Standings
1) Schweinfurth 32-15 (4-7 upset)
2) Draper 31-16 (2-9 upset)
2) Hoying 31-16 (1-10 upset)
Oklahoma State Cowboys @ Texas Longhorns
Draper: Pokes vs. Horns. Is Texas morphing into the team they were supposed to be? Can they overcome the curse of GERG Robinson? Mike Gundy is a man, but can the Pokes take on a 'real' (maybe) team? This is the toughest game of the week to pick as these teams are pretty even in their mediocrity. OSU has beat up on the Little Sisters of the Poor and UT has taken down a strong Sooner squad. I'm going with the home team and the resurgence of the Mack Brown led Longhorns. Darrell K Royal stadium is the difference. OSU: 30--UT: 34
Hoying: So...much...orange...This game always makes me think of Texas's monster comeback against the Pokes during the Vince Young era, when he made a pump fake about 15 yards past the line of scrimmage and the linebacker jumped like he was Patrick Ewing trying to block Scottie Pippen in NBA Jam. Ah, memories. After an ugly, ugly start, the Longhorns are finally starting to live up to the preseason hype, rattling off 6 wins to start conference play. Oklahoma State has also been rolling merrily along after an ugly loss to West Virginia. The problem inherent in assessing these two teams is the same problem that plagues all Big 12 matchups: the good teams played all the crappy teams first, so it's hard to get a feel for how good the conference leaders really are. I see Oklahoma State as a slightly better version of Texas Tech: inflated record due to crappy opponents. Texas is battle-tested and ready for a fight. The Big 12 race shrinks to Texas vs. Baylor after a Longhorn victory. OSU: 27--UT: 30
Schweinfurth: Texas just isn't the Texas of old. I really don't think much of these two teams to be honest. While I do believe the Longhorns are still playing for Mac Brown's job, I just don't think Texas can score with the Cowboys. This will be entertaining but I'll take the other OSU. OSU: 42--UT: 38
Georgia Bulldogs @ Auburn Tigers
Draper: I'm gonna do it. I don't know why, but I have a feeling. UGA's defense is awful, but is Auburn ready for the pressure to mount? UGA is almost back to full strength and has been playing well over the last few weeks. I think Auburn is starting to look to the Iron Bowl but forgetting that Murray, Gurley, and Co. can score. The Bulldogs would be well advised to slow the game down and force Auburn into a knock-down drag-em-out fight. Auburn took down A&M but UGA (even though it's terrible) has a better D than the Aggies. Johnny Football lost with flash; can Gurley win with a blue-collar mentality? UGA: 30--Aub: 27
Hoying: Old man football's broken hip hasn't quite recovered enough to handle the hottest team in the SEC (yes, yes, other than Bama). I'm not sure Georgia would even win this game at full strength. In the year of the quarterback, Auburn has taken the SEC by storm with a punishing rushing attack, putting up at least 35 points against their last 5 opponents. In four of those matchups, the Tigers reached 45 (way to break the streak, Bert). That's bad news for a suspect Dawg defense. It doesn't matter what happens on the other side of the ball. Georgia simply can't stop Auburn or hope to keep up. Old and busted...new hotness. UGA: 24--Aub: 38
Schweinfurth: This is a game of the walking dead versus a very hot (possibly good) team. Let's face it, Georgia isn't the same team they were before that Tennessee game. Auburn has had a rejuvenation under Gus Mahlzon and I do believe in what he is building offensively. Georgia wasn't good on defense before the injuries and that continues into this week. Georgia keeps it close for a while but Auburn continues to roll towards the Iron Bowl. UGA:28--Aub: 40
Michigan State Spartans @ Nebraska Cornhuskers
Draper: Leaders on the line for real. A Spartan win essentially seals the Green and White's trip to Indy. The defense is for real, but the offense is showing signs of life. Don't get too excited; the Walrus still reigns, but Nebraska is not the answer to stop Sparty. Nebraska may have beaten UM (ha) but MSU is much better. Look for a suffocating Sparty YES win. MSU: 27--Neb: 10
Hoying: The B1G Leaders division race was over after the first game, with Ohio State grinding out a win over Wisconsin (shocker) to make for one of the most boring division races of the BCS era. The Legends, however, has just begun to clear up, and it seems that the winner of this matchup will be facing the Buckeyes in Indianapolis. Who has the edge? Both teams made Michigan's offense look pathetic, incompetent, lost, uninterested, weak, hopeless, and bad. But so did Akron. And UConn. Nebraska coach Bo Pelini salvaged his team's season from Bo Pelini land with a ridiculous Hail Mary reception against Northwestern, while Michigan State has been quietly mopping the floor with their B1G opponents (except the freaking Boilermakers for some reason). Normally, Lincoln has a magic force field around it that protects the Huskers from losing, but UCLA shattered it and Minnesota devoured the remains. You don't need to be a good QB to score on this Blackskirt defense. MSU: 24--Neb: 10
Schweinfurth: Question: What does Michigan State do really well at on defense? Answer: Stop the run. What does Nebraska do best on offense? Run the ball. It is really that simple. I know Michigan State's offense isn't great but it is effective enough (Spartyball?). This will be close only because of the Spartan offense is that bad. Sparty wins and sets up an OSU/MSU B1G Championship Game. MSU: 17--Neb: 9
Stanford Cardinal @ USC Trojans
Draper: Stanford is living large after taking down the Ducks, but the Trojans are quietly winning without any talk. Ed Orgeron is trying (desperately) to hang on while he can. The Trojans will jump out to an early lead as Stanford is really built to beat a small team like Oregon. When Stanford realizes they're in trouble, their will be just enough time to come back and squeak out the win over the horrible QB play in LA. Trojans fight, but Cardinal escape with their eyes locked on a potential Pac12 title. Stan: 27--USC: 24
Hoying: Seeing this matchup always puts a smile on my face as I'm transported back to that monumental upset in 2007. That was also the year that Michigan lost to Appalachian State (hot hot hot), but the Stanford-USC upset was arguably even bigger and easily the worst of Carroll's career. Since then, USC has beaten Stanford exactly once, in 2008, and the Trojans are in the midst of their first-ever 4 game losing skid to the Tree. Looks like a lock for 5 in a row, right? Not so fast. USC might be the most underrated and overlooked team in the country. Only the really puzzling loss to a not-as-bad-as-usual Washington State team sticks out on an otherwise decent resume. The defense has been great (outside of the Arizona State game) and interim (or is he?) coach Ed Orgeron seems to have the team believing they can live up to the recruiting hoopla. Stanford will still win; they're an excellent team on both sides of the ball and their backup center has The Shining (or something like that). But don't be surprised to see the Trojans put up quite a fight and catch some experts off-guard. Stan: 20--USC: 17
Schweinfurth: Stanford is fresh off the big win at Oregon and has had an extra few days to prepare for the Trojans. The Trojans, while looking better under a competent coach, are still bad. Stanford wins. Stan: 28--USC: 21
THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Illinois Fighting Illini
Draper: OSU almost always has trouble scoring in Champaign. Even if this is the case, the Illini have shown an aversion to scoring in Champaign as well. That being said, the ground game will take center stage as the Bucks steamroll a horribly overmatched foe. Nathan Scheelhouse has never lived up to the hype and this will be no different. 3 Buckeyes rush for 100 yards (let's go Miller, Hyde, and...Elliot I guess) and Illibuck retains a home in Columbus. OSU: 45--Ill: 13
Hoying: Whoo boy, another nail-biter. The Buckeyes don't traditionally score a lot of points in Champaign (under 30 every game since 1998) but they don't traditionally have Urban Meyer as their coach, either. This Illini defense is legendarily bad (think Purdue) and the Buckeyes have had two whole weeks to prepare...for Michigan, but they probably spent a day getting ready for Illinois, too. They should've watched game film of Indiana instead. Bucks win the Donatello trophy and keep rolling toward 13-0. OSU: 52--Ill: 10
Schweinfurth: Look, Illinois is bad. I mean "haven't won a game in the B1G since 2011" bad. Yes, their passing offense has shown signs of life but 600+ yards against a meh defense and 2 (!) touchdowns is just sad. If the wind is a factor Hyde and Miller run for 200 apiece. Even if the wind is a factor, Braxton still throws for 250. Buck keep on rolling.
OSU:63--Ill: 17
Upset Special
Draper: Duke over Miami (FL)
Hoying: Texas Tech over Baylor
Schweinfurth: Houston over Louisville
Friday, November 15, 2013
Thursday, November 14, 2013
Top 25 and Heisman Ballots - After Week 11
Rankings, as always, are based on what teams have done so far, not how we believe they'll finish.
Draper Top 25
1. Alabama
2. Florida State
3. Ohio State
4. Baylor
5. Stanford
6. Auburn
7. Clemson
8. Oregon
9. Missouri
10. South Carolina
11. Oklahoma State
12. Michigan State
13. UCF
14. Arizona State
15. Wisconsin
16. Fresno State17. Northern Illinois
18. UCLA
19. Louisville
20. Texas A&M
21. Texas
22. Oklahoma
23. LSU
24. Virginia Tech
25. Minnesota
Draper Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Johnny Manziel (QB--TAMU)
3. Bryce Petty (QB--Baylor)
Hoying Top 25
1. Alabama
2. Florida State
3. Ohio State
4. Baylor
5. Stanford
6. Auburn
7. South Carolina
8. Arizona State
9. Oregon
10. UCLA
11. UCF
12. Oklahoma
13. Clemson
14. Missouri
15. Michigan State
16. Texas
17. Oklahoma State
18. Fresno State
19. Northern Illinois
20. Notre Dame
21. Texas A&M
22. Mississippi
23. Wisconsin
24. Virginia Tech
25. Georgia
Hoying Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Johnny Manziel (QB--TAMU)
3. Marcus Mariota (QB--Ore)
[4. Bryce Petty (QB--Baylor)]
Schweinfurth Top 25
Schweinfurth Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Johnny Manziel (QB--TAMU)
3. Marcus Mariota (QB--Ore)
Draper Top 25
1. Alabama
2. Florida State
3. Ohio State
4. Baylor
5. Stanford
6. Auburn
7. Clemson
8. Oregon
9. Missouri
10. South Carolina
11. Oklahoma State
12. Michigan State
13. UCF
14. Arizona State
15. Wisconsin
16. Fresno State17. Northern Illinois
18. UCLA
19. Louisville
20. Texas A&M
21. Texas
22. Oklahoma
23. LSU
24. Virginia Tech
25. Minnesota
Draper Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Johnny Manziel (QB--TAMU)
3. Bryce Petty (QB--Baylor)
Hoying Top 25
1. Alabama
2. Florida State
3. Ohio State
4. Baylor
5. Stanford
6. Auburn
7. South Carolina
8. Arizona State
9. Oregon
10. UCLA
11. UCF
12. Oklahoma
13. Clemson
14. Missouri
15. Michigan State
16. Texas
17. Oklahoma State
18. Fresno State
19. Northern Illinois
20. Notre Dame
21. Texas A&M
22. Mississippi
23. Wisconsin
24. Virginia Tech
25. Georgia
Hoying Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Johnny Manziel (QB--TAMU)
3. Marcus Mariota (QB--Ore)
[4. Bryce Petty (QB--Baylor)]
Schweinfurth Top 25
2 1. Florida State
3 2.
Alabama
4 3.
Ohio State
5 4.
Baylor
6 5.
Clemson
7 6.
Stanford
7 7. Oregon
7 7. Oregon
8 8.
Missouri
1 9. Auburn
1 10. Fresno
State
1 11. UCLA
1 12. Wisconsin
13. Oklahoma
13. Oklahoma
1 14. Oklahoma
State
1 15. Michigan
State
1 16. South
Carolina
17. LSU
17. LSU
1 18. Texas
A&M
2 19. Georgia
20. Miami (FL)
20. Miami (FL)
2 21. UCF
2 22. Louisville
2 23. Northern
Illinois
2 24. Arizona
State
2 25. Minnesota
Schweinfurth Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Johnny Manziel (QB--TAMU)
3. Marcus Mariota (QB--Ore)
Tuesday, November 12, 2013
Why Stanford over OSU is stupid and 'the bet'
Ok everyone. Let's take a deep breath. We saw Stanford dominate Oregon for 50 minutes (and almost gag away a 26 point lead in 10 minutes...) and everyone in the media wants to jump them over OSU and Baylor. In fact, a friend of mine (let's call him G. Pyle to protect his identity) texted me that he'd 'bet his testicles' that Stanford would jump OSU in the BCS this week because 'the media hates us'. This may not be absolute nonsense as shown by Jesse Palmer's incessant need to "not discount the Utah loss...but they didn't play Stanford football!', but the thought of Stanford jumping is ludicrous.
Why? Let's take an objective view.
OSU is an undefeated team in a BCS conference. Yes, the B1G is down, but the facts speak for themselves. Also, the Buckeyes were ranked preseason number two. As stated in a recent College Football News column, this is the first time a team who started number two dropped to four without losing. Why, you ask, doesn't this permit Stanford to jump the Bucks? Let's compare resumes.
Stanford wins (in order of significance--subjective): Oregon, UCLA, ASU, Washington, Oregon State, WSU, Army, SJSU
OSU wins (in order of significance--subjective): Wisconsin, Iowa, Northwestern, Buffalo, Penn State, SDSU, Cal, Purdue, FAMU
Oregon vs. Wisconsin--What has Oregon done this year? The win over UCLA was nice, but other than that, the stupid 'eye test' is what helps the Ducks. Wisconsin should be 8-1 but the dumb Pac 12 refs messed it up. Either way, edge: Stanford (but it's closer than you think).
UCLA vs. Iowa--UCLA seems to be falling after a hot start, but their best win is over failing Nebraska (win % of teams UCLA beat=0.379--25-41) . They've lost their only 2 'tough' games. Iowa is 6-4 but the losses are to teams with a combined 3 losses (and one of those losses is the disputed Wisc. ASU game). Granted, Iowa's wins were against bad teams as well -- except Minn--but are these teams that different? Edge: Stanford
NW vs. Wash--I skipped to Washington because these teams match so well. Both NW and Wash were ranked 16 and 15 respectively when OSU and Stanford beat them and 'ended' their seasons. NW hasn't won since (losing on a Hail Mary--but all losses came to teams with winning records) and Washington followed the loss to Stanford with blowout losses to Oregon and ASU before beating Pac 12 bottom feeders. I still believe NW is a decent team, but the loss in their biggest home game EVER killed their hopes. I say this is a push
ASU vs. Buffalo--Take the jersey names away. ASU's has 'wins' over Wisc (disputed) and USC--causing Kiffin's canning. Buffalo has 2 losses...to undefeated teams. Yeah, their wins don't wow anyone, but they're trouncing every in their path (except Stony Brook). Neither has really proven anything, but the 'win' over Wisc is better than Buffalo's impressive record. Slight Edge: Stanford
OregState vs. Penn State: PSU's losses came to 2 BCS front runners and another division contender. Oregon State lost to Eastern Washington....yeah. Both teams have equivalent 'bad' wins, but the loss to EWU kills the Beaver's argument. Slight Edge: OSU
The rest--The other teams don't matter. Push
OK. So it appears that Stanford has the clear edge in win quality over OSU when all is said and done. Now to add in the last component: Losses
Stanford (key losses)--Utah
OSU (key losses)--none found
Herein lies the rub. Stanford lost to Utah. People may 'forget' it now and try to ignore it, but those that matter, cannot. This blemish ends all argument. Yes, they have (slightly) better wins, but it just doesn't come close to outweighing a bad loss (or any loss). I don't care if they weren't 'playing Stanford football' that day. They lost. It counts. Are they better than OSU? Maybe, but that's not the issue. The goal of the BCS should be (and more or less, is) who is the most deserving? The best team in ANY playoff scenario doesn't always win...and the BCS is a two-team playoff. Any playoff scenario should try to match the top deserving teams--of which, Stanford is not.
On any given Saturday, anyone of the following: Bama, FSU, OSU, Baylor, Stanford, Clemson, Oregon, and Auburn), could be the best team in the country, but it doesn't matter. Two get a shot and Stanford, Clemson, Oregon, and Auburn have already blown their chance to be considered at this time. If the argument devolves to choosing among 1 loss teams, then the conversation changes.
Note: What about Northern Illinois and Fresno State? Yes, they are undefeated, but this is the 'Boise State' scenario. When you have no wins of any note (and yes, wins over Wisconsin--Bucks, Oregon--Stanford, UCLA--Oregon, Clemson--FSU, LSU--Bama, UGA--Clemson, Oklahoma--Baylor are 'wins of note'), this disqualifies you from an 'undefeated argument'. If, however, there was only 1 undefeated team (or none) from power conferences, NIU and Fresno State must be discussed (probably won't win, but deserve to be in the conversation).
Right now: it's FSU and Bama. Their resumes clearly beat all other contenders. If one loses, there will be an argument between OSU and Baylor. If another spot opens...get ready for a wild ride--exactly what is expected and what makes college football so fun. Let the system work itself out, but don't let one game overwhelm the body of work from a season.
That being said, anyone that wants to collect on the 'bet' with Mr. Pyle is welcome to have at it.
Why? Let's take an objective view.
OSU is an undefeated team in a BCS conference. Yes, the B1G is down, but the facts speak for themselves. Also, the Buckeyes were ranked preseason number two. As stated in a recent College Football News column, this is the first time a team who started number two dropped to four without losing. Why, you ask, doesn't this permit Stanford to jump the Bucks? Let's compare resumes.
Stanford wins (in order of significance--subjective): Oregon, UCLA, ASU, Washington, Oregon State, WSU, Army, SJSU
OSU wins (in order of significance--subjective): Wisconsin, Iowa, Northwestern, Buffalo, Penn State, SDSU, Cal, Purdue, FAMU
Oregon vs. Wisconsin--What has Oregon done this year? The win over UCLA was nice, but other than that, the stupid 'eye test' is what helps the Ducks. Wisconsin should be 8-1 but the dumb Pac 12 refs messed it up. Either way, edge: Stanford (but it's closer than you think).
UCLA vs. Iowa--UCLA seems to be falling after a hot start, but their best win is over failing Nebraska (win % of teams UCLA beat=0.379--25-41) . They've lost their only 2 'tough' games. Iowa is 6-4 but the losses are to teams with a combined 3 losses (and one of those losses is the disputed Wisc. ASU game). Granted, Iowa's wins were against bad teams as well -- except Minn--but are these teams that different? Edge: Stanford
NW vs. Wash--I skipped to Washington because these teams match so well. Both NW and Wash were ranked 16 and 15 respectively when OSU and Stanford beat them and 'ended' their seasons. NW hasn't won since (losing on a Hail Mary--but all losses came to teams with winning records) and Washington followed the loss to Stanford with blowout losses to Oregon and ASU before beating Pac 12 bottom feeders. I still believe NW is a decent team, but the loss in their biggest home game EVER killed their hopes. I say this is a push
ASU vs. Buffalo--Take the jersey names away. ASU's has 'wins' over Wisc (disputed) and USC--causing Kiffin's canning. Buffalo has 2 losses...to undefeated teams. Yeah, their wins don't wow anyone, but they're trouncing every in their path (except Stony Brook). Neither has really proven anything, but the 'win' over Wisc is better than Buffalo's impressive record. Slight Edge: Stanford
OregState vs. Penn State: PSU's losses came to 2 BCS front runners and another division contender. Oregon State lost to Eastern Washington....yeah. Both teams have equivalent 'bad' wins, but the loss to EWU kills the Beaver's argument. Slight Edge: OSU
The rest--The other teams don't matter. Push
OK. So it appears that Stanford has the clear edge in win quality over OSU when all is said and done. Now to add in the last component: Losses
Stanford (key losses)--Utah
OSU (key losses)--none found
Herein lies the rub. Stanford lost to Utah. People may 'forget' it now and try to ignore it, but those that matter, cannot. This blemish ends all argument. Yes, they have (slightly) better wins, but it just doesn't come close to outweighing a bad loss (or any loss). I don't care if they weren't 'playing Stanford football' that day. They lost. It counts. Are they better than OSU? Maybe, but that's not the issue. The goal of the BCS should be (and more or less, is) who is the most deserving? The best team in ANY playoff scenario doesn't always win...and the BCS is a two-team playoff. Any playoff scenario should try to match the top deserving teams--of which, Stanford is not.
On any given Saturday, anyone of the following: Bama, FSU, OSU, Baylor, Stanford, Clemson, Oregon, and Auburn), could be the best team in the country, but it doesn't matter. Two get a shot and Stanford, Clemson, Oregon, and Auburn have already blown their chance to be considered at this time. If the argument devolves to choosing among 1 loss teams, then the conversation changes.
Note: What about Northern Illinois and Fresno State? Yes, they are undefeated, but this is the 'Boise State' scenario. When you have no wins of any note (and yes, wins over Wisconsin--Bucks, Oregon--Stanford, UCLA--Oregon, Clemson--FSU, LSU--Bama, UGA--Clemson, Oklahoma--Baylor are 'wins of note'), this disqualifies you from an 'undefeated argument'. If, however, there was only 1 undefeated team (or none) from power conferences, NIU and Fresno State must be discussed (probably won't win, but deserve to be in the conversation).
Right now: it's FSU and Bama. Their resumes clearly beat all other contenders. If one loses, there will be an argument between OSU and Baylor. If another spot opens...get ready for a wild ride--exactly what is expected and what makes college football so fun. Let the system work itself out, but don't let one game overwhelm the body of work from a season.
That being said, anyone that wants to collect on the 'bet' with Mr. Pyle is welcome to have at it.
Wednesday, November 06, 2013
Grading the Bucks--Week 10: Purdue
Another crappy opponent, another beatdown. Not much to say. Let's be honest; Purdue is the second worst opponent on the schedule (sorry FAMU, you're still #1).
Offense: A
Braxton, Hyde, and ... Heuerman? Purdue clearly didn't know we had a tight end. Braxton failed to get the elusive 300 yard passing game because he had 0 snaps in the second half. Hyde, however, still reached 100 yards on 8 carries (I believe). The best thing to take away was Ezekiel Elliot looked REALLY good. Looks like OSU will have a nice back to replace Hyde next year.
Defense: A
Shutout...can't do much better. Defense scores again...can't do much better. Still some softness, but Purdue wasn't exposing it. Moving on.
Special Teams: A
Woo. No returns on punts. I still don't know why we don't bury every kickoff in the endzone to prevent a 'get lucky' moment from a bad team, but Elliot's beatdown on the kickoff was a thing of beauty. Moving on.
Coaching: A
I honestly don't remember much of this game because it was over in 5 minutes, but I loved what I saw from Vrabel and Coombs (as usual) keeping the juice flowing against a crappy opponent. Total focus is needed for this team to avoid slipups (like Northwestern--kind of--or Purdue last year).
Overall: A
Purdue sucks. On to a bye which might be a better opponent (might be tougher than Illinois too).
Offense: A
Braxton, Hyde, and ... Heuerman? Purdue clearly didn't know we had a tight end. Braxton failed to get the elusive 300 yard passing game because he had 0 snaps in the second half. Hyde, however, still reached 100 yards on 8 carries (I believe). The best thing to take away was Ezekiel Elliot looked REALLY good. Looks like OSU will have a nice back to replace Hyde next year.
Defense: A
Shutout...can't do much better. Defense scores again...can't do much better. Still some softness, but Purdue wasn't exposing it. Moving on.
Special Teams: A
Woo. No returns on punts. I still don't know why we don't bury every kickoff in the endzone to prevent a 'get lucky' moment from a bad team, but Elliot's beatdown on the kickoff was a thing of beauty. Moving on.
Coaching: A
I honestly don't remember much of this game because it was over in 5 minutes, but I loved what I saw from Vrabel and Coombs (as usual) keeping the juice flowing against a crappy opponent. Total focus is needed for this team to avoid slipups (like Northwestern--kind of--or Purdue last year).
Overall: A
Purdue sucks. On to a bye which might be a better opponent (might be tougher than Illinois too).
Week 11: Clear the Path to a Buckeye Title
The Buckeyes, sadly, are not in action this Saturday. However, 3 undefeated teams face huge tests against highly ranked opponents. A day of inaction might be able to do what 2 blowout wins couldn't for OSU.
Standings
1) Schweinfurth 29-13 (3-7 upset)
2) Draper 28-14 (2-8 upset)
3) Hoying 27-15 (1-9 upset)
Oregon Ducks @ Stanford Cardinal
Draper: Is Stanford really as good as people think? Can Oregon smash a team with a pulse? This game will answer a lot of questions (or will it?) and for some unknown reason, it's hidden on a Thurs. night. Mariota has been fantastic against subpar...ok, bad...defenses. Stanford is overrated in my opinion, but still the best team the Ducks have faced by far. Kevin Hogan has quietly had a nice 'game-manager' type season and keeps the Cardinal in the discussion. Stanford ruined the dream for the Ducks last year and I see the Ducks returning the favor in Palo Alto. Stanford's offense will score...but so will Oregon. UO: 41--Stan:31
Hoying: Forget Florida State - Clemson and Florida State - Miami; this might be the premier non-bowl matchup of the year. The Cardinal offense hasn't been wowing anybody (where oh where have you gone, Toby Gerhart and Andrew Luck), and they suffered a puzzling loss in Rice-Eccles Stadium, but their defense is probably tops in the conference. That's good news, because it'll take a stellar defense and a good deal of luck to slow down Super Mariota and the mighty Duck juggernaut. Oregon hasn't forgotten about Stanford wrecking their dream season last year in Eugene, and they'll be itching to prove to the nation that they belong in the BCS's coveted #2 slot. One potential X-factor: Stanford's battle toughness. The Cardinal have been tested again and again this season and have 4 pretty good wins to show for it. Are the Ducks tough enough to come out of Palo Alto victorious? I hope not, but I think so. UO: 31--Stan: 24
Schweinfurth: Everyone keeps saying that Stanford is the team that will knock Oregon off their perch (out of their pond?). Look, Stanford plays a really tough style that has been Oregon’s kryptonite. The difference is, this Cardinal team isn’t that good. Stanford still doesn’t have legitimate weapons on the outside on offense and Kevin Hogan is doing a lot with very little. You have to score points and get turnovers to beat Oregon and I don’t think this Cardinal team has it in them. Sad day for the Buckeyes ORE: 38--Stan: 20
Oklahoma Sooners @ Baylor Bears
Draper: This is essentially a do or die game for Big Game Bob and Sooners. Win and you're right in the mix...lose and good night. Baylor has been scoring at will with Seastrunk and Petty, but my high school plays better defense than their opponents. Can Baylor survive the spotlight without RGIII? I'm going to say no. They will score, but the big game experience of the Sooners (I can't believe I'm saying that), will carry them to a very close win. Waco will be in a frenzy, but the big boy coming to town signals the clock striking midnight. OU: 35--Baylor: 31
Hoying: Two weeks ago I made a bold prediction that undefeated Texas Tech was about to take a nosedive after finally facing the meat of the Big 12 schedule. This weekend the Bears find themselves in their own put-up-or-shut-up moment in front of a national Thursday night audience. The Sooners are no stranger to big games this season (that win over Notre Dame looks better every week) but they haven't seen anyone as sharp or as hungry as Baylor. QB Bryce Petty has been shredding terrible terrible defenses for 18 TDs and only 1 INT, and the ground game headed by Lache Seastrunk (might as well be Bismo Funyuns) is no slouch either. Oklahoma might still be the better squad, but I don't trust Big Game Bob outside of Norman. Baylor announces their official BCS candidacy with a win over Boomer Sooner. OU: 34--Baylor: 35
Schweinfurth: Have you figured out who I think is the best team in the Big XII yet? Hint: It’s one of these two teams. Baylor has been just flat rolling teams the past two years and has done so quietly. Bear QB Bryce Petty stepped into RGIII’s shoes and then broke the scoreboard. This offense is operating with more explosiveness than Ohio State and Oregon. The Sooners will have their hands full in this one. Baylor won’t jump Ohio State when they win, but that gap will sure close. OU: 35--Bay: 63
BYU Cougars @ Wisconsin Badgers
Draper: All I really remember of the Cougars are them blowing Texas out of the water. The Badgers are just sneaking around with their '2' losses (stupid Pac12 refs). I don't see Camp Randall being particularly kind to the visiting Cougs. Melvin Gordon and James White will run all over them. The Badger D is also pretty darn good. Wisky rolls and keeps the dream of the BCS alive. BYU: 20--Wisc: 34
Hoying: What an oddity the Cougars are. One week they're losing to awful Virginia, the next they're crushing Texas. BYU has been cruising under the radar for some time now, quietly stringing together a nice chain of wins over Utah State, Georgia Tech, Houston, and Boise State. Now they've had two weeks to prepare for a Wisconsin squad that seems to be consistently improving as the season goes on. All you old-timers should enjoy this game: a couple of brand-name programs battling while probably combining to throw for 150 yards. Don't forget, this is the same BYU team that ran for 550 yards against Texas, and Wisconsin didn't get any last-minute recruits from NC State to shore up their passing game this year. Poor Abbie Doobie. Bucky won't need you to dispatch the Cougs. BYU: 17--Wisc: 24
Schweinfurth: Look, BYU has been playing well, but Wisconsin is (debatably) the second best team in the B1G right now. The Badgers are just going to give the Cougars a steady dose of Melvin Gordon and James White. And true to Bucky fashion, will be overly successful with it. Remember that Bert doesn’t coach this team any longer and Gary Anderson will actually stick with a game plan that works. BYU: 10--Wisc: 35
Virginia Tech Hokies @ Miami Hurricanes
Draper: I suppose this argument comes down to 'Which loss of/to Duke is worse?' The Hokies are faceplanting every week it seems after a promising start that made Bama look good. Losing to Duke....in football...what? Then there's the Hurricanes who kept squeaking by until they were annihilated by the Noles. Oh yeah, they lost their best player in Duke Johnson for the year. Stephen Morris and logan Thomas are very similar QBs in their complete lack of consistency. Normally, I'd go with the home team....but Miami's home field advantage is like a dentist's office in West Virginia--nonexistent. Miami's loss of Duke is more painful. Hokies win to stay alive in the Coastal race. VT: 24--UM: 17
Hoying: Oh-ee-ay! Tail Spin! Oh-ee-oh! Tail Spin! After very promising starts, these two teams are in danger of falling to the middle of the ACC Coastal pack (leaving the door open for the Dukies baby!). One ship will be righted this weekend, while the other will, I suppose, count themselves lucky that they don't have to play Florida State at season's end. So who has the edge? Virginia Tech's defense looked special before being exposed at the hands of Boston College RB Andre Williams. Unfortunately, Miami's super RB Duke Johnson is out indefinitely, and the Hurricanes' suddenly one-dimensional offense won't be able to move the ball this weekend. Always a shame to see the 'Canes lose. VT: 20--UM: 13
Schweinfurth: Miami is a decent (not great) ACC team who got their tails whipped by an elite team. We can all proclaim that the “U” is not back. To me, however, Virginia Tech has turned into an also ran in the ACC. Gone are the days of a manageable offense with stout D and Beamerball. These days Virginia Tech seems to slog their way on offense. Miama has a formula to win games like this and it’s called “give Duke Johnson the ball.” They will and they will win because of it. Poster note: Tyler clearly didn't see that Duke Johnson has a broken ankle. Giving him the ball is not recommended VT: 13--UM: 20
Louisiana State Tigers @ Alabama Crimson Tide
Draper: LSU's best game this year....a loss to UGA. As the Oracle would say: That's a great game...in 2011. The Tigeauxrs have done nothing this year of note. Their living on name alone. Mettenberger has looked strong, but against Bama...I'll stick with Saban. The Tide have 1 big win, but have smothered everyone else. Roll Tide at home, y'all. This is payback for 2011 (even though they go revenge when it counted). McCarron for Heisman? He's number 4 for me. LSU: 16--Bama: 34
Hoying: Every time I see this game on the schedule, I'm reminded of the abomination that was the 2011 season (never forget). There's a bit more separation between these two teams than we've seen in previous years. In particular, LSU's defense has taken a significant step backwards. Don't look for a 9-6 overtime thriller this year. LSU under Les Miles is capable of snakebiting any opponent, but Saban has had 4 weeks to get ready for this one. Y'all are Tide bait. LSU: 13--Ala: 27
Schweinfurth: This isn’t your LSU teams of the past. They can actually move the ball but that defense is meh (and don’t give me this “it’s the SEC” BS). Alabama has been quietly efficient and that defense has been outstanding outside of letting Johnny sign my Football run wild. Alabama is still coached by Saban and LSU by a moron. LSU does enough to stay close but Bama pulls away late. LSU: 17--Bama: 27
Upset Special
Draper: Arizona over UCLA
Hoying: Houston over UCF
Schweinfurth: Pitt over Notre Dame
Standings
1) Schweinfurth 29-13 (3-7 upset)
2) Draper 28-14 (2-8 upset)
3) Hoying 27-15 (1-9 upset)
Oregon Ducks @ Stanford Cardinal
Draper: Is Stanford really as good as people think? Can Oregon smash a team with a pulse? This game will answer a lot of questions (or will it?) and for some unknown reason, it's hidden on a Thurs. night. Mariota has been fantastic against subpar...ok, bad...defenses. Stanford is overrated in my opinion, but still the best team the Ducks have faced by far. Kevin Hogan has quietly had a nice 'game-manager' type season and keeps the Cardinal in the discussion. Stanford ruined the dream for the Ducks last year and I see the Ducks returning the favor in Palo Alto. Stanford's offense will score...but so will Oregon. UO: 41--Stan:31
Hoying: Forget Florida State - Clemson and Florida State - Miami; this might be the premier non-bowl matchup of the year. The Cardinal offense hasn't been wowing anybody (where oh where have you gone, Toby Gerhart and Andrew Luck), and they suffered a puzzling loss in Rice-Eccles Stadium, but their defense is probably tops in the conference. That's good news, because it'll take a stellar defense and a good deal of luck to slow down Super Mariota and the mighty Duck juggernaut. Oregon hasn't forgotten about Stanford wrecking their dream season last year in Eugene, and they'll be itching to prove to the nation that they belong in the BCS's coveted #2 slot. One potential X-factor: Stanford's battle toughness. The Cardinal have been tested again and again this season and have 4 pretty good wins to show for it. Are the Ducks tough enough to come out of Palo Alto victorious? I hope not, but I think so. UO: 31--Stan: 24
Schweinfurth: Everyone keeps saying that Stanford is the team that will knock Oregon off their perch (out of their pond?). Look, Stanford plays a really tough style that has been Oregon’s kryptonite. The difference is, this Cardinal team isn’t that good. Stanford still doesn’t have legitimate weapons on the outside on offense and Kevin Hogan is doing a lot with very little. You have to score points and get turnovers to beat Oregon and I don’t think this Cardinal team has it in them. Sad day for the Buckeyes ORE: 38--Stan: 20
Oklahoma Sooners @ Baylor Bears
Draper: This is essentially a do or die game for Big Game Bob and Sooners. Win and you're right in the mix...lose and good night. Baylor has been scoring at will with Seastrunk and Petty, but my high school plays better defense than their opponents. Can Baylor survive the spotlight without RGIII? I'm going to say no. They will score, but the big game experience of the Sooners (I can't believe I'm saying that), will carry them to a very close win. Waco will be in a frenzy, but the big boy coming to town signals the clock striking midnight. OU: 35--Baylor: 31
Hoying: Two weeks ago I made a bold prediction that undefeated Texas Tech was about to take a nosedive after finally facing the meat of the Big 12 schedule. This weekend the Bears find themselves in their own put-up-or-shut-up moment in front of a national Thursday night audience. The Sooners are no stranger to big games this season (that win over Notre Dame looks better every week) but they haven't seen anyone as sharp or as hungry as Baylor. QB Bryce Petty has been shredding terrible terrible defenses for 18 TDs and only 1 INT, and the ground game headed by Lache Seastrunk (might as well be Bismo Funyuns) is no slouch either. Oklahoma might still be the better squad, but I don't trust Big Game Bob outside of Norman. Baylor announces their official BCS candidacy with a win over Boomer Sooner. OU: 34--Baylor: 35
Schweinfurth: Have you figured out who I think is the best team in the Big XII yet? Hint: It’s one of these two teams. Baylor has been just flat rolling teams the past two years and has done so quietly. Bear QB Bryce Petty stepped into RGIII’s shoes and then broke the scoreboard. This offense is operating with more explosiveness than Ohio State and Oregon. The Sooners will have their hands full in this one. Baylor won’t jump Ohio State when they win, but that gap will sure close. OU: 35--Bay: 63
BYU Cougars @ Wisconsin Badgers
Draper: All I really remember of the Cougars are them blowing Texas out of the water. The Badgers are just sneaking around with their '2' losses (stupid Pac12 refs). I don't see Camp Randall being particularly kind to the visiting Cougs. Melvin Gordon and James White will run all over them. The Badger D is also pretty darn good. Wisky rolls and keeps the dream of the BCS alive. BYU: 20--Wisc: 34
Hoying: What an oddity the Cougars are. One week they're losing to awful Virginia, the next they're crushing Texas. BYU has been cruising under the radar for some time now, quietly stringing together a nice chain of wins over Utah State, Georgia Tech, Houston, and Boise State. Now they've had two weeks to prepare for a Wisconsin squad that seems to be consistently improving as the season goes on. All you old-timers should enjoy this game: a couple of brand-name programs battling while probably combining to throw for 150 yards. Don't forget, this is the same BYU team that ran for 550 yards against Texas, and Wisconsin didn't get any last-minute recruits from NC State to shore up their passing game this year. Poor Abbie Doobie. Bucky won't need you to dispatch the Cougs. BYU: 17--Wisc: 24
Schweinfurth: Look, BYU has been playing well, but Wisconsin is (debatably) the second best team in the B1G right now. The Badgers are just going to give the Cougars a steady dose of Melvin Gordon and James White. And true to Bucky fashion, will be overly successful with it. Remember that Bert doesn’t coach this team any longer and Gary Anderson will actually stick with a game plan that works. BYU: 10--Wisc: 35
Virginia Tech Hokies @ Miami Hurricanes
Draper: I suppose this argument comes down to 'Which loss of/to Duke is worse?' The Hokies are faceplanting every week it seems after a promising start that made Bama look good. Losing to Duke....in football...what? Then there's the Hurricanes who kept squeaking by until they were annihilated by the Noles. Oh yeah, they lost their best player in Duke Johnson for the year. Stephen Morris and logan Thomas are very similar QBs in their complete lack of consistency. Normally, I'd go with the home team....but Miami's home field advantage is like a dentist's office in West Virginia--nonexistent. Miami's loss of Duke is more painful. Hokies win to stay alive in the Coastal race. VT: 24--UM: 17
Hoying: Oh-ee-ay! Tail Spin! Oh-ee-oh! Tail Spin! After very promising starts, these two teams are in danger of falling to the middle of the ACC Coastal pack (leaving the door open for the Dukies baby!). One ship will be righted this weekend, while the other will, I suppose, count themselves lucky that they don't have to play Florida State at season's end. So who has the edge? Virginia Tech's defense looked special before being exposed at the hands of Boston College RB Andre Williams. Unfortunately, Miami's super RB Duke Johnson is out indefinitely, and the Hurricanes' suddenly one-dimensional offense won't be able to move the ball this weekend. Always a shame to see the 'Canes lose. VT: 20--UM: 13
Schweinfurth: Miami is a decent (not great) ACC team who got their tails whipped by an elite team. We can all proclaim that the “U” is not back. To me, however, Virginia Tech has turned into an also ran in the ACC. Gone are the days of a manageable offense with stout D and Beamerball. These days Virginia Tech seems to slog their way on offense. Miama has a formula to win games like this and it’s called “give Duke Johnson the ball.” They will and they will win because of it. Poster note: Tyler clearly didn't see that Duke Johnson has a broken ankle. Giving him the ball is not recommended VT: 13--UM: 20
Louisiana State Tigers @ Alabama Crimson Tide
Draper: LSU's best game this year....a loss to UGA. As the Oracle would say: That's a great game...in 2011. The Tigeauxrs have done nothing this year of note. Their living on name alone. Mettenberger has looked strong, but against Bama...I'll stick with Saban. The Tide have 1 big win, but have smothered everyone else. Roll Tide at home, y'all. This is payback for 2011 (even though they go revenge when it counted). McCarron for Heisman? He's number 4 for me. LSU: 16--Bama: 34
Hoying: Every time I see this game on the schedule, I'm reminded of the abomination that was the 2011 season (never forget). There's a bit more separation between these two teams than we've seen in previous years. In particular, LSU's defense has taken a significant step backwards. Don't look for a 9-6 overtime thriller this year. LSU under Les Miles is capable of snakebiting any opponent, but Saban has had 4 weeks to get ready for this one. Y'all are Tide bait. LSU: 13--Ala: 27
Schweinfurth: This isn’t your LSU teams of the past. They can actually move the ball but that defense is meh (and don’t give me this “it’s the SEC” BS). Alabama has been quietly efficient and that defense has been outstanding outside of letting Johnny sign my Football run wild. Alabama is still coached by Saban and LSU by a moron. LSU does enough to stay close but Bama pulls away late. LSU: 17--Bama: 27
Upset Special
Draper: Arizona over UCLA
Hoying: Houston over UCF
Schweinfurth: Pitt over Notre Dame
Top 25 and Heisman Ballots - After Week 10
Rankings, as always, are based on what teams have done so far, not how we believe they'll finish.
Draper Top 25
1. Florida State
2. Alabama
3. Oregon
4. Ohio State
5. Baylor
6. Clemson
7. Stanford
8. Auburn
9. Oklahoma
10. UCF
11. Michigan State
12. South Carolina
13. Notre Dame
14. Wisconsin
15. Arizona State
16. LSU
17. Northern Illinois
18. Fresno State
19. Miami (FL)
20. Oklahoma State
21. BYU
22. Texas A&M
23. Michigan
24. Louisville
25. Texas
Draper Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)--His leadership on the field after the 'eye-gouge' solidified the top spot
2. Marcus Mariota (QB--Ore)
3. Johnny Manziel (QB--TAMU)
Hoying Top 25
1. Florida State
2. Alabama
3. Oregon
4. Ohio State
5. Stanford
6. Oklahoma
7. Auburn
8. UCF
9. Michigan State
10. Notre Dame
11. Clemson
12. Baylor
13. South Carolina
14. Arizona State
15. BYU
16. Missouri
17. Miami (FL)
18. Michigan
19. Oklahoma State
20. Fresno State
21. Northern Illinois
22. Louisville
23. Texas
24. LSU
25. UCLA
Hoying Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Marcus Mariota (QB--Ore)
3. Johnny Manziel (QB--TAMU)
Schweinfurth Top 25
Schweinfurth Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Marcus Mariota (QB--Ore)
Draper Top 25
1. Florida State
2. Alabama
3. Oregon
4. Ohio State
5. Baylor
6. Clemson
7. Stanford
8. Auburn
9. Oklahoma
10. UCF
11. Michigan State
12. South Carolina
13. Notre Dame
14. Wisconsin
15. Arizona State
16. LSU
17. Northern Illinois
18. Fresno State
19. Miami (FL)
20. Oklahoma State
21. BYU
22. Texas A&M
23. Michigan
24. Louisville
25. Texas
Draper Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)--His leadership on the field after the 'eye-gouge' solidified the top spot
2. Marcus Mariota (QB--Ore)
3. Johnny Manziel (QB--TAMU)
Hoying Top 25
1. Florida State
2. Alabama
3. Oregon
4. Ohio State
5. Stanford
6. Oklahoma
7. Auburn
8. UCF
9. Michigan State
10. Notre Dame
11. Clemson
12. Baylor
13. South Carolina
14. Arizona State
15. BYU
16. Missouri
17. Miami (FL)
18. Michigan
19. Oklahoma State
20. Fresno State
21. Northern Illinois
22. Louisville
23. Texas
24. LSU
25. UCLA
Hoying Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Marcus Mariota (QB--Ore)
3. Johnny Manziel (QB--TAMU)
Schweinfurth Top 25
1 1.
Oregon
2 2. Florida State
3 3.
Alabama
4 4.
Ohio State
5 5.
Baylor
6 6.
Clemson
7 7.
Stanford
8 8.
Missouri
9 9.
Oklahoma
1 10. Auburn
1 11. Miami
(FL)
1 12. LSU
1 13. Fresno
State
1 14. UCLA
1 15. Wisconsin
1 16. Oklahoma
State
1 17. Michigan
State
1 18. South
Carolina
1 19. Texas
A&M
2 20. Georgia
2 21. UCF
2 22. Louisville
2 23. Northern
Illinois
2 24. Arizona
State
2 25. Minnesota
Schweinfurth Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Marcus Mariota (QB--Ore)
Sunday, November 03, 2013
BCS Contenders: Blind Resume Analysis
By now, it's become clear that there are 5 undefeated teams vying for 2 spots in the BCS National Championship Game in Pasadena. Each represents one of the 5 "power conferences": Florida State from the ACC, Baylor from the Big 12, Ohio State from the Big Ten, Oregon from the Pac-12, and Alabama from the SEC.
The national consensus is that Alabama and Oregon are firmly in the driver's seat to claim the coveted two seats at the championship table. There's no doubt that these teams face the toughest upcoming schedules, with Alabama still having to play LSU, Auburn, and either Missouri or South Carolina, while Oregon must face Stanford, Oregon State, and (probably) Arizona State.
But I'm not interested in predicting the future here (weekly football picks notwithstanding). I'm interested in what the teams have done to this point (in my view, the only legitimate factor in creating football rankings). If you watch ESPN (or any other sports network), you'll hear something like, "Well, based on what the teams have done so far, Alabama is clearly #1, and Oregon is probably #2, or maybe Florida State, and these are really the only 3 teams in the discussion." But do the facts support this analysis? Let's take a look at the resumes of the 5 undefeated BCS contenders and decide for ourselves.
Each team will be assessed based on FBS opponents' aggregate win-loss record (not counting the losses against the team in question), number of wins over opponents with winning records, and average scoring margin. We'll also look at each team's best overall win so far this season.
Again, these resumes have nothing to do with future opponents, because (1) until you beat a team, it makes no sense to get credit for having them on your schedule, and (2) you never know whether a future opponent will tank before you play them.
The resumes (order randomized):
TEAM A
Opponents' record: 31-31
Wins over teams with winning records: 3
Scoring margin: 31.5 ppg
Best win: 2-loss power conference team (on the road)
TEAM B
Opponents' record: 32-27
Wins over teams with winning records: 4
Scoring margin: 25.6 ppg
Best win: 2-loss power conference team (at home)
TEAM C
Opponents' record: 22-22
Wins over teams with winning records: 1
Scoring margin: 45.0 ppg
Best win: 2-loss mid-major team (at home)
TEAM D
Opponents' record: 25-28
Wins over teams with winning records: 2
Scoring margin: 35.3 ppg
Best win: 2-loss power conference team (at home)
TEAM E
Opponents' record: 34-17
Wins over teams with winning records: 3
Scoring margin: 36.6 ppg
Best win: 2 wins over 1-loss power conference teams (one at home, one on the road)
If I asked you to rank these five teams, what order would you choose? You'd probably notice that teams C and E are pretty extreme outliers compared to the rest. Team C is clearly 5th best, with no quality wins (though they have been blowing their terrible opponents away). Team E is clearly far out front, with a severely lopsided opponent win-loss ratio, the two best wins, and a higher scoring margin than teams A, B, and D.
A, B, and D are harder to distinguish. Team A has a nice road win, Team B has the best opponent win-loss ratio, and Team D has the highest scoring margin (though the weakest schedule). At the risk of making these teams' identities even more obvious, let's look at each one's second best win.
TEAM A: 3-loss power conference team (neutral site)
TEAM B: 3-loss power conference team (at home)
TEAM D: 3-loss power conference team (on the road)
So, Team A has a nice road win, a decent neutral site win, and a 3rd quality win. All of Team B's good wins appear to be at home, but their overall opponent quality is the best. Team D has a nice home win and a decent road win, but that's it. Who's the best? Difficult to say.
The purpose of this post is not to claim that there's a clear hierarchy to the 5 undefeated teams. I don't think Teams A, B, and D can be easily distinguished. However, what is plain after this analysis is that the talking heads' narrative should sound a little more like this: "Well, Team E is undeniably #1, and it's a real dogfight between Team A, Team B, and Team D for the second spot. Team C has some work to do in order to be in the discussion."
By the way, here are the teams' identities:
Team A = Alabama
Team B = Ohio State
Team C = Baylor
Team D = Oregon
Team E = Florida State
Check back later in the week to see our rankings.
The national consensus is that Alabama and Oregon are firmly in the driver's seat to claim the coveted two seats at the championship table. There's no doubt that these teams face the toughest upcoming schedules, with Alabama still having to play LSU, Auburn, and either Missouri or South Carolina, while Oregon must face Stanford, Oregon State, and (probably) Arizona State.
But I'm not interested in predicting the future here (weekly football picks notwithstanding). I'm interested in what the teams have done to this point (in my view, the only legitimate factor in creating football rankings). If you watch ESPN (or any other sports network), you'll hear something like, "Well, based on what the teams have done so far, Alabama is clearly #1, and Oregon is probably #2, or maybe Florida State, and these are really the only 3 teams in the discussion." But do the facts support this analysis? Let's take a look at the resumes of the 5 undefeated BCS contenders and decide for ourselves.
Each team will be assessed based on FBS opponents' aggregate win-loss record (not counting the losses against the team in question), number of wins over opponents with winning records, and average scoring margin. We'll also look at each team's best overall win so far this season.
Again, these resumes have nothing to do with future opponents, because (1) until you beat a team, it makes no sense to get credit for having them on your schedule, and (2) you never know whether a future opponent will tank before you play them.
The resumes (order randomized):
TEAM A
Opponents' record: 31-31
Wins over teams with winning records: 3
Scoring margin: 31.5 ppg
Best win: 2-loss power conference team (on the road)
TEAM B
Opponents' record: 32-27
Wins over teams with winning records: 4
Scoring margin: 25.6 ppg
Best win: 2-loss power conference team (at home)
TEAM C
Opponents' record: 22-22
Wins over teams with winning records: 1
Scoring margin: 45.0 ppg
Best win: 2-loss mid-major team (at home)
TEAM D
Opponents' record: 25-28
Wins over teams with winning records: 2
Scoring margin: 35.3 ppg
Best win: 2-loss power conference team (at home)
TEAM E
Opponents' record: 34-17
Wins over teams with winning records: 3
Scoring margin: 36.6 ppg
Best win: 2 wins over 1-loss power conference teams (one at home, one on the road)
If I asked you to rank these five teams, what order would you choose? You'd probably notice that teams C and E are pretty extreme outliers compared to the rest. Team C is clearly 5th best, with no quality wins (though they have been blowing their terrible opponents away). Team E is clearly far out front, with a severely lopsided opponent win-loss ratio, the two best wins, and a higher scoring margin than teams A, B, and D.
A, B, and D are harder to distinguish. Team A has a nice road win, Team B has the best opponent win-loss ratio, and Team D has the highest scoring margin (though the weakest schedule). At the risk of making these teams' identities even more obvious, let's look at each one's second best win.
TEAM A: 3-loss power conference team (neutral site)
TEAM B: 3-loss power conference team (at home)
TEAM D: 3-loss power conference team (on the road)
So, Team A has a nice road win, a decent neutral site win, and a 3rd quality win. All of Team B's good wins appear to be at home, but their overall opponent quality is the best. Team D has a nice home win and a decent road win, but that's it. Who's the best? Difficult to say.
The purpose of this post is not to claim that there's a clear hierarchy to the 5 undefeated teams. I don't think Teams A, B, and D can be easily distinguished. However, what is plain after this analysis is that the talking heads' narrative should sound a little more like this: "Well, Team E is undeniably #1, and it's a real dogfight between Team A, Team B, and Team D for the second spot. Team C has some work to do in order to be in the discussion."
By the way, here are the teams' identities:
Team A = Alabama
Team B = Ohio State
Team C = Baylor
Team D = Oregon
Team E = Florida State
Check back later in the week to see our rankings.
Wednesday, October 30, 2013
Week 10: November is for Contenders
Standings
1) Schweinfurth 26-12 (3-6 upset)
2) Draper 25-13 (2-7 upset)
3) Hoying 24-14 (1-8 upset)
Miami Hurricanes @ Florida State Seminoles
Draper: A top ten matchup in November with your standard 21+ point spread. The Noles are riding high while the Canes just can't seem to lose no matter how much they try. Duke Johnson is the real deal in the backfield for Miami, but that's pretty much the only position at which they have an advantage. Famous Jameis is doing serious work, and I don't see a let down in Miami week. This is a very heated rivalry that has cooled a bit recent years, but don't let this trick you...these guys hate each other. When I was at FSU, the Noles took 3 of 4 from the Gators and lost 3 of 4 to the Canes (2 to heartbreaking missed field goals). I want blood. Noles step on the gas and keep it going for a blowout. UM: 20--FSU: 52
Hoying: This year we might see a glimpse of what was once one of the top rivalries nationwide. The Noles and the Canes haven't come into this game with 0 combined losses since 2003 (not counting the few times they've met in the season opener). Unfortunately, one of these teams seems to be a complete mirage. Whereas Florida State has rolled merrily along, crushing Clemson on the road and destroying almost everyone else on their schedule, Miami has struggled mightily, sneaking past a mediocre Florida team at home and needing last-minute scores to dispatch bad North Carolina and Wake Forest squads. Give the Hurricanes credit for doing what it takes to get to November undefeated, but their Golden season ends now. Nastily. UM: 17--FSU: 34
Schweinfurth: This game was interesting to me...until I watched Miami struggle last week. Don't get me wrong, Duke Johnson is really good, but the rest of that offense is not very good. Florida State's offense can make any defense look silly. Miami's defense isn't quite the "U" defense that dominated opponents and I think Florida State is absolutely for real this year. Total domination by the 'Noles this week.
UM: 13--FSU: 42
Michigan Wolverines @ Michigan State Spartans
Draper: A little hint for you...little brother is quietly having a really nice season. Michigan had the preseason hype, but Dantonio's Spartans are nasty on defense and quietly moving through the Legends. Yes, they play ugly, yes, they win ugly, but they are winning. The offense is predominantly walrusball, but the defense is an immovable object. Sparty had a Sparty YES moment before halftime last week that Bollman certainly drew up in the kitchen (tipped pass that should have been intercepted twice completed for a TD on 4th down with no time left in the half). The Wolverines have been supremely unimpressive outside of their tight end Funyons (yeah, I don't know the actual name, but this is better). When does the little brother supplant the big? How much domination is needed? UM: 13--MSU: 20
Hoying: While I don't give a damn for the whole state this game's being played for, it does have huge implications for the final Legends division race. The Wolverines are coming off a bye to face a Spartan squad that put up an impressive 14 points against one of the worst defenses in the country (see game prediction #4 for the identity of this mystery team). However, for Michigan to win this game, they'll have to move the ball against arguably the nation's best defense. The Spartan front 7 are sure to give Michigan's RBs Fitz, so this one will fall squarely on the shoulders of Tom Harm...er, Devin Gardner. In two road games thus far, #98 has put up a combined 28/53 for 351 yards, 3 TDs, and 4 INTs. And that was against winless UConn and the same Penn State that gave up 2+ TDs to 3 different Buckeyes last week. Yikes. Get ready to eat some dirt, Shoelace II. UM: 10--MSU: 13
Schweinfurth: This has always been one of my favorite B1G rivalries through the years. This game is down right nasty and always produces a close, entertaining game. I really like the Spartan defense, I really don't like the Spartan's offense (*cough* Walrus *cough*). Michigan I just don't get. Gardner just can't go a game without forgetting what color jersey he should be throwing to (hint: white jerseys this week). After watching some of the teams in the Legends Division, this game is most definitely the Legends Division championship game. I don't expect Michigan State's offense to do much but that defense is going to give them great field position all day long (plus maybe a pick six). I'll even throw Bollman a fish for maybe an offensive touchdown. This game is closer on the scoreboard than it really should be but Sparty YES!!
UM: 9--MSU: 24
Oklahoma State Cowboys @ Texas Tech Red Raiders
Draper: Two nice looking teams without a win of note between them. Kingsbury has the Red Raiders clicking on offense with terrific freshman QB play and OSU has quietly been sneaking around in the Big 12. I haven't seen much of these teams other than to form the opinion that they're nice teams around the 15-20 ranking...nothing elite, but good teams. I'll go with the home team in a close one. The Texas Tech fans usually go a little crazy close to Halloween. OSU: 35--TT: 38
Hoying: What a terrific matchup! How about that great win Oklahoma State had over...well, what about Texas Tech's...huh...at least they kept it close with Oklahoma! Moral victories! Anyway, the Red Raiders do pass the eye test, as new HC Kliff Kingsbury has managed to maintain the old air raid offense while instituting a decent defense as well. Tech hasn't beaten Okie State since they darn near won the Big 12 title in 2008, but this year the streak ends. The Red Raiders stay in the title hunt while the Cowboys quietly slip away. OSU: 24--TTU: 45
Schweinfurth: Hey, did anyone notice that Kliff Kingsbury looks like Ryan Gosling? Honestly the only thing I know about these teams are the coaches. Neither team has really played a great schedule and both are back loaded with the best Big XII teams. It's at Texas Tech so I'll take the home team in a shootout.
OSU: 38--TTU: 45
THE Ohio State Buckeyes @ Purdue Boilermakers
Draper: Bad....really bad. That's Purdue. Good...potentially really good. That's OSU. With that being said, Troy Smith, Terrelle Pryor, and Braxton Miller have a grand total of 0 wins in West Lafayette. I think that changes this year. Ryan Kerrigan is walking on for Purdue and this OSU team is....not the pile of crap from 2 years ago. Another big day for Hyde and Miller on the ground as the Bucks start running the clock out early. The motivation is there to avenge past losses in Ross-Ade so I doubt will see a let down. Hyde for 150, Braxton throws for 200 and runs for 100, then it's time for Kenny G. Comfortable win, but not as big as last week. There's just no reason. I want to see if the defense keeps it up for 2 weeks in a row. OSU: 55--PU: 24
Hoying: Purdue is an appalling dump heap, overflowing with the most disgraceful assortment of deplorable rubbish imaginable, mangled up in tangled-up knots. Buckeye Nation wishes that first-year coach Darrell Hazell could be having a better season, but they hope even harder that his signature win doesn't come this weekend, against a team the Boilers have tagged 4 of the last 6 times they've visited scenic West Lafayette. What can be said about a game like this? Ohio State is better than Purdue in every way. Unless this has become some kind of "helmet game" for our esteemed men of the scarlet and gray, this contest should make last week's Penn State debacle look like a nail-biter. Get used to it. OSU: 52--PU: 16
Schweinfurth: It seems like forever since the Buckeyes have won in West Lafayette. Those losses included such Ohio State QBs as Troy Smith, Terrel Pryor, and yes, even Braxton Miller. The common denominator: Urban Meyer was NOT the head coach. This Buckeye team is laser focused now and that showed last week. This Purdue team is some kind of bad. If the Bucks can drop over 600 yards of offense on Penn State, just think of what can they do to the Boilermaker defense. I really expect this to be a "name your score" game. I think we see another flat dominant performance by the offense and a couple of INTs from the defense. OSU: 63--PU: 17
Upset Special
Draper: Tennessee over Missouri
Hoying: Iowa over Wisconsin
Schweinfurth: Washington St. over Arizona St.
1) Schweinfurth 26-12 (3-6 upset)
2) Draper 25-13 (2-7 upset)
3) Hoying 24-14 (1-8 upset)
Miami Hurricanes @ Florida State Seminoles
Draper: A top ten matchup in November with your standard 21+ point spread. The Noles are riding high while the Canes just can't seem to lose no matter how much they try. Duke Johnson is the real deal in the backfield for Miami, but that's pretty much the only position at which they have an advantage. Famous Jameis is doing serious work, and I don't see a let down in Miami week. This is a very heated rivalry that has cooled a bit recent years, but don't let this trick you...these guys hate each other. When I was at FSU, the Noles took 3 of 4 from the Gators and lost 3 of 4 to the Canes (2 to heartbreaking missed field goals). I want blood. Noles step on the gas and keep it going for a blowout. UM: 20--FSU: 52
Hoying: This year we might see a glimpse of what was once one of the top rivalries nationwide. The Noles and the Canes haven't come into this game with 0 combined losses since 2003 (not counting the few times they've met in the season opener). Unfortunately, one of these teams seems to be a complete mirage. Whereas Florida State has rolled merrily along, crushing Clemson on the road and destroying almost everyone else on their schedule, Miami has struggled mightily, sneaking past a mediocre Florida team at home and needing last-minute scores to dispatch bad North Carolina and Wake Forest squads. Give the Hurricanes credit for doing what it takes to get to November undefeated, but their Golden season ends now. Nastily. UM: 17--FSU: 34
Schweinfurth: This game was interesting to me...until I watched Miami struggle last week. Don't get me wrong, Duke Johnson is really good, but the rest of that offense is not very good. Florida State's offense can make any defense look silly. Miami's defense isn't quite the "U" defense that dominated opponents and I think Florida State is absolutely for real this year. Total domination by the 'Noles this week.
UM: 13--FSU: 42
Michigan Wolverines @ Michigan State Spartans
Draper: A little hint for you...little brother is quietly having a really nice season. Michigan had the preseason hype, but Dantonio's Spartans are nasty on defense and quietly moving through the Legends. Yes, they play ugly, yes, they win ugly, but they are winning. The offense is predominantly walrusball, but the defense is an immovable object. Sparty had a Sparty YES moment before halftime last week that Bollman certainly drew up in the kitchen (tipped pass that should have been intercepted twice completed for a TD on 4th down with no time left in the half). The Wolverines have been supremely unimpressive outside of their tight end Funyons (yeah, I don't know the actual name, but this is better). When does the little brother supplant the big? How much domination is needed? UM: 13--MSU: 20
Hoying: While I don't give a damn for the whole state this game's being played for, it does have huge implications for the final Legends division race. The Wolverines are coming off a bye to face a Spartan squad that put up an impressive 14 points against one of the worst defenses in the country (see game prediction #4 for the identity of this mystery team). However, for Michigan to win this game, they'll have to move the ball against arguably the nation's best defense. The Spartan front 7 are sure to give Michigan's RBs Fitz, so this one will fall squarely on the shoulders of Tom Harm...er, Devin Gardner. In two road games thus far, #98 has put up a combined 28/53 for 351 yards, 3 TDs, and 4 INTs. And that was against winless UConn and the same Penn State that gave up 2+ TDs to 3 different Buckeyes last week. Yikes. Get ready to eat some dirt, Shoelace II. UM: 10--MSU: 13
Schweinfurth: This has always been one of my favorite B1G rivalries through the years. This game is down right nasty and always produces a close, entertaining game. I really like the Spartan defense, I really don't like the Spartan's offense (*cough* Walrus *cough*). Michigan I just don't get. Gardner just can't go a game without forgetting what color jersey he should be throwing to (hint: white jerseys this week). After watching some of the teams in the Legends Division, this game is most definitely the Legends Division championship game. I don't expect Michigan State's offense to do much but that defense is going to give them great field position all day long (plus maybe a pick six). I'll even throw Bollman a fish for maybe an offensive touchdown. This game is closer on the scoreboard than it really should be but Sparty YES!!
UM: 9--MSU: 24
Oklahoma State Cowboys @ Texas Tech Red Raiders
Draper: Two nice looking teams without a win of note between them. Kingsbury has the Red Raiders clicking on offense with terrific freshman QB play and OSU has quietly been sneaking around in the Big 12. I haven't seen much of these teams other than to form the opinion that they're nice teams around the 15-20 ranking...nothing elite, but good teams. I'll go with the home team in a close one. The Texas Tech fans usually go a little crazy close to Halloween. OSU: 35--TT: 38
Hoying: What a terrific matchup! How about that great win Oklahoma State had over...well, what about Texas Tech's...huh...at least they kept it close with Oklahoma! Moral victories! Anyway, the Red Raiders do pass the eye test, as new HC Kliff Kingsbury has managed to maintain the old air raid offense while instituting a decent defense as well. Tech hasn't beaten Okie State since they darn near won the Big 12 title in 2008, but this year the streak ends. The Red Raiders stay in the title hunt while the Cowboys quietly slip away. OSU: 24--TTU: 45
Schweinfurth: Hey, did anyone notice that Kliff Kingsbury looks like Ryan Gosling? Honestly the only thing I know about these teams are the coaches. Neither team has really played a great schedule and both are back loaded with the best Big XII teams. It's at Texas Tech so I'll take the home team in a shootout.
OSU: 38--TTU: 45
THE Ohio State Buckeyes @ Purdue Boilermakers
Draper: Bad....really bad. That's Purdue. Good...potentially really good. That's OSU. With that being said, Troy Smith, Terrelle Pryor, and Braxton Miller have a grand total of 0 wins in West Lafayette. I think that changes this year. Ryan Kerrigan is walking on for Purdue and this OSU team is....not the pile of crap from 2 years ago. Another big day for Hyde and Miller on the ground as the Bucks start running the clock out early. The motivation is there to avenge past losses in Ross-Ade so I doubt will see a let down. Hyde for 150, Braxton throws for 200 and runs for 100, then it's time for Kenny G. Comfortable win, but not as big as last week. There's just no reason. I want to see if the defense keeps it up for 2 weeks in a row. OSU: 55--PU: 24
Hoying: Purdue is an appalling dump heap, overflowing with the most disgraceful assortment of deplorable rubbish imaginable, mangled up in tangled-up knots. Buckeye Nation wishes that first-year coach Darrell Hazell could be having a better season, but they hope even harder that his signature win doesn't come this weekend, against a team the Boilers have tagged 4 of the last 6 times they've visited scenic West Lafayette. What can be said about a game like this? Ohio State is better than Purdue in every way. Unless this has become some kind of "helmet game" for our esteemed men of the scarlet and gray, this contest should make last week's Penn State debacle look like a nail-biter. Get used to it. OSU: 52--PU: 16
Schweinfurth: It seems like forever since the Buckeyes have won in West Lafayette. Those losses included such Ohio State QBs as Troy Smith, Terrel Pryor, and yes, even Braxton Miller. The common denominator: Urban Meyer was NOT the head coach. This Buckeye team is laser focused now and that showed last week. This Purdue team is some kind of bad. If the Bucks can drop over 600 yards of offense on Penn State, just think of what can they do to the Boilermaker defense. I really expect this to be a "name your score" game. I think we see another flat dominant performance by the offense and a couple of INTs from the defense. OSU: 63--PU: 17
Upset Special
Draper: Tennessee over Missouri
Hoying: Iowa over Wisconsin
Schweinfurth: Washington St. over Arizona St.
Top 25, Heisman Ballots, and updated BCS projections
Rankings, as always, are based on what teams have done so far, not how we believe they will finish.
Draper Top 25
1. Alabama
2. Florida State
3. Oregon
4. Ohio State
5. Clemson
6. Baylor
7. Miami (FL)
8. Missouri
9. Stanford
10. Oklahoma
11. Auburn
12. South Carolina
13. LSU
14. Texas A&M
15. UCF
16. Michigan State
17. Louisville
18. Oklahoma State
19. Wisconsin
20. UCLA
21. Texas Tech
22. Fresno State
23. Northern Illinois
24. Arizona State
25. Michigan
Draper Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB-FSU)
2. Marcus Mariota (QB-Oregon)
3. Johnny Manziel (QB-TAMU)
Draper BCS Picks
BCS National Championship: Alabama vs. Oregon
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Stanford
Orange Bowl: Florida State vs. Wisconsin
Sugar Bowl: South Carolina vs. UCF
Fiesta Bowl: Baylor vs. Clemson
*Note: I believe the bowls will desire Clemson but will not want a rematch (vs. FSU or South Carolina). Fresno State will replace Clemson if they go undefeated and automatically qualify.
Hoying Top 25
1. Florida State
2. Alabama
3. Oregon
4. Ohio State
5. Stanford
6. Oklahoma
7. Auburn
8. Miami (FL)
9. UCF
10. Michigan
11. Notre Dame
12. South Carolina
13. Clemson
14. Baylor
15. Missouri
16. LSU
17. Fresno State
18. Northern Illinois
19. Louisville
20. BYU
21. Texas
22. Arizona State
23. Michigan State
24. Virginia Tech
25. Duke
Hoying Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Marcus Mariota (QB--Ore)
3. Johnny Manziel (QB--TAMU)
Hoying BCS Picks
BCS National Championship: Oregon vs. Florida State
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Stanford (don't be surprised if Alabama gets taken instead)
Orange Bowl: Alabama vs. Oklahoma
Sugar Bowl: Auburn vs. UCF
Fiesta Bowl: Baylor vs. Northern Illinois
Schweinfurth Top 25
1. Oregon
2. Alabama
3. Florida State
4. Ohio State
5. Baylor
6. Miami (FL)
7. Clemson
8. Stanford
9. Missouri
10. Oklahoma
11. Auburn
12. LSU
13. Fresno State
14. Texas Tech
15. UCLA
16. Wisconsin
17. Oklahoma State
18. Michigan
19. Texas A&M
20. Georgia
21. South Carolina
22. Michigan State
23. UCF
24. Louisville
25. Northern Illinois
Schweinfurth Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Marcus Mariota (QB--Oreg)
Schweinfurth BCS Picks
BCS National Championship: Florida State vs. Alabama
Rose Bowl:Orange Bowl: Oregon vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Baylor
Sugar Bowl: Missouri vs. Stanford
Fiesta Bowl: Notre Dame vs. Louisville
Draper Top 25
1. Alabama
2. Florida State
3. Oregon
4. Ohio State
5. Clemson
6. Baylor
7. Miami (FL)
8. Missouri
9. Stanford
10. Oklahoma
11. Auburn
12. South Carolina
13. LSU
14. Texas A&M
15. UCF
16. Michigan State
17. Louisville
18. Oklahoma State
19. Wisconsin
20. UCLA
21. Texas Tech
22. Fresno State
23. Northern Illinois
24. Arizona State
25. Michigan
Draper Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB-FSU)
2. Marcus Mariota (QB-Oregon)
3. Johnny Manziel (QB-TAMU)
Draper BCS Picks
BCS National Championship: Alabama vs. Oregon
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Stanford
Orange Bowl: Florida State vs. Wisconsin
Sugar Bowl: South Carolina vs. UCF
Fiesta Bowl: Baylor vs. Clemson
*Note: I believe the bowls will desire Clemson but will not want a rematch (vs. FSU or South Carolina). Fresno State will replace Clemson if they go undefeated and automatically qualify.
Hoying Top 25
1. Florida State
2. Alabama
3. Oregon
4. Ohio State
5. Stanford
6. Oklahoma
7. Auburn
8. Miami (FL)
9. UCF
10. Michigan
11. Notre Dame
12. South Carolina
13. Clemson
14. Baylor
15. Missouri
16. LSU
17. Fresno State
18. Northern Illinois
19. Louisville
20. BYU
21. Texas
22. Arizona State
23. Michigan State
24. Virginia Tech
25. Duke
Hoying Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Marcus Mariota (QB--Ore)
3. Johnny Manziel (QB--TAMU)
Hoying BCS Picks
BCS National Championship: Oregon vs. Florida State
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Stanford (don't be surprised if Alabama gets taken instead)
Orange Bowl: Alabama vs. Oklahoma
Sugar Bowl: Auburn vs. UCF
Fiesta Bowl: Baylor vs. Northern Illinois
Schweinfurth Top 25
1. Oregon
2. Alabama
3. Florida State
4. Ohio State
5. Baylor
6. Miami (FL)
7. Clemson
8. Stanford
9. Missouri
10. Oklahoma
11. Auburn
12. LSU
13. Fresno State
14. Texas Tech
15. UCLA
16. Wisconsin
17. Oklahoma State
18. Michigan
19. Texas A&M
20. Georgia
21. South Carolina
22. Michigan State
23. UCF
24. Louisville
25. Northern Illinois
Schweinfurth Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Marcus Mariota (QB--Oreg)
Schweinfurth BCS Picks
BCS National Championship: Florida State vs. Alabama
Rose Bowl:Orange Bowl: Oregon vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Baylor
Sugar Bowl: Missouri vs. Stanford
Fiesta Bowl: Notre Dame vs. Louisville
Monday, October 28, 2013
Grading the Bucks--Week 9: Penn State--That's better
Offense: A
The offense finally showed what they can do. All cylinders were firing. 3 passing TDs from Braxton (and he looked sharp), 2 rushing TDs each from Braxton, Hyde, and Guiton--can't expect too much more. Dontre Wilson finally got in the endzone and looked explosive on a sensational kick return. What is there to say? My favorite stat from Sat is the 0 turnovers. That makes a huge difference in the final score. I saw poise and confidence in the entire offense. They looked comfortable and ready for anything. I loved what I saw from the receivers blocking down field. Watch the long Braxton Miller TD run, Smith hold a block perfectly for 4-5 seconds. Give him the TD for his contribution.
Defense: A-/B+
2 huge picks were an enormous boon (although the second was an egregious missed DPI). Pitt Brown's int in the endzone really took the wind out of the Lion sails. I was unhappy again that our d-line was getting manhandled on run plays and the line of scrimmage was habitually established 2-3 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, but the linebackers were quick to fill in before too much damage was done. Moving Roby off of the primary target seemed to work...he's lost a LOT of money this year. Let's not go crazy on this defense, they're still not very good (PSU helped a ton with missed throws and dropped passes), but they rattled Hackenburg and kept the Lions in check. If this were 2005, they'd earn a C+/B-, but this defense is graded on a different level.
Special Teams: A-
No FG attempts, no punt returns, solid net punting....but one kickoff out of bounds...really? Nitpicking, but when you aren't on the field much, you need to be perfect. Wilson was darn near perfect on the kick return with the 'circle button PS3 move'.
Coaching: A
Moving Roby to cover the TE and assist against the run was extremely successful. The first few plays showed the film study worked as OSU gouged the PSU defense on the same play 3 times. Coaching was good, but execution was better.
Overall: A
In my opinion, this was the best overall game by the Bucks this year (FAMU doesn't count). If we can keep imposing our will like this, good things will happen.
Marching Band: A++++
Humble brag, but the show turned out as well as I expected (can't say better because I have high expectations with past crowd responses).
The offense finally showed what they can do. All cylinders were firing. 3 passing TDs from Braxton (and he looked sharp), 2 rushing TDs each from Braxton, Hyde, and Guiton--can't expect too much more. Dontre Wilson finally got in the endzone and looked explosive on a sensational kick return. What is there to say? My favorite stat from Sat is the 0 turnovers. That makes a huge difference in the final score. I saw poise and confidence in the entire offense. They looked comfortable and ready for anything. I loved what I saw from the receivers blocking down field. Watch the long Braxton Miller TD run, Smith hold a block perfectly for 4-5 seconds. Give him the TD for his contribution.
Defense: A-/B+
2 huge picks were an enormous boon (although the second was an egregious missed DPI). Pitt Brown's int in the endzone really took the wind out of the Lion sails. I was unhappy again that our d-line was getting manhandled on run plays and the line of scrimmage was habitually established 2-3 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, but the linebackers were quick to fill in before too much damage was done. Moving Roby off of the primary target seemed to work...he's lost a LOT of money this year. Let's not go crazy on this defense, they're still not very good (PSU helped a ton with missed throws and dropped passes), but they rattled Hackenburg and kept the Lions in check. If this were 2005, they'd earn a C+/B-, but this defense is graded on a different level.
Special Teams: A-
No FG attempts, no punt returns, solid net punting....but one kickoff out of bounds...really? Nitpicking, but when you aren't on the field much, you need to be perfect. Wilson was darn near perfect on the kick return with the 'circle button PS3 move'.
Coaching: A
Moving Roby to cover the TE and assist against the run was extremely successful. The first few plays showed the film study worked as OSU gouged the PSU defense on the same play 3 times. Coaching was good, but execution was better.
Overall: A
In my opinion, this was the best overall game by the Bucks this year (FAMU doesn't count). If we can keep imposing our will like this, good things will happen.
Marching Band: A++++
Humble brag, but the show turned out as well as I expected (can't say better because I have high expectations with past crowd responses).
Thursday, October 24, 2013
Week 9--Last call for undefeated teams?
Standings
1) Schweinfurth 23-10 (3-5 upset)
2) Draper 22-11 (1-7 upset)
3) Hoying 20-13 (1-7 upset)
UCLA Bruins @ Oregon Ducks
Draper: The premier game resides in Eugene. Oregon's one win came over a very good, but beat up, Washington Huskies squad. Can they do it against another up and coming program? In Autzen, I think they are the big favorites. UCLA stubbed their toe against Stanford last week which seems to be the formula for good teams playing Oregon (get softened up by Stanford first). Mariota and Hundley will both have good games, but the road environment will be too much to overcome for the Bruins. The football monopoly may be over in LA, but not so much in the Pac 12. UCLA: 28--UO: 48
Hoying: Stanford ruins everything. First they lose to Utah to spoil an undefeated Stanford-UCLA game, then they beat UCLA to spoil an undefeated UCLA-Oregon matchup. Bruin QB Brett Hundley has finally come down to earth after a hot start, and I don't see him getting much more breathing room against a punishing Duck D. On the other side of the ball, the UCLA defense doesn't have the horses to keep up with Super Mariota and company. I don't see this being close. UCLA: 20--UO: 52
Schweinfurth: I gotta keep these short this week due to personal time constraints. I think this will turn into a second half blow out. UCLA will stick with Oregon in the first half, but just too many offensive weapons for the Ducks.
UCLA: 24--UO: 45
Texas Tech Red Raiders @ Oklahoma Sooners
Draper: Texas Tech is another one of those 'yeah we're undefeated, but...' teams. The schedule has been soft but Oklahoma hasn't faced a premier opponent yet either. Big game Bob is really tough to beat in Norman and I don't think this year is any different. The cinderella story with Kliff Kingsbury is a good one, but I think this game is above the ceiling for this year. The future is bright in Lubbock, but the future is not now. TT: 24--OU: 31
Hoying: Savor these next three days, Red Raider fans. Savor the fantasy of going undefeated and playing for a national championship before you fall flat on your face and slip to the middle of the Big 12 pack. Texas Tech has looked impressive so far against the Little Sisters of the Poor, but it's time for big boy football, with 4 of the next 5 games coming against the top 4 teams in the conference. And the most talented squad is up first. Oklahoma has already proven themselves decent with a nice road win over Notre Dame, and they will continue to get stronger as QB Blake Bell continues to develop. Sooners in a close one. TT: 27--OU: 28
Schweinfurth: Texas Tech has come a long way but as I said previously, I think Oklahoma is the second best team in the Big XII. Fortunately for the Sooners, it's not the Red Raiders. TT: 21--OU: 34
South Carolina Gamecocks @ Missouri Tigers
Draper: Missouri is on the rise and the Gamecocks are falling fast. Looks like this could be a battle of backup QBs with Connor Shaw's knee. Mauk was impressive last week against a stout Gator defense. The backup for South Carolina has experience, but Missouri is riding the wave. This is a tough one, but I'm going with the hot hand in a really close game. HBC loses another heartbreaker on the road. SoCar: 17--Mizzou: 20
Hoying: How long can Missouri weather the absence of James Franklin? The Florida defense is no slouch, and Mauk and the Tigers carved them up worse than any opponent the Gators have yet faced. Missouri appears to be for real this year, while South Carolina has struggled at times. It's hard to see them getting better after losing QB Connor Shaw. A Tiger win virtually seals the SEC East for Mizzou and puts them on a collision course with the winner of the Iron Bowl. SoCar: 24--Mizzou: 34
Schweinfurth: Mizzou is rolling right now and Maty Mauk looked good this past week. Blah, blah, Jedeveon Clowney, blah, blah, he won't be a factor. SCAR: 20--Mizzou: 40
Stanford Cardinal @ Oregon State Beavers
Draper: I wanted this for an upset special. I have not been particularly impressed with Stanford this year and I've made that clear with my picks. Oregon State is the forgotten team in the Pac 12 after an early loss to FCS Eastern Washington. Mannion has been fantastic and the passing game in general has been unstoppable. Stanford can match up on the lines, but this west coast dink and dunk offense will give them fits. Corvallis is usually home to one upset a year and this is it (even though OSU is pretty good). Stan: 30--OSU: 34
Hoying: There's only one reason to consider picking the Beavers in this game: QB juggernaut Sean Mannion. The junior leads all NCAA passers and is a true difference maker. However, let's look at the defenses he's seen. Eastern Washington. Hawaii. Utah. San Diego State. Colorado. Washington State. California. You may recognize 1 of these as an FCS team, and 2 of the others made Ohio State's backup quarterback look like Peyton Manning. What will Mannion do when he faces not just the first competent defense he's seen all year, but an excellent one? The Beavers get blasted, that's what happens. Stan: 45--OSU: 24
Schweinfurth: Oregon State has recovered nicely from that week 1 upset. Remember, this team almost went undefeated a year ago. I expect Stanford's slide to continue. Stan: 14--OSU: 31
Penn State Nittany Lions @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: The Buckeye defense stepped up in the 2nd half last week and they'll need to be on this week vs. Hackenburg. PSU has been somewhat of a yo-yo team, but the scholarship reductions and sanctions are beginning to show. This is Urban and the Buckeyes stage to turn some heads. Penn State has the name recognition to make a big win here mean something. Time to unleash Braxton and Carlos to show the nation the Bucks are for real. Style points don't matter any more, but they certainly don't hurt. The defense will be good enough and the offense will (finally) have their way. The most important part is the halftime show this week (I helped design it). Hope everyone enjoys! PSU: 20--OSU: 45
Hoying: Another year, another scrappy Penn State quarterback with lots of moxie. Here's how this one will play out. Hackenberg will come out and throw for 200 yards in the first half as Penn State keeps it close. Then Carlos Hyde will start eating defenders, starting with the scrawny DBs and working up to the meaty linemen. When he's sated, he'll leave Jekyll behind completely and enter full-on beast mode, scoring repeatedly and at will. Meanwhile, Hackenberg will throw 3 or 4 pick-sixes and Brent Musberger will feign sympathy as he thanks his lucky stars that his bet on Ohio State to cover won't result in his legs getting broken. Then, Mark May and Gary Danielson will lambaste the Buckeyes for another lackluster win over a weak opponent, while Lou Holtz desperately tries to juthtify Ohio Thate'th exthellent thschedule and Brackthton Miller's athtounding talent. PSU: 17--OSU: 38
Schweinfurth: This game is a bit scary for me. The Ohio State secondary has been just shy of gawd awful at times. But then I remember it's PSU (Pick Six University) and it's in the 'Shoe at night. If the Silver Bullets come out flying like they did against Wisconsin, this is over in a hurry. Roby gets the pick six and Buckeye nation will finally exhale about his play. Braxton FINALLY throws for 300+ yards and El Guapo goes for 150+. It's a big night for the Buckeye offense and The Chase rolls on. PSU: 24--OSU: 50
Upset Alert
Draper: Minn over Nebraska (but the real one is Oregon State)
Hoying: Tennessee over Alabama
Schweinfurth: NCSt over Florida State (sorry Chief, I called this on Monday)
1) Schweinfurth 23-10 (3-5 upset)
2) Draper 22-11 (1-7 upset)
3) Hoying 20-13 (1-7 upset)
UCLA Bruins @ Oregon Ducks
Draper: The premier game resides in Eugene. Oregon's one win came over a very good, but beat up, Washington Huskies squad. Can they do it against another up and coming program? In Autzen, I think they are the big favorites. UCLA stubbed their toe against Stanford last week which seems to be the formula for good teams playing Oregon (get softened up by Stanford first). Mariota and Hundley will both have good games, but the road environment will be too much to overcome for the Bruins. The football monopoly may be over in LA, but not so much in the Pac 12. UCLA: 28--UO: 48
Hoying: Stanford ruins everything. First they lose to Utah to spoil an undefeated Stanford-UCLA game, then they beat UCLA to spoil an undefeated UCLA-Oregon matchup. Bruin QB Brett Hundley has finally come down to earth after a hot start, and I don't see him getting much more breathing room against a punishing Duck D. On the other side of the ball, the UCLA defense doesn't have the horses to keep up with Super Mariota and company. I don't see this being close. UCLA: 20--UO: 52
Schweinfurth: I gotta keep these short this week due to personal time constraints. I think this will turn into a second half blow out. UCLA will stick with Oregon in the first half, but just too many offensive weapons for the Ducks.
UCLA: 24--UO: 45
Texas Tech Red Raiders @ Oklahoma Sooners
Draper: Texas Tech is another one of those 'yeah we're undefeated, but...' teams. The schedule has been soft but Oklahoma hasn't faced a premier opponent yet either. Big game Bob is really tough to beat in Norman and I don't think this year is any different. The cinderella story with Kliff Kingsbury is a good one, but I think this game is above the ceiling for this year. The future is bright in Lubbock, but the future is not now. TT: 24--OU: 31
Hoying: Savor these next three days, Red Raider fans. Savor the fantasy of going undefeated and playing for a national championship before you fall flat on your face and slip to the middle of the Big 12 pack. Texas Tech has looked impressive so far against the Little Sisters of the Poor, but it's time for big boy football, with 4 of the next 5 games coming against the top 4 teams in the conference. And the most talented squad is up first. Oklahoma has already proven themselves decent with a nice road win over Notre Dame, and they will continue to get stronger as QB Blake Bell continues to develop. Sooners in a close one. TT: 27--OU: 28
Schweinfurth: Texas Tech has come a long way but as I said previously, I think Oklahoma is the second best team in the Big XII. Fortunately for the Sooners, it's not the Red Raiders. TT: 21--OU: 34
South Carolina Gamecocks @ Missouri Tigers
Draper: Missouri is on the rise and the Gamecocks are falling fast. Looks like this could be a battle of backup QBs with Connor Shaw's knee. Mauk was impressive last week against a stout Gator defense. The backup for South Carolina has experience, but Missouri is riding the wave. This is a tough one, but I'm going with the hot hand in a really close game. HBC loses another heartbreaker on the road. SoCar: 17--Mizzou: 20
Hoying: How long can Missouri weather the absence of James Franklin? The Florida defense is no slouch, and Mauk and the Tigers carved them up worse than any opponent the Gators have yet faced. Missouri appears to be for real this year, while South Carolina has struggled at times. It's hard to see them getting better after losing QB Connor Shaw. A Tiger win virtually seals the SEC East for Mizzou and puts them on a collision course with the winner of the Iron Bowl. SoCar: 24--Mizzou: 34
Schweinfurth: Mizzou is rolling right now and Maty Mauk looked good this past week. Blah, blah, Jedeveon Clowney, blah, blah, he won't be a factor. SCAR: 20--Mizzou: 40
Stanford Cardinal @ Oregon State Beavers
Draper: I wanted this for an upset special. I have not been particularly impressed with Stanford this year and I've made that clear with my picks. Oregon State is the forgotten team in the Pac 12 after an early loss to FCS Eastern Washington. Mannion has been fantastic and the passing game in general has been unstoppable. Stanford can match up on the lines, but this west coast dink and dunk offense will give them fits. Corvallis is usually home to one upset a year and this is it (even though OSU is pretty good). Stan: 30--OSU: 34
Hoying: There's only one reason to consider picking the Beavers in this game: QB juggernaut Sean Mannion. The junior leads all NCAA passers and is a true difference maker. However, let's look at the defenses he's seen. Eastern Washington. Hawaii. Utah. San Diego State. Colorado. Washington State. California. You may recognize 1 of these as an FCS team, and 2 of the others made Ohio State's backup quarterback look like Peyton Manning. What will Mannion do when he faces not just the first competent defense he's seen all year, but an excellent one? The Beavers get blasted, that's what happens. Stan: 45--OSU: 24
Schweinfurth: Oregon State has recovered nicely from that week 1 upset. Remember, this team almost went undefeated a year ago. I expect Stanford's slide to continue. Stan: 14--OSU: 31
Penn State Nittany Lions @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: The Buckeye defense stepped up in the 2nd half last week and they'll need to be on this week vs. Hackenburg. PSU has been somewhat of a yo-yo team, but the scholarship reductions and sanctions are beginning to show. This is Urban and the Buckeyes stage to turn some heads. Penn State has the name recognition to make a big win here mean something. Time to unleash Braxton and Carlos to show the nation the Bucks are for real. Style points don't matter any more, but they certainly don't hurt. The defense will be good enough and the offense will (finally) have their way. The most important part is the halftime show this week (I helped design it). Hope everyone enjoys! PSU: 20--OSU: 45
Hoying: Another year, another scrappy Penn State quarterback with lots of moxie. Here's how this one will play out. Hackenberg will come out and throw for 200 yards in the first half as Penn State keeps it close. Then Carlos Hyde will start eating defenders, starting with the scrawny DBs and working up to the meaty linemen. When he's sated, he'll leave Jekyll behind completely and enter full-on beast mode, scoring repeatedly and at will. Meanwhile, Hackenberg will throw 3 or 4 pick-sixes and Brent Musberger will feign sympathy as he thanks his lucky stars that his bet on Ohio State to cover won't result in his legs getting broken. Then, Mark May and Gary Danielson will lambaste the Buckeyes for another lackluster win over a weak opponent, while Lou Holtz desperately tries to juthtify Ohio Thate'th exthellent thschedule and Brackthton Miller's athtounding talent. PSU: 17--OSU: 38
Schweinfurth: This game is a bit scary for me. The Ohio State secondary has been just shy of gawd awful at times. But then I remember it's PSU (Pick Six University) and it's in the 'Shoe at night. If the Silver Bullets come out flying like they did against Wisconsin, this is over in a hurry. Roby gets the pick six and Buckeye nation will finally exhale about his play. Braxton FINALLY throws for 300+ yards and El Guapo goes for 150+. It's a big night for the Buckeye offense and The Chase rolls on. PSU: 24--OSU: 50
Upset Alert
Draper: Minn over Nebraska (but the real one is Oregon State)
Hoying: Tennessee over Alabama
Schweinfurth: NCSt over Florida State (sorry Chief, I called this on Monday)
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