One Loss or Two? Ohio State and the Playoffs

By now you've surely read Dr. Draper's outline of Ohio State's playoff chances, about how everything will fall nicely into place if Ohio State, Alabama, Miami, and Oklahoma win out (and Wisconsin drops another game for good measure).

Well, suppose that doesn't happen. Suppose that, in order to make the playoffs, 2-loss Ohio State has to finish ahead of at least one 1-loss Power 5 team. Oh, the screaming you'll hear (especially from Penn State fans, although it'll be hard to notice because they never shut up). "Ohio State made the playoffs last year instead of Penn State, and Penn State had a conference championship AND a head-to-head win! The Committee has spoken, and a 2-loss team can't take a 1-loss team's spot!"

Now, I've been a fan of the Committee's work over these last 3 years; each year they've put in the same 4 teams that I would've (although in a different order each year). Which means that, yes, I agreed with the Committee that Ohio State deserved a playoff spot ahead of Penn State, even with no conference championship. Does this mean that this season, for the sake of consistency, the Committee would need to rank an 11-2 B1G champion Ohio State below a potential 1-loss conference also-ran?

No. Not necessarily. To understand why not, we need to revisit what an anomaly the 2016 Ohio State team was.

In 2015, Ohio State had maybe its most talented team ever (see also 2003, 2005). They opened with a smashing road win over Virginia Tech and closed out their regular season with a crushing road win over top-15 Michigan to finish 11-1. Their only loss along the way was on a last-second field goal to the B1G champion, #3-ranked Michigan State.

And Ohio State finished ranked #7, notably behind Pac-12 champion 11-2 Stanford.

Fast forward a year. 2016 Ohio State again finished the regular season 11-1 after losing to the B1G champions. And yet these Buckeyes finished ranked #3, ahead of B1G champion 11-2 Penn State. Why?

Because they had the most absurd resume of any 1-loss team in College Football Playoff history.

The 2016 Buckeyes had wins over #6 Michigan, #7 Oklahoma, and #8 Wisconsin, the latter 2 on the road. And their one loss was on a blocked field goal on the road at #5 Penn State. Only one other 1-loss playoff contender has ever had even TWO wins over top ten teams: 2015 Michigan State beat #5 Iowa and #7 Ohio State, and their loss was to 6-6 Nebraska.

2016 Clemson's resume sure didn't stack up to OSU's, with their best win being over #11 Florida State and their loss to #23 Pitt, but Clemson finished #2 while OSU finished #3, showing that the Committee wasn't giving Ohio State a free pass for not winning their conference title championship. The message was clear: the Committee really, really wants to put conference champions into the playoff, but if you have a better record than the conference champion, AND you're an absolute world-beater who got hosed out of a conference title on tiebreakers, they'll make an exception.

A rare exception, I'd wager. It's almost a shame that this rogue conference non-champion barged into the playoffs so early in the format's existence. 2016 Ohio State is going to set a lot of fan bases up for disappointment. My guess is that 10 years down the line, we'll have only seen another 1 or 2 non-champions in the playoff, and then only under striking circumstances (if we don't have a watered down 8-team abomination by then).

Which leads us to this year. Are there any potential 1-loss conference non-champions who could stand between an 11-2 B1G champion Ohio State and the playoff? First, let's list all the Power 5 teams that could finish with one loss and not win their conference:

• Alabama (could lose to Auburn and go 11-1, or lose to Georgia and go 12-1)
• Miami (could lose to Clemson and go 11-1)
• Wisconsin (could lose to Ohio State and go 12-1)

How do these teams' resumes stack up?

• Alabama: wins over...Mississippi State and LSU? Maybe a win over Auburn if they then get knocked off in the title game? Their loss would be pretty good, either Auburn or Georgia.
• Miami: a great win over Notre Dame...and then? Maybe VT will crack the rankings again, but the overall resume is still terribly thin. A loss to Clemson would be eminently forgivable.
• Wisconsin: wins over... ... ...Northwestern? Michigan, who won't be ranked if they lose to Ohio State? Iowa (hey, great win over OSU)? Not a lot of meat on these bones. And losing to Ohio State would not help Wisconsin's case.

Not a particularly strong candidate among them. These teams are looking an awful lot more like 2015 Ohio State than 2016 Ohio State, which means that I don't see any of them making the playoff if they don't walk away with their conference championships. Heck, even Notre Dame and USC would be knocking on the semifinals' door before these teams.

And that's the rub. Ironically, this year, the bigger threat seems to come from the potential 2-loss conference non-champions. A 2-loss non-champion getting in over a 2-loss champion would be real uncharted territory, but then again, so would any 2-loss team getting in at all. Let's go to the resumes:

• Clemson (could lose to Miami and go 11-2)
• Well, the Auburn win could look really good, especially if the Tigers win the SEC, but otherwise these Tigers' next best win is NC State? Va Tech? They'd have lots of wins over 6-6 or so bowl teams, but not many flashy splashy victories. And the Syracuse loss is the worst of any playoff contender.
• Oklahoma (could lose to TCU (or whomever) and go 11-2)
• Here's your flashy splashy wins: TCU, Oklahoma State, Ohio State. Oklahoma should be ranked ahead of Clemson now (and my guess is that this corrects itself before championship week) and would likely stay ahead of Ohio State even with a loss, thanks to the head-to-head road win and comparable resume otherwise.
• Notre Dame (cannot win a conference championship without a conference)
• Resume looks great now with losses to two top teams and wins over USC, Michigan State, and NC State. But I'm not sure if it beats out wins over Wisconsin, Penn State, and Michigan State, even if the Irish does pick up Stanford along the way.
• Penn State, Washington (could win out and not play for a conference title)
• Hahahaha no.

This post is not intended to make the case that any of the above teams should or should not make the playoff ahead of Ohio State. Rather, the point is that just because 2016 Ohio State jumped Penn State to take a playoff slot despite no conference title, it doesn't follow that the 2017 Ohio State Buckeyes need to quietly step aside to let a similarly situated Alabama or Miami past them. It's not always (usually, but not always) as simple as one loss versus two.

Week 12: Plenty O' Nuttin'

Standings
1. Draper (39-15, 2-9 upset)
2. Seeberg (36-18, 5-6 upset)
3. Schweinfurth (35-19, 0-11 upset)
4. Hoying (33-21, 1-10 upset)

We hope you enjoyed the last two earth-shattering weeks across the college football landscape, which saw our beloved Buckeyes' playoff hopes unceremoniously dashed and then resurrected as the world crumbled around them. Because you're not going to enjoy this week. There's a total of one ranked matchup, so that's all you're going to get (along with going through the motions of picking Ohio State to disintegrate Illinois).

Michigan Wolverines @ Wisconsin Badgers
Draper: So does Michigan have anything left? This has been a year of wild swinging Wolverine emotions that has settled down to: maybe losing our entire defense to the NFL might hurt our team this year.  Enter Brandon Peters who has looked decent in relief (although White Goodman with the chicken legs would have been an upgrade), but the Badgers D has turned up the heat.  I'm still not 100% sold on Wisconsin (yes, they trashed Iowa who trashed OSU, but you'll see in last weeks picks that I totally expected that), but I think they'll be able to handle a mediocre young QB in their house.  Michigan does still have a pretty good defense (even though PSU took care of them in the whiteout, but the slow and steady Badgers just sit on them with their 500 lb fat guys.  The inexorable Bucky moves on.  UM: 10 -- UW: 19
Hoying: Finally we'll get to see if these overrated hacks can get a win over a team ranked in the top 50 or so. But enough about Michigan...Wisconsin has played very steady all year, not having to sweat a game in the 4th quarter (except mayyybe Northwestern). Can the Wolverines turn the heat up in Camp Randall? I don't think they'll be able to match the Badgers from a motivation factor. This is practically a one-game season for the Badgers, while Michigan may have other upcoming battles to worry about. Peters has looked OK replacing O'Korn, but he hasn't really had to do anything yet. This week he'll have to chase down DBs after throwing picks all over the field in a vain attempt to lead the Wolverines back against a punishing Badger D. Michigan's late season slide starts...now. UM: 13--UW: 20
Schweinfurth: Does anyone really think this game will be competitive? I don't. Michigan has been thrashing teams they are supposed to whip. Wisconsin has been steadily rolling along. Johnathan Taylor has looked like a beast behind the Badgers' large mammals. No Jazz Peavy could make it interesting, but Wisconsin just grinds the Harboogers down for the Bucks next week. UM: 10--UW: 35
Seeberg:  Well the Wolverines are back in the rankings.  Anybody think they'd see the day when a 3-loss MSU team would be 7 spots ahead of a 2-loss UM team?  Further proof that times have changed...but wait!  Isn't the Khaki-nator going to bring UM back to prominence?  Well it's season three and so far, not so much.  Conference relevance (barely) and that's about it thus far.  Meanwhile, Wisconsin's defense allowed a big fat goose egg to Iowa last week (you know, the same team that somehow hung 48 offensive points on our Buckeyes the week before), as the Hawkeyes managed only two pick-sixes to get on the scoreboard.  In any event, a good defense going up against what the Wolverines trot out as a purported offense is not a good recipe for a victory.  Enjoy returning to the ranks of the unranked, maize and blue.  UM: 10--UW: 21

Illinois Fighting Illini @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: Let's be honest, this game should be about one thing and one thing only: sending JT Barrett out of the Shoe on a high note. He has been here for his 123 years and in true Aaron Craftinan manner, caused fits for all the Buckeye foes.  He deserves to be sent out on a high note, as does all time starts king Billy Price.  These seniors have been involved in a fantastic four (five) years) and deserve the praise and accolades coming to them.  There is a game this week, but Illinois just plain sucks...they're the suckiest bunch of sucks who ever sucked (sorry, Buttgers).  There is absolutely no reason for this to be close after the first quarter (it better not be).  Don't take it lightly because I remember another Senior Day vs. Illinois as my last home game in the band (psst...it didn't go well).  This should be a shellacking and the crowd should give these seniors (especially JT) their warmest thanks.  We are lucky to have had them represent the school.  Keep rocking and hope for more chaos! Ill: 9 -- OSU: 52
Hoying: I don't even know what to say about this game. You saw Ohio State play the likes of Rutgers, and Maryland, and Nebraska earlier this year. Well, Illinois is worse than those teams. By a lot. Booker and Baker (and Candlestick Maker) should be back to roam the field again this week for the Silver Bullets, and it'll be interesting to see if last week's phenomenally successful LB shakeup will continue now that the regular guys are back. Other than that, just don't lose. It would be bad. Ill: 6--OSU: 45
Schweinfurth: I did not see that coming. Seriously, I picked OSU 17-10 last week. THAT was the Buckeye team that needed to show up all year and did against Penn State. The zone read and down field passing have their place in the Bucks offense but this is a power running team. This game will be nothing but ground and pound from Dobbins and Weber (that forecast tomorrow is all rain). Nothing more is needed. Illinois is B. A. D. BAD. Keep the offense and defense rolling and on to everyone's favorite week of the year. The Bullets get the shutout for the seniors. Ill: 0--OSU: 45
Seeberg: I officially cannot figure this team out.  The only thing I know to be true- and I'm far from the only one- is that this team is virtually unstoppable on offense when the RBs get enough carries.  Remember, Zeke had 696 by himself rushing the ball in the last 3 games of 2014 and we all know how that season ended.  We may not have a transcendent talent at RB (though Dobbins is pushing to be just that), but the two-headed beast of Weber and Dobbins is every bit as formidable.  None of this should matter against Illinois, of course, but hopefully Urban, Kevin and Co. finally learned their lesson.  It's almost Xichigan week kids!  Ill: 3--OSU: 49

Upset Special
Draper: UVA over da U
Hoying: UCLA over USC
Schweinfurth: Minnesota over Northwestern
Seeberg:  Texas Tech over TCU

Grading the Bucks: Week 11 -- Michigan State

Aahhhh..much better.

Offense: B+
The running game was back to old form with Dobbins and Weber taking care of business while JT quietly had a nice ground game as well.  The offensive line was fantastic as well both passing and running.  The major knock came on the questionable (to say the least) interceptions thrown by Mr. Barrett.  The second was a clear attempt by Meyer to get the stats a little better for Barrett in a blow out so it wasn't terrible...other than the throw showed he had checked out by that time.  The passing game was actually pretty good but the interceptions were just dumb.  No matter what, the running game was the star.  Mike Weber reminds Buckeye Nation (again) that he's really good while Dobbins still impressed.  When the team is clicking, look out.

Defense: A
That's how you turn things around in a big way.  It looked like the defensive line decided to man up after being embarrassed last week.  It certainly didn't hurt having Bosa in for a full 60, but it was nice to see this team not give up on the season after the abomination in Iowa City.  I'll give major props to the linebackers who appeared to be night and day compared to the Hawkeye game.  Baker has been awful lately so the worry was what are his backups looking like. Borland was phenomenal in the middle and moving Worley to outside linebacker seems like the right move going forward.  He looked much more comfortable in that position.  While MSU isn't going to wow the top teams in the nation with their offensive prowess, Iowa was considered to be Sparty lite (run the ball and pass to the TEs).  The defensive adjustments over the last week were a work of art.

Special Teams: B+
You know what? I didn't even remember the special teams existed...and that's what I want from Urban's boys.  No missed kicks, no turnovers, no stupid blunders...I'll take that all day every day.

Coaching: B+
The gameplan was beautiful and worked like a charm.  Getting this team to play for something when all appeared lost was a major victory in and of itself.  Michigan State was completely befuddled on both sides of the ball and simply couldn't stop the Buckeyes.  I was disappointed that JT was in the game so late.  There was no reason to risk injury or do anything dumb when the game was well in hand.  While I agree that injuries can't be planned for, the first unit seemed to have checked out of the game at halftime.  That's not optimal, but when they showed they had the ability and stomped another good team, I think it was time to get some reps for the second teamers.  The lack of 100% effort in the late 3rd early 4th was noticeable.  I think the coaches should have sent a message that if you don't go 100%, don't bother checking in.  Hard to fault the coaches too much.  This was a beautiful bounce back victory.

Overall: A-
Michigan State is a very good (not great team) and the Buckeyes embarrassed them when all the momentum and energy sided with the roaring Spartans (Buckeyes coming off a historic loss while the Spartans just beat Penn State and had control of the division).  Don't underestimate the effort the coaches must have put in this week to get these kids to play hard.  The players were mentally challenged this week and came out on the other side with new hope.  The new goal, don't get ahead of yourselves.  Nothing matters this week, but one thing...beating a hapless Illinois team on Senior Day (PS that didn't go so well last time).  Take care of your business.

So you're telling me there's a chance--Buckeyes in the Playoff?

Alright, the Buckeyes were buried for dead as the clock struck zero in Iowa City just over a week ago.  By the fans, by the media, by everyone.  But that little magic inherent in College Football known as #TeamChaos reared its beautiful head and we're right back in it.  Let's discuss.  While this is indeed a 'homer' Buckeye blog, this post is real.  I will do my best to take an objective view of the current climate and demonstrate that the Buckeye's making the playoff for the 3rd time in 4 years is not a pipe dream...even after that horrid game vs. the Hawkeyes.

The Teams that Control Their Destinies
Extremely surprisingly, I count 7 (perhaps 8 teams) who are in a legitimate 'win out and you're in' scenario. 

1) Alabama Crimson Tide: In the 'duh' category, we have Saban's crew.  As one of three unbeaten Power 5 teams, there is (clearly) no chance for an undefeated Bama to miss out on their 4th (of 4) playoffs.  The road is bumpy with two meetings (maybe only one) with other controllers of destiny.  Simple plan for the Tide: Beat the Tigers and the Bulldogs and you're the number 1 seed.

2) Miami Hurricanes: This makes me sick to my stomach, but 'the U' is back to relevance and shame on the doubters (including me).  This is also a 'duh' contender.  Beat UVA, Pitt, and Clemson and enter the playoff as no worse than the 2 seed. 

3) Oklahoma Sooners: This team just continues to roll on offense and...well, they're good on offense.  Baker Mayfield can put the Heisman on his resume now as well as another playoff appearance (2nd of 4) if they win out.  Beating an angry TCU team in a rematch might be tough but the wins over OSU, Oklahoma St, and TCU are too good to ignore.

4) Clemson Tigers: Clemson has the lone blemish to a questionable Syracuse team but wins over Auburn, Virginia Tech, NC State, and Miami in the ACC Title game would put the champs back into the playoff for their 3rd go round.

5) Wisconsin Badgers: Stop the talk.  If the Badgers win out, they're in. There is no question and no argument.  Yes, the schedule is poo, but wins over Iowa, Northwestern, Michigan, and Ohio State (or another East team barring disaster) will be enough.  The zero in the loss column will guarantee the large dairy farmers a shot at the title.

6) Georgia Bulldogs: Well, the beatdown at Jordan Hare left a mark, but UGA is in a fine position.  Beat Bama or a rematch vs. Auburn and they'll be in the playoff without a doubt.  The SEC East is probably the worst division in football, but the win over Notre Dame is the gift that keeps on giving.

7) Auburn Tigers: Ok, this one wasn't expected, but the absolute demolition of the Bulldogs followed by dates against Bama and possibly the Bulldogs again? The close losses to Clemson and LSU will be completely ignored.  Get hot and take down the king and you're in.  Honestly, this is a guarantee in my mind.

The contenders
8) TCU Horned Frogs: This is the team that might actually control their destiny as well, but it's not a done deal...yet.  Winning out includes beating OU in a rematch.  A two loss team with wins over OU (on the second try), Oklahoma State, and West Virginia MIGHT be enough, but I'm not willing to rubber stamp it.  If they drop another, bye bye.

9) THE Ohio State Buckeyes: The sky was falling, but winning out would include beating Illinois (woo....), Michigan (better), and Wisconsin (nice!).  Beating Wisconsin also removes them from our path (maybe) which is cool and all.  The committee loves the Buckeyes because they know the Urban Meyer coached teams are capable of beating anyone (and losing to anyone...).  I think the Buckeyes are in a beautiful spot to sneak in if they can run the table with wins over PSU, MSU, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

10) Notre Dame Fighting Irish: This one is really interesting.  The Irish have nice wins over BC (eh), USC, and Michigan State, but everyone saw that Miami game.  Did it dishearten the Irish?  Can they come back from that and beat Stanford? If they take care of business, their resume looks very much like the Buckeyes.  It will be very interesting.

11) USC Trojans: The Trojans are coming on strong, but wins over Stanford and... Washington or Washington State? I seriously doubt they have a legit shot, but a Pac12 champion has an outside outside outside shot with the name/athletes that USC has.

Thanks for playing but miracles are needed
12) Oklahoma State: I love Mike Gundy's squad, but they aren't winning the Big 12 and there's nothing to hang their hat on.
13) Washington Huskies: crap schedule with best win against WSU or USC and NOTHING else
14) UCF: Nice season but no.
15) Penn State: ha. Did they beat anyone other than Michigan?

"So what does it all mean Basil?"
Let's look closely at the top two tiers: Almost all teams are in the SEC, Big 12, Big Ten, or ACC (exceptions: Notre Dame, USC): translation: cannibalism.  The only conferences that could even feasibly get 2 teams in are the SEC and ACC (and that would only happen with 1-loss Bama or 1- loss Miami--and they wouldn't be locks).  This is why Ohio State lives! Let's admit it: 2 spots are locked up (barring a ton of stupid upsets): SEC Champ and ACC Champ.  Oklahoma is a lock with a Big 12 title with the win in September in Columbus.  This leaves one spot for craziness and OSU is ready to pounce.  What is the optimal scenario for the Buckeyes? For whom should we root?

Best case sceneario
Obviously, if any of those 10 teams (not OSU) lose some stupid game to another team not listed above, that would be great (and funny).  Root for that.

1) Ohio State must win out: This is obvious but often forgotten.  Buckeye fans will come up with a multitude of crazy scenarios to ensure their team a shot but forget that one loss, and there is absolutely no coming back. 

2) Bama wins out: "But we hates Bama, precious?"  Root for Bama to clear out Georgia and Auburn.  A one loss Bama has a smidgen of hope as well.  Don't risk giving 2 spots to the SEC.  Take that spot as the SEC's and make sure Saban gets it.  We'll just beat them in the Sugar Bowl again right?...RIGHT?!?!

3) Oklahoma wins out: This knocks the specter of TCU out of the picture (prevent reverse 2014?).  Also, it's almost impossible to imagine OSU jumping a 2-loss Oklahoma even if they win the Big Ten.  We all remember Sept 9th and the committee will too.  But what about Penn State last year? The committee looks at head to head when the records and resumes are similar.  OU and OSU's resumes will be similar.  Last year, OSU had a much better resume and one fewer loss than PSU.  They followed the principles then, and I believe they will again.

4) For safety sake, the U wins out (barf): This knocks Clemson out and prevent a comparison of 2 loss B1G Champion OSU vs. 1-loss Miami.  OSU would have better wins overall, but the loss to Iowa will be tough to ignore.

5) Would be nice for Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Penn State to win out (prior to championship weekend): Help keep those wins on the resume looking good.

If this happens, your playoff will be:
1. Alabama
2. Miami
3. Oklahoma
4. ?????

Who's left to fight?
B1G Champ OSU
1 loss Wisconsin
2 loss Notre Dame
2 loss Georgia
2 loss Pac12 Champ USC (or Washington)
2 loss Clemson

By no means is this a slam dunk for Ohio State, but I like our chances. 

vs. Wisky: Lasting image of defeating the Badgers in their only real test.  A 59-0 pasting would be nice as well.  This could get interesting, but I doubt it would.

vs. Notre Dame: This one is close, but playing the "conference champion" card is big.  Notre Dame has better losses but OSU has better wins (with Wisconsin on the belt)

vs. Georgia: They have no conference championship, a win of Notre Dame in September, and...Nothing else.

vs. Pac12 Champ: zzzzzzzzzz look at the resumes

vs. Clemson: Tigers have no conference championship and a worse loss.  Slight edge to Clemson in body of work, but that B1G championship...


Overall:
We only control one part of this mess. 

Just.
Win.
Baby.

I believe everything laid out above will be the 'Vegas' favorite with the possible exception of Miami over Clemson.  We know we can't plan for everything to go right, but this is real.  Even if the best case scenario doesn't happen, the Bucks have a better than average shot if they win out.  Based on the numbers, the Buckeyes have a 62% chance to make the playoffs if they win out regardless of the other teams outcomes. If you gave me those odds after last week, I'd say you were crazy, but then again...it's college football.  Sit back and enjoy the ride.  It may not have the desired outcome, but man is it a lot of fun!

Week 11: What Comes Before Spart B?

Standings
1. Draper (34-13, 1-9 upset)
2. Seeberg (31-16, 5-5 upset)
3. Schweinfurth (31-16, 0-10 upset)
4. Hoying (29-18, 1-9 upset)

Are you not entertained?!? No, not by the Buckeyes (yikes) but by the endless onslaught of ranked vs. ranked matchups that backloaded November schedules have delivered unto us? November is for contenders, spake a certain man in a sweater vest, and there's a good chance another 4 or 5 pretenders are going to get kicked to the curb by the time Sunday morning rolls around.

Alabama Crimson Tide @ Mississippi State Bulldogs
Draper: Bama's been quietly destroying everyone in their path...again.  I have no faith that Mississippi State is anything more than a paper bulldog.  I love CLANGA at home when they play a team close to their skill level, but the talent disparity is enormous.  This shouldn't be close.  I'm sure Saban will find something to whine about after, but Tide Rolls. Bama: 34 -- MSU: 10
Hoying: The days of depth in the SEC are no more. There seem to be about 3 good teams: Alabama, Georgia, and Auburn. "But wait!" you say. "Mississippi State is 7-2, the same as Auburn!" Yes, and they've played Georgia and Auburn already. Scores of those games: 31-3 Georgia and 49-10 Auburn. Now, Alabama hasn't played any of those quality teams yet, and it's possible they're a total paper tiger as well. But Alabama didn't spend the better part of a game trailing UMass last weekend like MSU did, though they did look less than spectacular against LSU. This has all the makings of a possible Bulldog upset, which means the Tide have already foreseen this possibility and installed their "win by 50" gameplan. So let's go with that. Ala: 38--MSU: 17
Schweinfurth: Alabama vs. an overrated SEC team. Yea, we are back to that. The only way this game ends up close is if Mississippi State can a) "rattle" the Tide offense with the cowbells, and b) force Jaylen Hurts to throw the ball. I don't see either happening. Ala: 31--MSU: 10
Seeberg:  Lots more ranked vs. ranked matchups this week.  Many are likely to be close, this one, however, is likely an exception.  Obviously this is the ultimate test for the Bulldogs, who have failed miserably in their only two legitimate contests to date.  Unfortunately, the third time will not be the charm.  Plus as long as 'Bama has that #2 sitting by their name in the playoff rankings, Saban can actually play that chip for motivation.  Sorry 'dogs.  Ala: 35--MSU: 13

Georgia Bulldogs @ Auburn Tigers
Draper: This is the prime spot for UGA to crap themselves when everything's going well.  The running game has been phenomenal all year, but Auburn has the front seven to slow them down.  Can Jake Fromm (State Farm) add another dimension to the Dawg attack? I don't think he'll be super effective, but effective enough to escape Jordan-Hare with a victory.  Auburn has been pretty solid all year but can 't quite get over the hump on the big stage. I expect more of the same here in a close game.  UGA: 24 -- Aub: 20
Hoying: Unlike Alabama, these teams have been both tested already. One was up to the challenge, the other has been found wanting. Yes, the Tigers have cracked the top 10 despite their two close losses, but the Dawgs have a chokehold on the #1 spot thanks to their stifling defense and punishing rushing attack. Kinda like Auburn, but better. Look for them to keep rolling. UGA: 24--Aub: 20
Schweinfurth: I don't know what to make of Auburn. Then again, I haven't watched much of Auburn, either. Georgia is just pummeling teams...H8 FEEDS THE DAWG. Georgia plays sound defense and has a dominant running game, and that is a great formula for winning. This game will be close, but mostly because it's at Auburn. UGA: 21--Aub: 13 
Seeberg:  Auburn has the same record as unproven Mississippi State, but has been much more competitive in their big games thus far.  Georgia, meanwhile, has won all of their games, so these Bulldogs sit atop the playoff rankings.  This is Georgia's last real test before the SEC title game, and I expect them to pull away late and pass it with flying colors.  UGA: 31--Aub: 20

Iowa Hawkeyes @ Wisconsin Badgers
Draper: Iowa seems to have found an offense after the dismantling of the Buckeyes in Kinnick last week to support a pretty good defense while the Badgers continue to just bludgeon people with the running game.  I actually think the loss of Wisky's leading receiver might make a dent in the Bucky gameplan, but I'm going off of history in this one.  When a team that has no business beating OSU pulls it off and everyone thinks they're ready to turn the corner, they lay a MONSTROUS egg the next week. I get the feeling that Wisconsin is going to wax the Hawkeyes in Madison and get the hype train running for the B1G Championship game (if the Bucks take care of business.  Iowa: 10 -- Wisc: 31
Hoying: Well, that was excruciating. Now it's time to find out the Badgers can do against this juggernaut. Wisconsin hasn't been seriously tested this season, either by quality of opponent or by late close game tension, so it will be interesting to see if Iowa can put a bit of a scare into them. I don't believe for a second that Bucky > Bucks, but the friendly confines of Kinnick will be a few hundred miles away from this scrum, and the Hawkeyes should merit the Badgers' full attention. On the other hand, Wisconsin does host Michigan the following week, so there may be a very very slight look-ahead factor. Every fiber of my being tells me to go with the home team, but a small voice in the back of my head is suggesting that a better-than-advertised Iowa just needed an opportunity to seize their potential, and our hapless Buckeyes sprung them from their cocoon. I don't expect them to do...THAT...again, but Wisconsin has been drinking the weekly weak sauce for too long. Iowa: 20--Wisc: 16
Schweinfurth: Man Iowa played a near perfect game last week. Let's all remember, this is a team that lost on the last play to Penn State and then flat rolled what we all thought was a playoff team in Ohio State. Perennial B1G Coach of The Year Kirk Ferentz is getting his guys ready to play this year. The problem for Iowa is that this game is in Madison. Lot's of smash mouth football here. Wisconsin has the better running game and this looks to be their only true test so far this year. I see this game coming down to a last second field goal. Iowa: 14--Wisc: 17
Seeberg:  After the head-scratching performance from last week, who knows what will happen here.  It's almost as if Ferentz broke out the "good playbook" like you only break out the fine china and crystal stemware once every other year.  It won't take as Herculean an effort to beat the Badgers, but after watching the black and...black? dismantle the Buckeyes, I doubt Wiscy will be taking this game lately.  Expect it ugly, boring, and another blah Wisconsin win. Iowa: 17--Wisc: 24

Texas Christian Horned Frogs @ Oklahoma Sooners
Draper: Oklahoma continues to be an absolute power on the offensive side and a disaster on defense.  Baker Mayfield more-or-less has the Heisman wrapped up, but to put a bow on it, he needs to do it against the one defense in the Big 12.  I think he can.  OU seems to be able to get into a track meet with anyone and finish ahead.  Kenny Hill won't be able to keep up unless the Horned Frog D can slow down Mayfield...and I don't think they'll slow him enough.  I still hate his stupid face, but there's only one thing to say....BOOMER! TCU: 24--OU: 31
Hoying: It's not every day you give up 52 points and still win by double digits. I'm guessing the winning score in this one will be somewhere south of that mark, as TCU doesn't quite torch the field the way the Pokes do. You can tell they're not an original Big 12 team, though, as a competent defense is still on display in Fort Worth. This isn't to say that Oklahoma can't suffocate a big-name opponent when they need to (shudder), but they haven't given up fewer than 24 points in a conference game. Baker Mayfield has been peerless this season, but the Horned Frogs are itching to finish the job that Ohio State's defense started (for a half, at any rate). TCU: 27--OU: 24
Schweinfurth: Can anyone in the Big 12 play defense? TCU can. Oklahoma did in one game this year (in Columbus *sigh*). Oklahoma's offense is good enough to move the ball, but TCU just doesn't let teams score. If good Kenny Hill shows up, this could be ugly. I just don't see Oklahoma scoring enough on this TCU defense. TCU: 35--OU: 28
Seeberg:  I'm not sure what to make of this matchup, other than it's crucial to any conference outside the SEC's chances to get somebody in the playoff.  TCU has a competent defense and offense, while Oklahoma has a fabulous offense and technically does field a defense.  The Sooners won't need a ton of stops to get this win, however, and I suspect they will get just enough.  TCU: 31--Okla: 42

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Miami Hurricanes
Draper: I'm torn in this game because Miami finally went up against a good team in VA Tech and took care of business.  The Irish have faced a lot of good teams this year and handled them, but we're all waiting for the other shoe to drop.  The injury bug is biting the Irish at the wrong time, but can they hang with the swagger of South Beach?  Watching the Canes and Rozier, I've found their offense to be extremely lacking.  While I don't trust Brian Kelly to keep rolling, it's about the time of the year when a Mark Richt team crashes back to Earth.  The Irish play like a champion for another week and end the undefeated season in Miami.  ND: 24 -- UM: 20
Hoying: Last week was put up or shut up time for the Canes, and they put up 28 points and shut up the Hokies. But now the fearsome Notre Dame ground game is invading the Miami suburbs. It's not like Miami hasn't seen an elite rushing unit before (hello, Georgia Tech), but in stud RB Josh Adams's absence last week, the Irish passing attack woke up the echoes, leaving Miami with a potential two-headed hydra to deal with. If the Canes are going to keep their magical undefeated season alive, the turnover chain is going to have to appear early and often. Expect the unexpected. The swag, and the swagger, are back in Coral Gables. ND: 20--UM: 27
Schweinfurth: Catholics vs. Convicts is back!!! Okay, so not quite to that extent. How about Golden Domes vs Golden Turnover Chains. In reality, Miami has been escaping teams they should be blowing out. Notre Dame has done nothing but surprise me all year. In fact, I keep picking them to lose because of Brian Kelly's "big game" history. I have to change my tune here. the Domers are running all over teams. Their only loss is close to Georgia? I think I'm starting to come around. ND: 35--UM: 21
Seeberg: Anybody have this as a critical game at the beginning of the season?  If so, I hope you're collecting your winnings and enjoying them thoroughly.  After a series of ugly wins, Miami dispatched Va Tech with ease last week while Notre Dame has done away with pretty much everyone in their path since losing a squeaker to Georgia early in the year (also, in hindsight, a crucial game.  Amazing, isn't it?).  I picked Va Tech over the U last week, so obviously I don't quite trust the Hurricanes yet, but they do get this one at home.  Still, the golden domers have RB Josh Adams on the fringe of a Heisman invite, and if they feed him enough, they should be able to grind Miami down late.  ND wins a close one.  ND: 27--UM: 17 

Oklahoma State Cowboys @ Iowa State Cyclones
Draper: Weee...another big 12 matchup of teams you forgot existed! Iowa State SENT IN THE CLONES to dispatch of the two real contenders in the Big12 but couldn't keep the train rolling.  Mike Gundy and Company don't provide any shocks when they (again) win impressively against the bad teams and drop close calls against the top teams.  I'm not sold on the Clones and Mike Gundy is still a man who is middle aged...that's good enough for me.  I don't think the Cyclones can keep up in this one.  Go Pokes. OkSt: 42--ISU: 28
Hoying: Meanwhile, in the Big 12's second-tier game, we have the giant-killer Cyclones and the disappointed Cowboys. With losses to both Oklahoma and TCU, Oklahoma State is all but out of the chase for the Big 12 rematch abomination championship game, but Iowa State already holds a couple of tiebreakers and can pick up another here. And while they don't have to play the indomitable IOWA HAWKEYES again, Iowa State should have its hands full trying to stop QB Mason Rudolph, RB Justice Hill, et al, who just hung up 52 on Oklahoma. OkSt: 45--ISU: 34
Schweinfurth: Iowa State has caught lightning in a bottle this year...until last week. Oklahoma State can put up points in a hurry and I just don't see the Cyclones being able to keep up. I can see Iowa State winning if the game is close, but I think OSU pulls away in the third. OkSt: 42--ISU: 35
Seeberg:  I've lost all idea of what will happen in the Big 12 this season.  Iowa State plays fabulous defense (at least by its conference standard), but the Cowboys hung approximately 38,722 yards of offense on the Sooners in a defeat last week.  I expect both teams to be hungry after rough losses last week, but the Cyclone magic of 2017 may have finally run its course.  Cowboys late.  OkSt: 34--ISU: 31

Michigan State Spartans @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: Can a home team get a win? Let's hope so for the Buckeyes sake.  Dantonio has been remarkably adept at achieving success on the level that MSU expects (Big Ten titles and wins over Michigan and/or OSU).  This game is all about heart and desire.  The Buckeyes remain the far superior team on paper, but "that's why they play the games".  As CFN put it, one team enters this game 7-2 on a high with all goals in front of them and the other enters 7-2 and the sky is falling.  Can Urban motivate the Buckeyes to play for the prize of a Big Ten championship? JT needs to have a bounce back in the worst way due to the 5 second memories of Buckeye Nation.  I think he'll be ok (not awful or great) on Saturday which will be enough for the Buckeyes to smell victory.  The defensive line MUST get pressure to ease the burden on the linebackers.  I expect a back and forth game (although I'd REALLY appreciate a resounding comfortable win), but the Bucks find enough pride to muscle out a victory and keep their sights on the Big Ten Championship.  OSU: 31 -- MSU: 21
Hoying: By now you've probably heard the fun little tidbit that the home team hasn't won this game since 2007. This stat is mildly amusing but doesn't really speak to any particular futility by the Buckeyes in Ohio Stadium. The Spartans have only been to visit twice during that period: in 2011 against the worst Ohio State team in 15 years, and in 2015, when a playoff-bound MSU beat a flat and uninterested Buckeye squad. Despite what you'll hear this week, this is not really a great and historic rivalry (Tressel was notably 6-0 against MSU) but it has been annoying of late, with the Spartans ruining Buckeye title hopes in 1998, 2013, and 2015. The thing is, though, those Ohio State teams were all reallllly good, whereas this one is...flawed I guess is the best way to put it. Not much danger of coming into this one overconfident after the way the linebackers, safeties, and JT played last week. And the way MSU QB Brian Lewerke has suddenly started shredding opposing defenses. Having a good game against Penn State seems to be rat poison, as both Iowa and Ohio State proceeded to lay eggs the week after doing so. Let's hope a Michigan State letdown follows as well. MSU: 17--OSU: 28
Schweinfurth:  I have to be honest, I taped last week's train wreck with good intentions. I watched the first half and promptly deleted it. I get that there may have been an huge emotional let down after that Penn State win, but there is no excuse for this defensive line to get pushed around the way Iowa did. Between that and the Wilson/Meyer combo forgetting that the Bucks have a couple of stud running backs...Ohio State is 2-3 in games where Barrett is the leading rusher (take out the garbage time rushes by Williams last week). I really hope the defense is angry (let the hate flow through you) because another performance like last week is unacceptable. This is a double digit point spread, but this game is historically close. I have the Buckeyes close, but this is going to be ugly. MSU: 13--OSU: 17
Seeberg:  In what I sincerely hope is a statistical anomaly, the home team hasn't won this game since the Buckeyes emerged victorious in 2007.  Last week was just...just bad.  I blame coaching far more than playing, however.  J.K. Dobbins had 4 carries for 47 yards on ONE DRIVE, and only two carries the remainder of the game.  As with nearly every loss Urban has suffered as head of the Bucks, the running backs have all but disappeared.  What happened to the two-back set with Weber and Dobbins we've heard about for weeks?  I get wanting to save some stuff, but down two scores on the road in the 3rd quarter seems like as good a time as any to deploy a thing or two for which the defense wouldn't have been able to prep.  This game, like most between these two schools, will be won in the trenches.  I have yelled for it ALL YEAR (seriously, read the other posts I've made).  So please, PLEASE get at least 30 carries between Weber and Dobbins and grind the Spartans down.  PLEASE, Urban, I beg of you!  MSU: 24--OSU: 31

Upset Special
Draper: Georgia Tech over Virginia Tech
Hoying: Arkansas over LSU
Schweinfurth: Florida State over Clemson (aka Clemsoning)
Seeberg:  Utah over Washington State





SPART-AAAAY!

Grading the Bucks: Week 10 -- Iowa

Well....that sucked.

Offense: D-
I'm the first to rush to JT's defense when he is unjustly blamed, but he shoulders some of the blame for this loss.  He had a pretty terrible game.  I will say that ONLY 2.5 of those interceptions will be his fault (yeah...only...).  The one by the endzone was a freak play by a stellar corner and the 3rd int was ripped out of a receiver's hand (although I give JT half the blame for that one).  The first two were all JT and there is simply no excuse.  He looked tentative in the pocket and seemed to force throws to his 3rd or 4th read when they weren't there.  The running backs were similarly invisible (more on that later).  O-line was eh as were receivers.  This 24 points isn't terrible but this offense needs to be better than that, especially when the other team is spotted 4 extra possessions.

Defense: F
JT was bad, but the defense was infinitely worse.  I was embarrassed watching this defensive performance.  This is a team that scored 10 points....TEN... in an OVERTIME game versus Northwestern...and they drop half a hundred on OSU? I feel like I'm taking crazy pills!  The defensive line never got home.  Early in the game, I commented on how well Iowa's O-line and QB were playing, but I always thought they'd tire and the Bullets would wear them down...never happened.  Nick Bosa deserved to get ejected for that stupid hit (and that was the turning point of the game by the way--it would have been 4th down in a tie game).  The glaring problem is the linebacking corps which was just terrible (something I never thought I'd write about OSU).  Akrum Wadley ran all over the Bucks and the tight ends couldn't be covered.  Inexcusable.  Our linebackers can't cover (3TE TDs and one to the freaking fullback!) and they can't stop the run if the D-line isn't plugging holes.  This unit was worse than any unit in any game this season which is really saying something with our special teams.

Special Teams: A-
And then? Special teams was actually the best part of the game? Kickoffs into the endzone, a made FG, decent punts and coverage (one semi-shank).  Overall, nothing to complain about here.  This game is almost bizarro Penn State.

Coaching: D-
Once again, the running backs disappear in a big game, inexplicably. Sometimes, the coaching staff looks like geniuses and others, they faceplant.  The defensive scheme was totally confusing and the linebackers play hasn't improved throughout the year.  Talent only goes so far.  Offensively, nothing made sense.  Where the first quarter had punch/counterpunch, later quarters saw the offense crawl into a shell and stop playing.  Interestingly that the Penn State game had the best adjustments and motivational coaching of the year, followed by this travesty.  Running JT is fine, but let's let Dobbins and Weber get the rock as well. 

Overall: F
What can you say? The game was a failure on nearly every front: turnovers, failure to stop the run and pass, no heart, bad scheme, etc. etc. This may have been the worse loss since I've been at OSU when considering both teams skill level and the situation.  It was a flat out embarrassment and all sectors deserve the blame.  That being said, next week is another week.  Win the rest and the B1G is ours.  Not what we wanted the end goal to be, but here we are.  Beat Sparty, Beat Blue, Beat Wisconsin, and win a NY6 game (yes, get the Illibuck too....woo).  It may be a consolation prize but that's the motivation now.  Get it done.

Week 10: Super Smash Football Melee

Standings
1. Draper (30-9, 1-8 upset)
2. Schweinfurth (29-10, 0-9 upset)
3. Seeberg (27-12, 5-4 upset)
4. Hoying (26-13, 1-8 upset)

Now that we've finally hit November, the back-loaded schedules are starting to pay off. No more stretching for a terrible 4th game to pick: feast your eyes on an 8-pack of barn-burners of such variety that one of us might actually pick a different team to win!

Oklahoma Sooners @ Oklahoma State Cowboys
Draper: Always love some good Bedlam.  After the initial CFP top 25 release sees the Sooners at number 5 (unexpectedly to those that don't pay attention), Boomer Sooner is on top of the world! (Right where Mike Gundy and the Pokes want them).  OU had to have spent most of last week patting themselves on the back being ahead of OSU in the initial rankings, but Mason Rudolph has to be foaming at the mouth to knock that stupid grin off of Mayfield's bro-face.  Between the lines, these teams have different styles but have been winning the same way.  I expect the home crowd and the pounding paddles to make the difference clearing one of the roadblocks out of the Buckeyes' way in a shootout.  OU: 38--OkSt: 45
Hoying: Not counting UCF QB Mckenzie Milton, JT Barrett is now the the #2 most efficient QB in America, sandwiched between Baker Mayfield at #1 and Mason Rudolph at #3. So who's got the advantage here? It's hard to say. These teams are both offensive juggernauts with middling defenses. Each struggled against Texas and one or two other average conference foes. This one could come down to...coaching? Lincoln Rhyme is having a great first-year campaign at the Sooners' helm, but this isn't Mike Gundy's first rodeo. The Cowboys finally break free and continue on the path toward the most pointless championship game in all of sports, the round robin rematch. OU: 38--OkSt: 41
Schweinfurth: I am actually surprised Bedlam is this week. But alas, it is upon us. Oklahoma's defense has been hot garbage since holding Ohio State in check week 2 (I call that prepping all summer). It also appears that defenses have figured out Mike Gundy's high powered Cowboy offense but seemed to right that wrong last week. I am really not sure who to go with on this because both teams have been so good on offense and so, so bad on defense. I'll take the Pokes at home. Maybe Baker Mayfield can figure out how the CFP works after the game. OU: 42--OkSt: 49
Seeberg:  Oklahoma feels somewhat like a yo-yo state in regards to its two preeminent college football programs.  The Cowboys scored just 13 in beating Texas but seemed to right their offense last week, crushing West Virginia.  The Sooners, meanwhile, were practically anointed national champs after dismantling OSU in the 'Shoe before looking downright pedestrian for four weeks straight (loss to ISU, three 1-possession wins over unranked teams).  This definitely feels like a flip-a-coin matchup, but I'm guessing the Sooners pour it all out to win this one, then don't have enough left in the tank against TCU next week, probably because Mayfield will wear his arm out trying to plant another flag.  OU: 42--OkSt: 34  

Penn State Nittany Lions @ Michigan State Spartans
Draper: Some have called this the most beautiful trophy in all of sport...well, one has called it that (Franklin has to have something to talk about).  Both of these teams come off disappointing week 9 losses at 2 different ends of the spectrum.  PSU lost in heartbreaking fashion to the Buckeyes in a pseudo-elimination game (or is it?) and the Spartans went and doinked the season away vs. Northwestern to enhance Pat Fitzgerald's B1G COY resume.  That being said, Penn State is simply the far superior team and will be much angrier.  I don't think the loss to the Buckeyes will lead to a let down by the Lions, but rather a resurgence.  PSU big.  PSU: 38--MSU: 10
Hoying: The battle for the Land Grant Trophy is renewed, at the start of November rather than the end for some reason (see also early November Bedlam above). Michigan State's zombie-like shambling was good enough for the likes of incompetent teams like Michigan and Minnesota but could not withstand the withering triple overtime assault of the Northwestern Wildcats. The Buckeyes have shown that a team with offensive talent can move the ball on what seemed like an impenetrable Penn State front, but Sparty's been scoring about 21 points per game in B1G play, and that's including 14 points scored on the short field in OT last week. If the Nittany Lions come out frothing at the mouth (like their rabid mascot), they have a good shot to notch their third shutout of the season. MSU's stat correction stretch continues. PSU: 27--MSU: 3
Schweinfurth:  I'll be honest, this game shouldn't be close if Penn State is all they are supposed to be. Michigan State has has a lot of trouble running the ball and the Nittany Kitties are pretty ticked off after that JT Barrett throat punch. I don't see Barkley putting up over 100 yards but McSorely should do enough for the win here. PSU: 31--MSU: 10
Seeberg:  Penn State is good and angry.  Michigan State is...okay, though also likely angry after losing in triple OT to Northwestern.  Advantage?  Penn State.  This one might get ugly.  PSU: 38--MSU: 13 

Clemson Tigers @ North Carolina State Wolfpack
Draper: Can the Wolfpack summon the power of the full moon once again to take down the Tigers in Raleigh? NC State has been a really fun team to watch all year with Ryan Finley at the helm and a very talented defensive line. The problem? The Clemson defensive line is simply nasty.  Honestly, Clemson has probably the 2nd or 3rd most dominant roster in the NCAA right now in terms of athletes.  Dabo also knows that the loss to Cuse closed the door on any room for error.  This is a statement game for the Tigers to retake ownership of the ACC and I think they do it in a big way.  Clem: 27 -- NCST: 13
Hoying: Getting blown out by Notre Dame is a disappointment for NC State, but all of their (realistic) goals are still in front of them. Beat Clemson and the Atlantic division is all but assured. The Wolfpack have popped onto the radar after wins over Florida State (bad) and Louisville (also bad) but are in terrible danger of being exposed if everything goes pear-shaped on them for the second week in a row. Clemson hasn't exactly been humming along but their defense has been superb. The most points they've allowed all season is 27 (when they lost their starting QB and only scored 24 themselves). Before the season, this might have looked like a trap game before the Tigers host Florida State next week, but somehow I don't see Clemson being caught looking ahead right now. Clem: 27--NCSU: 16
Schweinfurth: Clemson's only loss came to Syracuse, on the road, on a Thursday night, when their starting QB got hurt. All of those circumstances add up to an upset loss. That's not going to happen here. These are two great defenses, but Clemson has the better athletes. This game should be close all the way. Watch if you like low scoring games. Clem: 17--NCSU: 13
Seeberg:  Clemson still has everything in front of them after seemingly falling off the radar by losing to Syracuse of all teams.  NC State won't catch them off guard this season like last year, where the Wolfpack would have beaten the Tigers if they had possessed even a borderline competent kicker.  Sorry to all my friends in Raleigh.  Clem: 34--NCSU: 17

Stanford Cardinal @ Washington State Cougars
Draper: Stanford looked like a complete shell of themselves vs the might of Oregon State.  Bryce Love didn't suit up for that game which shows me that the Cardinal are a one man team.  Can the evil genius Mike Leach crack the code and hold Bryce Love to fewer than 10 yards per carry?  Look at the Cougars schedule and you'll see that the 2 oops games happened on the road.  I'm gonna roll with my guy in Pullman and expect some evil pirate magic.  Maybe the Cougars will play Stanford football and pull this one out! Stan: 28--WSU: 31
Hoying: One team likes to run. One team likes to throw, and can't stop the run. I think we saw this movie last week, and I think it ended with Arizona QB Khalil Tate running wild and the Cats running up the score on the Cougars. It was fun to imagine Washington State as a contender for...something...for a while, but they're safely fading back into obscurity, and a healthy dose of Bryce Love looking for Heisman campaign redemption should speed them on their journey. Or Love won't play and Stanford will get stomped. Whatever. Stan: 38--WSU: 30
Schweinfurth: Washington State has followed the Mike Leach blueprint to a T this year. Win early games by a lot and draw all the voters in...and then bomb out. Look, Leach is a great offensive mind and his Air Raid system is hard to stop...unless your QB throws 5 picks. Yea, that happened. I don't see Stanford pulling a Cal and embarrassing the Cougs, but turnovers kill here. Stan: 30--WSU: 17
Seeberg:  Let's see what we have here.  Crazy Mike Leach-led club in full freefall mode?  Check.  Leading Heisman candidate, Stanford's Bryce Love, back?  Well, we don't know, as he is a game-time decision.  Stanford struggled mightily with Pac-12 bottom-feeder Oregon State in his absence, but my guess is a team led by Bryce Love at about 85% is still good enough to beat the pretender Cougars.  Stan: 24--WSU: 16

Louisiana State Tigers @ Alabama Crimson Tide
Draper: This reeks of Coach O return to Earth.  LSU reached a new low losing to Troy at home on homecoming, then rebounded nicely to beat Auburn and Florida.  But then we have Bama and Nick Saban.  There is a major talent disparity between these teams (unlike the more level playing field under much of the Miles era.  Bama is going to play a little angry after being demoted (justifiably) to the 2 line in the CFP rankings.  I have a feeling Saban and the Tide will remind the committee (and LSU) where the real power in the SEC resides.  Another day at the office against an overrated LSU squad.  LSU: 10--Bama: 27
Hoying: Back in the late aughts, this game used to have bilateral BCS championship hunt ramifications. Now it just provides an annual illusory opportunity for LSU to score a big win and jump back into relevance, an opportunity they invariably squander. Alabama has won six straight in this series, though only 2 in blowout fashion. LSU's done a nice job of lucking into wins over juggernauts like...Florida...and losing to Sun Belt teams, while Alabama has been blowing out (bad) team after (bad) team. The best team the Tide have faced, Texas A&M, managed to hang within one possession of Alabama, and it's not outside the realm of possibility that a slightly more talented team could spring the upset. Even FSU was only down 10-7 before their season blew out its knee in the third quarter. I just don't think Coach O and friends have their act together quite tightly enough to make it happen. LSU: 14--Bama: 24
Schweinfurth: It looks like everyone has forgotten how bad LSU was at the start of the year. I mean they were talking of firing Coach O after like 4 games. The SEC has two good teams and a lot of overrated teams. Bama falls in the former category. LSU: 10--Bama: 31
Seeberg:  I know, I know, this is a "big" game.  Except I literally trust nobody in the SEC outside of 'Bama and Georgia.  If the Tide lose a game to a team that lost to Troy (and lost nearly a $1 mil game check in the process) the transitive property of college football- and the imperialism map- will look flat-out insane.  No chance that happens.  LSU: 17--Bama: 35

Virginia Tech Hokies @ Miami Hurricanes
Draper: I'm trying to figure out if this game has mattered since there was a Vick under center for VT (Michael or Marcus).  Miami has been leading a charmed life this season but the only team with a modicum of talent they've faced was FSU and they had the game lost until the Noles kindly handed them the win.  I don't know much about VT but they've had a more taxing schedule.  Yeah, Clemson took their toll, but wins over West Virginia and BC (yes, that BC) are better than the Canes have on the resume this year.  Home game for the Canes, but no one cares.  Virginia Tech pulls off a big win in Little Havana.  VT: 20 -- Miami: 17
Hoying: Is it time for the Big East championship already? Will any of our readers get that dated reference? Anyway, this game is meaningful for both teams in the first time in forever. The last time Miami was in a title chase in November they got utterly pantsed by Famous Jameis and co. Can we look forward to a similar exposure here? All signs point to yes, except that Miami keeps finding ways to pull out absurd endings. Teams like this are itching to get tagged, unless they don't. I have a feeling the losses may start coming in bunches, but I'm going to hold off until the Hurricanes' water breaks. VT: 15--Miami: 16
Schweinfurth: Miami is severely inflated this year. TWO last second wins already. Does anyone remember those Mark Richt coached Georgia teams? They were always good and then choked in big games. Virginia Tech is no slouch and I believe this will be relatively low scoring. Bud Foster's D shows up big and makes a play to win it, probably a pick of a lob to the sideline. VT: 21--Miami: 17
Seeberg:  Miami just keeps finding ways to win, which is both a positive and a negative.  Beating UNC- you know, that 1-8 powerhouse- by a whopping 5 points is sad...and Virginia Tech beat them by 52.  I was surprised how low the Hokies were in the initial playoff rankings, but it's clear the committee valued resume over the eye test.  Va Tech hasn't beaten anybody, but that'll change by the end of this weekend.  Hokies big.  VT: 38--Miami: 17

Arizona Wildcats @ USC Trojans
Draper: Rich Rod? Good? I don't know about that, but Khalil Tate is just chewing up opposing defenses like crazy. They just took down the Cougs in impressive fashion, but that puts them on the radar of 'teams to not take for granted'.  The Trojans have been the second most disappointing team this year, but the athletes in LA are a different class than those in Tuscon.  USC may have pooped the bed in their two losses to Notre Dame and Washington State, but the Irish have shown to be more than a mirage, and the Cougs, well they aren't terrible.  USC isn't setting the world on fire, but I think they'll be able to put the Cats in their place.  Another year, another non-Arizona Rose Bowl.  USC: 38 -- Zona: 27
Hoying: Just when it seemed like Rich Rod was going to be fired (again), the Zone-a read has been reperfected behind the steady arm and crazy legs of Heisman dark horse Khalil Tate. Not since the days of Pat White and Steve Slaton (or maybe JT and Zeke) have D-ends across America been so confused. Play to your strengths, I suppose, which means USC is pretty much screwed after going all-in on turnover machine Sam Darnold. As for defense, the last great rushing team the Trojans faced was...Notre Dame??? Gulp. USC: 38--Zona: 45
Schweinfurth: I have no faith in Sam Darnold. Seriously, go back and look at my previous posts. The dude is a turnover machine. Not good when you are on the road against a dominant run team. Khalil Tate has turned the Wildcats around this year (and probably saved Rich Rod's job). I look for Darnold to throw at least 1 pick and maybe even a pick 6. USC goes down again. USC: 38--Zona: 42
Seeberg:  Hmm, a Rich Rod-led squad against the Trojans.  Man this feels like ND vs. UM where I just wish everybody could lose.  The Wildcats' "signature" win was a stomping of Washington State last week while USC manhandled Stanford earlier this year.  I just don't trust Sam Darnold as much as I did at the start of the year, but I trust Zona's D even less.  First to 50 might win, but I'll curb those expectations just slightly.  USC: 49--Zona: 38

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Iowa Hawkeyes
Draper: Iowa wants this game played in the teens but do they have the horses to slow down the Buckeye offense.  JT and Company have seemed to figure some things out vs. the Lions and I expect them to continue to improve.  The road environment in Kinnick isn't a day at the park, but the 3:30 kickoff is a God-send.  Weird things happen in Iowa City after dark (ask PSU this year--almost-- and Michigan last year.  The Buckeye defensive line should hold Akrum Wadley in check.  So long as the offense can crack 20, I feel pretty good (even with the hot mess of the kickoff unit).   How will JT handle the acclaim (he's used to everyone saying he sucks)?  I expect 250 through the air, 100 on the ground from Dobbins, 75 from Barrett, and 50 from Weber with at least 4 sacks from the rushmen.  The Hawkeyes have a decent defense, but the Buckeye offense is simply too much.  Iowa "waves" goodbye to their chance at a huge win and Ferentz inks another 5 year deal after the keeping the game withing 30.  OSU: 38 -- Iowa: 10
Hoying: Well, we've now seen the Buckeyes slice and dice one of the B1G's elite offenses, hanging 39 on Penn State. Unfortunately, they have to do it again. Iowa has given up more than 20 points exactly once in conference play, to Penn State. Granted, the other offenses the Iowa has faced are such firecrackers as Michigan State, Illinois, Minnesota...this week will be a bit of a stiffer challenge. On the other side of the ball, Iowa features a tiny running back and an immobile pocket passer. The D Line is going to feast. Ohio State is hitting its groove, but let's not forget 2014, when JT etc. conquered Michigan State and then underwhelmed a bit for the rest of November. As long as the Buckeyes don't win the coin toss and defer, they should be OK in this one. OSU: 31--Iowa: 10
Schweinfurth: Let's go back to the Penn State game for Iowa. They played an elite defense and looked miserable. They really didn't move the ball much outside of a few desperation drives. And now, here waltzes in one of, if not the best, defensive line in the nation. That big, fast, and on a mission to destroy stationary QBs. Oh hi Nathan Stanley. Please put on this extra padding because you will probably get mauled. Let me air this as well. Everyone wants to complain about the quick screens and outs to the sidelines from the OSU offense. Two of those 4th quarter TDs DON'T happen if OSU doesn't show that early. Go watch the safeties and linebackers bite on those two plays. It's a total set up. Yes, you will see more of those passes, but they will be accompanied by some shots down the middle of the field. Johnnie Dixon will have another feast if all works out. This game isn't at night, which helps, but Iowa is still a tough place to play. This game isn't flashy, but it's a win. OSU: 38--Iowa: 10
Seeberg:  The scheduling gods may have actually done the Buckeyes a solid here, making this a 3:30 game instead of a night contest.  Maybe Urban's complaining helped?  In any event, Ohio State beat three opponents last Saturday (Penn State, Ohio State's kickoff team, and the refs), so just one team should be pretty easy, right?  Not so fast.  Iowa plays some seriously boring, ball control offense, and even the most prepared/well-coached squad imaginable is likely to let down at least somewhat after that massive victory.  I expect the Bucks to start slow- though not in such a disastrous fashion as against the Nits- before asserting themselves from mid-2nd quarter on.  Expect a workman, Wisconsin-like win.  Let the RBs eat please!  OSU: 35--Iowa: 13

Upset Special
Draper: Indiana over Wisconsin
Hoying: South Carolina over Georgia
Schweinfurth: Wake Forest over Notre Dame
Seeberg:  Texas over TCU

Grading the Bucks: Week 8 — Penn State

After some time to digest, it’s time to examine the results of the epic clash from last Saturday.  I think most are now ready to join me on the JT bandwagon.  I’ll welcome you back with open arms as long as you apologize :).

Offense: A-
Welcome home Mr. Barrett.  You are finally getting some recognition that you have richly deserved.  Yes, the offense started slow, but boy did they show up when it counted.  I’m very disappointed with Parris Campbell as he still hasn’t figured out how to be more than an athlete (fantastic speed/athletic skills, but he's not a wide receiver yet), but the rest of the receiving corps was quite good.  The star of the show was under center and he delivered.  He did have a mishandled handoff that seemed to be the death knell (all you naysayers on twitter told me the game was over...), but the leadership and poise he showed even when the chips were down was incredible.  The O-line was a major bright spot as they held up very well against a very good PSU defense.  Running backs have also continued to plug away impressively.  It all centers around the signal caller, and that is why they shined.  Did anyone forget that PSU was the number one scoring defense? No longer!

Defense: A
Ok, wait a minute. A defense gives up 38 points and gets...an A? How does that work? I must be getting soft.  Let’s be honest: the opening kickoff return wasn’t their fault, and the first TD was the result of a fumble and an absolutely PERFECT pass and catch (watch the replay--no defense for that), not to mention another stupid kickoff return to the 21.  Ask Saquon Barkley what he thinks about this defense.  Other than a 36 yard TD run (which was nice) the Bucks held Mr. October Heisman to about 21 inches per carry and he went backwards in the 4th. The defensive line was SPECTACULAR as we’ve touted all year.  Again, with all that went wrong, this unit kept the Buckeyes alive and delivered.  The secondary got a little chewed up by Gisecki, but that was it.  McSorley—Nothing, Barkley—Nothing but 1 run good run.  I’d take that any day. Oh yeah, let’s not forget the Touchception in there and another interception called back on an extremely questionable DPI.  With everything going wrong, the defense kept the hope alive.

Special Teams: DRUNK
Now things get interesting.  I dodged the question up top but I’ll answer it here.  The kickoff unit gets a freaking ZERO.  That was worse than an F.  I said nothing makes me more angry than kicks out of bounds...and now I’m on team ‘kick it out of bounds so I don’t have to see this crap’.  It was a total embarrassment of kicking and coverage that it looked like a 1920s Vaudeville act.  BUT one thing no one wants to mention: the rest of the special teams units were actually excellent.  2 made FG (seems pedestrian, but Nuremberger delivered in when everything else was crumbling), kickoffs routinely returned to the 35+ by OSU, no punts returned (guess how many yards the Bucks have given up this YEAR on punt returns?  ZERO), and how soon we forget the blocked punt.  I was dumpster firing early, but the special teams weren’t that bad! (But yes, the kickoff unit was actually worse than you remember).

Coaching: A-
This was primarily a psychological award.  Keeping a team believing they could win after the first haymaker (kickoff return) and the second one (fumble and quick score) is no small task.  The offensive schemes were weird to say the least early on with the return of the pass to the flat but it did help spread out the defense to make that sweet underbelly of the middle of the field open.  JT is a master of carving up the middle of the field with the short to midrange passing game and it was set up nicely.  There was a bit of desperation going for the 4th down early on, but I think it was really a coin flip.  The coaches gambled and lost (on a superb PSU tackle on KJ Hill).  That's ok.  You need to believe in the call and I know the coaches wouldn't apologize.  It wasn't an easy call, but I don't think there was a wrong decision in that situation.

Overall: A
Epic comeback against a hated team in conference that (oh by the way) was the number 2 team in the nation.  It wasn't perfect, but the grit/resolve this team showed was undeniable.  The talent is there and if they put it all together, look out.  Best defensive line in America, reloaded secondary, amazing running backs, improving wide receivers, very good O-line, and a trigger man with all the intangibles, and yes, the physical and mental ability no matter what the haters say (JT--MY GUY)--this team could be special. Just keep climbing that ladder.