Week 16: We Have Playoffs at Home

Standings:

1.) Draper 43-18 (2-12 upset)
2.) Hoying 42-19 (3-11 upset)
3.) Seeberg 42-19 (3-11 upset)
4.) Schweinfurth 38-23 (1-13 upset)

After perhaps the most maddening one-year absence in the history of the College Football Playoff, the Buckeyes make their triumphant return within the friendly and frozen confines of Ohio Stadium. Other teams will be shivering across the college football landscape (except Clemson, lucky you) as eight teams jockey for the four remaining spots in the quarterfinal bowl games.

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 20

Indiana Hoosiers @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Draper: Notre Dame enters the playoffs as, perhaps, the hottest team outside of Eugene while Indiana failed their one test on the year.  However, these teams have quite similar resumes.  Neither played a schedule with any meat, but while Notre Dame has a nice win (not great) @A&M, they also have the bad loss home vs. NIU.  Riley Leonard is managing the game well but the ground game is the hallmark for Freeman's Irish.  Indiana will go as far as Kurtis Rourke will bring them.  They're playing with house money (no matter what Cignetti says).  They should come out with nothing to lose, but the elements will work against them. The snow will make the air game a challenge which is a problem for the Crimson.  I like the Irish to ground and pound against a decent IU defense, but it won't be enough.  The Irish move on.  IU: 17--ND: 27
Hoying: Indiana should send a nice fruit basket to whoever at the Big Ten offices set the schedules for this season. The Hoosiers played zero power conference opponents out of conference, beat one team with a winning record (7-5 Michigan), faced exactly one ranked opponent (Ohio State), got blasted, and waltzed right into a spot in the inaugural 12-team Playoff. Of course, it's not like Notre Dame faced a murderer's row either; their only opponent currently ranked is...Army...who just lost to Navy after the last rankings were released. The power of unbalanced schedules. Turning to the game at hand, Indiana QB Kurtis Rourke stands out amid a field of pretty mediocre quarterbacks in this year's Playoff. Unfortunately, that plays right into ND's hands, as they have one of the top pass defenses in college football alongside Texas and Ohio State. Speaking of Ohio State, you may remember the Silver Bullets making Rourke's life absolutely miserable. Notre Dame doesn't quite have the sack attack that the Buckeyes can provide, but they still have one of the better D-lines around. As for the Irish attack, QB Riley Leonard has been getting somewhat better as the season progresses, but Notre Dame is primarily a run-first team, with the triple threat of Jeremiyah Love, Jadarian Price, and Leonard himself leading the way. Indiana's defense has been solid; even Ohio State only put up 316 yards (although a punt block and punt return TD tend to limit your yardage opportunities). But I think this game is decided on the other side of the ball. If Rourke is comfortable, Indiana will be able to move the ball at will like they did for the first 9 games of their season. If Freeman can dial up some pressure, Notre Dame should be able to do just enough with their ground game to pull out a W. IU: 24--ND: 27
Schweinfurth: Indiana is a great story. They came from absolutely nowhere to become Google famous. Here's the thing, they dodged Penn State and Oregon and had an 11-1 record to show for it. That one loss, yea the one top 5 team they actually played. Notre Dame has been a buzz saw since losing to NIU. Marcus Freeman has his guys playing with bad intentions. The weather may be a factor here, but the Domers are so much better on both lines. Notre Dame puts Indiana back in its place. IU: 17--ND: 24
Seeberg:  Honestly?  It's a darn shame this game didn't happen the first 4-5 weeks of the year.  IU came out of nowhere as this year's college football darling, save for a whooping in the 'Shoe.  The golden domers came out of the gates hot with a still-decent win at Texas A&M week 1, then meandered for a few weeks before finally hitting the gas pedal and playing up to their level the last half of the year.  Indiana might actually become a football state if the Hoosiers pull this one off, but I just don't see it.  The path for ND is clear to the semis, and Freeman knows he can't waste this opportunity.  ND pulls away late.  IU: 20--ND: 31

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 21

Southern Methodist Mustangs @ Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions

Draper: Another game in which the home team has everything to lose and little to gain.  SMU, like IU, is just happy to be here while the Lions know that a loss here would continue the narrative (truth?) about their lack of taking care of business in the big game.  PSU played their best game of the year in the B1G championship but still came up short.  SMU can stop the run, but PSU's explosion against Oregon came on the ground.  I think we will see a mismatch of athletes on the field and the Mustangs will have some struggles in the cold weather.  Once again, the better conditioned, bigger athletes control the line of scrimmage and prove too much for the newcomer.  It will be scary (hilarious?) early as it looks like James Franklin coughs up another big game, but the Nittany Lions pull out the win and advance.  SMU: 17--PSU: 24
Hoying: And here we have the second Big Ten team to be gifted a Playoff spot, but Santa really went all out under the tree in Happy Valley. Astoundingly, the Lions managed to parlay a loss in the Big Ten Championship into a spot in the only CFP quadrant with zero power conference champions. These two deserve each other; the best win either one has is...SMU beating Louisville? Penn State beating Illinois? Anyway, somebody has to win this one and face the juggernaut that is Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl. Drew Allar has been among the nation's most efficient QBs, even with no wide receiver corps to speak of, although he couldn't really get anything going against either Ohio State or Oregon. The running game sure worked against the Ducks though, as both Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton were able to top 100 yards in the B1G Championship game. SMU is no great shakes in the running game, and they've been working against much more forgiving run defenses in the ACC. I don't see any need to overthink this one. Yes, James Franklin has been known to make some...questionable decisions in Penn State's biggest games, but hosting the Playoff's gotta-include-another-team-to-fill-out-the-bracket team barely qualifies as a big game for PSU. Let's see what this brick wall run D can do against Ashton Jeanty on New Year's Eve. SMU: 20--PSU: 27
Schweinfurth: I feel like SMU could shock some people here. Penn State doesn't blow anyone out. SMU has some good momentum coming off the loss in the ACC Championship game (odd to say that). Penn State has a difference maker in Tyler Warren. He can be shut down (see Caleb Downs), but SMU doesn't have that guy. The Kitties move on. SMU: 14--PSU: 17
Seeberg:  I...have a weird feeling about this one.  I just don't see these games going all chalk, someone is gonna get got.  I don't want it to be my Buckeyes, so this one is the one I have my eye on.  Penn State's proclivity to avoid testing themselves whenever possible (seriously, look at their perennial non-con schedule it's a joke) is a problem.  They acquitted themselves well offensively against Oregon but absolutely could not get off the field.  SMU is built like Oregon-lite.  On paper, Penn State is better.  The game is in Happy Valley, but James Franklin's bemused indifference may very well prove to be the difference as the Lions squander a golden road to the semis.  SMU: 24--PSU: 23

Clemson Tigers @ Texas Longhorns

Draper: Our 3rd 'happy to be here' team goes into Darrell K Royal with nothing to lose (see a theme?).  Clemson was dead to rights until pulling out a miracle appearance and win in the ACC Championship.  Dabo pulls more magic out of a hat than he has a right to, but it's tough to see it continuing here.  The Horns defense has been spectacular and I don't see Cade Klubnik taking the crown.  Can the UT QB (whoever it is) move the ball consistently? Against the Tigers, I say yes.  I don't expect this one to be terribly close without more voodoo.  Clem: 13--UT: 27
Hoying: Charity cases, charity cases everywhere. You thought Indiana, Notre Dame, SMU, and Penn State had easy paths to the Playoff? Let's add Clemson to the list. One win over a team with a winning record (7-5 Pitt) and three losses overall bought them a ticket to the ACC Championship where they won on a 16-second drive after a game tying FG by SMU. Texas, meanwhile, managed to carve out a relatively light schedule even within the mighty SEC but couldn't get by big bad Georgia either in Austin or Atlanta. At least they got a nice soft path to the Playoff semifinals through Clemson and Arizona freaking State. The Horns have one of the top defenses in the country, probably the only one that challenges Silver Bullet supremacy. The offense is...OK; Quinn Ewers seems to have taken a step back from last season, to the point that some of the Burnt Orange faithful have been clamoring for Next Big Thing Arch Manning to take over the starting role. Clemson might actually have the edge at QB in this one as Cade Klubnik continues to improve (amazing what not having DJU can do for you). But that's where the advantages end. Klubnik isn't going to be able to move the ball against this Texas defense and while Ewers may be frustrated from time to time, the Horn attack is balanced enough to get the job done against a more questionable Clemson defense. The Tigers fall to 0-3 against the SEC this season. Clem: 10--UT: 20
Schweinfurth: Clemson's D line is pretty good. Texas has a pretty good defense in general. They really don't give much up. This will truly come down to which Texas offense shows up. Is it the offense that Ewers commands and dominates, or does Texas hem and haw between Manning and Ewers. It may not matter much here, but if could lead to issues for the second game. Clem: 9--UT: 21
Seeberg:  Remember when expanding the playoffs meant we'd get to see different teams?  Oops.  Dabo and Co. snuck in as the 12 seed and their reward is a great(?) Texas team.  Honestly losing to Georgia twice is forgivable, but losing to their backup QB (for a quarter and a half anyway) does raise an eyebrow or two.  Quinn Ewers has been good but surprisingly not elite this season.  Still the Longhorns D might be the only one in the playoffs as good as the silver bullets, and it's hard to imagine Dabo's old school offense mustering enough points to stay in this one for four quarters.  Don't adjust your TVs, whole lotta shades of orange all around, but the burnt-sienna style takes the day.  Clem: 13--UT: 24

Tennessee Volunteers @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: How do the Buckeyes want to be remembered? The team that suffered one of the (if not the) worst loss in OSU history or as national champions? This year will forever have a stain from the final regular season contest, but the end has yet to be written.  The game will come down to one main element: will the Buckeyes come out loose with no regrets or tight and scared to lose? Yes, the offensive line struggled against the Wolverine front and Tennessee is just as stout (not up the middle), but will the last time they took the field be a galvanizing force or a fear inducing memory? If the Buckeyes play their game and utilize the weapons effectively, it really shouldn't be that close.  Tennessee has a very good defense, but their offense leaves much to the imagination.  Yes, they beat Bama, but watching that game showed the Tide beating themselves.  OSU is more than capable of beating themselves (grrrrr....) but if they can avoid tripping over their own feet and execute cleanly, there isn't a better team in the country.  Here's my projection: Howard plays a good game (not up to the Oregon game but far better than the atrocity in Nov), the receivers actually become part of the gameplan, and the running game on the edge breaks some big runs.  On the defensive side, the Vols will break a few runs and hit Squirrel White for a few infuriating 3rd down conversions, but the bend don't break nature of the Bullets will be the difference.  The MVP of the game will be a toss up between Jeremiah Smith on a few amazing catches or Emeka Egbuka balling out on a consistent basis.  If Howard is just 'good', Bucks move on to the rematch in Pasadena.  UT: 13--OSU: 24
Hoying: Good luck figuring out this team after their last two performances. Are we going to see the Buckeyes that laid the hammer on a top five team, or the one that couldn't get out of first gear against the most mid Michigan since the Brady Hoke era? My guess is "no" on both counts. The game against Indiana was won with a relentless pass rush and essentially two TDs on special teams. Don't count on Caleb Downs to house another punt (although it would be nice not to let them bounce for 30 yards) but he should be able to do anything else the Buckeyes expect from him. Heck, he got his first interception of the season against the hated maize and blue to gift wrap a Buckeye possession in the red zone. The Buckeyes were as close to automatic as you can get in the red zone all year before getting 10 points out of 5 trips in the Michigan game. The good news is that I don't think our offense can possibly look as bad as it did in the Buckeyes' last outing. The Buckeye O essentially did exactly as much, no more, no less, that they needed to lose. You can (and should) crap on the play calling, but all those runs up the middle? Half of them were runs outside that were poorly blocked or turned back inside by mistake by Judkins and Henderson. You wanted to pass the ball more? Howard had by far his worst day in the scarlet and gray, giving away 7 points to Michigan and taking another likely 7 off the board by throwing behind an Egbuka with room to work inside. If Howard just tucks and runs on every called pass, Michigan probably fails to put enough offense together to get the W. Then again, any plans to run Howard were scrambled when he took a big hit in the first half, putting the kid gloves back on the QB run game in the Ryan Day offense. The good news is that from this point on, every game is the last game of the year. We aren't getting a chance to skate by a cupcake in the first round like we all thought after the Indiana game. Jim Knowles took the Oregon game personally, and the Buckeyes have been lights out on defense since, even to the point of making heroic play after heroic play against the team up north to desperately try to jump-start the offense. I think Chip Kelly will take similar lessons from his failure to launch; he's going to pull out all the stops each and every time the Buckeyes are blessed to take the field. You don't have to worry about keeping Will Howard healthy anymore. Speaking of which, with the death roster Ryan Day was able to put together in the offseason, I think most of Buckeye Nation believed we could make a title run just as long as we kept Will Howard upright. But I fear that the more irreplaceable piece was Seth McLaughlin, as evidenced by the consensus All-American honors he earned after taking the field only ten times and the woeful Pro Football Focus grades the interior O-line has earned in his absence. If Ryan Day has any postseason wizardry left, he'll need it to cobble together a workable offensive line after losing the only two bona fide stars we had. Otherwise, look for a repeat of last year's Cotton Bowl. Tennessee has the defense to make Ohio State pay, not quite as good as the Silver Bullets but more than capable of getting opposing offenses out of their groove, especially in the running game. Time to let Howard cook, dial up some pressure against Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava, and bury the mistakes along with our recent history in The Game. Buckeyes take a close one and move on to what may be the most consequential game of the entire Playoff. UT: 17--OSU: 24

Schweinfurth: Man, I don't have a good feeling about this game. Maybe it's the playcalling from the TUN game. Maybe it's the offensive line or even Ryan Day's elite pucker ability. Seriously, how many diamonds has his butt made the last 4 years. I heard Tennessee described as "a better version of Michigan." I guess the good news is that they wear orange and white and not maize and blue? Look, let it rip. At this point, the Buckeyes have nothing to lose but pride. I want to see the Ohio State team that showed up against Georgia a few years ago. That Ohio State team wins this game going away. A timid game. Tennessee wins. We will know early which Ryan Day/Chip Kelly we get. I really want another shot at Oregon. UT: 14--OSU: 21
Seeberg:  Heavy sigh.  As nice a consolation prize as a home playoff game is, let's be honest, 10-2 was the absolute floor for this team this season, and we thudded into it spectacularly three weeks ago.  This game gives me a lot of heebie-jeebies.  Tennessee mirrors you-know-who (no, not Voldemort, Day/Cooper's nemesis) in a lot of ways:  very-good-to-great defense, middling-to-lousy offense, reliance on the run game (but with an elite RB), laughably overpaying for a high school QB, comically delusional fanbase, etc.  The only thing that gives me solace is that they won't be coming out of the visitor's tunnel in the southwest corner tomorrow night wearing winged helmets and piss-yellow with navy.  Both of these teams tend to start slow, and if it happens again, the 'Shoe could get ugly in a hurry.  For those who didn't notice.  Ohio State went tempo on two drives against UM, resulting in 10 points- and in case you forgot, 10 points is all the Buckeye offense mustered.  Under NO circumstances can this team wait til the "middle 8" of the game to find its 4th and 5th gear.  Amusingly, they do NOT script plays for...reasons?  And the last game that the opening drive resulted in a TD?  Oregon.  Yes, we lost that one, but certainly not due to the offensive side of the ball.  Oh, and we completely abandoned rotating the D-line against UM, which allowed them to wear us down and create their only drive of consequence late in the 4th to seal the game.  Rotate early, SCORE early, manage to make special teams a wash, and we get another chance at the Ducks.  UT: 17--OSU: 28

Week 15: Day of the Dead

Standings:

1.) Draper 40-17 (2-12 upset)
2.) Hoying 39-18 (3-11 upset)
3.) Seeberg 38-19 (3-11 upset)
4.) Schweinfurth 37-20 (1-13 upset)

Conference championships are nice, and so are big shiny trophies (though not as nice as little shiny pants). But like everything else in the expanded Playoff era, they've become just a means to an end. For the big boys, it's a chance at a first-round bye (unless you'd rather have that golden 5 seed). For the little guys, the Playoff starts one game earlier, with the winner keeping their title hopes alive and the loser looking forward to getting mayo or Pop-Tarts or the armed forces dumped on their heads. 

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 7

Big 12: Iowa State Cyclones vs. Arizona State Wildcats

Draper: In the crapshoot of all crapshoots...I don't know at all what is going to happen.  Iowa State was the 'best'/'most consistent' team in the conference....until they weren't.  Then ASU came in like gangbusters after being meh to begin the season.  Is momentum a thing? I don't know.  Does anyone really think the winner of this is a threat to win it all? Of course not. But someone is going to the playoff after this fartfest of a Big12 season comes to a close.  The coin says....ride the hot hand.  Sparky yes? ASU: 27--ISU:24
Hoying: Congratulations to the Iowa State Cyclones on their first ever 10-win season! The Cyclones and the Indiana Hoosiers have finally left the ignominious group of Power 4 teams forever stuck in the single digits, leaving poor lonely Vanderbilt to hold that title all alone going forward. Ah, well, they got to 6 wins this year, 10 is surely right around the corner. How did the 'Clones finally break the 10 win barrier? A big part of it was avoiding BYU, Colorado, and, well, Arizona State along the way to a Big 12 title game berth, but ISU has been...OK...on defense, other than getting lit up by Kansas for 45 points. The offense isn't great, QB Rocco Becht is a bit of a bright spot I guess, but ASU has been generally more consistent through the air and on the ground. Sun Devil RB Cam Skattebo went ham against BYU to get Arizona State into a tie for the conference lead, and I'm not sure if Iowa State has the run D to keep him bottled up for 60 minutes. The miracle season rolls on as ASU grabs their first conference title since Jake Plummer met up with Joe Germaine in Pasadena. ASU: 24--ISU: 20
Schweinfurth: I don't have the heart after last week. Iowa State wins. ASU: 21--ISU: 24
Seeberg:  Apologies for the short write ups this week, sick toddler in the house caused lots of chaos. In any event, ISU has their first 10-win season ever- and Iowa-Nebraska still outdrew them in the tv ratings. Fan base just isn’t there, and the Sun Devils, pardon the pun, are too hot right now. ASU: 31—ISU: 23

SEC: Georgia Bulldogs vs. Texas Longhorns

Draper: Thank goodness the expanded playoffs has saved us from meaningless games like....UGA @ Texas Part 1 and UGA vs. Texas Part 2.  While it seems like this is a huge titanic struggle for dominance, it really means very little in the grand scheme of things.  UGA needed full on Kansas City treatment by the refs to survive an 8OT thriller in Clean Old-Fashioned Hate while Texas easily dispatched A&M at Kyle Field. While I'm not sold on UGA being the juggernaut everyone says they are, I'm really not sold on the Longhorns body of work this year.  Not to mention they were clobbered by this team at home 1.5 months ago.  It's hard to beat a team twice in a season, but they may need to beat em three times.  Georgia isn't consistent enough at QB, but they have plenty of NFL players ready at any moment.  I expect a repeat of what we saw in Austin.  The Dawgs may be able to lose any given Sat...but they can beat anyone if they roll seven.  UGA: 27--UT:17
Hoying: If you know me, you know I hate rematches in conference title games. But this one presents an interesting knot to unwind. Texas finished a game ahead of everyone else in the SEC, including Georgia. But Georgia beat Texas. And Georgia faced each of the other top contenders in the SEC, while Texas played Texas A&M, and...um...Georgia. So this makes for a great "prove-it" game for Texas. A win would solidly cement them as the 2-seed (or even 1-seed if Oregon loses (they won't, see below)) while a loss would really raise the fraud alert. Carson Beck has been wildly inconsistent this season, but when these two teams met in Austin, he threw two picks in the first half and the Dawgs still went in at the break up 23-0. I'm still not convinced that the Horns can handle a defensive front as nasty as Georgia's (other than Michigan's, aaaaaagggghhh). For Georgia's part, usually Kirby has to manufacture some ridiculous disrespect to get the Bulldogs' to bring their A game, but this time the pundits and bookies are doing it for him as Georgia comes in as the underdawg. Expect to see a better version of Georgia than we've observed over the last month or so. More so the "blowout the other UT" Dawgs than the "go to 8 overtimes with mediocre Georgia Tech" Dawgs. UGA: 24--UT: 20
Schweinfurth: I think Georgia is the better team, but don't have the right QB this year. Texas wins. UGA: 21--UT: 28
Seeberg:  Much has been made of Texas winning just 1 Big 12 title the last decade then immediately making the SEC title game, but they got a seriously soft schedule en route. UGA is far more battle tested and it will show in a closer one than the first time around. UGA: 20—UT: 13

ACC: Clemson Tigers vs. Southern Methodist Mustangs

Draper: Coinflip part Deux of conference championship week.  Not because this is a battle of epic proportions, but because someone's gotta win.  SMU's schedule is paper thin....they've played one game against a decent team (BYU) and lost.  Yeah they won the rest, but against no one (looking at you FSU).  On the other hand, Clemson....ALSO has beaten no one.  In their 2 biggest games, they were curbstomped by UGA and taken down at home by in-state rival in the Palmetto Bowl.  SMU's best win: Louisville? Clemson's best win: Pitt?? I guess??  Oh well.  Clemson has better athletes but I'd venture that the Ponies have a slight coaching edge as Dabo has seeming lost it with the introduction of NIL.  While a SMU loss would add a little intrigue to Selection Sunday, I can't pick the Kitties.  CJK5H.  SMU: 28--Clem: 24
Hoying: It's hard to tell how good any of the teams in the ACC are, when the top teams (SMU, Clemson, and Miami) don't play each other. I have a good sense that Clemson wouldn't do particularly well in the SEC after bookending their conference play with a blowout to Georgia and a loss to South Carolina. SMU apparently wouldn't do great in the...Big 12...with a loss to BYU. This game feels a lot like the SMU-Pitt game earlier this year, just a contest to see who's the bigger poser. It wasn't SMU back then, and I don't think it will be this weekend either. Clemson's been mired in mediocrity ever since Justin Fields' Revenge, and while a favorable schedule and the Miami Tropical Depressions have paved their return to Charlotte, the comeback train ends now. The much longer comeback story of the once literally dead SMU football program finally comes to fruition. SMU: 27--Clem: 20
Schweinfurth: I haven't watched any SMU. I don't like Clemson. SMU: 31--Clem: 21
Seeberg:  SMU appears to be for real, and this one would go a long way towards cementing that. Gotta go through Dabo though. Angry after their rivalry loss is a bad omen for the Mustangs. Tigers late. SMU: 24—Clem: 27

B1G: Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions vs. Oregon Ducks

Draper: As the Fantasy Footballers once said: I am an M&M with no chocolate....I just don't care.  The Buckeyes suffered arguably the worst loss in the HISTORY of the program this week so it's hard to get excited for this one.  The Lions backed into this one (James Franklin's only hope it would seem) while Oregon has been a machine all year outside of Madison and Eugene (oddly).  I don't have faith that Penn State is very competitive here.  The Ducks are looking forward to the playoffs, while the Lions weren't planning on being in Indy this weekend.  Another game destroyed by the 12-team playoff.  Both teams are jockeying for position, but oddly, the LOSER might have a better path (get ready for reseeding the 2nd round next year--calling it now).  Regardless, the Ducks would love to hoist a B1G Championship Trophy their first year in the conference, and I doubt Drew freaking Allar is going to stop them. Abdul Carter is a beast, but the Ducks are too versatile.  Quack... (I hate everything)....See you in the second round for round 2 Mr. Lanning. PSU: 17--UO: 31
Hoying: It's been said over the last few years, somewhat more forcefully over the last week, that Ryan Day is the Michael Jordan of James Franklins. Whether this is fair or not, the underlying point remains: are we really going to trust James Franklin to deliver on the biggest of stages, against the number 1 team in the country? Last I checked, James has one win in this stratosphere, eight years ago against our own beloved Buckeyes, and that was at home during a white-out on a fluky blocked field goal. Now, judging by the $12 get-in-the-door price to the B1G Championship, there may not be a whole lot of Duck fans making the trip, so the home environment ingredient may be in place for PSU, but they're still going to have to overcome what may be the only team in the country consistently performing at a top level. Honestly, I'm not sure I'd take the field over Oregon if I were predicting this year's Playoff champion. Dillon Gabriel has been solid every week, and the run game, although not a feature of the offense, has been a good consistent enough change of pace. And nobody has been able to move the ball against them absent a Heisman finalist or Ohio State with offensive line V 1.0. I've yet to see Drew Allar prove that he can guide the Penn State offense to a score when they absolutely need one; the Silver Bullets have positively stymied him two years straight and I don't expect the Ducks to have much more trouble. A blowout could lead to a bit more favorable Playoff seeding for the Buckeyes but I think Oregon will be happy to just get up a couple scores and choke the Lions out. PSU: 13--UO: 27

Schweinfurth: I really have no heart to pick this game. Oregon is better. PSU: 14--UO: 35
Seeberg:  It’s Franklin in a big game. That’s all anyone needs to know. PSU: 17—OU: 33

Week 14: Day of Reckoning

Standings:

1.) Draper 36-15 (2-11 upset)
2.) Hoying 35-16 (3-10 upset)
2.) Seeberg 35-16 (3-10 upset)
4.) Schweinfurth 34-17 (1-12 upset)

During the peak Cooper years of 1995-1997, Ohio State saw two of their #2 ranked, national title chasing supersquads upended at the hands of those dastardly villains, then failed to repay the favor as their rivals traipsed past to a controversial trophy of their own. One year later, Coop's (arguably) best squad exacted their revenge in punishing fashion. This year, they know what fate awaits. They will be powerless to stop it. Go Bucks. Beat Blue.

South Carolina 'Cocks @ Dabo Swinney's Tigers

Draper: This rivalry has taken a backseat of late, but the stakes this year are significantly higher than those being reported.  The Cocks enter Death Valley as a sneaky playoff contender while the Tigers continue winning, but it uninspiring fashion.  South Carolina has navigated a brutal SEC schedule and is poised to take the final leap.  I can't buy into the Tigers with their subpar showings all year.  Cocks take this huge contest on the road for an epic ending of a stellar season.  SC: 27--Dabo: 20
Hoying: Well, would you look at that. Everyone's least favorite little ol' squad has resurrected their season after getting absolutely plastered in their opener against Georgia. Except, you probably have noticed that they haven't been featured on Let's Go Bucks! since that one-sided season opener. The reason: the Tigers have faced the father of all unbalanced schedules in the ACC. Seven schools in that conference (including the Tigers) have a chance to finish with a winning record in league play this season. Dabo's boys played ONE of these, Louisville, and lost by double digits. There is a very good chance that this group is fraudulent to the point that Indiana looks like 2019 LSU. Carolina, for their part, has pieced together a couple quality wins, a couple quality losses, and a real puzzler of an egg laid against Lane Kiffin & Co. The Tigers feasting on cupcakes all year hasn't always been dispositive of an inability to deliver when it counts (see, e.g., 2019 Fiesta Bowl) but the victories haven't been consistently crushing enough this year. Cocky finishes out a respectable 9-3 season and starts crowing for the 12th Playoff spot. SC: 24--Dabo: 17
Schweinfurth: I've enjoyed watching Frank's kid coach the 'Cocks this year. It's been a fun story. Unfortunately, the Tiger Clown has a pretty decent squad. Tigers should win this one. SC: 17--Dabo: 31
Seeberg:  This contest has a little juice to it that has been lacking the last several years.  South Carolina has a solid D and a respectable offense, and it's basically the reverse for Dabo's crew.  The Tigers still, potentially, have the playoff to play for, while Carolina would only be playing spoilers.  But let's face it, that's enough reason to shoot their best shot in a rivalry tilt.  I can see this one going either way, and Dabo and Co. are good in their friendly confines, but they also haven't beaten anyone with a pulse this year, and Carolina has.  Go Cocks!  SC: 23--Dabo: 20

The Fighting Irish @ Southern California Trojans

Draper: The Irish have absolutely resurged after the horrific loss to Northern Illinois early this year, but they still have one final hurdle before the CFP.  The Trojans are the opposite as they were fantastic early in the season and faceplanted down the stretch.  The battle for the Jeweled Shillelagh has had a few epic clashes, but this isn't one.  I foresee the Irish coasting into the playoff (with a surprisingly easy schedule) while Riley and crew fade back to the beaches.  Irish: 31--SC: 17
Hoying: Boy, wasn't it great when both of these schools knocked off their SEC opponents back in week one? Of course, each of these had follow-up experiences they'd like to forget: the Irish losing to Northern Illinois, and the Trojans just losing a whole bunch, although no loss was quite as bad as NIU (Terps loss is close, though). USC was even gifted one of the easiest schedules in the B1G, with Penn State as their only top opponent (way to really give that one away in the second half, USC). ND has been doing their usual bit of beating up on everybody and nobody (no one cares that you beat West Point) but with quite a bit of style along the way. The Irish are way overdue for a reality check, but the Trojans' account is too far overdrawn. Irish:34--SC:17
Schweinfurth: B1G squads usually bust the Trojans pretty handily. The bad news, SC is not good. The boy out of  Wayne at ND has that squad's D rolling. I think this is close, because west coast travel. Irish win. ND: 24--SC: 17
Seeberg: Could Lincoln Riley be bought out for an obscene pile of cash after this one?  Signs point to...possibly?  In any event, the Irish keep putting that insane loss to NIU further and further in their rear view by the week and are playing excellent ball.  The wheels have all but fallen off out west for USC, not that nearly all of college football cares one way or the other.  It would take an earthquake to shift things enough this season for this one to go the Trojans' way.  Irish roll.  ND: 34--SC: 13

South Beach Hurricanes @ Syracuse Orange

Draper: Is that south beach squad worth anything? Sure, Ward has had plenty of jaw-dropping throws, but the defense is hot garbage.  I don't expect the Canes to hold up against elite talent.  Luckily, Syracuse, while quite good, isn't elite.  The OSU transfer, Kyle, has quietly had a really nice season for the Orange and can cap it off with a titanic upset.  Honestly, I wouldn't be shocked by an Orange win, but the Canes have a lot on the line.  A trip to the ACC title is too big of a prize to avoid.  Canes win the shootout and seek the Horsies for the CFP berth.  Canes: 38--Cuse: 31
Hoying: Speaking of unbalanced schedules in the ACC, the Orange has heretofore played one other ACC foe with a winning record in conference: Georgia Tech. The Canes also played GT (and lost) but also snuck by Louisville and Duke along the way. The Canes' QB, Ward, was in the discussion for college football's top individual award earlier this season (before Travis Hunter ran away with it), but it's actually the QB on the other sideline who's putting up the bigger stats this year. Honda no longer, Kyle has been free to sling it after leaving OSU, and the fate of his squad is usually wrapped up in yardage he's able to generate through the air. The Canes' defense hasn't been airtight, but they've been a veritable brick wall contrasted with what Syracuse has been allowing to opposing QBs. The U is still vulnerable, but the pressure points in this one are all wrong. Let's see what the Ponies can do next week. Canes:38--Cuse:27
Schweinfurth: Cane's QB Ward is pretty, pretty good. 'Cuse has a Honda. We've all seen how that works out in big contests. As I see it, the Honda throws a few picks and the Canes pull away. Canes: 35--Cuse: 14
Seeberg:  I will be exceedingly happy when I don't have to hear any soundbites by our worst QB in two decades Honda Accord next season.  Thinking about not playing in this contest?  To save it for what, a 6th round pick and to get cut by the Jaguars?  Ridiculous.  That's all anyone needs to know about this one.  Canes easy.  Canes: 31--Cuse: 13

Texas Longhorns @ Texas Agricultural Etc. Aggies

Draper: A colossal return to this rivalry after a surprising 13 year absence has the college football world on the edge.  The Longhorns are purportedly back after the resurgence of 2023, but the Aggies are still holding around the 9-10 win total year in and year out.  Jordan Hare was a real downer to this contest, but the stakes are still as high as ever with the victor set to faceoff with UGA in the SEC title. I honestly have no good grasp on this event as Texas has really avoided all contenders in the SEC (other than the Bulldogs) and haven't beaten anyone of note.  The Aggies have beaten both Tigers in the SEC, but have an analogous lackluster list of key wins.  Kyle Field is going to be insane, but I don't know if the Aggies have the athletes to contend.  I'll go with the Horns for now, but I don't feel great about it.  Horns: 20--Aggies: 17
Hoying: I have yet to be convinced that the Longhorns are elite. Blowing the doors off the Wolverines doesn't count for a lot at this point, and the Horns blew their only chance to knock off a top level opponent when Georgia ran UT out of Darrell K. Royal. But at least they've been taking care of business, which the Aggies can't say. Losing to South Carolina? OK, but try not to do it by 24. Losing to Auburn? That's otherwise reserved for Kentucky and the little sisters of the poor (but I repeat). QB Reed has turned into a wild card for the Aggies but the Horns didn't blink when the Sooners trotted out their dual-threat QB in a 34-3 loss. Aggies do just enough to cause Texas to perspire but the Longhorn defense is just too big an obstacle. Horns:24--Aggies:20
Schweinfurth: Vegas is begging everyone to take the Aggies. Here's the thing, they are overrated here. The 'Horns have shown that they are one of the best in the country this year. Are they back? Possibly, but a win here will surely help the narrative. Ewers or Payton' nephew at QB, it won't change the ending. Horns: 35--Aggies: 13
Seeberg:  Nice to see this rivarly renewed.  The Aggies despise Texas...Texas, I get the sense, doesn't really care, they focus on the Sooners.  While its true that Texas avoided the brunt of the SEC (and was soundly beaten by the only good squad they faced in Georgia), they have been getting better under the radar.  Buckeye transfer Quinn Ewers (see how silly that sounds?  Now stop doing it for Caleb Downs, sheesh) hasn't thrown a pick since their bye week.  Few errors coupled with a solid defense is a good recipe for wins, even against the Aggies who actually have a pulse.  Longhorns pull away late.  Horns: 31--Aggies: 20

Kansas State Wildcats @ Iowa State Cyclones

Draper: Ranch-ageddon returns and the Clones seek their first 10 win season...EVER.  The Big 12 has turned into 'spin the wheel' so who really knows what to expect.  Will has left the Wildcats in a tough spot while Iowa State hoping to sneak into the CFP.  The wheel for now, lands on the Clones but there isn't any result that would surprise.  SEND IN THE CLOOONES! KSU: 24--ISU: 27
Hoying: Every conference entered this weekend with a few scenarios for how their conference title showdown would be set. Ohio State's in with a win, otherwise it's Indiana or Penn State vs. Oregon. The winner of the Lone Star Showdown plays Georgia. Tulane vs. Land Navy was already set, etc., etc. Every conference, that is, except the Big 12, where a whopping NINE schools enter this week with hopes of playing next Saturday in Jerryworld, and NONE controls its own destiny. And how do the scenarios for those nine schools play out? *Nate Bargatze George Washington voice* "Nobody knows." What I do know is this is the only ranked Big 12 feature of the week, although not the only one with two schools still alive in the title hunt. As for the squads at hand, good luck trying to find an edge in this one, or any other in the Big 12 while you're at it. Kansas State appeared to be cruising toward a top two finish in conference before faceplanting against awful Houston a few weeks ago thanks to an inconsistent offense. Iowa State is better at getting a solid 25-30 points every week, and that's probably enough to get the job done here.  KSU:23-ISU:27
Schweinfurth: The Big 12 is a trash receptacle fire. Does anyone actually want to win the conference? I really can't get a read on any of these guys. I think I'll flip a coin on this once because, honestly, I have no clue. KSU: 20--ISU: 21
Seeberg:  Oh yeah, the Big 12 has ranked squads, too!  All down in the teens or lower, but a lot all bunched up in that range.  Didn't expect a lot out of the Cyclones this season, they have pleasantly surprised.  The Wildcats (thanks for the QB!) are about where I figured, except a lousy loss against Houston (unless it's basketball).  There are roughly 250,000 possible scenarios for the conference title tilt, so why not inject another touch of chaos??  Wildcats late.  KSU: 27--ISU: 23

That School Up North @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: Expect the Scarlet and Gray to be out for blood.  The hope is that there won't be an abundance of pressing by the Bucks.  While urgency is clearly there, this should be won with the excess talent on the good side of the rivalry.  TSUN just doesn't have the horses on offense to keep up. The Bucks would be wrong to ignore the defensive talent of the blue, but if this turns into a battle of sheer talent, it could turn into a rout.  Nothing is taken for for granted, but I expect 5 years of pain to be exorcised in these 3 hours.  Expect the rushing attack to work to the edge with the DT talent of TSUN, while Will continues his excellence in the short and in-between passing attack.  JJ and Egbuka will shine as the Bucks FINALLY get it done.  Go Bucks! Beat Blue! TSUN: 10--OSU: 38
Hoying: How in his head is Ryan Day? John Cooper, despite being an otherwise top-level coach, allowed a couple of unfortunate decisions in closing seconds of these rivalry clashes to rattle his decisions. Hence 1995-1997. Day has been saying the right things this week but he's looked...tight...as well. This isn't anything new, he was tight for Penn State week, too, but gone is the easygoing "we're definitely going to win" countenance we saw for Indiana week. On paper, there's no reason for Ohio State to lose this year. The Wolverine offense doesn't work, 50 points against Northwestern notwithstanding. There is no hint of a passing attack, the rushing attack has been noticeably worse than Ohio State's all year, and the defense is only OK, especially if star CB Will Johnson (who probably should have been on the cover of EACFB 25 instead of The Don) doesn't play. But the Wolverines have been steadily getting better over the last few weeks. They put up a fight against Oregon and nearly knocked off Indiana on the road before doing...that...last week. But as the folks doing Wolverine Day After Sunday up at Buckeye Huddle have been saying all year, there's a clear path to beating these guys: just don't beat yourself. Don't allow their wrecking-ball interior D line to put you behind the sticks, or worse, force turnovers. Don't fall for any garbage that this stuck-in-first-gear offense tries to heave onto the field; bend but don't break is probably a good enough plan to win this week if the resurgent pass rush inexplicably isn't working. IF the offense can be patient and give what the Wolverine defense allows, Sonic Henderson & Knuckles Judkins can be the ones wearing down the Corn and Blue front for a change. Just don't let a "Have to Win" turn into a "Can't Afford to Lose". TSUN:9 (they do have a good kicker)--OSU:38
Schweinfurth: I have been waiting for this one for a long, long while. I want blood. The Buckeyes want blood. Ryan Day wants to hang 100 on these a-holes. This is the year for a reckoning. No sign stealing. No d-bag QB who defends cheating to the ends of the earth. This is about Ohio State going out and executing. Will Howard has stepped forward with his progress and leadership. I wasn't sure what the Bucks were getting when he transferred, but it's been a great ride. He's going into this one ten feet tall and bulletproof. I appreciate the after action fire last week. Channel it and bring it again. TTUN cant' throw the ball to save their lives. You know what they are going to do. The defense has been building to this since the Oregon loss. Leave everything on the field. A ton of guys returned for this ONE. Win for those who returned. The debt is due. Pay up and get that ass whooped on Saturday Sharone. TSUN: 10--OSU: 52
Seeberg:  FINALLY.  Anyone reading this blog knows what this one is all about this year.  It took a colossal cheating scandal and OSU's worst QB since Joe B. to get TTUN three wins.  And a natty. *throws up*.  The age old question "what would you give up to win a title?"  has been answered.  Any shred of dignity, half the coaching staff, and a gargantuan wave of sanctions soon.  This edition of the TTUN squad is 6-5 and could just as easily be 4-7 thanks to fortunate calls in wins over the Gophers and USC.  Their offense is 128th out of 134 units.  The forward pass to TTUN would be like showing an ancient Egyptian an iPhone.  Utterly perplexing and bewildering.  Still, it's a rivalry.  It's THE rivalry, and weird sh** happens.  A lot.  Shawn Springs slipping still haunts children of the 90s *reluctantly raises hand*.  How does a squad with the best collegiate OL ever AND the Heisey trophy winner at RB AND the Biletnikoff winner lose anything EVER?  John Cooper, I await your answer.  This one canNOT be lost by the scarlet and gray under any conditions whatsoever.  IF we start slow and IF we stubbornly try to run between the tackles and IF a bag of tricks/Igbinosun penalties gets their lousy offense a little footing, the Shoe will get terrifyingly nervous.  For the love of God START FAST, keep the crowd engaged, and the Wolverines will buckle.  As lucky as they have been in a couple wins this season, I sincerely hope that luck has run out, and they can, to quote the original Gladiator (with edits for language) "crawl back down that craphole where they once dwelled".  Paraphrasing is close enough.  Go Bucks.  TSUN: 13--OSU: 27

Upset Special
Draper: Auburn over High Tide
Hoying: Georgia Tech over Georgia
Schweinfurth: Vanderbilt over Tennessee
Seeberg:  Houston over BYU

Week 13: Indiana Burial Ground

Standings:

1.) Draper 33-14 (1-11 upset)
2.) Hoying 31-16 (3-9 upset)
2.) Seeberg 31-16 (3-9 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 31-16 (1-11 upset)

As we all suspected, late November arrives with the Buckeyes facing their third giant hurdle of the season. Teams are entering the Thunderdome across the nation, from the Big 12, to a non-Power 4 battle, to the Big Ten showdown right in our backyard. Only one can leave each with their Playoff dreams fully intact. Let's get to shattering.

Brigham Young Cougars @ Arizona State Sun Devils

Draper: A sneaky game in the Big12 race for a spot in the Championship Game.  BYU was living on borrowed time, but couldn't seal the deal last week (simply because of the glorious Jayhawk helmets).  Arizona State is a team I have absolutely no idea what to do with. The schedule is hot garbage, but they keep winning (see every Big 12 team).  The Cougars are able to move the ball on offense and can strike quickly.  I just think the Sun Devils are a year ahead of schedule.  I'm with the Cougs booking the trip to the title game.  BYU: 24--ASU: 21
Hoying: Much like their NFL mirror, the Steelers, BYU finally got their comeuppance this week at the hands of an unlikely opponent. All dreams of an at-large bid to the CFP are dead, in part because this week’s ranking showed that they likely would’ve careened down the rankings even if their first loss had come in the Big 12 Championship. And speaking of, it’s no longer a virtual lock that the Cougs will represent the Big 12 at Jerryworld on December 7, because another surprise team, Arizona State, is hot on their heels. BYU can still clinch a berth with a win on Saturday, but now that everyone can see that the emperor has no clothes, I’m not sure the Sun Devils are going to be intimidated. ASU still has one of the nation’s leading rushers in Cam Skattebo (dop dop dop yes yes), and the Cougs have been vulnerable on the ground. Let the freefall continue. BYU: 20—ASU: 24
Schweinfurth: BYU finally didn't escape last week and opened the door for the Buffs. Well, that makes things interesting in the Big 12. The Cougars are still a decent team and I can't see them dropping two in a row. BYU: 21--ASU: 17
Seeberg:  Well, the Sun Devils certainly answered the bell last week. The Cougars…not so much. I still think BYU is the slightly better team but ASU plays a ton of close games and generally ends up on the winning side. At home, with experience closing out close games, I think the Sun Devils keep rolling. BYU: 24—ASU: 27

Army Black Knights @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Draper: An Army win here might be the biggest one since 1776 (and it would cause almost as much upheaval).  Regardless, the Knights are a good team, but the Irish likely have too much talent.  The triple option is just the worst to prepare for, but Freeman should be able to coach the Domers up to get it done...but Army is going to muck it up.  Look for them to employ Northwestern's strategy from last week (I see Seeberg said the same thing, but I didn't copy it!) in bleeding the clock forever.  Sadly, I think the clock might strike midnight on the Knights as the CFP committee breaths a huge sigh of relief.  Army: 13--ND: 27
Hoying: OK, so they can’t really throw the ball effectively. And it’s hard to know how good they really are since they just keep blowing out mid teams week after week. But enough about Notre Dame…The Black Knights were the only team in the country that never trailed in any game before North Texas managed to score a FG on their opening drive in Army’s last outing. That generally puts the Knights' opponents in a really bad position, as Army can basically spend the rest of the game running clock and running the rock while their opponents desperately flail to keep up. Now, Notre Dame doesn’t boast an elite offense (especially QB Riley Leonard, who sucks), but they do have one of the nation’s top defenses…against the pass. They have been a bit vulnerable to rushing attacks from Northern Illinois and, um, Navy. But the Irish didn’t give up 17 points to either. Heck, they’ve only given up 17 points once this season, against Louisville. You really think that Army, with their plodding triple option attack, is going to be able to score against this stiff Irish front? Navy tried it and got the screen doors blown off their submarines. Playing a triple option team sucks, but when you face it the second time, you have a better idea of what to expect. The Irish keep rolling toward a primetime Playoff date in South Bend. Army: 17—ND: 31
Schweinfurth: I would love to see Army stay undefeated into the Navy game. It's such a great story and great for the sport, especially in the NIL world. With that said, Army can't match the talent on the Irish roster.  The triple option always gives teams issues, but the Domers handled Navy with relative ease. I fear more of the same here. Army: 21--ND: 34
Seeberg:  Harkening back to the days of yore with this top 20 contest. Army is a better version of Navy this year, but the golden domers had little trouble with the triple option last month. Other than a close game against Louisville, Freeman and Co. have been rolling opponents since that inexplicable loss to middle-of-the-road MAC opponent in NIU. Army will, of course, try to shorten the game (a la Northwestern last week), but I just don’t think they have the horses to hang for 4 quarters. Army: 17—ND: 35

Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions @ Minnesota Golden Gophers

Draper: This game could be a little spicy.  PJ Fleck pulls out random upsets every year (see USC this year).  Don't get me wrong, I don't think Minnesota is a very good team, but weird things happen all the time.  PSU is also very flighty (see their game vs. USC).  While this is a nice 'almost upset' and it could happen, Drew Allar should be able to score enough while Abdul Carter holds the Gopher attack down.  No upset, but it's close for a while.  PSU: 27--Minn: 17
Hoying: The public demands more Minnesota content, and we aim to please. The Big Ten is essentially a 3-tier conference this year: (1) the four contenders (Oregon, Indiana, Ohio State, and Penn State) at the top, (2) Purdue at the bottom, and (3) a gross miasma of the remaining thirteen teams in the middle. So the gravy train’s over, Nittany Lions, you got your free win against the Boilermakers last week, now it’s time to step back into the muck. Like all miasma teams, Minnesota is having a completely inexplicable season, completing the L.A. sweep and knocking off Illinois in Champaign but fresh off a loss to Rutgers. The Gophers boast an excellent +12 turnover margin on the year but that’s about all in the way of superlatives for these guys. As for Penn State, you know them, you pity them, they’re the same good-to-great team that eats pieces of crap for breakfast that they’ve been for the last 8 seasons. The Lions haven’t lost to an unranked team (or any team ranked lower than 12) since 2021’s delightful 9OT romp against Illinois. They’re so close to their first Playoff berth that they can taste it. Free to kill Gophers at will. PSU: 27—Minn: 13
Schweinfurth: Let's keep this one simple. Penn State isn't playing TTUN or Ohio State. That means the Franklin Brain Cramp isn't in effect. I respect what PJ Fleck is doing at Minnesota, but it's not enough against a team like this. The Lions should win this without too much drama. PSU: 35--Minn: 17
Seeberg:  Not a lot of great upsets to try to pick on the board this week. Thought about this one til I realized we were actually picking it. The Gophers are cobbling together another respectable season under PJ Fleck; however, it feels like that program is still a step or two away from what its peak could be: challenging the Iowas and Wisconsins of the world for the best of the 2nd tier conference schools. Still, they’ve had 2 weeks of prep for this one and Penn State’s offense has been underwhelming all year despite gobs of talent. It should be competitive for awhile, but they aren’t ranked, so Franklin shouldn’t, in theory, crap the bed. Lions pull away late. PSU: 31—Minn: 17

Indiana Hoosiers @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: OSU finally gets a top 5 matchup at home.  Say what you will about the B1G schedules, but OSU got the raw end with games @Oregon, @PSU, and vs. IU (while they all avoid each other)....but you don't want it any other way.  Indiana is the shocker of the season and they are legit good.  Curt Cignetti can already print the T-shirts for Coach of the Year, but this Buckeye team will have something to say about whether this IU team goes down as the greatest IU team of all time or one of the greatest college football stories of all time.  2 major factors in the game: can the re-retooled OSU Oline step up to the plate once more and run the dang ball and can the OSU secondary limit Kurtis Rourke? I think yes and maybe.  I have strong faith that the Buckeye offense will go to work as the Hoosier defense hasn't seen a team near this level of offensive efficiency.  Regarding the secondary, it's going to need help from the pass rush (please) and the crowd.  Utilize the 12th man and we'll be just fine.  I expect to see the return of Emeka, another ho-hum TD by Smith, and 150+ on the ground.  Bucks take 2 of 3 vs. top 5 teams, continue the longest consecutive win streak, and turn eyes to TTUN.  IU: 17--OSU: 34
Hoying: Finally, it’s arrived. The Super Bowl, for Indiana at least. For the Buckeyes, it’s Saturday. The Hoosiers are putting together a season every bit as magical as their Big Ten Championship years of 1945 and 1967. Only problem is, they didn’t play Ohio State either of those years. The Buckeyes crushed Indiana’s dreams in 2020 and they’re primed to do it again. Even with both of OSU’s star transfers on the offensive line sidelined for the season, and with Indiana’s Colorado-esque collection of portal hoppers at full strength, the Hoosiers simply aren’t good enough to just line up across from Ohio State and beat them strength-on-strength. They’re like the plucky cream (and crimson) of the G5 crop, ready to jump up and snakebite whoever is unlucky enough to be circled on the calendar, but with (low-end) Big Ten talent backing it up. The Buckeyes saw a few wrinkles from Oregon that the Ducks had been safely keeping in their pockets during their ho-hum early season buildup, and I expect the Hoosiers to do the same, especially with an open date last week to really give them a chance to tailor their gameplan to the Bucks. The bullcrap detectors better be finely tuned this week, lest the Hoosiers take advantage of Ohio State’s usual early-game sleepiness, put up a surprising early lead, and then try to white knuckle out the remaining 45-50 minutes before the patented Third Quarter Death Machine can set right what once went wrong. But Indiana doesn’t have Oregon’s talent. They don’t have Penn State’s home field advantage (or talent). And I don’t expect Will Howard to be minus 14 points in the turnover game this week. As long as the new-look interior line (now with Center Classic) can hold up long enough for Howard to find his targets downfield, the Bucks should be able to outpace whatever Indiana can throw at them. On to the game that matters. IU: 17—OSU: 28
Schweinfurth: Welcome to the big show, Indiana. Curt Cignetti has done an amazing job this year by raising the Hoosiers from the depths of perennial suck. However, he kicked the hornets' nest. You can believe his comments about Ohio State have been shown in the Woody on a loop. He is also fighting against history here. The last time Indiana rolled into Ohio Stadium as a top ten team, the Fully Extended Penix got beat handily until the weirdness of 2020 let them back in. Yes, the Bucks lost Seth McLaughlin, but I have faith Chip Kelly and company can scheme around the loss. Having Will Howard's experience will be a big help as well. I fully expect some BS back throw catches by Indiana, because that's what they do. However, the Hoosiers just don't have the talent and horses to hold on. I expect a close game at half with the Bucks pulling away late. IU: 20--OSU: 35
Seeberg:  Ah yes, the day has finally arrived! The huge late November matchups between two top-5 opponents in neighboring states. The scarlet and gray, the maize and…wait, hang on, I’m being told it’s Indiana??? The only time this game has ever been a top 5 matchup was in NCAA Football 2004 when I chose to bring IU out of the ashes as my dynasty. 39 natties in 60 years. Clearly I spent my free time in the dorms wisely. Regardless, the Hoosiers are here, they haven’t lost, and despite a lousy schedule, they have largely looked the part of a world beater. It’s just tough to get past the name on the uniform. In Columbus, the Seth McLaughlin news hit hard as OSU will have to roll out its 5th different O-line configuration in 11 games. It’s as if the Browns O-line curse is contagious. The good news is that IU wants to score and likely won’t try to grind the game to a halt like NW. The bad news is that it will be harder for our offense to stay on the field with the depleted line. Also- why aren’t we throwing to Emeka any more? 9 catches in the last 4 games. He had 40 in the first 6. Down the stretch I’d really like to see him get 5+ catches each game. I do believe our line can still wear IU down over four quarters but make no mistake: this game will be at least a 3-quarter contest and quite possibly all four. The bonus week of prep for IU coupled with OSU’s painfully slow starts almost ensure it. TTUN made some great halftime adjustments and held the Hoosiers to less than 50 yards in the second half. I expect similar adjusting and domination and the Bucks should pull away a bit late. IU: 20-–OSU: 31

Upset Special
Draper: UF over Ole Miss
Hoying: Utah over Iowa State
Schweinfurth: Virginia over SMU
Seeberg: Kentucky over Texas 

Week 12: Double Your Pleasure, Double Your Fun

Standings:

1.) Draper 30-13 (1-10 upset)
2.) Hoying 29-14 (3-8 upset)
3.) Seeberg 28-15 (3-8 upset)
3.) Schweinfurth 28-15 (1-10 upset)

For the last time this season, there's no top-5 victory, gold pants, conference championship, or Playoff advancement on the line when the Buckeyes play the Wildcats, but for a true championship contender, the sweet taste of victory is its own motivation. The taste is gonna move ya. And while the Buckeyes' Week 12 foe may lack the allure of the rest of Buckeyes' remaining opponents-to-be, the unique surroundings may give what would be an otherwise ho-hum week some more long lasting freshness. With essentially no room for error for the Buckeyes to extend their pre-Playoff season with a berth in the first division-less Big Ten Championship, here's to a Buckeye victory to make it last a little longer. 

Tennessee Volunteers @ Georgia Bulldogs

Draper: This is the only good game surrounded by stinkers (which means watch out everyone).  UGA is just wearing down as the season goes on with top team after top team, but the Vols keep winning against lackluster competition.  The win over Bama is certainly worth mentioning, but that game feels like an eternity ago (and they were lucky with some opportune turnovers).  The Dawgs continue to stumble under the "leadership" of mediocre Carson Beck, but they do return to Sanford this week.  There's a lot of love for the orange and a lot of doubt for the black and red, but I have a feeling this is a game for the Bulldogs to flex and act like they won another game against a real opponent (although....).  UGA has more talent and they cruise at home.  Let's just hope they get caught speeding and not 'being completely stupid' when seeing a friend from their youth. UT: 17--UGA: 30

Hoying: Soooo, maybe I put a little too much confidence in the Dawgs last week. Carson Beck continues to stink up the field on a weekly basis, and Georgia still has no running game to speak of, either. That's bad news as the Bulldogs prepare to face what may be the nation's top defense this Saturday. Tennessee's not exactly lighting the world on fire on offense, either, but when you can count on a few headscratching turnovers served up by UGA each week, a few short fields can do wonders for an anemic attack. That should be enough for 11th-hour reinstated QB Nico Iamaleava to put just enough points up on the board to take Georgia from a Playoff bubble team to out of the picture. It'll be a bitter pill to swallow, especially if the Texas team the Bulldogs trounced in Austin ends up riding a significantly easier schedule to an SEC Championship Game berth, but the great teams can overcome tough schedules. The Dawgs just don't have it this year. UT: 16--UGA: 10

Schweinfurth: In a normal year, I would jump up and say, "Georgia is gonna wreck the Vols." But this year has been wild down south. Part of the problem is that Carson Beck can't remember which team he is on and throwing picks left and right. If Beck can actually figure this out Georgia should win. I feel like I have picked all of Georgia's games wrong, so why stop now? My gut says Georgia close but who knows. UT: 24--UGA: 27
Seeberg:  Will the real Georgia please stand up? Are they the team that bludgeoned the Longhorns or the team with two losses, a narrow escape against Kentucky, and a QB with 8 picks the last 4 games? The jury is still out on arguably the most talented team in all the land. However, the jury is also out on whether Nico will play for the Vols. Word is he’s practiced all week but hasn’t yet cleared concussion protocol. Either way, I expect “good Georgia” this week with their backs against the wall. Vols’ defense keeps it close, but UGA rarely loses between the hedges. UT: 13—UGA: 24

Missouri Tigers @ South Carolina Gamecocks

Draper: I've said it before and I'll say it again...I don't believe this Mizzou team has it.  South Carolina has roared back into the conversation with a few big wins (taking down Vandy in Nashville is a big one), and I think that continues here in Williams Brice under the Sandstorm.  Eli Drinkowitz acted like they were "in the playoff conversation" after OU vomited all over the field in the final 2 minutes. Bad news....the dream stops here.  Mizzou: 10--SC: 23

Hoying: The thing about teams begging to get tagged is that eventually they find an opponent willing to oblige. Miami found that out the hard way against Georgia Tech last week. Missouri has been caught a couple of times already this season (with staggeringly lopsided results), but they got back to their skating ways last week, overcoming a late defensive score by OU to tie up the game and then add a defensive TD of their own. That's not going to cut it against a South Carolina team that beat the hell out of the Texas A&M squad that throttled Missouri a few weeks ago. The Tigers haven't beaten any of the good teams they've played this year, and they've looked consistently bad, win or lose. A third loss here will mercifully remove them from even the fringes of the Playoff discussion. Mizzou: 20--SC: 31

Schweinfurth: Mizzou has really fallen off this year. SCAR has actually looked pretty competent. Let's go with the Gamecocks. Mizzou: 13--SC: 35
Seeberg: Ah yes, the 2024 edition of “let’s rank second tier SEC teams so other teams get a quality win”. Both teams play close games with solid defense and this one should be no different. First to 20 wins! Look for the Gamecocks’ D-line to force a turnover or two to help their offense with short fields. Mizzou: 13—SC: 20

Arizona State Sun Devils @ Kansas State Wildcats

Draper: Does anyone really care about the Big 12 this year? I honestly have no take on this game. KSU looked to be a front runner in the Big 12, but has quickly fell off the map.  The Sun Devils have sneakily hung around in the Big 12 conversation, but...I don't really care.  I'll lean on the preseason priors and the home team for now.  ASU: 17--KSU: 24

Hoying: You thought unbalanced schedules were a problem in the Big Ten and the SEC, with Ohio State and Georgia facing murderer's rows while other top teams just skate by? Try this one on for size: Kansas State and Arizona State are tied for third place in the Big 12. Kansas State has to face first place BYU, second place Colorado, and fellow third place teams Iowa State and West Virginia. The only one of these teams that appears on ASU's schedule is BYU. At least the Sun Devils have a win over a real live SEC team. Too bad it was Mississippi State. Despite the quality of opposition these two have faced, they have had very similar seasons. KSU has been a bit stiffer on defense but both are just OK on offense. Avery Johnson hasn't been the upgrade over Will Howard that the Wildcat faithful were hoping for at QB, but KSU isn't as bad as they looked in the fourth quarter against Houston in their last outing. They should be just good enough to outduel the Sun Devils at home. ASU: 24--KSU: 27

Schweinfurth: I saw this and forgot the Pac-12 wasn't a thing. Let me be honest, I know NOTHING about either team. I assume K-State is better, just because I haven't heard anyone mention the Sun Devils in a while. ASU: 17--KSU: 28
Seeberg: I confess: I had 0 idea the sun devils were 7-2. Five of their 7 wins are by one possession: they are the anti-Nebraska. One win was even over a then-ranked Utah before their free fall. Traveling to K-State may be a different experience. The Wildcats no longer control their destiny after an upset loss to Houston and I think they will take their frustrations out on ASU. The slightly-further-west purple Wildcats roll. ASU: 20—KSU: 38

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Northwestern Wildcats
Draper: The Buckeyes enter the Friendly Confines of Wrigley Field for a match with the vaunted Wildcats in a game that could easily be a trap....but Northwestern just isn't any good.  This whole experience is pretty dumb and gimmicky, but the Bucks need to just focus on taking care of business, stay healthy, and prepare for the final 2 weeks of the regular season.  Northwestern struggles in pass defense, but I expect a healthy dose of Smash and Dash.  Let's continue to see growth in the patchwork Oline as Howard has a pedestrian 250 and 2 through the air (and maybe 1 on the ground).  Expect to see Brown and Sayin in the closing quarter and we turn our eyes toward top 5 (?) Indiana and TTUN.  OSU: 42--NW: 10
Hoying: Last week was a great example of what happens when a title contender steps on the gas against a team with zero chance of beating them. This week the probability is more like 5%, but that's only because, unlike Purdue, Northwestern has something resembling a defense. So I guess the worst case scenario is something like the 2020 Big Ten Championship, when Ohio State kept banging their heads against the wall trying to pad Justin Fields's Heisman campaign stats one last time before finally acknowledging that the easy button to victory was running the damn ball. This year's Northwestern team is more vulnerable through the air, and thankfully there aren't any gale force winds in the forecast to force Ohio State's offense to become "CJ Stroud left, CJ Stroud right." Also, Northwestern's ostensible run defense may be a bit of a mirage, as they've played plenty of teams that just can't run the ball. Indiana, Wisconsin, and Iowa were all able to find some running room, so there's no reason the Buckeye rushing attack can't do the same barring the return of the Nebraska game plan (and offensive line execution). As long as the Buckeyes aren't dazzled by the shiny new rustbucket of a stadium venue, and their playmakers don't crash into any brick walls when stepping off the field of play, there's no reason this one has to be close. Go back and watch highlights of Dwayne Haskins. The table is set for Will Howard to feast if he's of a mind to. OSU: 42--NW: 3
Schweinfurth: The Silver Bullets are on a roll. Over 130 minutes of game time not allowing an offensive TD. Impressive. They even played with Knowles' 3-4 look last week. While it had mixed results, I'm pretty sure Sawyer/JTT and company weren't on the field when they ran it. Interesting wrinkle. Let's see if they run it back. I really can't see Northwestern doing much on offense. Northwestern is pretty good against the run this year, so let's see tons of Carnell, JJ, and Emeka. Get up big early and get the starters out. OSU: 52--NW: 6
Seeberg:  I am looking out my hotel window on Clark St at Wrigley Field as I type this. Tons of Buckeye fans were in the lobby. O-H-I-O chants have already been heard out in the street. Suffice it to say this Northwestern “home” game will be nothing of the sort. Certainly hope the turf holds up, because injuries should be the only thing slowing the Buckeyes down. NW does have a top 20 rush defense, yet somehow Purdue took them to OT while only running it for a whopping 47 yards on 23 carries. In short, I think the ground game will take awhile to get some traction but I’d love to see the big boys up front wear the Wildcats down in the second half. NW had two weeks to prep for this one so some new/tweaked things may keep it interesting for a bit, but the Bucks should pull away by the 4th. Spread is 28.5, late cover it is! OSU: 45–NW: 10

Upset Special
Draper: Boston College over SMU
Hoying: Utah over Colorado
Schweinfurth: Wisconsin over Orgeon
Seeberg: Arkansas over Texas