Week 10: Look Away! Look Away!

Standings:

1.) Hoying 31-10 (3-6 upset)
2.) Draper 30-11 (0-9 upset)

3.) Seeberg 29-12 (0-9 upset)

4.) Schweinfurth 28-13 (3-6 upset)

We wish we were in Dixie this week for what could be the game of the year (other than The Game) and another top ten (*sigh*) matchup to boot. Whatever you do, don't stare too closely at what the Buckeyes are going to do to Northwestern in Evanston. Viewer discretion is advised.

Tennessee Volunteers @ Georgia Bulldogs

Draper: The eyes of the college football world descend on Athens this week to see if the defending National Champs can take out the resurgent Vols.  One thing that needs to be discussed early, very few of the wins in big marquee matchups have gone to the away team (OSU over PSU, UT over LSU, and Bama over Texas are about it).  Granted, the Vols have one of those, but I'm not ready to welcome LSU into the Top 10 fahmuhlee (very odd ranking).  Georgia is salivating to have a big game between the hedges and they'll get it.  If they can knock Tennessee and Hooker off schedule early, I think they slowly/methodically squeeze the life out of them.  This just feels like a hyped game for the ages, but those usually come crashing down as duds.  I'm going with the Dawgs to reclaim the top spot.  UT: 20--UGA: 34
Hoying: Remember those halcyon days before the Haskinsing in Ann Arbor, when it looked like Georgia and Ohio State could be on a collision course for the Playoff? And we knew Ohio State's defense was trash but we thought that our vertical passing game would be enough to challenge Georgia in a way no other team could? Well, here's basically that matchup, only instead of at a neutral site we're squarely between the hedges. The Bulldog defense is slightly worse than last year's, but they still have the same ultra-efficient offense, as long as they're not playing Missouri. Tennessee was built to challenge Alabama's suspect secondary, but Georgia will be a tougher rock to crack. On the other side of the ball, nobody's going to mistake Stetson Bennett for CJ Stroud, but he should feast against Tennessee's awful pass defense, and Georgia's rush attack is a credible enough threat to keep the Vol D honest. It's been fun, Tennessee. Let's see what another year of development can do. UT: 24--UGA: 28

Schweinfurth: This Tennessee offense is something to behold. Hendon Hooker has gone from transfer "meh" QB to a Heisman front runner. Then along come the Dawgs. Georgia is a bit beat up, but this is still one of the best defenses in the country. I've gone back and forth on this game all week. It keeps coming back to the Vol's defense. If they can get some stops, they have a chance. I'm just not sure they can get enough. Georgia wins an entertaining game. UT: 28--UGA:31
Seeberg: First off, I'm astonished the CFP didn't put these two at 1/2 to make this matchup perfection.  Bravo to them for staying marginally impartial.  That said, what a doozy between the hedges.  My other alma mater is way ahead of schedule with Heupel at the helm.  Love him as an offensive mind but didn't expect him to be this good as a head coach.  The Dawgs, as we know, bring an excellent D and a great crowd.  However, Hendon Hooker is actually 24(!) years old and a seasoned vet.  And UGA is missing two defensive starters down for the year, including one in the secondary.  I SO want to see UT/OSU for the natty in January...but just not quite yet.  Stetson Bennett may actually be the difference, and a big stop late seals it for the new #1 come next week.  UT: 27--UGA: 34

Clemson Tigers @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Draper: I'm intrigued by this game.  Notre Dame has 2 of the worst losses you'll see this year (Stanford and Marshall in South Bend), but they certainly showed some juice against the Orange last week.  Clemson has been living on the edge all year, but Dabo loooooves the underdog 'us against the world' mentality.  The Irish have been written off, but there's a change Marcus Freeman wakes up those echoes and dethrones the Tigers.  Heck with it.  I'm going with the upset. Cheer, cheer for old Notre Dame.  Heavy dose of Mayer gets it done.  Clem: 24--ND: 27
Hoying: Usually there's one team a year that seems to be on a Playoff trajectory but with zero chance of making noise once they get there. And in an interesting twist, this year's team is NOT Notre Dame; it's this week's opponent! Clemson really impressed the Playoff committee with their unconvincing wins over a few teams ranked outside the top 15 (that won't be ranked much longer) but I don't think anyone paying close attention to the Tigers' inconsistent offense and overrated defense has much faith in them to beat an elite team this year. Good news for Clemson: their Cincinnati-esque schedule doesn't include any elite teams, as the best team left on their schedule is either a hyped-up South Carolina, or possibly a one-loss North Carolina in the ACC Championship. And that one loss was to...Notre Dame. Good luck figuring the Irish out this year. Beating Syracuse, hanging with Ohio State, and losing to bad bad bad Marshall and Stanford. The offense has never really recovered from losing QB Tyler Buchner against Marshall (not that he was doing much of anything before he was knocked out), which doesn't bode well for trying to move the ball against the Tiger front. Also, as you may have noticed in the season opener, Notre Dame's rush defense isn't that good, and while Travis Etienne isn't going to magically reappear on the Tiger sideline, they'll be able to find more than enough room to run to outpace the anemic Irish attack. Please, Buckeyes, get the #1 seed so we can thrash these clowns in the semifinals. Clem: 27--ND: 20
Schweinfurth: Notre Dame has turned it around and even got a quality win last week at Syracuse. Unfortunately, I don't think the Irish have an offense capable of consistently moving the ball on the Tiger defense. Clem: 17--ND: 14
Seeberg: Props to Marcus Freeman this season.  After the 0-2 start, and the staggering loss to Stanford sandwiched in there as well, this season could easily have gone off the rails for the Fighting Irish.  But the buy-in seems to be there as the offense miraculously awoke in a dominant win over the Orange last week.  In to town comes another, better orange-clad crew in Clemson.  DJ is still their QB, as he probably should be as Cade only threw 4 passes in Clemson's escape vs. Syracuse two weeks ago.  The defense, however, is a couple notches above what ND has seen since, well, since us.  It's hard to imagine the golden domers getting much going on that side of the ball, and Clemson should be able to do enough-ish on offense to stay unimpressively undefeated.  Clem: 27--ND: 17

Alabama Crimson Tide @ Louisiana State University Tigers

Draper: Here we go.  Let's give Brian Kelly another shot at Bama.  As stated above, I think the world was pretty surprised to see LSU in the top 10, but that just helps Bama.  The Tigers seem to be hitting their stride and buying into Kelly's system, but they don't have the horses to keep up with the Tide.  If Bryce Young is healthy, even the raucous crowd in Death Valley won't be enough.  Death, taxes, and Bama.  Bama: 38--LSU: 20
Hoying: Has anyone else noticed that Bama kind of stinks on the road this year? No shame to losing to Tennessee on a last-second field goal, but the Tide are another late field goal away from another road loss to good-not-great Texas. Then again, they're essentially a 2-point conversion try to losing to bad Texas A&M at home, so maybe the Tide just aren't quite up to the Saban death machine standard overall this season.  Conversely, though, are we sure that Death Valley is the house of horrors it's so often been this century? Yeah, Ole Miss got thrashed there but Tennessee didn't seem to have any problems dispatching the Tigers. Brian Kelly deserves all the credit for dragging LSU up from the pit that Coach O fell into after losing Joe Burrow, but this team has that 2012 Ohio State feeling of a hard ceiling just below elite level. We wouldn't have beaten Bama that year, and I don't think LSU will this year either. But they could, so buckle up. Bama: 28--LSU: 24

Schweinfurth: This is a top 10 match up because the CFP committee wants it to be so. Bama is gonna thrash LSU. Maybe the home crowd keeps LSU in it for a bit, but LSU is not a top 10 team. Bama: 42--LSU: 21
Seeberg: In an attempt to be fair to the CFP committee, I do get that LSU beat Ole Miss and they wanted to put the TIgers ahead of Kiffin's krew.  That said, LSU has an extra loss so...mulligan?  In any event, Bama now has another resume-bolstering opponent to beat.  The Tigers are better than anticipated in Brian Kelly's first year, and Bama is more flawed than most of us thought as well.  But the gap is still too wide.  Tide rolls in to Baton Rouge and rolls out with a W.  Bama: 34--LSU: 23

Texas Longhorns @ Kansas State Wildcats

Draper: As per usual, Texas is in the 'we have better athletes, but we love choking games away' mode.  They aren't a polished team, but the spurts are there. Manhattan is an underrated tough place to play.  It's going to be the glitz and glamour of Ewers, Robinson, and Worthy against the blue-collar Deuce Vaughn.  If Texas can keep the tempo up, I think they get it done, but it's going to be a barn-burner.  Hook 'em outlasts the slowplaying Wildcats and reenters the edges of the Big 12 race.  UT: 27--KSU: 24
Hoying: Remember when it seemed like Kansas State beat Texas every year? I had to look it up: Texas has now beaten the Wildcats 5 straight times, and a 6th would mark the longest streak by either team in the series. It's become kind of a meme to rag on the Longhorns' back-or-not status at this point, but they've been a bit snakebitten this season, losing by 1 to Alabama on a late field goal, fumbling an overtime game away against Texas Tech, and whatever the hell they did last week to give the game away to Oklahoma State. Kansas State seems to be peaking at the right time, and might even get their usual starter Adrian Martinez back this week, but I still think Texas has the higher ceiling. At some point the switch will flip (think of the Oklahoma game) and Texas will be back...to just outside relevance. Texas justifies the Committee's faith. UT: 31--KSU: 27
Schweinfurth: Kansas State looks the part. Shutting out a high powered Ok State last week was impressive. And here comes Texas. The Longhorns have been up and down with the QBs, but they aren't quite back yet. UT: 28--KSU: 38
Seeberg: I didn't believe much in the Wildcats heading into last week.  Swing and a miss there after they absolutely boatraced a top 10 team 48-0.  Now they welcome to town the inexplicably ranked 3-loss Texas squad with probably more talent but less idea how to utilize it.  Still, it's tough to imagine K-State getting into the 40-point range again with Bijan Robinson, in theory, helping the Longhorns control the ball.  I have no idea who the second-best team in the Big 12 is right now, and this game will make it that much harder to determine.  Longhorns late.  UT: 31--KSU: 23

Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ North Carolina State Wolfpack

Draper: Not much to say about this one.  The Wolfpack have been a total shell of themselves without Leary under center.  I know the Deacs had a turnover bout for the ages last week with 6 in a quarter (!), but it's tough to see that happening again.  Lean toward the team with the better QB.  WF: 27--NCSU: 17
Hoying: Sometimes you just need to burn the game film after a particularly rough week, and Wake Forest - Louisville is one of those games. Turnovers can be kind of luck and context dependent, and I don't expect even an above-average NC State defense to victimize Wake QB Sam Hartman for the second week in a row. Unfortunately for the Pack, there's no waking up from their nightmare, as Devin Leary isn't getting better anytime soon, and they don't really have another viable option at QB. I watched them play Virginia Tech. I don't have high hopes for them the rest of the season. WF: 31--NCSU: 13
Schweinfurth: Woof, was that an implosion last week by Wake. They are a better team than that and I think they rally and recover this week. WF: 35--NCSU: 24
Seeberg: I have no idea what happened to the vaunted Wake offense last week.  Six turnovers in a quarter has to be some sort of record (I hope).  Before that I would have trusted Sam Hartman more than anyone else on the field in this game.  My guess is he might start out a bit gun-shy but that many giveaways has to be an aberration.  Deacons bounce back.  WF: 37--NCSU: 31

THE Ohio State Buckeyes @ Northwestern Wildcats

Draper: After last week going into the fourth, this should be a palate cleanser.  Northwestern is B-A-D, bad. There is no reason this shouldn't involve OSU going up and down the field while NW punts periodically.  Stroud should help solidify Harrison as the Biletnikoff front runner while Miyan and TreVeyon do work on the ground.  Depending on how the UGA game goes, Stroud could find himself back on top of the Heisman standings.  Big games all around for the Bucks as we mark time until Nov. 26.  OSU: 58--NW: 10
Hoying: The Ryan Day era of Ohio State football presents an interesting contrast against our prior two legendary coaches. While they each had their safety blanket suite of plays, Day is always tinkering, like he's trying to figure out which of his and Kevin Wilson's creations will work on the field against a real live opponent. This is a good thing, as we haven't seen a loss in the Day era from the offense refusing to adapt (the defense, on the other hand...). I predict a multitude of experiments this week, most of which will work because the team on the opposite sideline is stocked with players worse than Ohio State's scout team. Even if the weather is bad, that will mostly just create chaos, which, as we have seen over the last couple of weeks, heavily favors the Silver Bullets and their opportunistic ways. We're on to Indiana. OSU: 42--NW: 0
Schweinfurth: Guys, Northwestern's offense is BRUTAL. If this is the weather game everyone is predicting, the Cats are gonna be in a world of hurt. The Bucks run defense has been very good this year. Day is going to have the offense run the ball and do his best Herb Brooks imitation (AGAIN!). In all honesty, get up big and get the starters out before the 4th quarter. OSU: 42--NW: 6
Seeberg: Prepare for a sloppy noon (11 AM local, bleh) kick, Buckeye Nation.  25 MPH winds and long natural grass aided by rain today and tomorrow will make for a gross track, all in an effort to conspire against the Buckeyes to...maybe allow Northwestern to cover?  (The spread, if you were curious, is currently 38 points).  Northwestern is just plain bad this year, having won exactly 1 game...and 0 on this continent.  Iowa managed to score 33 points- all on the offensive side of the ball- against them, and that's not exactly a positive omen.  The conditions may make things uncomfortable at times, but the talent gap is just too vast.  Run it, stay healthy, and get out of Evanston as quickly as possible.  OSU: 45--NW: 10

Upset Special
Draper: Indiana over Penn State
Hoying: Texas Tech over TCU
Schweinfurth: Michigan St. over Illinois
Seeberg:  Tulsa over Tulane

Week 9: All Your Base Are Belong To Us

Standings:

1.) Hoying 28-10 (3-5 upset)
2.) Draper 28-10 (0-8 upset)

3.) Seeberg 27-11 (0-8 upset)

4.) Schweinfurth 25-13 (2-6 upset)

In Toaplan's cult 1991 scrolling shooter Zero Wing for the Sega Mega Drive, the player character faces off against the overwhelming invasion of the mysterious CATS, who gleefully declares that "All your base are belong to us." This Saturday, the script is flipped as cats from the Little Apple to Happy Valley hope to defend their bases from various invading OSU forces, with a few invading Kentucky Wildcats sprinkled in for variety.

Oklahoma State Cowboys @ Kansas State Wildcats

Draper: What to do with the Big12.  It seems like no one really sucks (except maybe Iowa State or WVU), but no one is truly great.  Kansas State has been thriving off their transfer QB, but no one really believes they are true contenders.  The loser of this game is likely out of the championship, so the importance cannot be understated.  I still believe that Gundy and company are the best team in the conference so even though they dropped one at the last purple team they faced, redemption abounds for the Pokes.  OkSt: 35--KSU: 31
Hoying: It's a broken record at this point, but this one may depend on the health of the quarterbacks for Kansas State. Last week, even after losing Big Ten legend Adrian Martinez early, backup Will Howard still did more than enough to build a giant lead against Big 12 frontrunner TCU. Then he, too, fell off, and so did the wheels for the Wildcats. This week, Martinez is still a game-time decision, but Howard should be back in any case. Either way, moving the ball against the Cowboys shouldn't be the tough sledding the Wildcats faced in the second half last week. Jim Knowles isn't in Stillwater anymore, and the defense has been suffering without him. Okie State particularly suffers against the run, which is KSU's bread and butter. I'm going to bank on healthy Wildcat QB play, and Kansas State to throw another curveball into the Big 12 race. OkSt: 31--KSU: 35
Schweinfurth: At first glance, I was ready to pick OkSt. They still have the remnants of Jim Knowles' defense, I thought. Then I looked at the numbers, woof. Back to a typical Big 12 defense I guess. After seeing that, I like the Adrian Martinez redemption tour to continue. OkSt: 35--KSU: 42
Seeberg: Ah yes, the 2022 "we blew a big lead against TCU" bowl.  To their credit, the Cowboys bounced back with an upset(?) win over Texas last week.  How will the Wildcats recover?  My guess is not well.  TCU loss aside, the Cowboys have been respectable on D with the remnants of Jim Knowles' work.  The offense has been solid as well, and it's hard to imagine the Wildcats keeping pace for four quarters.  Cowboys keep their ultra-slim CFP hopes alive.  OkSt: 30--KSU: 23

Kentucky Wildcats @ Tennessee Volunteers

Draper: Can the Wildcats get back to early season heroics and derail the Vols magic season? I actually think this could be a trap game for the Vols with Will Levis and the Wildcats throwing a little defense at the Heisman hopeful, but going to Knoxville on the high they are experiencing is a tough pill to swallow.  I think UK goes up early and makes the Vol Nation sweat it out, but Hyatt keeps the magic going as the Vols look to UGA.  UK: 35--UT: 42
Hoying: Oh, man, get Admiral Ackbar all over this one. The Vols have been terrific so far this year, with an offense as good as anyone not wearing scarlet and gray, but the big dog defending national champs are looming next week, and all that stands between now and then is a team practically tailor-made to exploit the Vols' weaknesses. Suspect secondary? Meet Will Levis, in the running for next year's overall top draft pick and probably back to fighting form after missing a game and being at less than 100% for another. Tennessee didn't slow down Alabama in the slightest, and they barely put up a fight against Florida, either. If Kentucky can play a solid 60 minutes of football, they can definitely catch the Vols sleeping before Footballpocalypse next week. But...that's not really UK's style. Turnovers and other mistakes doomed Big Blue two weeks in a row and kept an otherwise dominating performance against Mississippi State closer than it needed to be. I would love to pull the trigger on this but I just don't think the stars are going to align for the visitors. Mark your calendars for a possible #1 vs. #2 next Saturday. UK: 38--UT: 42
Schweinfurth: Kentucky is a decent team this year. I honestly can't see the Wildcats winning here. Hendon Hooker is just playing too well right now and I'm not sure the Cats can keep up. UK: 35--UT: 45
Seeberg: Side note:  Remember kids, James Franklin was deciding between Sean Clifford and Will Levis in 2020 and went with Clifford and not the 1st-round talent.  Yikes.  Regardless, Levis is back and near 100% against the Vols.  Under circumstances from 20 years ago, when UK was awful and UT was still relevant, this could be considered a trap game for the Volunteers before going to play top dawg Georgia.  Kentucky's offense, however, isn't catching anyone napping as it's top notch.  A let down last week might have also aided the visitors, but UT-Martin was the perfect post-Bama opponent for a safe W to ease back into SEC play.  Well done schedule gods!  Hendon Hooker feels like Stroud's only legitimate threat for the Heisman, and looking good while beating UGA next week would certainly warrant it.  In the mean time, however, expect lots of stats and points on both sides again, but the Vols just feel destined to make it to Athens unscathed.  Tennessee late.  UK: 31--UT: 41

THE Ohio State Buckeyes @ Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions

Draper: Much of the national media is downplaying this game as the Lions were blasted by Michigan and the OSU juggernaut doesn't look to be stopped.  I'm a little concerned as Happy Valley seems to send the Saturday Scaries at the Bucks.  They tend to pull it out, but it's usually close.  In a position by position comparison, there is no reason for this to be close.  They only people starting for the Lions that would sniff the field for the Bucks would be the corners so the talent disparity certainly exists. Stroud and Co. need to take control of the B1G by sending a message.  While the corners at PSU are quite good, our receivers are better.  In addition, the running game should make noise with a below average rush defense that was decimated by the Wolverines.  On the other side, I don't really see Clifford consistently orchestrating drives against the Silver Bullets.  The safeties should be able to limit the big plays and the Bucks cruise to 8-0. OSU: 52--PSU: 20
Hoying: There are three Big Ten opponents that Ryan Day's Buckeyes have never beaten by more than two scores. The Illini, whom Day has never faced (a crime hopefully rectified at season's end). The Gophers, whom Day only saw in C. J. Stroud's coming out party. And our erstwhile not-rivals. Yes, despite playing the Lions every year, the Buckeyes haven't found a way to pound them into the pavement since 2015. Even the 2019 juggernaut Bucks caught the fumble bug in the second half and took their closest victory of the year against Penn State at home. Last year, in the Buckeyes' pajama game (never again), Penn State revealed Ohio State's red zone and 3rd down rushing struggles that would plague them for the remainder of the season. This year we got to meet those problems a week early, but I'll gladly take a 54-10 clunker of a win (in my day, the Buckeyes struggling would mean Sickos-quality 10-7 wins). The good news is that the Buckeyes didn't let their lackluster first half dictate the game, and this should come as no surprise. Wilson and Knowles have been brilliant this year at halftime adjustments; the Buckeyes lead the nation in 3rd quarter offense and 3rd quarter scoring margin. That's bad news for the Nittany Lions, as I don't see a lot of positions at which they hold a talent or scheme advantage. Either the Buckeyes get out to a quick lead and never look back, or they have to struggle for a half and turn on the jets after the bands take the field. Sean Clifford is not good enough to take advantage of any problems Ohio State may have at corner, and they don't have the receivers this year for the standard Penn State "Five Hundred!" offense to work. And our favorite maize and blue villains have shown that playing the Lions could very well be good for whatever ails your running game. Buckeyes limit their mistakes and cruise to 8-0. OSU: 41--PSU: 20
Schweinfurth: What is Penn State this year? They still have Sean Clifford and a defense that got bullied by TUN. So, it appears to be a typical James Franklin team. Yes this game is on the road in a very hostile environment, but one gets the sense this Buckeyes team welcomes it. Overall, the Buckeye offense is just too much to handle. 

OSU: 45--PSU: 17
Seeberg: Looks good on paper doesn't it?  #2 vs. #13.  #2 on the road in a notoriously hostile environment against a 1-loss conference foe?  All the makings of an excellent game.  But I just don't see it.  The Nittanies had their doors blown off by UM to the tune of 418 rushing yards in a game they lost by 24 and it honestly wasn't that close.  The strength of their defense is the pass D and it should be a decent challenge for Stroud and his litany (look at me rhyming with Nittany!) of receivers, but the run game HAS to get going after being largely thwarted by Iowa last week.  I know Day's instinct is to chuck it all over the yard, but the PSU linebackers are largely suspect and a heavy dose of Henderson and Williams is just what the OC should order.  Also, did you know the Buckeyes have SEVEN pick-6s since 2002 against Penn State?  Twice they had two in one game!  Somehow, Clifford hasn't been a victim...yet.  He already threw an awful one week one against Purdue, I think it's time for a second.  Run the ball, keep everyone healthy, and do your best to get out of that podunk Happy Valley before dusk.  OSU: 38--PSU: 13

Upset Special
Draper: West Virginia over TCU
Hoying: California over Oregon
Schweinfurth: Notre Dame over Syracuse
Seeberg:  Nebraska over Illinois

Week 8: Color Rush

Standings:

1.) Hoying 25-9 (3-4 upset)
2.) Draper 24-10 (0-7 upset)

3.) Seeberg 23-11 (0-7 upset)

4.) Schweinfurth 21-13 (2-5 upset)

The hits keep coming in this midseason of football. The Buckeyes continue to play garbage teams but across the landscapes are marquee games to decide who is the superior orange and the premier purple, and whether blue and gold can equal green.

Syracuse Orange @ Clemson Tigers

Draper: Syracuse got the big win last week which was thought to answer the question 'Is Syracuse good?'  The problem was that NCState's QB was out and no one really believed in them that strongly. Now I'm comfortable saying that a win this week will answer the question in the positive.  With that in mind, I think the answer is still no.  Clemson isn't the world beater of the past, but they're quite good and easily the dominant force in the ACC.  The Orange can grab a strangle hold on the Atlantic here, but I don't see it in Death Valley.  The talent disparity is too great.  Also, how can you defeat the 'bus slowly driving around the stadium for no reason' entrance? ....chills.... Syr: 13--Clem: 27
Hoying: Color me surprised. Syracuse pulled out a great game last week against NC State. Yes, the Wolfpack have no offense (still better than another team in this week's previews) but the Orange were able to break through the brick wall that had been the NC State defense over the last few weeks. Now they'll have to do it again, against a team with  not only an even better defense but also the actual ability to move the ball. And in Death Valley. The Tigers, meanwhile, looked vulnerable for a bit last week and actually surrendered a fair bit of yardage to a resurgent Florida State, but they haven't really been challenged in the second half since their offensive awakening 2OT win over Wake Forest. It's smooth sailing back to Charlotte after the Tigers dispatch the Orange, with a nice cushy game against Notre Dame (sigh) to break up the monotony along the way. Syr: 20--Clem: 30
Schweinfurth: I'm honestly shocked Syracuse pulled that one off last week. Dino Babers' squad has been a major surprise, but they are about to face a different beast here. DJ has finally figured out how to be a serviceable QB and that's a scary thought with that defense. Clemson should win this fairly easy. Syr: 13--Clem: 35
Seeberg: Don't adjust your TVs for this one.  No, not just for the insane amount of orange, but the fact that BOTH teams still have a 0 in the loss column.  The 'Cuse handled NC State pretty easily last week, the likes of which we haven't seen since, well, Clemson dispatched them by 2 scores.  Jim Boeheim Dino Babers has things humming along nicely for the Orange, rewarding them for their patience in retaining the head coach now in his 7th(!) season there.  Unfortunately for Dino, Dabo does not have a short memory and the TIgers' upset loss to the Orange in 2017 likely still does not sit well.  The Clemson D is a notch below what it's been, but DJ has shown some signs of improvement and that should be enough to win this neon showdown.  Syr: 17--Clem: 31

California Los Angeles Bruins @ Oregon Ducks

Draper: UCLA has come out of (seemingly) nowhere to be the standard in the Pac12 this year.  Chip Kelly took a bit, but he seems to have the Bruins on an upward trajectory, but that's for the fan to decide.  Oregon has rebounded nicely after the week 1 drubbing to UGA, but can they keep the Pac12 train running.  DTR is one of the top QBs in efficiency this year, but I don't really see the explosion.  BoNix is a slot machine QB, but I do know that Autzen will be a madhouse.  This is a statement game for both teams as a win places UCLA as the standard bearer for the Pac12 in the playoff (maybe USC) and a loss puts Oregon into the 'please ignore week one' category.  This is about the time of year when the Pac12 graciously bows out of the playoff conversation, so it's time for the Ducks to shine.  UCLA: 27--Ore: 34
Hoying: Welcome to the Chip Kelly bowl. And you can see the effects he has had on these programs: this is the first time in the history of these two schools that they have met as top 10 teams. That's no small feat in such a top-heavy year for rankings, either; we're well into late October and these teams have a combined one loss between them. UCLA keeps facing off against supposedly superior competition and feeding them a steady diet of DTR and Michigan castoff Zach Charbonnet on the way to convincing wins. Sure, the defense hasn't been quite up to snuff, but it's not like Oregon has held any FBS teams under 20 points this year, either. And they still have Bo Nix taking snaps for them. Other than their win over BYU, who, spoiler alert, might actually be pretty bad this year, the Ducks are most famous for having the doors blown off them by Georgia in the opener, on a day when they somehow turned 7 for 15 on third down and 2 for 3 on fourth into 3 points. Eugene is a tough, tough place to win, and UCLA's only road trip to date this year was at shambling blob Colorado, but the Bruins are just the more consistent team all around. UCLA: 41--Ore: 34
Schweinfurth: Oregon has looked very solid since losing to Georgia in week one. UCLA has good offense, but I'm not sure if they can get enough stops to win this. Should be a fun one to watch. UCLA: 35--Ore: 42
Seeberg: For seemingly the millionth week in a row, it's another "are these teams for real?" game out west.  UCLA found a QB and Chip Kelly has utilized DTR wonderfully to the point that a big game here could give him a Hooker-esque vault into Heisman contention.  Meanwhile, Bo Nix has remembered he's throwing to guys in green now (or pink, or whatever Phil Knight has the Ducks trotting out in this Saturday) and the Ducks have been excellent on offense since that bashing by UGA in week one.  It may not be the classic that Utah and USC provided last week, but there should be lots of points in a close contest.  I don't trust Bo Nix much, but I do trust Autzen Stadium enough to see the Ducks sneak out a W late.  UCLA: 38--Ore: 44

Kansas State Wildcats @ Texas Christian Horned Frogs

Draper: Can TCU keep getting away with this? Close win over upstart Kansas; OT win over an injured Oklahoma State team (with a sandwich drubbing of doormat OU) and the hits keep coming.  Quinten Johnson is a stud receiver and Duggan needs to continue to feed him for results.  I feel like the Cinderella Story needs to end sometime soon, but I'm not sure Adrian Martinez is the one to deal the blow.  Midnight hasn't struck yet as the magical TCU season rolls on.  KSU: 20--TCU: 30
Hoying: Ah, prime time on Fox Sports 1, just the place you'd expect to find what may be the decisive tilt in the battle for the regular season Big 12 championship. TCU's been living dangerously the past few weeks, needing a spectacular catch to get by Kansas and a furious rally and overtime heroics to best Oklahoma State, but that's part and parcel of facing a murderer's row, as Kansas State will be the fourth straight ranked opponent the Horned Frogs have faced (yes, I know Oklahoma and Kansas aren't ranked anymore, shhhhh). The Wildcats, on the other hand, seem to be more of a product of their schedule. A close win over Oklahoma isn't as impressive as it may have once been, and beating Iowa State by 1 isn't going to impress anyone, especially when you're scoring the same 10 points that earned you a loss at home  to Tulane (at least that's now a ranked loss, I suppose). TCU, in contrast, hasn't scored fewer than 38 points in a game all season (yes, I know they needed 2 OTs against Oklahoma State to get there, shhhhh), and which Kansas State's defense is good, they aren't going to be able to slow the Frogs down enough for the anemic Wildcat offense to keep up. Hmmm...will we see any other games like that this weekend? KSU: 17--TCU: 30
Schweinfurth: This one comes down to the fact that TCU is just better. They also have a shirt with Hypnotoad. All hail Hypnotoad. KSU: 14--TCU: 33
Seeberg: Violet, you're turning violet, Violet!  Still better than that purple and red combination the Horned Frogs sported last weekend in a double-OT escape against the Cowboys.  Regardless, TCU is a far cry from the Gary Patterson days of tough D and decent offense.  It's full-on Big XII scoring now!  Kansas State, meanwhile has exactly 0 marquee wins after the Sooners have proved to be a dumpster fire.  TCU outscored a couple of other excellent offenses in the Jayhawks and Cowboys, and the Wildcats' offense is...less-than-excellent.  Frogs hop away late.  TCU: 34--KSU: 16

Iowa Hawkeyes @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: OSU circled this as one of the 5 marquee games on this year's slate...unfortunately, 3 of the 5 (maybe 4????) have turned out to be real duds.  This matchup is a true rarity of the nation's #1 offense vs. the nations #130 offense.  For those counting at home, that's the best and worst of ALL teams.  Yeah, Iowa sports a decent defense, but don't focus on the limited yards per game they've surrendered.  Considering the offenses they were facing, the defense is fine, but nothing that should scare the Bucks.  Stroud needs to lead a bit of a clinic to remind the Heisman voters than Hendon Hooker isn't the chosen one.  Since the schedule never picks up until TTUN, CJ needs to keep dismantling everyone from start to finish as he's been doing.  Throw in a dose of Williams or Henderson with a touch of Biletnikoff frontrunner and stud receivers and this should get ugly fast.  Maybe we'll even see the supposed #1 WR in the country this week (but I don't think we will or it would matter). The goal here is for the defense to continue the growth and shut down the ineptitude on the black and gold sideline.  Heck, we even have a better punter than the kings of the punt!  Bucks by a million.   Wash. Rinse. Repeat. Iowa: 9--OSU:45
Hoying: Faithful readers, I have good news and bad news. And they're the same: Ohio State's schedule is bad. Really bad. Yes, there's one mountainous roadblock at the end, but if you watched that roadblock play last week, you'd be forgiven for thinking that the supposed other good opponent remaining for the Buckeyes are a bunch of chumps. But enough about next week; let's focus on the chumps at hand. Iowa cannot score. I would say "the end" here, but the last time I wrote a preview like that was for the 2020 Big Ten Championship, and while Northwestern didn't do anything on offense that game, they were able to frustrate the Buckeye O for the better part of 3 quarters until Ryan Day got it through his head to run the damn ball. Now, 2022 Iowa is much, much worse than 2020 Northwestern, but they still do have some weapons on defense Ohio State will have to account for. The problem for the Hawkeyes is that Kevin Wilson has had two weeks to account for these problems. The Buckeyes are not going to be caught napping, especially when Ryan Day still carries the scars of 2017's debacle close to the windbreaker. The Buckeyes should have more healthy options on offense during this game than any other this season, including the opener, and they're going to put on a clinic for how to pick apart an elite-level defense. Just don't turn the ball over 5 times and don't get too stubborn with the play calling and this one should be easy, m'kay. Iowa: 3--OSU: 38
Schweinfurth: Iowa's defense has shown to be their best offense this year. I don't know what that says about the Hawkeye's offense other than, it's bad. That defense will get some stops. They are good enough to keep the Bucks under 40. JSN should be back this week. Just in time to give other d coordinators more heartburn. Ryan Day brought up the scars of the last time these two teams played. There's no overlooking this one. Bucks win. Iowa: 3--OSU: 35
Seeberg: Honestly, I truly wish I had the guts to predict a shutout here.  Iowa has literally, no exaggeration, the worst offense in the FBS.  131st out of 131 teams.  It's laughable.  Unfortunately, Ryan Day is a nice guy to the point that Ohio State has actually only covered the spread in half of its games this season.  The spread this week is 30.  THIRTY!  Against a top 10 defense!  That's how pitiful the Hawkeye offense is.  Five years since the baffling demolition in Kinnick- in Day's first year as OC- and Ryan still wants to make amends.  I hope the late TD I'm predicting doesn't come to fruition, but I suspect it will.  Stay healthy (fingers crossed), stay disciplined on D, and cruise to a W.  Iowa: 10--OSU: 38

Upset Special
Draper: UT-Martin over Tennessee 
Hoying: Memphis over Tulane
Schweinfurth: Minnesota over Penn State
Seeberg:  Mississippi State over Alabama (some men just want to watch the world burn)

Week 7: Watching the World Burn

Standings:

1.) Draper 23-6 (0-6 upset)
2.) Hoying 22-7 (2-4 upset)
3.) Seeberg 20-9 (0-6 upset)

4.) Schweinfurth 19-10 (1-5 upset)

By the time the clock strikes midnight on Saturday night, the college football landscape will look far different than it does today. Title hopes will be ruined. Pecking orders will be pecked out. And the Buckeyes have the luxury of sitting back and watching the top teams around them take the L's that will send them tumbling from the ranks of the unbeaten.

Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions @ Michigan Wolverines

Draper: This is truly an interesting matchup as the Wolverines have passed the gauntlet of garbage (ok...Maryland is decent) with no true problem but have shown chinks in the armor at times.  My assessment of the team is that Corum is a stud, McCarthy has some potential but is still raw, and the defense is a shell of last year's squad.  Penn State might have (probably has?) the biggest win by shellacking Auburn in Jordan-Hare.  Now, Auburn is nothing to get excited about (I think Maryland might be better), but winning on the road in that fashion is impressive.  Sean Clifford enters his 30th year as the PSU QB with a boatload of meh and a few eye-popping stellar games.  Can he pull one together in Ann Arbor this weekend? Probably not....but that doesn't mean the Lions are cooked.  I expect a boring rushing battle between the two with Corum vs. Patterson looking for the breakaway score.  As stated above, I think Corum is solid, so I'll go with the maize and blue at home.  PSU: 20--UM: 24
Hoying: Modern football is largely a quarterback-driven game. And, for what feels like the millionth year in a row, Penn State has a hyped-up mediocre player behind center. Sure, Michigan QB J J McCarthy isn't exactly a proven product either, but he seems to have shown a high ceiling against the garbage he's faced so far, and he has the much, much better rushing attack backing him up. There's been a lot of buzz about Penn State RB Nicholas Singleton, but outside of a couple of explosive runs, he hasn't held a candle to Corum. Add in the home factor and the James Franklin play-calling factor, and it appears that the paper tiger undefeated team in the Big Ten this year is...the Nittany Lions. Blowing out Auburn isn't enough to convince me otherwise (but does it qualify them to be ranked #1?). Michigan remains on pace for a 2006-esque showdown in Columbus, against a 2006-esque runaway Heisman trophy winner [note: offer expires after regular season]. PSU: 17--UM: 27
Schweinfurth: I really don't know what to think of either of these teams. Neither team has a beaten up on overmatched teams so far and the strengths of schedule are just awful. Penn State still has Kyle Clifford at QB, and that may be just enough to swing this to Michigan's favor. PSU: 21--UM: 24
Seeberg: I just...I just don't know what to make of these teams this year.  They're undefeated.  Yay?  Penn State escaped a conference opener against Purdue (who, granted, plays everybody close at least) and stomped a listless, lame-duck-coached Auburn team.  UM beat...(buffering).  I fear these might just be two more fake-good teams that have been fortunate to remain unscathed due to lousier opponents.  Astonishingly, the primary difference may be Harbaugh's QB.  I think the maize and blue are just a little bit more diverse offensively.  If it were a white out I would likely lean the other way, but Clifford is good for at least 1-2 disastrous plays and that should be enough to seal it for the home team.  UM late.  PSU: 20--UM: 27

Alabama Crimson Tide @ Tennessee Volunteers

Draper: Will Bryce play? That seems to be all anyone wants to talk about.  Milroe is a nice fill in and will be good down the road, but he was a little shaky last week vs. the Aggies.  Tennessee has been lighting the scoreboard up with everyone's Heisman runner-up favorite, Hendon Hooker.  When I look back at Bama losses in the regular season, they don't seem to lose these marquee matchups very often.  Saban's defense isn't the juggernaut from the past couple (ten?) years, but it's still full of elite athletes that I don't think the Vols have seen this year.  If I'm the Tide, I come out with the ground and pound to physically beat up Tennessee (both offensively and defensively) and impose my will while taking the air out of the ball.  Rocky Top hasn't been this fired up for a game since Kiffin came to town last year, but they truly truly believe this is the one.  I just can't buy it.  The Evil Empire doesn't allow failure.  Bama: 30--UT: 24
Hoying: Speaking of quarterback-driven games, how is Bryce Young doing these days? Because if he's not at 100%, the Tide might be in trouble for the first time since...ok, well, the national championship wasn't that long ago but you have to go back a lot farther to find another game with Alabama facing such adversity. The Volunteer attack has been a buzzsaw so far this season, with QB Hendon Hooker following up last year's breakout season with this year's best QB-INT ratio (10:0) and leading the nation's #2 scoring attack (behind a certain team on a bye this week). And they're going to need it, because even if Bryce Young doesn't play, the Vols aren't stopping anybody this year, particularly through the air. True, the Tide needed long runs, not receptions, from RB Jahmyr Gibbs to stave off a furious Razorback comeback when Young went down, but I wouldn't trust the Tennessee secondary against Jalen Milroe, even if the complement of WRs isn't quite what we've come to expect from Alabama over the last few seasons. This game reminds me a lot of the 2020 Ole Miss - Alabama game, when Lane Kiffin threw everything in the bag at the Tide in a mad shootout. Tennessee's defense isn't quite as bad as the Rebels' was on that day, and their offense is a bit better. Also, if you remember (how could you forget), that 2020 Alabama team was one of the greatest in modern memory, while this year's has been playing with fire for too long. Their inconsistency is going to catch up with them at some point this season, and there's no time like the present, especially for the long-suffering orange and white faithful. Saban suffers his first loss at the hands of his lesser rival and the Vols set up an even bigger matchup against Georgia on November 5. Bama: 38--Tenn: 41
Schweinfurth: Be wary of the years where everyone says Bama is gettable. For some reason, Saban has those teams turn into death machines in games like this. Will Bryce Young play? This game is the next big leap for Tennessee. Hendon Hooker is the real deal, but I'm not sure the depth is there for the Vols quite yet. Bama wins, but it's close. Bama: 34--Tenn: 31
Seeberg: The experts can break this game down all they want, but it will likely rest on the shoulder(s) of Bryce Young.  Does he play?  Is he 80%?  95%?  Lord and Nick Saban only know.  To be fair, he isn't suiting up on defense which might be where the Tide struggle.  A W in this game vaults Hendon Hooker into legitimate, Stroudian territory when it comes to the Heisman conversation.  Will Anderson might get to him, but he can't cover the receivers too.  I expect a fun one in Neyland, and a "well Bryce Young didn't play/wasn't 100%" narrative to start immediately thereafter to get Bama back in the CFP down the road.  Bama: 31--Tenn: 37

Oklahoma State Cowboys @ Texas Christian Horned Frogs

Draper: TCU is riding high after their big GameDay win over <checks notes> Kansas? These may not be your parents Jayhawks, but I was surprised TCU didn't impose their will a bit more.  I think the reason was...they can't.  Max Duggan is orchestrating a nice offense against chump teams like Oklahoma, but the Pokes pass rush should be able to get home.  Sanders remains (in my humble opinion) the best QB on the field in this game (with all due respect to the mullet).  While the Frogs expect to get out fast, I think OSU plays a little reverse card and gets a quick stop or two followed by TDs to quiet the crowd.  It all comes down to whether Duggan has time to survey and/or run, and I don't think he gets it.  OkSt: 31--TCU: 20
Hoying: Poor Oklahoma State. They've done so well under Mike Gundy, and yet they never seem to be able to climb the summit as kings of the Big 12. Yeah, 2011 was nice (except for getting screwed out of the BCS Championship), but that was over a decade ago, and last year's loss by inches to the Baylor Bears has made the drought even more excruciating. And the road is not getting any easier this year, as the conference slate is a real murderer's row (except Oklahoma?), but the Pokes have bought themselves a bit of breathing room as one of only three teams left undefeated in conference play. This weekend provides a great opportunity to knock off one of the others. TCU, fresh off their turn as villain of the week after knocking off America's darling Kansas Jayhawks, feature one of the top offenses in the country, with great balance on the ground and through the air. And that's bad news for Oklahoma State, as Jim Knowles isn't around to regroup the defense after a somewhat rocky start to the season. Both teams should have success through the air, but TCU's better running game and slightly better defense should get the job done at home and solidify purple power atop the Big 12 standings. OkSt: 31--TCU: 38
Schweinfurth: Oklahoma State can't defend the pass. Yea, they can score, but they will need a stop to have a chance in this shoot out. TCU should win going away. OkSt.: 35--TCU: 45
Seeberg: Don't look now kids, but the bellcow program in the Sooner state isn't the Sooners.  Unfortunately, a better team in TCU has a date with the Cowboys this Saturday.  Last season I would've trusted a Jim Knowles-led D to outlast a solid TCU squad, but the remnants of his defense just aren't cutting it this year, allowing a whopping 44 points to Central Michigan in the opener and 31 to Texas Tech just last week.  TCU is too multiple on offense to not take advantage of the Cowboys' shortcomings on that side of the ball and should pull away late.  OkSt: 24--TCU: 41

North Carolina State Wolfpack @ Syracuse Orange

Draper: Everyone keeps asking if Syracuse is good; however, the better question may be, are either of these teams good? NC State has literally been gifted two wins from the Noles and the Pirates, but they 'find a way' (except against Clemson and that rousing 'bus around the stadium....whee).  Syracuse has beaten....no one.  I guess the last second win against Purdue was nice, but I'm not breaking the bank on Wagner.  Experience against a decent team matters here.  Go Pack.  NCSU: 30--Syr: 17
Hoying: Is Syracuse actually good? Well, they're 5-0, but it's taken a miraculous late comeback against Purdue and 5 field goals against Virginia, a team everyone else with a pulse has been blowing out, to get them here. NC State is a bit more of a known quantity: they aren't going to score but you're aren't going to, either. Clemson was able to make a bit of noise against the Wolfpack, aided by a couple of costly NC State turnovers, but everyone else has been pretty bottled up. Yes, it took a boneheaded late play to sneak by Florida State, but I'm not sure the Orange are even up to the Seminoles' level this season. I'm still not a big believer in NC State, but I think they'll do well enough to knock another unbeaten off their perch at the season's halfway point. NCSU: 20--Syr: 17
Schweinfurth: NC State should bounce back here. The Wolfpack seem to be the better team and I don't know what to think of the Orange. NCSU: 35--Syr: 21
Seeberg: Another matchup of "are they really good?" squads.  The Wolfpack went down in a heap to a resurgent, probably-actually-good Clemson team and the Orange have played Purdue...and that's it.  And they needed a LOT of fortune to escape that contest on the positive side of the scoreboard.  NC State knocks another from the ranks of the unbeaten.  NCSU: 31--Syr: 23

Minnesota Golden Gophers @ Illinois Fighting Illini

Draper: I know we all had this one circled as the powerhouse B1G West showdown.  Honestly, after watching the 'thrilling' Illinois/Iowa game last week, I don't know how I could pick Illinois to beat a high school squad.  Yeah, they keep winning these defensive battles, but it's not something I really want to subject myself to.  Bert can Bert, but Minnesota has looked pretty good outside of last week.  Ibrahim and Morgan should be enough to outscore the Illini in a shootout. Minn: 20--Ill: 9
Hoying: Finally, the one you've been waiting for. The Big Ten West has been quite a mess this season. You'd be tempted to call them a bit of a punching bag, except they have the exact same conference record as the East thanks to bottom-dwellers Rutgers and Michigan State. Another one of those awful East teams is Indiana, who has perhaps the most inexplicable win of the Big Ten season so far, knocking off Illinois back in September thanks to 3 Illini fumbles and some costly fourth down misses. Of course, Minnesota's record isn't spotless either as their last outing was a pretty solid humbling by Purdue. Stop me if you've heard this one before, but this one may ride on the health of a starting QB. It's not like Tommy DeVito has been lighting the world on fire for Illinois, but you really don't want to riding into battle with Art Sitkowski at the head of your troops. Yeah, Tanner Morgan wasn't anything special against Purdue either, but he's been much better than anyone Illinois has trotted out over the season as a whole. That should be enough to overcome a resurgent Illinois defense. Bert takes his first loss to the Golden Gophers. Minn: 24--Ill: 16
Schweinfurth: Minnesota is a pretty good team when Mo Ibrahim plays. We saw it last year. Illinois is getting love because they held Iowa under 7 points (and who hasn't at this point). Goldy should win this and get back on track to represent the B1G West.  Minn: 21--Ill: 12
Seeberg:  Ah yes, the B1G West matchup we all had circled at the start of the season.  To be fair, the Gophers have been very good the last 2 seasons...when Mo Ibrahim plays.  This is the poor man's version of Bama/UT where knowing if the best player plays and how healthy he is means darn near everything.  The Illini, meanwhile, out Iowa'd Iowa (3 FGs to 2) and out-Wisconsin'd Wisconsin (the Badgers had literally just TWO rushing yards).  I'm not sure, however, if Bert has the horses to out Minnesota Minnesota.  Gophers force the Illini to throw it and, well, they just can't.  Minn: 23--Ill: 13

Upset Special
Draper: FSU over Clemson (I know it's a wiener pick but GO NOLES!)
Hoying: Georgia Southern over James Madison
Schweinfurth: Kentucky over Miss St.
Seeberg:  Iowa State over Texas

Week 6: Thermopylae

Standings:

1.) Draper 20-4 (0-5 upset)
2.) Hoying 18-6 (2-3 upset)
3.) Seeberg 16-8 (0-5 upset)

4.) Schweinfurth 15-9 (1-4 upset)

In 480 BC, 300 hopeless outnumbered Spartan hoplites and their scant allies faced off against a far superior invading Persian force. The Spartans fought to the last man but were ultimately slaughtered by the visitors. When CJ Stroud's bombs blot out the sun, MSU will be left to aspire to their usual pitiful 27 points per game in the shade. On Saturday, Mel Tucker dines in hell.

Texas Christian Horned Frogs @ Kansas Jayhawks

Draper: Kansas is the feel good story of 2022.  Bringing GameDay to Lawrence for the first time leaving only 6 Power 5 programs to yet host the flagship's CFB pregame show (can you name them?) is truly awesome. Unfortunately, they have been living on the razor's edge.  They are MILES better than they have been in the past 12 years, but I think mediocrity looks like ultimate power when you've been a doormat for so long.  Jalon Daniels has been pretty good, but the numbers are hiding some close calls.  TCU, on the other hand, may have a little contender in them.  The Frogs led by Max Duggan are a real Big 12 contender and potential playoff buster.  While the stomping of OU was fun, this game puts them on a likely collision course with the Longhorns for a Big 12 title. Frogs spoil the GameDay debute.  TCU: 38--KU: 21
Hoying: Once I rose above the noise and confusion, just to get a glimpse beyond this illusion. I was soaring ever higher. But I flew too high...It's been a great run, Jayhawks, but you've been feasting on the dregs for too long. Your defense isn't great, and your offense failed to launch against the only stout defense you've faced this year (Iowa State). You can't rely on the other team to miss three field goals on the way to 3-point wins and hope to stay undefeated for long. The Horned Frogs, on the other hand, are a puzzlingly flat second half against SMU away from looking like a serious contender this season, dominating perennial Big 12 bugaboo Oklahoma on both sides of the ball last week. Therein lies the only hope for the Jayhawks in this game. Can TCU really get up to give their best effort against Kansas after such an exhilarating victory? Maybe not, but even a C+ effort should get it done, even on the road, against what is frankly a bit of a mirage. It's been fun, Kansas. Get over that bowl eligibility hump another week. TCU: 41--KU: 24
Schweinfurth: Kansas is such a great story to start this year. They have one of the top offenses in the country and have gone from also ran to the top of the Big 12. Unfortunately, they have to play a team that is just as hot and coming off a huge win against the Sooners. This will probably be the most entertaining game of the weekend and have tons of scoring. I just think TCU gets the one defensive stop needed to jump ahead. TCU: 45--KU: 42
Seeberg: Ah yes, just where we thought gameday would be this week when the season started.  Right?  RIGHT?  In any event, the football Jayhawks are undefeated and TCU is riding high after demolishing Oklahoma last week.  Kansas enjoys shootouts but actually won a defensive slog against Iowa State last week.  TCU, however, can score it too and likely has just a little too much talent for Kansas to remain unbeaten.  It should be competitive, though, as Lance continues upping the ante (and his next paycheck) guiding the 'Hawks.  TCU: 42--KU: 34

Tennessee Volunteers @ Louisiana State Tigers

Draper: Tennessee is the flavor of the month in the SEC, but both these teams seem to be rising a liiiittttttle too fast.  Hendon Hooker has put together some nice games, but I don't know if UT is really back to top level wuite yet.  Lucky for them, LSU isn't either. My text before the polls came out was "they're putting LSU over FSU aren't they".  The prophecy of SEC bias was fulfilled.  I'm honestly a little conflicted in this game because I'm not sold on the Vols ability to go into Death Valley and win, even with the talent disparity in their favor. A noon kickoff is just what the doctor ordered for Josh Heupel, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say the home crowd and the Tigah FAMuhlee reminds UT that they aren't back yet (and perpetuates the SEC strength via circular arguments).  Note: neither of these teams is good, but the narrative (regardless of the winner) will be that these are both 'serious' contenders in the SEC and beyond.  UT: 30--LSU: 31
Hoying: Really? We're putting LSU back in the top 25? To be honest, I haven't watched them much since their all-timer late game chili spill against Florida State but I do know that they did a whole lot of nothing last week except stand back and let Auburn collapse on their own. With Florida, Ole Miss, Alabama, and Arkansas coming up in the next few weeks, I expect that reality is going to set in very quickly for the Tigers, and it's going to start against the only team whose rise this year can rival Kansas's in improbability. Yes, I know the experts were expecting Tennessee to actually be good this time, and yes, I know Hendon Hooker was a known quantity in August when everyone was salivating over this offense, but when Florida was leading deep into the first half in Knoxville I found myself wondering "Oh Tennessee, will there ever be a rainbow?" But I'll be darned if they don't look like the class of the East and maybe even the biggest threat to Alabama in the SEC this season. Vols continue to roll and set up the game of the first half of the season against the Tide next week in Knoxville. UT: 31--LSU: 23

Schweinfurth: Hendon Hooker is playing out of his mind thus far and the Vol's offense is putting up ridiculous numbers. In my mind, LSU is rebuilding. Tennessee is well rested of the bye week and should win comfortably. The big question I have is, will Bryan Kelly's face turn the same shade of purple as his shirt? Tenn: 35--LSU: 20
Seeberg: Say what you will about Bryan Kelly, but he can coach it.  In a rebuilding year he has the Tigers ranked.  The Vols, meanwhile, are threatening to climb into legitimacy again.  I'm not convinced the Florida win is one to hang their hat on (they barely hung on, at home) but that program has OWNED the orange for nearly two decades so any win over that program is a big one.  Death Valley will keep it close, but Hooker is just a bit too good for Kelly and Co.  UT: 27--LSU: 20

Utah Utes @ California Los Angeles Bruins

Draper: I went to the Utes game last week in Salt Lake and was surprised at the 'meh' I felt watching the game. Cam Rising is a fine midtier QB, but I wasn't stunned. The Utah defense forced Oregon State into 4 turnovers (2 handed on a silver platter), but that 'blowout win' was a one score game going into the 4th.  UCLA is rebounding off a big win over the Huskies with an extra day to prep, but I think the defensive talent is a little stronger for the Utes.  Also, Utah has been catching teams off of big games (the close loss to USC seemed to affect the Beavs).  I'll go with two Utes to be the difference.  Clark Phillips and Cam Rising keep Utah on a collision course with SC for the Pac 12.  UU: 31--UCLA: 23
Hoying: Amazing how one play can affect the complexion of a season. If Cam Rising eats the ball instead of throwing a pick in the end zone at the end of the Florida game, there's a good chance the preseason #7 Utes are in the driver's seat for a playoff spot and a trendy pick to make some noise once they're there. Now they're stuck looking up at the future Big Ten legends leading the Pac-#TBD. Fortunately, with two big wins this week and next week, the Utes are right back in the Playoff discussion. Then again, it's not like UCLA is an easy mark. Just ask the erstwhile solid-looking Huskies, who were unable to brave the 20,000 hostile fans and escape LA with a victory. I still think the Bruins, and the Pac-12 in general, are for real this year, but Utah is too sound to let this one slip. Bring on the Trojans in Salt Lake City. UU: 31--UCLA: 27
Schweinfurth: I have no back up on this pick, but I'm gonna roll with Utah. They have looked like an experienced team and I'm not sold on the Chip Kelly rebuild yet. UU: 42--UCLA: 35
Seeberg: Well, like most years I struggle to determine what's happening west of the Rockies.  The Bruins looked darn good beating a respectable Husky squad last week and, therefore, are primed for a downfall.  If Oregon drops a game too the Pac-12 10 may have to borrow the ACC Wheel of Destiny to see who's going to play in their title game.  Utes late.  UU: 38--UCLA: 34

Florida State Seminoles @ North Carolina State Wolfpack

Draper: My beloved Noles are definitely improving.  A solid 4-0 record and a reasonably close loss to a ranked Wake team at home with a bevy of missed penalties.  However, the improved FSU squad still is a work in progress.  Their best hope is that NCState through everything they had against Clemson last week in a losing effort and are too deflated to show up.  I just don't think that's the case.  I'm extremely proud the the Noles aren't a complete and utter embarrassment this year and the future looks bright, but I don't think the have the horses to steal this one on the road.  FSU can absolutely win this game, but teh odds aren't in their favor.  FSU: 14--NCSt: 24
Hoying: So it appears that NC State is not the class of the ACC, same as, well, ever. We'll have to wait for Syracuse's visit to Death Valley to see who really runs the Atlantic division, but in the meantime we can have a couple of also-rans jockey for 2nd place. The NC State defense did a passable job holding a somewhat resurgent Clemson offense in check last week. A similar effort would be more than enough to bottle up the Noles, who had trouble breaking through a Wake Forest defense that's been less than impressive this season. Florida State seems to be back to competent, but not back to good, just yet. FSU: 17--NCSt: 27
Schweinfurth: NC State got humbled a little bit last week, but they should bunce back. The offense put up a good amount of points against a very good Clemson D. I'll double down on the Wolfpack, but I will probably regret it again. FSU: 31--NCSt: 35
Seeberg: Well, NC State still can't win the big game, we've known that for decades.  The question is...is this a big game?  The Seminoles had some moment this year before being stopped by Wake Forest last week.  They're still a bigger program than the Wolfpack, but in name only.  It might very well go the other way, but let's see if the Wolfpack can manage a moderately sized win.  FSU: 24--NCSU: 31

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Michigan State Spartans

Draper: The Green and White (quite a...sight?) congregate in East Lansing, donning the helmets of the conquering heroes of 1998 to take out the Buckeyes.  Unfortunately for them, I just don't think a throwback helmet and a mediocre coach with a $95 million buyout are going to be enough.  While upsets occur all the time (or near upsets...see UGA/Mizzou), I simply don't see the path in this one. Let's not forget that a SIGNIFICANTLY better MSU team came to Columbus last year and was bent over to the tune of 49 1st half points. Peyton Thorne is a mid-tier QB with few to no weapons and the MSU defense hasn't been able to stop a paper bag.  Stroud should feast.  I'd like to see JSN get some time, but I won't be surprised if he takes another week off before the bye.  The real point that needs to be made is to pump up Mr. Miyan Williams.  Every day I see more news about Henderson's return...should he return to the starting role? I'm not convinced.  Williams has been a phenomenal runner and I don't know if I'd rush to replace him.  Give the man some love.  Stroud throws for 4, Williams runs for 2, and the Buckeye defense keeps it dialed in.  The coaches will be quite focused on how the Bucks handle the road, but I think they pass with flying colors.  OSU: 51--MSU: 17
Hoying: Yes, Sparty is the traditional ruiner of great Buckeye seasons. But the days of a mediocre Spartan team kneecapping the Buckeyes are becoming rarer and rarer. Put 2013 and 2015 out of your head: one of those MSU squads went to the Playoff and the other would've gone had the Playoff existed one year earlier. At this point we have to go all the way back to 1998 to see the Buckeyes get pantsed by a less-than-elite Spartan group. I don't see this as a trap game. Traps have to have the capacity to be sprung, and Michigan State's problem is that they aren't good at anything. Especially glaring is pass defense, which should be a big scarlet flag for anyone who watched last year's air show. Yes, Stroud wasn't putting up numbers last week, but it's not like Rutgers cracked the code for how to stop the Ohio State passing game. The Scarlet Knights committed 3 defensive holding penalties and 3 defensive pass interferences. Amazing how the passing game suffers when your receivers aren't free to run. OSU scored on each of those drives on which the secondary committed a penalty, so I guess Rutgers did provide the blueprint for how to get blown out while making Stroud's numbers look pedestrian. The Buckeyes have a total of one trap game this season, and it's the visit to the Koopa Kids before you-know-who comes to town. Everything else is either Penn State or blowout alert. OSU: 45--MSU: 13
Schweinfurth: The Spartans are going to wear 1998 style helmets. Let that sink in. The Spartans are so desperate for anything in this game, that they are going to roll out stylized helmets circa one of their biggest upset wins. The truth is, that secondary is poo. I can see Harrison, Egbuka, JSN (if he plays), and company putting up TONS of yards. Even if the Spartans drop 8, Williams and Henderson are going to feast. I really want to see the secondary step up this week and make some plays. Thorne is going to have to throw a ton to keep the Spartans in the game. Bucks should win this BIG. OSU: 45--MSU: 14
Seeberg:  OK, first road trip of the year, a place Ryan Day has literally not even coached yet.  Team we thought would be decent at the start of the year that's now desperate to save a middling season.  Lots of pieces of the puzzle for a closer-than-it-should-be game, especially from a team that's taken a lot from us over the years.  That said, however, MSU has taken the bold decision to wear helmets from 1998, you know, when Sparty derailed a national title worthy Ohio State squad.  Hell, Cooper even beat UM that season.  Take note, Day and Co. and another 49-0 halftime score might happen.  Hard to think that will be the case again, but it shouldn't be close for long.  OSU: 52--MSU: 17

Upset Special
Draper: Washington State over USC
Hoying: Texas Tech over Oklahoma State
Schweinfurth: Arkansas over Mississippi St.
Seeberg:  Arizona over Oregon

Week 5: From Coast to Coast to Coast

Standings:

1.) Draper 17-3 (0-4 upset)
2.) Hoying 16-4 (1-3 upset)
3.) Schweinfurth 14-6 (1-3 upset)
3.) Seeberg 14-6 (0-4 upset)

The ranks of the undefeated continue to dwindle as the Playoff picture continues to take shape. Just kidding, it's going to be Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State, and the yearly rotating hapless sacrificial team. But since we have to play out the farce, this week we travel from Atlantic to Pacific (gee, the football is terrific) and down to Dixie's sunny shore on the Gulf Coast, where three pairs of teams put their perfect records on the line to chase the Big Three.

FRIDAY

Washington Huskies @ California Los Angeles Bruins

Draper: A nice little battle of unbeatens to start the weekend.  Washington has surprised with a win over underwhelming MSU, but a win is a win and Michael Penix has the Huskies making a little noise in the Pac12.  While I (like the rest of the world) have watched very little Pac12 football, this could be a fun back and forth game with Chip Kelly turning the knobs on the Bruins sideline.  In a matchup of fairly even teams, I tend to lean on the home field advantage.  After seeing the 'packed houses' the Bruins have been trotting out in the Rose Bowl, the advantage should go to UW.  Penix shows that B1G castoffs thrive in other conferences (see Joe Burrow).  UW: 37--UCLA: 27 
Hoying: Is the Chip Kelly experiment finally working in Los Angeles? For the first time in 5 years, the Bruins have started the season 4-0. Yeah, they played a Michigan-esque schedule to get there (not a coincidence: both these schedules suck because Michigan decided to dodge a home-and-home with UCLA starting this season), but better to beat bad teams than lose to them (just ask Texas A&M and Miami). Their purple opponents have already made one appearance on Let's Go Bucks! during this short season on their way to throttling Michigan State, who, newsflash, might not be any good either. But the Huskies have won comfortably in each of their 4 matchups so far this year behind the nation's most prolific pass offense. UCLA has been fine on pass D but they haven't seen anything like what the Huskies are cooking up behind Michael Penix & friends. USC will get their monster matchup later this season, but it'll be in Vegas, not in Los Angeles. UW: 37--UCLA: 31
Schweinfurth: This should be a fun late Friday night tussle. Just for kicks, I pulled up some of the season stats and these two teams are the same. Almost the same average score, same total yards, same points allowed, same yards allowed. This could be a full on offensive onslaught as both teams average over 40 points a game. Washington, to this point, has played the tougher schedule and Michael Penix, Jr. is off to a great start. It just all seems to be in alignment for the Huskies this year. UW: 42--UCLA: 38
Seeberg: Well look at that, UCLA is undefeated!  That record includes a miraculous escape against South Alabama.  Take away the cardinal direction and that would be impressive.  With it?  Not so much.  Nearing South Central Louisiana State territory (I'll take a Scotch and water, hold the Scotch).  Regardless, Wash U comes to town and will enjoy playing in front of dozens of people I'm sure.  Penix has not been sacked yet this season.  That's key not only for his effectiveness but also to keep his injury-prone self upright and available week by week.  The Bruins may get him on the ground, but my guess is it won't be often enough.  Huskies keep rolling.  UW: 41--UCLA: 27

SATURDAY

North Carolina State Wolfpack @ Clemson Tigers

Draper: Both of these teams have been fighting the 'are they reeeeally any good?' tag all year.  Clemson was the supposed #4 team, but has struggled of late while preseason hopes abounded in Raleigh to almost be silenced in week 1.  I really don't know how this one shakes out as I don't trust either team.  I'm pretty confident that the best unit in the game is the Clemson defense and a big game in Death Valley is a tall order no matter the Tigers' strength.  Gut tells me to lean on those that have been there before.  Clemson pulls out a close win before facing the ACC Atlantic juggernaut in FSU.  NCSU: 17--Clem: 20
Hoying: Across the college football landscape, the quality teams are concentrated in three divisions: the Big Ten East, the SEC...East? (no, really), and the ACC Atlantic. It seems like every week the Clemson Tigers are forced to prove themselves worthy of a return to the Playoff path by beating some undefeated upstart trying to deny them the Atlantic crown for the second consecutive season. After last week's fireworks show against Wake Forest, it's time to dial it down for a team that seems to be out-Clemsoning the Tigers this season. The Wolfpack may have had trouble containing East Carolina in the second half in Week 1, but they sure didn't allow whatever the heck happened to Clemson last week in Winston-Salem. The good news for the Tigers is that their offense showed its first signs of life in the post-Trevor Lawrence world in eking out a win against Wake. I think the Tigers remain vulnerable this season and I see them dropping a game at some point (a visit to Tallahassee is imminent), but home field tilts this just too far away from NC State for them to score the upset this time. NcSt: 20--Clem: 21
Schweinfurth: What will the weather look like for this game? We've seen games played at Clemson in a tropical storm before and it was something to behold. NC State has a defense with a pulse, and DJ has struggled at times. I expect this game to be low scoring. I really don't trust DJ to make the game winning play. Wolfpack win. NCST: 13--Clem: 10
Seeberg:  Well Clemson has looked downright borderline competent on offense of late.  Then again, Wake Forest carved them up to the tune of 38 points in regulation before ultimately falling in double OT last week.  Another road test for the Tigers this week but let's face it, the Wolfpack haven't won a big game since...Jim Valvano was running around searching for someone to hug.  And remember, this is a team that had Philip Rivers 20 years ago and Russell Wilson 10 years ago.  Rivers lost in triple OT in the 'Shoe while Wilson transferred to that noted QB haven *checks notes*  Wisconsin??  Yikes.  The Tigers may well slip up somewhere, but it won't be here, hurricane or not.  Clem: 20--NCSU: 13

Kentucky Wildcats @ Ole Miss Rebels

Draper: Is Kentucky for real? in football???? They do sport the best player on the field in Will Levis, but Ole Kiffikins has the Rebs undefeated after games against paper bags.  The Kentucky win over Florida is by far the best resume builder on either roster, but road wins in the SEC are really tough (unless you're Bama).  Now, it needs to be noted that the Wildcats took down the Mighty Gators in the Swamp, but do they have 2 big road wins in them?  Kiffin challenged the crowd in a press conference this week, but even with UK in the top 10....it's still UK.  Regardless, I'm going to stick with some regression to the mean and deviate from my peers.  The Rebels and USC transfer Jaxson Dart cement the SEC West dominance over the 2nd/3rd best SEC East team with a win.  UK: 27--Miss: 30
Hoying: You think these teams were looking forward a bit to this game? Each of them squandered double-digit leads against questionable competition last week to win by a single score each. Kentucky survived due to the play of their QB, while Ole Miss prevailed despite the state of their passing game. We've come a long way since Matt Corral. This year's Rebels rely more on the rushing game; they're the nation's only team with two RBs with 300 yards each (other than our own Pop and Chop). UK didn't really let Florida do anything against them in their single marquee matchup this season, but it's not like the the Wildcats are moving the ball with aplomb either, and that's bad news against an especially stingy Rebel defense. Nevertheless, the Cats' big game experience and star QB power are enough to snag a rare road win against the SEC West. UK: 27--Miss: 24
Schweinfurth: Kentucky is battle tested so far, pulling of the big win at Florida in week 2. Ole Miss really hasn't played anyone to this point. Kentucky can win comfortably if Will Levis can limit the turnovers. And one thing you don't hear about is the Ole Miss D. UK: 35--Ole Miss: 24
Seeberg:    For the first month of the season, the Runnin' Rebs schedule has rivaled that of Michigan.  That's to say it's awful.  An 8-point win over Tulsa is their closest bout to date.  I'm not convinced either of these teams is a contender, but I do know the Wildcats have by far the best win of either team.  Kiffin might try to outscheme Stoops, but his disciplined D should do just enough to escape with a for-the-moment good road win.  UK: 34--Miss: 27

Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: Schiano has started a little resurgence in the Scarlet Knights to the great 2006 team. Unfortunately....they're not close.  It's hard to write a snipper about a game in which I don't expect anything surprising to happen.  Complacency is the enemy here (and it is real), but I can't envision enough of a letdown for this to swing to Buttgers.  This is a great opportunity for the defense to continue to work the young corners into the rotation and for CJ to continue to pad some numbers with a big 1st half.  Bucks score early and often and Rutgers.....doesn't.  RU: 10--OSU: 63
Hoying: I don't really have anything interesting to say about this game. Rutgers just got blown out by a team without a working offense, and the Buckeyes are working their way into 2019 form. Name your score. And it's not going to get much better going forward. The Buckeye schedule seems to have two real teams (Penn State and TTUN), three possibly OK teams (Iowa, Michigan State, and Maryland), and three candidates for MAC relegation (Indiana, Northwestern, and the team at hand). In seasons like this, you're not happy unless you blow out every team in the latter two sets. You're happy with any win over the big boys, but it's going to be another month until the Bucks get a chance to make State College, PA unhappy. Whom are the Buckeyes playing this week again? Oh yeah, Buckeyes by a million. RU: 3--OSU: 59
Schweinfurth: Ahh, time for the annual Rutgers sacrifice. This game is routinely out of hand early and never very close. While Greg Schiano has brought back the swagger he had on his first stint, he is still punching up about 3 weight classes here. This is set up for Stroud to start off something like 10 for 10 passing and Miyan and TreVeyon going for 100 yards each again. Watch out for the kitchen sink play calling by Rutgers, but that's a known quantity now. Bucks win easily. Just stay healthy. RU: 13--OSU: 56
Seeberg:  Barring injury or the Buckeyes beating themselves with penalties and turnovers, there's just no stopping the offense this year.  Remember, the best WR in the country has been absent nearly the entire year- and he won't be needed for this one either.  The Knights may regain some semblance of credibility under Schiano again, but the only scarlet that matters in this matchup is the scarlet and gray.  Stay in rhythm, stay healthy, and keep hanging half a hundred on conference foes.  RU: 17--OSU: 59

Upset Special
Draper: Texas Tech over Kansas State
Hoying: Purdue over Minnesota
Schweinfurth: Iowa over Michigan
Seeberg:  Oregon State over Utah