Week 3: Drop It, Rocket!

Standings:

1.) Draper 7-2 (0-2 upset)
1.) Hoying 7-2 (0-2 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 6-3 (1-1 upset)
3.) Seeberg 5-4 (0-2 upset)

The best thing about being 2-0 is the chance to feel much, much better than you did at this point last year for reasons we don't need to go into here. Quite a few teams across the country similarly have a chance to go 3-0, and there's even a few one loss teams hanging around the rankings (because why rank a team like Marshall or Appalachian State when Baylor, Pitt, and Utah are available?). Not much will shake up the conference standings this week, but quite a few teams still have a chance to ruin their Playoff hopes by playing that out of conference opponent that was just too tough for them to handle.

Brigham Young Cougars @ Oregon Ducks

Draper: Welcome home, Ducks.  It's not the Dawgs (you can breathe again) but BYU is coming off a very nice win over a top 10 Baylor.  This is a game where we find out if Oregon is a quality win for UGA or an overrated pile of poo (looking at you, Notre Dame).  I tend to think these two teams are pretty evenly matched talentwise, but Autzen is a heck of an environment to test the Cougars.  The close win at Baylor was a a major feather in BYU's cap and message that they truly belong in the power 5, but I don't know if they're ready for a big road game in a tough environment, against a quality team.  Autzen tilts the battle to the Ducks (and more chest pounding by the SEC).  BYU: 27--Ore: 34
Hoying: One of these teams got the Coach 30 treatment for its only FBS game this year, and the other one just knocked off one of last year's P5 conference champions (and Sugar Bowl champion). OK, I get it. Georgia isn't Baylor (probably). But... BYU beat Baylor without their top two wideouts. I know, Ohio State is doing that every week, but the Cougars were still able to get the air attack going, and now face an Oregon defense that made Stetson Bennett look like Josh Allen (the NFL version, not the Wyoming version). Oregon is somehow favored in this matchup, but BYU should win it straight up. BYU: 31--Ore: 27

Schweinfurth: BYU is getting a ton of hype right now after a huge win last week. Oregon just hasn't lived up to the billing thus far (although most teams would get wrecked by Georgia right now). One of these teams will prove to be way overrated. I think it's Oregon. BYU:35--21
Seeberg:  BYU managed a solid win against defending Big XII champ Baylor last week in spite of being down two of their best WRs.  That type of quality win is tough to ignore.  Oregon, meanwhile, got lambasted against UGA before taking their frustrations out on an FCS squad last week so it's hard to figure out what to make of them.  This game should tell us a lot about both teams.  I, for one, think the home-field advantage in this one tips the proverbial scales to the Ducks and their highlighter-esque uniforms.  Ducks late.  BYU: 24--Ore: 31

 

Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions @ Auburn Tigers

Draper: This game holds a lot of the same interest as the previous game...super-duper-meh. These teams have their years of punching for the top tier, but they're not there at this point.  Auburn has really faded into obscurity aside from the random victory (or major choke job) against the Tide.  Penn State seems to just live in the perpetual 'this is the year we finally turn the corner' before MASSIVELY returning to meh-land.  This feels like another 'we're back' game before another crash and burn for the Lions.  Jordan-Hare gives the Tigers a chance, but Auburn simply isn't very good this year.  PSU: 30--Aub: 17
Hoying: These teams may not be in the top 10, but this just might be the highest-stakes game of the week, because it feels like one of these teams is getting ready to fall off a cliff. Penn State, while perhaps not a true national title contender, was nevertheless more often than not in the discussion from about 2005 on, while during the same period Auburn won a title, played for another, and got screwed out of a chance for a third try. But now, Auburn seems to be on an extended losing streak. QB BoNix left for greener and yellower pastures in the Pac-12 for some reason (maybe to get away from Georgia...wait...) and his replacement, TJ Finley, is even worse. Penn State has their own usual problems: so-so QB play, no blocking, and awful play-calling and game management. I got burned believing in Penn State over and over and over last year (except, ironically, against Auburn) and...I'm ready to be hurt again. Auburn is in serious trouble. PSU: 24--Aub: 17
Schweinfurth: Has anyone actually watched an Auburn game this year? They seem stuck in no man's land this year. As much as I deride Franklin's coaching decisions, the Lions should win this game. It should be entertaining to see how each team tries to out fail each other.  PSU: 20--Aub: 13
Seeberg:  Kudos to these two squads for setting up a home and home.  PSU snuck out a win last year at home and they're essentially the same team this year, running it back with Sean Clifford.  Auburn is...Bo Nix-less and, amazingly, even worse.  The ceiling with Clifford is pretty low for the Nittany Lions, but the floor is actually pretty high.  Beating an SEC team on the road should earn him a few more starts before the fan base clamors for the freshman backup.  PSU: 27--Aub: 16

Texas Tech Red Raiders @ North Carolina State Wolfpack

Draper: All I really know about these teams is that NC State entered the year as the darkhorse in the ACC and narrowly avoided my upset special in week 1.  As for Texas Tech, well, they're undefeated....yay.  This feels like a game the Wolfpack have to win to maintain any momentum going into the ACC slate if they have further aspirations.  I'll lean on the home crowd in Raleigh to be the difference, but I wouldn't be shocked if Texas Tech shows that NC State was a preseason darling flop.  TT: 17--NCSt: 24
Hoying: I know this isn't a ranked matchup. After all, the AP voters have to have some standards. All Texas Tech did was beat ranked Houston last week; they didn't go the extra mile like other Texas teams and lose to Alabama or Appalachian State. Every year, there are a few teams without recent success that are hyped up beyond all reason, and none this year stands out more starkly than the NC State Wolfpack. NC State has not won 10 games in a season since Philip Rivers was slinging the rock back in 2002. NC State did not win the Atlantic division of the ACC in 2021, the one season during the Playoff era in which Clemson and Florida State both faceplanted (Wake Forest won it instead). And this very season, NC State remains in the ranks of the ranked because East Carolina couldn't make an extra point or a field goal in the closing minutes of the season opener (*Bengals flashbacks intensify*). Maybe beating Houston at home in double overtime isn't terribly impressive, but I'll still stick with the hot hand. TTU: 27--NCSt: 24
Schweinfurth: I'll be honest, I have no idea about either of these teams. I guess I'll pick the Wolfpack, just because? TTU: 31--NCSt: 35
Seeberg:  Well let's see, what have we here?  The Red Raiders got a resume boosting win against ranked opponent *checks notes* Houston?  Not sure that qualifies.  Meanwhile, the Wolfpack were a preseason darling before sneaking out a win against  *checks notes again* East Carolina?  Yikes.  I have serious doubts that either team is "for real" or "back" or whatever terminology we're using these days, but Carter Finley should give the home team a boost before inevitably losing to Duke or another ACC also-ran program.  Wolfpack pull away late.  TT: 24--NCSU: 34

Michigan State Spartans @ Washington Huskies

Draper: A fun weird Power 5 inter-conference matchup. Michigan State is still riding the wave from Mel Tucker's inaugural season, but Ken Walker isn't walking through that door (although he is in Seattle...).  IU legend, Michael Penix leads the Huskies into battle against a familiar foe.  Once again, I don't have much insight into this battle, but I'm intrigued as to what all this means.  I really don't think MSU is that talented with Payton Thorne at the helm, but UW is still rebuilding.  The Seattle venue makes this juicy, but I think I'll lean on the big slobberknockers to get it done on the coast.  I think these teams are more similar than the rankings suggest, but Sparty wins ugly.  MSU: 24--UW: 20
Hoying: Another puzzler: Michigan State is ranked #11, Washington is not ranked, and Washington is favored? Disrespekt is flying in all directions in this matchup. After all the craziness we've seen in the first two weeks of this season, how many teams have looked consistently dominant both weeks? Georgia, Wake, Ole Miss, and, I would argue, these two teams. Sure, they've combined to play 3 MAC teams and Portland State, but we've seen team after team struggle with lesser competition in this young season. MSU QB Payton Thorne is clearly missing WR Jalen Nailor this season (though Jayden Reed is still there) as the Spartans continue to rely on their running game even after the departure of superstar RB Kenneth Walker. Meanwhile out west, QB Michael Penix is doing his best to hold both ACLs intact and recapture some of that 2020 magic. Thankfully he only has to play one Big Ten team this year but unfortunately it's the one at hand. At least his O-line should be better than the atrocious unit that was getting him killed on an annual basis at Indiana. You surely remember what happened the last time the Spartans played a team that could air it out. Heck, Penix himself did it to MSU back in that crazy 2020 season to the tune of a 24-0 whomping. I don't think MSU has magically figured him out, so as long as he stays upright, he should be able to overcome what was all too often a liability of a Husky defense in 2021. MSU: 30--UW: 33
Schweinfurth: This is an interesting one to me and it feels as if this is that annual "Sparty No" game. I do think Michigan State is better than Washington, but Seattle has always proved tricky for B1G teams. Sparty should win, but this is probably closer than it should be. MSU: 28--UW: 21
Seeberg:  Interesting matchup here of oft-overlooked power five programs who've done remarkably well in the playoff era (both have made the playoff actually).  Sparty hit transfer portal gold with Kenneth Walker III last season but they've seemed a bit disjointed thus far trying to duplicate that transfer magic.  UW's QB is a name we know well, perennially injured Michael Penix of former Hoosier glory.  I would expect the post-Dantonio Spartans to whip up a solid defensive scheme against a QB they know well, and escape the west coast with a win that may look pretty good late in the season.  MSU: 27--UW: 20

Miami Hurricanes @ Texas A&M Aggies

Draper: Is THE U back? Is A&M garbage? I think the answer is 'not yet' and 'probably not'.  Cristobal is getting the ball rolling in Miami, but it will take time to return to the level they want.  A&M are fresh off an inexplicable loss to App St, but the dirty secret is that the Mountaineers might be pretty good.  I'll credit the Aggies with holding App St to 17 points after the week 1 shootout in Boone, but it's still App St.  The offense is the issue in College Station so Jimbo has moved to all time name candidate and LSU transfer Max Johnson at QB.  I don't think this is enough to ignite the Aggies and return to greatness, but with throws like these, who can ask for more? Seriously, the A&M recruits/athletes are better than the Canes (for now).  Will that translate to success? Who knows? Regardless, I'll roll with the Aggies to 'right the ship' at Kyle Field.  It's too soon for the Canes, but with hype videos like this, the sky's the limit.  UM: 13--TAMU: 20
Hoying: Stop me if you've heard this one. "Oh, now Miami has a great QB. Look out, ACC!" We've been hearing this chorus ever since Brock Berlin took over for Ken Dorsey, and it's never quite panned out. The Hurricanes have won a total of one Coastal division title, which they parlayed into getting pasted by Clemson by 35 in the ACC Championship. I'm not saying that exact result can't happen again this season, but I'm going to be one of the last few on the Miami comeback train. That being said, I don't have a lot of reasons to be optimistic about Texas A&M either. If the offense isn't moving the ball against Sun Belt teams, what hope do the Aggies have against a real defense? Does Miami have a real defense? Hard to say, as not many of these guys were starting last year (at least not for Miami; hooray for the transfer portal). A&M is going to get a nasty wake-up call when SEC play begins, although they're already living a nightmare now, but I don't trust Miami's defense to frustrate the Aggies to the extent App State did (am I going insane?). UM: 20--TAMU: 24
Schweinfurth: Last week was fun. TAMU losing to App State was one of the main reasons for that. The blueprint has been laid for how to beat the Aggies. A good run game and bleed the clock paid dividends last week. Here comes Miami. Remember what Mario Cristobal's Ducks pulled off last year against a team that couldn't man up against the run (looking at you Bucks)? Between the App State hangover and another team that will probably pound the ball, I'll take the Canes. UM: 21--TAMU: 17
Seeberg: Breaking news!  The Aggies have switched QBs for this game.  Let's get real though they had less than 100 yards passing AND running against Appalachian State so a quarterback switch is not going to be the panacea for which they're desperately searching.  Reminder, the Tar Heels scored SIXTY-THREE POINTS against our Columbus-beloved App St the week before.  They literally gave up 40 fourth-quarter points and still won.  I get the distinct impression that Jimbo's offensive woes (hey that rhymes!) are going to take more than a week to iron out.  Hurricanes mercifully remove the Aggies from the rankings.  UM: 20-TAMU: 13 

Toledo Rockets @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: Here's another placeholder game for the Bucks to fix the mistakes before entering the conference schedule.  The Rockets shoot in at 2-0 and maybe have a little juice hoping to be the first Ohio team to knock off the Buckeyes since Oberlin.  I just can't see it happening.  The Buckeyes look to get JSN and Fleming back this weekend so the rich get richer.  I know many people want JSN held out until Wisconsin, but I think facing the live action is needed to get back into game shape.  The defense was played the bend don't break card, but there appeared to be a few gaps/missed assignments last week.  I'm chalking it up to the opponent and I want to see growth every week (Burke...please start playing like last year and not a chump).  The offense was a little slow out of the gates, but I think it was motivation.  Day and Co. should give the team a little kick in the butt to establish dominance early and allow for some rest in the latter quarters.  Stroud will be fine and should pump in monster numbers as well.  I expect the backups get some play in the 4th as we're on to Wisconsin.  Enjoy us old guys going down the ramp one more time (except for Tyler....he sucks).  UT: 17--OSU: 55  
Hoying: I like these boring writeups when Ohio State is playing well, the opponent is easily manageable, and a blowout is in the cards. There are still a few areas to clean up (secondary, penalties, having healthy receivers) but overall the Buckeyes are firing well on both sides of the ball. Still, I'd like to see one game up to Michigan September Heisman levels of devastation before the B1G slog begins next week, and Toledo is the perfect patsy. They don't throw the ball well, so if the Buckeyes can get up a couple scores early, we could be looking at a Michigan State-level meltdown. And with Jaxon and (maybe) Julian back on the field, and Pop and Chop cooking in the backfield, a couple early scores shouldn't be too tall of an order. UT: 13--OSU: 52
Schweinfurth: There isn't much to say here. This game should be over by the end of the first half. I would like to see fewer penalties this week, especially fewer procedural ones. On offense, more TDs than punts this week would be nice (Bucks have punted 10 times already this year). On defense, get Denzel Burke right. Past that? More of the same please. Keep everyone healthy and act appropriately. UT: 10--52
Seeberg:  Ah yes, our yearly "keep some money in the state" game against a MAC foe.  Toledo comes rolling in at 2-0 with a schedule thus far that might even be worse than TTUN's.  My primary concern is the fact that reports suggest JSN might play.  I said it last week and I'll say it again.  Keep.  Him.  Off.  The.  Field.  He is superfluous in this one.  Let him get healthy before we hit conference play.  Julian Fleming, however, hasn't seen much of the field in his time thus far, so getting some game reps for him might be worth it if he's ready.  The offense was pretty hit or miss last week and that rhythm needs to be found relatively soon.  Also, where are the turnovers on defense?  I was told that would be a big part of things and not a single TO has been forced through two weeks, including one week against markedly inferior competition.  Turn the Rockets over, give Stroud a short field, RUN THE DAMN BALL, and get the starters out after the first drive of the 3rd quarter.  Please.  Thank you.  UT: 13--OSU: 45

Upset Special
Draper: Nebraska over Oklahoma (SICKOS)
Hoying: South Carolina over Georgia
Schweinfurth: Louisiana Tech over Clemson
Seeberg:  UTSA over Texas

Week 2: The Amazing Traveling SEC

Standings:

1.) Hoying 4-0 (0-1 upset)
2.) Draper 3-1 (0-1 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 3-1 (0-1 upset)
2.) Seeberg 3-1 (0-1 upset)

The heckles and jeers have finally penetrated the Mason-Dixon line: after years of playing stupid neutral site games (including last week's Superdome farce between LSU and FSU, possibly the stupidest of them all), we have two big name SEC programs venturing outside their comfort zones to visit the unfriendly confines of nonconference opponents. Another SEC opponent travels for an early nonconference game, and a somewhat less formidable southern team makes the long trip up to Ohio Stadium.

Tennessee Volunteers @ Pittsburgh Panthers

Draper: It's odd when one of the premier games of the weekend is a total mystery.  The Backyard Brawl saw the Pitt Panthers win in a weird back and forth, no one should win kind of game (but that's what the Brawl is).  Tennessee has been an analytic darling this year, but the SEC schedule will be rough.  Pitt....well, they're Pitt.  Even though it's in Pittsburgh, I think the Panthers will ride the high a little too much while the Vols play the SEC card and get it done on the road.  UT: 38--Pitt: 24 
Hoying: Believe it or not, kids, there was a time in somewhat recent when Tennessee...well, didn't exactly run the SEC, but sat comfortably in the heir apparent position behind Spurrier's Gators. But despite being a perennial choice for a dark horse SEC challenger and signing multiple top ten classes this decade, the Vols haven't really made any noise since their early 2000s heyday. Even last year, Tennessee faceplanted before SEC season even started, kicking off their first of six losses by losing to Pitt. This year, the Panthers don't have Kenny Pickett anymore, but they aren't lacking for experience at QB after snagging USC transfer Kedon Slovis. On the other hand, it's Tennessee that's supposed to have the killer offense this year with Joe Milton Hendon Hooker returning to head up a formidable passing attack. I don't really trust either of those teams, but I probably trust Pitt less; they needed a miracle pick six to put West Virginia away last week and the "Neers have been mediocre almost as long as Tennessee has. SEC continues their early season dominance (just don't cast your eyes towards Louisiana). UT: 31--Pitt: 24
Schweinfurth: Watching the Backyard Brawl last week left me with a lot of questions about Pitt. Sure they can put up points, but can they really stop anyone? The Vols are a middle of the road SEC team and I still have questions if they are for real (Ball State isn't exactly lighting it up). Both teams should put up plenty of points, but I really think UT can get one more stop than Pitt. UT: 42--Pitt: 38
Seeberg:  Ranked against ranked eh?  The Vols are essentially the SEC version of Texas:  A formerly powerful program that commands a ton of attention in a football-crazed state that has made wildly inaccurate claims about being relevant and/or back for quite some time whose name starts with "Te".  To their credit, however, Hendon Hooker appeared to be the real deal in their warmup dusting of Ball State, with 2 TDs through the air and 2 more on the ground.  A dual-threat QB may be hard for Pitt to plan for, but they are already battle-tested, winning the backyard brawl in entertaining and dramatic fashion.  Pitt is closer to being "back" than my master's degree alma mater I'm afraid.  UT: 27-- Pitt: 31

 

Kentucky Wildcats @ Florida Gators

Draper: In the last 35 years, the Wildcats have bested the Gators two times.  One of those was last season when Mark Stoops brought Kentucky out of the 'just a basketball school' realm (Saint Peters helped as well).  While it seems every team in the SEC East has aspirations of being number 2 to Georgia, this is new ground for Kentucky.  The perennial doormat saunters into the Swamp with a little swag.  This, is likely a mistake.  The Utes found last week that the Swamp is no joke, and Anthony Richardson cast his hat into the ring for the Heisman talk.  The Gators aren't nearly to the standard of UGA, but they seem to be making a little push to relevance.  I think UK will have to wait to take down the Gators in the Swamp.  UK: 17--UF: 30

Hoying: It's the old Charlie-Brown-and-Lucy game from the SEC, only Charlie has finally managed to connect on a couple of kicks in the last few years. And though the SEC East crown seems like a foregone conclusion for Georgia (especially after last week), the trendy pick to make a little noise in the East coming into this season was not the Gators, but the Wildcats. Amazing the momentum a stupid bowl win over Iowa can provide a program. Last week, Florida played what should be a very good Utah team to a standstill, with a short end zone interception snatching victory from the jaws of defeat. Whatever hype is surrounding UK, they're not quite on Utah's level, and Florida should be able to rack up another early quality win at home before their breather against USF next week. UK: 20--UF: 30
Schweinfurth: The Gators appear to be a much improved team this year, not top tier, but better. Kentucky has been hanging around the last few years, but are really a level below Florida. Add in the momentum from last week, Gators win. UK: 20--UF: 35
Seeberg:  Is Florida back?  I don't know, but a week one win over a top 10 opponent is certainly an excellent way to start the season regardless.  A second straight ranked squad comes to town, and this time it's a conference foe.  Mark Stoops has been phenomenal at UK, getting their football team to perennial respectability.  Anthony Richardson was an offensive revelation for a Gator squad that has relied mostly on stout defense for the last several years, and he should be enough to provide another win in the Swamp.  UK: 20--UF: 28

Baylor Bears @ Brigham Young Cougars

Draper: Another 'huh?' game. Both teams stomped their opponents last week, but no one really cares about the warmup games.  Baylor enters in the top 10, but that's still a vestige of last year's Big 12 Championship.  Honestly, the edge coming in is the stoic Dave Aranda.  I love the product/persona of balance he brings to the game (although I love the fiery coaches too).  I'm not sold on Baylor returning to form this year, but this will be an interesting test against the soon conference foe.  I'm getting some vibes that BYU is going to make this interesting.  I think they mess around and win at home as the Bears take a step back from last year's campaign.  BU: 30--BYU: 35

Hoying: Wow, the Big 12 is moving really quickly in the wake of the B1G and SEC's realignment...wait, this is just a scheduling coincidence? Get used to seeing this game on a regular basis from 2023 forward as the Baptists and Mormons battle for religious supremacy in America's most forgettable (but somehow still stronger than the Pac-12) "Power 5" conference. You may remember Baylor winning the Big 12 last year by literal inches and derailing the Lane Train in the Sugar Bowl. Dave Aranda has engineered a nice turnaround from the aftermath of the disastrous finish to the Art Briles era, and he's probably too good to stick around Baylor for too much longer, but they'll at least get to enjoy him for this huge road game against a ranked opponent. The problem for BYU is that their two top receivers are both lost to injury, and they don't quite have the depth of certain scarlet and gray teams that can plug and play and win Rose Bowls and other Top-5 battles. Baylor won comfortably last year, and I expect a repeat. BU: 27--BYU: 20
Schweinfurth: I just can't buy on BYU. They have been a mostly irrelevant team while Baylor has been riding the "Texas is down" wave in recruiting. Baylor should have the better players, but at BYU should keep it close. BU: 28--BYU: 24
Seeberg:  For all you night owls we've got a ranked matchup in the late window!  Both squads looked good in their openers against markedly inferior opponents.  Baylor was the class of the Big XII last year and shows few signs of slowing down.  The Mormon home crowd may have been enough to shift this the other way, but news has come out that the Cougars are without their 2 best wideouts.  We saw what happened to the vaunted Ohio State offense with two WRs gone, and it's likely a little too much for the blue and white to overcome.  Bears pull away late. BU: 31--BYU: 20

Alabama Crimson Tide @ Texas Longhorns

Draper: Is Texas back? The short answer: No.  The long answer: Nooooooooooooooo.  Standout Buckeye transfer Quinn Ewers had a nice debut after his 2 snaps last year, but he's still a work in progress.  Bama was the standard last week as always.  Heisman winner Bryce Young was fantastic and the defense pitched a shutout.  Could Darrell K. Royal be the deciding factor.....Nooooooooooooo.  I expect a solid workmanlike dismantling by the Tide while Texas continues the rebuild.  Note: if Bama wins, Nick Saban will remain undefeated in true non-conference road games in his 15 years at Alabama.  A stunning 3-0! Bama: 42--UT: 13

Hoying: Part of me gets frustrated that our beloved Buckeyes have only taken home one national title in the last 20 years despite repeatedly pulling in #2 rated classes, even in back-to-back cycles. But nothing compares to the talent they waste down in Austin, where multiple top ten classes are rendered into a slurry of mediocrity. No Big 12 titles since Colt McCoy beat Nebraska by one point in one second. No major bowl wins except the "we're baaaack" premature coronation in the 2019 Sugar Bowl. Heck, they only have 4 winning seasons in the last 8. At least they'll always have that overtime win against 4-8 Notre Dame in 2016. Yes, Quinn Ewers is supposed to be the greatest QB recruit ever (sigh). Yes, the Longhorns still have arguably the nation's premier running back in Bijan Robinson . But, do we have any reason to believe the defense is supposed to be better than last year's wet paper sacks? Are they going to be ready for Heisman winner Bryce Young and the rest of the Crimson Inevitability? The Tide may get shocked by a couple of early scores but I wouldn't count on the Longhorn D to hold out for any considerable period of time. Bama: 38--UT: 20

Schweinfurth: Someone reminded Saban that the Horns Down hand gesture is a 15 yard penalty. Some poor DB or Wide Out flashing that sign would most likely be Texas' best offensive play all day. Texas is going to find out how far they have left to go in order to be back. This smells like a multiple INT game for Ewers. In a preview of years to come, Bama. Big. Bama: 45--UT: 9

Seeberg:  Two marquee high-profile programs clash- and 'Bama is even on the road and not at a neutral site for once!  Unfortunately the next iteration of Manning hasn't yet arrived in Austin, though it might not matter either way.  The 'Bama juggernaut keeps rolling along.  Bama, UGA, and tOSU have just recruited at another level the last 4-5 years and it shows when you stack recruiting classes like that.  The Longhorns may get there, but not yet.  I hope Ohio State defector Quinn Ewers enjoys his afternoon and year before he plays second fiddle again.  Bama: 38--UT: 17

Arkansas State Red Wolves @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: Buckeye Nation is all worried about an 11 point win over a top 5 team.  Ryan Day played the press conference perfectly highlighting the positives, of which there were many.  The defense was fantastic last week, and I expect them to continue to improve.  While the offense wasn't a machine last week, I have little to no concern moving forward.  CJ had a really nice day (graded as one of the top performers on the week), the receivers rebounded after the loss of JSN (more mental recovery for Stroud and friends in my opinion), and Miyan Williams was fantastic.  The Red Wolves are not Notre Dame.  The athletic disparity should become relatively apparent early on in the game.  While I was a bit pessimistic on the Oline's performance last week, more level heads showed me that they held up extremely well against an NFL prospect riddled Dline.  They should be able to bully Arkansas State, but I expect the game plan will have plenty of passing work thrown in to get the receivers comfortable.  I don't expect JSN to play so 2 TDs each for Harrison and Egbuka coming up.  Butch Jones knew what he was getting into taking this game.  ArkSt: 10--OSU: 62

Hoying: I had a lot of questions going into the Notre Dame game. Now...I have more. But the most significant one is a slight tweak from my preseason "Will this defense be any good?" to "Can this defense do that week in and week out?" It's not impossible; back in 2019 Ohio State swapped out the overly complex Greg Schiano defense for the simpler and much more effective Jeff Hafley defense (oh the irony of that Rutgers-Boston College game last weekend) and the Buckeyes went from the #71 defense in the nation to #1 overnight. Interestingly, the switch this year seems to be in the opposite direction: after totally scrapping Kerry Coombs's "what the hell is everyone doing" defense after the Oregon game for Matt Barnes's "keep it simple and adjust to nothing" defense for the rest of year, which improved matters up to a hard ceiling (aaagggh, Hassan Haskins nightmares), the Buckeyes just implemented the schemes of mad scientist Jim Knowles to near perfection against the Fighting Irish. I doubt we're going to learn much more until the Badgers come to town at month's end, but it would be nice to get a feel for how the defense is going to operate going forward. It would also be nice to put up more than three scores on offense, and a terrible terrible Sun Belt defense is just what the doctor ordered. Who cares if we're starting our second string receivers? If our utility players are good enough at WR to find holes in the Marcus Freeman-Al Golden Irish defense, our receiver corps should be more than up to the task of eviscerating the worst the Sun Belt and the MAC has to offer. To say nothing of Chop and Pop (h/t Tony Gerdeman) in the backfield bullying defenders and threatening to break free on every run. Whatever Justin Frye did to get the run game back on track last week, I'd love to see more of it, especially against the physical Big Ten slate Ohio State has drawn this season. As for this game, I don't see a way it stays close. Notre Dame was able to pressure Stroud and keep everything in front of their safeties (except for double safety blitzes on 3rd and 11, rofl), but Arkansas State following that game plan is a recipe for Ohio State's possession receivers to have a field day and the running backs to work their best J. K. All Day magic. I would say this will be terribly boring but I never get tired of watching the boys take their jerseys to their matching field turf color (how about that sharp-looking new field, too?). ArkSt: 10--OSU: 59

Schweinfurth: Need some motivation this week? How about the Bucks dropping to #3 after beating a top 5 team by two scores. That should help this team keep focus a bit. This game is all about learning and experience this week. The Bucks can win without JSN and Julian Flemming and I would be surprised if they do more than warm up. Let Stroud get in a rhythm with the young wide outs and pound Henderson and Williams. On defense, more of that please. It appeared as if the Bullets were back. All reaction, no overthinking. Again, get the offence in synch, get the young guys experience, and move on to next week with minimal injuries. ArkSt. 13--OSU: 56

Seeberg:  Last week was a convincing win, though not in the way most predicted.  Less than 75 yards for ND the entire second half?  Sign me up.  Offense makes headlines, but defense travels and this was an excellent first step both for this season, and future seasons as just about every big recruit still on the board saw a revitalized unit.  For this Saturday, the only thing I know for certain about this game- other than it will be a blowout- is that JSN better not play.  I'm relieved the injury is reportedly minor, but if we can beat Notre Dame without him, he's superfluous against the Red Wolves.  Julian Fleming is also still banged up as he was a game-time decision last week, but he could use the reps with CJ.  Regardless, I'd like to see the D continue to fly around and perhaps create a couple TOs this week, and the offense to find its 2021 rhythm.  They've got 2 weeks to do so before the Badgers come calling.  Ark: 10--OSU: 52

Upset Special
Draper: South Carolina over Arkansas
Hoying: Stanford over USC
Schweinfurth: Washington St. over Wisconsin
Seeberg:  Vandy over Wake

Week 1: Silver & Gold

Smiles up, Buckeye Nation. We have a brand new defense, a brand new offensive line coach, the return of the best QB in America (for both of the first two games, even!) and a shiny golden opponent to tune up against. It's time for a traitor to be rewarded as a traitor deserves, and don't be surprised if Marcus Freeman makes the wrong decision a few more times than twice on Saturday afternoon.

Oregon Ducks vs. Georgia Bulldogs

Draper: A big road opener for the Ducks for the second year.  Once again playing the big underdog role, the question is whether the Ducks can pull it off again.  Last year, was a perfect storm facing a new QB and a putrid defense (sorry, Bucks) and just enough to get it done in a tough environment.  If we turn back the clock, you'll find that CJ was pretty good (not great, but the defense couldn't do anything).  I don't think the Dawgs will have that problem.  Yeah, the offense won't be NEARLY as explosive, but that defense (although fairly green) will be just fine.  Last year was the one for the Ducks.  After losing Cristobal, I don't think we'll see a resurgence.  Yes, the Oregon coach came from UGA, but the athletes simply don't match.  The fact that the UGA QB is subpar is less important when you have the defense to carry you.  I just can't see the upset here.  UO: 10--UGA: 20
Hoying: Yeah, on paper this doesn't look particularly competitive, but the presumptive underdog in this matchup was responsible for one of the most baffling-in-hindsight upsets of the 2021 season (other than Bowling Green over Minnesota, maybe). I doubt that game is far from your memory. What you might not remember was that their national championship defending opponent came out in week 1 last year and failed to make any kind of dent in the weakest Clemson team in the Playoff era, needing a pick 6 to get past the otherwise dreadful 3-3 deadlock. It's not like the Georgia offense suddenly woke up at any point last year; they had by far the worst offense of any Playoff champion but an old-school SEC classic defense was enough to pull them just far enough ahead of the Tuscaloosa Death Star for the title. But they aren't playing Alabama now; they're playing a normal team. How did Georgia do against the last normal team they played? Well, I'm sure I don't need to remind you about the other team that smacked around the scarlet and gray last year, and what did they and their Heisman runner-up DE do when they arrived in the Playoff? They got lit up for 34 points and failed to do much of anything in return. As long as Georgia doesn't have a nasty case of "2015 Ohio State" I don't see any way this game stays close; Oregon hasn't found any answers in the offseason and their hard ceiling of "just barely Playoff caliber with favorable schedule" hasn't budged. Ore: 9--UGA: 24
Schweinfurth: This has the feel of the annual neutral field sacrifice to the SEC. The coaching turnover at Oregon is a little concerning and the Ducks are not going to catch Georgia off guard. Georgia isn't going to let the Ducks run the same play over and over for chunk yardage either. The Dawgs start their national championship defense off with a win. Ore: 10--UGA: 35
Seeberg:  First off, COLLEGE FOOTBALL IS BACK BABY!!  Secondly, much credit to these programs for their willingness to play marquee early season games.  Both teams won their respective big openers to springboard into early CFP contention.  Clearly worked out well for the Dawgs.  The Ducks just manhandled our beloved Buckeyes last year but UGA is a whole 'nother level of physical.  With even a reasonably competent offense to compliment their likely-reloaded D, Georgia should start their title defense with another marquee W.  Ore: 13--UGA: 24

Cincinnati Bearcats @ Arkansas Razorbacks

Draper: I'm intrigued with this matchup.  Last year was the year of the Bearcat (before getting whipped in the CFP), but Fickell has built a strong program across the board.  Losses of Ridder and Garner loom large even though it's more of a 'next man up' situation than ever before.  The Hogs have some crazy freaks on both sides, but the running game will take center stage. The question is how Arkansas handles success/expectations of success.  Cincy has lived with it and thrived, but that was against a (mostly) group of 5 schedule.  Arkansas is still a mid-tier Power 5, but they have some horses.  These teams would be really interesting in a neutral site game, but I'll lean on the Hogs in Fayetteville.  UC: 20--Ark: 24
Hoying: Congratulations, Cincinnati. You proved that beating one quality team and eleven limp fish is sufficient to secure a Playoff spot. And wouldn't you know it, fresh off of your Playoff chokehold at the hands of Alabama, opportunity repeats itself in 2022. The schedule is total poo but look at that shining kernel of corn leading things off: an SEC team! And not just an SEC team, but a trendy pick as a dark horse to make some noise in college football's death division, the SEC West. Should we expect the Bearcats to bring home the bacon and settle in for three months of cruise control? Not exactly. Cincy followed up their greatest season ever by sending a school record nine players to the draft, including steady hand QB Desmond Ridder and All-American DBs Sauce Gardner and Coby Bryant. Arkansas will be...OK...but that should be enough to handle a Bearcat squad with at least one star misaligned. Better luck next year in the Big 12 (or just win out and go to the Cotton Bowl). UC: 20--Ark: 30
Schweinfurth: What a difference a year makes here. I'm taking Cincinnati if this game was played last year. No Desmond Ridder and no Sauce Gardner and it feels like the Bearcats are in rebuild mode. Fickel won't let his time quit, so the score should be close, but the talent gap should win out in the end. UC: 21--Ark: 24
Seeberg:  Wait, this is a ranked matchup?  Welcome to college football in 2022.  UC went where no non-power-5-but-soon-to-be-power-5 squad has gone before, making the playoff as Alabama's semifinal appetizer.  The Bearcats recruited well, developed even better, and had a whopping NINE players drafted in April, more than every program except LSU and UGA (yes, even the Buckeyes amazingly enough).  That amalgamation of talent just isn't sustainable there just yet, and the 'Hogs are on the upswing with Sam Pittman coaching in year two.  It should be competitive, but Fickell and Co. aren't destined for another dream season just yet.  UC: 17--Ark: 27

 

Utah Utes @ Florida Gators

Draper: Another really interesting matchup to open the year as the SEC leaves the friendly home confines for a....wait....they're at home AGAIN? Checks out.  The Utes are the talk of the Pac12 this year (along with the hot Trojans).  While they're not sexy, they are a very good, well-coached team.  While almost stealing a Rose Bowl (against the OSU 2nd string), you can see the talent on the team (unless the RB's play CB again).  The Gators are...the Gators.  New coach Billy Napier is bringing some hope of rebirth to Gainsville, but there's a bit of a climb after last years campaign.  While UF can still recruit great talent, we haven't heard a ton of it in the last few years.  Utah might not have the 'studs' either, but they're more experienced with high quality.  The Swamp is the real question here.  It truly is one of, if not the, most intimidating environment in CFB when rocking.  Will Gator Nation come out and will it be enough? I think so and I think not, respectively.  If they can weather the early crowd, the Utes sneak out with a win.  UU: 24--UF: 20
Hoying: Boy, did any team fall off harder in the second half of 2021 than the Florida Gators? Going from playing Alabama to a standstill in the Swamp to losing five of their last seven, including getting run out of the building against post-Spurrier South Carolina of all teams, was enough to finally run Dan Mullen out of Gainesville. Enter Billy Napier, and he has his work cut out for him. 2021 starting QB Emory Jones decided to keep the heat but lose the humidity and bolt for Arizona State, leaving UF to break in a new starting QB as well. Of course, it wasn't the QB that gave up 459 yards to South Carolina or 454 yards to LSU, but slowing the flow of turnovers would be a big part of a new recipe for success. As for Utah, you saw what they did to Oregon (twice) last year and what they did to the Buckeyes for about two and a half quarters. Yes, they also gave up a million points in the Rose Bowl but that's what happens when you're down three cornerbacks against the best passing attack in the nation and have to start Micah "I play running back!" Bernard instead. The Utes still have their Rising star at QB to supplement a nasty rushing attack (hi again, Micah) which should give the Gators all they can handle. But...SEC talent...a new coach looking for something to prove, and in the Swamp of all places, where even the 2021 Tide barely escaped with their skins. I can't shake the feeling the Gators pull this one off. The SEC lands a one-two punch against the Pac-12 to kick off 2022 (after the Big Ten did the same in the offseason). UU: 24--UF: 27
Schweinfurth: This should be a fun one to watch. Utah should actually have the full complement on defense, as opposed to what they rolled out in the Rose Bowl. They are just scrappy. I just haven't been sold on Florida for a few years. It's not for lack of talent. Something with the coaching has just seemed off. The Utes are a strong team and should keep it close. Close enough to win...? UU: 28--UF: 24
Seeberg:  Like many Buckeye fans I came away impressed with the Utes in the Rose Bowl shootout last year.  The Gators haven't impressed much since Urban left  I'm pretty sure the Swamp is a good enough environment to keep the home team in it, but too much turnover- and too many turnovers- will likely be their undoing against a sound and more disciplined squad.  Utes get what at least feels like a marquee win on their path to be the "we really have to invite a fourth?" team to the CFP this year (can't wait to see the garbage that gets in when we go to 12!).  UU: 31--UF: 20

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ THE Ohio State Buckeyes

Draper: It's finally here.  I'm so excited to see Jim Tressel as the guest picker on Gameday.  He's in town, former coach at OSU, coached the ND coach in college. It just works out perfectly....what?....WHO THE HELL IS JACK HARLOW? I wish I could find the brilliant mind that came up with that choice.  Regardless, the Buckeyes enter the year as many people's pick for the National Champion so expectations abound.  The top 3 (Bama, UGA, and OSU) rightfully dominate the airwaves, and I agree those 3 teams have separated from the pack.  Notre Dame may be in that 2nd tier (or 3rd if you put Bama alone in the 1st), but the chasm between those 3 and the world is enormous.  CJ Stroud is rightfully the Heisman frontrunner and he needs to start the campaign now.  I would argue that OSU has the best QB, WR room, and possibly O-line in the country while touting a very strong running attack to boot.  ND has a nice defense, but I'll be stunned if they stymie the Bucks.  The questions are all over the defense.  Jim Knowles isn't going to snap his fingers and turn the 2021 Silver Bullets into the 85 Bears overnight (despite what the message board crazies say), but I do believe that we will see massive improvements from last year.  If the Buckeye defense can be even at a top 30-40 level, I think this offense is good enough to outscore anyone.  So long as the moment isn't too big for these players (and why should it be when this is the squad that played in the Rose Bowl), I expect a comfortable win.  There will be moments as every week 1 game entails, but if Day and Co. can keep Coleridge Bernard focused and the defense improving, Buckeye Nation will have a big win to remember.  Wishing good luck to Marcus Freeman the rest of the way, but this Saturday, you're the enemy.  ND: 20 -- OSU: 45
Hoying: I hate scheduling this game in week 1. The stakes are far too high to open with anything but a nice cupcake like Ohio or Cincinnati, and ambitious scheduling, while nice for the TV ratings, can lead to nasty upsets while the Buckeyes are still getting unfamiliar parts settled into place. Think Virginia Tech in 2014, or USC in 2009, or even Oregon last year. Ohio State was definitely better than any of those teams, but the Buckeyes had some early-season vulnerabilities their opponents were able to exploit (inexperienced QB, whatever the hell 2009's play calling was). Last year, we were totally in the dark as to how Coombs's defense would pan out. Sure, the 2020 defense skidded on its face to the finish line, but was that incompetence from the coordinator or the understandable fruits of COVID cancellations and disqualifications? We started an all-new back seven against Minnesota to tune up for Oregon and they were clearly not ready for noontime the following week. The offense played well enough to win except for a couple of crucial fourth down miscues and an inopportune turnover late. Remember when people wondered if CJ Stroud even belonged on the depth chart, after he put up 484 yards against the Ducks on an injured shoulder? Remember when the coaches still thought starting Master Teague over TreVeyon Henderson (or even Miyan Williams) was our path to rushing success? And now this year's team needs to be ready to perform without a warmup. Even the 2009, 2014, and 2021 teams got relatively light aperitifs before their faceplants. But this year, the cleat is on the other foot. At the risk of contradicting everything I just said, I love opening against Notre Dame this year. Suddenly, it's Ohio State with all the pieces already in place on offense, and a decent amount of experience (for better or worse) on the defensive side, including shiny new safety Tanner McCallister familiar with the new (and hopefully improved) scheme and fresh off a Fiesta Bowl win against...Notre Dame! The Irish are breaking in a new QB, a new RB, and a brand new head coach, and are missing their top WR, all on the road at night at one of the toughest stadiums in the world, which will be r o c k i n g on Saturday. What should we expect to see? Well, unless Aidan Hutchinson magically appears on the Irish D-line, I don't think anyone is going to be able to slow down the Ohio State attack, at least between the 20's. God-willing, Big Ten Legend Justin Frye has been able to do something about our red zone running game, but we also saw a little shake and bake from Stroud toward the end of last season (that touchdown against TTUN that got called back was lovely) that may open up some additional scoring opportunities this year. Expect to pull your hair out a few (or more) times watching Notre Dame break open huge plays on busted assignments, but much like Michigan State and Purdue last year I don't expect them to keep pace with the Buckeyes early. Then the pressure, the lights, and Stadium O-H-I-O should do the rest. Buckeyes win convincingly and buy themselves some time to get the defense fully ironed into place. OSU: 48--ND: 31

Schweinfurth: Nothing like a big game on campus. I can't remember a build up to an opener like this since, maybe, Washington in 2003. The Buckeye offense is just loaded. CJ Stroud is healthy entering this year (unlike the shoulder fatigue he had last year) and from all accounts has only improved. TreVeyon Henderson is a year more mature and got a full year in the Marrotti Dojo. And then the receiving corps is just *chef's kiss* the cherry on top. My eyes will be on the defense though. What did Jim Knowles do to get this unit playing with confidence and speed? Watch out if this unit is even a middle of the pack unit this year. As for the game. Ohio State just has so much more talent than Notre Dame. I love Marcus Freeman. He's always been my guy. He just doesn't have the talent to match up, yet. This feels closer than the 17.5 spread that's being offered up right now. Time to get that early season night game monkey off the back. OSU: 35--ND: 21 
Seeberg:  The storylines in this one are just endless. Top 5 opening week matchup, historically great programs, head coach coming into his former stadium, new DC in Columbus, Heisman favorite QB, just pick one.  For me, this one is strength on strength (OSU O, ND D) and weakness on assumed weakness (ND O, OSU D).  As mediocre as Ohio State's defense was last year, the new scheme fits our personnel seamlessly.  Losing Proctor on the back end last year hurt, as he could mask deficiencies well.  Now, the 4-2-5 base defense they will be in takes a linebacker off the field (a position of weakness for several years now), and adds another DB (McAllister, Proctor and Hickman might be the best 3-safety combination in the country).  With Burke shutting down one side of the field every week, I genuinely expect the D to be top 20.  Any defense that good when coupled with the absurd talent on offense will be a combination that should produce a lot of Ws.  Oddly, the past 15 years or so the Buckeyes have struggled at home in these big early-season games, but nearly all of those losses have something in common:  Breaking in a new starting QB (Troy against Texas, Barrett against VT, Stroud against Oregon).  Clearly not the case this year.  There's also a rumor the Buckeyes will be in scarlet-and-gray sleeves again for this one (PLEASE) to pay homage to the '02 title team.  Let's make the scoreline pay homage to the '95 squad as Eddie, Hoying, Glenn, er, I mean Henderson, Stroud and JSN run away from the Irish.  OSU: 45--ND: 26

Upset Special
Draper: ECU over NC State
Hoying: Western Michigan over Michigan State
Schweinfurth: South Dakota State over Iowa
Seeberg:  North Dakota over Nebraska 

New Year's Six - Roses are Red, Oranges are Blue

 Final Standings:

1.) Hoying 40-18 (5-8 upset)
1.) Draper 40-18 (4-9 upset)
1.) Seeberg 40-18 (3-10 upset)
4.) Schweinfurth 39-19 (3-10 upset)

What do Ohio State, Oklahoma, and Clemson have in common? They're all teams I would much rather see win the National Championship than a certain #2 seed that will not be named in this introduction. At least down seasons for the Buckeyes still end up in Pasadena, and not in the Valero Alamo Bowl or the *shudder* Cheez-It Bowl.

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 30

Peach Bowl: Michigan State Spartans vs. Pittsburgh Panthers

Draper: Hooray! The game with all the stars sitting out.  Michigan State is really nothing spectacular, but losing a running back is very different from losing a Heisman finalist QB.  The Spartans should be able to rally around their boring style without losing too much of a step.  I don't know if I can say the same for Pitt and the loss of Kenny Pickett.  Pat Narduzzi comes up short against the team that made him.  MSU: 20 -- Pitt: 17
Hoying: What's easier to replace: a star running back or a star quarterback? Which one do you see sitting out more series on an average Saturday afternoon? Sure, backup Spartan RB Jordan Simmons is quite the dropoff from Kenneth Walker, but Pitt is starting a quarterback who has 14 attempts and has appeared in a total of 5 games this season. Michigan State's glaring flaw this year has been its pass defense, which means that their Achilles heel is effectively getting its dip in the Styx with Pickett moving on to the NFL a game early. Cardale Jones isn't swooping in to save the Panthers anytime soon. MSU: 31--Pitt: 20

Schweinfurth: Opt out game number one! Woo hoo! No Kennith Walker and no Kenny Pickett. Which is the bigger loss? I'll say Pickett. The Spartan should be able to move the ball without Walker. Minus, Pickett? I just don't think Pitt has a chance. MSU: 28--Pitt: 10
Seeberg:  As previously stated, this is a game that has severely lost its luster.  May be the most ho-hum matchup since the inception of the New Years' Six.  One team lost an elite QB, the other an elite RB...but QB is arguably the most important position in all of sports, so advantage Spartans, despite their miserable pass D.  Spartans keep the 2-0 (thus far, go MD!) B1G train rolling.  MSU: 31--Pitt: 23

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 31

Cotton Bowl: Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

Draper: The cartoon above contains my thoughts about this game.  Yeah, Cincinnati is fun and they have some players (especially in the defensive secondary), but this is Bama we're talking about (even though they've been 'disrespected all year according to their team'...).  Make no mistake that last year was a major rebuilding year...in which they had the Heisman winner and easily dispatched of a loaded OSU squad (albeit nothing like 2019's).  Jameson Williams headlines the offense.  UC will do everything to slow him down, and they just might....but there's always another 20 weapons.  The plucky Bearcats will start fired up, but it's Bama's world and we're just living in it.  UC: 20--Bama: 41

Hoying: Let's be honest: this year's Alabama looks a lot more like 2019's flawed squad than last year's impervious world-beater. That Auburn game was atrocious, and exposed a lot of issues with the Tide offense. Jameson Williams left that game earlier on a targeting call, and the Tide couldn't do anything thereafter until the last minute of the game. And now their only other WR, John Metchie, is out for the season with a torn ACL. With this setback, I don't see Alabama scoring enough points to complete a second set of back-to-back championships (spoilers for next week), but they have been given the tremendous gift of playing this year's Playoff impostor team in the semifinals. No, I'm not saying that Cincinnati didn't earn their spot this year (one of the biggest factors in their favor is that there isn't anyone else the Playoff could've plausibly taken instead), but they're not putting the same kind of athletes on the field as Bama, Georgia, or the Team Up North. Last year, Alabama got the gift game of playing Notre Dame in the Playoff. The year before, Oklahoma fell into LSU's lap. I don't expect this game to be quite as big as a wipeout as those, but Cincinnati is not on Alabama's level. Not yet. UC: 13--Bama: 27

Schweinfurth: There is a trophy involved, so you always pick Bama. Cincy is a nice story, and I am rooting for the Fightin' Ficks. The Tide seems to have seized on the second chance they got against Auburn and haven't looked back. Bama wins, but closer than you think. UC: 17--Bama: 24

Seeberg:  Gotta be honest- I just don't have it in me to break this game down.  Bama looked like hot garbage against it's rival and then absolutely pasted the best D in the country.  Bama by a million.  UC: 17--Bama: 38

Orange Bowl: Georgia Bulldogs vs. Michigan Wolverines

Draper: Gross, gross, gross....There isn't a team playing better football than the Wolverines right now.  The Dline is wreaking havoc, they're stuffing the run, and running exceptionally well.  However, the Dawgs defensive front will be the best they've faced all year (I wish I could say second best, but OSU had a rare 'down year' on the DLine).  If they can stop the run and pressure McNamara (which I think they will to an extent), it will come down to the UM pass rush and the ability to get home on a wheel of fortune QB.  UGA hasn't really beat anyone of note, but if they can keep this like the opening game against Clemson (painfully slow and boring), I think the superior athletes of Georgia pull it out.  OSU couldn't stop the run with questionable (at best) linebacker play.  If Georgia can contain Haskins and Corum (tall order), I think the come away with a victory.  UGA: 20 -- UM: 17
Hoying: It kills me to look at these Playoff matches because all of these teams are vulnerable. This is a top-3 weakest field in Playoff history, along with 2014 and 2017, and I believe the Buckeyes could really have done some damage, maybe even won the whole thing. Instead, it's the Team Up North getting their chance at immortality, and I'd give them more than a puncher's chance this year. At least, that would be the case if the matchups weren't all wrong in this game. All year long Georgia was supposed to be some sort of defensive juggernaut, but Alabama showed how a team could stretch the field and hit them for big plays. That is not the Wolverines' game at all. The Tide rushed for a mere 4.4 yards per carry (buoyed by 3 big runs from Bryce Young), doing their real damage burning the Bulldogs over and over again with everyone's favorite ring-chasing turncoat. Who's the Wolverines' big play threat? Cornelius Johnson? Andrel Anthony? I've got bad news for the dinosaurs calling plays for the Maize and Blue: running Blake Corum and Hassan Haskins into a brick wall over and over again isn't going to strike fear into either of the SEC Playoff teams this year (it'll flatten Cincinnati, though, so pray we don't see that matchup). Man, I wish we could've seen what Olave and Wilson could have done to these guys (Georgia, that is; we did get to see them scorch the Wolverines one last time). We'll have to settle for seeing Henderson, Smith-Njigba, Fleming, Harrison, Egbuka, and Stroud write their own script to close the book on the Bulldogs' title defense hopes next year. Bulldogs move one step closer to ending their 40-year drought. UGA: 20--UM: 13 

Schweinfurth: Michigan's strength is running the ball. Georgia's strength is stopping the run. Georgia has been a little suspect in the secondary, which McNamera could take advantage of if given time. There should be a lot of running in this game. The team who has to rely on their QB the most will lose. I'll believe Michigan is back if they ban beat Georgia. I just don't think it will happen. UGA: 24--UM: 21
Seeberg:  One-dimensional teams can't win the title...then again, I didn't expect the run first, second, and last Wolverines to even sniff the playoff to begin with.  Bama shredded the vaunted Bulldog D but Cade and Co. are not built quite the same so following that blueprint is unlikely.  Georgia may struggle to score against their solid defensive counterparts.  I also trust neither of these coaches in a big game for a litany of reasons.  Truth be told, it feels like a toss up, and when that happens I'm going with who I would rather win.  Hooray for another SEC rematch *facepalm*  UGA: 24--UM: 16

SATURDAY, JANUARY 1

Fiesta Bowl: Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys

Draper: Motivation defines bowl season.  This is one in which the Irish had their hearts ripped out by their former coach and his FAAMUHLY on his great dayuh, but the team respects and cares for their new young leader in Marcus Freeman.  On the other side, Jim Knowles bolted for greener pastures in Columbus.  The Pokes literally ended less than  a yard short of the playoff this year.  Will they enter the bowl season looking to prove they deserved a chance or will they curl up and die.  Honestly, Notre Dame has all the clout on their side with the chip on the shoulder, but they're missing one little thing.....a great team.  I don't know if they have the horses with Jack Coan at the helm and Kyle Hamilton on the sideline.  This is a dumb pick as I think Okie State will come in deflated and Freeman will give the Irish purpose, but I'm going to ride with Gundy here.  I think the talent is better on the Orange and Black sideline. ND: 24--OkSt: 31
Hoying: Hoying's first law of bowl picks: never pick the team with the missing coach. Yes, I know the future is here with ex-Buckeye Marcus Freeman hoping to finish what Brian Kelly started, but there's always a bit of friction during the transition. Of course, Oklahoma State is missing their star DC, as Jim Knowles is already making preparing his plans to stop Notre Dame with a different OSU. So I suppose the coaching situation is a bit of a wash. Let’s look to what the teams have done this season. Notre Dam’s looked fine, I guess, but I can’t point to a signature win on the season. They had one shot, at home, against a team with vastly inferior talent, and they lost by multiple scores. The Cowboys came about 6 inches short from the Playoff thanks to a game plagued by turnovers. That can play right into the hands of the Irish (see the 4^th quarter of the Wisconsin game) but I think the Cowboys have the sense to play smart, solid football and dare Jack Coan to beat them. ND: 20—OkSt: 24 

Schweinfurth: This is a game of addition by subtraction for Notre Dame. No more Brian Kelly, and that is a load off of the players. OK State lost the voice and leader of the defense to the Buckeyes. I think the Irish play inspired for Marcus Freeman. More salt for Gundy. ND: 28--OkSt: 21
Seeberg:  Ah, the coaching carousel causing chaos.  Alliteration aside, I'm not sure which way to lean on this one.  Notre Dame lays a lot of eggs in these games historically, but a new day may be dawning with a former Buckeye at the helm.  Tough to say what the Cowboys will do- they do see these games much.  (Plus I still recall witnessing, in person, a higher-ranked Cowboys team get dismantled in the Alamo Bowl in 2004 by the Buckeyes).  Whether Freeman will be a good head coach remains to be seen, but being abandoned by their head coach should leave a bad taste in the mouths of the ND squad and I expect some of that to be expressed on the field.  Golden Domers start strong and hold on late.  ND: 27-OkSt: 24

Sugar Bowl: Mississippi Rebels vs. Baylor Bears

Draper: No freaking clue what to do about this game.  Lane Train is the most erratic, high variance coach out there while Aranda is a freaking robot.  Both teams are near the highest stages they've ever ascended although both have made a BCS/NY6 bowl before.  Matt Corral has said he's playing regardless of the advice to sit this one out, which is a huge boon for the Rebels.  The last time I saw these teams, Ole Miss won the Egg Bowl in convincing fashion and Baylor pulled off the monster ending....to one of the stupidest, most boring championship games ever.  Let's have some fun and roll with the crazy coach.  Miss: 38--Bay: 28
Hoying: So, the Bears win the Big 12 and draw the #8 Rebels, while the Cowboys lose the Big 12 championship and draw the #5 Irish? Reminds me of when the Buckeyes had to play #3 Texas in 2008 instead of going to the Rose Bowl…oh well. The Bears have been playing tough down the stretch, including holding Oklahoma to 14 points and making them look utterly lost, but the Lane Train is a different beast. True, the Rebs haven’t scored more than 31 points since their 52-51 squeaker over Arkansas back in early October. But Matt Corral isn’t Spencer Sanders, and you’re not going to be able to stand back and let the Rebels beat themselves the way Oklahoma State did. The SEC may be in the midst of getting exposed in a big way this bowl season, but I expect the big boys to step up and take care of business, culminating in an all-SEC title game (the lesser of two evils) and a Sugar Bowl win. Miss: 31—Bay: 24

Schweinfurth: Ole Miss can score with anyone. I really don't know if Baylor can get the stops needed to win this one. Hop on the Lane Train. Miss: 42--Bay: 31
Seeberg:  Bowl season, in my opinion, lends itself to the aggressive, unpredictable coaches that are willing to empty the playbook and let their athletes enjoy themselves at least a little bit.  That describes Lane Kiffin almost to a T.  If Matt Corral truly plays as he has said he will, that should be enough offensive firepower to outlast the Bears.  Miss: 38--Bay: 31

Rose Bowl: THE Ohio State University Buckeyes vs. Utah Utes

Draper: This game terrifies me to no end.  This is the pinnacle of achievement for the Utes.  They have exceeded all expectations, won the Pac12 South, won the Pac12, and made the Granddaddy of them All, while the Bucks are here as a consolation prize.  Bowl season is about nothing more than motivation in non-playoff games....and there is no real reason for the Bucks to get excited.  This is the 'Ship or Die culture that we've seen created with the playoff and it's here to stay regardless of our desires.  Best of luck to Olave, Wilson, Garrett, and Petit-Frere, but man would I like to see you again.  Utah will be playing with their hair on fire and has looked phenomenal over the last few games. Utah has the momentum, but OSU (even with the opt-outs) has the better talent.  There are 2 bright spots for OSU: 1) This is a chance for the young players to step up and take their spots for next year.  The receiver room is still loaded and there will be a battle for playing time (along side JSN).  Can the defense find the next core group? This is were an identity can be formed.  The second potential bright spot: this is CJ's moment.  Regardless of all the talking head chatter, Stroud had a fantastic 1st season and I think we see nothing but growth.  Here is the time for Ryan Day to develop his QB for phase 2 (and phase 1 was already pretty darn good).  CJ is on a mission, and that mission starts now.  QB7 is sending a message.  Take note TSUN...we haven't forgotten.  OSU: 45--UU: 35

Hoying: I haven’t seen a game with this many red flags for the Buckeyes since 2018 Purdue. This may be the biggest game in Utah history, other than maybe the 2019 Pac-12 Championship with a Playoff spot on the line,. Yeah, there was the Sugar Bowl win over Alabama in 2008 but this is the Granddaddy of Them All, a sentiment that seems to have been lost on four of this year’s Buckeye standouts. To Ohio State’s credit, the team is saying all the right things, and I don’t think Ryan Day is going to just roll over and let the season peter out. And, even with 4 starters out, the Buckeyes still have a massive talent advantage. That being said, the Utes run the same type of nasty physical rushing offense that dealt the Buckeyes both of their losses this year, not quite as well as the Wolverines do, but a darn sight better than Oregon. The rivalry game may have been the true test of the Buckeyes’ ceiling this year, and shattered fantasies of how comprehensively a defense can be rebuilt mid-season, but Utah is still an acceptable make-up exam for the Duck fiasco. Can the Buckeyes execute against what is essentially Oregon-but-better? Ohio State was one of the most inexperienced teams in the nation when the Ducks ate their lunch back in September; what have the Silver Bullets learned since then? Just how good are these 5* WRs that have been backing up Olave and Wilson all year while barely seeing the field? Does Matt Barnes’s bag of (predictable, non-adjustable) tricks work on teams that aren’t playing the game of their lives against their bitter rivals? I’m so close to pulling the trigger on a letdown loss to end the season, but there’s a little voice inside me that keeps insisting that this group took the loss to Michigan, and the Wolverines’ comments after the game, personally. Remember what the Buckeyes did to Clemson last year, with a team nowhere near as good as the one that lost the heartbreaker the year before? I expect something similar in store for the Wolverines next year, but it starts here, now, with a temperature check on whether this team believes they still have something to prove before the offseason. I have faith in my coach and my quarterback to lead them there. Get your popcorn ready. OSU: 45—UU: 41

Schweinfurth: The Bucks are in a no win situation here. Win and you beat an over matched opponent. Lose and you are on a two game losing streak and the questions and doubt get louder. This Rose Bowl will be a changing of the guard at wide out. No Wilson, no Olave. Good thing we still have JSN. Day lamented not getting Henderson the ball in the Michigan game. I don't think he will make that mistake again. Defensively, Utah is going to run the ball. This Utah team out muscled Oregon, who out muscled Ohio State. Not a good combo. Barns and company need to figure out how to use three linebackers (one of the biggest issues in the Michigan game) and how to slow down the run or this will be ugly. I don't have a good feeling about this, but hopefully Stroud embraces the villain status. OSU: 42--UU: 38
Seeberg:  So Bama gave everyone the blueprint to beat UGA, but the Wolverines likely don't have the right roster setup to take advantage of that information.  Then there's the Utes, built essentially like a poor man's UM, who just provided a textbook on how to beat OSU this season.  The Buckeyes' worst offensive output of the season was at Nebraska...when Wilson was out.  Uh oh.  For all of Stroud's success, I believe he has zeroed in on Wilson a LOT this season, at the expense of Olave's numbers which is insane because I'm still convinced he's the better receiver.  Of course, BOTH are sitting out so that's almost a moot point.  Another Garrett, of the Haskell variety, is also sitting, and losing a key cog in the middle in an already porous run D is no small issue either.  The talent gap is, even without 4 starters, very sizable.  However, talent disparities can be overcome with good schemes (check) and high motivation (pretty sure half their fan base never even realized the Rose Bowl was an option, so big check there).  It comes down to Ryan Day's gameplan.  He makes no bones about the fact that he's a pass-first coach...will he be still with his top two WRs out?  If the answer is yes, I fear it will be a long afternoon is Pasadena.  My wife fell asleep for the last 20 minutes of The Game and I envied her; sadly, I have a sinking feeling I will envy her again.  OSU: 31--UU: 35

Week 14: I'll Be Home For Advent

Standings:

1.) Seeberg 37-15 (3-10 upset)
2.) Hoying 36-16 (5-8 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 36-16 (3-10 upset)
4.) Draper 35-17 (4-9 upset)

When the season's been too lonely
And the road has been too long
And you think that wins are only
For the lucky and the strong,
Just remember in December
Far beneath the bitter snow
Lies the Bowl from the Committee
In the New Year, called the Rose.

FRIDAY

Pac-12: Oregon Ducks vs. Utah Utes

Draper: It seems like yesterday that Utah smashed this Duck team in Salt Lake, but who doesn't love a good rematch (everyone....the answer is everyone). Oregon hasn't looked the same since the game in Columbus, but they do have talent on both sides.  That being said, Tavion Thomas had no trouble running all over the Ducks and I don't see that suddenly changing.  Thibideoux will get his, but they'll neutralize him by simply running the other way. I know beating a team 2x in a season is 'supposedly' difficult, but I think the Ute ground game repeat history. Ore: 24--Utah: 31
Hoying: I don't know about you, but after I saw Utah eviscerate the Ducks in Salt Lake City, I was just itching for a chance to see such a thriller repeated. Since the Buckeyes are likely headed to the Rose Bowl, it's probably better to face the evil you know than the evil you don't, but I didn't see anything from Oregon the first time these teams met that would lead me to believe they have any kind of edge over the Utes. I know Utah was in this same position in 2018 and 2019, and Washington and Oregon sneezed during their backswing and ruined their Rose Bowl hopes, but enough has to be enough at some point, right? The Ducks suffer their second loss to Utah (the two Utes?) on their way out of NY6 contention. Ore: 20--Utah: 23
Schweinfurth: Utah straight up bullied the Ducks a couple of weeks ago. That beating was so thorough, I just don't think the Ducks match up with the Utes well. It will be closer due to the second game syndrome, but the Utes should win. Ore: 17--Utah: 24

Seeberg:  We all know the "tough to beat a good team twice in a season" adage.  The first meeting between these two was SO one-sided, however, it's hard to imagine the Ducks making up such a wide margin, even with a slightly healthier roster than the last go-round.  Besides, even if the Ducks manage to win this rematch they'd get a rude awakening in the Rose Bowl.  But no worries, they'll drop this one regardless.  Ore:24--Utah: 34

SATURDAY

Big 12: Baylor Bears vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Draper: Can the Pokes finish the job? I don't know if everyone understands that Okie State is in serious contention to be in the CFP.  While the Big 12 is 50 ft. of crap (that's losing their 2 biggest names), the Cowboys' defense has been phenomenal.  Baylor has quietly also had a great season with Coach Dave Aranda being targeted left and right (although I think he re-signed with the Bears).  I don't think the Bears are in with a win, I actually think it's very likely the Pokes hop in (look out Cincy...).  Mike Gundy continues one of his best season ever and ends with a Big 12 title.  Bay: 17--OkSt: 24

Hoying: When you see rematches, rematches everywhere during another Championship Saturday, it helps to examine the previous meeting and see if there was any fluky trend that tipped the result in the wrong direction. And no, this was just a standard grind it out defensive victory by 2021 OSU (aaagh). If anything, the fluke in these teams' prior matchup was that Cowboy QB Spencer Sanders was picked off three times. Don't bother trying to take any lessons away from Bedlam last week, other than congratulations on being the weirdest game in the weirdest season since 2007. It's been a nice ride, Baylor, but we'll find another team to take your NY6 slot. Time to start sweating, Cincinnati. Bay: 20--OkSt: 27
Schweinfurth: Baylor had that darling look about them for about the first half of the year. Now, it's OK State. Gundy has the Pokes playing about as well as anyone. For some reason, I smell a shootout. Bay: 35--OkSt: 42

Seeberg: Honestly?  I said it before and I'll say it again:  I gave up trying to figure out the Big XII about halfway through the year.  Still, trusting the Cowboys paid dividends last week.  I'd love to see Baylor win (along with Georgia and others) to produce some chaos for the committee, but the Cowboys play solid football and minimize mistakes, a crucial component of a team this late in the season (see:  Ohio State last week).  Who knows?  Maybe an OSU will make the playoff after all *shrugs*  Bay: 24--OkSt.--31 

SEC: Georgia Bulldogs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

Draper: Sigh....It's just....sigh....  This game potentially has monstrous implications for the playoff.  Many think that Bama and UGA are both in regardless.  However, the loser is on the edge.  If you look at these teams' resumes, you find that the quality wins are severely lacking.  UGA has been dominant on defense all year, but who's their best win? Auburn? Clemson?  What about Bama? Auburn in 4 OT? Ole Miss?  Bama should be out with a loss, but UGA becomes an interesting case if UM, OkSt, and Cincy all win.  The Bama name itself was enough to beat the Tigers last week (talent wasn't the reason).  Can the past haunt the Dawgs with an offense that simply isn't as good as thought?  I think it might.  Bama is led by former Buckeye and Biletnikoff finalist (over Earth, Wind, and Fire for some reason), Jameson WIlliams, and they sneak out a win over a relatively untested UGA after a late game crapping away.  UGA: 23--Bama: 24

Hoying: Welcome to Footballmageddon week 2, although, ironically, with much less on the line than last week's headliner in Ann Arbor. Georgia is likely already locked into a Playoff spot win or lose, and after last week's miracle escape from Jordan Hare, the Tide are well positioned to steal the #4 spot with a loss if enough other games break their way. The Dawgs have been doing their best 2019 Ohio State impression after a surprising-in-hindsight tight victory over Clemson in the season opener. But along the way, who has really had the tools to challenge them? Kentucky? Arkansas? The nasty truth the SEC this year is that most teams are clustered around the 6-6 range, and Georgia has been fortunate to escape the more elite teams toward the top of the standings. Alabama, by contrast, has been through the wringer of the West, but not with style. Scoring 3 points in the first 59 minutes against 6-6 Auburn is not going to impress anyone, especially on the heels of giving up 35 to Arkansas. Georgia's defense continues to be the best in the nation to a severe outlier degree (their two closest competitors, Wisconsin and Oklahoma State, both got a bit exposed in their rivalry games), but a better kept secret is that the Dawgs have one of the nation's most efficient offenses as well. They just haven't had to do anything this year. I'm a little concerned how Georgia will hold up once they get punched in the mouth by a real threat. Tennessee shook them around for a little while before the dreadnought righted itself (could you imagine being dumb enough to pick Tennessee to pull that upset off?), but I'm not sure the Bulldogs are battle tested enough to stroll to their first national title in 40 years. I think we won't find out the answer to that question against Alabama. I really hope we don't find out the answer against Michigan in the Playoff. Georgia gets revenge for 2018 (and 2017, and 2012) and FINALLY gets the Saban monkey off their back. UGA: 27--Bama: 20

Schweinfurth: Bama has been flirting with disaster for the entire second half of the season. Their defense is capable, but not quite to the standard we are used to seeing. Georgia's defense is for real. It is championship season, and Saban's teams always bring their best when there is a trophy involved. I just don't see it materializing this year. UGA: 28--Bama: 17

Seeberg:  I have to be honest, until last week (and admittedly I may be knee-jerk overreacting to that performance), I was leaning Bama in this one.  UGA really hasn't played anyone in quite some time, and Bama's typically potent offense would easily be the stiffest test for this vaunted Bulldog D.  Then Bama literally forgot to score for FIFTY-THREE BLEEPING MINUTES and somehow slithered to an atrocious 4-OT win against 6-loss (lol) Auburn.  At that rate, it might take 153 minutes to put points on the board against Georgia this season.  Either way, it's a race to 20, and I can't fathom the Tide making it there after last week.  UGA "pulls away" late.  UGA: 24--Bama: 16

AAC: Houston Wildcats @ Cincinnati Bearcats

Draper: Don't care.....Cincy is clearly the superior team, but they need to finish the job.  Fickell remains in the first Cincy victory, the 2nd would be an AAC championship, and the 3rd would be a playoff berth.  If Cincy wins convincingly, I think they're safe....maybe. However, there is always the chance that they get complacent down the stretch.  Fickell will rally the troops to care care of business and prepare to get wrecked in the semis.  Hou: 24--UC: 34

Hoying: It's all at your fingertips, UC. You've cracked the top 4, your coach isn't leaving for Notre Dame, USC, or LSU, and you have one last shot at a quality (but not too daunting) opponent to leave a last good impression on the Committee. Should the Bearcats be worried about Houston? Not really. Sure, they're undefeated in the AAC, but *waves hands dismissively*, and they got suffered an embarrassing lead-squandering loss to Texas Tech to start the season. UC has snapped out of whatever midseason funk that was causing them to sleepwalk through a few forgettable games. The hopes and dreams of the entire Group of 5 rest on you, Coach Fick. Go get it. Hou: 20--Cin: 31
Schweinfurth: Big props to Fickell for sticking with the Bearcats. That is no small thing and should amp Cincy up even more for this one. Houston is a fine team, but they are standing in the way of Group of 6 history. Bearcats win and on to the playoffs. Hou: 17--Cin: 35

Seeberg:  So.  Much.  Drama.  The coaching carousel has jumped into hyperdrive/up to 11/engaged at warp 9/whatever pop culture reference to something being fast.  Fickell staying with the Bearcats is huge, but we are literally in unprecdented times with a group of five team firmly established in the top 4.  It has GOT to be difficult for the Bearcats to tune out the noise and focus on the task at hand.  I'm sorry, what's the Houston?  I know, nobody knows you're in the game (and ranked!)  either.  I sense that Cinci will come out TOO hyped and fire an INT or even two.  I may be an eternally pessimistic individual, but with everything that swirled around Hamilton County this week I just don't see a solid, workman like Cincinnati effort.  This is Houston's playoff, and it will show from the opening kick.  Great run while it lasted, UC.  HOU: 31--Cin: 28

ACC: Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Draper: Both of these teams have been in a NY6 bowl in the BCS era....shocker, right? They were also among the worst BCS teams to snag a bid (hello, UConn!).  Kenny Pickett has had a fantastic year leading him to begin a quiet rise up the draft boards.  Wake just messed around all year to get a 10-win season and an ACC Atlantic title.  This is an ACC Wheel of Destiny type of game, but Pitt seems to have the edge.  I think they pull it out.  Put Pitt in! Pitt: 35--Wake: 24

Hoying: Start your engines, boys. Both of these teams rank in the top ten of scoring offense, and one of them (*cough Wake*) doesn't play defense so good. After a scorching hot start, the Demon Deacons morphed into more of a flaming wreck down the stretched but still managed to lock Florida State and Clemson out of the Atlantic division title for the first time since 2008. Pitt, meanwhile, has to be kicking themselves after gagging away two winnable games against Western Michigan and Miami. Win those and Pitt would be win-and-in against the Deacons this Saturday, but they'll have to settle for their first appearance in an NY6 bowl. Pickett outduels Hartman as the Panthers earn their first ACC championship. Pitt: 41--Wake: 31
Schweinfurth: Wake just hasn't looked the same since their first loss. It was almost as if they were figured out and everyone copied. The Deacons have been a great story so far, but Pitt pulls it out. Who saw that coming before the year started...Pitt: 38--Wake: 35

Seeberg:  In stark contrast to the contest below, this one will have...crap, what's it called?  Oh yeah...offense!  Other than the big SEC tilt, this will be the one to watch for entertainment value while you put up with your degenerate gambler cousin tell you he "almost" took that 4000:1 shot at the start of the season where Pitt and Wake Forest would wind up foes in the conference championship game.  Reminder, Wake scored 55 points in a LOSS this year.  Impressive in a less-than-positive way.  Can't imagine the Deacons will get enough stops against maybe the only offense in the conference more potent than their own.  Panthers in a fun one.  Pitt: 45--Wake: 37

Big Ten: Michigan Wolverines vs. Iowa Hawkeyes

Draper: A little real talk...my picks have been atrocious since midseason.  Sometimes, I've been unlucky, and sometimes, just dumb. Regardless, while I'm picking with my heart, most of my picks are against my desires.  Perhaps I'm hedging, perhaps just throwing darts, but I'm hoping most of these picks tank. That being said, the Wolverines defense (especially, Hutchinson) is the real deal.  The best description of Iowa was on twitter recently brought up by Bill Connelly....you seem to be in the game, then a quick turnover, you wake up, and realize the game is over.  Is there going to be a regression to the mean after the Wolverines got their big win? I don't think so.  Iowa is such a weird team, anything could happen....but I'm afraid doomsday may arrived.....I hate them.  Mich: 24--Iowa: 13

Hoying: *hurp* this is going to be a tough one. Harbaugh's *other* really good team, the one that came about an inch from an overtime win against Ohio State, suffered three losses. One was to the Buckeyes in the greatest edition of The Game ever. One was to #10 Florida State in the Orange Bowl on a last minute touchdown. And the third, was to Iowa. Not Playoff semifinalist Iowa. Not top 10 Iowa. Just regular, 8-5, standard Kirk Ferentz Iowa. Was it a trap game? I doubt it; the Wolverines played Maryland the week before and Indiana the week after. The Hawkeye defense simply swarmed the Wolverines, putting Speight out of his element and scoring a safety that exceeded the winning margin. And wouldn't you know it: that's exactly what the 2021 Hawkeyes have been doing, all the way from flummoxing Michael Penix in the opener to the tune of a 45% completion rate and 3 INTs, to doing much the same against Illini QB (and former Wolverine) Brandon Peters two weeks ago. (Don't ask about the Nebraska game, poor Nebraska has managed to be THE weird team in a weird year, although it's worth noting that the Hawkeyes beat the Huskers by a larger margin than Michigan did.) So, is there a reason to hope for a competitive matchup on Saturday in Indianapolis? Lol, are you serious? Maybe if Michigan doesn't get off the bus. You want to talk about defenses making QB's look uncomfortable? CJ Stroud was running for his life from Aidan Hutchinson on about every play that Treveyon didn't take the bullet for him. And you don't need to worry about the state of your passing game when you can put the team on Haskins and Corum's shoulders. Did you see what Wisconsin did to Iowa in October? This Saturday will be like that, but a million times worse. And yes, the Buckeyes would have done the same damn thing if they could have gone to Indianapolis this weekend instead. 2021 is the year of the weasel. Mich: 30--Iowa: 13

Schweinfurth: Did you watch the release in Ann Arbor last week? One gets the feeling that last week was the Wolverine's championship game. I've seen this story before, only a few hours south. The Game is such an emotional and physical drain, especially when you get a win for the first time in a decade. And they were still spouting off all week as if the Buckeyes were their opponent in the B1G Championship game. Iowa knows who they are and actually has a run defense to speak of. I...can't...pick...Harbaugh. This really feels like a let down game. Mich: 13--Iowa 16

Seeberg:  Won't be any surprises here.  We know what these two squads do and don't do.  It comes down to a few questions.  Can UM maintain last week's insanely high level?  No.  Is Iowa equipped to take advantage?  Not enough.  Am I lucky enough to see the Wolverines crash and burn after last week's dare-not-touch-the-sun performance?  To that I say HA...and no.  UM squeaks into the CFP *throws up in mouth*.  UM: 20--Iowa: 16