Week 13: The Worst Thanksgiving

Standings:

1.) Draper 12-5 (1-4 upset)

2.) Schweinfurth 11-6 (1-4 upset)

2.) Hoying 11-6 (0-5 upset)

Happy holidays to all celebrating Thanksgiving together or alone this week. We're particularly lonely without our favorite turkeys up north for the Buckeyes to pound on this year. But we're always hopeful for an early Christmas present in a couple of weeks.

FRIDAY

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ North Carolina Tar Heels [shhhhh...you saw nussing last week]

Draper: I just can't get behind this Notre Dame team.  I don't know why, but they don't scare or excite me.  Even after defeating the Big Bad Dabo (without their QB....at home...with many fans spread viruses), I don't believe.  I remember watching that Louisville game which was just gross.  UNC is a mystery wrapped in an enigma.  Mack Brown can sprinkle some magic dust and get Sam Howell to play in the stratosphere and potentially make this a shootout, but I'm not seeing the upset here.  ND: 42--UNC: 31
Hoying: Florida State has beaten two teams this year. One was Jacksonville State, who actually led the Noles into the 3rd quarter. The other was North Carolina, a team that threw all over FSU all day but was playing from behind all day after an early punt block and pick six. When the Heels are hot they get points in bunches, but the defense is a bit lacking, as shown in their last outing, a 59-53 shootout with Wake Forest. Notre Dame has a potent attack of its own, led by dual-threat QB Ian Book, and they're not quite as mistake prone as Carolina is. Yeah, they struggled with BC for a hot minute but they looked a lot better than Clemson did. They also looked a lot better than Clemson against...Clemson. I don't see Notre Dame overlooking this game, which means I don't see them losing. ND: 45--UNC: 24

Schweinfurth: I don't believe in Notre Dame, but I really don't believe in this Tar Heel team. The Heels have been letting teams get out to these ridiculous leads and then somehow coming back to win. I can really see the Irish jumping out to a huge lead and not looking back. UNC will score, but there will be no comeback this time. ND: 45--UNC: 21

Iowa State Cyclones @ Texas Longhorns

Draper: Is Texas back?  Depends on what they are ‘back’ to...2nd - 4th place in the Big Twelve seems to be ‘back lately.  Iowa State has put together a nice little run in the conference that no one believes has a chance to make the playoff (no one remembers the Pac 12 exists so they don’t count).  Sam Meh-linger has shown some sparks of very goodness, but it’s too sporadic.  Oh, and the defense...  Tom Herman is about ready to go quietly into that goodnight.  Send in the CLONES! ISU: 38–UT: 34
Hoying: ISU coach Matt Campbell's name continues to be whispered in wish lists for replacement coaches (including our neighbors up north) while Texas coach Tom Herman is mentioned in the same circles with some measure of trepidation. Why? Because Iowa State is a total of one game worse than Texas over Tom Herman's tenure at Texas, despite the fact that, you know, Iowa State is Iowa State and Texas is Texas. This season, Iowa State shook off a blowout loss to Louisiana to surge to sole possession of the Big 12 lead, and with the big bad Sooners already out of the way, a win over Texas would just about lock them into their first Big 12 championship appearance. The Horns are a late TCU touchdown and a weird Red River overtime away from being undefeated but they haven't exactly been impressive in their wins either. They're a bit too reliant on their pass game. Iowa State also boasts a formidable pass attack, and Texas's pass D has been abysmal. I know it's something of a cliché at this point for Texas Tom to overperform in a big game like this before soiling the bed against the next goober of the week, but I think his magic is starting to run out.  ISU: 34--UT: 31

Schweinfurth: Matt Campbell has the Cyclones leading a messy Big 12. ISU plays hard and is a hard out for any team right now. Texas may be playing for Tom Herman's job. A three loss season will not sit will in Austin, especially after Ohio State just poached two of the top recruits. Yes, the Longhorns have righted the ship a bit since that rough start, but I just can't trust that Ehlinger won't turn the ball over. ISU: 35--UT: 31

SATURDAY

Penn State Nittany Lions @ Michigan Wolverines

Draper: Why? Why would we do this to ourselves? Why would we do this to you? Because it’s just so....fun...to watch these teams struggle and fail.  Michigan may have found their QB for the rest of the year (future is a bit too strong) after taking down their rivals in scarlet last week in 3OT, but Penn State is an abject mess.  Everyone is jumping ship.  We thought UM was a train wreck? Well, PSU is the Titanic.  The Wolverines string together a second win to build a little confidence before the truth hits in 2 weeks.  McNamera will look good and give the announcers some fuel concerning The Game....but whatevs.  PSU: 17—UM: 27
Hoying: I believed in you, Buttgers, and you tore my heart out. Did the Wolverines finally turn a corner in triple-OT in Piscataway, under the steady arm of Cade McNamera? I'm not convinced. Again, Buttgers. I think Michigan is one of those teams that is exactly as good as their record. Penn State, on the other hand, has found a few creative ways to give games away this season. Yes, they're still missing Journey Brown and Micah Parsons, and yes, they just lost Pat Freiermuth as well, but Michigan is missing something like their entire starting defense (the competent ones anyway, yeah, you heard me, Dax Hill). The Wolverine D can't really stop anybody right now, Buttgers included, and while Penn State remains a turnover machine, I think they'll score fast enough on Michigan that turnovers won't keep them out of the game. This should be another classic for all you sickos out there who love to see Michigan in nailbiters against bad teams  (*raises hand*), but the Nittany Lions will finally get their first win and leave the Wolverine faithful to wonder what their worst loss of the season is: giving Sparty their only win, or doing the same for PSU? PSU: 31--UM: 27

Schweinfurth: It's your B1G laughing stock game of the week! Penn State took that haymaker from Indiana and just hasn't recovered. I mean 0-5? They are the first team in the history of the AP poll to start in the top ten and then go 0-5. That is terrible and makes you question Franklin's culture. One loss shouldn't cause a season to go straight in the tank. The Fighting Harboogers, on the other hand, actually found something that works with McNamera and Haskins. The only question is if Harbaugh is smart enough to keep riding them. I think Penn State is broken beyond repair this year. PSU: 14--UM: 28

Auburn Tigers @ Alabama Crimson Tide

Draper: Bama enters the Iron Bowl without their general, but no one will notice.  Something tells me that Sagan has developed a chip to implant into the players so he can coach them remotely and 24/7.  Mac Jones and Co. are a force of nature that lead the pack of National Title favorites (of course, the list of potential winners is about 4...).  What do we (I?) know about Auburn this year? Nothing really.  Roll Dang Tide.  Auburn: 10–Bama: 38
Hoying: Did you know that mighty Alabama, unquestionably the premier team of the New '10s, went a meager 6-4 against Auburn over the last decade? Amazingly, Nick Saban's Tide are a rather pedestrian 8-5 against the Tigers, including a paltry 3-5 when Auburn is ranked. Alabama has been ranked #1 five times going into this game during Saban's tenure, and has 3 wins to show for it. Should we expect another miracle this week? Well, Saban is out with the virus for real this time, so anything's possible.  The Tide have followed up last year's disappointing (11-win, top ten) season with another "Bama by a million" campaign including a pantsing of Texas A&M and a comfortable win over Georgia. QB Mac Jones looks as good as anybody north of the Florida-Georgia border, and RB Najee Harris is a devastating weapon in his own right. Auburn...squeaked out some wins against Arkansas and Ole Miss...I got nothing. I saw the 2013 and 2019 upsets coming, but this time, the Magic 8 Ball says "Don't count on it." Bama by a million. Auburn: 13--Bama: 45

Schweinfurth: No Saban, no problem. Seriously, Auburn is going to get crushed. Bo Nix is going to turn the ball over and Alabama is going to feast. Auburn: 17--Bama: 42

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Illinois Fighting Illini

Draper: Please, please, please don’t drop this game too.  The Buckeyes need these games just to stay on track.  Illinois got a nice little win vs. Nebraska last week, but is there anyone that expects lightning to strike twice.  Indiana may have found the chink in the Buckeye armor (blitz on defense — if you can cover— and play 500 on offense—if you have a good QB), but lucky for the Buckeyes, Illinois has none of those things.  This is a get right game for Fields.  We saw some terrible decision making and execution last week, but it seemed like it was more of a lock on hero-ball, Heisman moments.  Day and Co. will settle the young man down and he, Olive, and Wilson will put on a clinic.  Teague and Sermon will lay the wood when needed, but barring poor weather, I think the coaches will try to reestablish Fields’ confidence.  The defense needs to shore up the secondary (obviously) but I think Coach Coombs will analyze the situation and simplify the scheme.  Even if the Illini can’t attack like Indiana, they need to prepare for the future and fix the communication and execution (Hooker...) issues.  The biggest worry I have going into this one is the COVID scare.  OSU: 58 — Ill: 20
Hoying: Hurrah, the Buckeyes defeated their only regular season top ten opponent and are now in full-on season cleanup mode. Reminds me of a time when a Buckeye team made a run at the title but were upset in the postseason, then followed it up with another impressive string of wins to start the season. Then they played a 3-loss Illinois team, who was quarterbacked by a guy named Isaiah Williams...........oh no...nooooooo...OK, relax. This Illinois team is not exactly 2007's Rose Bowl (lol) squad. They've been using the old quarterback-by-committee offense, and it looks like this week's spin of the wheel points back to former Michigan QB Brandon Peters. You may scoff, but Peters posted a 167.2 QBR against the Buckeyes in The Game Version 2018 in cleanup duty for Shea Patterson while setting up a Michigan TD (1 for 1 for 8 yards). The Illini don't have a lot of weapons and they haven't really scored many points until the floodgates opened against Nebraska last week. The good news is that Illinois did most of its damage on the ground, which Ohio State is pretty good at not allowing to happen. Swirling Champaign winds cut both ways, and even if the Ohio State passing game is a bit nerfed (hopefully not by throwing lobs into the middle of the field while falling down) the same breezes should prevent another fiasco in the Buckeye secondary. The good news is that the Silver Bullets won't see another team that can really put them to the test until the Playoff. The bad news is that we probably won't be able to tell until January what the results of that test will be (unless Michigan throws all over us, then it's time to start praying). OSU: 45--Ill: 20
Schweinfurth: Fix the defense! Look, last week was bad and they took their foot off the gas against Rutgers. Everyone take a breath. They are working on it. There were several miscommunications and  guys not knowing the play call (zone or man). This is a young secondary, and I think Indiana was a wake up call. Look for new rotations in the secondary (more Josh Proctor). On the offensive side of the ball, Fields just needs to settle down and stop forcing the ball. He was clearly trying to win the game with one thrown on every possession last week. The big plays will be there, but every play doesn't have to be a forced ball. This game should be a reset and hopefully not a wind tunnel as we tend to see in Champaign. Bucks bring the Illibuck back to Columbus. OSU: 45--Ill: 17

Upset Special
Draper: Nebraska over Iowa

Hoying: Oregon State over Oregon
Schweinfurth: LSU over TAMU

Week 12: Upstart Saturday

Standings:

1.) Hoying 10-3 (0-4 upset)

2.) Draper 9-4 (1-3 upset)
3.) Schweinfurth 8-5 (1-3 upset)

It's finally arrived. After Wisconsin and Penn State each proved themselves unworthy last year by tripping up before they could enter Columbus undefeated, we finally have football armageddon in the Shoe with an unblemished, top 10 ranked visitor. And just as we all expected, it's...Indiana.

Meanwhile, supremacy in the B1G West is on the line as well, as the conference's other historically awful member (no, not you, Rutgers, you have the awful but not the history) hosts the juggernaut Wisconsin Badgers to determine whether this year's Big Ten Championship will look like 2018 or every other year in recent memory.

And speaking of Rutgers, a rivalry is renewed in Piscataway as the Big Ten's snootiest rudderless program comes to town.

Out in (temporary) ACC world, the nation's hottest team faces their toughest remaining hurdle on their way to a probable earth-shattering rematch on Championship Saturday. [Post-publish note: one day Steven will learn to read a calendar.]

Also I guess there's a game of consequence in the Big 12, to the extent that conference still has games of consequence this season.

Wisconsin Badgers @ Northwestern Wildcats

Draper: The Badgers are the flavor of the week after their drubbing of a hapless Michigan team last week.  While Michigan is unbelievably bad, Wisconsin has shown to have some juice.  It appears that a win here means that COVID will be the only thing keeping the Badgers from Indy (...if you're Minnesota, do you 'shut the facility down' right before the axe game to ruin your rival?).  Northwestern is a surprising 4-0, but they are the traditional scrappy Wildcat team that no one really believes in...including me.  I don't expect the Badgers to be world beaters all year, but they are clearly athletically superior.  While the game is in Evanston, the Badgers are used to playing there with no fans, so that should prove no issue.  UW: 31--NW: 17
Hoying: How good is Wisconsin, really? Graham Mertz looked nigh-untouchable against the Illini, but, they're the Illini. Even against Michigan's terrible secondary he could only squeeze out 12-22 for 127 yards. Granted, a couple of those incompletions were near-fumbles by the receivers, but that just leads to additional problems against a ball-hawking team like Northwestern. The Cats continue to get it done on defense, and they continue to give the Badgers fits every time they come to Evanston. Let's not forget, though, that Northwestern is fresh off of an atrocious season offensively. They got a nice shot in the arm stealing Peyton Ramsey away from Indiana, but I don't think they can keep up with a Wisconsin attack that's shown it can win the games through the air or on the ground. Yeah, Michigan is bad, but when your fullbacks are salting the game away in the third quarter, you've got something working. Weird Northwestern voodoo keeps it close, but no cigar this time. UW: 24--NW: 20

Schweinfurth: First off, I got my B1G transfer QBs wrong and it should have been Peyton Ramsey for the Wildcats. With that out of the way, lets get to this game. From what I can tell, Wisconsin is the second best team in the B1G. The Badgers play tough defense and actually have a decent QB right now. The Wildcats are a tough out, but I just don't think they have the guns to pull this off. UW: 21--NW: 17

Michigan Wolverines @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Draper: Rivalry renewed! Not since Kyle Flood exited Piscataway have we seen a clash of these titans with such implications.  I'm actually surprised that the Wolverines are an ASTOUNDING 10.5 point favorite.  While Rutgers is still Rutgers, Michigan is not still Michigan.  Joe Milton has the physique and form of a stud QB, but he has not shown the mental aspect as of yet.  I have no idea how Michigan has looked this bad (cough...Don Brown...cough...Jim Harbaugh...).  Schiano has rejuvenated the Scarlet Knights back to the Golden Era of 2006 with some belief and a whole lot of stupid trick plays.  Expect another clown show (which will be hilarious when it's not happening vs. my team), but Michigan will steal one on the road.  Rutgers may be a year away from taking control of the sun and blue. TTUN: 31--RU: 20
Hoying: Two fun facts occurred to me about halfway through seeing Wisconsin go through Michigan like something through a tin horn. First: the last time Michigan didn't have Harbaugh as coach, they lost to Rutgers. We'll need to wait a year to test that one. Its corollary, however, is that the last time Michigan lost to Rutgers, their coach got fired. Now we're talking. Don't talk yourself out of believing in the suck. Even though they blasted the Minnesota mirage a month ago, there really is no bottom for this Wolverine team. They're not turning out fluky losses like Penn State. They couldn't even put away Michigan State, a team that's looked like eleven wet farts in a bag against every other team they've faced. Add a little Piscataway magic, a few tight sphincters on the Michigan sideline as jobs hang in the balance, and you've got the makings of an upset. I hate to break my streak of being wrong about every Michigan game we've picked this year, but I can't deny Rutgers their time to shine. TTUN: 20--RSUNJ: 21

Schweinfurth: This game will be fun to watch. In so much that I will be laughing the whole time. Rutgers plays hard and doesn't quit. Michigan plays hard until adversity shows up and then they quit. Schiano is going to pull out all the stupid crap from the Buckeyes game again. I don't see Michigan losing, but this could come down to the last possession. TTUN: 28--RU: 24

Oklahoma State Cowboys @ Oklahoma Sooners

Draper: To be honest, I forgot the Big 12 was still playing football.  After the Sooners have taken 2 losses, the conference is essentially eliminated from postseason contention.  The Pokes have a shot to sneak in if they keep winning, but Mike Gundy has been atrocious in this game since he's been in Stillwater. Spencer Rattler has been solid all year, and I expect more of the same.  Boomer! OkSt: 31--OU:45
Hoying: Last stop for the Big 12's playoff hopes. You want to know a secret? The Big 12 has been playing some great defense this year. Oklahoma State is the poster child, and the Sooners have been...OK, I guess? The Pokes have been playing with fire, with their last two wins coming by 2 and 3 points. Of course, those were over the two teams that beat Oklahoma, and Okie State contained both Iowa State and Kansas State in a way the Sooners just couldn't figure out. Can the Cowboys solve Spencer Rattler? He's not quite Mayfield-Murray-Hurts level, so there's always a chance. Gundy's overdue for a win in this series. Let's ride with Pistol Pete. OkSt: 31--OU: 30
Schweinfurth: The Big 12 is a mess, but I'm not sure OU is as bad as we think. They can put up some points, and will. OK State will try to slow this down with Chubba, but I think the Sooners win it late. OkSt: 38--OU: 42

Indiana Hoosiers @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: And we're back.  Here's hoping for no more COVID surprises (thanks a lot 2020).  The return is to Indiana....whee....wait, top TEN Indiana? I didn't know it was a game on the hardwood this week.  All low-hanging fruit jokes aside, this is one of, if not the, best Indiana teams of the modern era.  Are they a top 10 talent team? No.  Are they a serious competitor to Ohio State? No.  Are they capable of derailing the Buckeyes' season? Absolutely.  This is one of the reasons why I love Coach Day.  There is NO WAY he will let the team look past the Hoosiers. This team is laser-focused on the objective, and the successes of Indiana of late have prevented any deviance from the grind.  Justin Fields lost a week of 'wowing' the Heisman voters, so he'll try to take center stage once again.  I'm a little concerned about the Indiana defense, but is their success due to overrated opponents (hello Wolverines and Lions) or more talent (of likely both).  The Ohio State secondary will be tested by Michael Penix so we'll learn much concerning the development of the back 7.  Marcus Hooker needs to up the game a bit.  We need to mention the phenomenal play of Baron Browning as he's not getting enough pub.  Penix and Co. will come out on fire and will put up a few points (perhaps take a lead), but the Fields to Olave/Wilson connection will not be stopped.  Here's hoping the Teague/Sermon tandem ground game gets a little more juice.  IU: 27--OSU: 48
Hoying: I don't think it's an understatement to call this Indiana's biggest game since the 1968 Rose Bowl (maybe 1987 Michigan State). Win this and the Hoosiers are, barring a disaster, on a collision course with their first East division championship. There's just one problem. Throughout Indiana's storied history of Big Ten membership, which includes all of two conference titles, the Hoosiers have never won a Big Ten championship in a year in which they've played Ohio State. (Rather unlucky, then, that the Big Ten split into divisions in 2011. Now that Indiana plays Ohio State every single year, they may never win a conference crown again.) This year's version of Indiana has the look of a very good team that is improving week-to-week on a diet of bad opponents. They needed everything in the bag to accept a gifted win in week one against Penn State but have looked fairly dominant since then. Kind of reminds me of the trajectory Minnesota took last year, which peaked at knocking off Penn State before coming back to Earth during the rest of November. So, yeah, I would say Indiana is good enough right now to snakebite a 2019-level Penn State team. Unfortunately for them, while I still don't think this year's Buckeyes are as good as last year's (yet), they're still much better than 2019 Penn State. Here's a nasty little secret: Indiana can't run the ball. You thought the Buckeyes were having problems coping with the loss of J.K. Dobbins? Indiana is averaging 95.3 yards a game. Now, much like the Buckeyes, Indiana copes with this by leaning on their effective passing game. And that's fine if you can trot out otherworldly talents like Justin Fields, Chris Olave, and Garrett Wilson to fuel a blatantly unfair air attack. But while Michael Penix, Whop Philyor, and Ty Fryfogle are certainly no slouches, you're not going to beat Ohio State being one-dimensional. Whatever problems the Ohio State secondary has this year, they're not running anything resembling Michigan's "Zone Minus One" atrocity. Also, unlike Justin Fields, Penix isn't a run threat, especially since Indiana can't afford to lose him to a season-ending injury for the second year in a row. With last year's backup QB, Peyton Ramsey, gone to purpler pastures (see above), the loss of their star QB would dramatically diminish the potency of the Indiana offense. IU: 27--OSU: 55
Schweinfurth: Can anyone stop Ohio State's offense outside of Ohio State or a COVID shutdown? I really don't think so. Yes, the run game doesn't look like it did with Dobbins and Weber, but Teague falls forward and keeps the Bucks on schedule. Penn State and Kyle Clifford moved the ball at will on this Indiana defense, they just turned it over all day. Justin Fields should have a day here. I would bet on Olave and Wilson both going over 100 yards again. Teague should get his yards once the Hoosiers are forced to back off. Indiana has Ohio State's full attention and Day & Co. were given an extra 4 days to prepare for this one. Indiana may be the second best team in the B1G East, but OSU has lapped the field. IU: 21--OSU: 49

Upset Special
Draper: FSU over Clemson 

Hoying: UCF over Cincinnati
Schweinfurth: App St. over Coastal Carolina

Halfway Point: Quick Predictions

Just like that, the Big Ten regular season, i.e., the real college football season, is half over. Here are some quick predictions for the second half from your favorite prognosticators.

Question 1: Who will make the playoff?

Draper:

1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Notre Dame

Hoying:

1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Notre Dame

Schweinfurth:

1. Alabama
   
2. Ohio State
   
3. Clemson
   
4. Cincinnati
   

Question 2: Who will win the Heisman?

Draper: Justin Fields

Hoying: Mac Jones

Schweinfurth: Justin Fields

Question 3: How will Ohio State's season progress from here?

Draper: Buckeyes are slow out of the gate vs. the Hoosiers, but win by more than 2 TDs.  Illinois and Michigan State are nothing-burgers.  TTUN starts with a little juice and fire from the Wolverines, but a hot start by the Buckeyes puts any hope of an upset to bed.  Buckeyes return to Indy to face Wisconsin....again.  Once again, the Buckeyes have a sloppy quarter and the narrative swings in the favor of the Badgers...until "BUH GAWD!! THAT'S JUSTIN FIELDS MUSIC!! Buckeyes have a strong 2nd half to deal with the Badgers and return to the familiar spot vs. Clemson in the playoff...ugh. Now narrative street gets turned up to 11.  Can the Buckeyes defeat their Clemson nemesis? Fields outduels Lawrence and they head to Bama in the title.  Bama is a juggernaut entering the game never having been tested.  The game is a back and forth shootout with an Olave to Fields trick play TD to seal the win.  Saban retires to Aflac commercials, Dabo takes the Bama job (leading to the state of South Dabo --they renamed the state to keep him and it didn't work -- being burnt to the ground), and Fields is picked...number 2 in the draft behind Lawrence (thus avoiding the Jets).

Hoying: The Buckeyes will win comfortably over the Hoosiers, then demolish Illinois, Michigan State, and That School Up North on the way to their fourth straight Big Ten Championship game appearance. The Buckeyes will handle Wisconsin (or possibly, possibly Northwestern) to grab a Playoff spot, then win their first semifinal game since 2014, but come up short in the national championship against Alabama.

Schweinfurth: There will not be a close game left on the schedule until the B1G title game. Ohio State will play Wisconsin in a two possession game and win another B1G title. The Bucks will play in the National Semis against Clemson and get sweet, sweet revenge. They will then play Alabama to a shoot out where the last team with the ball will win. I'll go full homer and pick the Bucks.

Missing Indiana = Missing Indianapolis?

WARNING: THIS POST IS ALL DUMB SPECULATION AS TO WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF THE OHIO STATE / INDIANA GAME GETS CANCELLED. THE GAME IS CURRENTLY SCHEDULED TO BE PLAYED AND THERE IS NO INDICATION THAT IT WON'T BE. BUT DUMB CONSPIRACY THEORIES ABOUT INDIANA INTENTIONALLY DUCKING OHIO STATE ABOUND SO LET'S LOOK AT THE CONSEQUENCES.

Well, it finally happened. Some drag-along team got smacked with the virus and yanked a win away from Ohio State's already shortened season. This wouldn't normally be a problem (nobody's season was ever made or broken by a win over Maryland) except that each cancellation ticks down Ohio State's total games toward the dreaded six-game threshold for the Big Ten Championship. With only four games remaining, the Buckeyes need to play at least three of them to qualify for a trip to Indianapolis, and that's assuming they don't get to six wins but get jumped by another team in the division. The good news is we're already down to only one other realistic option to come from the East, the Indiana Hoosiers. Each other team already has a loss, and every team but Maryland already has two. The bad news is that the Hoosiers are already half a game up on Ohio State in the East standings, and they can afford two more COVID cancellations to Ohio State's one. Not only that, in the event next week's border war matchup between the Buckeyes and the Hoosiers falls by the wayside, Indiana has the edge in the tiebreakers as well. But how much would this matter in the hunt for the grand prize, a Playoff slot? Let's break it down.

BIG TEN TIEBREAKERS

You can read the Big Ten's weird 2020 tiebreakers yourself here but here's a short summary. In the event that the game between the Buckeyes and the Hoosiers is cancelled, but both play at least six games and finish undefeated, we go to the tiebreakers to determine the East's representative in the B1G Championship:

• Best winning percentage in conference games (same)
• Head-to-head winner (not applicable)
• Best winning percentage in division (same)
• Best results against 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th place East division members, in that order, moving on if both teams did not play the same team (same where applicable)
• Best winning percentage against all common conference opponents (same)
• Best cumulative conference winning percentage of non-divisional opponents (see below)
• Best results against 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th place West division members, in that order, not moving on if both teams did not play the same team (see below)
• Best overall winning percentage (same)
• Random draw

The only tiebreakers (other than random draw) that could separate Indiana and Ohio State are determined by their respective opponents in the West division. Whoever plays the better teams wins the tiebreaker. This is bad news for Ohio State, as Indiana's opponents, Wisconsin and Purdue, currently combine for 4-1, while Ohio State's opponents, Illinois and Nebraska, are currently parked at a combined 2-5, with only four weeks to make up the difference. Illinois isn't likely to win another game this year, while Wisconsin might not lose (other than to Indiana in this scenario). If, somehow, the cumulative records are tied as well, then the tiebreaker goes to whichever team has the win over the team that finished higher in the West. I can't imagine it'll be anyone other than Wisconsin, so Indiana takes the prize again.

WHAT IF THE BUCKEYES DON'T GO TO INDIANAPOLIS?

Long story short, we don't want the Indiana game to be cancelled if the Hoosiers keep rolling. And we don't want Ohio State to miss out on two more games and be ineligible for the Big Ten Championship entirely. Both of those scenarios end up in the same place, with an undefeated Ohio State on the outside looking in on Championship Saturday.

But is all really lost under such a scenario? Yes, Ohio State's dreams of an unprecedented 4th straight outright Big Ten Championship would be dusted, but would the Buckeyes be out of the running for the big enchilada? 

Keep in mind that even if the Buckeyes don't play in the B1G Championship, they still play a game on December 19th. In our scenario, as the second place (or first non-DQ'd) East team they would probably play the second place team from the West. The loser of this week's Wisconsin vs. Northwestern game would provide a good opportunity to pick up another quality win and boost Ohio State's playoff resume.

Would that boost be enough? Under our nightmare scenario of Indiana as Big Ten East Champion, how would Ohio State's resume stack up against Indiana's? The teams' respective unique wins would be as follows (unique opponents bolded):

For Indiana: Maryland, Wisconsin (unless they lose to Northwestern, in which case Ohio State probably plays them on December 19 and they become a common opponent), Purdue, and, likely, Wisconsin again

For Ohio State: Nebraska, Illinois, and, likely, Northwestern

You could see Nebraska somehow making a run to finish 4-3 or 5-2 (there are no great teams left on their schedule) but Illinois isn't turning the corner anytime soon, and the Buckeyes would get the Wisconsin/Northwestern loser in contrast to Indiana getting the winner. Indiana would have more wins against better opponents, and a conference championship to boot.

Nobody in their heart of hearts would really believe Indiana was better than Ohio State at that point (unless the Buckeyes really tail off and start winning ugly over the next month). And, unlike the Big Ten, the Playoff Committee has placed no restrictions on what a team must do to qualify for the Playoff. They're looking for the "four best teams," and while they'll consider factors like conference championships, we've already seen non-champions crash the party in 2016 and 2017 (even two from the same conference in 2017, hint, hint). The advanced statistics continue to love Ohio State (back to #1 in SP+ rankings after the idle week!) but are still pretty cool on Indiana, and the Buckeyes looked much better against the teams' common opponents so far (Penn State and Rutgers). Maybe the dreaded "eye test" would work in Ohio State's favor. Or maybe the Committee slots both in, if Florida, Texas A&M, Clemson, Oregon, and USC faceplant down the stretch (hahahaha go away Cincinnati).

POSSIBLE SAVING THROWS

There is a way that Ohio State could escape disqualification from the Big Ten Championship even if two more of their opponents get rona'd. As of November 5th, the Big Ten has approved a plan to allow two healthy teams with cancelled games to play each other in their suddenly open weekend. Despite Ohio State fans' whining about Kevin Warren being slow to put this plan into place, this couldn't have affected any of the Big Ten cancellations to date (notably, the only Big Ten team other than Ohio State who wasn't playing last Saturday was...Maryland), but this could mitigate future cancellations if half the conference outside Columbus gets down with the sickness. Hilariously, this rescheduling rule does not discriminate based on possible rematches; whoever's available and wants to play can suit up and go. Wouldn't it be fun to pulverize a disheartened Penn State again? Would you like two cracks at possibly the worst Michigan team in the past fifty years (ahahahaha like they would possibly agree to schedule such a game)? How about seeing another dozen zany plays from Rutgers? Maybe we could make up that Indiana game after all? The possibilities are...well, not endless, limited to twelver or so, but it's fun to imagine.

As for how Ohio State could salvage a cancellation of the Indiana game, you want to talk about hilarious scenarios? Suppose that Ohio State, though undefeated and otherwise eligible, gets locked out of the Big Ten Championship because the Indiana game gets cancelled. But suppose also that Wisconsin gets hit with the cancellation bug again, maybe against both Northwestern and Indiana, just so all four of those teams could stay undefeated, and can't make their way up to six games. 

That would give us 6-0 Indiana vs 7-0 Northwestern in Indianapolis with a hell of an undercard: 4-0 Wisconsin vs. 6-0 Ohio State.

Would anyone honestly rank the winner of the former ahead of the winner of the latter, just because they get the shiny trophy? 

Week 11: Terrapindemic

Standings:

1.) Hoying 9-3 (0-3 upset)

2.) Draper 8-4 (1-2 upset)
3.) Schweinfurth 7-5 (1-2 upset)

Trust us, a bye week is a blessing. You want all the time you can get to prepare for WWWIndiana.

We'll turn to the other games of consequence this weekend...what? Not a single ranked matchup? But Alabama is supposed to travel to LSU...whoops. Miami is playing Virginia Tech...oh.  Wisconsin is squaring off against Michigan...ahahahaha.

Fear not! We scrounged another undefeated matchup for you to devour, this time on the other side of the stately I-69 that divides our beloved conference in twain. 

Northwestern Wildcats @ Purdue Boilermakers

Draper: The game we have all been clamoring over is in....West Lafayette? I'm pretty confident the 0's in the loss column are more due to the opponents (hello Iowa) than their strengths.  It's really....REALLY hard to get excited about a B1G West clash, but it's 2020, so why not?  I guuuueeesssss I'll lean to the Wildcats who have beaten Maryland, but I can't pretend to have a good handle on this.  Roll the dice and see what hits.  Can Northwestern make it 2 out of 3 trips to Indy? Sure...why not.  NW: 31 -- PU: 24
Hoying: Don't laugh; this game could very well be a play-in to the Big Ten Championship, which could effectively make it a Playoff semifinal...semifinal?. With Nebraska falling flat against the Wildcats last week, and the Badgers a cough and a sneeze away from being disqualified from a trip to Indy, the winner of this game will suddenly find itself an effective 2 games up on the rest of the non-Wisconsin (play it louder) Big Ten West. Oh, and you probably already knew this, but both of these teams miss Ohio State this year, and Northwestern doesn't play Indiana, Penn State, or Michigan either! (YMMV on the merits of missing the last two.) Turning our eyes to the game at hand, how about that Northwestern ball-hawking defense? The Wildcats lead the nation (on per-game average) with 8 interceptions in their first 3 games. Northwestern was outgained by both Iowa and Nebraska but the turnovers have made the difference both times. Can lightning strike thrice? (quice?) Does it need to? The Boilers are still undefeated but needed a late red zone stop to finish off Illinois on Halloween. A COVID bye gave them an extra week to prepare for this game, but they're still missing their best weapon, WR Rondale Moore (*shudder*), who went down with a leg injury in early 2019. Purdue isn't out of weapons (hello, WR David Bell) but the Northwestern defense will be the difference. NU: 24--PU: 17
Schweinfurth: I really thought Nebraska would beat Northwestern last week, but the Wildcats surprised as they always do. This is almost the same Northwestern team with the exception of Brandon Peters (remember that guy Harbaugh forgot about). Turns out he is actually somewhat good when not caught up in that suck hole. I haven't watch much Purdue football, but they have weapons on the outside. Even with Rondale Moore on the MIA list. There is just something about Northwestern that says this is a year they challenge for the B1G West. This one will be close and the Wildcats get a late turnover for the win. NU: 31--PU: 28

Upset Special
Draper: Washington State over Oregon

Hoying: Michigan State over Indiana
Schweinfurth: BC over Notre Dame

[note: no points for picking a ranked team to beat an unranked team as an Upset Special but Michigan opened -3 against Wisconsin]

Zero Fun, Sir

"Why are you smiling?"
    "'Cause I love football. Football's fun."
"Fun, sir. It's fun?"
    "Yes."
"You sure?"
    "I think so -"
"Now you're thinkin'. First you smile, then you think. You think football is still fun?"
    "Uh, yes."
"Sir."
    "Yes-no, sir."
"No?"
    "Um, it was fun."
"Not any more though, is it? Is it?"
    "Not right now, no."
"No, it's not fun anymore. Not even a little bit."
    "Uh... no."
"Make up your mind. Think, since you're thinkin'. Go on, think. Is it fun?"
    "No, sir."
"No? Absolutely not?"
    "Zero fun, sir."

- Me talking to other Ohio State fans (only I don't usually call them "sir")

In 2015, the Ohio State Buckeyes went 12-1. They opened the season by avenging a championship season loss to Virginia Tech in convincing fashion, and finished the year by walloping a #10 Michigan by 29 and smashing #8 Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl.

And it was the most miserable season of Ohio State football since the interregnum in 2011.

Oh sure, there were other high points like destroying Penn State in the Shoe's first blackout. But all season long, the only thing Buckeye fans wanted to talk about was "Why aren't they killing everybody?"

Coming into 2015, the Buckeyes had just finished what was probably the greatest 3-game stretch in its history, knocking off Wisconsin, Alabama, and Oregon in impressive fashion to climb the ladder to the team's 8th, and most improbable, national championship. If anything, the team was supposed to be better in 2015 after losing almost no key players from 2014's title run. But though the defense continued at championship pace, the Buckeyes never found their identity on offense until it was too late.

How much fun was 2003, watching another defending national champion return 75% of their starters only to eke out 11 nailbiting wins and a BCS bowl victory?

And how much fun are you having now, fresh off possibly the most dominant season in Ohio State history, with 2020 Ohio State skating by with wins by 35, 13, and 22 points?

Wait. One of those things is not like the other.

3 games into the season, the Buckeyes haven't been seriously threatened in any of their games. The latest they've trailed was 6:55 into the first quarter of the Nebraska game, which is also the only time they've trailed all season. The latest they've been up by single digits was 6:18 into the second half against Penn State. Despite the lackluster final score against Rutgers, the Buckeyes led 42-9 entering the bizarro trick play-centric fourth quarter.

R-E-L-A-X

No, the running game probably isn't as good as last year's. But it's hard to tell when Justin Fields has a grand total of 20 non-sack carries so far and the team's game plan seems to be built around crafting a masterful Heisman propaganda campaign. No, the defense doesn't appear to be on the same level as last year's brick wall. But 30 of the 69 points they've surrendered this year have been in the fourth quarter, when the outcome of the game is no longer seriously in doubt. (They've also held their opponents to an astounding 0 for 6 on two point conversions, which should help frustrate any comeback attempts by future teams.) Why so serious? This team doesn't have to be perfect at this point. At what point did you think the 2014 Buckeyes were championship caliber? If your answer is any time before November, you're lying. At what point were you convinced that the 2002 Buckeyes were going to win the national title? If your answer is any time before halftime of the Fiesta Bowl, you're either lying or you were too naïve to know any better (like I was back then).

Give the secondary time to find their footing. Give Master Teague time; Zeke didn't blow up until the second half of 2014, and Dobbins was downright pedestrian in 2018. And just enjoy the season no matter what comes. Not everything has to be national title or bust. Two months ago we lived in despair that we wouldn't get to see this team play at all. We still have a chance to ruin Indiana's best season in 50 years. We still have a chance to lay a Rich Rod era style beat down on That Team Up North. And yes, in a season in which no team looks invincible (except maybe Alabama), there's still a great chance to take the glorious golden lipstick home a second time. Zero excuses not to have fun, sir.

Week 10: November Is for Contenders

 Standings:

1.) Draper 6-1 (1-1 upset)
1.) Schweinfurth 6-1 (1-1 upset)

1.) Hoying 6-1 (0-2 upset)

The Pac-12 returns (except in Berkeley, lol), the Big Ten features another ranked matchup, and the Power 5 continues their Sisyphean quest for that elusive 4th playoff spot. Yup, it's November, Buckeye Nation. Buckle up for excitement, although not much (hopefully) for the Silver Bullets over the next few weeks.

FRIDAY NIGHT

Brigham Young Cougars @ Boise State Broncos

Draper: BYU is the non-power 5 team du jour that everyone expects to make get blasted by the 1 seed in the playoff and it might just happen.  Zach Wilson has been very good against the competition he's faced, so it will be interesting how he performs on a bigger stage.  Boise is that scrappy team that just never goes away, but I'm not sure they have the horses (pun intended) in this one.  This will be the Cougars biggest challenge, but I think they squeak through on the Smurf Turf.  BYU: 41 -- Boise: 37
Hoying: Did you know that some teams outside of Rose Bowl World have actually been playing football since the normal start of the season? And that two of them have already racked up 7 wins? One of those 7-win teams is Clemson, and you may be surprised to know that the other is BYU, the only non-Power 5 team in modern history to win a national championship. With no conference championship to look forward to, the Cougars are only 3 games (and a Cincinnati loss) away from, at worst, a New Year's Six bid. And they've looked good on their way, blowing up their (admittedly weak) competition. Boise is Boise, showing no signs of slowing down after another easy MWC championship last year. BYU prevented the Broncos from parlaying that league title into a NY6 bid last year, and with Heisman contender (?!) Zach Wilson at QB and a suffocating defense to match, they'll do it again.  BYU: 31--Boise: 24
Schweinfurth: From what I can tell, Boise has struggled against a few teams, but keeps winning. BYU, I just don't know a lot about. Boise just has that knack to be annoying all year. BYU: 35--Boise: 42

SATURDAY

Michigan Wolverines @ Indiana Hoosiers

Draper: Wow....this game is surprisingly difficult.  Windiana has looked pretty good in back to back weeks, and Michigan has split the difference.  UM was a dumpster fire against Sparty last week which made little sense.  I didn't expect a Paul Bunyan beatdown from TTUN, but I also didn't see the massive bed-pooping that we saw.  Joe Milton is freaking huge, but he doesn't seem to have all the elements of a great QB yet.  I'll give the edge to Indiana in the quarterback play category, but I don't know if that will be enough.  Can the Hoosiers deal with success? I'm guessing the Wolverine superior athletes will carry the day.  TTUN: 20 -- IU: 17
Hoying: Welcome back to the Big Ten, featuring a really good team (Ohio State), a couple of really bad teams (Illinois and Minnesota), and a whole bunch of "I dunno" in the middle. Is Indiana really the 13th best team in the country? Last year, the Hoosiers' ceiling was a lot higher before they lost Michael Penix to a season ending injury (right before playing Michigan and Penn State) and he's continued to be a difference maker this year. Penn State bottled him, and the rest of the Indiana O, up for a good 3 quarters before his late game theatrics, and the Lions largely beat themselves with mistakes. Can Indiana really beat Michigan strength-on-strength? Maybe. The Wolverine secondary is...lacking, and Indiana has something called a Whop Philyor to spread all over the field. Michigan is also into year six of "When will Harbaugh actually find a workable QB?", and this year's version is a dump truck who can't throw downfield. That being said, the lines will still favor Michigan (even if boneheaded play calling negates their offensive advantage); there's a reason the Hoosiers haven't won this game in over 30 years. Michigan is the safe choice, so, go with Michigan. TTUN: 31--IU: 24
Schweinfurth: Who are the real Wolverines? They looked like world beaters in their demolition of Minnesota, but not so much against Michigan State. Indiana, on the other hand, has beat Penn State and Buttgers. Indiana is the "Chaos" team and probably better coached, but I just can't pick them to beat the Wolverines. TTUN: 31--IU: 28

Florida Gators vs. Georgia Bulldogs

Draper: The Cocktail Party has lost some luster over the years, but the Gators return to relevance should make for some fun football.  After the brawl broke out last week, Florida is down a slew of players (and maybe a head coach?), but a major traffic accident has removed Georgia's star safety.  I'd posit that UF has a slight edge at QB, but  the defensive edge swings to the Dawgs.  I honestly don't know what to expect as UGA's offense was inept last week, but I do hate the Gators... UF: 24 -- UGA:27 
Hoying: Hoo boy. Another one of these "offense vs. defense" games. Thing is, we've already seen Georgia in one of these games this year. And they were, to put it charitably, not quite ready for primetime. Stetson Bennett looked good, for a half, and then the wheels fell off like it does for 99% of teams that play Alabama. And it'll take more than the usual Kirby Smart sputtering Georgia offense to keep up with Kyle Trask and Kyle Pitts. Without a single Kyle on their roster, the Bulldogs just don't have the power to keep up (only Texas A&M did, because of their field). The Gators take a commanding lead in their chase to lose to Bama in Atlanta for the millionth time (and by a margin of, well, you know). UF: 23--UGA: 20
Schweinfurth: Georgia's offense has been missing this year. It's almost like their future QB transfered... Florida though, is in big trouble after that fight last week. Multiple players are out for the first half and Georgia can take advantage of those missing players. If that happens, Georgia can get out to a quick lead and then just play defense from there. UF: 21--UGA: 28

Clemson Tigers @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Draper: I'm planting my flag here.  Clemson is really good.  Not kinda good; not 'good with Trevor Lawrence'; really really good.  DJ Uiagalelei wasn't nearly on Lawrence's level, but he was still very strong in his first game.  And, oh yeah, everyone else on Clemson is solid.  Notre Dame has been flaky all year (except when Hoying picks them to be upset), and I just can't see that changing vs. this juggernaut.  Clemson will rebound from the close win (they did get lucky) over Boston College (like they always do) and smash the Irish.  I don't think this will be close.  Clem: 38 -- ND: 20
Hoying: Remember the last time these teams played? Weren't we all thankful that Notre Dame finished 12-0 so they could get backhanded by the national champs in the Playoff instead of letting Ohio State have another crack at immortality? Well, I have bad news for the Irish this year: they're probably going to have to beat Clemson twice to get back into the Playoff this year. And they totally could, the Irish are good, no doubts there. It's just that Clemson has superstars at every. single. position (remind you of anyone?). And that includes QB; do you really think that the Tigers have been sitting around for 3 years watching Trevor Lawrence skate backwards to ACC titles and not give a single thought as to who his successor would be? Mixmaster DJ Ukulele found his footing awfully quick against Boston College, and even if he didn't, Travis Etienne is going to be a problem running the ball, catching the ball. And the defense is (almost) as good as ever. This one should be close, but Clemson isn't losing until they want to, Lawrence or no Lawrence. Clem: 27--ND: 24
Schweinfurth: Clemson escaped last week. There is no way around it, but they did what great programs do. They may adjustments and took over the game in the second half. I'm still not sold on Notre Dame being this elite of a program. To me, their ranking is inflated due to the delays in the B1G and Pac-12 seasons. Even without Lawrance, Clemson should assert their dominance. Clem: 42--ND: 17

Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: I was really hoping that Rutgers would enter the Shoe with a B1G East tie with the Buckeyes, but alas...  There's not a whole lot to say here.  The Buckeyes should smash here, but Day may lay off a bit in the end.  I'm surprised how much of these games that Fields is playing, but I think he gets a 4th quarter breather here.  Fields to Olave is the best battery in the country and will continue to impress pro scouts.  The Scarlet Knights might get an early takeaway to give a touch of hope, but Schiano should take a picture of the scoreboard early, because the inevitable is coming for you.  Wilson and Olave both break the 100 yard mark (for the 3rd time this season), Fields keeps his 1:1 ratio of TDs scored to incompletions with 4 more, Sermon and Teague both have nice outings, and we move on.  I also anticipate 2 turnovers and 1 defensive score.  Bucks send Greg Schiano to a VERY 'nice' career record.  Buttgers: 10 -- OSU: 62
Hoying: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ It's Rutgers. I mean, we're back to Greg Schiano Rutgers, most famous for screwing Ohio State out of the 2006 National Championship by beating Louisville on a last minute field goal and allowing Florida to sneak into Glendale instead. And their roster is full of castaways who have actually played in other programs, as opposed to those who never got recruited by anyone else. I mean, even Maryland pushed Ohio State to the brink of defeat 2 years ago, so anything is possible, right? No. It's Rutgers. Look for the Buckeyes to find a serviceable field goal kicker and a reliable slot cornerback to replace Cameron Brown. And look for points. Lots of points. For one team only. RSUNJ: 10--OSU: 59
Schweinfurth: So this game is a thing. Let me just put out an appreciation for Chris Olave. The dude is so smooth and reliable. Need a long third down conversion? Olave is open. Need to take a deep shot? Olave will make the play. The receiver room has had great players, but I can't think of a guy that makes this many plays on a regular basis. In another note, I would like to see the ground game get going this week. Let's see Teague and Sermon get over 100 each and ground the Knights into submission. Name your score on this game and please, no injuries. Buttgers: 13--OSU: 56

Upset Special
Draper: Stanford over Oregon
Hoying: Baylor over Iowa State
Schweinfurth: WVU over Texas

Week 9: Knock Knock

Standings:
1.) Draper 4-1 (1-0 upset)
1.) Hoying 4-1 (0-1 upset)
1.) Schweinfurth 4-1 (0-1 upset)

We hope you enjoyed all the ranked matchups last weekend, because you're getting a total of one this weekend, and it's the game you were all going to watch anyway. That's why ESPN College Gameday is still coming to State College, despite the fact that another the Nittany Lions got caught looking ahead to Ohio State and crashed and burned the week before (no biggie, it's not like an undefeated powerhouse did the exact same thing last year). You can't even blame conference COVID panic for this one, as the only conference that hasn't started back up is the Pac-12, which features a whopping 2 ranked teams. 

But at Let's Go Bucks! we strive to bring you the content you crave. For your reading enjoyment, we've included analysis of one more game, this week's only clash of undefeated teams (not counting teams that haven't played yet). One team has snuck into the rankings for the second time in the last 25 years, and the other might as well have joined them the way this year has gone so far. 

Indiana Hoosiers @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights 

Draper: Everyone knew there would be a battle of undefeated teams vying for 1st place in the B1G East and here we are.  Both Rutgers and Indiana may have won last week due to some mistakes by their opponents (7 turnovers Sparty?), but could this be a Creation of Penix for a new era? Prooooobably not....but this year could get weird.  I just can't buy into Buttgers.  While I'd love it to have undefeated powerhouse Rutgers enter the Shoe, the Hoosiers are hoping for a magical year after taking down a 'top 10 team'.  Both teams are coming off their biggest (only?) win in the last few years so I don't see a hangover advantage either way.  Schiano is reminding the Scarlet Knigths that it's ok to win, but it won't be enough.  Windiana > Buttgers.  IU: 38 -- RSUNJ: 20
Hoying:  One of these teams will find themselves tied or even alone at the top of the Big Ten East standings heading into November, just like we all thought back in February. Both of these teams come into this game off of wins that were kind of fluky. Rutgers benefited from seven Michigan State turnovers (including five fumbles lost), while Indiana...well, Penn State's mistakes in that game defy description but we can try our best anyway: three missed FGs, two INTs setting up short fields for Indiana, and an all-time clock management boner to give the Hoosiers one last chance to send the game to overtime in the first place. I don't think either of these teams is as good as they looked last week, but at least Indiana sucked out against an actual quality opponent while Rutgers was playing pat-a-cake against a Big Ten basement contender. The Scarlet Knights' defense somehow managed to make Rocky Lombardi look good. Michael Penix is going to look even better. IU: 45--RSUNJ: 28
Schweinfurth: I can't pick Buttgers with a straight face until they actually have a pulse in the B1G. What makes this game most interesting is the potential for a let down by Indiana. Let's be honest here. Rutgers has been so bad for so long that one Schiano recruiting class isn't going to fix things. Indiana is the better team, but the letdown keeps the Scarlet Knights around longer than they should. IU: 35--RSUNJ: 28

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions

Draper: The other top ten, undefeated matchup is the perceived biggest roadblock on the Buckeyes' quest to repeat.  While this may no longer be the case, Penn State won't be a pushover.  The Buckeyes looked pretty good against Nebraska, but there were some flaws (run blocking and defensive brainfarts).  The Lions' QB isn't as mobile as Martinez which is a major plus, but OSU will certainly draw the PSU's best game.  Injuries to Olave and Cain loom large for each team, but I have faith in the depth at OSU WR more than the depth at PSU RB (and I think Olave plays).  Overall, the difference is Fields and the well-oiled passing offense that simply isn't going to be stopped.  The pass blocking has been phenomenal and the battery of Fields to <insert awesome receiver name here> should carry the day.  OSU: 41 -- PSU: 24
Hoying: I don't think 2020 Penn State is a bad team, or even a mediocre team. Their fluky loss to Indiana was exactly that, a fluke. It featured the kind of brain farts we've come to expect from the Nittany Lions in recent years (nice zone read on 4th and 5) but it's not like very good Ohio State teams are immune to those mistakes either. But the thing is, with the disappearance of RB Journey Brown and the doubtful status of RB Noah Cain, not to mention the departure of Micah Parsons and the other pieces they've lost on defense, I don't think 2020 Penn State is as good as 2019 Penn State. And Ohio State beat Penn State quite comfortably last year, fumble bug aside. I'm not sure that 2020 Ohio State is as good as 2019 Ohio State either, but they are still elite, a word that hasn't applied to Penn State since the glory days of the JoePa era. Justin Fields won't be throwing against air this week, and he'll need to take care not to hold on to the ball too long, but I'm not picking anyone to stop or even slow down this offense until I see the white pawprints on the orange helmets. As for the defense, they sometimes need a week to settle down (remember 21 points from Florida Atlantic last year?) but the line should find opportunities against Penn State's front (as long as they keep containment on Clifford) and we'll see how good the secondary is at containing PSU's "Five hundred!" offense now that Okudah, Fuller, and Arnette are out of the picture. I'm not terribly concerned. OSU: 38--PSU: 20
Schweinfurth: This is not the Penn State team we would have seen in a normal year. No Journey Brown and no Micah Parsons are huge losses for Lions. Sean Clifford is back, but he's not Justin Fields. Ohio State's receivers are just sick. Those dudes are a mismatch for everyone in the B1G. Don't forget there's no White Out this time which is usually a HUGE advantage for the kittens. The Buckeyes should have little problem with in not so Happy Valley this year. Just work  on defending the QB run a bit better and it's all good. OSU: 45--PSU: 21

Upset Special
Draper: Missouri over COVID Florida
Hoying: Arkansas over Texas A&M
Schweinfurth: Texas over OK State

Hey, Penn State. Knock knock.

    Who's there?

Owen.

    Owen who?

0 and 2!

Week 8? Week 1? Return of the Buckeyes

Welcome back, Buckeye Nation. We hope you have enjoyed the extended preseason of exhibition games, featuring some impressive performances by some southern team with numbers on their helmets and some other program coached by one of the first team's former players. But now the meat and potatoes of the 2020 college football schedule can begin. The B1G is back in a big way, and the spotlight isn't brighter anywhere than Columbus, Ohio, as the Playoff Committee desperately searches for a reason not to send 3 SEC teams to Pasadena and New Orleans.

Michigan Wolverines @ Minnesota Golden Gophers

Draper: It's good to be back.  Welcome in to the oldest rivalry in college football.   Normally, you'd expect Michigan to just overwhelm Minnesota with sheer talent, but while the Gopher's are rowing the boat, Michigan players are jumping off faster than ever. While the Buckeyes have players fleeing back to OSU, the Wolverines can't leave fast enough.  I actually think a fully stocked Michigan team would win going away, but this shell with no McCaffery, Collins, etc. will struggle.  I like the Gophers to snag the Little Brown Jug and help ease Michigan fans into the recognition that it's over before it began.  Mich: 17--Minn: 24
Hoying: Beating ranked teams on the road really isn't Michigan's bag, baby. And yet they find themselves favored to dump the Big Ten's recent upstart program in Minneapolis despite the fact that they've lost (i) the former presumed heir to Shea Patterson's throne of mediocrity (Dylan McCaffrey), (ii) their best WR (Nico Collins) and (iii) four of last year's starters on the O-line. This offense took until halftime of the Penn State game last year to figure out which direction was downfield, and now they have to start all over again, other than their adequate stable of running backs. Meanwhile, lurking on the other sideline are one of top QB-WR combos in the conference, maybe even the nation, in Tanner Morgan and Rashod Bateman. Antoine Winfield, Jr. isn't anchoring the Gopher D anymore and the unit as a whole should take a step back from last year, so we'll see how long Josh Gattis needs to break in a new Wolverine offense again. I'm usually pretty bullish on the Wolverines (except the Notre Dame game last year, whoops) but I'm thinking it will take more than one week. Mich: 20--Minn: 23
Schweinfurth: No spring football and a new quarter back for the Harboogers? That's a problem. The Rowboaters return most of their offense and seem to have the better coaching staff (yea, I went there). While the wolverines have the "better recruits," I do think that the Gophers have the better team. The Little Brown Jug heads back to the Land of 10,000 Lakes. Mich: 24--Min: 30

Iowa State Cyclones @ Oklahoma State Cowboys

Draper: Oh goody...a Big 12 match of who cares? Oklahoma St. is carrying the torch for the Big 12 after all the other teams crapped the bed in spectacular fashion, but it seems like we're just waiting for the presumptive shoe to drop.  No one believes they're that great...they just haven't tripped yet.  That being said, I don't necessarily see the Clones as a world beater either.   I think I'll lean on the Pokes keeping the dream alive a bit longer.  The mullet has to be worth something, right? ISU: 24 -- OkSt: 38
Hoying: The Big 12 has never sent a team to a Playoff championship, and it doesn't look that that trend is in jeopardy this year, either. Four weeks into the B12 season, only five teams have yet to accumulate 2 losses, and two of those teams have losses to Sun Belt teams. However, a loss to Sun Belt powerhouse Louisiana hasn't stopped Iowa State from climbing to the top of the Big 12 standings, where they face off against the conference's only remaining undefeated squad, the Oklahoma State Cowboys. The Cowboys' offense has been a bit off so far in this young season, but that could be attributed to the Big 12's odd decision to scavenge the defense that the SEC and ACC decided they wouldn't be using this season. Not that Iowa State has much room to talk; they scored 14 points in that brutal opening loss to the Ragin' Cajuns. Oklahoma State should be nice and rusty rested after last week's game against Baylor was postponed, so I'll ride with the Cowboys at home. ISU: 20--OKSt: 27
Schweinfurth: I have watched more Big 12 football this year than I have in a long time. My biggest takeaway? This league plays some bad football. I really don't trust any of these teams. The Cyclones are known for those wild upsets. Really though, I just don't see it happening. ISU: 21--OKState: 35

 

North Carolina State Wolfpack @ North Carolina Tar Heels

Draper: The problem of picking ranked games is that you have to pick ranked games between two mirages.  The powerhouse Noles took down the plucky Tarheels in Tally last week proving that the #5 ranking was a joke (easy to see by anyone watching football).  The Wolfpack are....a team that plays football, I guess? I know nothing about them.  While UNC isn't super special, they are a decent 15-25 ranked team that should be able to take down the cross state rival.  NCSt: 20 -- UNC: 31
Hoying: One of the unfortunate effects of the Big Ten and Pac-12 delaying their starts is some poll voters are only listing teams on their ballots that have actually played football already. This leads to unfortunate circumstances like UNC - NC State being a ranked matchup. This...rivalry...I guess? (it doesn't have a name despite these teams being in the same conference and same state and having almost the same name) hasn't had much of an impact on anything ever and that isn't fixing to change this year. NC State has been good enough in recent memory to validate analysts' constant propping them up as a dark horse contender the ACC Atlantic division, but it's still Clemson's world out there east of the Alabama-Georgia border (sigh). As for this one, Wolfpack QB Devin Leary is out for the foreseeable future, and while UNC is nowhere near top 5 caliber (my reaction to them being ranked ahead of Ohio State last week), their offense is good enough to dispatch NC State and stay in the ACC title game hunt (not the ACC title hunt though). NCSU: 27--UNC: 30 
Schweinfurth: I still don't understand how UNC was ranked as a top 5 team (there was a lot of ranking inflation without the B1G and Pac12). They are a good team that won't put a scare into Clemson, but should be good enough the beat the Wolfpack. Yea, they had issues last week, but the 'Heels should be good enough to pull this one out. NCSU: 31--UNC: 35

Cincinnati Bearcats @ Southern Methodist Mustangs

Draper: Are we....Are we really doing this? Two group of five teams that no one cares about? Ok, Ok, Cincy might have stirred the pot a bit in a non-COVID year, but no one seriously expected a playoff push.  Luke Fickell has put together a nice culture in the Lard of Chili and seems to have kept the ball rolling.  The Bearcats are arguably the best Group of Five team out there so I can see them going undefeated and completely ignored come playoff time (likely as they should be).  Unfortunately, there is really nothing they can do with their schedule that will rock the boat.  Regardless, I think they handle the Mustangs so long as there aren't more COVID scares.  UC: 34 -- SMU: 17
Hoying: What do these teams have in common? After the postponement of SMU's game against TCU, it's likely that neither one of these teams will play a Power 5 school this fall. In other words, it doesn't matter at all that these teams are undefeated and ranked in the top 16; they aren't sniffing the Playoff unless every SEC team except Alabama is 5-5. But it's still fun to watch SMU try to score lots of points and Luke Fickell's Bearcats try to stop them. Look, UC QB Desmond Ridder isn't going to light the world on fire. But the 'Cats picked off 5 passes last time they saw the field and held Army to 182 rushing yards the week before. The Ponies will be penned up in this one. UC: 31--SMU: 24
Schweinfurth: Cincinnati is the better team here. SMU can move the ball, but this is a Luke Fickell team. They will play good defense and all they need to do is slow the Mustangs down. UC: 28--SMU:20

Nebraska Cornhuskers @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: Welcome home, boys.  I'm so excited we get the privilege of seeing this Buckeye team again.  While last year was heart-breaking, I don't expect to see a team with a bigger chip on their shoulder/statement to make than the 2020 Buckeyes.  This may lead to some sloppy play at the beginning which might scare a few Buckeye faithful, but when this machine gets rolling, get out of the way.  Fields, Olave, Wilson, and Teague are going to feast on a Nebraska team who is going to regret pushing for a season.  Defensively, the real focus should be on the impact of Kerry Combs return to the sideline.  Along with Shaun Wade's surprising return, Coach Coombs was a HUGE get by Day and Co. (and maybe for the receiving corps). Expect the Bucks to make a statement to the Clemson's and Bama's of the college football landscape: We're back, we're hungry, and we're coming for you.  (On a related note: OSU Hype Video Team>>>>>>>>>) Neb: 20 -- OSU: 62
Hoying: I'm sure that you, like me, are still not over it. We (most of us) believed that the Buckeyes had what it takes to defeat Clemson. We found that it was we who were mistaken...about a great many things. Everything that transpired did so according to Dabo's design. An entire legion of his best players awaited us. Only now, at the end of the longest offseason in history, do we understand. But Scott Frost and Ryan Day are here to put us back on schedule, and after 10 months of stewing in the "what could have been" for perhaps the most complete Ohio State team of all time, the returning players' hate has made them powerful. You want this matchup, don't you? The hate is swelling in you now. Nebraska is unarmed. Strike them down, and our journey toward a redemptive national championship will be...well commenced. It is unavoidable. It is our destiny. It may be that our overconfidence is our weakness, since we've lost our three starting WRs, a 2000 yard stud in JK Dobbins, and consensus All Americans both in the defensive backfield and more often than not in opponents' offensive backfields, not to mention pretty much all of the rest of the DBs and D-Line. But the Silver Bullets' deflector shield will be quite operational when the Cornhuskers arrive. Adrian Martinez's feeble skills are no match for the power of Kerry Coombs. Now witness the power of this fully armed and operational juggernaut offense! Neb: 17--OSU: 52
Schweinfurth: This is a mismatch all over the place. Yes, both teams led the charge to get B1G football back, but the Buckeyes are the team with the most to play for. Talent does not equate here. I'm excited for Ohio State football. The kids are excited for Ohio State football (they've only been asking for the last two months). Let's get this kicked off. Neb: 13--OSU: 62

Upset Special
Draper: Indiana over Penn State
Hoying: Pittsburgh over Notre Dame
Schweinfurth: Illinois over Wisconsin

Counting Our Playoff Chickens

Now that the fifth column power conference, the Pac-12, has limped back into the 2020 fold as well, it's time to create our dream playoff scenarios. Honestly, you can't create a better field than last year's, with Ohio State lined up to play their greatest modern foe, Clemson, and then their turncoat quarterback Joe Burreaux, in back-to-back games. What can we cook up this year?

Scenario 1: Restoring the schedule.

After playing some lackluster out-of-conference opponents over the last two seasons, the Buckeyes finally had a hotly anticipated trip to the Autzen Zoo to play the Oregon Ducks this season. And while September has come and gone with no feathered trophy to show for it, we could see a restoration of the game in Pasadena on New Year's Day if we're lucky (no chance of facing Oregon in the championship). Then the Buckeyes can play Alabama or whomever for the title. This would be nice, but Oregon's not so much an intriguing opponent as a brightly colored bug that it's fun to squish every decade or so. No team has lost to Ohio State as many times (nine times) without a win as the Ducks. 

Scenario 2: S-E-C! S-E-C!

You've seen how the Big 12 is doing so far. Poorly. One of the disadvantages of being one of the few conferences to keep any nonconference games is that when you lose to the cupcake teams it really makes your teams' SOS look bad. The nonconference part of the schedule has likely come to an abrupt end with Baylor's game against Houston being postponed, and the Big 12 went 5-3 as a conference, including a borderline unforgivable 0-3 against the Sun Belt. And one of those three losses was dealt to Kansas State, the team that just knocked off Oklahoma. There are now three undefeated Big 12 teams: Oklahoma State, Baylor, and Texas. Anyone want to buy in to one of these contenders?

We've already discussed the Pac-12. They have zero room for error and don't really have a standout team except for Oregon or maybe USC (has to be their year sometime, right)?

The ACC is not getting 2 teams in, and the Big Ten probably isn't either.

That leaves...*ethereal cry of PAWWWWWWLLLLLLL resonates from the walls*.

Yes, despite the fact that Ohio State has won its last two big-time matchups against SEC teams, there remains a pernicious myth that the Southeastern Conference remains the Buckeyes' kryptonite. What better way to put the haters and losers in their place then by dispatching the SEC runner-up in Pasadena and the big kahuna in Miami? Triple bonus points if they're LSU and Florida.

Scenario 3: REVENGE!

No Buckeye losses in the last 20 years have stung as much as the beating Florida put on the 2006 team and the heartbreaker Clemson unleashed last December. Especially galling is that Ohio State has faced both of those teams multiple times this century but has never beaten either of them. What better sendoff for the 2020 season than for Ohio State to get sweet justice for two stolen national championships?

Or, if you prefer, since this season is shaping up to be even wackier than the nutty 2007 campaign, swap in LSU so the Buckeyes can right that wrong. (Spoiler alert: LSU is not going to the Playoff no matter how many times I say it how badly I would love Ohio State to wipe the floor with them.)

Scenario 4: In-Season Rematch

This one you can file under dream scenarios => nightmare. 9-0 Ohio State dispatches 8-1 Michigan (or Penn State or Wisconsin or whatever) and there aren't 3 other teams strong enough to nab playoff spots. Welcome to rematch city, which could even take place in the championship if the Buckeyes end up at #2 or #3. Grosssss.

2020 Schedule, Take Three

Thanks to the shortened season, the Buckeyes no longer have time to open the season against Bowling Green or close with Iowa (eww), as two separate previous schedules would have prescribed. Each team will still play 9 conference games, but the division champs won't get a 10th as per the recent status quo. Here are some thoughts on the revised schedule.

No Days Off

Due to the Big Ten's hemming and hawing over the better part of the month, the 2020 season will be packed into a very short timeframe spanning less than 2 months. Accordingly, every week is needed, with no room for byes or off weeks. This is not unheard of; bye weeks only became a regular staple of Ohio State seasons during the Cooper years, and the Buckeyes played entire full 12-game schedules in 2006, 2007, and 2009 with no bye weeks either. But it does mean there is no room for error. The Houston Cougars have seen their first 4 games of the 2020 season postponed or cancelled through no fault of their own: all 4 opponents have been sidelined by the virus. The Buckeyes can ill afford any many cancellations if they want to preserve their playoff resume, especially considering that...

The Schedule Kind of Sucks

There's no denying that Ohio State plays the easiest schedule in the Big Ten every year, by virtue of being the only team guaranteed not to play Ohio State. But this year's schedule is particularly...lacking. Half of this is a function of playing in the B1G East. You're going to see Indiana, Maryland, and Rutgers year in and year out (thanks, Jim Delany). Michigan State doesn't look to be particularly threatening this year, either. But the Buckeyes' scheduled crossover opponents are no prize themselves. On on the one hand, you have the Buckeyes' most historic rival, the Fighting Illini, who other than snakebiting the Badgers last year did a whole lot of nothing in the 2010s. Then there's Nebraska, who we'll charitably say is having a bit of a rough go adjusting to the Scott Frost era. Their most dangerous player, JD Spielman, has left town, and they're not going to have any time to find their footing before opening their season in Columbus (at least the crowd noise won't be a factor). But enjoy that opener, Buckeye Nation, and the subsequent trip to Penn State on Halloween. This may be the worst November in Ohio State football history,* "featuring" Rutgers, Maryland, Indiana, and Illinois. At least there's a wooden turtle at the end of the tunnel. If the Buckeyes don't have any glitzy wins against Penn State or Michigan, or worse, the B1G championship falls by the wayside, you're going to hear a lot of grumbling about cupcake schedules. It won't matter much as long as the Buckeyes win out; nobody's going to mistake Ohio State for UCF, and even a 5-0 or 6-0 record should be enough to silence the doubters if the team looks good doing it.

*Special mention to November 1967, which featured games against 3-7 Michigan State, 0-9-1 Wisconsin, 1-8-1 Iowa, and 4-6 Michigan.

The Game Back Where It Belongs (kind of)

When the Big Ten messed around with the schedule the first time, creating the 10 game conference-only monster (hi, SEC), they made the peculiar decision to sprinkle the rivalry games throughout the season, rather than the last week (except, oddly, IU-PU). Most notably, The Game was moved to October 24, the seventh game of the season. This would have left a bad taste in everyone's mouth, as nobody wants to play The Game and then go back to business as usual the next week (one of the reasons I'm not in love with the Big Ten Championship Game). But at least it left some opportunities for rescheduling if something went wrong, as Schedule 2.0 included two open dates after the scheduled showdown. Now that the schedule has no room for error at all, The Game has been restored to its rightful place right at the end of the season, though on December 12 rather than Thanksgiving weekend (of course, I liked it better when it was before Thanksgiving weekend for a slew of reasons, but I'll try to keep my old man sentiments to a minimum). 

One word of caution: before any of this madness hit the world, someone I know scheduled their wedding for the first open Saturday after the Buckeye football season ended. That's right, December 12. Single folks, remember: nothing beats a late spring / early summer wedding.

Back in Scarlet

After the Big Ten's announcement that real fall football is returning, I'm the most optimistic (read as: at all optimistic for the first time) for the prospect of 2020 Ohio State football since the day the Big Ten Tournament was abruptly aborted. I need to share my thoughts on this now because if the season is cancelled again I'll be too depressed to write a word or watch a single down of football for another year.

Tempering Expectations

I'm not talking about expectations for how many games are going to be played vs. cancelled. If there's an outbreak among the players and a few Saturdays fall by the wayside I'll raise my fist against the sky in lamentation of another joy that 2020 has taken from us. No, I'm talking about the reason that so many of us in Buckeye Nation were desperate for this season to happen (other than every Buckeye season is our year-defining series of events): the Buckeyes are deep in the hunt for their 9th national championship.

Remember the Fiesta Bowl? It seems like a million years ago at this point but last December what was quite possibly the greatest team in Ohio State history blew their chance at immortality against their hated nemesis Clemson. Yes, I've only been watching Buckeye football closely since about 2000 or so but last year's team was far and away the best unit I've ever seen and I don't think any of the historical units (1968? 1973? 1996? 1998?) is in the conversation either. After the game finished I went home and wrote my introduction to the 2020 Ohio State season opener game just raving about how ticked off this team is going to be and the pounding they were going to put on Bowling Green. That writeup aged like Walter Donovan but the core sentiment remains: this team is going to be hungry for another chance, and they're returning enough pieces (OL, WR, DL, TE, LB, P, K, and oh yeah, QB) to make it happen.

All last fall we had to hear the national pundits talk about what could've been for Ohio State had they not let Joe Burrow get away. Was it the right call to let him go in 2018 and focus on Haskins? Almost certainly yes: he had a rocky go in his first season at LSU while Dwayne was single-handedly dragging Ohio State to a Big Ten title and a Rose Bowl championship. But a favorite "what-if" among the Buckeye faithful was: would you rather have had 2 years of Joe Burrow or a year of Dwayne and a year of Fields? After all, Ohio State almost definitely wins the natty with last year's version of Burrow on the team (if for no other reason than that LSU no longer has him). Were two great, nearly phenomenal seasons sufficient compensation? My answer always was: let's wait and see what Fields unleashes in his goodbye tour. If he leads us to the promised land, it was all worth it.

And then we had our hearts ripped out by the cowards at Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Northwestern, Indiana, Purdue, Penn State, Rutgers, Maryland, Michigan State, and Michigan. We were never going to see Justin Fields in an Ohio State uniform again. Now that he's back, joined by the bulk of his old receiver corps and O-line and a shiny new transfer RB, the sky is the limit once again for the Buckeye offense and, so long as the secondary doesn't completely fall to pieces (we see you, Shaun), the team as a whole.

It sucks that we didn't get to see this team hunt the Ducks last week, but a championship would heal all ills from this season.

Of course, all of this is assuming that they're not going to get kneecapped by the Playoff Committee...

The Secret Life of the Committee

The Committee has wisely kept its mouth shut during the turmoil of season postponements and cancellations, other than to release their schedule for ranking releases, which are a bit later than usual. The first rankings, usually out around the start of November, are due out on November 17, well past the B1G's revised start date of October 24. This means the Committee won't have much film of the Buckeyes to look at before they put the number next to the name, but the final rankings aren't due out until the Big Ten season finishes on Championship Saturdelay anyway, so the Bucks will have a full 9-game season to make their impression. The only problem is that the Buckeyes are set up to make a less complete impression than their competitors from the SEC (10 games each), Big 12 (10 games each) or ACC (11 games each). This could work for or against the Bucks: short season means fewer chances for losses, but your win total's not going to be as shiny, and no bye week means you're not getting a break from getting each opponent's best shot week after week. Not to mention that an outbreak, whether at home or affecting some drag-along team like Rutgers or Illinois that's not laser focused on the season, could limit Ohio State's win opportunities even further. 

But despite what the tinfoil hat crowd on Twitter and the Eleven Warriors comment section would have you believe, there's no conspiracy to keep Ohio State out of the Playoff. There is no way that a 9-0 (or even 8-0 with a game cancellation) Buckeye team is going to be ranked anywhere below #3 unless they're showcasing some serious 2002 style points, and even then a fall to #5 is out of the question. Even a one-loss Ohio State team isn't doomed if they can win the conference and pull off good wins against Penn State, Michigan, and/or Wisconsin. Where is the Committee going to find four better teams, particularly now that Notre Dame is playing in a conference and squarely under Clemson's thumb (or vice versa)? One from the SEC, one from the Big 12, one from the ACC, and...what? A second team from the SEC? No chance if the Buckeyes haven't lost. Dixie will scream and holler that they're playing 10 in-conference games in far and away the toughest conference in America (ironically, as a result of imitating the schedule the Big Ten originally pioneered) but there is no chance in hell that an undefeated Ohio State is left out of the playoff with eight or nine wins, a conference championship, and zero losses, no matter how closely the 9-1 SEC runner-up played Bama. A Group of Five team? Not likely with the MAC (lol) and Mountain West not playing (although at the time of writing this, the MWC was trying to reverse course as well), and the nonconference schedules severely curtailed, preempting any signature wins by a team from a lesser conference. Am I forgetting anyone? Oh, yeah...

A Lot to Un-Pac

Anyone notice that throughout the "will they / won't they" soap opera embroiling the Big Ten, nobody cared about whether or not the Pac-12 would come back? OK, not nobody, USC has been lobbying to get the season started up again, but there hasn't exactly been an outcry in Seattle or Eugene or Berkeley (lol) about a lack of football. At least nothing compared to Lincoln or Columbus. Nevertheless, perhaps in response to the Big Ten's earthshaking announcement, governors Gavin Newsom (California) and Kate Brown (Oregon) have loosened their restrictions on college football, clearing the way for a return of Pac-12 football. However, Larry Scott has indicated that he wants at least a 6 week timeframe for a reboot of the football season, and the rumor mill is floating a Halloween start date at the earliest, so their timeline seems to be somewhat slower than the B1G's. Given that the Big Ten schedule grants a maximum of 9 games with no byes, it's hard to see how the Pac-12 will have anything approaching a full season for Committee consideration. Not that they had a serious title contender this year anyway, except maybe (maybe) Oregon or USC. At least they'll have a champion to send to a New Year's Six game, I suppose.

Random Thoughts

• I know it doesn't matter at all, but what is the AP Poll going to do this week? True, the Big Ten won't have played any games until late October, but the AP Poll ranked B1G teams preseason despite the teams having no prospects for playing in 2020. The SEC continues to feature top 25 teams despite not taking the field for another couple of weeks. Either way, this poll is going to be weird to watch: either Ohio State is going to hover around #1-4 for a month and a half despite not playing a single snap, or a bunch of 1-0 B1G teams are going to suddenly pop into the rankings just in time for the start of November.
• With the 8-game conferenceschedule, Ohio will get presumably get 2 cross division opponents before championship & friends weekend. Please please please let them be Iowa and Purdue.
• What the hell is going on in Ann Arbor? Ohio State reacted to the restoration of a meaningful 2020 season by clawing back two 100%-lock early NFL draft picks who had already opted out.  Michigan reacted by shedding their presumed starting QB, Dylan McCaffrey, and their top receiving threat, Nico Collins. Scared of getting 100 hung on them? Jimmy knows tanking doesn't work in college, right?
• And to pile on TTUN even further, a joke shamelessly stolen from Eleven Warriors commenter Barfolomew: with the 8 games + 1 "everybody plays on championship weekend" schedule, Michigan will finally play in a postseason B1G game. Congratulations.