Week 5: B1G Dogs and SECond Fiddles

Standings:

1.) Hoying 11-4 (1-3 upset)
1.) Schweinfurth 11-4 (0-4 upset)
3.) Draper 10-5 (1-3 upset)
4.) Seeberg 9-6 (2-2 upset)

Four of the top contenders in the Big Ten are on the road facing stiff opposition this week (sorry, Indiana, you were left off the list this time), while America's erstwhile premier conference has their own sorting out to do down south.

Southern California Trojans @ Illinois Fighting Illini
Draper: Can Bert and Co. rebound from the absolute whooping they received last week? USC is an interesting team in that they MIGHT have something going in the City of Angels.  I think it's a bit premature to plan on the ascendency of the Trojans yet based on the (lack of) competition, but there might be some juice.  The Illini get to return home, but I don't know how to ignore what I saw last week.  The lack of fundamental tackling was appalling.  I'll keep the Trojans with the 0 in the loss column....for now.  USC: 30--Ill: 20
Hoying: In case the whining from Los Angeles hasn't reached you yet, USC closed out the week 4 action in the wee Sunday hours and now gets the day kicked off at 9 AM Pacific this Saturday. That won't seriously impact prep time but it is a symptom of life in the Atlantic and Pacific Coast Conference. However, it will take more than body clock recalibrating to slow down the Trojan offense. USC hasn't looked this lethal since Matt Leinart was handing the ball off to Reggie Bush. Now, you can say, "What about the defense?" but I don't recall USC giving up 63 points to anyone this season. I expect the Illini to bounce back at home, especially against a porous Trojan defense, but USC is just too explosive to wind up with the low score here. USC: 31--Ill: 27
Schweinfurth: I actually got to watch the IU/Ill game last week. Man, Bert's defense was absolutely exposed. It wasn't just guys running wide open down the field, they were chasing ghosts. Not to say USC is a world beater this year, they aren't. But they have to be better than whatever corpse the Illini are rolling into this game with. USC: 35--Ill: 17
Seeberg: What a slate this week! Let’s dive in. Bert got massively exposed in Bloomington last week. This year’s Indiana will not be the Illini (might just be Indiana again). At any rate, you know Lincoln Riley is licking his chops to get at this suddenly porous Illinois D. To be fair, Luke Altmeyer and Co will likely score more than 10 against USC’s mid D, but I don’t see them hanging for four quarters against superior talent. Trojans pull away late. USC: 38—Ill: 27

Louisiana State Tigers @ Mississippi Rebels
Draper: This is a really interesting game.  The national media continues to crown the Tigers based on their week 1 win over #4 Clemson.  Sadly, the 1-3 Tigers are more kittens at this point.  The win over UF was a good one, but a lot of that credit goes to Lagway giving them the rock FIVE times (and even then, they never pulled away).  Ole Miss is going to be the first real test for the LSU defense.  Kiffikins will keep up the pressure, but I can never tell if this is the week Ole Miss faceplants. I think it's early in the season, the offense is strong enough to bend the Tigers, and it's in The Grove.  With that, I'll lean on the Rebs to pull out a big W and enter the playoff conversation.  LSU: 24--Miss: 31
Hoying: Remember in week 1, when the SEC heads were scrambling on a team to crown after Texas stumbled, and they all coalesced around LSU after their "dominant" win over Clemson? You could say that may have been a bit of an overreaction, and you'd be right, but Kirk Herbstreit had LSU as his #1 team last week. Judging by how Miami jumped up to #2 last week, I suppose beating Florida is going to count as a quality win for about 10 different teams this year. What were we talking about again? Oh yes, overrated LSU. It's not like Ole Miss has been setting the world on fire either, struggling to put away mediocre Kentucky and Arkansas. But much like the matchup above, one of these teams is much more consistent on offense than the other, and you don't have to guess which team that is when Lane Kiffin is involved. Yes, the LSU defense has been successful, but their suffocating performance against Florida was largely turnover-driven. And as anyone who watched the 2006 Ohio State Buckeyes can tell you, turnover-driven defenses work until they don't. Ole Miss hasn't been particularly careful with the football, but they're generally so efficient with their drives that it doesn't really matter. I expect the Rebs to do enough to further dent the Heisman campaign of another disgraced preseason favorite, Garrett Nussmeier, and the home team to do enough to walk away with the W here. LSU: 24--Miss: 30
Schweinfurth: I have watched ZERO SEC football this year outside of Texas/Ohio State. What I do know is that LSU is a bit of a paper tiger waiting to be exposed. At some point it will happen. Why not this week. LSU: 20--Miss: 35
Seeberg: Ooof. Not a fan of this matchup of mid-SEC teams. Yeah, I said it. Ole Miss beat those SEC juggernauts Arkansas and Kentucky by a combined 13 points. Not to be outdone, LSU beat how-haven’t-they-been-fired-yet Dabo and Billy Napier by just 17 points total. I also trust neither of these coaches in big games. Neither has won anything of consequence, and Kiffin was the OC who inexplicably stopped giving Derrick Henry the ball in the Sugar Bowl (thanks, from Buckeye Nation). For LSU, in a year chock full of mediocre QB play around the country, Nussmeyer still hasn’t separated himself from the pack. In the end, I think the Rebels’ rushing attack (if Kiffin uses it) with Kewan Lacy may be able to control the clock and limit the Tigers’ possessions. Get ready for a top 8 Lane Kiffin squad. Ugh. LSU: 17—Miss: 24

Oregon Ducks @ Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions
Draper: The marquee game is in Happy Valley this week and the Lions finally get their whiteout game against a good team. PSU is only 13-8 in whiteout games (which is a little low), but they've won the last 6 (although that includes 'juggernauts' of Minnesota, SMU in the playoff, Washington last year).  Not surprisingly, the last loss was against the Buckeyes in 2018 (before the rising of Big Noon).  However, I will note that that is a TOUGH environment to work through (see 2005).  Both teams have steamrolled their competition, but that was expected with the garbage in the non-conference.  This is a big test for Dante Moore and a (relatively) young Oregon team.  They're used to the spotlight, but Happy Valley will be extremely difficult at night.  The Lions have James Franklin and Drew Allar so they're not invincible, but the environment coupled with a decent night of game management from Allar will yield the first big PSU regular season win in the Franklin era since....2016 OSU on a blocked kick.  Franklin will try to mess it up, but the Lions get it done.  The all-in strategy still lives. UO: 24--PSU: 27
Hoying: The Buckeyes' opponent this week, though undefeated, is not only unranked, but didn't get a single vote in the AP poll. "Big deal", you say, "they haven't played anybody yet." Oh yeah? Check out this murderer's row of Oregon and Penn State's opponents: Montana State, Oklahoma State, Northwestern, Oregon State, Nevada, FIU, Villanova. These teams have a combined ONE win over another FBS team (FIU over FAU), and yet these teams are both ranked in the top 6. Granted, both of them have looked really good (well, Oregon has), and both of them were supposed to compete for a title this year (well, Penn State was), but this is first time either is facing anything resembling a real test. When these two teams faced off in Indianapolis last season, Penn State ran wild up and down the field, but Drew Allar was merely OK while Dillon Gabriel was surgical. Now, Drew Allar has a senior's experience but Dante Moore is no spring chicken, and despite all of the Penn State glazing in the offseason I'm sure the latter has a higher ceiling than the former. It's tough to play at your best in White Out conditions but at least the Ducks can count on Big Game James to do something stupid with the outcome on the line (Chase Young sends his regards). Either way, the winner will have Indiana to worry about later this season, but the Ducks move into the driver's seat to challenge Ohio State for the big time prize once again. Ore: 31--PSU: 30
Schweinfurth: Guys, Drew Allar is NOT good. There is no way a Penn State team with that QB play should be ranked this high. And James Franklin still coaches the Nittany Kitties. The White Out factor is real, but it won't make up the QB talent gap. OU: 31--PSU: 17
Seeberg: I absolutely refuse to dig into any top 10 matchup involving Penn State until Franklin wins one. Ducks dub. OU: 27—PSU: 17

Alabama Crimson Tide @ Georgia Bulldogs
Draper: Honestly, this game is the top game of the week nearly every year, but it is overshadowed a touch by the showdown in Happy Valley and Bama's perceived fall from grace.  Regardless, Sanford Stadium will be rocking between the hedges and the Tide looks to reascend to the mountaintop.  UGA remains the new standard of SEC excellence since the departure of Saban, but I think Kirby's perch is getting a tad shaky.  Don't get me wrong: the Dawgs are a very good team, but I don't think the talent differential is that great between UGA and the rest of the SEC.  The UT game exposed some flaws in that defense and Austin Peay kept it much closer than expected (Let's Go Peay!).  Bama seems to be powering up after being embarrassed by my Noles in week 1.  The bettors like Georgia, but I'm going to lean on the power rankings and pick the Tide to get a HUGE road win and temper some of the heat on Deboer.  Ryan Williams and Ty Simpson will have a game and, once again, remind Kirby who the big dog is in the SEC.  Bama: 27--UGA: 24
Hoying: Many elite coaches have that one team that, for whatever reason, they struggle to beat. Jim Tressel had Wisconsin, Urban Meyer had Michigan State, Ryan Day why are you wasting your time reading this, and Kirby Smart is eternally flummoxed by Alabama. The Tide may be foundering a bit in the Kalen DeBoer era, but they still found time to beat Georgia last year, and the Dawgs didn't look terribly impressive in stealing a win from Tennessee last week either. UGA was absolutely gashed through the air in Knoxville, and that doesn't bode well for facing the pass-happy Tide and the best receiver south of the Mason-Dixon Line. Who will step up to be the SEC's standard bearer this season? Bama: 34--UGA: 28
Schweinfurth: I don't think Bama is very good. Georgia is better, but not by much. Bama: 21--UGA 31
Seeberg: Well here we are again. Kirby’s nemesis. Though, to be fair, Bama ran college football with Saban at the helm. One has to think Smart’s 1-6 record against the Tide will improve now, right? Perhaps not. Bama has looked, well, like Bama since an opening week loss to a resurgent Seminole squad. Ty Simpson has been solid, with similar numbers to Gunnar. However, it’s the run game that may separate these two. UGA has 4 players with over 100 yards rushing this season and Bama isn’t even averaging 125 ypg. Between the hedges, I expect the Bulldogs to control the flow of the game and get Kirby his second W against the Tide. Bama: 20—UGA: 27

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Washington Huskies
Draper: I'm a bit bearish on the Buckeyes this weekend.  I do think we get the win (spoiler alert), but there are a few concerns.  Husky Stadium is a tough place to play and the UW faithful really believe their team is a contender.  Whether or not this is the case, the belief will ratchet up the pressure if the Buckeyes don't start hot.  B1G eastern teams have struggled on the West Coast, but I don't know how much is simply homefield vs travel.  The Husky offense is pretty darn good and will challenge the Buckeye secondary who showed a few gaps against Texas that Manning (thankfully) handed right into the ground.  Finally, this is Sayin's first road start.  Anyone's first start is tough, but a (redshirt) freshman on the road in a tough environment is a tall order. I'm hoping the offense can be methodical and matriculate the ball down the field will a couple haymakers to Smith and Tate (and maybe a little running game....please....more Bo?), and the defense can shut down the Huskies early.  If we get into a hole early, it will be tough to get out.  The good news? The Bucks are the more talented team by a healthy margin.  Play your game, don't be dumb, and we'll escape the West Coast unscathed. OSU: 27--UW: 17
Hoying: As stated above, the Huskies are not ranked, not even receiving a single vote in the AP poll. This may be a product of having played Colorado State, Washington State, and Nobody FCS so far, but they've looked the part ever since being tied with CSU halfway through the third quarter of the opener. You'd think an undefeated team two years removed from the CFP National Championship Game would garner a bit more respect. But I just don't think the  Huskies' early season pattern will hold against a team as talented and well coached as Ohio State. Washington has a very narrow path to victory, and it requires leaning hard on dual threat QB Demond Williams and his killer RB - WR combo of Jonah Coleman and David Denzel Boston. But gone are the bad old days of the Silver Bullets letting one pesky player win the game all on his own (looking at you, Rondale Moore and almost Anthony McFarland). Besides, on the other side of the ball, UW is dealing with multiple injuries, and they aren't that stout of a defensive unit to begin with. My only concern is in the red zone and short yardage situations. Last year was the first time in the modern Day era that I felt confident the Buckeyes could consistently gain a yard when they absolutely needed to, and while the jury is still out on this season, I haven't been impressed with the results so far. If that means making Lincoln Kienholz the red zone specialist, then by all means do it! Work some of that Chip Kelly magic and don't be afraid to make the QB a weapon in the run game as well. Although, if Julian Sayin and the standard Brian Hartline death squad continue to have the success with the deep ball that they've been having (and they should against this Washington defense), I'm not sure it will matter just yet. Buckeyes take the loud body blows in Seattle but come out no worse for the wear. OSU: 34--UW: 17
Schweinfurth: The Husky offense feels legit. It feels better than what we saw out of the Longhorns. They've punted twice! This is a step up in competition for Washington, but it is also the first road test for Sayin. He's looked good this year and is the most accurate passer in CFB. The Bucks can stretch the field, but they can also pound it. Washington NEEDS this game to be a shootout to say in it. I think the score reflects this, but the Bucks pull away late. Bo Jackson breaks another big one and JJ Smith keeps moving toward that Heisman. OSU: 35--UW: 24

Seeberg: Quite frankly, as much as I do think the Huskies are woefully underrated (east coast bias might be real), I’m sick of hearing about how great they are. All I’ve heard on every show and from every talking head is how great their offense is and what a test it will be. Fine, cool. Anyone notice the other half of the coin? The Washington D is middling at best, and they’re out a starting LB and potentially their number 2 corner. AND they play primarily man. AND Sayin is leading the nation in completion percentage. AND Jeremiah Smith is an alien. We will certainly get some stops, and I just don’t expect their defense to hang for four quarters. Bucks open it up and win going away. OSU: 38—UW: 20

Upset Special

Draper: Iowa over Indiana
Hoying: Auburn over Texas A&M
Schweinfurth: Colorado over BYU
Seeberg: Mississippi State over Tennessee

Week 4: The Playoff Push Begins

Standings:

1.) Draper 8-2 (1-2 upset)
2.) Seeberg 7-3 (1-2 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 7-3 (0-3 upset)
4.) Hoying 6-4 (1-2 upset)

Conference play begins in earnest across the landscape (well, not so much in the ACC), and a lot of early season 3-0 hopefuls are squaring off in the hopes of positioning themselves as early front-runners to grab one of 12 lucrative Playoff berths. September may be for pretenders, but we'll soon find out whose make believe journey will crash and burn before October even arrives.

Texas Tech Red Raiders @ Utah Utes
Draper: The Big 12 feels like a grab-bag week in and week out.  Along with Iowa State, these two teams are the frontrunners in the conference game, and this week could go a long way to deciding the Big 12 Championship Game appearance.  Texas Tech is the new hotness with that oil money being dumped in, but old stalwart Utah looks pretty good.  Devon Dampier has been solid at QB and I think he's the difference.  Rice Eccles is rocking for a Big Noon game, but the Utes QB leads the team to victory.  TTU: 24--Utah: 31
Hoying: These two teams have looked fantastic so far against a six-pack of wet paper sacks. And Big 12 conference play hasn't even started yet, wait until they get to play the teams that lost to Ohio and Army. Utah was a heavy favorite to win the first edition of the new-look Big 12 last season before heavily faceplanting down the stretch, while TTU hasn't challenged for a conference title since Michael Crabtree shocked Longhorn Nation all the way back in 2008. But the winner of this game should be in the driver's seat for the climb atop the nation's least prestigious "major" conference. The Utes stumbled out to a close halftime lead last week against Wyoming before pulling away for a comfortable win in the second half (sounds familiar), while Texas Tech has scored at least 45 straight points to open all 3 of their games so far this year (looks like that NIL war chest is paying off already). I like the Red Raiders to keep rolling on the road. TTU: 34--Utah: 28
Schweinfurth: I saw a stat that Texas Tech was one of the top defenses in the country. That's a far cry from the Mike Leach Air Raid days. Past that, I need to go with my instinct. Texas Tech wins. TTU: 30--Utah 17
Seeberg: I’m not going to act like an expert on either of these teams. What I do know, however, is that the Utes are a tough matchup at home, and though total talent may be on the side of the Red Raiders, the cohesiveness year over year at Utah is rare these days, and it will show up late in a close, entertaining win. TTU: 27–Utah: 31

Auburn Tigers @ Oklahoma Sooners
Draper: Jackson Arnold....REVENGE.  There is so much said about Auburn due to his acquisition, but they've been pretty mid thus far (against garbage).  At least OU put together a win against TTUN...even though they did everything in their power to blow it.  Mateer directed a nice offensive attack and the Sooner defense was lights out (if they laid off the dumb penalties).  If they can play a clean game, that Venables D is a scary sight.  Add to it that it's in Norman and I think Hugh Freeze and the Tigahs get a dose of reality in the new SEC.  Aub: 10--OU: 20
Hoying: Welcome to the Jackson Arnold Bowl. After a disastrous 2024 for the Sooners which saw him finish with a dreadful QBR of 47.9 (including a 1.2 in a 25-15 loss to Tennessee), the cast-off QB has found happy landings at Auburn, where he's quietly put together a better young season than OU's shiny new Heisman candidate transfer QB John Mateer. Now, Arnold is doing this against teams like Baylor while Mateer had to face Michigan (who, in all fairness, looked lost on defense against OU), but it's still odd to see a QB leave Oklahoma and get dramatically better. We're not in the Bob Stoops / Lincoln Riley era anymore, folks. But, on the other side of the ball, the Brent Venables era seems to have finally reached Norman, as the Sooner defense has been stifling so far this season after a few false starts. OU put Bryce Underwood in a blender and I wouldn't be surprised to see them do the same to their old rock-slinger. Sooners stay deep in the hunt to challenge Georgia for the SEC title. Aub: 17--OU: 24
Schweinfurth: Oklahoma showed that Will Venables still knows how to play defense. Auburn, at least in my mind, is still lost since everyone can pay players now. Shocking, I know. OU wins close. Aub: 13--OU: 17
Seeberg: I’m tired of seeing 90% of the SEC ranked. Auburn needs to lose this game solely for that reason, because OU would stay ranked with a loss (quality losses ftw!). The Sooners have officially embraced the SEC by playing defense finally, and that D will be just good enough…giggity. Aub: 20—OU: 27

Tulane Green Wave @ Mississippi Rebels
Draper: Both teams enter undefeated, but neither has looked particularly sharp.  Ole Miss eked out 2 SEC wins against meh competition, but those 2 wins are much more solid than whatever Tulane has rolled out.  Tulane is the sneaky team for Group of 5 consideration and this is the game to cement their spot on the top of the pile.  However, I don't think they have the athletes to hang in this one.  Even if the Rebs start the backup QB (as presumed), the Wave need some magic to swing this at the Grove.  BYU transfer Jake Retzlaff is a decent talent, but the line play delivers another win for the SEC.  Tul: 16--Miss: 34
Hoying: I know, I know, this seems like a bit of a mismatch to put on here, but Tulane has a habit of making people (me) look like fools when they're underestimated. Ole Miss starting QB Austin Simmons may be out with an injury for a second week in a row, and while Trinidad Chambliss was no slouch in relief last week, the Rebs still struggled to put away Arkansas, and this was after letting Kentucky hang around all game the week prior. Tulane has taken care of business against Northwestern and Duke (who, in all fairness, might both be really bad) behind a decent offense and a serviceable defense, but they haven't seen anything like what Ole Miss is about to throw at them. No need to overthink this one. The Green Wave's path the the Playoff still runs through the AAC Championship. Tul: 17--Miss: 31
Schweinfurth: Again, this is an instinct pick for me. File it under, I've haven't had enough time to actually much football so far. Ole' Miss wins. Tul: 20--Miss: 35
Seeberg: Good news: Tulane is good, and feisty. Bad news, they’re good enough that Kiffin won’t allow his Ole Miss squad to overlook them. That will happen later this season to a random nonsensical SEC team. Rebels pull away. Tul: 20—Miss: 38

Michigan Wolverines @ Nebraska Cornhuskers
Draper: What is Michigan this year? What is Nebraska this year? Does anybody really know what time it is? I honestly have no clue.  Underwood looked like a deer in headlights in Norman and 'batman' against powerhouse Central Michigan.  Will Nebraska under Matt Rhule and Dylan Raiola ever deliver? The biggest issue for the maize and blue is that their defense isn't the monster we saw the last few years.  While the offense took a slight step forward with Justice Haynes and an upgrade at QB, the defense has regressed after so much talent went to the league.  This will come down to whether or not Nebraska can be competent on offense.  If Nebraska can stay ahead of the sticks and not shoot themselves in the foot, they might finally get a decent win for the first time in what feels like 10 years.  Flip a coin, but I'm guessing Underwood still isn't ready for the road and the Huskers win (?) a close game.  UM: 20--Neb: 23
Hoying: This is it, Nebraska. If you want to prove you belong back at the big boy table, it's time to finally beat an opponent with a pulse, something the Huskers arguably haven't done since snakebiting 2015 Playoff participant Michigan State Spartans. Then again, it's possible that the Wolverines are fraudulent this year as well. Sure, they looked great pummeling Central Michigan by a margin of 60 last week (take that, two-timing Connor Stalions), but they looked utterly lost on both sides of the ball the week prior in Norman. I'm not ready to declare last year an aberrant season for Michigan, or to herald Bryce Underwood as the next big thing, but I'll believe the Cornhuskers are back when I see it, and not a moment before. Don't be surprised if they limp along to lackluster losses to USC and Penn State along the way to another mediocre bowl berth. Plus, Sherrone Moore is still sidelined for this game, so the maize and blue can't help but overperform for one more week. Let's just hope his single suspended game next year isn't against us. UM: 27--Neb: 20
Schweinfurth: I can't pick Nebraska until they can actually win one of these games. Seriously, I have no faith in the Huskers to win big games, ESPECIALLY if they are close. This smells like a one score game to me. So the Huskers and wannabe Mahomes lose close again. UM: 20--Neb: 17
Seeberg: With the LARGE caveat that UM isn’t a “big” win, it feels like Nebraska has had several of these games to return to, at least second-tier national prominence over the past 20 years and just fallen flat on their face every time. Remarkably, two 5-star QBs headline this one (welcome to the NIL era officially). Underwood, however, looked dreadful in his first road test and I just don’t think they have the weapons to beat anyone of consequence. I’m not convinced the Huskers are in that category, but this W would go a long way towards it. Raiola leads a FG drive late and Underwood can’t match it. UM: 20—Neb: 23

Illinois Fighting Illini @ Indiana Hoosiers

Draper: I'm actually surprised this isn't Gameday....  UF/UM is a nice 'rivalry' (kind of), but Florida is a Jekyll and Hyde team while we all hold our breath for the Beck collapse. This is a big time game in which we'll find if either of these teams is going to step up to be this year's....Indiana? Bert has people really drinking the Illini Kool Aid after the win over the Gamecocks in bowl season, but best guess is that these teams are actually both pretty mid 15-25 ranked teams that will bluster until they play someone of note (see IU last year).  Cignetti was very smart grabbing that money as soon as possible because keeping IU relevant will be a monumental task.  The QB transfer of MENDOZAAAAA has slung it nicely for the crimson while Altmyer has been fine for what seems like forever.  Neither team has played anyone (at all) so we'll out at least one of these teams as pretenders here.  I'm pretty surprised that the Hoosiers are favored by nearly a TD (and the line has moved more heavily in their favor.  Bloomington can be a little dangerous when IU believes (which they do), but at the end of the day, I lowkey think the Illini are better.  I'm going with boy genius Bert and hoping that he isn't able to fart this away.  Ill: 23--IU: 20
Hoying: And just like everyone foresaw, the biggest game of the day is between IU and UI (not even the Iowa version). You can say that Indiana is coasting on the fumes of last season's campaign in which they beat nobody of note and got blown out by both ranked teams they played, but the Hoosiers have been taking care of business against this year's awful teams after a slow start against Old Dominion. Illinois is ranked 10 spots higher thanks to little more than random guessing and hype from the college football media machine, but the Illini have looked the part as well outside of a shaky first half against Duke (who, again, might just be really bad). I'm not ready to call either of these teams a real contender for the Big Ten title (much like the teams immediately above) but the winner may be able to clog up the Big Ten rankings in the way that Indiana and Penn State did last year. As for the pieces on the field, Illinois will be missing a key defender as all-B1G DB Xavier Scott is out with an injury, which is bad news when you're facing Indiana's latest volcanic repeater transfer QB, the erstwhile Cal Bear Fernando Mendoza. I'll cut Indiana a break for losing to the two top ranked teams last season; I don't think their ceiling is losing to every ranked team they play. Curt Cignetti keeps it interesting for a couple more weeks before a rude awakening in Autzen. Ill: 24--Ind: 27
Schweinfurth: Indiana thinks they have the formula. Play a bunch of no name cupcakes in the non-conference and sneak into the playoffs. Smart, until they run into elite teams. Yes, the Hoosiers beat up on Indiana State. They should have. But going from that game to a ranked game isn't a step up, it's a flight to the moon. This feels like an Illini win to me. Ill: 28--IU: 24
Seeberg: Gosh this is a brutal pick…and incredibly an important one in the CFP landscape. Winner has a good track to be 2024 Indiana and snag that 4th B1G spot. Both have looked steady, but Bloomington isn’t exactly a brutal road environment. Bert has his team playing clean, and as good as I think Mendoza is, he may feel the need to press when he’s not playing Larry Bird’s FCS alma mater. One mistake too many gives the Illini a late W. Ill: 27—Ind: 23

Upset Special

Draper: Florida over Miami (gross on all fronts)

Hoying: Georgia State over Vanderbilt

Schweinfurth: Purdue over Notre Dame

Seeberg: Maryland over Wisconsin

Week 3: Bulls, Dawgs, Bobcats, and Irishmen

Standings:

1.) Draper 5-1 (1-1 upset)
2.) Seeberg 4-2 (1-1 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 4-2 (0-2 upset)
4.) Hoying 3-3 (1-1 upset)

After a couple weeks of one or two monster games flanked by legions of lesser matchups, week 3 brings some meat onto the table all Saturday long, including the young season's first premier matchup in conference play, and the potential for a preseason Playoff favorite to face elimination from contention in just their second game.

Georgia Bulldogs @ Tennessee Volunteers
Draper: Clear game of the week in Knoxville.  Is Bobby Hill able to recreate the magic of Rocky Top in year two? So far, the loss of Nico has appeared to be a blessing in disguise as they've destroyed the competition thus far.  The Dawgs have been less than inspiring thus far, but they've taken care of business. Neyland (Horseshoe South?) will certainly be insane which has led to a few famous upsets of the Tide, but the Bulldogs are still looking to prove they're in the small group of consistent contenders.  Stockton isn't super flashy, but I think he'll do enough to get a big road win to send give the Vols a dose of reality.  UGA: 24--UT: 20
Hoying: Sometimes a football is a literal football, and sometimes it's the metaphorical football held by Lucy while good old Charlie Brown runs up to try to kick it again. Tennessee hasn't beaten Georgia since Jauan Jennings caught a Hail Mary pass in the end zone wayyyy back in 2016. And the Georgia D seems to have learned its lesson since that last second failure, as the Vols have cracked 20 against the Bulldogs just once since then (UGA put up 44 in that game to make sure it was never in doubt). And this year, once again, the D in Dawg stands for defense, as a dominating performance against Austin Peay last weekend made up for a puzzlingly sputtering day on the other side of the ball. Tennessee, meanwhile, has been scoring in bunches (even without Squirrel White catching passes for them anymore) but has been a bit more porous on the other side of the ball. They say defense travels, particularly in the still-early stages of a season seeing both of these teams break in new QBs after their respective predecessors both (!) transferred out. Never mess with a streak until it's over. UGA: 24--UT: 17
Schweinfurth: Georgia feels like a sneaky good team. There hasn't been too much said to this point (then again, I haven't been able to watch much ball this year) about them. They are a good team. Just keep them off the roads. I'm not sure the Vols can hang here. UGA: 35--UT: 17
Seeberg: So the analytics, from what I’ve seen, have Tennessee favored in this one? I…feel hoodwinked. The Vols are certainly much improved under Heupel, but they haven’t yet stacked talent year over year like the Bulldogs. Neyland (south) may help to equalize things but until they prove they can win against a big boy other than that absurd shootout with Bama a few years back, I’m rolling with UGA- as long as the players aren’t driving the buses. UGA: 31—UT: 20

South Florida Bulls @ Miami Hurricanes
Draper: USF is the flavor of the month with 2 great wins to start the season, but there are still questions.  Boise may not be any good, and Napier is another level of stupid.  However, getting a win in the Swamp is no small task. Miami is living large after a nice win over the Irish in week one, but can they have consistent success? I'm not sold on the Carson Beck experiment, but, while USF is a fun story, I don't see it continuing.  Just look to the wise guys and the lack of respect given to the Bulls.  I tend to agree.  The convicts continue their top 10 pace...for now.  USF: 16--UM: 30
Hoying: Preseason polls are stupid, and early season polls are equally stupid. All week we've had to hear about how South Florida is the "most accomplished" team so far, based on beating two fringe top-25 teams that may not even be sniffing the rankings by season's end. Do we really think the Bulls have what it takes to hang with the mighty Miami Hurricanes after barely hanging on to an upset win over an overrated Florida team last week? No. They don't. Late game meltdowns against Notre Dame (who ended up ranked #2 last year, mind you) aside, the Hurricanes are still in early season maybe-this-is-their-year-for-real-this-time form. Don't get me wrong, I fully expect the U to faceplant at some point this season (maybe once they finally have to leave the state of Florida in November), but the Bulls don't have the horses to get it done this week. USF: 17--UM: 34
Schweinfurth: USF has been a great story to this point. I mean, who saw them beating two top 25 teams to start the year? I'm not sold on Boise and Florida may be really bad. Miami looks mostly competent again. At "home" with a veteran QB? Should be good for the Canes. USF: 21--UM: 38
Seeberg: Props to USF for cashing my upset pick last week, but now they’re ranked they get picked with the big games! The Gators were fraudulent (gotta be a “days til Napier gets canned” countdown clock somewhere in Gainesville), but the Hurricanes already have a top 10 win under their belt. I’m not convinced the Canes are title contenders; they’re good-to-very-good at just about everything but not quite elite anywhere. Still, that should be enough to end the Bulls’ remarkable start to the season. Beck and Co. pull away late. USF: 17—UM: 31

Texas A&M Aggies @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Draper: Is this a big game? I guess there's some name branded-ness here, but I don't really feel great about either team.  The Aggies are so very consistent and 8-4 is calling.  The Irish saw some flashes with Carr on the road in a near comeback in front of the 'raucous' South Florida crowd.  A home game is just what the youngster needs to right the ship.  Honestly, neither of these teams strike me as top contenders (except the Irish schedule is T-to the-RASH).  I wouldn't be shocked if an Irish win is the first in a string of 11 straight....until the playoffs.  Could A&M win? Absolutely.  Could they faceplant?  Of course.  Ride the roller coaster and see what happens.  I see a ground and pound game with Love followed by some key QB scrambles to elevate the Irish to victory.  TAMU: 20--ND: 27
Hoying: So about that late game meltdown...for the second game in a row, the Irish showed tremendous resolve in rallying late against an opponent that had been fully pummeling them to that point, but unlike in last year's CFP final, ND almost pulled off the comeback this time. The loss to Miami was forgivable, if disheartening, but now desperation mode should be setting in for the Irish. Unless USC continues their early season surge, Texas A&M might be the last ranked team on Notre Dame's schedule, which means that even if the Irish run off 10 straight wins following this week, a 10-2 record would likely leave them outside the CFP looking in. Do the Aggies have what it takes to deliver a good old fashioned September playoff knockout blow? Hard to say. Expectations were certainly higher for the Irish this year than for A&M, and the Aggies haven't looked dominant in early games against UTSA and Utah State. At least the run D tightened up a little against the Beehive State Aggies, because if Notre Dame ever remembers to just give the ball to Jeremiyah Love, TAMU could be in trouble. With their backs up against the wall, I expect Coach Freeman to put the Irish in position to make a statement and keep another season's championship hopes alive. TAMU: 20--ND: 23
Schweinfurth: These are two teams I have no feel for. The Irish are breaking in a new QB this year and the Aggies are an okay team? I'll take the home team on this, but close. TAMU: 17--ND: 20
Seeberg: Potential fraud alert for whoever loses this one! Last year the Irish won this one on the road, promptly lost to Northern Illinois, then went on a tear until they hit the Buckeye Buzzsaw in the title game. This season they already have a loss, however, and a second one could keep them out of the playoffs with a weak remaining schedule. Still…I mean does anyone think TAMU is legit or are they just masquerading as one of the perennially, unnecessarily ranked SEC teams? My bet is the latter. Golden Domers stay relevant this season at home. TAMU: 13—ND: 24

Ohio Bobcats @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: Welcome to that other team from the great state of Ohio.  They're riding high after beating the Eers (in Athens?!?) but Rich Rod doesn't inspire fear anymore.  The Bobcats are a step up from Grambling but a distant call from the Longhorns.  The biggest danger is complacency for the Scarlet and Gray, but I don't think this coaching staff will let that happen.  Sayin will have a nice game with 3 TDs through the air, but at least 1 pick.  The Bucks will try hard to get the run game going, but while we'll see some flashes, it still won't inspire.  I'd like to see a little more of Bo Jackson just to see what we have in the youngster.  JJ and Tate shine again and the Bullets continue their impressive start to the repeat campaign--hopefully dialing up some more pressure from the front seven.  Wash. Rinse. Repeat. OU: 10--OSU: 47
Hoying: Hey, everybody, the Ohio Bobcats beat the West Virginia Mountaineers last week! That puts them in a very special club called...everyone! Seriously, good for the Bobcats to bounce back after losing a heartbreaker in the opener to Rutgers. Senior QB Peter Navarro willed OU to a victory behind his three INTs. OK, he also put up 87 yards on the ground, so the Silver Bullets are going to have to be on their toes for this one. The good news is that if Jim Knowles was the mad scientist for the Buckeye defense, Matt Patricia has been a veritable Ms. Frizzle out of the gates with the exotic looks he's deployed to flummox Texas and Grambling alike. That being said, the one unit that hasn't seen a lot of production over the first two weeks has been the defensive ends. Rock and Roll McDonald has been doing more than his share in the middle of the line but the losses of Buckeye fixtures Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau have been keenly felt over the past couple of weeks. Of course, with Julian Sayin being capable of hitting every throw on the field, and his O-line giving him all day to throw (even against Texas) the Bucks can afford to give up a few points, maybe even their first red zone score of the year. But I wouldn't worry about this one being close. The only thing the Buckeyes have to fear is a college dropout infiltrating the ranks of the mascots to sucker punch our beloved nut. Watch your back, Brutus. OU: 10--OSU: 45
Schweinfurth: At least this game is a step up. Why did we even schedule Grambling State? Oh well, it gave the Bucks some much needed live fire. Peter Navarro is a good college QB. Don't get me wrong, he is good. This game will be won in the trenches. The Buckeyes are just more talented on the lines. It would be nice to get Peoples going in this one. And oh yea, throw Da Bomb to 4. This shouldn't be a rehash of 2010, but it may be close after the first quarter. The Bucks should win relatively easy and on to the Bye week. OU: 9--OSU: 49
Seeberg: Well crap, someone who posted before me took my score prediction! Oh well, such is life. To their credit, the Bobcats started their season with 3 straight power 4 opponents, nearly beating Rutgers before downing West Virginia (I assume Rich Rod’s time at UM made him unable to tell the difference between Ohio and Ohio State). The Buckeyes are definitely a few levels up from what they’ve seen so far. Keeping Navarro caged in will be key. I’d like to see a scheme similar to when Cody Simon spied Gabriel in the Rose Bowl and closed him out all game to the tune of 2 sacks and defensive MVP. On offense, Sayin showed his insane accuracy, and though receivers may not be quite so open as last week, he should have plenty of chances. Would like to see the run game take a step forward as well. Let’s hammer it down their throats, keep Sayin (and Brutus as mentioned above!) clean, and enjoy the bye week at 3-0 and prepping for a fun road game at Washington. OU: 6—OSU: 42

Upset Special

Draper: Arkansas over Ole Miss

Hoying: Florida over LSU

Schweinfurth: Wisconsin over Bama

Seeberg: Texas State over Arizona State 

Week 2: The Lesser Rivals Showcase

Standings:

1.) Draper 2-1 (1-0 upset)
2.) Hoying 1-2 (0-1 upset)
2.) Seeberg 1-2 (0-1 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 1-2 (0-1 upset)

After the eyes of Texas (and everyone else) were on Columbus last weekend, the bitter rivals of those competitors are meeting up for a semi-phenomenal, nearly cosmic battle of their own in Big 12 SEC country. Still, it's easily the best matchup of the day, unless you want to see a dead body in the Shoe (and who doesn't?) or you have the true heart of a Sicko to cast your eyes upon an annual rivalry of futility and mediocrity renewed once again.

Michigan Wolverines @ Oklahoma Sooners
Draper: What to do? TTUN was a QB away from being decent last year, but we still don't know if they have one.  He looked decent in week one, but the peripheral pieces have dropped off a bit.  OU was supremely mediocre last year but there are some rumblings that they may have found the next QB in John Mateer.  It's really hard to pull any information from these week 1 games, but Underwood flashed at times (and wasn't awful) while Mateer looked phenomenal (against a paper bag).  I wouldn't be surprised either way, but I tend to avoid picking freshman led teams in their first road start.  Norman is a tall order for the youngling and also.....screw them.  BOOMER!! UM: 17--OU: 24
Hoying: Time to find out just how good a coach Sherrone Moore is. Yes, he stood toe to toe with Ohio State and Alabama last year and refused to flinch, but the Wolverines were playing with house money by that point. Now, after enduring Jack Tuttle, Alex Orji, and Davis Warren during last year's torturous campaign, Moore finally has his QB of the future. And as last season marched onward, it seemed that a decent QB may have been the only piece stopping the maize and blue from running it back for a for real no asterisk run at the title. Of course, Kenneth Grant and Mason Graham have moved on, but it's not like UM has been hurting for elite level D-line play in the post-COVID era. OU had their own problems at quarterbacks last season but seemed to have a few more problems in lopsided losses to South Carolina, Texas, and LSU (and a bowl loss to Navy). The Cheat Weasels didn't inspire a lot of confidence with last week's kind-of-close win over New Mexico, but I'm betting they were saving their best for this week. UM: 24--OU: 21
Schweinfurth: UM: 17--OU: 20
Seeberg: Well the season has begun, we have an actual data point for teams now!  Still not much on which to base conclusions, however.  I think it’s relatively safe to say that UM’s offense looked a notch better than anticipated, while the defense maybe looked a half-step worse.  The Sooners, meanwhile, may actually have the better quarterback in the Red River Rivalry this season, which would have sounded blasphemous just seven short days ago.  Venables seems to have the defense shaped up as well.  And, let’s be real, nobody reading this wants to see the maize and blue win…ever.  Boomer Sooner.  UM: 17—OU: 27

Iowa Hawkeyes @ Iowa State Cyclones

Draper: Everyone's favorite rivalry that no one particularly cares about.  Are the Clones ready to stake a claim as contenders? I'm not so sure that a win cements their status as ready to compete, but a loss would be a major blow.  Rocco Becht and Co. look like the frontrunners of the Big 12 (along with Utah) but can Ferentz work his voodoo in El clAssico  once more? I'm not sold on Iowa, but stranger things have happened.  On second thought, looking at the fire performance from the Hawkeyes on offense last week, maybe it's just business as usual.  Iowa: 16--ISU: 27
Hoying: This always seems to be a game that gives the Hawkeyes fits even when Iowa State is wallowing in the Big 12 mud. But this year, the Clones are already 2-0 with a ranked win (though a highly suspect looking one in hindsight) across two continents. And Iowa just finished up a dreadful performance by their new transfer QB Mark Gronowski, who put up 44 total passing yards on just 2.9 yards per attempt. And that was against Albany. I'm not sure why any offensive player would ever transfer to Iowa (unless, like Cade McNamara, you've been booted out of your job at your old school) but settle in, Mark. It's going to be a looong season with Penn State, Oregon, and yes, even Indiana and Michigan State coming to town. The eternally glacial flame under Kirk Ferentz's seat might actually pick up a few degrees this year as the Hawkeye faithful begin to wonder if an actual working offense might not suit them better. No more free passes to the Big Ten Championship out of the feckless west, Kirk. Iowa: 10--ISU: 20
Schweinfurth: Iowa: 9--ISU: 10
Seeberg: Ah yes, that classic in-state battle for a pretty cool trophy and…typically that’s about it.  Still uncertain if either of these teams is good, but I am certain that the Hawkeyes’ offense is bad.  Less than 50 yards passing against an FCS opponent is both REALLY sad and REALLY predictable.  Iowa State, meanwhile, beat Will Howard’s former squad that apparently is poor at talent recognition since they ran him out of town for whatever Avery Johnson claims to be.  This is probably a “first to 20” wins game…and 20 is rarified air for the black and gold.  Cyclones take the Cyhawk.  ISU: 20—Iowa: 13

Grambling State Tigers @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: Not a lot to say.... even the Grambling coach knowns what's happening.  Honestly, this is a moment to work out the kinks we saw last week on offense.  Sayin should open up a little more with little fear of 'making the big mistake'.  Don't expect too many starters in the 2nd half. Jeremiah is a lock for at least 1 TD to fix those dropsies while the game plan should be getting live game reps and trying out new things.  Defensively, there's not much room to grow, but I predict Grambling will get in the end zone much to Buckeye Nation's chagrin (against the scrubs).  Honestly, this is a game in which we hope no one gets hurt and we try some fun things out.  Grambling's coach mentioned they'll compete...as a band....but we all know what's going to happen.  GSU: 7--OSU: 59

Hoying: 1-0 is 1-0, especially against the #1 team in the country. But let's not pretend that last week's performance was flawless. The two most heavily touted pass catchers on the team had the old Crisco gloves on during the first quarter, and the run game wasn't able to generate much push once Texas figured out that the Buckeyes were trying to run clock Lt. Governor style for the entire second half. Grambling should provide a good opportunity to work on their timing and execution against some nominally live reps. The defense, however, was unimpeachable last week. My categorical error in predicting last week's outcome was thinking that the defense had to be rebuilt, instead of just not breaking it, especially with Caleb Downs practically being a mini-coach out there on the field himself. So the Silver Bullets should be able to name their score this weekend (hopefully zero) so long as they can stay focused. Another cupcake next week, a bye, and then the season really gets interesting as Big Ten play starts off with a bang in Seattle. For now, just stamp the ticket and move on to week 3. GSU: 3--OSU: 63

Schweinfurth: GSU: 0--OSU: 63

Seeberg: Well, nice to have that big win out of the way isn’t it?  The fact that 14 points and barely over 200 yards of offense was enough speaks volumes about how good Matt Patricia and that defense are already - and how great they can become.  As long as that D-line gets just enough pressure, it looks as though the back 7 will hold up well.  Downs actually wasn’t in on a ton of plays, but he was reading things and taking away reads all over the field while Reese and McClain tackled everything carrying the football.  On the offensive side of the ball, Sayin actually graded out a champion, and his stats would look markedly different without the 4(!) drops from a usually sure-handed WR/TE corps.  Hopefully, Day and Hartline use this week’s outmatched opponents to work the run game and open up the offense for Sayin to command more of it.  Pass protection looked very solid which was a plus.  I don’t know if Day will shorten games as much this season as he did last year, since this squad is young and needs more reps.  Either way, it should be a relaxing 3:30 watch, with astonishingly non-homer Jake Butt on the call.  Enjoy, Buckeye Nation.  GSU: 10—OSU: 45

Upset Special

Draper: ULM over Bama

Hoying: Mississippi State over Arizona State

Schweinfurth: East Texas A&M over Florida State

Seeberg:  South Florida over Florida

Week 1: The Stars at Noon Are Big and Bright

It's title defense time in Columbus, Ohio, which for both such seasons in recent memory has meant a long, joyless slog before watching hopes of a repeat slip away at the last moments. This year, the Buckeyes don't have time for a hangover, as perhaps the biggest season opener in the history of the game finds its way to the banks of the Olentangy (under the bright lights of...the sun). Elsewhere, perennial early season heroic schedulers LSU, Clemson, and Notre Dame find themselves with nasty wake-up calls even before the month of August is out.

Louisiana State Tigers @ Clemson Tigers

Draper: Now the dust of another offseason is in the books and our long national nightmare is over....well actually, it's been pretty...pretty....pretty good after the end of last season (It's good to be the king).  The one (potential) good outcome of the playoff is that these early season games should become more of the norm (since the points are made up and the score doesn't matter).  Now, to the play on the field.  This is the annual 'we really have no clue so let's throw some darts'. Both teams return top Heisman favorites at QB but the questions are " Can Brian Kelly actually win a season opener?" and "Can Clemson actually play defense this year?"  Tom Allen is supposed to fix all wounds (and he did wonders for IU), but will it be enough?  Honestly, Clemson is a big name this year due to a senior laden roster, but I don't think they have the horses to beat the best of the best.  Good news everyone! LSU is not the best of the best! I'm going to (begrudgingly) give the slight edge to the Tigers (checks notes...), I mean the slight edge to Death Valley (checks notes...), I mean the slight edge to the team that plays Tiger Rag....Oh well, I lean the team playing in their own Death Valley, home of the dumbest pregame tradition of rubbing a rock.  Dabo gets it done (barely) while Brian Kelly feels the heat turned up to a new level.  LSU: 27--Clem:30
Hoying: Another year, another monster opener for Brian Kelly's LSU. Say what you want about the SEC's out of conference scheduling, but it takes real courage to start every year's Playoff hunt in a one-game hole like the Bayou Bengals do year after year. And this time it'll be against another team that's been lost in the wilderness for the first half of the 2020's. Neither team has been able to replicate its respective height from the 2020 CFP Championship, when Joe Burrow showed Trevor Lawrence how we do things in Athens, OH, before Justin Fields and Crew put the nail in Clemson's coffin the following year. Clemson is a trendy pick to return to the Playoff after sneaking in last year, and even to make off with the hardware depending on whom you ask. But I have to say I don't see it. Clemson QB Cade Klubnik may be the best returning QB in college football this year, but the Tigers had him last season and CU opened the season by getting pasted by Georgia 34-3. And LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier may be every bit as good as Carson Beck was last year. LSU's defense has been pretty bad ever since their last magical title run but it's not like Clemson was a brick wall last season either. I'll believe the Tigers (the purple ones) (the purple AND ORANGE ONES) can win another big boy game against a big boy opponent when I see it. Kelly finally starts the season on the right foot. LSU: 31--Clem: 27

Schweinfurth: Brian Kelly hasn't won a single opener at LSU. Let that sink in. They guy who was brought in to turn a program around is failing. Clemson is a trendy pick to make a lot of noise this year. I can see it, now that Dabo has learned that you can actually help your team through the transfer portal. I have no faith in Brian Kelly until he proves he can actually coach a team instead of just yelling and turning purple. LSU: 24--Clem: 31

Seeberg:  First of all, credit to ALL six of these teams for scheduling absolute bangers in week one.  You love to see it!  Now to the games.  Tigers of Death Valley, meet Tigers of Death Valley.  Everyone is high on both of these teams this year, primarily due to recruiting rankings coupled with returning signal callers.  Dabo’s squad may be good enough to make a run in the CFP and keep his gig for another few years, despite his almost anachronistic view of the sport these days.  Brian Kelly has another top 10 team too; however, not only did he squander the literal Heisman winner two years ago (who also showed out in the NFL), but he never wins these opening games.  USC got him in week one last year, and Clemson is markedly better than that team.  I don’t buy that LSU will be light years better than last season, so I’ve gotta go with the orange-clad Tigers in this one.  Clem: 31—LSU: 20

SUNDAY, AUGUST 31

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Miami Hurricanes

Draper: Oh boy....thinking about this game, my immediate gut reaction was 'why are we even talking about this game?'  The Irish went to the title game last year (some luck but still), and Miami....sucks.  While Miami still does indeed suck, I forgot about Carson Beck fleeing to South Florida to be with his girlfr....ooops.  The intrigue is that Miami has a proven starter (who may be just ok) but ND is starting a redshirt freshman.  While Hard Rock Stadium and the Miami home crowd is usually meh at best, they tend to come out (a little) for the bigger games.  I don't think the homefield advantage will be massive, but the simple fact that the signal caller on the other side is extremely green makes this really interesting.  I expect a MASSIVE amount of work to go to Jeremiyah Love but if the Canes don't have any respect for the pass, there could be trouble.  Beck should provide a stabilizing presence.  Although it guts me to do this, I'm picking the Convicts.  I don't like it, but home team, at night, with the (likely) better QB, in the opener? ND: 17--UM: 20
Hoying: Speaking of monster openers, the Irish are up to bat again and hoping to get to October unscathed for the first time in the Marcus Freeman era. Not that any early losses have stopped them in the past from making it even to the CFP Championship. The Irish were never going to win that game (no, not even before 3rd-and-Jeremiah) and they still need to take another step to be a true title contender, but Miami has been a giant leap behind them ever since Glenn Sharpe grabbed Chris Gamble in the Tempe end zone. If the Canes can give Carson Beck the glow-up they gave Cam Ward last year, they should be able to score on anybody, but as Miami learned in their last 2 games last year, even scoring 38+ won't save you if the defense doesn't get off the bus. Defense has been Notre Dame's calling card under Freeman, and with Jeremiyah Love back to pace the Irish ground game, it's up to Lloyd Carr's grandson to try to give Notre Dame the steady hand behind center they've been so desperately missing in their last few campaigns. Time will tell if he is the answer they've been looking for, but they won't need his A-game to get by Miami. No rest for the wicked, as Texas A&M will come calling in just two week, but the Irish are hot out of the gates for a second straight year. ND: 34--UM: 31

Schweinfurth: I'm not buying Miami this year. They brought in Cam Ward to make them better last year and got a similar result. Notre Dame is still well coached and will suck the life out a game. I'll take the Domers. ND: 21--UM: 13

Seeberg:  Sunday night banger before the NFL takes over (meh).  Teams are never the same at the end of the year as they are at the start.  Never will that hold more true than in this matchup.  The Irish have the better roster top to bottom, but start a wildly young QB.  Carson Beck leads the U, which sounds great, until you realize that Cam Ward couldn’t get this squad to the playoffs last year…and none of their skill players that left even made an NFL roster.  Not great implications about the guys behind them.  If this one were in November, or even the playoff, I would almost certainly take ND, but Freeman’s teams start slow more often than not (see:  NIU, Miami Ohio, Louisville last year) and this is quick start week one.  The U gets the W and thinks they’re back before a hilarious loss to South Florida in two more weeks.  ND: 17—Miami: 24

SATURDAY, AUGUST 30

Texas Longhorns @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: Once more, into the breach.  Your reward for winning a national championship is starting the next year with a new QB, against a top team, a Hall of Famer's nephew (and Eli), and a team who you dispatched on the way to the title (You will always remember the name of Captain Jack Sawyer).  While this game shows what is wrong with the playoff, it also shows the greatness of college football.  The winner will be showered with praise, and the loser will be taunted and booed until my throat is sore! Honestly, this has little effect on the grand scheme as both teams are likely in the CFP (although a loss for UT would make the margin for error quite thin in the SEC--can't have 2 more losses--probably).  On to the game: the Buckeyes' season will come down to the same question as last year: can the QB not lose the game? The hype is there with Sayin, but we simply haven't seen it yet.  Honestly, the hype is the there for Arch, but he's not the polished prospect everyone says he is.  I'd give the edge to OSU for almost every position group (outside of QB), but the margins are thin across the board. The X factors are the top 2 players in college football and thankfully they both wear scarlet.  Jeremiah Smith is a legit NFL receiver right now (and likely last year as well) so the Horns will need to scheme him to a reduced capacity.  Bad news for them is that Carnell Tate is also eyeing the league and should have some softer coverage.  Caleb Downs is a top 5 pick in the NFL next year and he's going to have to lead this young defense and be the coordinator on the field (since the DC ran away as fast as he could when he didn't get his way).  Matt Patricia is an interesting (weird) hire, but he's thrown right into the fire vs. a Sarkesian led team.  I expect both teams to show flaws and both QBs to make mistakes, but the magic of the Shoe needs to be the final nail in the coffin. I could see this going anyway as these teams are both clearly in the elite athletic class.  Execution is key....and I'm throwing to #4.  Go Bucks! Open the season with a bang! UT: 20--OSU: 24
Hoying: If you think the deja vu is strong in Columbus, imagine what they're going through down south. No Notre Dame sandwich game for the Longhorns: they're facing the Scarlet and Gray in back-to-back games, a phenomenon I'm not sure has ever happened in the history of Buckeye football. But much like last year's national championship rematch in Seattle, these are hardly the same two teams that faced off back in January. A combined 26 players have since left for the NFL, leaving numerous holes and question marks across both teams. Of course, all Ohio State does is reload (as does...Texas? per Stanford Steve, notwithstanding taking the entirety of the 2010s off) but the QB and DL positions remain a bit untested. Not the best recipe for success when opening the season against the #1 team in the country. But Texas is still a work in progress as well. Yes, Arch has the famous last name, but so did Eli, and he never won anything of consequence at Ole Miss. And if you remember the Buckeyes' struggles at O-line last year, Texas is in the midst of replacing 4 starters with relatively untested replacements, including a left tackle with a cast on his hand. That'll make it a bit harder to get away with the standard 20 free holds a game spotted to OSU's opponents. I so want to go with the home team in this one. Top to bottom, I think the Buckeyes are the more complete team and just better overall. But as much as Jimmies and Joes beat X's and O's, the scheme matters on the margins when the game is otherwise nearly talent-equated. And you don't want to be breaking in a new OC and a brand new DC on a stage like this. It took 3 years for Jim Knowles's defense to reach its final form, and the offense never looked quite right back in 2023 when Hartline took the reins the first time. Sark is one of the finest offensive minds in the business, so Ohio State better have their defense ready to go from the opening gun. It helps to have continuity from last year's championship defense with Caleb Downs, who's practically a defensive coach himself, but miscommunications doomed Ohio State against Oregon last year, and I fear the same trip-ups will snag them here. Horns get revenge, regain the lead in the series, and slide into the (cattle) driver's seat for a favorable seed in the Playoff. UT: 23--OSU: 20.

Schweinfurth: For all the talk of Ohio State needing to replace everyone...so is Texas. Here's the thing, Ohio State actually has the more experienced offensive line. This will be huge. There is also a cheat code out wide in #4. Yes, Texas has Arch Manning, but he hasn't been the world beater everyone says he is so far. Maybe I'm wrong. I do know that Matt Patricia is going to unleash Arvell Reese and Sonny Styles. This one should be fun and a classic. The Bucks owe Texas one in the 'Shoe (Sweed didn't catch the ball). UT: 20--OSU: 27

Seeberg:  Well kids, we made it.  Buckeye football is back!  The glow of the natty seems to be long gone inside the Woody.  This team is so dichotomous to me.  It looks NOTHING like the title-winning team from last season.  Fourteen(!) draft picks- and Josh Fryar made a roster as a UDFA- are gone (and I’m still made that Tre never returned kickoffs).  New faces absolutely everywhere.  However, we also have, almost inarguably, the best offensive AND defensive player in the country returning. Seems impossible.  And who’s coming to town? 

The Longhorns, the team that clearly gave us the stiffest test in the postseason last year.  They’re also replacing a big chunk of talent (12 draft picks, including the Thorpe Award winner), but their D-line is largely intact.  And in case you hadn’t heard, they have a Manning at QB- one who threw for over 1,000 yards last season in just two starts and spot/mop up duty. That experience must feel like a lifetime to Julian Sayin who hasn’t seen the field when the Buckeyes were within 40 of their opponent on the scoreboard.  As much as Jeremiah is an absolute cheat code, 1 catch for 3 yards against Texas’s excellent zone scheme last year suggests he can be neutralized by their plans.  Tate had a day, however, (7 catches, 87 yards) which leads me to believe that WR3 needs to have a big day (Inniss?).  Q and Tre also showed up in a big way, and they’re both gone as well, so Peoples and CJ and even Bo Jackson might need a big play or two. In sum, these two are top five programs again for a reason.  Talent abounds everywhere.  Day should employ a similar game plan for Sayin that CJ Stroud had in his first start against Minnesota in 2021; lots of short/intermediate throws and lots of moving pockets to keep the pressure light.  Will Hartline do something similar?   One can only hope, but it’s his first time truly with the reins as well.  It may get disjointed at times- frankly I’d be surprised if it didn’t.  Again, if these squads meet in January, all things the same, I’m likely taking the Buckeyes.  But I just can’t do it here.  Close, tense, low-scoring.  First to 24 would assuredly win it, and I don’t think either team even gets there.  Longhorns escape but the Buckeyes’ future looks bright.  UT: 20—OSU: 17  

Upset Special
Draper: FSU over Bama (Leeeeerrrrooooooyyyyy Jeeeeennnnnkkkkiinnnssssss)
Hoying: Syracuse over Tennessee
Schweinfurth: UCLA over Utah
Seeberg:  Toledo over Kentucky

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF CHAMPIONSHIP - OHIO STATE VS. NOTRE DAME

Final Standings:

1.) Draper 53-18 (2-12 upset)
2.) Hoying 52-19 (3-11 upset)
3.) Seeberg 51-20 (3-11 upset)
4.) Schweinfurth 48-23 (1-13 upset)

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Draper: The day has finally arrived, and the story of the season will finally have been written.  Will this Buckeye class live forever as gladiators that arose from the ashes to be crowned kings or live in infamy as the top class that never beat TTUN or won any hardware?  After suffering the slings and arrows of the fanbase, I’d be hard pressed to have found a team that has rallied more strongly to each other, to their coach, and to a mission.  This is the day where it comes to fruition.  From an Xs-and-Os standpoint, the Buckeyes have advantages all over the field. The one advantage held by the Irish would be the mobile nature of Riley Leonard.  I expect Downs to play a lot of the game in the box to curtail the running and daring Leonard to go over the top where Ransom and Co. will be waiting.  Much of the onus will fall on Cody Simon’s shoulders to muster the run defense and keep the bullets tight in the run game.  The D-line will get pressure against a good Irish O-line with the freshman left tackle.  On the other side of the ball, Howard will continue dealing.  Most talk about the Irish secondary (which is very good), but I believe the Longhorn secondary is better. Expect Smith to get involved this game more, because the Irish can’t hold up in the front seven without support. If he is taken out, the myriad other weapons will be activated.  Tre busts a few chunk plays, Q pounds the rock for short yardage, Howard deals and runs more than expected, and the receivers ball out as usual.  If we don’t play the UM ‘shoot ourselves in the foot at every juncture game’, I don’t see the Irish path to victory.  Keep it clean, limit turnovers, play your game, and we hoist the trophy tonight.  One more, then forever. Go Bucks! OSU: 27--ND: 13
Hoying: Unless you thought that the five advantages for the Irish that I had to rack my brain to produce are all total gamechangers, you already know who I’m picking in this one. The Buckeyes have proven this season that they can lose to an inferior, borderline-bad team (albeit one on a steep upswing). But as I said in my Tennessee preview, that basically required the Buckeye offense to do exactly as much, no more, no less, as it took to lose that game. Every game since has proven that Chip Kelly took the loss to TTUN as personally as Knowles took the loss to Oregon. I think the Irish are going to need all of their lucky charms to win this one. Riley Leonard is just plain bad under pressure, and none of the Buckeyes’ Playoff opponents have found a way to slow down the Buckeye pass rush, even with enough opposing offensive lines dishing out more hugs than the Tanner family on Full House. And they haven’t faced near the injuries that Notre Dame has. Joe Alt isn’t walking through that door anytime soon to save them. The Irish pass defense is elite, but they’re not good enough to manage Smith, Egbuka, and Tate one-on-one. You cheat back a little and that opens the door for Judkins and Henderson to do what Chip Trayanum and, well, Henderson did to them last year. Notre Dame does not have the interior line strength to put six in the box and dare Ohio State to run. Basically, they have to hope that Howard completely implodes to the point that it makes his performance on November 30th look like Dwayne Haskins’, then turn the resulting basket of sacks and turnovers into short enough fields that the Silver Bullets don’t have time to bend before they break. This is the most pissed off Ohio State team since…well, the last time these two met in the postseason, and we saw what happened on that day even after Joey Bosa’s career ended on the ticky-tackiest targeting call this side of Denzel Ward’s BBQ Shack. The gate is wide and the way is easy that leads to destruction, and those Ohio State opponents who enter by it are many. The gate is narrow and the way is hard, that leads to life against the Buckeyes, and those who find it are few. They won’t find it tonight. OSU: 28—ND: 13
Schweinfurth: The long and winding road of this season ends tonight. A lot of ills and wounds can be healed by one more victory. Jack Sawyer and company have been playing the type of defense Buckeye fans have been clamoring for since the 2014 team. The Silver Bullets have been absolutely dominant all season. One more test in a bit of a paper tiger offense. If the Bullets can keep the Irish offense bottled up, it could be over quick. Especially if Notre Dame decides man coverage is a good idea. There are so many weapons on the Buckeye offense and I'm not sure the Irish have faced a team like this. The Irish offensive line is beat up (yes, so is Ohio State's, but they had time to adjust) and Sawyer, JTT, and Tyliek should eat well. Finally, this team plays hard for Ryan Day. They love the man, and I get it. Lou Holtz started running his mouth again (FWIW) and my have started writing checks the Irish can't cash. Go Bucks. Let's get #9! OSU: 31--ND: 10
Seeberg:  Look, this game has been broken down ad nauseum the last week and change. The fact is that there are more ways to victory for the scarlet and gray. Talent and scheme favor the Buckeyes. But the last two years have taught us that this will still be a four quarter contest. I hope to see a similar defensive plan as Oregon. Simon spied Gabriel beautifully and first-read throws were largely taken away. Another fast start is paramount to get the Irish uncomfortable and for our seniors. They have prepared and preached about playing one more week in the scarlet and gray. Well, there’s no more games now. An early deficit coupled with that realization could be disastrous. But despite the circuitous route, this team is right where many of us thought they would be when things kicked off 5(!) months ago. In recent Buckeye history, this game has the feel of 2023 OSU-PSU to me. Bucks will appear the superior team but ND won’t beat themselves and hang in well past half. In the end, however, a big drive or a clutch stop (preferably both) will finally put the golden domers away. Enjoy the night Buckeye Nation! OSU: 24—ND: 13

Ten Reasons Ohio State Beats Notre Dame

1. The Safety Dance

When Ohio State hired Jim Knowles to take a hatchet to the incompetent defense that cost the Buckeyes a natty (2020) and their longest ever streak in The Game (2021), they were expecting the same kind of three high safety driven scheme that Knowles had run at Oklahoma State. And they implemented it fairly well in 2022, with Tanner McCalister following Knowles from the other OSU to teach Ronnie Hickman and Lathan Ransom how the scheme worked. But I doubt that Knowles could have foreseen the kind of talent he'd have at his disposal on the back end for Ohio State this year. Ransom's still here, and he's the highest-graded run defender in the country. Caleb Downs might just be the best defender in the country, period. I can't recall a play this season where I thought, "Man, Caleb, what are you doing?" but there seems to be at least one in every game where I'm not convinced the guy is human. Throw in last year's elite nickelback Jordan Hancock to round out the 3-safety look and you'll not find a better deep threat container and run game neutralizing combination anywhere in college football.

2. Ask and You Shall Receive

Notwithstanding Ohio State's elite safety unit, Notre Dame has put the best performing pass defense of any team on the field this fall (and winter). But they haven't seen anything like what Ohio State's about to roll out on them. Last time the Irish took the field they did not allow a single reception to a wide receiver. But that's Penn State for you; Ohio State allowed three receptions to wide receivers in Happy Valley earlier this season. The only team that Notre Dame has seen with receiver talent in the same galaxy as Ohio State is USC, and they allowed 360 yards through the air and 3 TDs to the Trojans. Oregon decided to play man-to-man coverage against Jeremiah Smith and paid dearly. Notre Dame has pledged to do the same; let's see if there's a man among them who can stop a properly motivated #4.

3. H-O-R-W-A-R-D

All the wide receiver talent in the world doesn't make much of a difference if the man behind center can't get them the ball. Look no further than (no, not Ohio State last year, leave Kyle McCord alone), let's say, LSU pre-Burrow. After McCord declared his intentions to leave and it became really, really obvious that Devin Brown and Lincoln Kienholz weren't going to be the answer, Buckeye Nation was a bit frustrated to miss out on Dillon Gabriel and Cam Ward to pick up...Will Howard? I mean, yeah, nice Big 12 championship, but the last transfer QB we picked up in a pinch was one of the top recruits in his year and left thanks to criminal mismanagement of his talents by his Georgia Bulldogs. It felt like with Howard, you knew what you were getting at this point. I thought if he could be as good as replacement-level JT Barrett, the Buckeyes might have a chance. Folks, he's been better. Outside of a clunker against you-know-who, Howard has been one of the steadiest hands in college football, with a 72.6% completion percentage that ranks #1 in Ohio State history and one of the top QB ratings across the entire sport. Riley Leonard is a great dual threat QB in his own right but I wouldn't expect him to engineer a 13 play, 88 yard drive with 7 completions like Will used to put Texas away.

4. I've Aged You Well. Some Might Say Perfect

This year has been an interesting reversal of fortune for the collective age of the Scarlet and Gray. A program that's used to sending its top talent early to the NFL and facing scrappy underdogs of second-tier senior talent suddenly finds itself holding on to the vast majority of the landmark 2021 class for one more year. And people say NIL is destroying the sport. From here in Columbus, it looks like it's saving college football, convincing players to stick around for one more year who'd otherwise be long gone. Joliet Jack spent the offseason putting the band back together, and the fruits of his labor are a starting lineup featuring 13 senior or grad starters, the vast majority of which could easily have found playing time in the NFL this year. Setting aside the obvious raw ability of this group, their combined experience and leadership are precisely the intangibles any championship team needs.

5. Bustin' Makes Me Feel Bad

It feels strange to say, but the Buckeyes have been relatively lucky from an injury standpoint this year. Yes, they were thin at offensive line even when the season began, and yes, they lost their two best players on the line, forcing them to rethink how to put together an effective run blocking scheme. But Notre Dame's been getting punched in the gut again and again this season, up to and including their last outing in the semifinals against Penn State. From All-American cornerbacks, to offensive linemen, defensive linemen, a kicker, and even their star running back. It's gotten so bad that starting lineman Charles Jagusah, ruled out for the season during training camp, might be back for the championship...to replace another lineman, Antoine Knapp, who left the Penn State game with an injury. The Irish have weathered the storm to the tune of a 13-game winning streak, but when you're already working at a talent disadvantage, you don't want to be breaking in new starters against the best team you'll face all year.

6. Line Dance

Speaking of breaking in a new-look offensive line, the Irish have come up with the worst possible time to do so. The Buckeye defensive front has been an absolute wrecking crew throughout the Playoff, totaling 12 sacks, 17 TFLs, and 10 pass breakups, along with a pretty significant forced fumble and touchdown to clinch a spot in the championship. Jack Sawyer in particular has been playing like a man on fire, which is even more impressive considering every opposing tackle along the way has mistaken him for Olaf and given him a warm hug. But with Notre Dame starting a new left tackle this week, look for the damage to be done on the other side of the D line by JT Tuimoloau in his swan song. A repeat of the 2022 Penn State game wouldn't be out of the question.

7. Running on Empty

As stated above and in our list of Irish superlatives, Notre Dame covers the pass like no one else nationwide. It may surprise you to hear, then, that their run defense has been downright pedestrian. Part of this may be a defensive line that's a constant work of progress due to injury. But for whatever reason, the Buckeye offense, usually predicated on success through the air, may find some room to work on the ground after taking a step back against Texas. Notre Dame's elite rushing attack may be elite but Jeremiyah Love will have a lot harder time trying to run on TnT inside and Caleb and Lathan outside than Tre and Quinshon will finding room against a (relatively) soft Irish front. Look for Howard to have a game changing play like he did against Penn State and Texas as well.

8. Notre Dame Ain't Played Nobody, Pawwwwwl (until the Playoff)

The tone of the media was very different after Ohio State's loss to Oregon as compared to the treatment of Notre Dame after losing to Northern Illinois. The Irish had been riding high off of a season-opening road win over Texas A&M, but one untimely loss put their Playoff hopes on a razor's edge as early as week 2. The reason? A squishy soft schedule the rest of the way, which looks even worse in retrospect. The only team Notre Dame played in the regular season that was ranked going into bowl season was Army, and that was only because new rankings didn't go out after the Black Knights lost to Navy. The Irish have more than proven their mettle in the Playoff itself, as Indiana, Georgia, and Penn State are no joke, but Ohio State has been doing this all year. Notre Dame will be the sixth Playoff team the Buckeyes will have faced this season, seventh if you count Oregon twice. Basically everyone except the joke teams and Georgia. Ohio State's proven that they can lose to the mediocre as well as the great, but this will be the ultimate test for an Irish squad that had the luxury of sleeping through class until December's wake-up call.

9. Goldilocks Defense

The Buckeyes are knocking on the door of their first national title in ten years, but they came agonizingly close just two years ago. Facing off against the #1 team in the country, who would go on to the biggest national championship blowout in history just a week later, the Buckeyes surrendered an eleven-point 4th quarter lead to fall by one point to the national champs. Most emblematic of that collapse was a one-play, 76-yard drive to cut Ohio State's lead to 3. Lathan Ransom fell down in man coverage and there was no other safety to help him. The play served as a great microcosm of the overly aggressive Jim Knowles defense that worked like gangbusters in 2022 until Michigan and Georgia were able to exploit it mercilessly for a combined 86 points. In 2023, the Buckeye defense were more content to play contain and keep everything in front of them, which worked well all season until Missouri and, who else, were able to eventually wear down the Silver Bullets, who forced no turnovers to help out the insufficient Buckeye offenses in those games. This year, Knowles seems to have mixed the formula just right, and suddenly it's like watching the 2019 defense again, with a punishing line and suffocating secondary working hand in hand to create nightmares for opposing teams. Nowhere was this more evident than the crucial penultimate last series against the Longhorns, where the back seven held up the Texas offense just enough to allow the defensive line to stick the last dagger deep in the heart of Texas.

10. One More, Then Forever

If you haven't read Jack Sawyer's goodbye piece about what being a Buckeye means to him, by all means go read that instead of this (although we'd love you to come back and finish this, too). The 2021 Buckeye class features some of the best to ever put on the Scarlet and Gray at their respective positions. And while these players have won 46 games and never lost more than two games in a season (inshallah) or finished outside the top ten, they haven't attained a single one of the team's goals in any of their seasons. If they don't want to leave Ohio State as the most accomplished group of failures in program history, they'll need to take advantage of their one last chance to write their page in the chronicles of Buckeye legends. As mentioned in the schedule analysis above, this Buckeye team has proven it can beat multiple top teams in a season, and they've had to string a few together by the sheer structure of the new Playoff. Time to put it all together and deliver four years' worth of frustration to whatever poor saps stand between them and immortality.

Five Reasons Notre Dame Beats Ohio State

Traditionally, leading up to a national championship game featuring Ohio State, we at Let's Go Bucks! set forth ten reasons why each team could emerge victorious from the season's final clash. This year will be a little different. Stay tuned for ten reasons why Ohio State beats Notre Dame, but the case for the Golden Domers will be limited to five arguments only. No disrespect to the Irish, it's just that their march onward to victory is narrower and comprises fewer paths than the Buckeyes'.

1. No Fly Zone 

Ohio State may feature one of the best one-two punches at running back in the nation, but the Buckeyes continue make their hay through the air, especially in the Playoff. That's bad news when you're facing the nation's #1 pass defense in both success rate and EPA. In contrast to Texas, who also had an elite pass defense and was able to frustrate the Buckeye air attack to an extent, the Irish rely heavily on Cover-1 and other man concepts rather than zone. Time will tell if the Irish secondary can win some one-on-one battles or if this game turns into Rose Bowl II: Lost in Atlanta. It's worth noting that Ohio State is right behind the Irish in pass defense (#2 in success rate and efficiency, #1 in yards per game). But either way, "ND" doesn't stand for "No Defense" anymore.

2. Rush Hour

The Irish superlatives aren't limited to the defensive side of the ball. Notre Dame also has the sport's top rushing attack by EPA, although their success rate is a less impressive 45.1%. Their ground game is powered by a true three-pronged attack, as each of QB Riley Leonard and RBs Jadarian Price and Jeremiyah Love have rushed for over 700 yards this season and average over 5 yards per carry. Similarly to Ohio State, Jeremiyah is the standout among the group; you may remember his 98 yard scamper to open the scoring in this year's Playoff (and would have been sufficient to singlehandedly deliver the Irish the victory absent garbage time). The problem is that he, and the entire Notre Dame run game by extension, have been hobbled since being injured in the Georgia game. Love was a singular bright spot in the Penn State game, managing to grind out over 4 yards a carry and a heroic TD run, but the same Penn State rush D that was steamrolled by Henderson, Judkins, and Howard stood strong against the nation's ostensibly best rushing attack. Love sill need to be at his best for the Irish to have their best opportunities to move the ball.

3. Turnover a New Shamrock

How do you keep up with a team with a fast firing offense? Steal a few possessions back via turnover. Nobody does this better than the Irish, who have absconded with 32 total takeaways in 15 games. That's one better than Texas, who played 16, and thirteen better than Ohio State. And both teams have lost the same number of turnovers in return. Ohio State has managed to best, and even turn(over) the tables on, some of the other top turnover margin teams in Indiana and Iowa, and the aforementioned ball-hawking Texas. But the Buckeyes have two losses this year, and they turned the ball over twice in both.

4. You Guys Don't Give Up

After comfortably controlling each of its first two Playoff games, the Irish found themselves in a 10-0 hole to Penn State that persisted until a field goal closing the half chipped into Penn State's lead. Notre Dame fought back, gained the lead, lost the lead again, and rallied once more to win on a field goal in the final seconds. Ohio State fought through a similar deficit against Penn State but never trailed in the second half. The Buckeyes haven't trailed in the Playoff for a second, and in their two losses, they never trailed to Oregon by more than 1 point or Michigan by more than 7. If this game comes down to the wire, one of these teams hasn't cracked since a bizarre giveaway game against Northern Illinois.

5. Heart of a Buckeye

Of course, this culture starts at the top, and the Irish seem to have finally found their man in former Buckeye linebacker Marcus Freeman. Freeman's had his share of speed bumps, including headscratching losses to Marshall, Stanford, and Northern Illinois. But he's led the Irish to their first major bowl wins since their New Year's 1994 consolation prize against Texas A&M. Brian Kelly was a step in the right direction, putting Notre Dame firmly back in national title contention after wandering the desert under Weis, Willingham, Davie, and even late Lou Holtz. But Freeman has proven that Notre Dame's record is not just the product of a weak regular season schedule; the Irish have hung with and dispatched the best the Playoff has to offer.