian Book to throw down field. I really can't see Harbooger's offense doing anything. Yes, the second half gave some optimism last week, but I feel like that was more of Penn State taking their foot off the gas. This game stays close but the Irish actually know how to win games. ND: 24--UM: 16 

Seeberg:  Well it pains me to say it, but TTUN looked like a solid, dare I say, near-elite team for a half against Penn State last weekend.  Unfortunately, two halves are required make a whole, and that 21-0 deficit was too much to overcome.  However, we're less certain how good the Fighting Irish Lou Holtz's are since their "good loss" to Georgia suddenly appears much less so.  Typically, the "is Harbaugh gone after this season?" speculation doesn't begin until November, but 2 losses and a home underdog game later and the train has arrived ahead of schedule.  Oh, and they opened at -2.5, so the fact that they're now +1 in Vegas is a really bad sign.  IF they can string together 4 quarters of quality football like the second half in Happy Valley, they can win this game.  But quite frankly there are only two teams operating at that kind of level right now...and both have Buckeye quarterbacks at the helm #developedhere.  Sadly, somebody has to win this game.  Happily, it won't be the maize and blue.  At least they'll finally be out of the rankings.  ND: 24--UM: 20

North Dakota State Bison @ South Dakota State Jackrabbits

Draper: The fact that College Gameday went to South Dakota over Columbus is a nice slap in the face.  Yes, these teams are highly ranked in the FCS division, but OSU/Wisc (even after the Badgers pooped the bed) is the game of the week.  Usually, throwing the bone to FCS comes later, but a game on FOX and having attended a B1G game last week likely sealed the fate.  Oh well, I'm sure these teams are good... SDSU almost took down Minnesota and NDSU gave us Carson Wentz.  Let's lean on the home team that has been tested.  Go Jackrabbits.  NDSU: 27--SDSU: 30

Hoying: On the surface, you'd look at this matchup and say, "Hey, NDSU is undefeated and SDSU isn't. Let's go with the away team." Not so fast, my friend, as the Bison ain't played nobody, and that loss that SDSU suffered? Was at the hands of undefeated Big Ten juggernaut...Minnesota, by one score, in a game the Jackrabbits led deep into the fourth quarter. Oddly enough, though these teams both play in the Missouri Valley Football Conference (hi Jim Tressel), they have played zero common opponents so far. One thing to look out for in this game: South Dakota State's been having some kicking problems this year, as Chase Vinatieri (yes, that Vinatieri) has only made 4 of 8 attempts so far. Could this make the difference? NDSU: 31--SDSU: 30

Schweinfurth: Yea, I don't watch much (any) FCS football outside of bowl season. I have no clue on this so go Bison? NDSU: 31--SDSU: 28

Seeberg:  Hey, bonus 1-AA game!  (I maintain that it is NOT the FCS).  Admittedly this is a big matchup, #1 vs. #3.  Only one loss between them, and that was SDSU's 7-point loss to undefeated Minnesota.  The Bizon (that's how they insist on pronouncing it for whatever reason) ripped off several titles in a row (2011-15) and the last two as well.  Their neighbors to the south have been excellent for the last few years as well, frequently in the top 10, just never able to get over the hump and win a title.  The presence of College GameDay might amp the home crowd up and make an already intense contest even more fever-pitched.  I wouldn't be surprised if a rematch pits these two against each other deep in the playoffs.  ND may get their revenge then, but the home crowd wins the day for the Jackrabbits.  ND: 23--SD: 24

Wisconsin Badgers @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: I'd say I was upset with Wisconsin faceplanting before this game, but that would be a lie.  The Badgers are habitually fantastic at beating teams of lesser talent (last week excluded), but struggle against teams with better athletes....uh oh.  The main benefit for the Badgers is the potential poor weather to 'muck up the game'.  The bad news? The Buckeyes have the better running back in yards/att...by a full yard!  JK Dobbins puts on a show to wake up the national media to the completeness of the Buckeyes while Chase Young continues his dominance over unsuspecting QBs.  The Bucks need to slow Jonathan Taylor (Thomas?) down which will be a test for the linebackers, but the lack of an outside passing game should make that task a touch easier.  If Fields can avoid the mistakes and the receivers can eat (even a little), this shouldn't be close.  I'm calling my shot on a blowout.  Wisc: 17 -- OSU: 40

Hoying: Is it possible for the biggest game of the year to be a letdown game? Everyone in Buckeye Nation was looking forward to #3 vs. #6, but now it's just a game against a mid-ranked opponent. And a nasty one at that. The only thing I liked about the whole Legends/Leaders fiasco was that the Buckeyes got to play the Bucky's every year, as this had turned into one of the grittiest knock down drag out fights in the Big Ten. Sure, Ohio State's won 6 in a row, but all (except one, lol) were very close, and undefeated Buckeyes have fallen to the Badgers before, even in this very decade. I would feel a lot better about this game if it weren't raining, as I think we could have success with a "Five hundred!" offense much in the way Illinois did, only with some accuracy and pass protection. On the other hand, Jonathan Taylor's had fumble problems in the past, and this ball-hawking defense may have some opportunities with a slippery rock. I still think our running attack is superior to Wisconsin's: Dobbins/Teague vs. Taylor is about a dead heat at running back, while Fields can run circles around the Wisconsin's plain vanilla QB Jack "Ice Cream" Coan. Perhaps we should embrace the rain. Think more Ohio State - Illinois 2009, and less Ohio State - Michigan State 2015. If the Bucks win this one in a blowout, it's time to start thinking about putting them up on the Mount Rushmore of greatest Buckeye teams of all time. Wisc: 13 -- OSU: 24

Schweinfurth: Say what you will about Ohio State's schedule this year, but Wisconsin's hasn't been much better. Common opponents in MSU and Northwestern are kind of a wash but consider this - Bucky played MSU THE WEEK AFTER Ohio State beat the crap out of them. I watched a bit of the Illinois game from last week on replay and is just seemed like Wisconsin's secondary and linebackers looked slow. Take that as you will, but Fields, Dobbins, and company all fly. The only thing that really scares me about Wisconsin is Johnathan Taylor, and only when he is in the open field. This game looks close on the rankings page and really that's as far as it goes. UW is a second quarter explosion away from getting smoked like everyone else. Go Bucks, Beat the Badgers! UW: 13--OSU: 42

Seeberg:  Well the shine is certainly off this game.  To be honest, I thought the Badgers had the best regular-season chance of upending the Buckeyes, but any team capable of losing to Illinois just flat out should not beat this team this season.  The offense is flawlessly balanced, capable of hurting any opponent right up the gut all the way out past the numbers.  The Silver Bullets are back on D, gang tackling, creating turnovers again, and *fingers crossed* not whiffing on tackles left and right like a season ago.  Unfortunately, the weather forecast (50s and continual rain) is a bit of a concern, but honestly it may be worse for the visiting squad.  An offense that already trends one-dimensional will have 0 ability to throw the ball in the wind and rain, but Fields' arm strength, coupled with his phenomenal corps of receivers, should still be able to make short and intermediate routes happen. I expect Wiscy to be ready, and angry after last week's dismal showing, but it still won't be enough.  Fields and Dobbins haven't even played a full four quarters yet, so there's no reason they can't pull away late and win convincingly.  OSU: 31--Wisc: 10 

Upset Special

Draper: Washington State over Oregon

Hoying: California over Utah

Schweinfurth: Maryland over Minnesota

Seeberg: Michigan State over Penn State