Week 4: The Playoff Push Begins

Standings:

1.) Draper 8-2 (1-2 upset)
2.) Seeberg 7-3 (1-2 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 7-3 (0-3 upset)
4.) Hoying 6-4 (1-2 upset)

Conference play begins in earnest across the landscape (well, not so much in the ACC), and a lot of early season 3-0 hopefuls are squaring off in the hopes of positioning themselves as early front-runners to grab one of 12 lucrative Playoff berths. September may be for pretenders, but we'll soon find out whose make believe journey will crash and burn before October even arrives.

Texas Tech Red Raiders @ Utah Utes
Draper: The Big 12 feels like a grab-bag week in and week out.  Along with Iowa State, these two teams are the frontrunners in the conference game, and this week could go a long way to deciding the Big 12 Championship Game appearance.  Texas Tech is the new hotness with that oil money being dumped in, but old stalwart Utah looks pretty good.  Devon Dampier has been solid at QB and I think he's the difference.  Rice Eccles is rocking for a Big Noon game, but the Utes QB leads the team to victory.  TTU: 24--Utah: 31
Hoying: These two teams have looked fantastic so far against a six-pack of wet paper sacks. And Big 12 conference play hasn't even started yet, wait until they get to play the teams that lost to Ohio and Army. Utah was a heavy favorite to win the first edition of the new-look Big 12 last season before heavily faceplanting down the stretch, while TTU hasn't challenged for a conference title since Michael Crabtree shocked Longhorn Nation all the way back in 2008. But the winner of this game should be in the driver's seat for the climb atop the nation's least prestigious "major" conference. The Utes stumbled out to a close halftime lead last week against Wyoming before pulling away for a comfortable win in the second half (sounds familiar), while Texas Tech has scored at least 45 straight points to open all 3 of their games so far this year (looks like that NIL war chest is paying off already). I like the Red Raiders to keep rolling on the road. TTU: 34--Utah: 28
Schweinfurth: I saw a stat that Texas Tech was one of the top defenses in the country. That's a far cry from the Mike Leach Air Raid days. Past that, I need to go with my instinct. Texas Tech wins. TTU: 30--Utah 17
Seeberg: I’m not going to act like an expert on either of these teams. What I do know, however, is that the Utes are a tough matchup at home, and though total talent may be on the side of the Red Raiders, the cohesiveness year over year at Utah is rare these days, and it will show up late in a close, entertaining win. TTU: 27–Utah: 31

Auburn Tigers @ Oklahoma Sooners
Draper: Jackson Arnold....REVENGE.  There is so much said about Auburn due to his acquisition, but they've been pretty mid thus far (against garbage).  At least OU put together a win against TTUN...even though they did everything in their power to blow it.  Mateer directed a nice offensive attack and the Sooner defense was lights out (if they laid off the dumb penalties).  If they can play a clean game, that Venables D is a scary sight.  Add to it that it's in Norman and I think Hugh Freeze and the Tigahs get a dose of reality in the new SEC.  Aub: 10--OU: 20
Hoying: Welcome to the Jackson Arnold Bowl. After a disastrous 2024 for the Sooners which saw him finish with a dreadful QBR of 47.9 (including a 1.2 in a 25-15 loss to Tennessee), the cast-off QB has found happy landings at Auburn, where he's quietly put together a better young season than OU's shiny new Heisman candidate transfer QB John Mateer. Now, Arnold is doing this against teams like Baylor while Mateer had to face Michigan (who, in all fairness, looked lost on defense against OU), but it's still odd to see a QB leave Oklahoma and get dramatically better. We're not in the Bob Stoops / Lincoln Riley era anymore, folks. But, on the other side of the ball, the Brent Venables era seems to have finally reached Norman, as the Sooner defense has been stifling so far this season after a few false starts. OU put Bryce Underwood in a blender and I wouldn't be surprised to see them do the same to their old rock-slinger. Sooners stay deep in the hunt to challenge Georgia for the SEC title. Aub: 17--OU: 24
Schweinfurth: Oklahoma showed that Will Venables still knows how to play defense. Auburn, at least in my mind, is still lost since everyone can pay players now. Shocking, I know. OU wins close. Aub: 13--OU: 17
Seeberg: I’m tired of seeing 90% of the SEC ranked. Auburn needs to lose this game solely for that reason, because OU would stay ranked with a loss (quality losses ftw!). The Sooners have officially embraced the SEC by playing defense finally, and that D will be just good enough…giggity. Aub: 20—OU: 27

Tulane Green Wave @ Mississippi Rebels
Draper: Both teams enter undefeated, but neither has looked particularly sharp.  Ole Miss eked out 2 SEC wins against meh competition, but those 2 wins are much more solid than whatever Tulane has rolled out.  Tulane is the sneaky team for Group of 5 consideration and this is the game to cement their spot on the top of the pile.  However, I don't think they have the athletes to hang in this one.  Even if the Rebs start the backup QB (as presumed), the Wave need some magic to swing this at the Grove.  BYU transfer Jake Retzlaff is a decent talent, but the line play delivers another win for the SEC.  Tul: 16--Miss: 34
Hoying: I know, I know, this seems like a bit of a mismatch to put on here, but Tulane has a habit of making people (me) look like fools when they're underestimated. Ole Miss starting QB Austin Simmons may be out with an injury for a second week in a row, and while Trinidad Chambliss was no slouch in relief last week, the Rebs still struggled to put away Arkansas, and this was after letting Kentucky hang around all game the week prior. Tulane has taken care of business against Northwestern and Duke (who, in all fairness, might both be really bad) behind a decent offense and a serviceable defense, but they haven't seen anything like what Ole Miss is about to throw at them. No need to overthink this one. The Green Wave's path the the Playoff still runs through the AAC Championship. Tul: 17--Miss: 31
Schweinfurth: Again, this is an instinct pick for me. File it under, I've haven't had enough time to actually much football so far. Ole' Miss wins. Tul: 20--Miss: 35
Seeberg: Good news: Tulane is good, and feisty. Bad news, they’re good enough that Kiffin won’t allow his Ole Miss squad to overlook them. That will happen later this season to a random nonsensical SEC team. Rebels pull away. Tul: 20—Miss: 38

Michigan Wolverines @ Nebraska Cornhuskers
Draper: What is Michigan this year? What is Nebraska this year? Does anybody really know what time it is? I honestly have no clue.  Underwood looked like a deer in headlights in Norman and 'batman' against powerhouse Central Michigan.  Will Nebraska under Matt Rhule and Dylan Raiola ever deliver? The biggest issue for the maize and blue is that their defense isn't the monster we saw the last few years.  While the offense took a slight step forward with Justice Haynes and an upgrade at QB, the defense has regressed after so much talent went to the league.  This will come down to whether or not Nebraska can be competent on offense.  If Nebraska can stay ahead of the sticks and not shoot themselves in the foot, they might finally get a decent win for the first time in what feels like 10 years.  Flip a coin, but I'm guessing Underwood still isn't ready for the road and the Huskers win (?) a close game.  UM: 20--Neb: 23
Hoying: This is it, Nebraska. If you want to prove you belong back at the big boy table, it's time to finally beat an opponent with a pulse, something the Huskers arguably haven't done since snakebiting 2015 Playoff participant Michigan State Spartans. Then again, it's possible that the Wolverines are fraudulent this year as well. Sure, they looked great pummeling Central Michigan by a margin of 60 last week (take that, two-timing Connor Stalions), but they looked utterly lost on both sides of the ball the week prior in Norman. I'm not ready to declare last year an aberrant season for Michigan, or to herald Bryce Underwood as the next big thing, but I'll believe the Cornhuskers are back when I see it, and not a moment before. Don't be surprised if they limp along to lackluster losses to USC and Penn State along the way to another mediocre bowl berth. Plus, Sherrone Moore is still sidelined for this game, so the maize and blue can't help but overperform for one more week. Let's just hope his single suspended game next year isn't against us. UM: 27--Neb: 20
Schweinfurth: I can't pick Nebraska until they can actually win one of these games. Seriously, I have no faith in the Huskers to win big games, ESPECIALLY if they are close. This smells like a one score game to me. So the Huskers and wannabe Mahomes lose close again. UM: 20--Neb: 17
Seeberg: With the LARGE caveat that UM isn’t a “big” win, it feels like Nebraska has had several of these games to return to, at least second-tier national prominence over the past 20 years and just fallen flat on their face every time. Remarkably, two 5-star QBs headline this one (welcome to the NIL era officially). Underwood, however, looked dreadful in his first road test and I just don’t think they have the weapons to beat anyone of consequence. I’m not convinced the Huskers are in that category, but this W would go a long way towards it. Raiola leads a FG drive late and Underwood can’t match it. UM: 20—Neb: 23

Illinois Fighting Illini @ Indiana Hoosiers

Draper: I'm actually surprised this isn't Gameday....  UF/UM is a nice 'rivalry' (kind of), but Florida is a Jekyll and Hyde team while we all hold our breath for the Beck collapse. This is a big time game in which we'll find if either of these teams is going to step up to be this year's....Indiana? Bert has people really drinking the Illini Kool Aid after the win over the Gamecocks in bowl season, but best guess is that these teams are actually both pretty mid 15-25 ranked teams that will bluster until they play someone of note (see IU last year).  Cignetti was very smart grabbing that money as soon as possible because keeping IU relevant will be a monumental task.  The QB transfer of MENDOZAAAAA has slung it nicely for the crimson while Altmyer has been fine for what seems like forever.  Neither team has played anyone (at all) so we'll out at least one of these teams as pretenders here.  I'm pretty surprised that the Hoosiers are favored by nearly a TD (and the line has moved more heavily in their favor.  Bloomington can be a little dangerous when IU believes (which they do), but at the end of the day, I lowkey think the Illini are better.  I'm going with boy genius Bert and hoping that he isn't able to fart this away.  Ill: 23--IU: 20
Hoying: And just like everyone foresaw, the biggest game of the day is between IU and UI (not even the Iowa version). You can say that Indiana is coasting on the fumes of last season's campaign in which they beat nobody of note and got blown out by both ranked teams they played, but the Hoosiers have been taking care of business against this year's awful teams after a slow start against Old Dominion. Illinois is ranked 10 spots higher thanks to little more than random guessing and hype from the college football media machine, but the Illini have looked the part as well outside of a shaky first half against Duke (who, again, might just be really bad). I'm not ready to call either of these teams a real contender for the Big Ten title (much like the teams immediately above) but the winner may be able to clog up the Big Ten rankings in the way that Indiana and Penn State did last year. As for the pieces on the field, Illinois will be missing a key defender as all-B1G DB Xavier Scott is out with an injury, which is bad news when you're facing Indiana's latest volcanic repeater transfer QB, the erstwhile Cal Bear Fernando Mendoza. I'll cut Indiana a break for losing to the two top ranked teams last season; I don't think their ceiling is losing to every ranked team they play. Curt Cignetti keeps it interesting for a couple more weeks before a rude awakening in Autzen. Ill: 24--Ind: 27
Schweinfurth: Indiana thinks they have the formula. Play a bunch of no name cupcakes in the non-conference and sneak into the playoffs. Smart, until they run into elite teams. Yes, the Hoosiers beat up on Indiana State. They should have. But going from that game to a ranked game isn't a step up, it's a flight to the moon. This feels like an Illini win to me. Ill: 28--IU: 24
Seeberg: Gosh this is a brutal pick…and incredibly an important one in the CFP landscape. Winner has a good track to be 2024 Indiana and snag that 4th B1G spot. Both have looked steady, but Bloomington isn’t exactly a brutal road environment. Bert has his team playing clean, and as good as I think Mendoza is, he may feel the need to press when he’s not playing Larry Bird’s FCS alma mater. One mistake too many gives the Illini a late W. Ill: 27—Ind: 23

Upset Special

Draper: Florida over Miami (gross on all fronts)

Hoying: Georgia State over Vanderbilt

Schweinfurth: Purdue over Notre Dame

Seeberg: Maryland over Wisconsin

Week 3: Bulls, Dawgs, Bobcats, and Irishmen

Standings:

1.) Draper 5-1 (1-1 upset)
2.) Seeberg 4-2 (1-1 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 4-2 (0-2 upset)
4.) Hoying 3-3 (1-1 upset)

After a couple weeks of one or two monster games flanked by legions of lesser matchups, week 3 brings some meat onto the table all Saturday long, including the young season's first premier matchup in conference play, and the potential for a preseason Playoff favorite to face elimination from contention in just their second game.

Georgia Bulldogs @ Tennessee Volunteers
Draper: Clear game of the week in Knoxville.  Is Bobby Hill able to recreate the magic of Rocky Top in year two? So far, the loss of Nico has appeared to be a blessing in disguise as they've destroyed the competition thus far.  The Dawgs have been less than inspiring thus far, but they've taken care of business. Neyland (Horseshoe South?) will certainly be insane which has led to a few famous upsets of the Tide, but the Bulldogs are still looking to prove they're in the small group of consistent contenders.  Stockton isn't super flashy, but I think he'll do enough to get a big road win to send give the Vols a dose of reality.  UGA: 24--UT: 20
Hoying: Sometimes a football is a literal football, and sometimes it's the metaphorical football held by Lucy while good old Charlie Brown runs up to try to kick it again. Tennessee hasn't beaten Georgia since Jauan Jennings caught a Hail Mary pass in the end zone wayyyy back in 2016. And the Georgia D seems to have learned its lesson since that last second failure, as the Vols have cracked 20 against the Bulldogs just once since then (UGA put up 44 in that game to make sure it was never in doubt). And this year, once again, the D in Dawg stands for defense, as a dominating performance against Austin Peay last weekend made up for a puzzlingly sputtering day on the other side of the ball. Tennessee, meanwhile, has been scoring in bunches (even without Squirrel White catching passes for them anymore) but has been a bit more porous on the other side of the ball. They say defense travels, particularly in the still-early stages of a season seeing both of these teams break in new QBs after their respective predecessors both (!) transferred out. Never mess with a streak until it's over. UGA: 24--UT: 17
Schweinfurth: Georgia feels like a sneaky good team. There hasn't been too much said to this point (then again, I haven't been able to watch much ball this year) about them. They are a good team. Just keep them off the roads. I'm not sure the Vols can hang here. UGA: 35--UT: 17
Seeberg: So the analytics, from what I’ve seen, have Tennessee favored in this one? I…feel hoodwinked. The Vols are certainly much improved under Heupel, but they haven’t yet stacked talent year over year like the Bulldogs. Neyland (south) may help to equalize things but until they prove they can win against a big boy other than that absurd shootout with Bama a few years back, I’m rolling with UGA- as long as the players aren’t driving the buses. UGA: 31—UT: 20

South Florida Bulls @ Miami Hurricanes
Draper: USF is the flavor of the month with 2 great wins to start the season, but there are still questions.  Boise may not be any good, and Napier is another level of stupid.  However, getting a win in the Swamp is no small task. Miami is living large after a nice win over the Irish in week one, but can they have consistent success? I'm not sold on the Carson Beck experiment, but, while USF is a fun story, I don't see it continuing.  Just look to the wise guys and the lack of respect given to the Bulls.  I tend to agree.  The convicts continue their top 10 pace...for now.  USF: 16--UM: 30
Hoying: Preseason polls are stupid, and early season polls are equally stupid. All week we've had to hear about how South Florida is the "most accomplished" team so far, based on beating two fringe top-25 teams that may not even be sniffing the rankings by season's end. Do we really think the Bulls have what it takes to hang with the mighty Miami Hurricanes after barely hanging on to an upset win over an overrated Florida team last week? No. They don't. Late game meltdowns against Notre Dame (who ended up ranked #2 last year, mind you) aside, the Hurricanes are still in early season maybe-this-is-their-year-for-real-this-time form. Don't get me wrong, I fully expect the U to faceplant at some point this season (maybe once they finally have to leave the state of Florida in November), but the Bulls don't have the horses to get it done this week. USF: 17--UM: 34
Schweinfurth: USF has been a great story to this point. I mean, who saw them beating two top 25 teams to start the year? I'm not sold on Boise and Florida may be really bad. Miami looks mostly competent again. At "home" with a veteran QB? Should be good for the Canes. USF: 21--UM: 38
Seeberg: Props to USF for cashing my upset pick last week, but now they’re ranked they get picked with the big games! The Gators were fraudulent (gotta be a “days til Napier gets canned” countdown clock somewhere in Gainesville), but the Hurricanes already have a top 10 win under their belt. I’m not convinced the Canes are title contenders; they’re good-to-very-good at just about everything but not quite elite anywhere. Still, that should be enough to end the Bulls’ remarkable start to the season. Beck and Co. pull away late. USF: 17—UM: 31

Texas A&M Aggies @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Draper: Is this a big game? I guess there's some name branded-ness here, but I don't really feel great about either team.  The Aggies are so very consistent and 8-4 is calling.  The Irish saw some flashes with Carr on the road in a near comeback in front of the 'raucous' South Florida crowd.  A home game is just what the youngster needs to right the ship.  Honestly, neither of these teams strike me as top contenders (except the Irish schedule is T-to the-RASH).  I wouldn't be shocked if an Irish win is the first in a string of 11 straight....until the playoffs.  Could A&M win? Absolutely.  Could they faceplant?  Of course.  Ride the roller coaster and see what happens.  I see a ground and pound game with Love followed by some key QB scrambles to elevate the Irish to victory.  TAMU: 20--ND: 27
Hoying: So about that late game meltdown...for the second game in a row, the Irish showed tremendous resolve in rallying late against an opponent that had been fully pummeling them to that point, but unlike in last year's CFP final, ND almost pulled off the comeback this time. The loss to Miami was forgivable, if disheartening, but now desperation mode should be setting in for the Irish. Unless USC continues their early season surge, Texas A&M might be the last ranked team on Notre Dame's schedule, which means that even if the Irish run off 10 straight wins following this week, a 10-2 record would likely leave them outside the CFP looking in. Do the Aggies have what it takes to deliver a good old fashioned September playoff knockout blow? Hard to say. Expectations were certainly higher for the Irish this year than for A&M, and the Aggies haven't looked dominant in early games against UTSA and Utah State. At least the run D tightened up a little against the Beehive State Aggies, because if Notre Dame ever remembers to just give the ball to Jeremiyah Love, TAMU could be in trouble. With their backs up against the wall, I expect Coach Freeman to put the Irish in position to make a statement and keep another season's championship hopes alive. TAMU: 20--ND: 23
Schweinfurth: These are two teams I have no feel for. The Irish are breaking in a new QB this year and the Aggies are an okay team? I'll take the home team on this, but close. TAMU: 17--ND: 20
Seeberg: Potential fraud alert for whoever loses this one! Last year the Irish won this one on the road, promptly lost to Northern Illinois, then went on a tear until they hit the Buckeye Buzzsaw in the title game. This season they already have a loss, however, and a second one could keep them out of the playoffs with a weak remaining schedule. Still…I mean does anyone think TAMU is legit or are they just masquerading as one of the perennially, unnecessarily ranked SEC teams? My bet is the latter. Golden Domers stay relevant this season at home. TAMU: 13—ND: 24

Ohio Bobcats @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: Welcome to that other team from the great state of Ohio.  They're riding high after beating the Eers (in Athens?!?) but Rich Rod doesn't inspire fear anymore.  The Bobcats are a step up from Grambling but a distant call from the Longhorns.  The biggest danger is complacency for the Scarlet and Gray, but I don't think this coaching staff will let that happen.  Sayin will have a nice game with 3 TDs through the air, but at least 1 pick.  The Bucks will try hard to get the run game going, but while we'll see some flashes, it still won't inspire.  I'd like to see a little more of Bo Jackson just to see what we have in the youngster.  JJ and Tate shine again and the Bullets continue their impressive start to the repeat campaign--hopefully dialing up some more pressure from the front seven.  Wash. Rinse. Repeat. OU: 10--OSU: 47
Hoying: Hey, everybody, the Ohio Bobcats beat the West Virginia Mountaineers last week! That puts them in a very special club called...everyone! Seriously, good for the Bobcats to bounce back after losing a heartbreaker in the opener to Rutgers. Senior QB Peter Navarro willed OU to a victory behind his three INTs. OK, he also put up 87 yards on the ground, so the Silver Bullets are going to have to be on their toes for this one. The good news is that if Jim Knowles was the mad scientist for the Buckeye defense, Matt Patricia has been a veritable Ms. Frizzle out of the gates with the exotic looks he's deployed to flummox Texas and Grambling alike. That being said, the one unit that hasn't seen a lot of production over the first two weeks has been the defensive ends. Rock and Roll McDonald has been doing more than his share in the middle of the line but the losses of Buckeye fixtures Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau have been keenly felt over the past couple of weeks. Of course, with Julian Sayin being capable of hitting every throw on the field, and his O-line giving him all day to throw (even against Texas) the Bucks can afford to give up a few points, maybe even their first red zone score of the year. But I wouldn't worry about this one being close. The only thing the Buckeyes have to fear is a college dropout infiltrating the ranks of the mascots to sucker punch our beloved nut. Watch your back, Brutus. OU: 10--OSU: 45
Schweinfurth: At least this game is a step up. Why did we even schedule Grambling State? Oh well, it gave the Bucks some much needed live fire. Peter Navarro is a good college QB. Don't get me wrong, he is good. This game will be won in the trenches. The Buckeyes are just more talented on the lines. It would be nice to get Peoples going in this one. And oh yea, throw Da Bomb to 4. This shouldn't be a rehash of 2010, but it may be close after the first quarter. The Bucks should win relatively easy and on to the Bye week. OU: 9--OSU: 49
Seeberg: Well crap, someone who posted before me took my score prediction! Oh well, such is life. To their credit, the Bobcats started their season with 3 straight power 4 opponents, nearly beating Rutgers before downing West Virginia (I assume Rich Rod’s time at UM made him unable to tell the difference between Ohio and Ohio State). The Buckeyes are definitely a few levels up from what they’ve seen so far. Keeping Navarro caged in will be key. I’d like to see a scheme similar to when Cody Simon spied Gabriel in the Rose Bowl and closed him out all game to the tune of 2 sacks and defensive MVP. On offense, Sayin showed his insane accuracy, and though receivers may not be quite so open as last week, he should have plenty of chances. Would like to see the run game take a step forward as well. Let’s hammer it down their throats, keep Sayin (and Brutus as mentioned above!) clean, and enjoy the bye week at 3-0 and prepping for a fun road game at Washington. OU: 6—OSU: 42

Upset Special

Draper: Arkansas over Ole Miss

Hoying: Florida over LSU

Schweinfurth: Wisconsin over Bama

Seeberg: Texas State over Arizona State 

Week 2: The Lesser Rivals Showcase

Standings:

1.) Draper 2-1 (1-0 upset)
2.) Hoying 1-2 (0-1 upset)
2.) Seeberg 1-2 (0-1 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 1-2 (0-1 upset)

After the eyes of Texas (and everyone else) were on Columbus last weekend, the bitter rivals of those competitors are meeting up for a semi-phenomenal, nearly cosmic battle of their own in Big 12 SEC country. Still, it's easily the best matchup of the day, unless you want to see a dead body in the Shoe (and who doesn't?) or you have the true heart of a Sicko to cast your eyes upon an annual rivalry of futility and mediocrity renewed once again.

Michigan Wolverines @ Oklahoma Sooners
Draper: What to do? TTUN was a QB away from being decent last year, but we still don't know if they have one.  He looked decent in week one, but the peripheral pieces have dropped off a bit.  OU was supremely mediocre last year but there are some rumblings that they may have found the next QB in John Mateer.  It's really hard to pull any information from these week 1 games, but Underwood flashed at times (and wasn't awful) while Mateer looked phenomenal (against a paper bag).  I wouldn't be surprised either way, but I tend to avoid picking freshman led teams in their first road start.  Norman is a tall order for the youngling and also.....screw them.  BOOMER!! UM: 17--OU: 24
Hoying: Time to find out just how good a coach Sherrone Moore is. Yes, he stood toe to toe with Ohio State and Alabama last year and refused to flinch, but the Wolverines were playing with house money by that point. Now, after enduring Jack Tuttle, Alex Orji, and Davis Warren during last year's torturous campaign, Moore finally has his QB of the future. And as last season marched onward, it seemed that a decent QB may have been the only piece stopping the maize and blue from running it back for a for real no asterisk run at the title. Of course, Kenneth Grant and Mason Graham have moved on, but it's not like UM has been hurting for elite level D-line play in the post-COVID era. OU had their own problems at quarterbacks last season but seemed to have a few more problems in lopsided losses to South Carolina, Texas, and LSU (and a bowl loss to Navy). The Cheat Weasels didn't inspire a lot of confidence with last week's kind-of-close win over New Mexico, but I'm betting they were saving their best for this week. UM: 24--OU: 21
Schweinfurth: UM: 17--OU: 20
Seeberg: Well the season has begun, we have an actual data point for teams now!  Still not much on which to base conclusions, however.  I think it’s relatively safe to say that UM’s offense looked a notch better than anticipated, while the defense maybe looked a half-step worse.  The Sooners, meanwhile, may actually have the better quarterback in the Red River Rivalry this season, which would have sounded blasphemous just seven short days ago.  Venables seems to have the defense shaped up as well.  And, let’s be real, nobody reading this wants to see the maize and blue win…ever.  Boomer Sooner.  UM: 17—OU: 27

Iowa Hawkeyes @ Iowa State Cyclones

Draper: Everyone's favorite rivalry that no one particularly cares about.  Are the Clones ready to stake a claim as contenders? I'm not so sure that a win cements their status as ready to compete, but a loss would be a major blow.  Rocco Becht and Co. look like the frontrunners of the Big 12 (along with Utah) but can Ferentz work his voodoo in El clAssico  once more? I'm not sold on Iowa, but stranger things have happened.  On second thought, looking at the fire performance from the Hawkeyes on offense last week, maybe it's just business as usual.  Iowa: 16--ISU: 27
Hoying: This always seems to be a game that gives the Hawkeyes fits even when Iowa State is wallowing in the Big 12 mud. But this year, the Clones are already 2-0 with a ranked win (though a highly suspect looking one in hindsight) across two continents. And Iowa just finished up a dreadful performance by their new transfer QB Mark Gronowski, who put up 44 total passing yards on just 2.9 yards per attempt. And that was against Albany. I'm not sure why any offensive player would ever transfer to Iowa (unless, like Cade McNamara, you've been booted out of your job at your old school) but settle in, Mark. It's going to be a looong season with Penn State, Oregon, and yes, even Indiana and Michigan State coming to town. The eternally glacial flame under Kirk Ferentz's seat might actually pick up a few degrees this year as the Hawkeye faithful begin to wonder if an actual working offense might not suit them better. No more free passes to the Big Ten Championship out of the feckless west, Kirk. Iowa: 10--ISU: 20
Schweinfurth: Iowa: 9--ISU: 10
Seeberg: Ah yes, that classic in-state battle for a pretty cool trophy and…typically that’s about it.  Still uncertain if either of these teams is good, but I am certain that the Hawkeyes’ offense is bad.  Less than 50 yards passing against an FCS opponent is both REALLY sad and REALLY predictable.  Iowa State, meanwhile, beat Will Howard’s former squad that apparently is poor at talent recognition since they ran him out of town for whatever Avery Johnson claims to be.  This is probably a “first to 20” wins game…and 20 is rarified air for the black and gold.  Cyclones take the Cyhawk.  ISU: 20—Iowa: 13

Grambling State Tigers @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: Not a lot to say.... even the Grambling coach knowns what's happening.  Honestly, this is a moment to work out the kinks we saw last week on offense.  Sayin should open up a little more with little fear of 'making the big mistake'.  Don't expect too many starters in the 2nd half. Jeremiah is a lock for at least 1 TD to fix those dropsies while the game plan should be getting live game reps and trying out new things.  Defensively, there's not much room to grow, but I predict Grambling will get in the end zone much to Buckeye Nation's chagrin (against the scrubs).  Honestly, this is a game in which we hope no one gets hurt and we try some fun things out.  Grambling's coach mentioned they'll compete...as a band....but we all know what's going to happen.  GSU: 7--OSU: 59

Hoying: 1-0 is 1-0, especially against the #1 team in the country. But let's not pretend that last week's performance was flawless. The two most heavily touted pass catchers on the team had the old Crisco gloves on during the first quarter, and the run game wasn't able to generate much push once Texas figured out that the Buckeyes were trying to run clock Lt. Governor style for the entire second half. Grambling should provide a good opportunity to work on their timing and execution against some nominally live reps. The defense, however, was unimpeachable last week. My categorical error in predicting last week's outcome was thinking that the defense had to be rebuilt, instead of just not breaking it, especially with Caleb Downs practically being a mini-coach out there on the field himself. So the Silver Bullets should be able to name their score this weekend (hopefully zero) so long as they can stay focused. Another cupcake next week, a bye, and then the season really gets interesting as Big Ten play starts off with a bang in Seattle. For now, just stamp the ticket and move on to week 3. GSU: 3--OSU: 63

Schweinfurth: GSU: 0--OSU: 63

Seeberg: Well, nice to have that big win out of the way isn’t it?  The fact that 14 points and barely over 200 yards of offense was enough speaks volumes about how good Matt Patricia and that defense are already - and how great they can become.  As long as that D-line gets just enough pressure, it looks as though the back 7 will hold up well.  Downs actually wasn’t in on a ton of plays, but he was reading things and taking away reads all over the field while Reese and McClain tackled everything carrying the football.  On the offensive side of the ball, Sayin actually graded out a champion, and his stats would look markedly different without the 4(!) drops from a usually sure-handed WR/TE corps.  Hopefully, Day and Hartline use this week’s outmatched opponents to work the run game and open up the offense for Sayin to command more of it.  Pass protection looked very solid which was a plus.  I don’t know if Day will shorten games as much this season as he did last year, since this squad is young and needs more reps.  Either way, it should be a relaxing 3:30 watch, with astonishingly non-homer Jake Butt on the call.  Enjoy, Buckeye Nation.  GSU: 10—OSU: 45

Upset Special

Draper: ULM over Bama

Hoying: Mississippi State over Arizona State

Schweinfurth: East Texas A&M over Florida State

Seeberg:  South Florida over Florida

Week 1: The Stars at Noon Are Big and Bright

It's title defense time in Columbus, Ohio, which for both such seasons in recent memory has meant a long, joyless slog before watching hopes of a repeat slip away at the last moments. This year, the Buckeyes don't have time for a hangover, as perhaps the biggest season opener in the history of the game finds its way to the banks of the Olentangy (under the bright lights of...the sun). Elsewhere, perennial early season heroic schedulers LSU, Clemson, and Notre Dame find themselves with nasty wake-up calls even before the month of August is out.

Louisiana State Tigers @ Clemson Tigers

Draper: Now the dust of another offseason is in the books and our long national nightmare is over....well actually, it's been pretty...pretty....pretty good after the end of last season (It's good to be the king).  The one (potential) good outcome of the playoff is that these early season games should become more of the norm (since the points are made up and the score doesn't matter).  Now, to the play on the field.  This is the annual 'we really have no clue so let's throw some darts'. Both teams return top Heisman favorites at QB but the questions are " Can Brian Kelly actually win a season opener?" and "Can Clemson actually play defense this year?"  Tom Allen is supposed to fix all wounds (and he did wonders for IU), but will it be enough?  Honestly, Clemson is a big name this year due to a senior laden roster, but I don't think they have the horses to beat the best of the best.  Good news everyone! LSU is not the best of the best! I'm going to (begrudgingly) give the slight edge to the Tigers (checks notes...), I mean the slight edge to Death Valley (checks notes...), I mean the slight edge to the team that plays Tiger Rag....Oh well, I lean the team playing in their own Death Valley, home of the dumbest pregame tradition of rubbing a rock.  Dabo gets it done (barely) while Brian Kelly feels the heat turned up to a new level.  LSU: 27--Clem:30
Hoying: Another year, another monster opener for Brian Kelly's LSU. Say what you want about the SEC's out of conference scheduling, but it takes real courage to start every year's Playoff hunt in a one-game hole like the Bayou Bengals do year after year. And this time it'll be against another team that's been lost in the wilderness for the first half of the 2020's. Neither team has been able to replicate its respective height from the 2020 CFP Championship, when Joe Burrow showed Trevor Lawrence how we do things in Athens, OH, before Justin Fields and Crew put the nail in Clemson's coffin the following year. Clemson is a trendy pick to return to the Playoff after sneaking in last year, and even to make off with the hardware depending on whom you ask. But I have to say I don't see it. Clemson QB Cade Klubnik may be the best returning QB in college football this year, but the Tigers had him last season and CU opened the season by getting pasted by Georgia 34-3. And LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier may be every bit as good as Carson Beck was last year. LSU's defense has been pretty bad ever since their last magical title run but it's not like Clemson was a brick wall last season either. I'll believe the Tigers (the purple ones) (the purple AND ORANGE ONES) can win another big boy game against a big boy opponent when I see it. Kelly finally starts the season on the right foot. LSU: 31--Clem: 27

Schweinfurth: Brian Kelly hasn't won a single opener at LSU. Let that sink in. They guy who was brought in to turn a program around is failing. Clemson is a trendy pick to make a lot of noise this year. I can see it, now that Dabo has learned that you can actually help your team through the transfer portal. I have no faith in Brian Kelly until he proves he can actually coach a team instead of just yelling and turning purple. LSU: 24--Clem: 31

Seeberg:  First of all, credit to ALL six of these teams for scheduling absolute bangers in week one.  You love to see it!  Now to the games.  Tigers of Death Valley, meet Tigers of Death Valley.  Everyone is high on both of these teams this year, primarily due to recruiting rankings coupled with returning signal callers.  Dabo’s squad may be good enough to make a run in the CFP and keep his gig for another few years, despite his almost anachronistic view of the sport these days.  Brian Kelly has another top 10 team too; however, not only did he squander the literal Heisman winner two years ago (who also showed out in the NFL), but he never wins these opening games.  USC got him in week one last year, and Clemson is markedly better than that team.  I don’t buy that LSU will be light years better than last season, so I’ve gotta go with the orange-clad Tigers in this one.  Clem: 31—LSU: 20

SUNDAY, AUGUST 31

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Miami Hurricanes

Draper: Oh boy....thinking about this game, my immediate gut reaction was 'why are we even talking about this game?'  The Irish went to the title game last year (some luck but still), and Miami....sucks.  While Miami still does indeed suck, I forgot about Carson Beck fleeing to South Florida to be with his girlfr....ooops.  The intrigue is that Miami has a proven starter (who may be just ok) but ND is starting a redshirt freshman.  While Hard Rock Stadium and the Miami home crowd is usually meh at best, they tend to come out (a little) for the bigger games.  I don't think the homefield advantage will be massive, but the simple fact that the signal caller on the other side is extremely green makes this really interesting.  I expect a MASSIVE amount of work to go to Jeremiyah Love but if the Canes don't have any respect for the pass, there could be trouble.  Beck should provide a stabilizing presence.  Although it guts me to do this, I'm picking the Convicts.  I don't like it, but home team, at night, with the (likely) better QB, in the opener? ND: 17--UM: 20
Hoying: Speaking of monster openers, the Irish are up to bat again and hoping to get to October unscathed for the first time in the Marcus Freeman era. Not that any early losses have stopped them in the past from making it even to the CFP Championship. The Irish were never going to win that game (no, not even before 3rd-and-Jeremiah) and they still need to take another step to be a true title contender, but Miami has been a giant leap behind them ever since Glenn Sharpe grabbed Chris Gamble in the Tempe end zone. If the Canes can give Carson Beck the glow-up they gave Cam Ward last year, they should be able to score on anybody, but as Miami learned in their last 2 games last year, even scoring 38+ won't save you if the defense doesn't get off the bus. Defense has been Notre Dame's calling card under Freeman, and with Jeremiyah Love back to pace the Irish ground game, it's up to Lloyd Carr's grandson to try to give Notre Dame the steady hand behind center they've been so desperately missing in their last few campaigns. Time will tell if he is the answer they've been looking for, but they won't need his A-game to get by Miami. No rest for the wicked, as Texas A&M will come calling in just two week, but the Irish are hot out of the gates for a second straight year. ND: 34--UM: 31

Schweinfurth: I'm not buying Miami this year. They brought in Cam Ward to make them better last year and got a similar result. Notre Dame is still well coached and will suck the life out a game. I'll take the Domers. ND: 21--UM: 13

Seeberg:  Sunday night banger before the NFL takes over (meh).  Teams are never the same at the end of the year as they are at the start.  Never will that hold more true than in this matchup.  The Irish have the better roster top to bottom, but start a wildly young QB.  Carson Beck leads the U, which sounds great, until you realize that Cam Ward couldn’t get this squad to the playoffs last year…and none of their skill players that left even made an NFL roster.  Not great implications about the guys behind them.  If this one were in November, or even the playoff, I would almost certainly take ND, but Freeman’s teams start slow more often than not (see:  NIU, Miami Ohio, Louisville last year) and this is quick start week one.  The U gets the W and thinks they’re back before a hilarious loss to South Florida in two more weeks.  ND: 17—Miami: 24

SATURDAY, AUGUST 30

Texas Longhorns @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: Once more, into the breach.  Your reward for winning a national championship is starting the next year with a new QB, against a top team, a Hall of Famer's nephew (and Eli), and a team who you dispatched on the way to the title (You will always remember the name of Captain Jack Sawyer).  While this game shows what is wrong with the playoff, it also shows the greatness of college football.  The winner will be showered with praise, and the loser will be taunted and booed until my throat is sore! Honestly, this has little effect on the grand scheme as both teams are likely in the CFP (although a loss for UT would make the margin for error quite thin in the SEC--can't have 2 more losses--probably).  On to the game: the Buckeyes' season will come down to the same question as last year: can the QB not lose the game? The hype is there with Sayin, but we simply haven't seen it yet.  Honestly, the hype is the there for Arch, but he's not the polished prospect everyone says he is.  I'd give the edge to OSU for almost every position group (outside of QB), but the margins are thin across the board. The X factors are the top 2 players in college football and thankfully they both wear scarlet.  Jeremiah Smith is a legit NFL receiver right now (and likely last year as well) so the Horns will need to scheme him to a reduced capacity.  Bad news for them is that Carnell Tate is also eyeing the league and should have some softer coverage.  Caleb Downs is a top 5 pick in the NFL next year and he's going to have to lead this young defense and be the coordinator on the field (since the DC ran away as fast as he could when he didn't get his way).  Matt Patricia is an interesting (weird) hire, but he's thrown right into the fire vs. a Sarkesian led team.  I expect both teams to show flaws and both QBs to make mistakes, but the magic of the Shoe needs to be the final nail in the coffin. I could see this going anyway as these teams are both clearly in the elite athletic class.  Execution is key....and I'm throwing to #4.  Go Bucks! Open the season with a bang! UT: 20--OSU: 24
Hoying: If you think the deja vu is strong in Columbus, imagine what they're going through down south. No Notre Dame sandwich game for the Longhorns: they're facing the Scarlet and Gray in back-to-back games, a phenomenon I'm not sure has ever happened in the history of Buckeye football. But much like last year's national championship rematch in Seattle, these are hardly the same two teams that faced off back in January. A combined 26 players have since left for the NFL, leaving numerous holes and question marks across both teams. Of course, all Ohio State does is reload (as does...Texas? per Stanford Steve, notwithstanding taking the entirety of the 2010s off) but the QB and DL positions remain a bit untested. Not the best recipe for success when opening the season against the #1 team in the country. But Texas is still a work in progress as well. Yes, Arch has the famous last name, but so did Eli, and he never won anything of consequence at Ole Miss. And if you remember the Buckeyes' struggles at O-line last year, Texas is in the midst of replacing 4 starters with relatively untested replacements, including a left tackle with a cast on his hand. That'll make it a bit harder to get away with the standard 20 free holds a game spotted to OSU's opponents. I so want to go with the home team in this one. Top to bottom, I think the Buckeyes are the more complete team and just better overall. But as much as Jimmies and Joes beat X's and O's, the scheme matters on the margins when the game is otherwise nearly talent-equated. And you don't want to be breaking in a new OC and a brand new DC on a stage like this. It took 3 years for Jim Knowles's defense to reach its final form, and the offense never looked quite right back in 2023 when Hartline took the reins the first time. Sark is one of the finest offensive minds in the business, so Ohio State better have their defense ready to go from the opening gun. It helps to have continuity from last year's championship defense with Caleb Downs, who's practically a defensive coach himself, but miscommunications doomed Ohio State against Oregon last year, and I fear the same trip-ups will snag them here. Horns get revenge, regain the lead in the series, and slide into the (cattle) driver's seat for a favorable seed in the Playoff. UT: 23--OSU: 20.

Schweinfurth: For all the talk of Ohio State needing to replace everyone...so is Texas. Here's the thing, Ohio State actually has the more experienced offensive line. This will be huge. There is also a cheat code out wide in #4. Yes, Texas has Arch Manning, but he hasn't been the world beater everyone says he is so far. Maybe I'm wrong. I do know that Matt Patricia is going to unleash Arvell Reese and Sonny Styles. This one should be fun and a classic. The Bucks owe Texas one in the 'Shoe (Sweed didn't catch the ball). UT: 20--OSU: 27

Seeberg:  Well kids, we made it.  Buckeye football is back!  The glow of the natty seems to be long gone inside the Woody.  This team is so dichotomous to me.  It looks NOTHING like the title-winning team from last season.  Fourteen(!) draft picks- and Josh Fryar made a roster as a UDFA- are gone (and I’m still made that Tre never returned kickoffs).  New faces absolutely everywhere.  However, we also have, almost inarguably, the best offensive AND defensive player in the country returning. Seems impossible.  And who’s coming to town? 

The Longhorns, the team that clearly gave us the stiffest test in the postseason last year.  They’re also replacing a big chunk of talent (12 draft picks, including the Thorpe Award winner), but their D-line is largely intact.  And in case you hadn’t heard, they have a Manning at QB- one who threw for over 1,000 yards last season in just two starts and spot/mop up duty. That experience must feel like a lifetime to Julian Sayin who hasn’t seen the field when the Buckeyes were within 40 of their opponent on the scoreboard.  As much as Jeremiah is an absolute cheat code, 1 catch for 3 yards against Texas’s excellent zone scheme last year suggests he can be neutralized by their plans.  Tate had a day, however, (7 catches, 87 yards) which leads me to believe that WR3 needs to have a big day (Inniss?).  Q and Tre also showed up in a big way, and they’re both gone as well, so Peoples and CJ and even Bo Jackson might need a big play or two. In sum, these two are top five programs again for a reason.  Talent abounds everywhere.  Day should employ a similar game plan for Sayin that CJ Stroud had in his first start against Minnesota in 2021; lots of short/intermediate throws and lots of moving pockets to keep the pressure light.  Will Hartline do something similar?   One can only hope, but it’s his first time truly with the reins as well.  It may get disjointed at times- frankly I’d be surprised if it didn’t.  Again, if these squads meet in January, all things the same, I’m likely taking the Buckeyes.  But I just can’t do it here.  Close, tense, low-scoring.  First to 24 would assuredly win it, and I don’t think either team even gets there.  Longhorns escape but the Buckeyes’ future looks bright.  UT: 20—OSU: 17  

Upset Special
Draper: FSU over Bama (Leeeeerrrrooooooyyyyy Jeeeeennnnnkkkkiinnnssssss)
Hoying: Syracuse over Tennessee
Schweinfurth: UCLA over Utah
Seeberg:  Toledo over Kentucky

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF CHAMPIONSHIP - OHIO STATE VS. NOTRE DAME

Final Standings:

1.) Draper 53-18 (2-12 upset)
2.) Hoying 52-19 (3-11 upset)
3.) Seeberg 51-20 (3-11 upset)
4.) Schweinfurth 48-23 (1-13 upset)

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Draper: The day has finally arrived, and the story of the season will finally have been written.  Will this Buckeye class live forever as gladiators that arose from the ashes to be crowned kings or live in infamy as the top class that never beat TTUN or won any hardware?  After suffering the slings and arrows of the fanbase, I’d be hard pressed to have found a team that has rallied more strongly to each other, to their coach, and to a mission.  This is the day where it comes to fruition.  From an Xs-and-Os standpoint, the Buckeyes have advantages all over the field. The one advantage held by the Irish would be the mobile nature of Riley Leonard.  I expect Downs to play a lot of the game in the box to curtail the running and daring Leonard to go over the top where Ransom and Co. will be waiting.  Much of the onus will fall on Cody Simon’s shoulders to muster the run defense and keep the bullets tight in the run game.  The D-line will get pressure against a good Irish O-line with the freshman left tackle.  On the other side of the ball, Howard will continue dealing.  Most talk about the Irish secondary (which is very good), but I believe the Longhorn secondary is better. Expect Smith to get involved this game more, because the Irish can’t hold up in the front seven without support. If he is taken out, the myriad other weapons will be activated.  Tre busts a few chunk plays, Q pounds the rock for short yardage, Howard deals and runs more than expected, and the receivers ball out as usual.  If we don’t play the UM ‘shoot ourselves in the foot at every juncture game’, I don’t see the Irish path to victory.  Keep it clean, limit turnovers, play your game, and we hoist the trophy tonight.  One more, then forever. Go Bucks! OSU: 27--ND: 13
Hoying: Unless you thought that the five advantages for the Irish that I had to rack my brain to produce are all total gamechangers, you already know who I’m picking in this one. The Buckeyes have proven this season that they can lose to an inferior, borderline-bad team (albeit one on a steep upswing). But as I said in my Tennessee preview, that basically required the Buckeye offense to do exactly as much, no more, no less, as it took to lose that game. Every game since has proven that Chip Kelly took the loss to TTUN as personally as Knowles took the loss to Oregon. I think the Irish are going to need all of their lucky charms to win this one. Riley Leonard is just plain bad under pressure, and none of the Buckeyes’ Playoff opponents have found a way to slow down the Buckeye pass rush, even with enough opposing offensive lines dishing out more hugs than the Tanner family on Full House. And they haven’t faced near the injuries that Notre Dame has. Joe Alt isn’t walking through that door anytime soon to save them. The Irish pass defense is elite, but they’re not good enough to manage Smith, Egbuka, and Tate one-on-one. You cheat back a little and that opens the door for Judkins and Henderson to do what Chip Trayanum and, well, Henderson did to them last year. Notre Dame does not have the interior line strength to put six in the box and dare Ohio State to run. Basically, they have to hope that Howard completely implodes to the point that it makes his performance on November 30th look like Dwayne Haskins’, then turn the resulting basket of sacks and turnovers into short enough fields that the Silver Bullets don’t have time to bend before they break. This is the most pissed off Ohio State team since…well, the last time these two met in the postseason, and we saw what happened on that day even after Joey Bosa’s career ended on the ticky-tackiest targeting call this side of Denzel Ward’s BBQ Shack. The gate is wide and the way is easy that leads to destruction, and those Ohio State opponents who enter by it are many. The gate is narrow and the way is hard, that leads to life against the Buckeyes, and those who find it are few. They won’t find it tonight. OSU: 28—ND: 13
Schweinfurth: The long and winding road of this season ends tonight. A lot of ills and wounds can be healed by one more victory. Jack Sawyer and company have been playing the type of defense Buckeye fans have been clamoring for since the 2014 team. The Silver Bullets have been absolutely dominant all season. One more test in a bit of a paper tiger offense. If the Bullets can keep the Irish offense bottled up, it could be over quick. Especially if Notre Dame decides man coverage is a good idea. There are so many weapons on the Buckeye offense and I'm not sure the Irish have faced a team like this. The Irish offensive line is beat up (yes, so is Ohio State's, but they had time to adjust) and Sawyer, JTT, and Tyliek should eat well. Finally, this team plays hard for Ryan Day. They love the man, and I get it. Lou Holtz started running his mouth again (FWIW) and my have started writing checks the Irish can't cash. Go Bucks. Let's get #9! OSU: 31--ND: 10
Seeberg:  Look, this game has been broken down ad nauseum the last week and change. The fact is that there are more ways to victory for the scarlet and gray. Talent and scheme favor the Buckeyes. But the last two years have taught us that this will still be a four quarter contest. I hope to see a similar defensive plan as Oregon. Simon spied Gabriel beautifully and first-read throws were largely taken away. Another fast start is paramount to get the Irish uncomfortable and for our seniors. They have prepared and preached about playing one more week in the scarlet and gray. Well, there’s no more games now. An early deficit coupled with that realization could be disastrous. But despite the circuitous route, this team is right where many of us thought they would be when things kicked off 5(!) months ago. In recent Buckeye history, this game has the feel of 2023 OSU-PSU to me. Bucks will appear the superior team but ND won’t beat themselves and hang in well past half. In the end, however, a big drive or a clutch stop (preferably both) will finally put the golden domers away. Enjoy the night Buckeye Nation! OSU: 24—ND: 13

Ten Reasons Ohio State Beats Notre Dame

1. The Safety Dance

When Ohio State hired Jim Knowles to take a hatchet to the incompetent defense that cost the Buckeyes a natty (2020) and their longest ever streak in The Game (2021), they were expecting the same kind of three high safety driven scheme that Knowles had run at Oklahoma State. And they implemented it fairly well in 2022, with Tanner McCalister following Knowles from the other OSU to teach Ronnie Hickman and Lathan Ransom how the scheme worked. But I doubt that Knowles could have foreseen the kind of talent he'd have at his disposal on the back end for Ohio State this year. Ransom's still here, and he's the highest-graded run defender in the country. Caleb Downs might just be the best defender in the country, period. I can't recall a play this season where I thought, "Man, Caleb, what are you doing?" but there seems to be at least one in every game where I'm not convinced the guy is human. Throw in last year's elite nickelback Jordan Hancock to round out the 3-safety look and you'll not find a better deep threat container and run game neutralizing combination anywhere in college football.

2. Ask and You Shall Receive

Notwithstanding Ohio State's elite safety unit, Notre Dame has put the best performing pass defense of any team on the field this fall (and winter). But they haven't seen anything like what Ohio State's about to roll out on them. Last time the Irish took the field they did not allow a single reception to a wide receiver. But that's Penn State for you; Ohio State allowed three receptions to wide receivers in Happy Valley earlier this season. The only team that Notre Dame has seen with receiver talent in the same galaxy as Ohio State is USC, and they allowed 360 yards through the air and 3 TDs to the Trojans. Oregon decided to play man-to-man coverage against Jeremiah Smith and paid dearly. Notre Dame has pledged to do the same; let's see if there's a man among them who can stop a properly motivated #4.

3. H-O-R-W-A-R-D

All the wide receiver talent in the world doesn't make much of a difference if the man behind center can't get them the ball. Look no further than (no, not Ohio State last year, leave Kyle McCord alone), let's say, LSU pre-Burrow. After McCord declared his intentions to leave and it became really, really obvious that Devin Brown and Lincoln Kienholz weren't going to be the answer, Buckeye Nation was a bit frustrated to miss out on Dillon Gabriel and Cam Ward to pick up...Will Howard? I mean, yeah, nice Big 12 championship, but the last transfer QB we picked up in a pinch was one of the top recruits in his year and left thanks to criminal mismanagement of his talents by his Georgia Bulldogs. It felt like with Howard, you knew what you were getting at this point. I thought if he could be as good as replacement-level JT Barrett, the Buckeyes might have a chance. Folks, he's been better. Outside of a clunker against you-know-who, Howard has been one of the steadiest hands in college football, with a 72.6% completion percentage that ranks #1 in Ohio State history and one of the top QB ratings across the entire sport. Riley Leonard is a great dual threat QB in his own right but I wouldn't expect him to engineer a 13 play, 88 yard drive with 7 completions like Will used to put Texas away.

4. I've Aged You Well. Some Might Say Perfect

This year has been an interesting reversal of fortune for the collective age of the Scarlet and Gray. A program that's used to sending its top talent early to the NFL and facing scrappy underdogs of second-tier senior talent suddenly finds itself holding on to the vast majority of the landmark 2021 class for one more year. And people say NIL is destroying the sport. From here in Columbus, it looks like it's saving college football, convincing players to stick around for one more year who'd otherwise be long gone. Joliet Jack spent the offseason putting the band back together, and the fruits of his labor are a starting lineup featuring 13 senior or grad starters, the vast majority of which could easily have found playing time in the NFL this year. Setting aside the obvious raw ability of this group, their combined experience and leadership are precisely the intangibles any championship team needs.

5. Bustin' Makes Me Feel Bad

It feels strange to say, but the Buckeyes have been relatively lucky from an injury standpoint this year. Yes, they were thin at offensive line even when the season began, and yes, they lost their two best players on the line, forcing them to rethink how to put together an effective run blocking scheme. But Notre Dame's been getting punched in the gut again and again this season, up to and including their last outing in the semifinals against Penn State. From All-American cornerbacks, to offensive linemen, defensive linemen, a kicker, and even their star running back. It's gotten so bad that starting lineman Charles Jagusah, ruled out for the season during training camp, might be back for the championship...to replace another lineman, Antoine Knapp, who left the Penn State game with an injury. The Irish have weathered the storm to the tune of a 13-game winning streak, but when you're already working at a talent disadvantage, you don't want to be breaking in new starters against the best team you'll face all year.

6. Line Dance

Speaking of breaking in a new-look offensive line, the Irish have come up with the worst possible time to do so. The Buckeye defensive front has been an absolute wrecking crew throughout the Playoff, totaling 12 sacks, 17 TFLs, and 10 pass breakups, along with a pretty significant forced fumble and touchdown to clinch a spot in the championship. Jack Sawyer in particular has been playing like a man on fire, which is even more impressive considering every opposing tackle along the way has mistaken him for Olaf and given him a warm hug. But with Notre Dame starting a new left tackle this week, look for the damage to be done on the other side of the D line by JT Tuimoloau in his swan song. A repeat of the 2022 Penn State game wouldn't be out of the question.

7. Running on Empty

As stated above and in our list of Irish superlatives, Notre Dame covers the pass like no one else nationwide. It may surprise you to hear, then, that their run defense has been downright pedestrian. Part of this may be a defensive line that's a constant work of progress due to injury. But for whatever reason, the Buckeye offense, usually predicated on success through the air, may find some room to work on the ground after taking a step back against Texas. Notre Dame's elite rushing attack may be elite but Jeremiyah Love will have a lot harder time trying to run on TnT inside and Caleb and Lathan outside than Tre and Quinshon will finding room against a (relatively) soft Irish front. Look for Howard to have a game changing play like he did against Penn State and Texas as well.

8. Notre Dame Ain't Played Nobody, Pawwwwwl (until the Playoff)

The tone of the media was very different after Ohio State's loss to Oregon as compared to the treatment of Notre Dame after losing to Northern Illinois. The Irish had been riding high off of a season-opening road win over Texas A&M, but one untimely loss put their Playoff hopes on a razor's edge as early as week 2. The reason? A squishy soft schedule the rest of the way, which looks even worse in retrospect. The only team Notre Dame played in the regular season that was ranked going into bowl season was Army, and that was only because new rankings didn't go out after the Black Knights lost to Navy. The Irish have more than proven their mettle in the Playoff itself, as Indiana, Georgia, and Penn State are no joke, but Ohio State has been doing this all year. Notre Dame will be the sixth Playoff team the Buckeyes will have faced this season, seventh if you count Oregon twice. Basically everyone except the joke teams and Georgia. Ohio State's proven that they can lose to the mediocre as well as the great, but this will be the ultimate test for an Irish squad that had the luxury of sleeping through class until December's wake-up call.

9. Goldilocks Defense

The Buckeyes are knocking on the door of their first national title in ten years, but they came agonizingly close just two years ago. Facing off against the #1 team in the country, who would go on to the biggest national championship blowout in history just a week later, the Buckeyes surrendered an eleven-point 4th quarter lead to fall by one point to the national champs. Most emblematic of that collapse was a one-play, 76-yard drive to cut Ohio State's lead to 3. Lathan Ransom fell down in man coverage and there was no other safety to help him. The play served as a great microcosm of the overly aggressive Jim Knowles defense that worked like gangbusters in 2022 until Michigan and Georgia were able to exploit it mercilessly for a combined 86 points. In 2023, the Buckeye defense were more content to play contain and keep everything in front of them, which worked well all season until Missouri and, who else, were able to eventually wear down the Silver Bullets, who forced no turnovers to help out the insufficient Buckeye offenses in those games. This year, Knowles seems to have mixed the formula just right, and suddenly it's like watching the 2019 defense again, with a punishing line and suffocating secondary working hand in hand to create nightmares for opposing teams. Nowhere was this more evident than the crucial penultimate last series against the Longhorns, where the back seven held up the Texas offense just enough to allow the defensive line to stick the last dagger deep in the heart of Texas.

10. One More, Then Forever

If you haven't read Jack Sawyer's goodbye piece about what being a Buckeye means to him, by all means go read that instead of this (although we'd love you to come back and finish this, too). The 2021 Buckeye class features some of the best to ever put on the Scarlet and Gray at their respective positions. And while these players have won 46 games and never lost more than two games in a season (inshallah) or finished outside the top ten, they haven't attained a single one of the team's goals in any of their seasons. If they don't want to leave Ohio State as the most accomplished group of failures in program history, they'll need to take advantage of their one last chance to write their page in the chronicles of Buckeye legends. As mentioned in the schedule analysis above, this Buckeye team has proven it can beat multiple top teams in a season, and they've had to string a few together by the sheer structure of the new Playoff. Time to put it all together and deliver four years' worth of frustration to whatever poor saps stand between them and immortality.

Five Reasons Notre Dame Beats Ohio State

Traditionally, leading up to a national championship game featuring Ohio State, we at Let's Go Bucks! set forth ten reasons why each team could emerge victorious from the season's final clash. This year will be a little different. Stay tuned for ten reasons why Ohio State beats Notre Dame, but the case for the Golden Domers will be limited to five arguments only. No disrespect to the Irish, it's just that their march onward to victory is narrower and comprises fewer paths than the Buckeyes'.

1. No Fly Zone 

Ohio State may feature one of the best one-two punches at running back in the nation, but the Buckeyes continue make their hay through the air, especially in the Playoff. That's bad news when you're facing the nation's #1 pass defense in both success rate and EPA. In contrast to Texas, who also had an elite pass defense and was able to frustrate the Buckeye air attack to an extent, the Irish rely heavily on Cover-1 and other man concepts rather than zone. Time will tell if the Irish secondary can win some one-on-one battles or if this game turns into Rose Bowl II: Lost in Atlanta. It's worth noting that Ohio State is right behind the Irish in pass defense (#2 in success rate and efficiency, #1 in yards per game). But either way, "ND" doesn't stand for "No Defense" anymore.

2. Rush Hour

The Irish superlatives aren't limited to the defensive side of the ball. Notre Dame also has the sport's top rushing attack by EPA, although their success rate is a less impressive 45.1%. Their ground game is powered by a true three-pronged attack, as each of QB Riley Leonard and RBs Jadarian Price and Jeremiyah Love have rushed for over 700 yards this season and average over 5 yards per carry. Similarly to Ohio State, Jeremiyah is the standout among the group; you may remember his 98 yard scamper to open the scoring in this year's Playoff (and would have been sufficient to singlehandedly deliver the Irish the victory absent garbage time). The problem is that he, and the entire Notre Dame run game by extension, have been hobbled since being injured in the Georgia game. Love was a singular bright spot in the Penn State game, managing to grind out over 4 yards a carry and a heroic TD run, but the same Penn State rush D that was steamrolled by Henderson, Judkins, and Howard stood strong against the nation's ostensibly best rushing attack. Love sill need to be at his best for the Irish to have their best opportunities to move the ball.

3. Turnover a New Shamrock

How do you keep up with a team with a fast firing offense? Steal a few possessions back via turnover. Nobody does this better than the Irish, who have absconded with 32 total takeaways in 15 games. That's one better than Texas, who played 16, and thirteen better than Ohio State. And both teams have lost the same number of turnovers in return. Ohio State has managed to best, and even turn(over) the tables on, some of the other top turnover margin teams in Indiana and Iowa, and the aforementioned ball-hawking Texas. But the Buckeyes have two losses this year, and they turned the ball over twice in both.

4. You Guys Don't Give Up

After comfortably controlling each of its first two Playoff games, the Irish found themselves in a 10-0 hole to Penn State that persisted until a field goal closing the half chipped into Penn State's lead. Notre Dame fought back, gained the lead, lost the lead again, and rallied once more to win on a field goal in the final seconds. Ohio State fought through a similar deficit against Penn State but never trailed in the second half. The Buckeyes haven't trailed in the Playoff for a second, and in their two losses, they never trailed to Oregon by more than 1 point or Michigan by more than 7. If this game comes down to the wire, one of these teams hasn't cracked since a bizarre giveaway game against Northern Illinois.

5. Heart of a Buckeye

Of course, this culture starts at the top, and the Irish seem to have finally found their man in former Buckeye linebacker Marcus Freeman. Freeman's had his share of speed bumps, including headscratching losses to Marshall, Stanford, and Northern Illinois. But he's led the Irish to their first major bowl wins since their New Year's 1994 consolation prize against Texas A&M. Brian Kelly was a step in the right direction, putting Notre Dame firmly back in national title contention after wandering the desert under Weis, Willingham, Davie, and even late Lou Holtz. But Freeman has proven that Notre Dame's record is not just the product of a weak regular season schedule; the Irish have hung with and dispatched the best the Playoff has to offer.

Week 18: Ewers Discretion Advised

Standings:

1.) Draper 51-18 (2-12 upset)
2.) Hoying 50-19 (3-11 upset)
3.) Seeberg 49-20 (3-11 upset)
4.) Schweinfurth 46-23 (1-13 upset)

You wanted championship access for the little guy? You wanted Cinderella stories of the underdog snakebiting a top dog on the way to the top? Then you came to the wrong place; in all the storied 11-year history of the College Football Playoff, there haven't been a more blue-blooded final four than you'll see this year. Enjoy the combined wisdom of the Let's Go Bucks! crew before you sit glued to your TV screen like Stu Pickles.

THURSDAY, JANUARY 9

Orange Bowl: Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions

Draper: As the semis were set, I was pretty confident in my picks for the title, but continuing to look at the Orange Bowl, I've become more conflicted.  Let me be clear: I don't think either of these teams are near the level of Ohio State or Oregon (or maybe Texas).  Notre Dame was one of the hottest teams entering the playoff and have continued their pace, but Penn State has looked good as well.  The issue was the competition.  Notre Dame dumped an overrated IU team (but the final score was closer than expected) and outclassed a depleted UGA team by killing it in the middle 8 with turnovers and special teams.  Penn State easily dispatched SMU and played a solid game against Boise State, but does anyone really care? This game is similar to the Sugar Bowl in which I expect a low scoring ugly slugfest.  Both defenses are stout with questionable offenses.  Love is banged up for the Irish, but Abdul Carter being a question mark evens the score.  Both QB's are fine, but nothing special.  After all is said and done, I going to stick with my initial instinct with the Irish (although I'm getting little voices telling me to be careful).  James Franklin always wins when favored and always loses when an underdog (last win as an underdog was 2021 and before that was 2016 vs OSU).  I guess it's a foregone conclusion... Here come the Irish.  ND: 20--PSU:17
Hoying: As we all predicted preseason, Notre Dame and Penn State are on the doorstep of a national championship appearance. And they’re doing it with some of the poorest QB play in the Playoff (Will Howard haters at FOX Sports notwithstanding). Fortunately, each team would rather run the ball than throw, Penn State because they have no receivers and Notre Dame because…er…their quarterback can’t throw. Riley Leonard can run though, and he put up a tidy 80 yards to pace the Irish against Georgia in the quarterfinals. Whom did Penn State play in the quarterfinals again? Oh, right, nobody, just like the nobody they played in the first round. Now that could work to their advantage, as they haven’t had to give any of their playoff prep away in snoozers against SMU and Boise State (no, the Lions were never going to lose that game). But I still don’t have a great deal of faith in James Franklin. Beating SMU and Boise isn’t beating the allegations, as the only two games Frames played this year on the level of Notre Dame were the two that Penn State lost. One because they couldn’t move the ball (Ohio State), and the other because they couldn’t stop their opponent (Oregon). Expect this game to look a lot more like the former than the latter, as ND continues to pitch gem after gem on defense (except against USC, but whoopsie, guess who also gave up a million points to the Trojans). Drew Allar simply doesn’t have it in him or the support around him to put the team on his shoulders with the game on the line, and when all else fails, sit back and wait for James Franklin to do something stupid. At least once this Thursday, expect the Hill Kitties to make those Georgia idiots who jumped offsides on Notre Dame’s fake punt look like the finest football minds this side of Let’s Go Bucks! ND: 24—PSU: 20
Schweinfurth: This game is two teams who play great defense, and two teams who play miserable offense. Both teams have good running backs and questionable quarterbacks. Penn State at least has Tyler Warren. Coaching advantage has to go to Notre Dame because James Franklin pees his pants in big games. **whispers** This is a big game. This feels like a 60 minute rock fight. Notre Dame lives off of turnovers. They turned Georgia over to death in the Sugar Bowl. I expect more of the same. Irish win. ND: 17--PSU: 14
Seeberg:  The year is 2019.  You're at Vegas and a hot streak at the blackjack table left you itching to put a few big chips on a college football bet.  Then you see a futures bet that makes you laugh out loud:  James Franklin wins two or more playoff games in his career at Penn State.  +50000.  You chuckle again.  Man, this is how Vegas makes their money eh?  I have no idea if that was a real bet on the board back then, but it sure sounds about right.  Somehow, Penn State managed to win TWO playoff games.  That said, both teams were outside the top 10 so, really, given their cupcake draw, it's not particularly surprising.  Things get markedly more difficult for Franklin when he plays a top 5 opponent, and Notre Dame fits that bill.  To me, Notre Dame feels like Ohio State lite.  Very good but not great defense and, at least in the regular season, very good but not great offense.  Ohio State, however, has risen almost exponentially on offense and stayed elite on D, and Notre Dame still looks like, well, Notre Dame.  Very good defense, and just enough points to make it hard for teams to hang for four quarters.  Meanwhile, Penn State was spotted 10 points at home against the Buckeyes this year and managed a whopping 1 FG the rest of the way.  Scoring 6 offensive points against the best defense you saw all year is a pretty poor omen (though they inexplicably dropped 37 on Oregon- which is when the Ducks' alarm bells should've sounded before playing the scarlet and gray again).  Both teams will struggle to score, which is a product of ND's middling offense and PSU's awful offensive coaching.  It feels like a very similar game to the OSU/PSU tilt in Happy Valley this year, so why not the same score.  Notre Dame advances to the title game.  ND: 20--PSU: 13

FRIDAY, JANUARY 10

Cotton Bowl: THE Ohio State University Buckeyes vs. Texas Longhorns

Draper: Another massive match for 2 teams that have been in the top 5 all season.  The Buckeyes are playing at a clip that the world hasn't seen in a long time.  If they continue this dominance, the CFP is over as no one is touching this squad at this level.  However, Texas has the athletes and coaches to muddy the waters.  Everyone is focused on the explosive Buckeye offense, but the real accolades should fall on Jim Knowles and the Silver Bullets who have been untouchable.  While Jeremiah Smith is a certified cheat code, Howard is playing off the charts, Egbuka, Tate, and Scott are spreading the field, and Judkins/Henderson are providing the 1-2 punch; the defense has stifled everything since the first meeting with Oregon in October.  Texas's defense will have some wrinkles for the Buckeyes as this is one of the best defenses we've faced all year, but I don't see how the Horns are going to outscore this juggernaut.  The path to success for the Horns is turnovers and special teams with a little Sark magic sprinkled on top.  If the Bucks play sound/turnover free football and Day/Kelly keep the defense on their heels in both the run and passing game, I just don't see the Longhorns scoring enough to match.  Ewers has had moments of brilliance but also some real headscratchers.  I wouldn't want to need my best game of the year against this ball-hawking defense.  Downs and Simon will remove the running game so if the corners can hold up, it should be the Buckeyes headed to Atlanta.  OSU: 30--UT: 13
Hoying: Is it possible for a top-five matchup against a team that was an unfavorable overtime period away from being the SEC champion to be a letdown game? The Buckeyes are fresh off of goosing the #1 team in the country, and while the advanced stats still like Texas a bit more than Oregon, it almost feels like the denouement to the 2024 season is already setting in. I’m sure that anyone in Buckeye Nation who remembers Quinn Ewers skipping town (especially Rick Ricart) doesn’t need any extra motivation, as his departure destroyed our post-CJ succession plan and made us rely on the merely very good Kyle McCord and a transfer QB. But that transfer QB has seen Texas before, and he hasn’t beaten them in 4 tries, including an overtime thriller last season. Howard has been playing like a man possessed this postseason, and he’s been given the green light to throw it up to Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka wherever they are on the field, single, double, or triple covered. Ryan Day has seized back control of the offense after the Michigan debacle and it’s going to be all gas no brakes from here on out. Texas is one of the few teams in the country with the horses in the secondary to make Howard pay on an errant throw, but then they’ll be faced with the problem of what to do when Quinn Ewers has the ball. The Longhorns’ scripted drives to start their two Playoff games have been works of art, but the Horns got bogged down against Arizona State until some 4th and 13 magic in overtime saved their season. If the Silver Bullet defense that suffocated Oregon shows up Friday night, Texas will struggle to get anything going. Look for some more spilling and killing, Caleb Downs roaming the middle of the field like Darth Maul waiting for Qui-Gon Jinn, and Jack Sawyer fighting off bear hug after bear hug to make Ewers’ day a living nightmare. There’s no Quan Cosby to bail you out late this time. OSU: 31—UT: 20
Schweinfurth: I feel pretty confident going into this game. The shackles have come off the offense and the defensive line is playing at an elite level. This feels like the 2014 team all over again. Big plays on offense with a suffocating defense. Jack Sawyer seems possessed. JJ Smith can't be covered. The running backs are hitting big chunk runs. The team we've seen the last two weeks is unbeatable. Seriously. The Rose Bowl could have been so much worse if Downs catches any of 3 (!) potential INTs. I don't really know what Texas tries to stop. Their only hope is to control the line of scrimmage with 4 lineman and pray that holds. Defensively, Knowles just need to keep calling the same plan and get home on Ewers. Hit him early and often. I'm sure Texas will try to go with the quick hitters to keep him upright, but Downs was all over that against Oregon. Ohio State is a pissed off team. Good luck America. OSU: 38--UT: 20
Seeberg: I am now, after two near-perfect playoff performances, 100% convinced that Ryan Day was doing his best Muhammad Ali impression all season long.  Playing rope a dope.  Milking the play clock, limiting the plays and the physical toll on his team.  Rotating lots of guys, even defensively the second half of the year.  All that just to peak at the right time and come out of the corner swinging, and right now, you can't argue with it.  The horrid game against TTUN is a product of his Cooper-like unfamiliarity with it being an out-of-Midwesterner.  Cooper's teams, however, also frequently laid eggs in bowl games, and this is clearly not the case with Day as he's already won 3 playoff games and a Rose Bowl.  The Longhorns roll in with a great defense and an...offense?  Quinn Ewers may have been a perfect-rated prospect, but he's not progressed nearly as much as most thought.  Perhaps he should've stayed in Columbus?  Regardless, he'll have to content with Jim Knowles' D that's calling all the right numbers.  The only clear mistake in his game plan against Tennessee was using a DE, usually Tuimoluau, as a spy against their mobile QB.  Simon took on those duties and was masterful, rarely letting Gabriel escape the pocket and closing like a freight train on his two sacks.  Ewers is far less mobile than Gabriel or Iamaleava, so that shouldn't be a concern, meaning Knowles can either bring 5 or drop 7.  Scary prospect either way.  Personally I'd love to see a zone blitz where the DE drops in front of a slant route.  Worked pretty well against Arkansas in "the game that didn't count because tattoos" and again in the Sugar Bowl against Bama where Steve Miller took it back to the house.  Either way, even if this performance is only near-near-perfect, both sides of the ball (and even 2/2 on field goals last week woohoo!)  are just clicking too well.  Bucks coast to the natty.  OSU: 38--UT: 23