Week 1: Kicking the Tires

Welcome back to college football (if you didn't tune in to see the Noles get blarneyed by Georgia Tech last week). No tiptoeing out of the gate this year, as you can find a ranked matchup just about any time you tune in, even on the Lord's Day, with a nice mid-afternoon break on Saturday to enjoy dress rehearsal #1 for our beloved Buckeyes in this much anticipated season.

Clemson Tigers vs. Georgia Bulldogs

Draper: The Dawgs enter 2024 as everyone's "clear cut" number one team. The numbers have them lapping the field (although I'd argue the Buckeyes are nipping at their heels).  Their ace in the hole is Carson Beck leading the charge at QB.  Regarding Beck, I'm not 100% sold.  While he MAY be the best QB this year talent-wise, I don't think we've seen evidence on the field to prove that...yet.  There's no doubt that he is surrounded by a ton of talent and Smart will have the defense at a high level like normal.  Clemson has certainly fallen from the "elite" tier over the last few years, but they're still pretty darn good.  Cade Klubnik was a bit underwhelming last year, but should see some upgrades this year.  The biggest problem for the Tigers is they simply don't match up well across the board with the UGA and OSUs of the world.  They'll be hype around this game since these coaches both boast 2 national championships (AFLAC trivia question anyone?), but the talent gap is far too large to lean on an upset.  As we know, the Dawgs will be moving fast in the Benz.  Clem: 13--UGA: 31
Hoying: The death machine rolls on in Athens. Lest we forget, this was the consensus #1 team all last year until they faceplanted in the SEC Championship against the only coach that seems to be able to beat Kirby in the post-COVID era. And I don't see Old Nick prowling the sidelines at Clemson (or even in Tuscaloosa anymore). You can put together the finest non-cheating roster in America and that'll still only get you within 1 point of this decade's new SEC dynasty. Nobody else comes close. And that includes little ol' Clemson, who hasn't looked quite right since Justin Fields's finest hour in the Superdome back on New Year's 2021. What program used to churn out Heisman-caliber Alabama-threatening QB's like no other has stumbled since DJU turned into a pumpkin (look no further than last week for continued proof of that) and nobody has stepped up to restore the Clemson O to its former glory. I'm not sure they can turn this around under Dabo. The most surprising college football success story of the 2010s may be heading back into hibernation for another 40 years. They won't be missed. Clem: 13--UGA: 28

Schweinfurth: Has Dabo done anything in the last few years to show he runs a program able to compete? The guy shirks at NIL and the transfer portal. Fine, to each his own. But cherry picking the best transfers every year to complement the current roster is the way to win in the 2020s. UGA knows it, Ohio State knows it. Clemson doesn’t get it. There is a clear talent gap and the Tigers are on the wrong side of it. Dabo’s still a clown. Clem: 13—UGA: 38

Seeberg:  College football is, mercifully, back!  At least we can count on that every year, unlike the Longhorns.  In any event, this is a banger of an opening week game.  Wait, sorry, just now hearing it's 2024 and not 2018.  I am beginning to get the distinct sense that we will be able to look at Clemson in 20 years' time and find out Fields and Co. may have broken that program like Krenzel and Co. broke the U.  Of course, Dabo's pathetic inability to accept change is having a large say in that as well.  How many Brinks trucks would the Tigers send to Saban's address right about now?  Regardless, they just don't have the horses to compete for four quarters with the Bulldogs.  UGA pulls away in the second half.  Clem: 16--UGA: 34

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Texas A&M Aggies

Draper: Honestly, this should be the most interesting game of the week.  Both teams enter with title aspirations, but there are questions EVERYWHERE.  Can Riley Leonard pick up the mantle in South Bend? Can the Aggies finally break though without Jimbo hamstringing them? I don't really think either of these teams is up to the task this year, but this may be do or die already for Notre Dame with a relatively soft schedule and no conference championship game.  A&M will have the SEC to plow through but this would be a nice feather in the cap for later resume arguments.  In the end, I tend to think that the 12th man will be a little too much for Irish.  If Connor Wegman can be serviceable, the Aggies will get a statement win for the SEC in week 1.  One final thought: the Aggies new defensive minded head coach comes from Duke....the same place the new Irish QB comes from. Uh oh... ND: 20--TAMU: 24
Hoying: This game's too funny not to pick. One of these gets to come out of this one screaming, "It's finally our year!" while the other sucks down the copium that the shiny new 12-team Playoff will be their salvation after a disappointing start. And that's sad in a way: this game won't be nearly as devastating to the loser as it would have been even a year ago. Somehow A&M is favored in this game, which is surprising given that the Aggies have done a boatload of nothing since Johnny Football was freshman year Johnny Football, other than famously beat Alabama in 2021 (which accomplished nothing) and almost beat them a bunch of times since. Heck, even in the COVID year, when A&M went 9-1, they lost to the only good team they played (Alabama again) by 28 points (can you imagine). Notre Dame, meanwhile, has been achingly on the edge of greatness ever since Brian Kelly took over. In 2022 it was clear that they were a QB away from being a serious competitor. Then they picked up Sam Hartman, which was almost good enough to score more than 17 points against Ohio State at home. And then, after getting sliced and diced by Duke until Hartman's last minute scrambling heroics, they decided to steal Duke's QB, Riley Leonard instead. And he sucks! Regardless, and notwithstanding Kyle Field, the 12th Man, the Impossible Drill, Dude Perfect, etc., the Irish are the better team and should come out on top. ND: 24--TAMU: 20

Schweinfurth: Two teams that I don’t believe in until they actually win a big game. TAMU has been a mess the last few years and it may take a while to dig out. Notre Dame at least seems to be building something. The Domers should win this. ND: 28—TAMU: 20

Seeberg:  Are either of these teams...good?  Signs point to maybe.  Both are in the top 20.  We know that Coach Freeman has struggled in big early season games, but playing the Buckeyes may be a bit of a high bar.  The Aggies are certainly a step down from that.  I don't see a ton of offense in this one, so the 12th man will be largely silenced.  ND overpowers the Aggies.  ND: 20--TAMU: 13

Southern California Trojans vs. Louisiana State Tigers (Sunday night)

Draper: This game has the potential to be really fun because neither team really knows what a "defense" is.  I suppose the question is how good the LSU backup QB is.  Lincoln Riley will certainly have playmakers flying around the field and a brilliant scheme, but the trenches should be dominated by the Boys from the Bayou.  The loss of Alex Grinch will be a thing of the past, but one doesn't resurrect a defense in a heartbeat.  I think the main winner in this game will be those betting the over, but the Tigahs should be able to parlay the Vegas crowd into a big early season win.  USC: 30--LSU: 34
Hoying: OK, USC, welcome to the Big Ten. I'm ready to be disappointed. This is USC's first big-time early season SEC game since they got absolutely waxed by Alabama back in 2016 (which still didn't prevent them from ending up ranked #3 for some reason). This year's opponent isn't quite as daunting but this isn't 2016-17 era USC, either. The last time the Trojans were relevant they were graciously getting destroyed by Utah to open the door to CJ Stroud's last gasp at Buckeye immortality. Last season was just a series of comical farces in which Caleb Williams recorded inhuman feats while the defense refused to give the bare minimum to help him out. LSU wasn't exactly a steel trap on defense last year either, giving up north of 40 in each of their losses and above 30 in another five of their wins, but USC had offensive defense down to an art, giving up at least 34 points in each of their last nine (!) regular season games. Thankfully for the Trojans, the Grinch Who Stole Paychecks is no longer prowling their sidelines, but unless Jeff Hafley magically appears as his replacement, you aren't going to wash that stink off in just one season. LSU had the nation's top scoring offense last year and, while they may take a step back after losing their own Heisman winner, USC is about to find out that the SEC still just means more (points). USC: 27--LSU: 38

Schweinfurth: Has USC found a defense yet? Did they find a Heisman type QB? Yea, I didn’t think so. LSU isn’t great, but they will be able to ball somewhat easily. I don’t think LSU is any type of contender here, but they are better than the Trojans. USC: 28—LSU: 42

Seeberg:  Bit of a rebuild for both of these squads as both lost Heisman-winning QBs.  USC, however, didn't really have much of a defense to lose to begin with.  Quite frankly I'm astonished they're even ranked in the preseason.  Lincoln will probably get the offense to function without Caleb Williams, but traveling to LSU in week 1 is bound to be a rude awakening for any team, regardless of talent or coaching.  Say what you want about Brian Kelly but he's essentially Bo Pelini 2.0:  Good for 10 wins a year.  Yay upgrades!  USC: 20--LSU: 31

Akron Zips @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: This is going to be one of those games in which Buckeye nation will just find something stupid to gripe about (I know I know...that's NEVER happened before).  Of all the games this weekend, this is probably the worst of them all.  A 50.5 point spread is laughable, but it is what it is.  This year is all about making statements for this team.  These seniors came back to beat TTUN, win the B1G, win the Natty, and chew gum....and they're all out of gum.  While this game won't be close and the result will never be in doubt, an early interception, long pass given up on defense, missed FG, etc. will be magnified to epic proportions about why Day isn't the guy for the job.  Stop it.  Day has all he needs and we'll know on Nov. 30th at 3:30 PM if he can drive the ferrari, but for now, sit back and enjoy the ride.  My pick for the surprising star of the afternoon will be true freshman Jeremiah Smith.  I expect him to exceed the ridiculously high standards placed on him.  Howard throws for 3 (2 to Smith) and runs in another (much to the joy of Buckeye nation) while Judkins and Henderson each account for another on the ground.  The defense will be out for a statement so I'm calling for the shutout.  Akr: 0--OSU: 58 
Hoying: I'm trying to remember the last time this much hype surrounded the #2 team in the country. Yeah, there was Ohio State in 2020 and 2022, and Alabama/Clemson during their fierce mid-2010's rivalry. But the general consensus nationwide this season seems to be that the #2 Buckeyes, not #1 Georgia, have the best team in football on paper. The same consensus, however, points to Georgia winning the title due to the question marks over the heads of the Buckeyes' offensive line and the man standing behind them. The line should be...better...this year, but I feel like we've been saying this for three years straight at this point and we have precious little to show for it. If the line could have held out for a few fractions of a second more on one crucial play last year, the national championship wouldn't have needed to be asterisked and eventually rescinded. Of course, the Buckeyes were put in that position thanks to an atrocious early interception, the likes of which you would not expect to see from Stroud, or Fields, or Haskins, or even JT Barrett (that 2017 Iowa game, though). And I think that's all that we really need Will Howard to be. JT Barrett-level. He doesn't need to have a flawless deep ball, although it would be wonderful to be able to take advantage of the separation this year's WR corps is sure to create. Speaking of WRs, did I mention that Ryan Day is starting his first ever day one true freshman at offense this Saturday? That's right, Jeremiah Smith is about to do something that Garrett Wilson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Marvin Harrison, Jr., never did: start on day one. This man may low-key be the Big Ten MVP by the time the season is done. As for the line, at least there's some consistency in personnel. Urban Meyer took a hit-or-miss 2012 O-line that anchored an inconsistent offense, and turned them into a nigh-unstoppable juggernaut in 2013. Just add Taylor Decker. And the addition of Alabama transfer Seth McLaughlin at center should be a huge boost to the big uglies up front, snapping yips in the Rose Bowl aside. I think I may be more confident in the line this year than in the QB, but that could just be the lingering McCord hangover and the known mediocrity of KSU Wildcat Will Howard. It could be that he just needs a better scheme to thrive in, but don't expect the second coming of Justin Fields. At any rate, with an opponent like Akron, we won't learn anything this weekend, unless something is really, really wrong. Bucks by a million, and fifteen more to go. OSU: 52--Akr: 7

Schweinfurth: No bones about it, this should and will be a blowout. The only questions here is what does the usage look like for Judkins and Henderson. What does the WR rotation look like? Can the defense pitch a shutout? Can Ryan Day pull his starters before the end of the third quarter? I’m optimistic about this team, but Ohio State’s best teams don’t win anything. I truly hope this year bucks the trend. Kick back and enjoy this weekend. Football is back. OSU: 52--Akron: 3

Seeberg:  A remarkable offseason in so many respects is FINALLY over.  The Buckeyes take the field against an in-state opponent which has been a sure victory for over a century.  Other than staying healthy I'm hoping to see two things:  A consistent-if-not-yet-explosive offense and a dominant defense.  There are at least five players on this side of the ball who would have been drafted if they had chosen to leave (Burke, JTT, Sawyer, Hamilton, Williams) and at least two more would have been drafted if they had been in college long enough (Downs, Styles).  The 50-point spread has dropped to 48.5, likely a sign that smart money realizes the offense will need time to gel with a new QB, no Marv and an O-line that, while good, is thin, especially at tackle.  Get out early, get comfortable, get LOTS of experience for new RBs and OL that they'll need inevitably for this long season.  I'll be in the Shoe by 3 to watch TBDBITL kick off another season.  Let's Go Bucks!  OSU: 45--Akr: 3

Upset Special
Draper: South Dakota State over Oklahoma State (I wanted WVU)
Hoying: New Mexico over Arizona
Schweinfurth: WVU over Penn State
Seeberg:  Fresno State over TCUN

J.K., Hall, Day

 

Roy Hall.  It’s not a name that means much unless you’re a Buckeye fan of a certain age (33-45, give or take).  He had a reasonable career at Ohio State:  52 catches, 580 yards, 3 TDs.  He even turned himself into a 5^th round draft pick, though he only managed just 1 career NFL catch.  For those who need their memory refreshed, Hall was a senior on the 2006 Buckeye squad that dismantled everyone they played until they squeaked by a #2 TTUN team and then got smoked by future Buckeye coach Urban Meyer in the BCS title game.

That season’s game against the team up north was eye-opening for many reasons, but the main one is as follows:  Roy Hall had 3 catches, including a touchdown, on the game’s opening drive.  Jim Tressel, who is famous for repeating endlessly that the punt is the most important play in football, came out in a five-WR set.  On the very first play.  The vaunted maize and blue looked more confused than the defense in Remember the Titans when the high school team in the state title game went shotgun.  FIVE wideouts?  Did Tressel consult with Mike Leach when nobody was looking?  Was that even legal in the Big however-many in 2006?

Turns out it was legal, and it worked.  Troy Smith was a runaway Heisman winner that year, so of course the Buckeyes threw the ball all over the lot, in spite of Tress’s typical wishes.  He played to the strength of his team.  Good coaches create unique systems that work with the right players.  Great coaches adapt their systems to the strengths of their players.  Five nattys between the Penguins and Buckeyes make Tress a great coach by any measure.

Enter Ryan Day.  Much has been made of his willingness this year (a couple of seasons late according to many) to scale back his responsibilities.  Do less, delegate more, and hopefully the results will come.  In the meantime, however, it can be pretty easily argued that Day meets the above definition of a good coach, but not a great one.

All Buckeye fans have seen the picture on the bench of the 5 WRs:  Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, JSN, Marv and Julian Fleming.  By my count, that’s four first round picks and a 5-star who, when not injured, has been highly productive as well.  Emeka Egubka isn’t even pictured which is absolutely insane.  Can anyone guess how many plays all five ran together in a Buckeye uniform?  If you set the over/under at .5, you’d have to take the under, which is as sad as it is true.  Ryan Day could have trotted out freshman Marvin Harrison Jr. as the fifth wide receiver.  No defensive backfield in the history of college football is deep enough to cover him one on one.  Due to the absurdly tight WR rotation, he had three catches all season then three touchdowns in the Rose Bowl when Wilson and Olave opted out.  Marv was great, he was ready, but no 5-WR sets existed in Day’s offense, choosing instead to split out RBs and TEs.  Truly mind-boggling.

However, this wasn’t always the case.  Look no further than the only rivalry game Day has won so far.  In 2019, he inherited Urban’s team that, while utilizing the spread, used it primarily to run first, pass second.  That sharply contradicts Day’s philosophy, but that didn’t matter in Ann Arbor when J.K. Dobbins went berserk to the tune of 211 yards and four touchdowns on 31- yes you read that right- 31 carries.  That’s great coaching, adapting your system to the strengths of your roster. 

Last season, Day had two elite WRs (with one struggling to stay healthy) and what can only be described as a significant dropoff at quarterback.  However, in only one game did a running back run for over 150 yards (Treveyon, 162 against Wisconsin), and in no games did a running back even reach 25 carries.  The winner of the rushing battle against TCUN has won every single game this century.  You know who won the last three contests, sadly.

The expectations are sky high this year, as they should be.  The defense is elite, the offense has skill, and Day, in theory, is more hands-off.  This year’s roster has two J.K.-level running backs, and you can bet, if they’re healthy, they can be ridden to a phenomenal season- if Day allows it.  Chip Kelly has been historically willing to run the ball and their relationship is strong.   Given good health (fingers and toes crossed), and the introduction of helmet comms, there’s nothing to get in the way of the 2024 Buckeyes… except Ryan Day.

New Year's Six - Dawn of the Power Two

Final Standings:

1.) Draper 52-16 (1-11 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 50-18 (2-10 upset)
3.) Seeberg 46-22 (4-8 upset)

3.) Hoying 46-22 (2-10 upset)

The premier half-dozen bowls are upon us once again, and it feels like the end of an era in two different ways. For one, the four-team Playoff closes its decade-long run (1/10, too much Michigan). But also, once Florida State is able to secede from the ACC and join forces with the Big Ten (or Nineteen or whatever), each of these bowls will have featured a showdown between a Big Ten and SEC team, present or future. Except you, Oregon, you get to babysit this year's token chump. The future is now. The fight for America's flag-bearing college football conference has begun.

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 30

Peach Bowl: Mississippi Rebels vs. Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions

Draper: Of all the non-playoff NY6 games, this is the most difficult to pick....and also the game I care about the least.  Picking the 'better team' is a tough proposition in these types of games as 'who wants to play' is arguably more important.  I THINK a full strength Penn State is better than a full strength Ole Miss, but no Chop Robinson and potentially missing Fashanu and King make this interesting. It will come down to Drew discovering if Drew Allar can do anything.  Lucky for him, Kiffin isn't know for stellar defense.  Even though Manny Diaz has moved on to the shinier pastures of Duke, I think the defense travels and does enough to stifle Jaxson Dart and keep the B1G rolling. Miss: 17--PSU: 20
Hoying: Lane Kiffin finally did it. For the second time in his career, he beat a Power 5 team that finished with 9 wins or more that season. This time, it was a "cover your eyes, Chris Spielman" shootout against Jayden Heisman and the all gas no brakes LSU Tigers. But that didn't really translate into wins against the big fish on the SEC schedule this year, Alabama (at least it was close) and Georgia (not so much). Yes, we all know that Franklin has similar levels of success at Penn State, racking up a total of zero wins against the Big Two these last three years, but the man does show up for bowl games. Half the time at least. Drew Allar wasn't the wunderkind that was predicted by those so desperate to find a reason not to crown Ohio State or Michigan again this season, and Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton weren't quite Blake Corum and TreVeyon Henderson. But the defense was still a problem even for Harbaugh and Day, and Ole Miss has faceplanted this season when it gets away from its preferred track meet pace. Losing Manny Diaz will hurt but the pieces are still in place for Lions to get one over on the SEC. Miss: 20--PSU: 21

Schweinfurth: Penn State feels like a throw in here. Allar can’t (or won’t) throw the ball more than ten yards downfield. The PSU defense is good enough to keep them in the game, but I think there is just too much fire power in the Rebels' stable. Ole Miss: 28—PSU: 20

Seeberg:  Intriguing matchup here of highly contrasting styles, pretty similar talent, and coaches who consistently underachieve in the big ones.  A very realistic scenario exists where UM is the only B1G team to lose their bowl game.  It happened one other time, by the way, in 2017.  I haven't watched enough Ole Miss to know if Kiffin coaches badly in those games or not, but Franklin sure as hell lays egg after egg, all the while with that bemused look on his face like he's the most devout predestination believer on the planet and nothing he could do could possibly affect the outcome.  In short, I trust neither coach much, but I trust Kiffin more.  Rebels late.  Miss: 27--PSU: 23

Orange Bowl: Georgia Bulldogs vs. Florida State Seminoles

Draper: There was a slight chance the Noles, after being stupidly snubbed, would play the eff it card and come out ready to prove the world wrong.  However, they chose the other option of completely bailing on this game.  Every player of note is gone and an 18 year old kid, who struggled mightily against Louisville, gets to face Kirby Smart and the Dawgs without ANY key skill players.  There's no Jared Verse on the back end to pressure Carson Beck so this could get ugly quick.  Honestly, if FSU pulls this off with absolutely NO ONE left, give Norvell Coach of the Year and the Noles should hang a banner and go completely Stone Cold on the committee...but I can't see a path.  UGA: 38--FSU: 10
Hoying: When the New Year's Six lineups were announced, I thought the Fiesta Bowl was an easy pick for biggest laugher among what should otherwise be a pretty competitive series of games. I was wrong. Florida State took one look at the 2017 UCF script for claiming a piece of a national title over a 1-loss Playoff champion and said "nah, we're good." Obviously their star starting QB, Jordan Travis, is out of pocket for this game, but so is his backup. And his backup's backup's backup (not QB3, though, thank heavens). And the top 3 running backs. And the top 2 wide receivers. Look, back when the wheels were starting to fall off of the 90's juggernaut Noles, they had to play in a BCS bowl without their top two QBs. And they actually led for a hot second before Fabian Walker threw a pick-six and FSU decided to go with Anquan Boldin, yes, that Anquan Boldin, as QB going forward. That was against, uh, Georgia. This time, I wouldn't be surprised if FSU doesn't score a point on offense, and with a handful of defensive starters out as well, any non-Sickos might just want to skip this one. UGA: 24--FSU: 0

Schweinfurth: I'm not sure which team wants to be in this game less. Georgia was on top of the world and came crashing down to Bama. Florida State got screwed by the committee, is playing their 3^rd (4^th?) string QB and the entire team bailed. That FSU defense was nasty with everyone playing, but now the whole team is a giant middle finger to the committee. This is a laugher that everyone turns off after the first score. UGA: 38—FSU: 7
Seeberg:  We all know the Seminoles are out over half their starters for this one.  To be fair, UGA was the likely pick even before FSU began its war of attrition against itself.  I feel bad for Chief, even he couldn't muster the courage for a close scoreline, much less a colossal upset.  Neither can I.  Dawgs roll.  UGA: 31--FSU: 3

MONDAY, JANUARY 1

Fiesta Bowl: Liberty Flames vs. Oregon Ducks

Draper: This is the greatest season in the history of Liberty since Cornwallis surrendered in 1781 at Yorktown.  Group of 5 teams traditionally do very well in these big games in recent years due to the 'this is a major accomplishment for us' vs. 'what a failure missing the playoffs'.  Oregon was a game from the playoffs so the consolation, quite frankly, sucks. Liberty may be undefeated, but their best win is....Western Kentucky? Bowling Green? wooof. Boise State over Arizona, Houston over FSU, UCF over Auburn, Tulane over Ole Miss; but this Liberty team doesn't have a Jay Ajayi, Ed Oliver, or Tajae Spears on the roster.  No need to overthink this.  There may be opt-out for the Ducks, but I just don't care.  Liberty-Bibberty: 13--Oregon: 38

Hoying: Don't let the laugher above distract you from the fact that this has no business being a New Year's Six matchup. Sentimental sympathetic squishes, still heartbroken over Boise State not getting a shot at the BCS title in 2006 and 2009, and UCF not getting their shot at the Playoff in 2017, have ensured that at least one team from the Group of 5 will be shoved into the new 12-team abomination from next season forward. This decision will make even less sense after the Big Ten and SEC finish vacuuming up every remaining team of value nationwide and the remaining former power conferences desperately backfill with whatever teams can manage to complete a forward pass. And it all starts this season, as the Playoff Committee had to find somebody from the Group of 5 to match the dozen minus one deserving teams otherwise in the field, and they settled on...Liberty. An undefeated team that played literally the weakest schedule in all of Division I-A, including zero Power 5 teams. At least they won a championship of the weakest conference, Conference USA, that looked at this time last year like it wouldn't survive the last round of realignment. Oh, they can run the ball, racking up more yards on the ground than even the service academies. And yes, Oregon did have some trouble containing Washington's Dillon Johnson in both of the Ducks' losses this year. But this isn't last year's Tulane that caught USC napping. That Tulane navigated an AAC that still had a Fickell-coached Cincinnati in it, and scored a win over Kansas State out of conference. This game is a travesty, something befitting the first round of the NCAA tournament with a 2 seed Oregon pitted against a 15 seed Liberty. Enjoy seeing this in the Playoff next year, at least before the Big Ten and SEC scrap it and come up with something better. Lib: 17--Ore: 38

Schweinfurth: This one shouldn’t be close, honestly. The committee had to throw a G6 team in and Liberty got tapped. Oregon was very good all year, they just couldn’t beat the Huskies. BoNix goes out with another win and poor Liberty gets smacked.  Liberty: 14—Ore: 42
Seeberg: So, is Oregon playing Washington?  No.  Well then, pretty easy pick here!  Let's be honest, letting a group of 5 squad into the NY6 each year is well-intentioned, and occasionally deserved.  Some years, however, that team is better left eating the remnants of a massive Pop Tart.  This year is decidedly the latter of those two aforementioned options.  Even a sleepwalking Ducks team will roll here.  Lib: 17--Ore: 41

Rose Bowl: Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Michigan Wolverines

Draper: Bama was ruled out of the playoffs in September after a loss to the Longhorns at home AND a lackluster win over the (non-1997) Bulls, but like Thanos, they are inevitable.  Jalen Milroe is one of the great yo-yo players of all time.  He'll bounce from 'what were you thinking' to 'I can't believe he made that play'.  Let's not forget that this team nearly (should have) lost to a bad Auburn team, but rebounded to defeat the 2 time champs.  In terms of raw talent, the Tide are leaps and bounds ahead, but the Wolverines have veteran leadership and a unity of purpose.  They know what they are as a team: control the clock, run the ball, play good defense.  The lack of wide receiver talent is a problem for the maize and blue, but the tight ends are the key.  The loss of Zinter will be a problem vs. the monsters on the Tide line.  I expect the Wolverine defense to make a few plays and turn Milroe over, but even with a good game by McCarthy, the running game won't have enough success.  It will come down to Milroe's rushing ability to make the plays needed.  Eleven warriors, Ramzy said it best: "Conference pride is a disease even when Michigan isn't involved.  This year's CFP is an SEC-B1G invitational, which turns pulling for a conference into a mild phlegmy cold.  Washington first, Texas or Alabama next, Michigan under no circumstances.  As Jason said to his grandfather Hermes in The Argonautica - f**k those guys forever." Ala: 30--UM: 20

Hoying: Folks, the Tide have done it. They've proved me wrong again and again and again all the way to the semifinals of the national championship. And their reward is to face the best Michigan team since the dawn of the BCS era. You've seen Michigan play; they're solid in every phase of the game and have been #1 in most advanced stats rankings for the bulk of the season. But, and this is a big but, how much of that can be attributed to the matter of indeterminate shadiness? Ever since the scandal broke, something has looked...off...with the Wolverine pass game. RIP another September Heisman for a Michigan QB. Now, granted, Michigan has faced the best three defenses they've seen all season during that span, but the only one McCarthy was able to find any room against was the Buckeyes, and even that hinged on a tight-window TD that could easily have been overturned as a brilliant strip by Denzel Burke. And the news doesn't get any better, as it's possible that Alabama's defense will be the best the Wolverines have faced all season. After Georgia woke up from their early season nap (and the two quarters they took off against Georgia Tech), they looked like the team to challenge Michigan for the national title until they ran into the Bama brick wall. Ole Miss, LSU, these high-powered teams were stymied by the Tide's relentless boa constrictor suffocation. For a while, this was looking like a more classic pre-Tua Nick Saban Alabama, with a world class defense and a mere competent QB. Then Jalen Milroe finally arrived and arguably outplayed the Heisman winner down the stretch, providing a deadly dual-threat attack that has historically been the bane of any Harbaugh coached Michigan team. Marvin Harrison was a problem for the UM D, and Jermaine Burton is going to further their nightmares in this one. For the third straight year, Michigan flames out early in the Playoff, and the dark ages come again this offseason to Ann Arbor. Ala: 27--UM: 20

Schweinfurth: JJ McCarthy has one passing TD in his last 6 games…I wonder what changed? Honestly, I feel like Michigan is here because Ryan Day’s butt puckered again. But that’s a different discussion. Bama’s defense is the real deal and UM had trouble with the Bucks D. Milroe will give Harbaugh and Co nightmares with his mobility. Bama wins because cheaters never prosper. Bama: 35—UM: 16
Seeberg: As I look at this game, there is an absolutely hilarious gut feeling that, if anybody had said it to you in September you would have laughed them out of the room:  I trust Bama's QB more than UM's.  Whether it's the lack of advanced knowledge or facing better defenses or a combination thereof, it's clear that the maize and blue staff have minimal-to-no faith in their signal caller.  And Bama will absolutely eat your lunch if you're a one-dimensional offense.  I do think it will be a largely competitive game, but I just don't see a scenario where Milroe is completely held in check, and I just don't see a scenario where UM can get to 25 points barring a defensive score.  Hope Harbaugh enjoys his last view of the Pasadena sunset as his alma mater's head coach before he lives in socal permanently as coach of the Chargers.  Ala: 27--UM: 19

Sugar Bowl: Texas Longhorns vs. Washington Huskies

Draper: This is an extremely tough game to pick.  Washington seemed to continue to win close games, but they do keep winning.  It seems that the Huskies are stumbling through the latter half of the schedule, but it was a murderer's row: Oregon, USC (yeah, they are talented), Oregon State, Arizona, Wazzu (kinda), and Oregon again....yet they kept winning.  Texas has also limped through the season after losing to OU, but they kept winning, albeit against lesser competition.  I think this comes down to Ewers/Mitchell vs. Penix/Odunze.  I believe the best player on either team is Rome Odunze in purple and gold and he'll make the play (or 2, or 3) under the veteran leadership of Penix (who has had time to heal up).  I don't think Ewers is up to the biggest stage yet.  If UW can turn the Horns over a bit, I think the Pac12 gets their first (and likely last) playoff victory. This is a heart pick, but I stand by it.  UT: 30--UW: 34
Hoying: Washington Huskies 52, USC Trojans 42, November 4, 2023. That was the only time in the Washington's last 9 games that they managed to score a double-digit victory over an opponent. Granted, there were two wins over Oregon included as part of that seemingly unimpressive winning streak. But, as I said in my Pac-12 Championship Game preview, there's a good chance that nobody in the Pac-12 is very good this year. All of the seemingly marquee out-of-conference wins have crumbled into dust. Washington blowing out Michigan State in East Lansing helped put them on the map this season, but now we know what that's worth. Texas has taken off a few games as well (TCU? Houston??) to go with their actual loss to Oklahoma, but the overall resume stands strong, especially the only win by one Playoff team over another this season. Washington has been living on borrowed time for too long. They proved the haters (guilty) wrong against Oregon, but for the first time since the days of Colt McCoy, Texas. Is. Back. UT: 34--UW: 27

Schweinfurth: There is always one game in the playoff that is a decent watch. This one should be it. Between a healthy Quinn Ewers and Michal Penix, I expect lots of points. Washington has shown they are the more tested and complete team to this point. Huskies move on. UT: 35—Wash: 42
Seeberg: I expect this one to be the more entertaining and well-played semifinal.  Texas is back(ish) and in the playoff against, quite frankly, the guy who I thought should have won the Heisman, former Indiana QB Michael Penix (still funny to say that.  He was the HOOSIERS QUARTERBACK HOLY HELL).  The Huskies, to put it plainly, are just the offensive-minded version of the 2002 Buckeyes.  They do just enough on defense to keep it close and Penix and his legit WRs outscore the opponents.  I picked against the Huskies multiple times down the stretch, convinced the clock would proverbially strike midnight, but it never did.  I've learned my lesson.  UDub wins a classic.  UT: 34--UW: 38

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 29

Cotton Bowl: Missouri Tigers vs. THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: There have been some amazing swings in the spread in this game.  Bucks open as a favorite, it gets bet the other way after the whole world assumes the Buckeyes will all opt out a la FSU.  Then, (almost) all key players commit to play for the scarlet and gray (back to OSU) before the shocking departure of McCord to Syracuse?  (????).  Regardless, the return of the Bucks and the seeming unification of the team behind Devin Brown have given me far more confidence that this is a mismatch.  Missouri has exceeded all expectations this year, but with a healthy Buckeye defense coming in with motivation (seemingly), I don't see Cody Schrader keeping his rushing prowess against a stout Silver Bullet defense.  I'm not sure Brown is the answer and McCord was very good this year (certainly no Stroud, but also not a Bauserman).  It's looking like Marv may have already played his last game (please no....), but the talent on the Buckeye offense and defense far exceeds that of the Tigers.  Mizzou just doesn't have the horses.  Bucks tie a bow on the end of another season that just didn't hit the expectations.  Tough when you need a title every year, but falling just short once again leaves a sour taste. (Sounds like JTT and Marv should come back for another shot....right?....RIGHT?!?!?! Mizzou: 17--OSU: 30
Hoying: Missouri has been a nice story this season, and I haven't gotten to see as much of it as I would have liked. I've caught the big moments like nailing a 61 yard field goal to sink Kansas State or putting in a scare between the hedges against Georgia. But they haven't really moved the needle on a week-to-week basis, to the point where one could be forgiven for not realizing that Brady Cook was quietly putting together one of the best seasons by any QB this year, or that Cody Schrader had followed up a tepid first half of the season on the ground by blasting through his last few games like a man on fire. The Tigers aren't quite as deep at the non-skill positions to make this a "talent-equated game", as our head coach likes to say, but there's no getting over the glaring question mark behind center on the other side of the field. Kyle McCord was unfairly judged this year and, like Brady Cook, truly was one of the top QBs in the country. But Devin Brown, as much as the team really seems to love him and rally around him, hasn't impressed during the few chances he's had to shine this season. The mobility we were promised hasn't really made an appearance outside of a couple of goal line packages against Purdue, and his passing has been wildly inconsistent. It won't help matters that Julian Fleming has left for greener pastures, and it doesn't look like Marv will suit up either. But the good news is that pretty much the entire rest of the team will still be playing, meaning Missouri will still be facing one of the top defenses in the country and the Buckeyes should have solid line play on both sides of the ball (at least as solid as they've looked this year). That should be just enough to deliver a Buckeye victory. If it doesn't happen, don't hang your head, the Buckeyes have never won a national championship the year after a bowl victory...Mizz: 27--OSU: 31

Schweinfurth: I don’t know about anyone else, but I just can’t get excited for this one. Mizzou is a mid level SEC team and has played will this year. Honestly, I don’t know anything else about them. I’ve mostly paid no attention to the comings and goings of the Bucks either, other than to know McCord saw himself out and Marv is going pro. Devin Brown is fine I guess, but I think Day is going to have to lean on the run game quite a bit. The passing game may get dumbed down to (hello mesh patterns) to help Brown read the defense better. The Bucks should win this, but the upheaval may be a distraction. It’s close, but the Bucks go out on a winning note. Mizzou: 17—OSU: 24
Seeberg:  CAN SOMEONE JUST SAY IF THEY ARE OR AREN'T COMING BACK??!?!??!?  As Gene Wilder expertly put it "the suspense is terrible...I hope it'll last."  Regardless, just about everyone not named Marv or McCord is playing in this one.  I think these weeks of practice have finally crystallized what went on all spring and summer with the QB battle.  McCord was likely steadier, but there were days when Brown outplayed him...and Devin seems to be almost universally more liked as a leader.  McCord's leadership was nonexistent in Ann Arbor, punctuated by dear old daddy demanding more cash and a starting spot next year before leaving for the greener pastures of Syracuse and Jim Boeheim's 2-3 zone.  Wait, what's that?  This is football???  Yikes.  Well, good luck to that dude anyway.  Back to the game at hand.  Mizzou isn't as talented but might honestly be better coached and they sport a legit DUDE at RB in Cody Schrader.  Hartline can earn his money (as if he doesn't already) by having the next wave of WRs step up for Marv and the departed (and criminally underrated) Julian Fleming.  I expect- and hope for- a healthy dose of Henderson- then again, he and Hayden are the only scholarship RBs left!  College football in 2023, ladies and gentlemen.  Assuming the WRs are as advertised, and we can escape with only minor snafus in the special teams (Parker Fleming still having a job may be the most shocking part of the offseason thus far honestly), the Bucks should end the season with a competitive, well-earned W against a member of the other power 2 conference.  Savor it, Buckeye Nation, it's just the spring game between now and August 31st.  MIZZ: 20--OSU: 26

Week 14: The Walking Dead

Standings:

1.) Draper 49-14 (1-11 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 48-15 (2-10 upset)
3.) Hoying 44-19 (2-10 upset)
4.) Seeberg 43-20 (4-8 upset)

Twilight of the 4-team Playoff decade is upon us, and soon night will fall. For the 10^th straight year, the Buckeyes enter Championship Week anxiously awaiting a few games to break their way (except you, 2019, we love you). Last year provided some atonement for getting jobbed in 2017 and 2018; can lightning strike twice? The path is a little rockier than in years past, with Texas, Alabama, and Florida State needing to be cast aside, but hope endures, at least until Saturday morning in Jerry World.

FRIDAY

Pac-12: Oregon Ducks vs. Washington Huskies

Draper: I'll be honest, I've been thinking about going off book and picking Washington all week.  Oregon is expecting to just steamroll the Huskies, but Rome Odunze and Michael Penix have a connection.  However, BoNix and company have been destroying everyone in their path after the somewhat fluky loss in Seattle.  I expect this to be closer than everyone thinks, but the mo wears green and yellow.  The Huskies have been '02 Buckeyes, white-knuckling every week.  They can't keep getting away with it.  Ducks to the playoff.  UW: 24--Ore: 27
Hoying: What if…neither of these teams is actually that good? Washington beat Boise State (uncharacteristic 7-5) and Michigan State (horrible) out of conference, and Oregon beat 6-6 Texas Tech by 8 points. The same Texas Tech that got obliterated by 50 by Texas just one week ago. Come to think of it, did *any* Pac-12 team have a meaningful non-conference win this year? Regardless, this one should be entertaining as the top two passing offenses (but not the top two QBs, we see you, Jayden Daniels) face off (again). Washington has looked off ever since dispatching the Ducks midseason. You say they were playing ranked teams weak in and week out; I say those teams all finished 8-4 or 7-5 (at best). The eye test has been much friendlier to the Ducks. I haven’t learned my lesson from last time; I thought Oregon was the better team before it was cool, and now that the game’s away from Seattle, Oregon should be able to avoid the 4^th-down voodoo that jinxed them back in October. Ducks hunt. UW: 24—Ore: 38
Schweinfurth: One of these teams is trending up, the other has been in a malaise for November. Not sure it's competition level or QB play, but Washington has looked very beatable lately. I don't see a blowout here (which means the winner will win by 20). This will come down to which team makes the big mistake. Penix has been good, not great. BoNix has been Bo Nix. That will be the difference. UW: 28--Ore: 31

Seeberg: We all know the adage "it's tough to beat a good team twice".  Well UW is definitely a good team; however, they're also fortunate.  In fact, they're number one in a luck index this season.  Last season's winner?  TCU.  We saw what happened to them against Georgia.  This also could be for the Heisman.  Oregon darn near won on the road earlier, and have improved much more than their opponent.  Ducks make the first and last CFP field.  UW: 24--Ore: 34

SATURDAY

Big 12: Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Texas Longhorns

Draper: While I'd love to support the Pokes, I just don't see it. The Pokes have been incredibly confusing all year.  Lose to South Alabama, beat Oklahoma.  Go down big against garbage yet rise from the ashes with Ollie Gordon inexplicably getting them back into it.  It's Texas against a weird team...anything could happen...but I have a feeling we may need to say the line...Texas is <sigh> back.... OkSt: 17--UT: 30
Hoying: What is this Oklahoma State team? First they knock Oklahoma out of the Big 12 Championship Game to set up a nice cushy November against three of the Big 12’s awful 2023 expansion teams. And then they get blown out by UCF, spot Houston a 14 point 2^nd-quarter lead, and fall behind BYU 24-6 at half before pulling out a spectacular overtime comeback. The Cowboys have only scored 34 more total points than their opponents over the whole season. The team on the other sideline has had their share of clunkers as well but are a last-minute Oklahoma drive from being undefeated with a double digit road win against Alabama. And that's Alabama Alabama, not South Alabama, who manhandled the Pokes back in September to the tune of 33-7. Texas has been its own worst enemy since Colt McCoy left town, but the gap between these two is too deep to fall into. The dominoes fall one short for the Buckeyes this year. OkSt: 20—UT: 31
Schweinfurth: OSU helping out tOSU would be very nice. I really don't see this happening. Texas just comes off as the more well rounded team here. OkSt. 17--UT: 35

Seeberg: This game absolutely must be won by the plains OSU for the Buckeyes to have a shot.  Sadly, the Cowboys needed OT just to squeak by BYU last week.  The Longhorns have been pretty workman-like most of the season, even with a backup QB for a stretch of the season.  They fired on all cylinders last week, however, and I expect more of the same.  Longhorns big.  OkSt: 20--UT: 38

SEC: Georgia Bulldogs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

Draper: Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised by any outcome.  UGA has been workmanlike all year, but I've never been wowed.  Perhaps it's because they have played no one that I care to watch.  Bama seems to be coming on strong, but they BARELY beat a bad Auburn team last week.  Jalen Milroe is the X-factor running the ball as the Dawgs have a little trouble stopping the QB.  While Bama is very inconsistent at times, they are intensely talented...but UGA is also insanely talented...and consistent.  UGA continues the quest for a threepeat.  Bama: 20--UGA: 30
Hoying: For the second week in a row, we get to see if a team with elite talent that looked rocky early this season but has been steadily improving can take down the team that’s been at the top of their game all year. This season, I have picked Alabama to lose to (i) Ole Miss, (ii) Texas A&M, and (iii) LSU. Guess how many times I’ve been right. I should have picked them to lose last week, as somehow they managed to turn a horrible performance by Auburn QB Peyton Thorne (Go Green) into a certain Tiger win before the Auburn defense practically delivered the Foy-ODK Trophy to the Tide on their last play. Yes, we saw this exact same script in 2021, and it continued with an Alabama SEC Championship over the Dawgs, but that was 2021 Alabama, with Heisman winner Bryce Young at QB. Sure, Georgia doesn’t appear to be quite as good as their last two National Champ iterations but they haven’t taken as big a step back as Alabama. Get used to seeing both of these teams in the Playoff every year for the foreseeable future, just not this year. UGA: 27—Bama: 24
Schweinfurth: Bama has found something in Milroe, but it feels as if the torch has been passed the Georgia. Here's to another number 1 seed Bulldogs. UGA: 35--Bama: 21

Seeberg: Note the extreme lack of surprise at this matchup.  A Georgia fan constructed a pretty reasonable Kirby Smart-Ryan Day comparison that I read recently.  Hoping Day breaks through in a similar fashion sooner rather than later- though Kirby doesn't have an ascendant archrival to deal with.  In any case, Bama may have looked past the Iron Bowl to this one and it should have cost them.  I still think UGA is more complete, however, and should make it a 2-score win late.  Bama: 24--UGA: 33

ACC: Louisville Cardinals vs. Florida State Seminoles

Draper: Another toss-up game.  While I don't see a Travis-less FSU team competing in the playoffs against more talented teams, they can absolutely beat the Cardinals.  Louisville had the highest of highs against the Irish, but losing to the Wildcats in a rivalry game makes no sense.  While FSU doesn't have the QB to compete at the top level, their top to bottom talent is easily better than Louisville's A-team.  The Noles got the yips out in the first half against the Gators while Rodemaker was figuring it out. Johnny Wilson, Keon Coleman, and Trey Benson get it done on offense while Jared Verse wreaks havoc on defense.  Noles head to the playoff.  UL: 17--FSU: 27
Hoying: Every year in the Playoff it seems like there’s one team that has no business being there, not because they didn’t take care of business in the regular season, but just because they aren’t very good. But this season, I worry that there might be two (hello, 2018). As I said before, I don’t have any faith in the Pac-12 champion, but Florida State has been similarly unimpressive this season. Beating LSU in the opener was a terrific opening act, but I’m afraid the Noles peaked too early, and losing Jordan Travis is a death blow to a team that has already skated by far too many mediocre opponents. The Cardinals don’t have the high highs of FSU when they’re clicking, but they’re generally pretty steady when they’re not taking off the second half against Pitt (hey, it worked against Indiana). I just don’t see Rowengartner making enough plays to win this one for Florida State. He’s got good support around him on both sides of the ball, but Travis has been too big a part of the Seminoles’ big wins this year. The Noles make the Committee’s job an easy one this year. Good luck splitting hairs between the #11 and #12 team next year (don’t forget the joker G5 team to round out the #12 seed). UL: 20—FSU: 17
Schweinfurth: Florida State is depleted. They might be calling up Draper to play QB at this point. Louisville has looked excellent under Brahm this year. The 'Noles' defense is enough to keep it close, but the Cardinals are setting up an Orange Bowl date with the Bucks. UL: 24--FSU: 21

Seeberg: From the completely predictable to the...Louisville Cardinals?  Thankfully they are no longer a threat to make the playoff after their in-state loss last week.  Are they better than FSU with a backup under center (or, let's face it, in the shotgun these days)?  Honestly it's probably a coin flip.  Any team that can lose to Pitt, however, shouldn't beat this Seminole team.  You're welcome, Chief- at least your two teams won't play in the playoffs a la Rieman's OSU/Xavier basketball matchup in 2007 right?  UL: 20--FSU: 27

Big Ten: Michigan Wolverines vs. Iowa Hawkeyes

Draper: I just don't care.  As long as they lose, in the playoffs, the season isn't a complete disaster.  On the other hand, Brian Ferentz has the chance to do the funniest thing possible (but he won't). Analysis: Michigan is way better.  UM: 38-Iowa: 9
Hoying: I have good news and bad news. First, the bad news. Michigan is going to gouge out Iowa’s Hawkeyes and leave them in bloody chunks on the Lucas Oil field. Like what Penn State did to them, except with a quarterback who can throw under pressure (as you likely remember from last week). The over/under for points scored by Iowa currently sits at ONE-HALF OF A POINT for each half, and that's not going to get the job done as the Wolverines have yet to be shut out in the Harbaugh era. The good news is that, 5 years from now, this will go down as either an Iowa championship or a vacant title. The Michigan commentariat, which have uniformly been the most unrepentantly insufferable creeps this side of political punditry, seem to think that last week’s Game proves that there was nothing to the cheating scandal, and the national media have been only too happy to excuse themselves and move on to Michigan’s future fortunes this postseason. But I don’t think that going from a better Ohio State team losing at home by multiple scores to a worse Michigan team last year, to a worse Ohio State team losing on the road on a last-minute interception to a better Michigan team this year, proves what the True Blue Kool-Aid Men think it does. In case anyone has forgotten, the Wolverines fired Connor Stalions and an assistant coach this past month, and their Cheater-in-Chief has been watching the last three contests from outside the stadium walls. Seeing his smug mug back on the sidelines in Indianapolis will be more than I can bear this Saturday night, but it won’t be for long. Enjoy your soon-to-be smoking crater. UM: 31—Iowa: 0
Schweinfurth: I am living in hell. Michigan's coaching staff are still cheaters. Enough said. scUM: 35--Iowa: 0

Seeberg: Woof.  I refuse to offer any real commentary here.  The only amusing part of this contest is that Iowa's defense will outscore Iowa's offense.  Ugh.  UM: 27--Iowa: 2

Week 13: Everybody Wants to Rule the World

Standings:

1.) Draper 48-13 (1-10 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 47-14 (1-10 upset)
3.) Hoying 43-18 (2-9 upset)
4.) Seeberg 42-19 (3-8 upset)

The rage was already scarlet-hot after a shot at revenge went horribly awry. The revelation that the field had been tilted for those two losing efforts by the platonic ideal of an Ann Arbor Anthropos and his vast network of spies has done little to abate the wrath of the Scarlet and Gray. The villains, incapable of self-reflection or repentance, have circled the wagons and defied everybody to exact whatever retribution their respective eleven warriors can deliver. A dastardly fate awaits the Cheat Weasels this Saturday for that. There isn’t a Buckeye in the State of Ohio who wouldn’t like to go out and scalp those Wolverines right now. Go Bucks. Beat Blue.

FRIDAY

Oregon State Beavers @ Oregon Ducks

Draper: No reason to overthink this.  The Ducks have been destroying everyone and everything in their path outside of a sorta fluky loss in Seattle.  Oregon State has been...fine? They've beaten absolutely no one of note to their nice record, but here we are in the Civil War nonetheless.  I fear that BoNix could lock up the top trophy in this spot by putting up big stats against a pretty good defense.  The Beavs have been a feelgood story, but the carriage will be turned into a gourd after the Autzen Zoo ends all hope of an upset.  Quack.  OreSt: 16--Ore: 35
Hoying: It’s a curiosity of this year’s Rivalry Week that while the Civil War is one of the only two ranked contests across the nation, and thus, ostensibly the battle of second highest quality, the spread in this one is bigger than such great-vs.-garbage showdowns as the Iron Bowl or the Territorial Cup. The Beavers have been a great farewell tale for the exploding Pac-12, tenaciously hanging with Washington last week in a desperate bid to keep the conference title in the hands of the Pac-faithful. But the future out west is B1G, as we’ll likely see in next week’s green vs. purple rerun. I think the Ducks have been a bit overrated this season; the only school in the top 4 of the Pac-12 they’ve played is Washington (Oregon lost), and their Power 5 nonconference opponent was the barely bowl eligible Texas Tech Red Raiders. But I don’t think last week’s valiant effort in Corvallis was the Beavers sharpening the sword for a killing blow this week. I expect it was rather one last bender to be followed up by a dreadful hangover. OreSt:17—Ore: 31
Schweinfurth: The Beavers have been a great story. Put off by the rest of conference restructuring, they have put on a great showing this year. The Ducks feel like a powerhouse though. BoNix still resides in the Duck backfield and that could be the difference. We get a week closer to a Husky/Duck redo. OreSt: 24--Ore: 31

Seeberg: Everything was set for the Beavers to take down the Huskies last week:  Poor weather, friendly confines, they were even favored!  But, alas, Penix and Co. did just enough to win yet again.  Now the west coast OSU has to travel to their in-state archrival.  To their credit, these two will continue to play this one annually (looking at you, Sooners and Cowboys), so thankfully this won't be the last iteration.  This one, however, is in Autzen and it's a bad recipe for the visiting squad.  The Ducks are hungry for another shot at UW, but the rivalry forces their full focus.  Not good for the opponent.  Nix has another banner day as the Ducks paddle away late.  Orest: 20--Ore: 34

SATURDAY

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Those Cheaters Up North

Draper: When aligning the position groups, there's not a lot of separation between the squads.  I'd give the Wolverines a slight edge at QB and Oline and OSU with slight edges at the other positions (outside of the WR advantage). The biggest difference is the route these guys took to this contest.  The win over the Irish is a nice feather in the Buckeyes cap that shows they can play on the road in a hostile locale, while TTUN crushed the garbage and struggled against those with a pulse (and no Stalions).  The explosive return of Trey to the rushing attack is huge opening up the passing lanes.  I think the keys are Egbuka and Stover as Harrison will be tripled (and can still do work).  OSU has only given up 1 explosive this year which is about 1203984 fewer than last year.  The defense should shut the door on the passing attack.  If the Buckeyes slow the rushing attack and stay on schedule, the lack of prescience on the blue sideline (where did that go?) proves the difference.  The Terps nearly got it done, but the Bucks seal the deal in the last rivalry of consequence after the penalties are levied.  Ohio Against the World! OSU: 24--TTUN: 20
Hoying: Run the ball, beat your rival. It’s been an ironclad, unbreakable law every year after the Buckeyes Bellisari’d away a good day on the ground by Derek, Jonathan, and, well, Steve Bellisari way back in 2000. Last year I was sure the streak would end, and truth be told, but for two late run blitz whiffs against Donovan Edwards, I would have been proven right in horrifying fashion. But as I said in the Penn State preview, The Don is really having difficulties this year. Yes, he had a nice TD run against Penn State, but that’s the single swing for the fences he’s had this year, and it went for all of 22 yards. And the Wolverine faithful continue to await in vain the return of 2022 Blake. On the other hand, Tre has been running like an RB possessed since returning after the cheap shot he suffered in South Bend, evoking the #1 recruit and superstar frosh TreVeyon Henderson we were all enjoying back in 2021. I could perhaps be forgiven (and I do beg forgiveness) for thinking he was washed after he toughed out virtually all of a disappointing 2022 on a busted foot. But this year, you can’t bottle Tre up for the full 60. Even the Fighting Irish were only near-perfect for 59, and then he was gone to put the Buckeyes up 10-0. A lot of ink is being spilled this week about whether JJ or Kyle is going to end up on top of the battle of the Irish quarterbacks, and their play is going to be essential to not giving this one away. Sacks count against rushing totals in college, after all, and turnovers constrain offensive opportunities. But I stood in the freezing drizzle on the Ann Arbor sidelines (no sign of Connor Stalions) in 2007 watching Touchdown Todd and busted Chad Henne find their receivers on 38% of their throws for all of 138 yards in the aggregate, while Beanie Wells nearly doubled that total alone, finding pay dirt on goal line and 62-yard runs. This week it’s all about the big sets and deep lines up north vs. whatever the twin wizards of Day and Knowles can conjure to get the biggest advantages both ways across the field. Swirl in a little Chip for a change of pace and add Professor X’s propensity to break a big gain when the pressure’s tightest, and there’s a path to victory in the land of shadow. Everything since the clock hit zeroes last year (hell, everything since Edwards ripped off his first big run) has been calculated to deliver the precise blow at the precise hour: high noon on Thanksgiving Saturday. Let’s see if it connects. OSU: 24—TCUN: 17
Schweinfurth: Where do I begin here. Cheaters and the Worst? I have tried to be polite to this point, but now? Let's do the thing. Ryan Day has been slowly building the Death Start this year. He's held out top players on both sides of the ball to ensure a healthy squad going up north. The injury list is short, which we couldn't say last year. A win on Saturday, and I'll call the defense the Silver Bullets again. Yes, they have played that well to this point. Treveyon Henderson is a different level and he is healthy. Now to the elephant. The Wolverines don't have their pre-scouting cheating ass head coach on the sideline and don't know what is going to be run. That's huge. I look at the last two years in a different light with the info we have now. JJ doesn't look right without knowing what the defense is in and without the sideline d-bag in his corner. He also doesn't look as good when faced with a defense that has a pulse. I can write a book on this, but there is only one thing that I care about now. Beat Blue. Get revenge. Put these cheating idiots back in their place. Bucks win. OSU: 35--TTUN: 17

Seeberg:  It is FINALLY here. I do not enjoy hyperbole and avoid it whenever possible.  This, however, is likely the highest charged version of this rivalry that has ever occurred.  We all know the litany of accusations, and firings, and suspensions, etc. etc.  Did the sign-stealing cost CJ a trophy in NYC?  We will, sadly, never know.  Did the cheaters and best finally end their woefulness against the scarlet and gray?  Yes, but to what degree did the sign-stealing contribute?  92% of FBS head coaches surveyed said that their advantage was likely worth at least ten points per contest.  But enough of the past.  I've seen a lot of fans and talking heads alike calling for "Georgia Ryan Day" on Saturday.  One issue:  Georgia Ryan Day had, as we've seen thus far in the NFL, a possible generational talent at QB.  Kyle is good, but Kyle is not that.  Kyle is Krenzel-ish.  A bit stronger, not quite as elusive, but with an excellent, level-headed poise.  Anybody recall what Krenzel did his first year as a starter?  Yeah, pretty decent.  The 2023 Buckeyes have an excellent defense.  Turnovers aren't as frequent as I'd like, but opponents' points don't arrive often either.  Believe it or not, when the D is on the field, they'll be facing a QB who was the odds-on favorite to win college football's highest award, but when noon hits Saturday, it will have been 33 days since JJ threw a touchdown.  Wonder what that coincides with?  Strange huh?  On the flipside, 2021 Treveyon Henderson has returned and he has single-handedly reinvigorated the Buckeye offense.  Ohio State is better balanced- I flat-out don't think JJ can sling it against the secondary- nor can their O-line protect the passer.  We saw that plain as day against the Nittany Lions.  Speaking of Penn State, Day literally held out two all-conference players just to keep everyone as healthy as possible for TTUN.  Eichenberg didn't play on senior day.  The focus is undeniable, the 2023 Buckeyes want this one, need this one, and will stop at nothing to get this one.  Go Bucks.  OSU: 27--TTUN: 17

Upset Special
Draper: Arkansas over Tigers
Hoying: Texas Aggies over LSU
Schweinfurth: Iowa State over Kansas State
Seeberg: Auburn over Roll Tide (just kidding!)  Kentucky over Louisville

Week 12: I See You Shiver with Antici-

Standings:

1.) Draper 43-13 (1-10 upset)
1.) Schweinfurth 43-13 (1-10 upset)
3.) Seeberg 39-17 (3-8 upset)
3.) Hoying 39-17 (2-9 upset)

The Buckeyes' romp through the Little 12 comes to a close (for the regular season at least). Other national title contenders have cupcakes of their own (looking at you, Alabama and Florida State) while a couple have the audacity to play live ranked opponents before settling in for Rivalry Week. Last week was the first time this season no undefeated team lost. Can it happen again?

Georgia Bulldogs @ Tennessee Volunteers

Draper: There's no reason to expect lightning to strike in Knoxville in back to back seasons.  Joe Milton isn't the one to get this done.  UGA should be able to sleepwalk to another win.  The only potential for something weird is that UGA has been feasting at home.  Carson Beck COULD be rattled, but I don't think it matters.  UGA: 30--UT:17
Hoying: I have bad (or maybe good) news for you: it appears that for the second year in a row, the only threat to another Georgia national championship is Ohio State. Not Alabama, Milroe is still a work in progress. Not Michigan, that program is crumbling into dust at an alarmingly accelerating rate and might not even exist by the time the Playoff rolls around. And certainly not Tennessee, who are fresh off getting blasted by Missouri the same week Georgia obliterated Ole Miss. Carson Beck has very quietly put together an elite-level season at QB that's only getting better as the season progresses. And the Vols just keep wasting drive after drive. This was the game that ruined Tennessee's resurgent feel-good season last year, and it'll put the Vols out of their misery this time. UGA: 31--UT: 16

Schweinfurth: I just don't think the Vols have that major upset in them this year. Milton's got a great arm, but he needs time to uncork the ball. He won't have it and Georgia is starting to get healthy. UGA: 33--UT:14

Seeberg:  Definitely not going to overthink this one.  Georgia beat Mizzou, Mizzou torched Tennessee.  Even Dolly Parton can't save the Vols this week.  UGA big.  UGA: 41--UT: 20

Washington Huskies @ Oregon State Beavers

Draper: This is the toughest game of the week to pick.  It seems like a no-brainer that the Huskies keep it rolling as the Beavers have beaten....no one of note en route to the top 11 ranking; however, UW has looked vulnerable darn near every week.  Oh yeah, and the game's in Corvallis where top teams go to die (for some reason).  The weather report certainly favors Oregon State with rain in the forecast, a strong rushing attack, and a weak Washington rush defense....but Michael Penix is still far better than Uiagalalei and the UW rushing attack feasted against the air of Alex Grinch's defense.  The Husky magic continues for another week.  I don't think the turnover chainsaw will be enough, but it will be a barn burner.  UW: 38--OSU: 37
Hoying: Speaking of Tennessee...I have this horrible sinking feeling that Washington just isn't very good. Michael Penix threw the ball around for a month, the Huskies pasted an awful Michigan State team in East Lansing, and Oregon made a few critical situational blunders, and suddenly UW was the next big thing on the college football landscape. But the Huskies haven't put together a convincing win since. Perhaps the brightest sign of hope was shutting out Utah in the second half last week and bottling up an otherwise potent Ute running game, which was  a nice reversal of the Huskies' Achilles heel run D this season. The problem for UW is that OSU West Coast has a potent running game of their own and an erstwhile Playoff team QB. Neither of these teams has a great defense, so expect to see at least as many points as we saw in last week's Utah-UW game. But Washington has been living a charmed life for far too long, and 'tis the season for them to suffer a fatal hiccup. UW: 34--OSU: 38

Schweinfurth: Corvallis is always a rough place to play. Everyone seems to think this is an upset week for Washington, and it may be. They haven't been playing great. Because of that the Huskies' focus should be on the Beavers, but next week is rivalry week. I think Penix does just enough to pull the win off, but it sure will put a scare into the Huskies. UW: 28--OSU: 24

Seeberg:  Is this the week the Huskies finally get got?  The oddsmakers certainly think so, as the west coast OSU is actually favored in this one.  The Beavers match up well with the Huskies, sporting an excellent rushing attack, they may be able to play keep away from Penix and Co.  The Huskies haven't won a game by double digits in over a month, so they're excellent in close games- but often against inferior competition.  In my estimation they've played with fire one too many times and they just might get burned before a rematch with Oregon.  Beavers reclaim the state of Oregon from the Huskies.  UW: 28--OrSt: 31

Kansas State Wildcats @ Kansas Jayhawks

Draper: While I'm not really sold on KState being that good of a team, Kansas is in a bad way right now without Jalon Daniels.  KState took Texas to the wire but couldn't close the deal, but there's still an outside (very outside) chance for the Wildcats to get to the Big 12 Championship.  Obviously, they need to win here and I think they get it done.  KSU: 30--Kansas: 17
Hoying: You may have forgotten, because the Playoff didn't reflect it, but TCU was not the Big 12 champion last year. It was Kansas State, and while TCU has fallen off a cliff this season (though they did manage to convince the world for a hot minute that Colorado was going to make some noise this year by losing to them in the season opener), the Wildcats have won a bunch of games and been competitive in each loss. Kansas has been a nice story for the second year in a row, but they also have no defense for a second year in a row. That's going to be a problem against a high-powered KSU ground game, and Kansas is also likely down to their 3rd string QB with Jalon Daniels out for the season and Jason Bean leaving early against Texas Tech last week. This isn't Ohio State; you don't get to just pull Cardale Jones off your bench and follow him to the promised land. KSU: 41--KU: 17

Schweinfurth: I can't really say I've watched much football from either Kansas team other than the Jayhawks upset over the Sooners. I actually had to look this one up because I have no clue. It appears the Wildcats have the better QB, so let's go with them here. KSU: 42--KU: 35

Seeberg:  Wow.  I'm not certain how often the sunflower state rivalry has been a ranked vs. ranked matchup, but this year it qualifies.  Kansas HC Lance Leipold will be a hot name this off season (looking at you, MSU) taking a basketball school's football program to respectability, including a win over blue blood Oklahoma with their backup QB playing.  Meanwhile Kansas State is, well Kansas State.  Beating everyone bad, losing to everyone great, splitting their games with the good.  For this season, at least, the Jayhawks qualify as "good", but the Wildcats own this in-state tussle and I don't see that changing this time around.  Wildcats pull away late.  Love sunflowers!  KSU: 34--KU: 24

Utah Utes @ Arizona Wildcats

Draper: The Pac12 games this week are surprisingly good.  Utah and Kyle Whittingham just keep doing what they're doing without a QB or any real stars.  Arizona has quietly put together a very nice season that no one is talking about.  I expect Jedd Fisch to get some hits in the coaching rumor mill next year.  I think I'm going to go a little off base and lean on the Cats in this one.  I don't have confidence that Utah can keep getting away with these surprising wins and Arizona has been fun....especially in Tuscon.  Bear Down.  Utah: 20--Zona: 23
Hoying: How good is Arizona, really? You might as well ask how good the Pac-12 is in general, as the Wildcats have beaten every conference opponent they've played except for valiant efforts in losses to USC and Washington. Then again, they lost to SEC basement Mississippi State. Utah played an SEC team, too, and beat them, in a weird game that saw Florida outgain the Utes but fail to cash in on several drives deep into Utah territory. Oregon struggled against mid Texas Tech, Washington's premier out-of-conference win was Michigan State...have we been hoodwinked into thinking the Pac-12 was good? Regardless, these teams are playing this week and good luck drawing a bead on either. Last week I wrote that Utah's passing game shouldn't make a dent in the Washington D, and then the Utes put an awful scare into the Huskies for a half behind a solid day from Bryson Barnes' arm. As stated above, that might say more about Washington than it does about Utah. Back on task, need to pick this game. A good rule of thumb in picking the mid-level Pac-12 games has been to pick the home team, and that's worked out pretty well (except for the ghastly thrashing Arizona put on Wazzu in Pullman and the faceplant USC pulled against Utah in Los Angeles). No need to overthink this one. Utah: 20--Zona: 27

Schweinfurth: Utah has really struggled on offense this year. Here's the thing though, they are in every game (other than Oregon). Their defense helps them just stick around and then they pull one off. Arizona has come out of nowhere this year to surprise everyone. I mean, a win over USC does help. This is one game I just can't see Utah losing. Utah: 27--Zona: 24

Seeberg:  As with this season's Utes, their solid defense keeps them in most games, the question usually becomes whether or not they can score enough to get the W.  Enter the surprising Arizona Wildcats, another basketball school turned respectable in football.  They have good wins (Oregon State, UCLA) but a propensity to give up lots of points (43 to USC, 31 to Colorado and UW, etc.).  Utah will get their stops, and I have an inkling they'll put up just enough points for a hard-fought win on the road.  Utah: 24--Zona: 20

Minnesota Golden Gophers @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: Just don't get hurt.  No, I don't see this as a trap game.  The Buckeyes will be focused enough with everything still in front of them, and Minnesota....sucks.  Let's just call a spade a spade.  I'd set the O/U at 1.5 Marvin TDs (and I'd take the over).  He'll be force fed the ball to keep the stats in the Heisman talk and pulled after 2 TDs and the game no longer in doubt.  This should be a Trey game for the most part as he should have a day, but look for day to limit his touches to keep him healthy.  The defense will be fine, but I would like to see a focus on stopping the run.  Our pass rush is intense, but we have a tendency to give up decent gains on the ground.  Gotta shore it all up for next week.  Get in, get the dub, get out, and turn your eyes north.  Minn: 13--OSU: 45
Hoying: Here's the difference between these two teams. Last week, Ohio State was without its sole defensive captain, Tommy Eichenberg, anchoring the middle LB spot, as well as both of its starting safeties, and the Buckeyes gave up 3 points to Michigan State on a 53 yard field goal. Last week, Minnesota was missing its starting middle LB and it got absolutely plowed over by the only team in the Big Ten West that routinely loses games to other teams in the Big Ten West. This is a team that got killed on the road by North Carolina and was throttled by the Cheat Weasels back in October, and they've only gotten worse since then. A different trajectory from the Silver Bullets and an offense that finally seems to have found its footing (as long as McCord isn't pressured too much). Everyone has the Buckeyes pegged pretty well by this point in the season, so style points aren't going to matter a great deal. And the Gophers are not winning this game. Look for another healthy peppering of long TD plays like the last time these two teams met back in 2021. Try to contain yourselves until we're up 3 scores, then you can start to look ahead to one of the most significant showdowns in Buckeye football history...Minn: 6--OSU: 45

Schweinfurth: I don't have much to say here. The Buckeye offense finally showed that the finishing touches are being put on their death star. Here's what I want. Hypertarget Marv in the first half for stat accumulation and then pull the starters like last week. Keep everyone healthy and then we start The Week. Minn: 7--OSU: 42

Seeberg:  Just nine measly days before "The Game" as I type this.  Will the Buckeyes be caught looking ahead?  Maybe.  Thankfully, it won't be enough to allow the Gophers to stay in the game for four quarters anyway.  The offense finally looked like the offense we've grown accustomed to here under Urban/Day in the first half last week, Scoring FIVE touchdowns in two quarters.  The defense, still markedly undermanned, looked dominant as well and may be getting Josh Proctor back this Saturday.  Get Marvin another 150 and 2 scores to make the Heisman race interesting, keep Treveyon happy and dear lord keep everyone healthy!  Senior day should provide enough motivation to avoid the let down game, and then we can finally use up whatever puns and jokes we have about the absolute dumpster fire that is the Wolverines.  Bucks roll.  Minn: 10--OSU: 42 

Upset Special
Draper: Iowa State over Texas
Hoying: Maryland over Michigan
Schweinfurth: Florida over Mizzou
Seeberg: Rutgers over Penn State