Week 11: THE WHOLE STATE

Standings:

1.) Draper 38-13 (1-9 upset)
1.) Schweinfurth 38-13 (1-9 upset)
3.) Seeberg 35-16 (3-7 upset)
4.) Hoying 34-17 (2-8 upset)

Both Big Ten teams from That State Up North are on the road today, each with its scumbag coach left in the dust (at least on gameday (maybe)). And who are we to judge which one brought more disgrace to his program? Actually, wait, it's Mel Tucker, like, by a lot. But what's been happening east of East Lansing has been way funnier and sent a much more deserving fanbase into a death spiral of total denial, desperate blamecasting, and overall meltdown mode going on three weeks now. Who knows what fever pitch it will reach if their beloved Cheat Weasels actually drop a game?

Michigan Wolverines @ Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions

Draper: Short posts from me as I'm facing down COVID Round 2.  This game is being billed as the meeting of the powers of the B1G, but, while this is UM's first real game, I don't expect it to be the barnburner everyone else thinks.  Being in Happy Valley is a huge plus for PSU, but their skill players simply aren't up to snuff.  Drew Allar ain't it and the other pieces on offense shouldn't overwhelm the Wolverine defense.  The PSU defense will frustrate the UM offense, but it won't be enough.  JJ McCarthy make some key plays and UM goes 1-0 in the 2 game season.  On a side note, I feel the suspension of Jim Harbaugh will galvanize this team rather than punish it.  Harbaugh will be far more effective as a martyr than a sideline general.  I'm just enjoying the insanity circling the program. UM: 23--PSU:13
Hoying: Remember all the talk through last season and into, oh, mid-October of this season about how 2023 was finally going to be Penn State's year? I remember when Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton were being held up as the anchors of the next elite running back unit in the Big Ten, even though Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards carved up the PSU defense just last season for 339 yards, and neither Michigan RB went anywhere over the last 12 months. At least, I think they didn't, although Blake doesn't seem to have his pop from last year. Perhaps too much tread was worn off the tires last season when he had to carry the entire offense on his back. Or perhaps the pressures of co-owning a vacuum repair business have proved too much for him this season. And Edwards just flat-out stinks this year. JJ McCarthy has looked the part, following up a sneaky-good 2022 campaign with a masterful effort this season, but the Wolverines haven't really needed him to be great so far. McCarthy has attempted all of 9 4th-quarter passes this season, not a one when the game was still in doubt. Penn State is good enough to stifle Michigan's nerfed ground game this year if they have a mind to; the outcome of this game will track whether JJ can produce under pressure. And whether Penn State can get anything going against what might be the nation's top defense. We've already seen them turn in a 15-straight-missed-3rd-downs clunker in Ohio Stadium; Michigan will be more than satisfied to win this game 6-3 and leap out of the frying pan. I look at this game and I see two very good teams, the one being slightly better at everything the other excels at. That should be enough to overcome home field advantage. Sadly, we won't get White Out levels of discomfort for JJ in this one. UM: 20--PSU: 10

Schweinfurth: I was hyped for this one in the preseason. Penn State finally had a quarterback to go along with a stout defense. Then the Ohio State game happened and Drew Allar was totally out of his element. The third and fourth quarters had some of the worst QB play I've seen since Joe Bauserman was throwing Bauserboms all over Lincoln. That's a bit troubling. Especially when you consider the Wolverines have found a rallying cry (even if it seems self serving to ask "why us"). I'm not going to dive too deep into the Harbooger stuff, other than to say it should be interesting to see what they look like without having precognition of the other team's play calls. Ultimately, Michigan wins because they have the better QB. I do think the cracks start to show, however. UM: 17--PSU:14

Seeberg:  Here we are again folks, it's "Is This The Year James Franklin FINALLY beats UM/OSU" part II.  Sadly, despite the absolute mind-boggling hilarity of the sh_tstorm ensuing in that state up north, the answer will still be "no".  Why?  Because it's James Franklin.  A man who coaches big games with the bemused, aloof demeanor usually reserved for CEO's wives in luxury boxes wondering why yellow handkerchiefs are tossed so disdainfully on the ground and not in the pockets of suits.  He acts consistently as if he literally has no say in the outcome- and given the nonexistent adjustments, coaches like it too.  No white out this time to help either.  Sorry, Buckeye Nation, the cheatin' train keeps rolling. UM: 20--PSU: 13

Mississippi Rebels @ Georgia Bulldogs

Draper: UGA has looked vulnerable against the <checks notes> 1 currently ranked team on the schedule.  It's hard to pick against the dogs against a Lane Kiffin squad that fails in every big spot.  I actually think there's a decent upset possibility here, but between the hedges should tilt this in favor of the Dawgs.   Miss: 24--UGA: 27
Hoying: Everything I said about Georgia last week applies equally here, with the possible caveat that they may be a bit fatigued after a 4-quarter battle with Missouri. You're still not going to beat them without a great running game, and Ole Miss's is...fine. Better than Missouri's, at least, and the Tigers had the puck on the stick with a chance to take the lead late before a masterful big man interception. Of course, that was also due in part to a great defensive performance by Mizzou, helped in part by the Dawgs missing star TE Brock Bowers for the second straight week. With Bowers likely out this weekend as well, the door is open for the Rebs to grab a rare marquee win, but their defense always seems to let them down in against opponents of the Dawgs' caliber. Lane's usually good for 9-10 wins a year but he crumbles in the biggest games (accordingly, watch out for the Rebel-vanquished LSU to faceplant down the stretch). Much like the game above, pick the coach that actually wins these. Miss: 24--UGA: 31

Schweinfurth: Georgia has looked anything but like the world beaters everyone claims they are. Yes, injuries and title hangovers happen, but they are still a juggernaut. Ole Miss put a pretty good scare in to Bama, and they could again. This is the one game that could knock Georgia down a peg...but it won't happen. Miss: 21--UGA: 35

Seeberg:  This could be a fun one.  Mizzou hung with UGA last week; however, Mizzou is constructed much differently, with a solid D and passable offense.  Never the case with a Lane Kiffin squad.  The Rebels can score it, but I don't expect them to get enough stops to stay in it for four quarters.  Bulldogs pull away late.  Miss: 27--UGA: 38

Utah Utes @ Washington Huskies

Draper: Utah loves these type of games in which no one gives them a chance.  Washington found super success on the ground vs. the hapless Trojan D, but Utah will provide a stiffer test.  Penix needs to return to his earlier season form to run them out of the building.  Utah will hang around, but they just don't have the offense to get it done.  Utah: 17--UW: 27
Hoying: Offense, meet defense. Except Washington also has a defense. And Oregon, the team most similar to Washington, already faced Utah a couple weeks ago and the Duck offense didn't even pause to take a breath before running the Utes up and down the field. The Husky defense didn't look terrific last week against USC, but facing Caleb Williams is a bit different from Utah's anemic passing attack. This shouldn't be close. Utah: 17--UW: 34

Schweinfurth: I'll make this quick. Utah is scrappy, but they just don't have the offensive fire power. To me, the only hope the Utes have here is if the Huskies have a let down from the USC game. Utah: 13--UW: 42

Seeberg:  As the other Steven has put it, this one is likely to look a lot like Oregon against the Utes.  I would argue Oregon's D is maybe a touch better, but regardless, the Utes just can't move the ball much against a competent D, which the Huskies certainly possess.  Honestly the 34 points the Utes scored against USC was stronger grounds for Alex Grinch's firing than 52 to Washington.  Either way, Penix and Co. win comfortably. Utah: 10--UW: 31

Tennessee Volunteers @ Missouri Tigers

Draper: No clue what to do with these SEC East also-rans.  Tennessee hasn't looked the part this year and Mizzou has been a fun little engine that could.  I'll lean on the home side in the coin flips, but the Tigers laid it on the line coming up short against the Dawgs last week.  Bobby Hill takes another L for the Vols.  UT: 21--Mizz: 24
Hoying: Tennessee is ranked ahead of Missouri by the College Football Playoff Committee. Tennessee is favored to win this game on the road. I do not understand why. As stated above, Missouri lost a close matchup to Georgia last week, but that's as acceptable loss as you can cook up. Tennessee was dominated by the terrible Florida Gators back in September, and since then, they haven't accomplished anything the Tigers haven't. The Vols have a potent ground game, but so does Georgia, and Missouri was able to do an acceptable job bottling them up last week. I can see this one being a heartbreaker that goes down to the wire, but the memo has gone out: you're last year's feel-good story, Tennessee. Make way for the new team of (near-)destiny. UT: 20--Mizz: 24

Schweinfurth: Missouri has been sneaky good this year. Tennessee still has several question marks on defense and the Joe Milton led offense can be stopped. This isn't 2022 anymore for the Vols. UT: 14--Mizz: 31

Seeberg:  Are either of these teams good?  Both of them looked like it for a half against the elite of the SEC before eventually losing by 2 scores.  Then again, Mizzou gave up nearly half a hundred to LSU and Tennessee lost to the Gators.  Whether either squad is legitimately good is still up for debate in November.  The Vols are mistake-prone on offense, but the TIgers have forced only 8 turnovers all season.  Joe Milton does just enough (I swear someone needs to do a show on Big 10 castoff QBs leading SEC squads) to get the win on the road.  UT: 27--Mizz: 23

Michigan State Spartans @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper:  MSU is done....D-U-N. DONE.  They will be a nothing-burger for years after the latest set of scandals.  This is not the spot for MSU to rise from the ashes.  I can't imagine a way this game is close without OSU completely folding.  It would be nice to get Cade back on the field (why was he out last week?), but this should be business as usual for the Scarlet and Gray.  If there's anything for OSU to focus on, it would be on starting sharper.  First halves have been sloppy for the offense.  The next two weeks should focus on getting McCord back in a groove, feeding Marv and Trey, and staying healthy.  The defense will be thinking shutout, but that's a lot to ask.  Eh, why not.  MSU: 0--OSU: 45
Hoying: Ah, good to see CJ Stroud's favorite shooting gallery again. Time and change will surely show how MSU is once again horribly overmatched in this game. Only this year, it's because of their abysmal offense; the days of the nation's worst secondary sporting green and white are long gone. No, that doesn't mean that this game is going to look like the 2015 slugfest (still the last time Ohio State lost in this series). I expect it to look more like the Buckeyes' games over the last two weeks, other than the fact that it's at home and the Spartan offense is nowhere near as competent as either Rutgers' or Wisconsin's. It's tempting to think that the Ohio State passing game has regressed a bit the past couple weeks while the running game is finally getting its mojo back, but I think this is more a result of the defenses they've faced picking their poison in these matchups. Rutgers was doing everything they could to keep everything in front of them, which worked well until the Buckeyes figured that dumping off to Tre every play was just as good as having an elite running game, only even better because now you're getting free chances to get your speedy shifty back out in space. MSU is a bit better at stopping the run, so it may be up to McCord to do his best to replicate the air raid that CJ rained down the last two years (and the 50 yard TD he ripped off the year before that). Just don't force it; the defense really doesn't need that much help this week. On to OSU's third hapless Big Ten West opponent next week. MSU: 3--OSU: 38

Schweinfurth: Guys, the Spartans are bad. I mean, really bad. That's enough about them. This is a huge get right game for the Buckeye offense. McCord needs to get into a rhythm again and stop forcing balls. Henderson has his burst back but this is about the passing game. Hyper-targeting Marv is acceptable in this game and I'm here for the stat accumulation. Hopefully Egbuka and Farmer Gronk are back. I really want to see a fully loaded Buckeye offense execute the next two games and show everyone that this offense still has it. I believe it's there. To this point, the wins have looked pretty meh on the offensive side, and that's fine. But now, a fully armed and operational battle station is being built. And it is building toward the doom of the state up north. MSU: 6--OSU: 45 
Seeberg:  Rant time.  MAN I'm tired of all these "he's available, he's not available" conversations every week.  I just have no clue who's playing week in and week out, which I'm sure is the point.  Still frustrating.  Regardless, the Bucks shouldn't need to be at full strength to win this one.  The Spartans were the biggest dumpster fire in that state up north until a couple weeks ago.  That program may have permanently peaked with Dantonio.  Meanwhile, for some reason we only targeted Marvin Harrison 5 times last week (albeit two for touchdowns).  He would literally be a legit #1 WR on a majority of NFL teams right now.  Let's make sure Cade and Emeka are OK, keep feeding a healthy Treveyon for balance, and start finding a good rhythm now that we're in the money month of college football. MSU: 10--OSU: 38

Upset Special
Draper: West Virginia over Oklahoma
Hoying: Florida over LSU
Schweinfurth: Colorado over Arizona
Seeberg: Stanford over Oregon State

Week 10: Battle of the Buckeye Coordinators

Standings:

1.) Draper 33-12 (1-8 upset)
1.) Schweinfurth 33-12 (1-8 upset)
3.) Hoying 31-14 (2-7 upset)
4.) Seeberg 30-15 (3-6 upset)

One consequence to Urban building his entire Ohio State staff out of past and future head coaches is that you start seeing former Buckeyes everywhere. The opponent of the week is the architect of two terrific (and one terrible) Buckeye defenses, and the sine qua non of a successful Rutgers season. Elsewhere, the top contenders in three of the other four Power 5 conferences (Florida State, you're excused until December) face opportunities to seize strangeholds on their respective conference races, or open the door to that sweet sweet November chaos.

Kansas State Wildcats @ Texas Longhorns

Draper: Kansas St. caught lighting in a bottle at the end of last year, but I’m not drinking the Kool-aid this year.  While UT has a weird QB merry go round with injuries, the talent disparity is too great.  Deuce Vaughn ain’t walking through that door.  Texas may not be all the way back, but I think they take care of business at DKR.  KSU: 17—UT: 31
Hoying: Who would have thought that Kansas State's mid-September matchup against Missouri would turn out to be such a clash of conference heavyweights? That one was decided by a last second 61-yard field goal, which I don't see happening this week as Texas's kicker hasn't converted from beyond 50 yet this year (no Dicker the Kicker to save you this time). This is the week that we find out if Texas is truly back or if Quinn Ewers has been papering over a thin team that can't handle adversity. The Longhorns darn near let Oklahoma beat them twice as they barely pulled out of a nosedive against Houston the following week. The same Houston that KSU just obliterated seven days ago. With Ewers still out with a bum shoulder, it'll be up to freshman QB Maalik Murphy to command the UT offense, and while BYU posed no threat to his coming out party last week, that was BYU. K-State is the reigning Big 12 champs, and they're not about to let one of the SEC turncoats steal the last Power 5 crown the league has to offer. The Wildcats put Texas's red zone woes on full display as they inch closer to a title defense. KSU: 28--UT: 23

Schweinfurth: While I'm not fully sold on Texas, I really haven't even paid much attention to K-State. That's usually what happens when the Wildcats rise up and pull a wild upset. Texas is a solid team an the more talented team here. They should win this going away. KSU: 21--UT: 35

Seeberg:  At first glance this one could get interesting.  Kansas State is, well, Kansas State.  Beating all the teams they should and with 2 losses to ranked teams by a combined 11 points.  Texas is likely still running out backup QB Maalik Murphy- but he's looked so good he has some wondering if the prodigal son Manning will hit the portal.  The Wildcats just don't have enough juice to hang in this one for four quarters.  Longhorns pull away late.  KSU: 20--UT: 31

Missouri Tigers @ Georgia Bulldogs

Draper: Could this be the game in which the UGA dominance in the SEC East comes to a screeching halt? Of course not.  Missouri is a shell and their record isn’t indicative of their quality.  They almost snake bit the Dawgs last year in Columbia, but how could Kirby’s boys not step up after the DISRESPEKT from the committee?  No one believed the underdog 2x National Camps could beat a HIGHLY overrated Tiger team between the hedges, but they just needed to prove the world wrong.  (Editor’s note: literally, no one thinks this).  Mizzou: 10–UGA: 40
Hoying: A month or so ago I wondered when Georgia was going to wake up and start taking this season seriously. The answer was "right then" as they steamrolled Kentucky and haven't looked back since. I may have also said that Kentucky might have been the best team left on Georgia's regular season schedule, which looks like weapons-grade stupidity at this point. Georgia now kicks off a three game slate of ranked opponents, any of which is good enough to take down the Dawgs on any given day, but which also provide a path for Georgia to vault to #1 in the Playoff rankings with wins over all three (until The Game, that is). Missouri is the first up, a team with a great underrated QB in Brady Cook buy not much run game to speak of. That hasn't limited the Tigers much so far (other than dooming them with a late pick six against LSU) but Georgia's vulnerability is on the ground, not through the air. Cook has been a difference maker on the ground as well in Mizzou's last two wins but I think he'll find the Georgia D a bit beyond his skill to solve. Georgia's not invincible but they aren't stumbling this week. Mizzou: 17--UGA: 34

Schweinfurth: Missouri is having a very nice season. Could I see them pulling the upset, eh not really. While there isn't a great team in college football this year, Georgia sure feels like one of the top 4. I feel like Mizzou is just a rung below. Time to start propping up that "SEC resume." Mizzou: 17--UGA: 42
Seeberg:  The worst part about this matchup is that after the Bulldogs win, Missouri will still be ranked and it will be a quality win even when Missouri loses again, inevitably, and falls from the rankings entirely *heavy sigh*.  UGA cruises.  Mizzou: 17--UGA: 34

Oklahoma Sooners @ Oklahoma State Cowboys

Draper: I’ll miss Bedlam when the dust settles.  The Pokes have quietly rebounded from a horrendous start to face their rival in a game for the inside track to the Big 12 title game (featuring Nelly……Nelly), but even the confines of Stillwater won’t be enough to crack the Sooners.  I’d guess the environment will be insane as the Cowboys look to have the door smack the Sooners on the way out, but Dillon Gabriel will be too much to overcome.  BOOMER! OU:34–OkSt: 24
Hoying: So I know that after Oklahoma's loss to Kansas last week there's about 13 teams tied for the Big 12 lead, and technically Oklahoma State is one of them. But the stink of losing to South Alabama (USA! USA!) by twenty-six doesn't wash off quickly. This is a team with serious problems behind center, especially compared against what could be Heisman dark horse candidate Dillon Gabriel taking snaps for the Sooners. Do the Cowboys at least have a defensive advantage to offset their deficiencies with the ball in their hands? Nope, OU has them outclassed in every sense on the other side of the ball as well. I'm sure that Okie State would be glad to get one last laugh over big brother before another wave of mediocre teams arrives to replace them, but there's just no advantage to press here. OU: 31--OkSt: 20

Schweinfurth: Is this the final Bedlam game ever? Man, I sure hope not. This has been one of the better rivalry games for the recent past. Oklahoma reeling after that huge upset last week throws another wrench into this game. My guess would be that Ok State jumps out early, but can't hold on late. That was a once in a generation loss for the Sooners and they're feeling it for sure. The Sooners win, but the Cowboys get a pound of flesh. OU: 35--OkSt: 31

Seeberg:  Every year the CFP ranks a team their first week that, even after having the benefit of a full 2/3 of the season, you have to scratch your head.  This year that would be the 6-2 Oklahoma State Cowboys.  Best wins?  One-possession wins over both Kansas teams.  Oh, yeah, and a 33-7 loss to South Alabama who is 4-5 and one directional away from being the SCLSU Muddogs.  The Sooners played with fire several times this year and finally got got, but in this (hopefully not!) last edition of Bedlam, they'll wake up and leave their mark.  OU: 38--OkSt: 27

Washington Huskies @ Southern California Trojans

Draper: This game looked to be a dud when USC was clearly crashing and burning, but UW has matched the Trojans in style over the last few weeks.  Pen is hasn’t been up to snuff after the injury in the Oregon game, but USC has just looked awful.  I still believe that Caleb Williams is an all-world talent, but he’s playing for next year (i.e., don’t die).  The Huskies still have it all in front of them.  While I could envision an upset if SC puts it together and wins a shootout, I’ll play the probabilities and lean the purple and gold.  Closer than the experts think.  UW: 34-–USC: 31
Hoying: Is Washington OK? It's easy to look at this matchup and notice that USC hasn't put 4 quarters of good football together since walloping Stanford the same day of the Jim Tressel Bowl in Columbus, buuut that Stanford team? They were trailing the Huskies by 2 points with 2 minutes left to go last week. And the week before that, it took a red zone pick-six for UW to get past awful Arizona State. I'm still not convinced the Huskies are the best team in the Pac-12; in fact, every week cements my belief that they're still not as good as Oregon. That being said, you don't need to be at your absolute best to get by USC, although you do need to be on your game in the 4th quarter, as that was where Arizona and Cal saw potential huge upsets slip away. Unfortunately for the Trojans, that's the money quarter for UW as well. There's plenty of time to slip up on the upcoming stretch run for Washington; this won't be the week. UW: 42--USC: 35

Schweinfurth: This one feels odd. Washington looks the part while USC can't stop anything. Outside of one game, Penix has played extremely well. The USC defense is just...I can't even describe how bad it is. It's not gonna be close. UW: 49--USC: 21
Seeberg:  If ever you needed proof that brands matter, look no further than USC.  With an atrocious defense, two losses and their best win a 2-point squeaker over 5-3 Arizona, and they sit at 20th in the CFP poll.  Outlandish.  Thankfully, that will no longer be an issue because the former Heisman winner has no defense to back him up, and quite possibly the future Heisman winner (former IU quarterback!  That's still hilarious to me) can sling it.  No chance USC gets enough stops to stay in this one.  Huskies roll. UW: 45--USC: 26  

Louisiana State Tigers @ Alabama Crimson Tide

Draper: Don’t look now, but the terrible, horrible, no-good, very-bad Alabama team…is one of about 6 teams that controls their destiny for the CFP. LSU has the hype that just never came to fruition this year, but Daniels has been very good directing the Tiger offense.  Bama is clearly #2 under center in this game, but they are (as usual) better at pretty much every other positions.  LSU feels like a team that could get it done, but every time we say it, the Tide Roll.  Therefore, <say the line>….roll tide…. LSU: 27–-Bama: 30
Hoying: You want to know why name isn't at the top of the standings kicking off each weekly post? Because I'm the sap that keeps picking Alabama to lose games. Ole Miss, Texas A&M, clearly I'm not learning my lesson about the inevitability of Nick Saban. But heaven help me, it's time to dive into that snake pit again. This game is strength on strength and struggle on struggle as arguably the nation's best defense in the Tide attempts to slow what is less arguably the nation's best offense behind Jayden Daniels. But when the possession changes, get ready to watch Jaylen Milroe try to get anything cooking against what might as well be air. This is the bizarro version of last year's Bama that couldn't quite keep up with an LSU attack that was gashing them repeatedly on the ground. But the Tigers might be even better this year with the ball and Alabama has been vulnerable week to week during the first half. The danger for LSU is that Bama lives or dies on the big plays and the Tigers are seemingly incapable of doing anything to keep the offense in front of them. That being said, way back in September, just when it seemed like the Crimson Death Star was surging back to seize another marquee nonconference win, Quinn Ewers and Texas exploded for three fourth-quarter TDs to salt the game away. Look for LSU to get punched in the mouth but refuse to heed the bell. LSU: 35--Bama: 31

Schweinfurth: This game, like in past years, will most likely decide the SEC West. This Bama team feels like a step below what they have been lately. Then again, so does LSU under Brian Kelly. The Tide has finally found something in Jalen Milroe and the Bama defense is still pretty good. Yes, LSU has Jayden Daniels, but again, they have Brian Kelly. I’ll take the Tide in a close one. LSU: 17—Bama: 21
Seeberg:  Quite possibly the game of the week in Tuscaloosa.  I keep hearing a lot of Jayden Daniels Heisman chatter, which I find weird given the two losses already, and one in which he didn't look too good (FSU).  This game could make those conversations legitimate if he can run and throw it on the Tide.  Bama looked shockingly competent on offense in the second half against Tennessee.  It may have been an aberration, but I do know that Nick Saban had an extra week of prep for this one.  The offense should be primed and the defense will use that Heisman talk as motivation.  Bama wins an entertaining one.  LSU: 27--Bama: 34

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Draper: The Buckeyes enter SHI stadium to see if they can duplicate TTUN’s best win (look it up!).  However, don’t be fooled: Rutgers is…not terrible.  The Buckeyes are the clear favorites and have talent disparities everywhere, but the Knights are a team that’s like the Purdue teams of old….just get lucky and maybe.  Schwann will throw a curve here or there, but it won’t be enough.  McCord will bounce back after a pretty bad game in Madison and get things going early.  The Piscataway faithful won’t set the earth on fire and the Scarlet and Gray will outweigh the Scarlet and,…black?  Marv gets his hundo and TD and TreVeyon continues his explosion from last week by cashing in 2x.  I’d like to see Egbuka get back into shape and the defense stay on target.  Bucks! OSU: 38—RU: 16    
Hoying: For what seems like the millionth time since the Maryland game, the Buckeyes face a team that can't move the ball, especially through the air. Which means that this is a guaranteed W unless the mistakes just start cascading from behind center. Even two picks last week were only enough to pull Wisconsin within two scores at home. Rutgers might have an even better defense than the Badgers but they are a total shambles at quarterback. You thought McCord struggled against Wisconsin? The Rutgers passing attack put up a ghastly 5.5 yards per attempt while getting wrecked by the Badgers, with a pick-six to boot. Losing Lathan Ransom is less than ideal but next-man-up Sonny Styles and the rest of the Buckeye secondary should feast against Rutgers QB Gavin Wimsatt and co. Of course, you have to score points to win, and as it turns out Rutgers also has a pretty bad run defense. It's time to see whether the shot in the arm that a healthy Tre gave to the ground game is here to stay or just a nice present from Fick last week. I'm betting on the Buckeye O getting their groove back notwithstanding Schiano's bag of tricks and treats off the bye week. On to the home cupcakes and then................. OSU: 31--RSUNJ: 10

Schweinfurth: I feel like there is still some bad blood after Jesse Mirco made the unilateral decision to fake a punt in a blowout. Schiano was understandably upset. I get it. You’re tired of getting your butt kicked every year. Good news for our old friend Greg, he actually has a decent team this year. I mean, they’re already bowl eligible. Bad news for the Scarlet Nights, the Silver Bullets have been crushing teams this year. Add in the Routeman Marv factor and this feels like it’s still a mismatch. Rutgers will pull out all the trick plays they can, but it won’t be enough. Bucks win, but it may be close into the 3rd quarter. OSU: 35—RU: 10
Seeberg:  Well, like I predicted, things got weird in Mad-town last week.  McCord struggled mightily (that whole "I throw of my back foot if I even kinda feel pressure" thing finally caught up to him), but hey, we have a run game again!  Thanks Treveyon.  Meanwhile, Rutgers is...competent??  Better than Virginia Tech??  Bowl eligible before November???  Somehow, all of these statements are accurate.  Schiano is maximizing that Knights' roster, and we all know he will pull out all the stops against opponents like the Buckeyes.  Still, Emeka may be good to go, and Marvin Harrison Jr. is simply a cheat code.  Hopefully there's no dust ups about a fake punt again.  Stay healthy and get out of Piscataway with some rhythm for Kyle and a solid W.  RU: 13--OSU: 31

Upset Special
Draper: Virginia Tech over Louisville
Hoying: Colorado over Oregon State
Schweinfurth: Iowa State over Kansas
Seeberg: Maryland over Penn State

Week 9: Battle of the Buckeye Coaches

Standings:

1.) Draper 30-11 (1-7 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 29-12 (1-7 upset)
3.) Seeberg 28-13 (2-6 upset)
4.) Hoying 27-14 (2-6 upset)

As the ranks of the undefeated continue to dwindle, the top teams find themselves outside the realm of marquee matchups for the most part this week. Particularly one team deep in the championship hunt, with nothing to do but sit and stew for another seven days, which may or may not be to their benefit... 

Oregon Ducks @ Utah Utes

Draper: Utah has that Jesse Pinkman approach of continuing to win when they really have no right to. The difference between USC and Oregon is that the Ducks have a functioning Oline and a Grinchless defense.  Rice Eccles Stadium is a tough place to play, but I'd argue that Washington's stadium is tougher and the Ducks were a missed FG away from victory against a legit top 10 team offense.  This seems like a bad bet, but I'm going to keep fading Kyle Whittingham's squad.  I don't think they can keep up.  Ore: 30--Utah: 17
Hoying: There may be only one top dog in the Pac-12 right now, but all the rewards are still on the table for these two usual conference standard-bearers. Lost in the sauce of the dramatic UW win over the Ducks was the fact that Oregon outplayed them for most of the afternoon and was one 4^th-and-short conversion away from salting the game away. Oregon continues to operate at a high level week to week, while their opponent this week somehow always manages to make it look hard, even when scoring a big road upset against USC last week. Yes, they managed to hit the 34 point mark for the second week in a row, but that was against a horrible Trojan defense. I think I’d rather have 10 of Notre Dame’s players on the field than 11 of USC’s. Weird things happen in the mountains but Oregon gets the stops it needs and refuses to slow down. Ore: 27—Utah: 20

Schweinfurth: This is the game that Utah typically rises up and ruins the season of a PAC-12 national championship contender. Here’s the issue, Utah isn’t the same as we’ve seen the last few years. Cam Rising was just declared out for the year and the QB play hasn’t been the same without him. Oregon seems very well rounded this year, and they have BoNix. I really don’t think the Utes have the firepower to upset the Ducks this year. Ore: 38—Utah: 28
Seeberg:  Well the Utes proved me wrong again, summoning an offense from nowhere to outlast USC last week.  Of course, summoning an offense against whatever the Trojans roll out on defense every week is pretty easy by comparison.  The Ducks, however, are a more complete team particularly in the trenches on both sides of the ball, and points won't be as easy to come by now that Cam Rising has officially been shut down for the season.  A 1-loss PAC-12 team is a likely playoff participant this year and Bo Nix and Co. know it.  Ducks pull away late.  Ore: 31--Utah: 20

Duke Blue Devils @ Louisville Cardinals

Draper: College football is weird.  Duke is up on cloud nine and falls just short of a huge Notre Dame upset.  They push FSU in the first half at homecoming no less then get blown out once Riley Leonard leaves.  The Cardinals dominate the Irish then faceplant against a bad Pitt team.  I love what Mike Elko has done in Durham.  This team showed no fear in Tallahassee and was actually in control before the injury. I'm going out on a limb in saying that Duke MIGHT be the 2nd or 3rd best team in the ACC.  With Riley Leonard, they're a threat to anyone.  Without, they could be dangerous with a stout defense.  I'm going to roll with DA DUKIES BABY.  Duke: 20--UL: 17
Hoying: Ah yes, another “& Friends” installment of the ongoing “Florida State & Friends” season unrolling to the east. There must be a dearth of worthy teams out there because both of these manage to continue to be ranked for some reason. As predicted last week, Duke was burnt toast the second Riley Leonard left the game, even though the Blue Devils had the lead and the ball at that point. They didn’t score again, and I’m not sure if they will this week either after seeing how Louisville bullied the otherwise competent Notre Dame ground game a couple of weeks ago. Either the Pitt game the following week was a letdown the size of the inevitable fizzle at the end of the Connor Stalions investigation (brace yourselves, you know nothing is going to happen), or the ACC is just impossible to predict below the top team. I’m still not sold on Louisville but Duke is done until I see any signs of life behind center. Duke: 6—UL: 24

Schweinfurth: Duke hasn’t looked the same since the loss to Notre Dame. Granted, losing your QB tends to do that to a team. Louisville has looked very good this year. Jeff Brohm seems to know how to get the best out of his teams. Duke is a great story, but Louisville looks like one of the top ACC teams. Duke: 21—UL: 35
Seeberg:  On this week's edition of "are we sure this isn't a basketball blog?" is Duke vs. Louisville as a ranked matchup.  Quite frankly I don't trust either of these teams much.  Remember, Louisville lost to Pitt and only managed a 1-score win against the lowly Hoosiers.  Of the four primary units in this game I trust Duke's D most, and good defense travels.  Blue Devils pour more dirt on the ACC's feeble playoff hopes.  Duke: 24--UL: 17

Tennessee Volunteers @ Kentucky Wildcats

Draper: Man....I just don't care.  Tennessee is still talking about last year's victory over Bama with...nothing else to care about since.  Kentucky is.....Kentucky.   This is a tough game to get excited for.  Joe Milton has his moments slinging the rock, but this is simply another midlevel SEC East game (translation: who cares).  Vols have better talent although it's closer than in the past.  Vols take down the Cats in Lexington.  UT: 28--UK: 20
Hoying: Speaking of blue-clad basketball blue bloods, Kentucky is still hanging out near the bottom of the top 25, and that win over Florida just looks better every week. That’s the same Florida, you may recall, that knocked off Tennessee back in September. Like every team Alabama plays, the Vols looked great last week in the first half against Alabama until the Saban effect kicked in and the Tide mechanically ground out another 27 points to UT’s zero. Of course, that’s arguably better than getting blown out at home by Missouri like UK did last week. The September triangle of Kentucky > Florida > Tennessee sure feels like a long time ago, and even with one of Tennessee’s top CB’s, Kamal Hadden, out for the season, a strong UT running game will be more than the ‘Cats can handle or counter. UT: 24—UK: 20

Schweinfurth: Don’t look now, but the Vols have found a running game. Joe Milton, he of the bionic arm, is running the ball and torching defenses. Kentucky has played well, but Georgia busted that bubble hard. The Vols are playing a bit better defense, and it may be enough with Tennessee’s offense. They really just need one stop. UT: 45—UK: 42
Seeberg:  SERIOUSLY, are we sure this isn't a basketball site?  Craziness.  Both teams are reeling a bit as the Vols try to figure out what happened in the 2nd half against 'Bama while the Wildcats have gone down in back-to-back weeks, albeit to UGA and an improved Missouri team.  UK, at least, is coming off a bye and this game has a similar feel to the contest against the Gators a few weeks back:  conference rival coming to their place with a cast-off Big 10 QB at the helm.  Apologies to my master's alma mater, but the Wildcats right the ship.  UT: 24--UK: 31

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Wisconsin Badgers

Draper: I know Camp Randall can be a House of Horrors...but the Badgers just aren't very good.  While they could easily win the B1G West, that's just irrelevant.  There will be so much talk about Luke Fickell going up against the alma mater, but he's done it once before (and got destroyed).  There's really no reason to expect a surprise here unless the Buckeyes a) forget how to play on the road or b) feel they are unstoppable.  In response to a, I give you Notre Dame.  In response to b, I don't see the offense patting itself on the back after last week's win.  The team knows what's in front of them and no slipups can happen before TTUN.  I think Day will have the team focused.  The defense will crack early on a broken play, but the offense gets a semblance of the running game going as well as keeping multiple receivers involved.  Getting Egbuka back could take some pressure off Marv and open up more Cade Stover action as well.  Workmanlike win for the Bucks and we count the days.  OSU: 34--UW: 10
Hoying: Soooo, where is this team’s head right now? This week, I’ve read approximately 100 articles and forum threads about a certain team not playing in this game, to maybe 3 or 4 about Wisconsin. The coaches and players are saying the right things, but are they completely dialed in? You can bet the Badgers are: Luke Fickell knows a thing or two about this program and he’s itching for a chance to give a better performance than the 42-0 walloping his Bearcats earned back in 2019. I always have to check to confirm, but the two head coaches in this game were never on Ohio State’s staff at the same time; Fick had just departed to Cincinnati when Day was brought in to fix Tim Beck and Ed Warinner’s mess. One wonders if Fick would have turned down the UC job, if we would have a different head coach...Anyway, there’s actual non-hypothetical football this week, and like most Ohio State games this season (decade? millennium?) it’s a total mismatch. The Badgers had a nice comeback win against Bert and the Illini last week, but the week before, with all of their goals for the season still in front of them, they put up 6 points at home in a multiple score loss to Iowa. The nation’s joke team! And since then they’ve only lost their starting QB out of an offense that was already sputtering in its transition to a more open pass-first system under Fickell. This is a team with a very, very low ceiling, one that is no real threat to do any damage on offense against the resurgent Silver Bullets. Outside of a slew of turnovers or baffling decisions by McCord (Lincoln Kienholz time, baby!) this one should not be particularly close, but some message board rust and post-Penn State hangover stops this from being the laugher it could be. OSU: 27—UW: 10

Schweinfurth: In most years this game would terrify me. The Buckeyes have not won a game in Madison by more than 10 points since 2000. While that’s an interesting stat, the Bucks have owned Wisconsin since the B1G moved to East/West divisions. Another thing that allows me to breathe, the Badgers are injured. Tanner Mordecai is out and the offense is switching philosophies. The Buckeye defense is returning to their Silver Bullet roots. Last week was one of the most dominant performances I have seen in a long time. While this has the makings of a trap game, this Buckeye team seems to be building toward the end vs. peaking too early as they have the past two years. Just throw it up to Marv. OSU: 38—UW: 17
Seeberg:  Guys, don't look now, but the Badgers have this one at home and at night.  Weird stuff happens up there.  Not Purdue-level weird, but yikes-let's-just-get-the-hell-out-of-here-with-a-win weird.  Last three trips?  an L and two overtime Ws.  Granted, this isn't your older brother's Wisconsin squad, but that doesn't change the nailbiting history.  Wisconsin's QB situation (or lack thereof) does provide more confidence this go around, as does the supposed better bill of health for the Buckeye skill players (though let's be honest, every time Treveyon has "a great week of practice" I add a week or two to his time on the shelf).  I still expect this one to be competitive for a half or so, but the newly rechristened Silver Bullets should get a turnover or two to give the offense a short field.  Take care of the ball, take FGs when they are presented, and get Route Man Marv the ball please.  UW: 10--OSU: 27

Upset Special
Draper: Indiana over Penn State (#10 falls again!)
Hoying: BYU over Texas
Schweinfurth: Cal over USC
Seeberg: Kansas over Oklahoma

Week 8: Game of the Year - Part II of III

Standings:

1.) Draper 27-10 (1-6 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 26-11 (1-6 upset)
3.) Seeberg 25-12 (2-5 upset)
4.) Hoying 24-13 (1-6 upset)

It began with a trip to South Bend. It will end with a trek north to restore the natural order. And nestled snugly into the middle of the season is the Buckeyes' sole opportunity to show out under the scarlet crowd against an elite (or even a competent) opponent. The world revolves around Ohio State once again. Let's get to it.

Tennessee Volunteers @ Alabama Crimson Tide

Draper: After last year's epic back and forth battle, I just don't see this one living up to the hype (but I don't know how you top or match last year).  Both teams have major steps down at QB (and pretty much all offensive positions).  Tennessee though they had arrived but the Bobby Hill (Josh Heupel) train hasn't struck gold as expected.  Despite Milroe's lack of game changing ability, he's actually been fairly efficient at QB this year (2nd most efficient QB in the SEC I believe).  I don't trust Joe Milton's 'rocket' arm and being in Tuscaloosa spells R-O-L-L-T-I-D-E.  Tenn: 17--Bama: 30
Hoying: Last year, this game would have been the game to the year to date, as the Vols were sort of last year's version of Washington, and Bama was, as it seems, always Bama. Except Bama wasn't quite Bama last season: the run defense didn't work and the pass D crumbled against the better passing teams as well. This year, we're seeing more of an early-Saban Bama, as the defense is knocking on the door of elite while the offense sputters. Of course, Tennessee is nowhere near last year's juggernaut offense either (who could have foreseen that Joe Milton wasn't going to suddenly take a giant leap this offseason?) but they now have the defense that could have taken them to the promised land last year. I still stand by my pick of Texas A&M to trip up Alabama (not so much Ole Miss to do so) but Bama completed just enough clutch passes down the stretch to trip up the Aggies in College Station. I'm not sure they can do so again, even with Milroe much improved from where he was in the Texas game. Part of me still thinks the Tide are going to faceplant at least once more this season but I just don't see Tennessee scoring enough to make it happen this week. Order is restored to the Third Saturday in October. Tenn: 16--Bama: 21

Schweinfurth: The Volunteers  have look much different with Joe Milton spinning the ball. The offense has been very touch and go. Sometimes it looks smooth, and other times it looks like they can't get out of their own way. Bama has seemed very similar this year. The deference is that Milroe has started to look more comfortable. This isn't the dominant Bama we are used to, but they should still win this close. Tenn: 20--Bama: 23
Seeberg:  For 2023 at least, both of these teams fall into the "good-but-not-great" category.  Inconsistencies on offense have plagued both the Vols and Tide which, to be fair, was seen as pretty likely heading into this campaign after losing their primary signal callers (sound familiar Buckeye Nation?).  Regardless, the Bama D is still a notch or two above what the orange checkerboards are rolling out, and they should be able to turn Joe Milton over once or twice to get their starting-to-improve offense some extra possessions.  Hooker gave the Vols their moment of the decade in this rivalry last year, but things always revert to the mean over time.  Tide pull away late.  Tenn: 17--Bama: 30

 

Duke Blue Devils @ Florida State Seminoles

Draper: FSU has to avoid tripping up against a better than most think Duke squad.  Granted, Duke is on the radar after the Notre Dame near miss and the Clemson upset, but no Riley Leonard spells bad news for the Devils.  If Leonard plays, this could get interesting, but if not, Noles cruise.  I'd say the big games we've seen by Elko's squad this year will have the Noles awake and on notice.  Keep talkin.  Duke: 17--FSU: 27
Hoying: First things first, if Riley Leonard doesn't suit up for Duke, they are toasted. Yes, they won by 3 scores against NC State last week but that was behind the floppy arm of Henry Belin IV, who completed all of 4 of his 12 attempts, albeit with 2 going for TDs. But if it weren't for big plays, Duke would've had no offense at all, as their touchdowns came on a 69 yard pass on a busted coverage, an 83 yard run, and an 8 yard pass immediately following an interception return. The Noles, meanwhile, are humming right along, having just pounded a rapidly fading Syracuse (remember when they were supposed to beat Clemson?). If FSU can get past Duke, they have a nice 5-game regular season denouement into the ACC title game and a likely battle with North Carolina for one of the final 4-team Playoff spots. I don't see the Devils throwing a wrench into those plans. The Duke defense is legit, but Notre Dame was still able to move the ball on them before their standard drive-killing foot shooting, and come through for one last drive when it mattered. This one's a battle for a while but busts open late. Duke: 13--FSU: 27

Schweinfurth: It's too bad this game wasn't a few weeks ago, be fore Riley Leonard got hurt. Duke's offense just isn't the same without him, and for good reason. Florida State is healthier, and most likely the better team. It's just too much for Duke to overcome: Duke: 17--FSU: 35
Seeberg:  The Dookies have appeared so often this year I'd swear we're running a basketball blog.  Alas, that run may come to an end here.  FSU throttled LSU early and has coasted without incident since, save for a pesky Clemson squad.  Duke's defense is actually on par with Dabo's unit (amazing to type that with sincerity), but the Blue Devils aren't potent enough on offense to hang around for four quarters.  FSU rolls, Chief smiles.  Duke: 17--FSU: 28

Utah Utes @ Southern California Trojans

Draper: SC isn't the team we thought due to their total lack of defense and, perhaps more concerning, their atrocious offensive line.  Williams is still the #1 overall pick, but last week showed that pressure can cause problems for the Torjans.  Kyle Whittingham has had Utah as the standard in the Pac12 for years whether people hear it or not.  However, this iteration just isn't the same.  While I think the Ute Dline can frustrate SC, I don't think they have the horses that Notre Dame does.  I expect the Trojans to emerge victorious and the Utes to continue to prove that Florida just isn't good.  Utah: 20--USC: 34
Hoying: Speaking of teams that are hopeless without their starting QB, Cam Rising has yet to play a single snap for the Utes this season. And it shows: Utah is putting up Iowa-esque numbers through the air, and while that has resulted in an Iowa-esque W-L record on the back of an Iowa-esque defense, the Utes haven't seen anything like what Caleb Williams is about to rain down on them. Utah's two big wins this year have been against UCLA's decidedly-not-DTR Dante Moore, and Florida's Graham Mertz. From Wisconsin. The Utes were outgained in both games but made enough big plays on defense to grind out victories. Now you might be saying, "hey wait a minute, didn't one of the teams in this game just outgain their opponent last week but get blown out because of big plays on defense?" Yes, that's true, but Notre Dame had the horses on O to make SC pay after the defense did the dirty work. Utah has struggled to move the ball against anybody this year, and while the Trojan run D is usually good for what ails ya, the Utes just aren't potent enough to take advantage. Utah: 13--USC: 24

Schweinfurth: Notre Dame really exposed USC last week. The Trojan defense is exactly what we think of it, horrible. Good news for Trojans, Utah's offence hasn't looked great this year. I fully expect Utah to put up points here. USC can't get their D off the field. Caleb Williams may have lost the Heisman (as of now) this year, but he's still a difference maker. Utah: 28--USC: 31
Seeberg:  Intriguing matchup here of "highly movable object" meets "easily stoppable force".  Strength on strength and weakness on eye-gouging weakness in this contest.  Utah has absolutely bullied the Trojans for a couple seasons now, but with an impotent offense this year, even a ho-hum day from Caleb Williams is likely enough to get a W against a team that scored a whopping 7 offensive points against the other Rose Bowl home team.  Trojans exact a little revenge Utah: 17--USC: 24

Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: For the first time in a decent number of years, PSU enters the game with (arguably) the stronger QB.  While McCord isn't deserving of the crap he's received from Buckeye Nation, he isn't Stroud, Fields, etc.  It seems that the years change but the narrative doesn't.  'This is the year Franklin has the horses'; 'OSU is primed to fall from the top'; 'The Lions are the new class of the East'...blah blah blah.  The truth is that Penn State is very talented on both sides, but the dirty secret is that OSU is more talented at almost all positions (exception being QB--maybe-- and Oline).  If Penn State wants to pull the upset, they need to exploit the advantage with their dline vs the meh OSU Oline.  If they can get to McCord early and often AND the stout OSU defense (who has faced teams with a pulse unlike the Lions) reverts to the bust games of years past.  I think this will be a knock down drag out fight, but the Silver Bullets do enough to slow the Penn State attack and the run game breaks a few explosives for the Scarlet and Gray.  Injuries be darned, let's ride.  PSU: 24--OSU: 27
Hoying: If you look at the advanced stats, this game seems to be split right down the middle. Both teams have great defenses. Both have offenses that are a little underwhelming compared to where they'd like to be. The big difference is that Ohio State is battle tested and Penn State is not. Yes, it was one battle, but Kyle McCord has been forced to stare down the home crowd and drive the length of the field in do-or-die time, and Drew Allar has not. You could point to Penn State putting up 31 points against the brick wall that is otherwise Iowa, but that's more a function of being gifted about 500 plays of offense due to the Hawkeyes' inability to hang on to the ball for more than a few seconds at a time against a talented PSU front. And that was at home; the Lions have been a bit...off...on the road this year, turning in a curious first half clunker against Northwestern of all teams, and needing multiple turnovers to pull away from Illinois. I don't trust them to put up a lot of points in the unfriendly confines of Ohio Stadium. That puts the game in the hands of the Ohio State offense, and they will have their work cut out for them. No one defends the pass like Penn State, and while they have been a bit more vulnerable on the ground, are the Bucks going to be able to replicate last week's success against a significantly better run D? Ryan Day better be ready to pull out all the stops in this one: Devin Brown, Dallan Hayden, jump passes, just no more end arounds on 4th-and-1, please. I see this as a knock down drag out rock fight like the mess we all had to suffer through back in 2008, one that could come down to an untimely turnover late. But they ain't called Pick Six University for nothing. Buckeyes take a squeaker. PSU: 13--OSU: 16

Schweinfurth: This has the feel of a street fight. Both defenses have played excellent. Ohio State has faced some tough offenses in Notre Dame (hard running team) and Maryland (good passing team) and have passed the test to this point. I am not sold on what Penn State has tried to do on offense. Everything has been short passes and check downs. They haven't tried to stretch the field at all. They may try it here, but they haven't even shown that they trust Aller to throw deep. The Lion's defense will challenge McCord, but he seems to have the coaches' trust to try and make the big play. I really don't see many teams matching up against the Ohio State wide out room. The Buckeyes have been tested and know how to win these types of games. Penn State hasn't been tested yet, and this is a rough one to dive in head first. Bucks win in a close one. PSU: 10--OSU: 17
Seeberg:  Oh boy.  I've seen this game broken down every which way all week.  I...am not enthusiastic.  I actually watched the "game winning drive" Kyle McCord engineered against ND on my lunch break today.  A slew of poorly located balls, a near-INT, a grounding call (lousy, in fairness).  Two good darts to Emeka down the seam and that was about it honestly.  Took 15 plays to go 65 yards.  Fifteen plays would've been three TDs last year in all likelihood.  On the bright side, the defense is sneaking closer to regaining that mythical Silver Bullets moniker we all enjoy.  Explosive plays are gone- and Penn State, oddly, doesn't create them anyway.  I've heard good analysts say that's a huge edge for the Buckeyes but I don't know.  Penn State is built to dink and dunk and move the ball between the 20s and Ohio State is built to let you do just that.  Yardage may be easy for them to come by.  Believe it or not, until Notre Dame's very last series of the game, Ohio State hadn't produced a single negative play on defense.  Not one.  If the Lions stay on schedule they will move the ball, and because James Franklin, a notoriously lousy coach in these moments, is just that, he will kick field goals when the analytics say GO- and if Freeman had done that the Irish may have been smiling last month.  Add to that the uncertainty of no less than 4 key contributors (Burke and Egbuka the most important in my opinion) and I like almost nothing about this game other than it's in Columbus.  Is Penn State's defense for real?  Even having faced putrid offenses and whatever Iowa claims to be rolling out, it's still a defense comparable to Notre Dame, and at full strength we managed one big Henderson run (questionable availability), a FG and a couple of seam throws to Egbuka (also questionable).  Last week, every game that I picked as a one-possession game went the opposite way.  I sure hope that happens here, but I just don't know.  Pains me to even type it, but the Lions assert themselves as the best non-cheating program in the B1G East. PSU: 19--OSU: 17

Upset Special
Draper: Stanford over UCLA
Hoying: Minnesota over Iowa
Schweinfurth: Washington St. over Oregon
Seeberg: UCF over Oklahoma

Week 7: BIG Present and Future TENse

Standings:

1.) Draper 22-9 (1-5 upset)
1.) Seeberg 22-9 (1-5 upset)
1.) Schweinfurth 22-9 (0-6 upset)
4.) Hoying 21-10 (1-5 upset)

We're hitting the stride of the last classic-ish Big Ten season with a sneaky game of consequence out west. But that "west" will soon be central as the B1G's shiny new toys will be joining the fold next year, and each of them has their own ranked matchup to deal with this week. And, of course, never ever sleep on the Spoilermakers in West Lafayette.

Oregon Ducks @ Washington Huskies

Draper: A fun game in the last year of the Pac-12 that has real National Title implications.  The Huskies have been a machine on offense led by Big Penix Energy, but the Ducks have been right on their tails with Big BoNix Energy.  I expect fireworks in Seattle in which these teams go blow for blow all day.  While I think Oregon may have the better defense (by a smidgen), Michael Penix has a real claim to Heisman frontrunner.  The question is Oregon's balanced offense vs. Washington's fire passing attack.  While I see my colleagues are quacking, I'm howling for a HUGE home win for the Huskies showing they're for real (in the Pac 12).  Ore: 38--UW: 44
Hoying: Welcome to the discount Big Ten Championship, featuring next year’s discount Big Ten additions. USC is still in the mix, but in the second and final year of divisionless play in the Pac-12, the winner of this game has a cushy inside track to Las Vegas in December. Last year’s iteration in Eugene was a back-and-forth masterpiece that featured Penix barely outdueling BoNix. Fewer people remember that Oregon also gashed Washington on the ground in that game, and the Ducks have taken the same balanced offense into 2023. Washington’s air attack only gets more lethal by the week, but they don’t really have a credible rushing attack to back it up (sound familiar?). Add this to a somewhat suspect run defense for the Huskies and you have the recipe for the Ducks to take control of the Pac-12 farewell tour. Ore: 34—UW: 31

Schweinfurth: The battle of the transfer QBs! BoNix versus the Penix. These two teams appear to be the class of the Pac-12 this year. Both teams have been playing great defense, but I really think the offenses are going to shine. This has all the markings of a shootout. It should be a fun one to watch. Ore: 38—UW: 42
Seeberg:  Game of the week with an IU quarterback.  No, not "big noon" with UM and Indiana, thankfully, it's the battle of the nines as Bo NIX battles Michael PenIX and the Huskies.  The Pac-TBD is remarkably legit, with a bunch of above average power five teams and these two CFP contenders.  The loser probably isn't out of the conversation in all honesty.  This one feels like a complete toss-up to me, but I think the Ducks are just enough better in the trenches to outlast a really good Husky team.  Ducks late. Ducks: 31--Wash: 26

 

Iowa Hawkeyes @ Wisconsin Badgers

Draper: While the Ducks and Huskies will (should?) be setting the scoreboard on fire, the Badgers and Hawkeyes travel back to 19-diggity-2 where the forward pass was a glint in the eye of old John Heisman.  This should be a defensive slugfest, but I wouldn't be surprised if the scores outdo those in Seattle (because college football).  All evidence points to the winner here taking the B1G West (but who cares?).  Iowa has been a trainwreck all year....that just keeps winning inexplicably.  I have no faith that Wisconsin isn't right there in the dumpster with Iowa, but I think they can pull out a gross win at home.  It would be funny for 2 defensive scores to keep Iowa alive, but I think they only steal one.  Iowa: 13--Wisc: 20
Hoying: I know it’s literally the midway point of the season, but there’s a good chance one of these teams could have the final Big Ten West crown wrapped up when the clock hits zeroes in Madison. Fittingly for this dumpster fire of a division, the other five teams are among the worst in the Power 5 FBS Division I, so the title game berth is going to one of these two mediocre squads by default. As you probably know, Wisconsin still has to host the Buckeyes circa Halloween, but the other B1G East teams left for these teams are Rutgers and Indiana, which means there’s a very good chance that one of these teams will crawl out of the sludge of this matchup, waltz to 11-1, and be in prime position to have a 2014 Wisconsin Badgers-esque time against one of the three-headed monster. As for who that team will be, this is always a game where you can pencil in the Badgers unless they have a million turnovers. The Hawkeye D is good, and a plus turnover ratio has been the key to their 2-game B1G winning streak, but Wisconsin is perfectly content to keep the ball on the ground, grind it out, and dare the Hawkeyes to score. Which they can’t. Iowa is currently churning out a 33% Eckel rate (% of drives including a 1^st-and-10 inside the opponent 40 or a big-play TD), and they get a miserable 2.63 points on each Eckel. Unless Iowa can get the ball to jump around out of the Badgers’ hands, they can put their last hopes of a Big Ten Championship for the foreseeable future to bed early. Iowa: 10—Wis: 20

Schweinfurth: Iowa has a great defense and still has the worst offense known to man. Wisconsin has a serviceable defense, but is still adjusting to more of a spread style. This game may be which team can actually find the endzone. Iowa might actually win this game with under 10 points. Iowa: 13—UW: 6
Seeberg: Yuck, this one won't be pretty.  First to 20(ish) wins!  The Badgers have put in four workman-like wins this year sandwiched around a loss to Washington State that honestly doesn't look too bad.  The Hawkeyes have a laughably inept goose egg in Happy Valley and a squeaker at home against Purdue.  I don't think that offense is going to do enough to stifle Jump Around.  Badgers ugly.  Iowa: 10--Wisc: 17 

Southern California Trojans @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Draper: Say what you will about the Irish, but their schedule is BRUTAL.  OSU, Duke, Louisville, then USC??? Doesn't sound like a murderer's row, but Duke and Louisville on the road are pretty good.  I don't know if they can get off the mat again.  The OSU game almost cost them Duke and the energy was just trash against the Cardinals.  The good news? USC's defense is still led by Alex Grinch! SC still has Caleb Williams (which really does mean something), but this feels like a put up or shut up for old man Sam Hartman.  If the Irish don't light up the scoreboard, Freeman might need to find a realtor.  If the Irish defense can fix some of last week's woes and just keep scoring, I think many of last week's sins will be forgiven.  Arizona had USC beat and gagged it away.  Make no mistake, Arizona is trash.  If the Irish had a single WR, they'd be in good shape, but the TEs will be enough to keep up while the defense gets a key stop or 2.  Irish win close.  SC: 31--ND: 34
Hoying: Does Notre Dame ever play a game during daylight hours? Did LSU trade them their kickoff times in return for Brian Kelly? This should help the Trojans’ body clocks, but there’s no telling whether they’ll be ready for low 50’s, wind gusts, and rain. USC QB Caleb Williams is transcendent, but anyone who remembers the Ohio State Northwestern game last year will know that bad weather games are won on the ground. And that would be exceptionally bad for the Trojans; they play run D like their defenders are wearing magnets with the same polarity as the running backs. And Notre Dame has Au[d]ric Estime and the rest of the four horsemen that you saw wearing down the usually stout Ohio State run D in the second half. I’m not convinced that USC would have the upper hand even if Williams is free to cook; they’ve managed to make each of their last three games way closer than they needed to be by letting the other team move the ball seemingly at will. After a hot start, the Irish haven’t scored more than 20 points in any of their last 3 games, but that should change in a big way on Saturday. If they ever figure out how to pick up a third down. The wobbly wheels start to fall off the Trojan Playoff wagon. USC: 31—ND: 35

Schweinfurth: Notre Dame has had a gauntlet of a month. Ohio State, Duke, Louisville, and now USC. It finally caught up with them last week. The Irish looked all out of sorts on defense. The good news for them, USC chooses not to play defense. The problem is that Caleb Williams is still the Trojan QB. It just doesn’t look good for the Irish. The Trojans’ lack of defense keeps the Irish in this, but Williams is just on another level right now. USC: 42—ND: 35
Seeberg:  I'm less and less impressed with the golden domers after our last-second win in South Bend, and more and more impressed with USC, at least on the offensive side of the ball.  The Irish WRs might actually get separation in this game, and Sam Hartman will have time to find them.  The Trojans will absolutely score it, however.  I can talk myself into either team winning this one, but I don't think the Irish are ready just yet to beat a Big 10 powerhouse.  So weird saying that.  USC: 34--ND: 28

Miami Hurricanes @ North Carolina Tar Heels

Draper: Miami is coming off of the most hilarious loss of all time last week against a PUTRID Georgia Tech team.  I don't care if the UM running back was 100% down before fumbling (he was), you don't just come back to normal after your coaches literally went from a 99.999% chance of winning and did the 7 things you cannot do....in order...in a minute.  Absolutely brutal (but hilarious--Go Noles).  The Tarheels have looked fantastic outside of a game they stole from App State.  This will be more of the same.  Drake Maye takes care of business.  UM: 17--UNC: 34
Hoying: All right! Another undefeated matchu…what was that? The Hurricanes did what? OK, so absent perhaps the dumbest coaching decision I have ever seen, the Hurricanes would be 5-0 and still in the thick of the Playoff chase, but let’s not forget that they were in a position to lose at home to Georgia Tech, a team that had just lost to bad bad Bowling Green the week prior. That being said, NC almost dropped an early game to App State, but they’ve been generally as dominant otherwise as Miami has. The Canes should come out frothing at the mouth to wash out the bad taste of last week. Miami: 31—UNC: 23

Schweinfurth: Before last week, I may have picked Miami here. And then Mario Cristobel forgot you are allowed to take a knee to end games. I question weather or not the players trust the coaching staff at all after that. On the other side, Drake Maye is starting to look like himself again. It just doesn’t look good for the U right now. Miami: 21—UNC: 35
Seeberg:  This is a ranked matchup after that absurd U debacle last week?  Fascinating.  The Tar Heels are humming right along against a mediocre schedule and up to #12 in the country.  Miami should be out to prove something in this one, but on the road I don't think they'll have enough to get it done.  Tar Heels pull away late.  UM: 24--UNC: 35

California, Los Angeles Bruins @ Oregon State Beavers

Draper: I really don't think either of these teams is that good.  DJ Ukulele has had his resurgence in Corvallis, but....I just don't care.  Chip handled the Cougs last week, but....I just don't care.  These seem like 2 teams vying to finish in the 15-20 range at seasons end.  I'll lean the Beavers and the turnover chainsaw to complete the sweep of LA this weekend.  UCLA: 24--OrSt: 31
Hoying: One of the consequences of having 7 (!) ranked teams in a 12-team conference is that there is always a banger undercard for whatever juggernaut matchup headlines the day. And as the undefeated teams continue to fall, the cycles start to appear. Like Washington State beat Oregon State, who beat Utah, who beat UCLA, who beat Washington State. What does that say about this matchup? Does it matter that all four of the winners in the aforementioned cycle were playing at home? That may be the key to everything here, because I’ll be darned if I can find a material advantage for either of these teams. So I’ll take the easy way out. UCLA: 24—OrSt: 28

Schweinfurth: Oregon State has been a good story thus far, but I do question is they have what it takes to hang with the better teams in the Pac-12. UCLA has been a bit disappointing to this point, but I think they bounce back on this one. UCLA: 20—Ore St.: 17
Seeberg:  Another matchup of good-but-not-great Pac opponents.  UCLA has been on a bit of a rollercoaster ride lately, laying a massive egg on the road against Utah's 3rd string QB before beating a good Wazzou squad last week.  The Beavers' D is a couple notches better than WSU's 98th ranked unit, and we saw what a physical defense can do to Chip Kelly's team in Salt Lake City.  Bruins manage double digits, but can't quite get the road win.  UCLA: 17--OrSt: 27

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Purdue Boilermakers

Draper: Top 5 undefeated OSU vs. unranked Purdue....tale as old as time.  While the echoes of the past resound, and I'm sure Peacock will show the stat that unranked Purdue has beaten a top 5 opponent an astounding 18 times while second place is 11 times.  Also, 5 of those upsets was, you guessed it, THE Ohio State Buckeyes.  Unfortunately for Purdue, none of those Purdue teams nor those OSU teams are on the field in West Lafayette this weekend.  I have a sneaky feeling that this might be a game in which a few things click early and often for the scarlet and gray.  Egbuka didn't make the trip, but Marv is still an alien.  The Oline gets better this week against a hapless Purdue Dline and starts imposing their will a bit.  It won't translate to the big boys, but this team is due for a complete game against an overmatched opponent.  Trey is set to return and I expect at least one explosive from him in the running game with a few deep shots from McCord.  Don't sleep on Xavier Johnson stepping in for Egbuka as well as a little Carnell Tate action.  The Silver Bullets will continue the bend don't break approach against the Texas transfer and stifle the Boilers.  Bucks roll.  OSU: 48--PU: 10
Hoying: Everywhere you look (there’s a heart…) you will hear nightmare tales of Ohio State’s woes at historic Ross-Ade Stadium. But these stories rely on data that is, paradoxically, both too biased toward recency and stretching back too far on the timeline. Let me explain: everyone knows the Buckeyes have lost 5 of their last 8 games at Purdue, right? Do you know why that statistic always stops at 8? Because Ohio State took home a win on 8 of their previous 10 visits to West Lafayette. Also, those 8 games everyone loves to bring up? Those span 19 years, stretching all the way back to the late Cooper years, when the quality and consistency of Ohio State football was nowhere near today’s standard. As for those 5 losses? Well, Purdue might have been better than Ohio State in 2000, 2004, and 2011. 2018 Purdue was perfectly crafted to take advantage of the few flaws of a near-elite Ohio State football team. And 2009…well you’ll go broke if you try to bet on repeats of that game happening. Every coach gets one baffling impossible-to-predict loss. Let’s hope Day’s was Oregon in 2021. Anyway, as far as this game goes, it may be tempting to label it as a trap game on the road nicely sandwiched between home dates with the undefeated #3 and #4 teams in the Big Ten East. But you may have heard me say before that traps have to have the capacity to be sprung, and Purdue doesn’t really excel at anything. Yeah, the “CJ Stroud is actually really good” domino that knocked Quinn Ewers to Texas has resulted in QB Hudson Card ending up at Purdue but he’s been woefully inconsistent so far. And the defense is horrible, although that was also true in 2018. Everyone remembers Rondale Moore from that game (and rightfully so) but Anthony McFarland was just as lethal for Maryland and Ohio State was able to barely scrape out a victory in College Park. The difference was finishing in the red zone, as the Buckeyes outgained the Boilermakers on the night back in 2018, but after the first three quarters, Purdue had 3 TDs and Ohio State had three field goal attempts and six total points to show for their efforts. I suppose the inconsistencies in the Buckeye run game could similarly keep points off the board here but the difference is that the Boilers don’t have a Rondale Moore to make us pay this time. At worst you get something like the “Holy Buckeye” game, but, warts and all, I don’t think this team’s offense is anywhere near as bad as the 2002 Midseason Experience Starring Lydell Ross and Maurice Hall. Buckeyes win comfortably and set their fryers on bigger fish. OSU: 38—PU: 6

Schweinfurth: Hoo boy. The Bucks are traveling to Purdue. You know, the proverbial house of horrors. No team since the turn of the century has a better win percentage against Ohio State than Purdue. The Bucks have issue running the ball, but they still have Route Man Marv. No Egbuka is a big blow, but Carnel Tate is a serviceable backup at this point. What scares me is the weather. The Buckeyes already have issues running the ball. It could be an issue if it’s a rainy game. This Purdue teams isn’t great, but if the Buckeyes lose on Peacock, will anyone see it? I know I won’t. OSU: 28—Purdue: 9
Seeberg:  An absolutely chilling statistic has circulated the world wide web this week.  EVERY Ohio State head coach since Wes Fesler (he coached in the '40s, if you were wondering) has lost at least once AT Purdue.  Ross-Ade is like the No. 2 court at Wimbledon, otherwise known as the Graveyard of Champions.  These editions of the Boilermakers and Buckeyes are pretty typical on paper with OSU opening as a 3-TD favorite on the road (the number has since dropped to 19.5).  Look closer and, well, things just aren't right here in Columbus.  A painfully putrid 1.9 YPC last week is concerning to say the least.  What's even scarier is even when adjusting for sack yardage AND the botched snap on the punt, the average was still just 2.9, which obviously won't get it done against the likes of PSU and UM.  If this game were at night in West Lafayette my panic meter would be even a notch or two higher.  An icky weather forecast (50s and possible rain) is bad for a fast-track team like our Buckeyes.  Still, I can't imagine Purdue holding up on their own O-line, and the RBs and O-line should be hungry to silence the critics.  I don't expect it to be pretty, but get the W and get out of that hellhole.  OSU: 31--Pur: 13

Upset Special
Draper: Cal over Utah
Hoying: Auburn over LSU
Schweinfurth: Pitt over Louisville
Seeberg: Arizona over Washington State