Standings:
1.) Schweinfurth 12-5 (0-4 upset)
2.) Draper 11-6 (1-3 upset)
2.) Seeberg 11-6 (1-3 upset)
4.) Hoying 10-7 (1-3 upset)
Call it a theft, a murder, criminal fraud (it bought Brian Ferentz 6 more years in Iowa City), or whatever you like, there's no denying that Ohio State's last visit to Kinnick Stadium wasn't a pretty sight for Buckeye Nation. The Buckeyes will look to avenge a painful memory (at least for Ryan Day) while other top teams around the nation face hostile environments of their own.
Alabama Crimson Tide @ Mississippi State Bulldogs
Draper: Of all the games this week, this is the one I'm the most interested in. Bama vs. MSU is supposed to be a slam dunk, but Kamario Taylor has just been a joy to watch. The Return of the CLANGA is upon us, but Bama is pretty decent themselves. Keelon Russell is breaking out and while Bama isn't Saban's Bama, they come to play. This is a HUGE statement game for the Bulldogs to announce their arrival and the return to glory in Starkville...but I don't think they're ready for the big time yet. Beating Mizzou late is one thing...but the Tide are a whole different animal. While I'd love to go with CLANGA and the excitement, I'm going to be boring and roll with the Tide. Bama: 31--MissSt: 20
Hoying: Do you remember the identity of the first #1 team in the history of the College Football Playoff rankings? It wasn’t Alabama. It wasn’t Ohio State. It wasn’t Clemson or Georgia or Oklahoma or any other cyanemic name you’d expect. It was Mississippi State, fresh off of 3 straight top 10 wins. Now, each of those may have been overrated (the only one who finished ranked was Auburn at 22nd), but it was the Crimson Tide who gave the Bulldogs’ dream a rude awakening on their way to the first ever CFP #1 seed. It was a close-fought match, decided by a single score, but that one was in Tuscaloosa. Now the Tide, who limped to a Playoff spot they did not deserve last year (sorry, Notre Dame), have one of the highest powered offenses in college football. But not the highest powered. That honor might just go to Mississippi State of all teams, behind the air attack of local boy Kemario Taylor and the ground game led by Fluff Bothwell (seriously). Bama took way too long out of the gate before dispatching Kentucky and Florida State, and a slow start against a high powered offense like MSU’s will doom them, especially in front of an unfavorable partisan crowd. I’d never pick against Saban in this scenario but DeBoer doesn’t seem to have the same mojo. The Bulldogs roll on for now (don’t look at the rest of their October schedule). Bama: 31—MSU: 34
Schweinfurth: I’m not sold on either of these two teams, but I do believe Bama is better. Bama: 35—MissSt: 17
Seeberg: A win here for the surprising home team would likely be the biggest in program history since the Dak era. Bama can score in bunches, but they still don’t run it particularly well, despite their dual-threat QB Keelon Russell averaging over 5 ypc. The Bulldogs run it better, but Bama’s revamped D-line is a problem (their castoffs are not exactly crushing it in the scarlet and gray). The home crowd keeps it close, but the Tide pull away late. Bama: 38–MSU: 26
Michigan Wolverines @ Minnesota Golden Gophers
Draper: This game is very interesting after PJ Fleck got his blood sacrifice and Ferentz extracted their pound of flesh. TTUN is down after losing a game on the last play (sucks don't it) and the Gophers couldn't be more pumped after a close win in Seattle, but I don't know if Washington is any good....also, <whispers> Iowa shouldn't have won the game last week--BUT THEY DID! I will be pulling very hard for the Gophers and I would love to see the Jug return to Minneapolis, but I'm not feeling it. TTUN gets back to cheati... winning and the bloodborne illnesses Fleck got will be for naught. UM: 23--Minn: 13
Hoying: Maybe we’ve been a little too harsh on Michigan. Maybe they’re not as bad as their record (should) indicate. Losing to Iowa hurts, but it wasn’t like they got run out of their own building. No, that’s what happened to Minnesota against Mississippi State in week 2. The Gophers put up all of one touchdown against the Bulldogs, on a fumble in the end zone. It’s not like Iowa has much of an offense, either, last week’s close win notwithstanding, but the Hawkeyes’ defense was able to keep pace with Michigan in a way that Minnesota just will not. I’d love to be wrong again and see the Gophers ride the momentum of last week’s big win in Seattle but it’s time for more mean regression for both teams. Mich: 24—Minn: 17
Schweinfurth: Michigan is due for a bounce back. However, they have some serious problems. Pay more money for Underwood and maybe get worse results? UM: 17—Minn: 10
Seeberg: Yet another contest where I have 0 idea if either team is good. Michigan’s supposed high-level defense gave up a 91-yard two-minute touchdown drive to IOWA last week so that defense has been, by law, confirmed as mid for the remainder of the season. Minnesota got a west coast win against the Huskies who I’m beginning to think are the Missouri Tigers of the Big Ten: always hyped and near/in the rankings, no results to show for it. Last time these two played was in the Big House, and the end-game officiating of an onside kick was so bad the conference had to change its rules afterwards. The Gophers likely want revenge, but sadly I think the maize and blue will eke out enough points to win another hard-to-watch contest. UM: 20—Minn: 16
Florida Gators @ Missouri Tigers
Draper: If this were an NFL game, bet the house on the Tigers. Florida couldn't be higher after a beatdown over the Rebels and Mizzou is just (somehow) still ranked after losing to CLANGA (SEC). It SCREAMS upset as the Gators get to comfortable and travel to sleepy Columbia. However, I don't think Missouri is any good. While Florida is probably a touch overrated at the moment, their QB has flashed and there appears to be life in Gainesville (Lord, I've seen what you've given them and I ask for the same for my Noles). Gators win this one in a tight game early but a comfortable win down the stretch. UF: 31--Mizzou: 20
Hoying: Speaking of high-powered SEC offenses, how about the new-look Florida Gators? It’s a shame they don’t play either of the teams discussed above (though they do visit Texas, who has to play everyone this year); what a track meet those would turn out to be. As it stands, this week’s questionably ranked opponent is Missouri, who never beats anyone of note and may never again (unless Ohio State’s starting quarterback opts out of another bowl game). And the latest reports are that both starting DEs for the Tigers are out on Saturday. Oh boy. The Gators keep rolling, and with only tough games against Texas and Georgia left we may be looking at one of the first teams to lock up a playoff bid. UF: 38—Mizzou: 24
Hoying: Speaking of high-powered SEC offenses, how about the new-look Florida Gators? It’s a shame they don’t play either of the teams discussed above (though they do visit Texas, who has to play everyone this year); what a track meet those would turn out to be. As it stands, this week’s questionably ranked opponent is Missouri, who never beats anyone of note and may never again (unless Ohio State’s starting quarterback opts out of another bowl game). And the latest reports are that both starting DEs for the Tigers are out on Saturday. Oh boy. The Gators keep rolling, and with only tough games against Texas and Georgia left we may be looking at one of the first teams to lock up a playoff bid. UF: 38—Mizzou: 24
Schweinfurth: Again, Florida just feels like the better team here. Mizzou was good a few years ago, but they’ve probably capped out. UF: 34—Mizzou: 21
Seeberg: If you don’t follow the college football twitter-sphere, you may be unaware that Mizzou is 0-16 against SEC opponents that finish above .500. One’s an accident, two’s a pattern, three’s a trend, sixteen is bordering on unequivocal. Please get this middling team out of the rankings. Thanks Gators. UF: 34—Mizzou: 24
THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Iowa Hawkeyes
Draper: The scary pink locker room at Kinnick has caused some terrifying games in the past for Buckeye faithful. The good news? None of these players were a part of that...nor were the coaches. Urban smashed in big games but was always good for an inexplicable bedcrapping once a year and it was in Iowa City in 2017 (the last time OSU played there). I've had the good fortune to witness a game in Iowa City when Gameday was there in 2006 when OSU took care of business (38-17---NBD). Honestly, I think this is more like the 2006 game. Iowa simply doesn't have the horses to compete here. How did they go into the Big House and win? Clutch QB play, great TE play (welcome to Iowa), punts galore, supremely overrated scUM team, and a LOT of luck. The advanced stats said Iowa had no business being close in that game (...and yet...). Yes, Iowa generally gets that magical win at least once a year, but Jeremiah Smith provides all the magic we need. I'm curious as to how the defense rebound from last week (even though most of the Illini points were simply good offense). In addition, we need to start asking the question about Jakobi vs. Bo AND the other receivers need to start stepping up. I'd love to see some more Brock Boyd peppered in as the season progresses. Regardless, I think the Bucks win comfortably, but there are a few moments of panic early. Low scoring but just keep winning. OSU: 28--Iowa: 10
Hoying: The 2017 Iowa game may be the strangest Ohio State loss of the last 15 years. Yeah, 2018 Purdue and 2024 Michigan were equally bad, but at least they had key favorable matchups to exploit. Iowa had…tight ends…and the uncanny ability to read JT all day. 55 points was the most a Brian Ferentz Hawkeye offense scored against a team that finished with more than 4 wins, and they did it against perhaps Urban’s most underrated team. Thankfully, these lapses by the scarlet and gray are becoming rarer and rarer (no, losing on the road to the #4 team by one point doesn’t count). The Buckeye offense was firing on all cylinders against Illinois, including the best O-line play all season and some encouraging runs by the boy behind center. The run defense didn’t look great, but the Hawkeyes are shockingly bad at running the ball, even compared against Ohio State’s relatively quiet ground game. The Hawkeye blueprint for victory was the same against Iowa State and Michigan: hang around until the fourth quarter and them snakebite them when they make a late mistake. The Buckeyes should not leave this one to chance; apply pressure all 4 quarters and finish the job with the lead this time. Late defensive meltdowns continue to be a concern but I don’t think that Iowa has the horses to make Ohio State pay in the same way that Texas did. On to the rest of the October gauntlet (although maybe we should just call it the rest-of-the-season gauntlet; did you see what Northwestern did to Penn State???). OSU: 31—Iowa: 13
Hoying: The 2017 Iowa game may be the strangest Ohio State loss of the last 15 years. Yeah, 2018 Purdue and 2024 Michigan were equally bad, but at least they had key favorable matchups to exploit. Iowa had…tight ends…and the uncanny ability to read JT all day. 55 points was the most a Brian Ferentz Hawkeye offense scored against a team that finished with more than 4 wins, and they did it against perhaps Urban’s most underrated team. Thankfully, these lapses by the scarlet and gray are becoming rarer and rarer (no, losing on the road to the #4 team by one point doesn’t count). The Buckeye offense was firing on all cylinders against Illinois, including the best O-line play all season and some encouraging runs by the boy behind center. The run defense didn’t look great, but the Hawkeyes are shockingly bad at running the ball, even compared against Ohio State’s relatively quiet ground game. The Hawkeye blueprint for victory was the same against Iowa State and Michigan: hang around until the fourth quarter and them snakebite them when they make a late mistake. The Buckeyes should not leave this one to chance; apply pressure all 4 quarters and finish the job with the lead this time. Late defensive meltdowns continue to be a concern but I don’t think that Iowa has the horses to make Ohio State pay in the same way that Texas did. On to the rest of the October gauntlet (although maybe we should just call it the rest-of-the-season gauntlet; did you see what Northwestern did to Penn State???). OSU: 31—Iowa: 13
Schweinfurth: Iowa is a pain in the neck. They have no receivers, play a million tight ends, and only run it. AND IT WORKS! I don’t expect a repeat of last week. The defense was challenged by the players themselves to have better run fits. I’m sure it was a point of emphasis this week. Bucks should win and the Iowa run game won’t get over 200 yards. OSU: 38—Iowa 16
Seeberg: To his credit, Ryan Day doesn’t lose to teams he should beat. To his discredit, he’s 6-8 in one-score games (read: “four-quarter games” *shudders*. The spread on this one has actually gone up to 14.5 after starting at 13.5. Anything over 8 points works for the Buckeyes in their icy white unis (with the shoulder stripes!!). Kenyatta says the defense is “fixed” after too many people missed assignments last week playing “hero ball”. If one film session really fixed that, Matt Patricia might be a wizard. Giving up 450 yards to Illinois is concerning to say the least. Regardless, not one, but TWO of Michigan’s WRs had 100 yard days against the Hawkeyes, and JJ is worth about 3.8 UM wideouts. Please lord, don’t let it come down to special teams. 15 targets for Jeremiah, just enough run game to keep them honest, and get the *bleep* out of Dodge. OSU: 31—Iowa: 20
Upset Special
Draper: Rutgers over Indiana
Hoying: Clemson over Miami
Schweinfurth: Auburn over Tennessee
Seeberg: UCF over Houston
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