Week 17: Cotton Cane-dy

Standings:

1.) Hoying 51-17 (2-12 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 50-18 (0-14 upset)
3.) Seeberg 46-22 (4-10 upset)
4.) Draper 45-23 (2-12 upset)

With the departure of the stupid auto-byes for garbage conference champions, the 2025-26 CFP can look forward to a quarterfinal round largely devoid of chump teams (your mileage may vary on the Rose and Cotton Bowls). Will the Big Ten put a record 3 teams into the semifinals? Or will we see continued departures from the total chalk that dominated the inaugural 12-team tourney?

THURSDAY, JANUARY 1

Orange Bowl: Oregon Ducks vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders

Draper: I'm really interested to see how this one turns out.  The analytics have favored the Ducks all year while I've faded them (to my detriment), but I also haven't felt that Tech was a juggernaut either.  I could see either outcome here as both teams were built on all the money.  The Red Raiders have been undervalued most of the year due to weaker competition, but the wins over BYU (both of them) and Utah are nothing to sneeze at.  Oregon's crowning achievement was beating USC at home....which is nice, but nothing to phone home about.  Regardless, I'm really torn. The analytics literally have this as a coin flip so....I'll keep fading the Ducks.  Why not? Guns up.  OU:17--TT:20

Hoying: Both of these teams have been terrific on both sides of the ball this year, but everyone's eyes are on the high flying Duck offense against the Texas Tech stone wall led by the best D-line money can buy. Both have excelled all season; which team has proven it can execute against decent competition? TTU faced some real live offenses in Utah and BYU and dispatched them with relative ease, which Oregon was able to pile on against the likes of USC and Penn State. Where will the dam break in this one? Oregon would love to take the game out of Dante Moore's hands. Not that they don't trust him, but the Ducks have preferred to lean heavily on their ground game this year, with excellent results. That is, except against Indiana, when Oregon ran for a paltry 108 yards and Moore threw 2 interceptions trying to catch up with IU. Tech's run D is like a rock, which means that Moore is going to have to make some plays to win this one. And that's bad news for the Ducks, as nobody is causing havoc to the QB this season like Texas Tech, leading the nation in turnovers and finishing in the top 10 in sacks. I mistrust defenses that build their identity on big plays but the Tech D is so sound otherwise that I don't think it really limits them. And the Red Raider offense has been great as well except when QB Behren Morton was out against Arizona State. That may be indicative of a depth issue, but if there's one Playoff game where depth shouldn't be a problem, it's the first one, which bodes ill for Oregon. A lot of new money (like, newer than Oregon) is going to be appearing in the semifinals this year. OU: 20--TTU: 24

Schweinfurth: Oregon's run game has been a problem for teams this year. They are fast and physical. Texas Tech has one of the best defenses, but Indiana had trouble with this run game as well. This is the Red Raiders' first go at this and I expect some jitters. Oregon has been there and Lanning seems to be a step ahead. I expect Oregon to move on here. OU: 24--TTU: 17
Seeberg: This one is an intriguing matchup. This season there are only 5 teams that I think are capable of winning it all, and these two are in that group. Texas Tech has basically done in one season--with oil instead of swoosh money--what Oregon has done the last 20 years; throw insane resources at the college football program and voila! Instant contender. The problem now becomes, which team do you trust? The one that's never been there before, or the one that gets there and then gets run out of the stadium by the Buckeyes? IU exposed Dante Moore a bit, not all that dissimilar to how the Hoosiers confused Sayin in the B1G title game. The Red Raiders have an excellent defense as well, but they don't scheme it up quite as well as Cignetti's crew. I also don't expect Morton to put up 30 like Mendoza did. It will stay relatively low scoring (take the under kids!), but a few more plays by Moore and his weapons will make the difference. The Red Raiders' color scheme is just different enough from scarlet and gray to see Oregon through the semis. OU: 23--TTU: 13

Rose Bowl: Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Indiana Hoosiers

Draper: I'm going to do it.  I just can't believe in #1 Indiana.  On paper, this should be a bloodbath.  Curt Cignetti is a psycho (which is a compliment in college football coaching circles), Mendoza is a baller (if not the biggest nerd on the planet), and that defense is straight nasty.  But.  Bama is Bama.  While they are a shell of what they were with Saban, I saw some of the hitting in the SEC championship and it was brutal.  There's really no reason for Bama to be on the same field against the Goliath of the Hoosiers...but college football is weird.  IU goes to the Rose Bowl for the first time since the LBJ administration, and, while they've surmounted all the obstacles (beat OSU: check, win the B1G: check, win a freaking Heisman: check), I feel like they're due for a regression.  Bama was getting spanked early vs. the Sooners, but rose from the ashes to take a convincing win.  The Hoosiers are WAY better, but Bama is inevitable.  Give me the Tide to end the super season for the boys from Bloomington.  Bama: 24--IU: 20

Hoying: Sometimes you watch a back and forth gridiron slugfest and walk away marveling at the clash of the titans you just witnessed (kraken release optional). And sometimes you're just thankful that you got to witness another modern episode of the Three Stooges. This year's Playoff opener was very much the latter. After getting obliterated by Georgia in the SEC Championship, Alabama managed to sneak into the CFP ahead of the much, much better Notre Dame despite handing in possibly the single worst performance of any Playoff team as their closing statement, finishing off a stretch run of miraculously escaping South Carolina, phoning in a win over LSU, losing to Oklahoma, and darn near losing to the incompetence incarnate Auburn Tigers. And the trend continued into the Playoff...for about a quarter and a half, before Oklahoma's wide receivers (and punter) forgot how to catch. I know Bama fans are hoping that all that talent (and program mystique generated by Saban) will rise up and save them at some point, but until I see some signs of life from the Tide, they're just another sleeping Snorlax in a world with no Poké Flutes. Indiana has been the real deal all season, and while they weren't perfect against Ohio State, a B effort from the Hoosiers would be more than enough to move on to a much tougher opponent in the semifinals. Bama: 10--IU: 24

Schweinfurth: Bama can't run the ball, and probably should have lost if it weren't for Playoff Oklahoma. Indiana is going to tee off on Ty Simpson. I really don't see how this goes any other way. I have not been very impressed by Bama this year. Indiana can, and will move the ball decently here. This isn't Saban's Bama. The only pause I would give is Indiana gets into "happy to be here mode" with the Rose Bowl. Even then, the Hoosiers may just be too much. Bama: 9--IU: 21
Seeberg: Ah yes, the SEC-Big 10 heavyweight tilt we all antic…hang on, being told that it’s actually Indiana in the Rose Bowl and not Ohio State, or Penn State or, well you get the idea.  Indiana may legitimately be becoming a college football heavyweight under Cignetti- as long as he manages to hit on a transfer QB every year.  Bama, meanwhile, may be close to fading from heavyweight status as the talks were strong about DeBoer leaving altogether if they didn’t beat the Sooners last week.  It’s like Bama fans forget they were lousy for 15 years before Saban arrived (WOW does that sound like a fanbase to the north we all know and hate).  Pretty sure the Crimson Tide faithful would wipe Mike Shula off Wikipedia if any of them knew how to use a computer.  At any rate, DeBoer is, I believe, an excellent coach, but the mystifying lack of a run game this year has cost Bama multiple times, and will likely do so again.  Bama faithful are relying on the “Jimmys and the Joes” instead of the Xs and Os to win this one, but even that argument doesn’t hold much weight:  IU has 5 prospects projected in the first four rounds next April, including a Heisman QB, 2 day two WRs and a sticky cover corner (Jeremiah notwithstanding).  The Buckeyes didn’t run it well against IU, and Bama can’t run it well against anyone.  The Hoosiers’ defense is just too good to be beaten by a one-dimensional offense, and with this game the conference just might have THREE teams in the CFP semis.  Someone keep a defibrillator near Finebaum.  IU: 24—Bama: 13

Sugar Bowl: Mississippi Rebels vs. Georgia Bulldogs

Draper: Another game in which I have no freaking clue what is going to happen.  Ole Miss could be an absolute shell after they were spurned by Kiffin; or they could play with an unmatched fire of hatred a la OSU last year.  UGA seems to be evolving into their final form, but does anyone really trust Gunner Stockton? Kewan Lacy is a great back that could hit some explosives and make it interesting, but the Dawgs seem on a collision course in the semis with....someone (find out below).  The Dawgs sic em and end the extra payout to ol' Lane (what a tough life).  UGA: 31--Ole Miss: 17

Hoying: This is a fascinating matchup, and not just for the rematch factor. Ole Miss had Georgia on the ropes in Athens earlier this season before their defense completely ran out of gas in the 4th quarter, a result that might inspire a reversal of outcome in a second meeting of these teams, absent any confounding factors. But when Lane Kiffin is involved, you can bet that everyone is leaving confounded. The Rebs seemed very insistent to put the world on notice that losing Kiffin wasn't going to be the death knell of their title hopes, rendering Tulane into gooey paste in the CFP first round, but that was Tulane. Any of these Playoff contenders could do that to pretty much any G5 team (as long as Oregon's defense shows up in the second half). Ole Miss managed to hang on to DC Pete Golding, who has been promoted to head coach (with no coaching search???) and have the bulk of their offensive staff on loan from Lane, but how locked in are they going to be at this point? You saw Brian Hartline put up 10 points against Indiana, which was bad enough that Day wrested control of the offense back for the stretch run. Ole Miss is good enough to win the whole thing this year, and should not be taken lightly, but as we saw the last time these two teams met, you can't beat Georgia if you take your eye off the ball for even a quarter, let alone 60 minutes. UGA: 34--Miss: 27

Schweinfurth: Ole Miss got a bye last week. Let's face it, there were not tested at all. If we look at the teams that could actually win it all, the Rebels are not high on that list. Georgia is. This will be the meh game of the playoff semis. UGA: 35--Ole Miss: 17
Seeberg: Boo, the SEC gets a team into the semis by default *heavy sigh*.  Anyway, Ole Miss still looked solid in another dismantling of Tulane (yawn) despite the turmoil in Oxford.  UGA, however, is perhaps a slight step up in competition.  Gunnar Stockton has been serviceable most of the season and the Dawgs’ defense looked like its 2021 self as they dominated Bama in the SEC title game.  That formula- a decent QB and dominant D- won them back-to-back natties.  Bama, however, is almost entirely one-dimensional on offense, and Ole Miss presents more problems.  So many problems, in fact, that the Bulldogs gave up 35 at home to the Rebels in October (yay rematches!).  At that point, there still wasn’t a ton of tape on the Rebels’ backup-turned-star QB Trinidad Chambliss (all-name team for eternity, by the way).  With another couple months of film, combined with the loss of Kiffin and a lot of offensive staff, it’s hard to think Ole Miss will get to 30 points again.  Georgia may or may not get there either, but the Dawgs should do enough on offense regardless.  Another CFP semi for Kirby.  UGA: 31—Ole Miss: 20

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 31

Miami Hurricanes vs. THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: Miami was the monstrous question mark in this entire playoff field.  Yeah, they have Carson Beck (the presumed #1 pick last year), but also, they have Carson Beck (interception machine).  The Canes definitely sport some dudes up from on both sides of the ball that could harass Sayin like the Hoosiers did, but I gotta believe the coaches put their heads together to activate demon mode for the playoffs.  I'm excited to see what Van Sickle does replacing the 'injured' Tshabola, but we all know that this needs to be the Smith/Tate show.  If Miami isn't able to get pressure quickly, I believe Day will be taking many more vertical shots than he did against the Hoosiers (the shots he took worked, there were just very few).  Bo Jackson needs to keep up his amazing freshman season to keep the defense honest and the backs also need to keep Sayin clean.  If he has time, the Canes are in trouble.  On the other side of the ball, Miami's Mark Fletcher looked really good versus A&M but this bullet defense stops the run much more efficiently.  It is imperative that the defensive line (Curry and Big Mac) pressure Carson Beck into some mistakes.  Beck has the tools to be a very solid QB and weapons like Malachi Toney to make the Buckeyes pay if left unchecked, but if he gets hit early and often with an early turnover, this could snowball.  While this game is not the layup Buckeye Nation believes it to be, the cards clearly favor the Scarlet and Gray.  Now, the title defense begins.  Go Ohio! Beat the Hurricanes! OSU: 31--UM: 17

Hoying: Gentlemen, I bring you...MORE DECEMBER BOWL GAMES! This time...SHALL BE DIFFERENT! Broken hearts in 2022 (and 2019, and 2016, and sure, throw in 2023) aside, the Buckeyes are facing a lower class of opponent (in every sense) than the Clemsons and Georgias of seasons past, and the boys in scarlet and gray are better than any of those prior years' December warriors (except maybe 2019). There's been a lot of bluster coming from Cuba Norte about how cooked Ohio State is going to be in this one, and I just don't see it. I would put this game into the "upset alert" category: there's a path to victory for the Hurricanes but it requires them to fire on all cylinders in their areas of relative strength (pass rush, run defense, Malachi Toney) and for the Bucks to make mistake after mistake after mistake. Problem is, Ohio State is not Texas A&M; the Buckeyes don't hit the self destruct button every November or so (kudos to A&M for hitting the self-destruct "30 minute forbearance" button at halftime against South Carolina). When Ryan Day has a few weeks to prepare for a postseason opponent, and he's not starting Devin Brown at QB, get ready for the Buckeyes to rain hell down on whomever they're facing. Each Playoff loss in the Ryan Day era has been primarily a failure of the defense, with the arguable exception of 2019, which was doomed in part by poor red zone execution. And while red zone execution is a continued glaring scarlet flag for the Buckeyes, Matt Patricia's defense gives the offense a giant safety net to operate their acrobatics over. Buckeye opponents actually punt in the 4th quarters of big games now! Buckeyes take care of business and turn their attention to the worst playing surface in the football world. OSU: 27--Da U: 13

Schweinfurth: If Miami can get pressure, and if Ryan Day goes into a shell, and if the Silver Bullets stay in Columbus, and if Matt Patricia quits for the NFL on the sideline and, if and if and if. Miami's defense is good. Don't get me wrong, they can cause issues for the Buckeyes. That offense was NOT good last week. Beck will throw the ball to the other team if he is confused and the Bucks certainly can do that. Day has play calling duties back and you know he is itching to release the sleeping monster that is the Ohio State offense. Playoff Ryan Day rarely disappoints. In my mind, this game feels like it could be over by half time. It won't, but the Bucks have the ability to avalanche the Canes like they did Oregon last year. Go Bucks, Beat the Canes. OSU: 35--Miami: 7
Seeberg: I am, quite frankly, *breaks out thesaurus* highly perplexed, confounded, flummoxed and bemused at the amount of national media taking the ‘Canes in this one.  Did they watch the first round?  Miami won that game on a technicality:  The fact that both teams cannot lose a game, despite their best efforts.  A much more fitting ending would’ve been the Penn State-Illinois 9-OT “thriller” of perpetual mediocrity.  To Miami’s credit, however, they did win it.  The Canes’ seem to have mostly left their mid-season stupor behind, losing to two 8-4 squads while Carson Beck threw the ball to whatever team wasn’t wearing green and orange like it was on a dare.  Beck isn’t a particularly mobile quarterback which means one thing:  Matt Patricia can unleash Arvelle Reese from his QB spy duties.  That doesn’t bode well for any opponent.  Defensively, the Canes are excellent up front.  Their back 7 is…extant?  Pressure is paramount for that defense to succeed.  Sayin, with time, can pick their coverages apart, particularly with a fully healthy #4 in the fold.  I would love to see a big early lead and then watch Bo Jackson grind the Canes into powder, but I’m not convinced it will be an Oregon-like blowout.  Don’t fret, Buckeye Nation, if it’s not over after a quarter.  I suspect it will be over by three.  Jeremiah is highly motivated, and although Ryan Day will need a couple series to adjust to taking over play calling, the defense will (this is a guarantee) turn Beck over to get our offense set up.  All signs point to a methodical win.  Go Bucks, Happy New Year.  OSU: 27—Miami: 10

Five Concerns For Ohio State's Playoff Run

Entering the 2024 season, the national consensus was that the Buckeyes had assembled the best team on paper, but there was uncertainty about whether Ryan Day could finally make all the pieces fit and win the big one. And upon completion of the 2024 regular season, nothing much had changed, as the Buckeyes had stumbled to narrow losses in their two most important games but still found themselves comfortably within the Playoff. Nobody knew what to expect from Ohio State at that point; your foursome of forecasters each cautiously predicted a win over Tennessee but didn't know how far the Buckeyes could go beyond that. But, obviously, during the three weeks that Ohio State had to sit and stew after the Michigan debacle, the coaches optimized their strategy, the players locked in, and the Buckeyes went on a legendary 4-game heater interrupted only by a bit of a struggle bus game against Texas (no, the Notre Dame game wasn't close in any sense).

This season has played out a bit differently. Expectations were tempered, the 2025 Buckeyes seemed to hit even higher highs than their national champion forebears...and then they hit a similar pre-Playoff brick wall. The quality of the opponent blunted Buckeye Nation's unease heading into this year's Playoff, but we're still left to wonder: can the Buckeyes get their groove back, again?

Looking back on what Ohio State has accomplished, and failed to accomplish this season, I think OSU's title defense run needs to address five key areas of concern:

1.    Who's really running the offense? Concern level: low.

After Ohio State's disastrous 31-0 shutout in the 2016 College Football Playoff, squandering a championship level defense for the second year in a row, Urban jettisoned Ed Warinner and Tim Beck and brought in long-time college football offensive mastermind Kevin Wilson and some quarterbacks coach from San Francisco to revitalize the offense. The personnel shakeup worked, and after a big of a break-in period in 2017 (still a massive improvement over the prior year), the Day/Wilson offense was perhaps the envy of the sport from 2018 through a masterful 41 point performance against the 2022 national champion Georgia Bulldogs. Then Wilson left, and Day turned over the OC job to his all-star WR coach, Brian Hartline. And the offense began to falter. Sure, Day had the worst quarterback of his Ohio State tenure in 2023, and his star running back and rock solid WR2 were playing hurt for the better part of the season, but even Ohio State's first Heisman finalist at wide receiver couldn't cover up for the fact that something was just...off about the 2023 offense, culminating in a ghastly 3 point performance in the 2023 Cotton Bowl. After an offseason arrangement with Bill O'Brien fell through, Day turned to his old New Hampshire mentor, Chip Kelly, who seemingly revitalized the Buckeye offense as they raced to a 10-1 start with the lone blemish from putting up 31 points and being outscored by 1. Hardly the offense's fault.

Then the Chip Kelly Buckeyes laid perhaps the biggest egg in program history, 10 points against a moribund Wolverine squad in their only full season under their most incompetent head coach since Fred Flintstone. But something changed between the regular season finale and the start of bowl season. The Buckeye offense returned to raining hell upon their opponents, reminiscent of 2020's program-ending onslaught against Clemson, JSN's one man air raid, and the carving up of the 2022 Georgia Bulldogs that fell just a few yards short. In other words, the 2024 Playoff offense had Day's fingerprints all over it.

That's good news, as Day is once again seizing control of the offense after another 10 point debacle, albeit against the #1 Indiana Hoosiers (that'll never not be weird) this time. Playing your biggest game of the season 3 days after learning your play caller has freshly divided loyalties wasn't an ideal situation to begin with, not that the Buckeyes haven't won a national championship with a lame duck OC before (remember Tom Herman?). In past years, Buckeye Nation pressed Day to hand off play calling duties in order to take a more managerial role of the team as a whole. But with Matty Patty putting on a defensive clinic that puts even Jeff Hafley to shame, and the special teams being...what they are going to be for the rest of the season (look, Fielding's not going to become magically better or worse at this point), I'm not opposed to Day micromanaging the offense for the next 3 games. That being said, there's always the concern that...

2.    Can the short yardage issues be fixed? Concern level: high.

I love me some postseason Buckeye air attack offense, but there has been a troubling Achilles heel of Ohio State offenses in the Ryan Day era: the inability to get a single yard when it really matters. This problem lay dormant early in Day's tenure, as the 2017, 2019, and 2020 Buckeyes all had solid running games and did very well in short yardage situations. But 2018 foreshadowed what we've come to expect from the post-COVID Buckeyes: stone walls on 3rd and short runs, and weird misdirections and gadget plays ending in frustration (remember that awful Egbuka end-around at Notre Dame?). The big exception was last year, and, not coincidentally, the Bucks brought home the hardware for the first time in a decade. But do you know what else 2017, 2019, 2020, and 2024 had in common? Mobile QBs. JT Barrett reduced it to a science, but every time the man behind center (shotgun?) has been willing to take off and get a first down on the ground, opposing defenses have had difficulty stopping the Ohio State running game, particularly on short yardage late downs and in the red zone. Now, Julian Sayin is a more willing runner than CJ Stroud, and a more gifted athlete than Kyle McCord, but as we saw early in Ann Arbor and late in Indianapolis, he can't push a pile, and the coaches have kept him in bubble wrap for the better part of the season. If Ohio State finds itself bogged down in another defensive slugfest like last year's Texas game (or this year's Texas game), which I wouldn't be surprised to see against any of Ohio State's likely Playoff opponents, I'm not sure we'll be able to find any late game 4th-and-short QB power heroics like Will Howard flashed in last year's Cotton Bowl. Perhaps, even if we can't copy Urban Meyer's mini-Tebows at QB, we can at least mix in a bit of his spread-to-run sensibilities, draw off defenders covering Smith and Tate downfield, and give Bo Jackson a chance to shed a tackle and make a special play.

3.    What are the statuses of Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate? Concern level: low.

Out of nowhere, Carnell Tate disappeared from the Ohio State offense prior to the kickoff of the Purdue game, and he didn't return until The Game. One week later, Jeremiah Smith played only a few drives against UCLA and then sat out against Rutgers, giving Ohio State fans a look into an alternate reality in which the usual Buckeye "death from above" attack depended upon the likes of Brandon Inniss and David Adolph. Smith, like Tate, returned for The Game, and Smith, like Tate, scored a TD against That Team Up North. In the aftermath glow of his first win over UM in his last 5 tries, Day emphasized the work that Smith and Tate had put in to battle through their respective injuries back onto the field. But while both were relatively effective against Indiana in the Big Ten Championship, with Tate finding the end zone again and Smith reeling in 144 yards, neither put on the game-dominating performances that had defined the Ohio State offense through the first 8 games of the season. Each of Tate and Smith insists that he's at 100 percent going into the Playoff, but injuries have a way of reaggravating themselves, and losing either star receiver could narrow the Buckeyes' championship path considerably (just look at the 4th quarter against Georgia 3 years ago).

4.    Has Sayin lost his confidence? Concern level: low.

The hype surrounding Julian Sayin was rather muted coming into the 2025 season. Sayin had attempted all of 12 passes in his career to that point, sat behind Devin Brown during the 2024 season, and had the distinction of being overshadowed in his first career start by both the opposing QB (Arch Manning) and his own teammate (Jeremiah Smith), both of whom sat comfortably above Sayin in the preseason Heisman rankings. Entering the season, given Day's track record as a passing game mastermind, I thought that Sayin deserved greater expectations, hearkening back to the annual Heisman hype for each untested fill-in-the-blank USC starting quarterback under Pete Carroll. Sayin went on to have a brilliant 2025 campaign, marked by unmatched accuracy and an uncanny ability to read defenses pre-snap and get the ball out quickly. Sayin entered Indianapolis with the puck on the stick for every award a QB can earn, if only he could outduel Fernando Mendoza for the Big Ten Championship. But then something strange happened. Sayin misread the IU defense early in the game and threw an interception (which Inniss probably could have fought to catch if we're being honest). That wasn't the strange part; Sayin had thrown a much worse pick the week prior in Ann Arbor. But then, Sayin started to uncharacteristically hesitate. He missed wide open reads downfield, and even though his pass protection didn't exactly cover themselves in glory, his lack of decisiveness led to him taking sack after sack after sack. Now, much like the pass pro, this problem was mitigated deep in the second half to the tune of two score-worthy drives, neither of which was particularly limited by any unwillingness by Sayin to pull the trigger in the red zone. But, contrary to the perspective of some fans and Sayin's own words, I think Sayin should be more willing to let it rip downfield. With Sayin's accuracy, Tate's unmatched contested catch ability, and Smith's do-it-all skill set (and the Buckeyes' well-documented short yardage struggles) this is a Buckeye offense that should be taking more chances, not fewer. Of course, their ability to push the ball down the field will depend on...

5. How good is the offensive line, really? Concern level: medium.

It's fair to say that the lion's share of the blame for the last two Ohio State losses falls on the offensive line. Yes, the Buckeyes had some questionable play calls late against Indiana, but 5 sacks kept OSU from jumping all over Indiana early, and the failed QB sneak wasn't wholly on Sayin. And yes, Fielding could have made his field goals last year, but Graham and Grant were dictating the reality on the field every time the Scarlet and Gray had the ball. At least last year's Buckeyes had the excuse of having to replace the two most positions on the O-line midseason. The 2025 offensive line lineup has been remarkably consistent (for better or worse) outside of a rotation at right guard. Tegra Tshabola has struggled in a starting role for the better part of two seasons now, but flashes of brilliance, including just a few weeks ago against the hated rival, have kept him at the top of the depth chart. Now a late season surgery has forced the coaches' hands: Gabe "Sicko Mode" VanSickle will likely start in his place after his appearance in the Big Ten Championship helped cut 5 pre-Gabe sacks down to zero for the rest of the game. Josh Padilla, who looked like he might have been the answer earlier in the season before, like Tate, mysteriously disappearing before the Purdue game, will be back in the mix as well.

The good news is that, as alluded to above, the rest of the line has been good-to-great for most of the season. C Carson Hinzman followed up a shaky 2023 with a great 2024 regular season at LG and Playoff back run at C and earned first-team All-American honors this year. The left side of the line has been solid, with LT Austin Siereveld and LG Luke Montgomery, who started at LG and RG respectively, for your 2024 National Champions, performing well enough for second team All-Big Ten recognition. New transfer RT Phillip Daniels joined them for third team honors. Really, the only question is at RG, as well as the general production in short yardage situations as described above. In the case of the replacement of Tshabola, Buckeye Nation will be holding its breath hoping for a possible addition by subtraction.

Week 16: Twice More, With Feeling

Standings:

1.) Schweinfurth 48-16 (0-14 upset)
2.) Hoying 47-17 (2-12 upset)
3.) Seeberg 43-21 (4-10 upset)
3.) Draper 41-23 (2-12 upset)

Welcome to the first 12-team Playoff without an Ohio State home game. Unlike the last Playoff expansion, the Buckeyes are sitting at home in the first round of their title defense season as a result of playing too well rather than too poorly (same number of losses though). While Buckeye Nation waits with bated breath to see which member of the "We Knocked Notre Dame Out of the Playoff" club will be joining them in Jerryworld, we can also settle in to watch a pair of rematches and the Big Ten's only first round participant.

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 19

Alabama Crimson Tide @ Oklahoma Sooners

Draper: Rematches are stupid. OU beat Bama IN TUSCALOOSA and their reward is to play Bama in Norman in a game that 'really' counts.  Let's not forget that the Sooners were EXTREMELY fortunate (lucky) to win round 1.  I believe it was the smallest postgame win expectancy of a winner for the year.  While OU has a nasty dominant defense, the offense is supremely mid.  Mateer needs to make a few plays and I'm just not sure he can do it.  Bama has been trending in the wrong direction over the last few weeks, but the talent is there.  If Simpson can stop seeing ghosts and return to a semblance of the first half of the season (sans FSU), I expect a flip.  DeBoer has a TON to play for as a loss may send him into the open arms of the dumpster fire in Ann Arbor.  Death. Taxes. Bama.  Bama: 20--OU: 13

Hoying: Ah yes, the rare home-and-home intraseason series. What is this, the Pac-2? Just over a month ago, Alabama followed up last year's waxing by the Sooners in Norman by laying another egg at home, with 3 Tide turnovers leading to 17 of the 23 points that Oklahoma needed to clip Bama by 2. Ask yourself: is that likely to happen again? Neither of these teams has been playing particularly well down the stretch, with OU failing to hit the 20 mark against middling Missouri and LSU to close out the season and Alabama getting absolutely whacked by UGA after tiebreaking their way into the SEC Championship. Both of these teams are big believers in min-maxing. Bama has a great (if inconsistent) passing game but runs about as well as Joe Oliver. Oklahoma has fully Venablized their defense but can't really do anything with the ball at all. I don't love this pick, especially since Bama hasn't looked like BAMA since beating Tennessee way back in October, but I can't see OU getting anything going offensively, even on the home turf. Looks like Michigan will have to wait another couple weeks to see if DeBoer is willing to drag them out of the muck. Bama: 17--OU: 13

Schweinfurth: Not sure how to feel on this one. We get a wonderful SEC rematch!!! Woohoo (fart). OU won the first game, and it is really, really hard to win beat a team twice in a year. Alabama can't run the ball and was embarrassed by Georgia. It's been this way all year, and I think it continues tonight. It's close. It's ugly. It's SEC football because they are both great (or not). Bama: 13--OU: 17
Seeberg: To this day, I think it’s obvious to even the most casual observer that rushing Mateer back for Red River was a colossal mistake. The Sooners offense has been mediocre at best down the stretch, and even though Ty and Co in the crimson are pretty one-dimensional on offense, it’s still better than whatever OU is tossing out there now. The Sooners’ defense keeps them in it, but Bama gets revenge (and TTUN doesn’t get DeBoer, everyone wins! Well, except Oklahoma). Bama: 24—OU: 16

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 20

Miami Hurricanes @ Texas A&M Aggies

Draper: This one is super difficult.  The super high variance of the Reed or...the super high variance of Beck and the Canes.  Oh yeah, it's in Kyle Field which could be bad news for the Canes.  However, Miami gets to play the disrespect card with a chip on their shoulder with something to prove while the Aggies more or less backed in to the playoffs after dropping the finale to the Horns. Elko will make sure to rein in Reed to prevent the big mistake while the defense tries to take the game over.  Cristobal will be worried about Beck, but I think the play is to let him cook and see what happens.  Yeah, Beck could throw 5 picks and lose the game, but the upside with Toney and a good Beck would overcome the homefield.  The Canes roll the dice, limit Reed in the run game, and exit Aggieland with a ticket to meet the Buckeyes.  UM: 20--TAMU: 17

Hoying: Who wants to get blasted by the most talented team in America? Earlier this season, many folks desperate to crown a title favorite other than our beloved Buckeyes latched onto the once again resurgent Miami Hurricanes. And why not? Their week 1 win over Notre Dame was as good as anyone else's and then they had that killer 3-week run against ranked South Florida (lol), Florida, and ranked Florida State (LOL). But the Canes have never really looked that great since, outside of a strong closing statement against Pitt that seems to have barely carried them into the Playoff. A&M has been a bit more consistent but seems to have saved the worst for last, getting thumped by Texas not long after needing a miracle to escape a bad South Carolina team. The U is volatile enough to lose to any team in this year's Playoff, with Carson Beck's addiction to picks threatening to flare up at any time, but they've been able to rouse themselves for their big matchups and I think they can do it one more time. Just one. UM: 27--TAMU: 24

Schweinfurth: Miami has the talent to win this game. It really just depends on which Carson Beck shows up. If 4 INT Carson shows up, not looking good. If good Carson shows up, watch out. Truthfully, I do think home field matters this year. Kyle Field is worth at least 7 points. UM: 21--TAMU: 24
Seeberg: Hmmm. What’s the ACC doing here? I thought ESPN everyone was trying to turn the playoff into power conferences only? Oh well. At any rate, the formerly vaunted U roll into Kyle Field sporting an early season win over Notre Dame and…not much else. They’ll face Marcel Reed and the Aggies, sporting an early season win over Notre Dame and…well you get it. Neither of these squads did much to build on that early season success as Beck decided to throw to the wrong team a lot during the middle of the year and Reed took that mantle towards the end. Both teams do have solid pass rushes, and Reed is a bit more mobile. I know they looked worse down the stretch, but several weeks off erases most of that and the home crowd should be just enough to make sure we have another away bowl game crowd on New Year’s Eve. Yay. UM: 17—TAMU: 23

Tulane Green Wave @ Mississippi Rebels

Draper: This rematch is also dumb...but could be a little interesting.  Tulane was blown out in the first round, but this was the first we saw of Chambliss.  Retzlaff was still getting his sealegs under him at that point as well.  The Rebs are fighting so many off field demons with Lane's departure, that it may galvanize or destroy their focus.  I do think the Retzlaff is a good QB that could make this a bit spicy, but let's not forget the Tulane's coach has also taken another job (even if he hasn't left yet).  Ole Miss has the athletes and should be able to outlast Tulane...but I don't think they pull away until late.  Tul: 20--Miss: 34

Hoying: Perhaps a rematch can be forgiven if the first was close, decided by a couple of big plays. Less fun is a retread of a 5-score whomping in which the visiting team completed all of 10 passes between their 2 quarterbacks, and not for lack of trying. We're talking Craig Krenzel against San Diego State levels of aerial incompetence. Generally, the Rebs are a bit more vulnerable on the ground, and the Green Wave was able to find a little bit of room in these teams' first meeting. But you're going to have to score in bunches to keep up with Lane Kiffin's Ole Miss...that is, as long as it's still Lane Kiffin's Ole Miss for at least another 60 minutes. The key minds on offense have all headed west, although a few have pledged to stick around to tamper with Ole Miss's players keep the Rebel scoring attack on track. I don't exactly expect the Rebels to crumble under the chaos, but I don't expect the same potency that we've seen over the last six years in Oxford. It won't matter this week, but the Rebs are in for a rude awakening in their next rematch once the calendar flips to 2026. Tul: 20--Miss: 35

Schweinfurth: Another rematch. Yawn. This has intrigue, but only because of Joey Freshwater. Ole Miss wins. Tul: 20--Miss: 38
Seeberg: If a G5 team has a chance this season, it’s here, despite the blowout 3 months ago. Ole Miss is currently a well-chronicled disaster. Tulane can run it, and the storm over Oxford will keep this one close for a half or so. Can you IMAGINE the Lane social media if the Rebels lose?? Sadly, it will stay in our imaginations only. Tul: 17—Miss: 34

James Madison Dukes @ Oregon Ducks

Draper: Not going to lie, I have no clue what JMU brings to this game other than an A+ social media game and a nice run game.  I've been fading Oregon all year but it continues to haunt me.  No, I'm not doubting them here.  JMU will come out with the kitchen sink, but when everything settles in, the Ducks will simply overwhelm the Dukes.  Just not enough for the little guy (but it would be funny).  JMU: 17--Ore: 45

Hoying: Perhaps if Oregon could have had a warmup game like this in last year's Playoff they wouldn't have come out so flat footed in Pasadena. Yeah, it's always better not to have to play an extra game in a lose-and-you're-out scenario, but the Ducks don't have a lot to worry about in this one outside of the injury bug. This season James Madison played a total of one Power 4 team, Louisville (what is it with Playoff teams and Louisville), and lost by 2 scores. No, I wouldn't rather have seen Duke, or Notre Dame, or Vanderbilt make the Playoff in JMU's place (it matters very little who makes the Playoff after around team #10 or so), but this is the kind of team that Oregon has been chewing up and spitting out all season (except Iowa, but they've been dragging everyone from Indiana to Michigan State into the same 17-13 slog). A Duck win sets up what should be one of the most intriguing matchups of the Playoff down in the Orange Bowl. JMU: 10--Ore: 35

Schweinfurth: The Ducks are one of the teams that could win it all. JMU is not. End of story. JMU: 9--Ore: 35
Seeberg: Well, the Ducks got their wish this year, a first-round game! In all honesty the Ducks are one of 5 teams that can legitimately win it all this year- and the only one without a bye. The best part about this matchup has been how hilarious JMU Twitter has been. Spectacular content, rivaling the Pop Tarts Bowl even. I’ll be sorry when that ends Saturday night. If Oregon avoids injury, watch out CFP they may very well claim their birthright: going on a legit run only to get smoked by Ohio State. Note the score. JMU: 21—Ore: 41

Week 15: Indiana Mendoza and the Temple of Doom

Standings:

1.) Schweinfurth 46-13 (0-14 upset)
2.) Hoying 45-14 (2-12 upset)
3.) Seeberg 41-18 (4-10 upset)
3.) Draper 40-19 (2-12 upset)

You like do or die matchups for the little guy? You like making sangs bleus des sangs bleus sweat out Selection Sunday based on performances of freshly minted power teams like BYU? You like #1 vs. #2 program-defining matchups involving the Ohio State Buckeyes? Then you came to the right weekend, even if you're getting the sinking feeling that you've seen a lot of these matchups before...

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 5

American: North Texas Mean Green @ Tulane Green Wave

Draper: Our first playoff game takes place in New Orleans for the American championship.  Both of these teams have had great seasons with Tulane beating the potential ACC Champ and North Texas more or less steamrolling a...less than impressive slate.  Regardless, this should be a fun game.  Tulane is led by Jake Retzloff (former BYU standout) and will look to run run run while Drew Mestemaker leads the Mean Green and their run and gun passing attack.  Tulane being at home in this game makes it a little tricky, but I think the offensive firepower of UNT will prove too much and lead them to sacrificial lamb status in the playoff.  This should be a fun game with lots of offensive fireworks.  UNT: 45--Tul:38

Hoying: Two years into the 12-team Playoff and we have a real, live, Playoff play-in game in a G6 conference. What a time to be alive. The SEC commentariat has spent the last few weeks impotently blustering about how much better the world would be if we could have 6 or 7 SEC teams in the Playoff instead of throwing a bone to the little guys at the 12 spot (or 11 spot potentially in this case). Sure, both of these teams enter this championship game with double digit win totals, but they aren't beating Power 4 competition week after week, or even beating teams that routinely beat other Power 4 teams. You could point out that Tulane got obliterated by Ole Miss in week 4 and that North Texas didn't play a single Power 4 opponent all year (Washington State doesn't count anymore). But did you know that Tulane has a win over fellow the fellow Playoff hopeful Duke Blue Devils? In fact, all credit to Tulane for playing three Power 4 opponents from three conferences (add Northwestern to the other two mentioned) and knocking off two of them (at home? Why are these teams traveling to Tulane?). The Mean Green have been all gas no brakes on offense this year, putting up at least 30 points in all 12 games (even the game they lost by 27 points), but the defense has been a bit suspect against the run. Unfortunately for Tulane, they make their hay through the air. North Texas hasn't faced a lot of stiff competition this year but the Green Wave should break over them rather harmlessly. Can't wait to see three Texas teams in the Playoff this year. Are we forgetting anybody? UNT: 41--Tulane: 31

Schweinfurth: No idea on this one guys. This falls in the category of, not enough time to pay attention. UNT is favored, so I'll take them to barely cover. Why not. UNT: 42--Tulane 38
Seeberg: We have arrived at postseason college football! Well, except for Army/Navy. Regardless, this one should be a fun watch as both teams have highlight reel offenses. Technically, they also have defenses, kinda. Personally, I need to see a team named Mean Green in the playoffs, especially with the story of their literal 0-star, walk-on QB turned air raid expert in Drew Mestamaker. Can’t keep him down now. The Mean Green outlast the Green Wave in a fun one. UNT: 38—Tulane: 34 

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 6

Big 12: Brigham Young Cougars vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders

Draper: I had the fortune to watch this BYU team take care of their hated rivals in the Holy War, and they get one more shot to take out the lone blemish on their schedule.  The more I've looked at the ridiculous CFP rankings, the more I've realized how BYU has the most right of any team to throw a fit.  They have a great win over Utah and a singular loss to a good team (TT).  ND and Miami have a combined 1 good win (Miami over ND) and 1 'meh' win (ND over USC.  BYU has no bad losses (hello Miami) and a better wins than ND.  Yet, their only path to the playoff is to win an extra game.  Still, to be the best, you need to beat the best.  Bear Bachmeier has had an electric freshman season and LJ Martin is a dynamic running back.  Texas Tech is led by a ferocious defense and Heisman Trophy hopeful (lol) Jacob Rodriguez.  I truly think that BYU is the more stable of these teams as I don't know what the Raiders are going to roll out in a given week, but the upside of the boys from Lubbock is just too much.  BYU will make ND and Bama sweat a bit, but sadly, chaos won't reign.  Tech gets the 3 or 4 seed and a 1st round bye.  BYU: 13--TT: 20

Hoying: Once upon a time these two teams played and I predicted that Texas Tech was going to win comfortably by multiple scores. Then that happened. Now it's going to happen again. The Red Raiders followed up BYU's rude awakening by pasting their last couple of hapless foes in much the same way they've done to every other non-Arizona State team on their schedule. BYU has been fine but, as we saw a month ago, even their freshman sensation QB Bear Bachmeier doesn't have the firepower to overcome the ferocious Red Raider defense led by their Heisman candidate linebacker (?!?) Jacob Rodriguez. Tech hasn't so much as been touched with Behren Morton behind center, and it's going to take a team with a lot more raw physical acumen than BYU's to knock the Raiders out of the title hunt. Tech snaps up a first round bye and awaits whatever Big Ten or SEC foe can finally make them walk the plank (if any). BYU: 13--TTU: 27

Schweinfurth: Texas Tech has looked good all year. Strong on defense. That goes a long way this time of year. BYU has been a cool story, but the has the Red Raiders written all over it. BYU: 14--TTU: 28
Seeberg: I know, I know, rematches are supposed to be way tougher to win, blah blah blah. But let’s be serious here, if it weren’t for the Red Raiders losing their starting QB for a few weeks midseason, they would almost certainly be undefeated. By the time BYU caught them, all was well for TTU as they dominated the Cougars, winning by 3 TDs. I really don’t think BYU has made up 22 points in a month’s time. Red Raiders roll. BYU: 10—TTU: 24

SEC: Georgia Bulldogs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

Draper: Rematches suck.  Who knows what to do with either of these teams? Both struggled against inferior competition in the season finale and have traded off being the team 'begging' to get tagged every week.  While We know that Kirby Smart has this weird thing about beating Alabama, those streaks are only real until they're not (did you guys know OSU beat TTUN in convincing fashion this year! That's way better than the last few years.  Just wanted to bring that up again...). Regardless, when you look at the upside talent, Bama has the offensive advantage in spades.  I'd give UGA the nod on defense, but I just don't know what the Dawgs are this year.  Yeah, they keep winning, squeak out games against Tennessee, Florida, GT....then beat the doors (kinda) off of Texas.  While Deboer has won a lot of close games, but against tougher competition.  I'll lean on the Tide to get it done (because of course).  Their seeding will be interesting.  I expect the winner of this game to earn a bye.  UGA: 24--Bama: 30

Hoying: It's a bad year for dorsal-adjacent monkeys. Virginia beat Va Tech for the second time in 20 tries, and your favorite team just got done dumping their hated rival for the first time since Corona was just a Mexican beer. But time and change have not been any kinder to Kirby Smart, who lost to the Tide again this year to put him at 1-7 against his old defensive coordinating stomping grounds. The good news for the 2025 Dawgs is Kirby's one win over the Evil Empire was in a rematch, in the CFP National Championship after Georgia got spanked by Bryce Young and Jameson Williams in the SEC title game. Of course, that was after John Metchie and Jameson both tore their ACLs, so it appears that Kirby isn't winning any titles if his opponents aren't down both of their star receivers. As for this year, has anything really changed since Alabama trimmed the hedges back in September? Somewhat. Alabama still can't run the ball, but Georgia's pass defense has taken some great steps forward, stifling Arch Manning and Haynes King down the stretch. The Gunner Stockton and Ty Simpson hype has cooled considerably along with the fall weather (seriously, ESPN is beside themselves at the prospect of a 2-man Heisman race between Julian Sayin and Fernando Mendoza) but both have played well enough down the stretch to all but lock up spots in the Playoff. In these teams' earlier meeting this year, Alabama seemed to catch Georgia off guard, breaking out to a 24-14 halftime lead and white knuckling out the second half, very similar to last year, only without the late Ryan Williams heroics (whatever happened to that guy?). This time, I expect the Georgia balance to push past the one dimensional Alabama air raid and get Kirby his second rematch win against his most daunting rival. Just with no natty this time. It's a good thing that Texas Tech is going to obliterate BYU, or else the Playoff Committee would have a really tough time choosing between Alabama and Notre Dame for the last Playoff spot. UGA: 27--Bama: 24

Schweinfurth: Neither of these teams want to play this game. Which is odd, because this is for hardware. I guess no one wants a trophy anymore. Anyway, Bama has trouble running the ball. That's bad news because Georgia looks like a top tier team once again. Dawgs win, but do they care? UGA: 31--Bama: 20
Seeberg: Oddly, it’s tough to know what to make of this game. UGA has looked better on defense in recent weeks, but struggled to score against a very mediocre Georgia Tech team just last week. To Bama’s credit, they seem to have firmly established their identity. To their discredit, however, it’s an identity almost completely devoid of the run game. That’s why I thought Georgia would win the first matchup, but Bama proved to be Kirby Smart’s nemesis yet again. I’m (perhaps stupidly) going to assume that Kirby kept things extra vanilla against the Yellow Jackets to save enough good stuff for this one. Kirby exercises some demons against a rival like Day did last week. Smart. UGA: 24—Bama: 16

ACC: Duke Blue Devils vs. Virginia Cavaliers

Draper: I just....don't care.  While my beloved Noles are in the depths of hell, the ACC is just an absolute dumpster fire.  UVA vs. a 7-5 Duke team for the title? One of these teams (might) get in the playoffs? Whatever.  If Duke wins, it will be funny, but UVA is a better top to bottom team.  There's no reason for the Cavs to blow this one....except it's the ACC.  Spin the wheel! Duke: 17--UVA: 31

Hoying: Seriously, it's like Discount Rematch Warehouse is hosting a 3-for-1 deal on power conference championships. These teams just played 3 weeks ago, at Duke, and Virginia raced out to a 31-3 lead before settling for a comfortable 34-17 victory. That gave the Blue Devils their fifth loss of the season, which, in a saner world, would end any opportunities for a conference championship or a Playoff spot. But the spirit of the ACC Coastal chaos division lives on (as it turns out, both of these teams are Coastal alumni), and both of these thoroughly mediocre, basketball-first programs are practically win-and-in (Duke might need some help from a James Madison loss). Duke giving up 31 points to UVA through 3 quarters was not a fluke; the Devils haven't held an opponent under 25 points since knocking off transient Fernando Mendoza and Devin Brown haven California Berkeley back in early October. The Dukies lost to Illinois, Tulane, and UCONN (again, are we sure we're not doing basketball here?) out of conference and gave up at least 34 points to each. Virginia, for its part, has looked rather cavalier themselves in unimpressive wins against Washington State and North Carolina and a loss to Wake Forest. But at least there's something resembling a defense there, and a good enough offense to overcome whatever they allow, especially against the team they just smoked on the road. Virginia double taps the Blue Devils and slides into the 11 spot to get obliterated by *checks notes* Ole Miss? Hey, maybe the Cavs will have a chance after all. Duke: 21–UVA: 31

Schweinfurth: This feels like Virginia's title to lose. Could have been Miami, but LOL. Duke: 17--UVA: 38
Seeberg: Honestly? I refuse to do much work on this one. Duke got obliterated by the Cavaliers less than a month ago, they have FIVE losses- and one is to UCONN. This isn’t college basketball. A loss to UCONN should be an automatic disqualification. I will say, however, that if ANYONE had this matchup in the preseason and bet it, congrats on your early retirement. Cavs roll, even without LeBron. Duke: 20—UVA: 38

Big Ten: Indiana Hoosiers vs. THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: Welcome to the world of the 12-team playoff where a titanic 1 v 2 matchup means the difference between earning a playoff bye and a Rose Bowl berth and.....a playoff bye and a different major bowl berth.  I warned you all that the playoff seems so cool until we get some of these huge games late in the season that mean nothing.  I will say that this certainly means something to perennial punching bag IU as this is their best chance to do the unthinkable and take a B1G conference title home over THE Ohio State Buckeyes.  Mendoza v. Sayin will be the talk of the game, but I'm more interested in how the teams play in the trenches.  Can the Hoosier d-line (who is really freaking good) break through the Buckeye O-line to pressure Sayin and stop the resurgent OSU rushing attack under Bo Jackson (which TTUN could not)? Can the Silver Bullets continue their reign of terror by simply overwhelming opponents without getting a ton of sacks but limiting all rushing threats and locking down the threats down field? I expect IU to come out with their hair on fire going for glory and hanging punch for punch early on....then Marotti time kicks in as the Buckeye continue their workmanlike approach to the season.  This is a stepping stone on the path to the true goal.  Bucks clock in, shut it down, and head off to the next challenge.  Sayin for Heisman, JJ for best player in CFB (should be Heisman), and the Bucks continue ruining college football for the other 129 schools.  IU: 17--OSU: 30

Hoying: What does this game really mean? In a 12-team Playoff world, heck, in a 4-team Playoff world, not all that much. The winner will be a unanimous #1 on Sunday morning, and the loser will still have a great case to be ranked right behind them at #2. Each will forgo a home Playoff matchup to be slotted into a nice cushy bowl quarterfinal against what should be a manageable opponent (no stupid top 4 autobids for crappy conference champions pushing the best challengers into the #5 and #6 ambush spots like last year). But, if you ask the coaches and players themselves, this game means everything. Indiana has been in the Big Ten since 1900 and has a grand total of two Big Ten Championships to show for it, while Ohio State is still chasing Michigan for the conference lead after pulling within three back in 2020. Indiana has never won a Big Ten Championship in a year in which they've played Ohio State, let alone beaten them, and the Hoosiers haven't beaten the Buckeyes at all in their last 30 tries. The winner carries their momentum into the Playoff and puts the rest of the college football world on notice that they're the team to beat. The thing is, Ohio State has already done that, at least since the bored media ran out of SEC and other southern teams to prop up as potential championship alternatives to the Buckeyes (remember Texas and Clemson preseason? Remember LSU, Miami, and Texas A&M after that?). This game, I think, will come down to two keys: (1) can Ohio State give Julian Sayin time to find Carnell and Jeremiah, and (2) can the Silver Bullets prevent Mendoza from doing the same? (for his receivers, not Carnell and Jeremiah) Last year's easy victory was a bit of fool's gold for the scarlet and gray, as some devastating miscues by Indiana on special teams papered over the fact that Ohio State hadn't quite found the right recipe for success on the offensive line after the losses of Isaiah Simmons, Zen Michalski, and especially Seth McLaughlin. Of course, none of those players are at Ohio State now (although you might see one of them on Saturday) and the big uglies up front had no trouble springing Bo Jackson and Scotchgarding Julian Sayin's jersey last week in Ann Arbor. More than anything, Ohio State's defense won last year's game by putting relentless and constant pressure on Kurtis Rourke to the tune of 5 sacks from Cody Simon, Captain Jack, and JT (great foreshadowing for the Playoff in that respect). The Hoosiers have upgraded at O-line and QB since last year, so it'll be up to the Big Ten's top defensive lineman, linebacker, and defensive back, and the other chess pieces that veritable terminator factory Matt Patricia moves around the board, to bury the HeisMendoza campaign right in the Hoosiers' backyard. Let's pencil in a victory for the Bucks. IU: 20--OSU: 31 

Schweinfurth: Let's start by moving past the logo on the visiting team's helmet. Indiana is a good team. They upgraded at the skill positions and have been a great story. Here's the rub, Ohio State is REALLY good on both lines. Did Indiana upgrade there? I don't know, but the line of scrimmage is where these games are won. Kenyata Jackson and company ate up Michigan's offensive line and blew up multiple plays in the backfield. Sayin wasn't even hurried on a pass play. Those are huge. I still don't know what part of this offense you stop. Day and company have shown that they will take what the defense give them and take a shot when needed. It could be a long day if Indiana has trouble with Ohio State's D front like they did Iowa and Penn State. It's hardware season and time to bring the B1G back to Old Columbus Town.  IU: 17--OSU: 31
Seeberg: Let’s be real here, the amount of national hype for this game is pathetic. I know it’s virtually meaningless from a playoff standpoint as both teams will almost certainly get byes. But EVERYTHING ELSE of importance is on the line: a conference title, the Heisman, and it’s a literal 1 vs. 2 matchup. It quite literally can’t get any bigger than that. Regardless, the Hoosiers make their first trip to Indy and this team is legit. Offense is a half step better than last year under Mendoza, and the defense is a full step better with a draft pick at each of the three levels. Ohio State meanwhile, almost impossibly, is a step better on defense too, with the B1G player of the year at every level of the defense- that has NEVER been done before. They are the first defense to allow 17 or fewer in every game in FIFTY YEARS. Props to the 1975 Gators- though somehow they lost 3 games. Both of these squads are undefeated and it will 100% come down to the play in the trenches. Last year Rourke was harassed all game long and they needed a garbage time touchdown to get to double digits. Our offense wasn’t exactly prolific either, getting a punt return TD and a punt block to set up first and goal. I watched Penn State largely handle the line of scrimmage against IU earlier this year, and that doesn’t bode well as we largely dominated the Nittanies. Long story short: the Hoosiers are better, but so are the Buckeyes. A strip sack will give us a short field, and indoors? The baby-faced assassin will attack all day. Time for Cig to get another serving of humble pie- and their fan base too. We have 9 natties and they have two…conference titles. Pipe down already! IU: 17—OSU: 31

Week 14: Taking the Fifth

Standings:

1.) Schweinfurth 43-11 (0-13 upset)
2.) Hoying 41-13 (2-11 upset)
3.) Seeberg 37-17 (3-10 upset)
3.) Draper 37-17 (2-11 upset)

It's been a long four years, Buckeye Nation, but we're nearly there. Here's to shutting up TTUN for the fifth year and beyond.

FRIDAY THE 28TH

Georgia Bulldogs @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Draper: This battle has been super interesting over the last few years.  After the Jackets were screwed last year in Athens, there is a touch of hope of knocking the Dawgs out in Clean Old-Fashioned Hate.  Sadly, I just don't see it happening.  Haynes King and Georgia Tech have petered out as the season has advanced while UGA appears to be getting stronger.  UGA is not the squad they have been over the past few years, but GT is DOA. Oh yeah, Tech sold the rights to holding the rivalry in Bobby Dodd.  Stupid 'neutral sites'.   UGA: 24--GT: 10

Hoying: Talk about two squads heading in opposite directions. After needing a late TD to get by Florida, the Bulldogs have taken a chainsaw to their foes the last few weeks, including crushing Texas two weeks ago. GT, no the other hand, has all but fallen out of ACC (and thus at this point, Playoff) contention after taking two losses and needing a last second FG against horrible Boston College saving the Jackets against losing three straight. Yes, Haynes King is always dangerous (and was near-lethal to the Dawgs last year), but Tech's defense is just so, so bad, which is a recipe for disaster against an offense hitting its stride at the right part of the season. UGA: 34--GT: 20

Schweinfurth: I don’t see where the Yellow Jackets can hang with the Dawgs. GT has gotten better this year, but I just don’t see it quite yet. UGA:31—GT 7
Seeberg: This contest right here should be the poster child for why conference expansion stinks. 11 weeks in and I have no idea if GT is any good or not. That shouldn’t be possible. Regardless, these in-state-but-out-of-conference foes face off this weekend. I do believe Haynes King is versatile enough to keep this one interesting for awhile, but one player isn’t enough to beat the Speeders and Best (see what I did there?). Bulldogs pull away in the second half. UGA: 38—GT: 20

Fightin' Texas Aggies @ Texas Longhorns

Draper: Fool a guy once, guilt to that dude.  Fool a fellow twice...  I keep falling for the Horns. I just can't believe they're as so-so as they've looked.  The Aggies have been playing with fire and they feel like they're going to get tagged.  It's possible that it won't be until Atlanta, but rivalries are fickle courtesans.  Reed looked below average against the Cocks for a half then blew up to keep the Ags undefeated.  I feel like Texas is ready to have another OU type explosion of 'we are actually not terrible!'  Austin, ghosts of the past, and Battered Aggie Disease elicit recollections of the #1 Longhorns.  Aggies: 17--Horns: 20

Hoying: The Lone Star Showdown could just as easily be called the Fool's Gold Bowl: for one of these two, for the hype they got entering the season, and for the other, the faith they're being shown now. Texas's struggles have been well trod by now: starting at #1 preseason before discovering that Arch wasn't the nation's top young QB after all, and the rushing attack hasn't worked down the stretch either. Their in-state rivals have avoiding the losing side of the scoreboard but they literally haven't faced a single school in the top half of the SEC standings, and have let lesser foes like Auburn and Arkansas hang around for far longer than they should have, to say nothing of the 2nd Half Cocky Collapse that saved the Aggies' undefeated season against South Carolina in College Station. There's a good chance the Aggies have already enjoyed their last win this season, now that it's nothing but big boys going forward. Actually, let's go ahead and say that. Texas uses up whatever they've been saving this season to sow the seeds of doubt in their rivals. Aggies: 24--Horns: 27 

Schweinfurth: I have greater faith in the Aggies D than Arch. Texas has been up and down like a roller coaster while the Aggies have everything ahead. Are the Horns dangerous? Yes. Will they win? No. Aggies:17—Horns: 10
Seeberg: Well, probably the inverse of what everyone thought this one would look like at season’s end. Against all odds, the Aggies have avoided their usual late season collapse- despite their best efforts against South Carolina a couple weeks back- and sit at 11-0. Also against all odds, they have exactly 1 win against a currently ranked opponent…and it wasn’t even in conference play! Yet another case for how lousy conference expansion has been. On the flip side, the Longhorns are better than they were week 1 against the Buckeyes, but still not the juggernaut that a lot of people foresaw preseason. I wonder if SC didn’t give Arch and Sark a blueprint for scoring virtually at will. I still don’t trust the Aggies until they do it. Horns up in Austin! Aggies: 17—Horns: 24

SATURDAY THE 29TH

Coral Gables Hurricanes @ Pittsburgh Panthers

Draper: I find it difficult to really give 2 craps about this contest. Are either of these squads decent? Eh, decent is about right. Carson Beck can't stop throwing picks and Pitt is the definition of ordinary.  Neither the Canes nor Panthers control their destiny, but the Canes are playing for the possibility of an at-large bid.  It's still not looking good, but they need this and need it badly.  Honestly, I don't know...which gives an easy decision---Eff the Canes.  Canes: 20--Panthers: 24

Hoying: Pat Narduzzi laid out the plan for Pitt two weeks ago: lose to ND by 100 and then beat GT and the Hurricanes, and you're playing for the ACC title. Go ahead and check boxes one and two, and now the Canes head north for the last piece of the puzzle. Of course, this doesn't have any significance if Virginia and the Ponies take care of business against their respective underdog opponents on Saturday, but when has anything in the ACC gone according to plan this season? You'll never believe this, but Da U has faceplanted again after another hot start and waves of plaudits awarded by anyone desperate not to recognize the Buckeyes as this year's school to beat. The offense isn't consistent enough and Beck appears to turn into a turnover factory when the result is in doubt. Another squad living solely off of an early season win over the Fighting Irish (see also above). But, again, those are the very Irish that could have walloped Pitt by a hundred just two weeks ago if they'd wanted to. The ceiling for the Panthers is just too low, and while the Canes don't really have a realistic path to the ACC title, they're still in the thick of the Playoff hunt and aren't going to let an opportunity slip away for the second year in a row. Canes: 31--Panthers: 20

Schweinfurth: The ACC is a crap show. The Canes had this conference in hand and let it slip away. Pitt isn’t great and I can’t get support the Panthers after what the Irish did last week. Canes win but Beck throws a few INTs for fun. Canes: 30—Panthers: 17
Seeberg: Again- are either of squads actually good? Frankly, I wish I knew. Pitt had ND, GT and the Canes to end their season. I think we all thought they would rise up and get one of those wins. Turns out it was Georgia Tech. With the Canes still vying for an at-large CFP bid, they should have enough to play for to avoid laying an egg. Canes pull away late. Canes: 38—Pitt: 23

Vanderbilt 'Dores @ Tennessee Volunteers

Draper: Does the fantasy season have a fairy tale ending for the Dores and send Pavia to NY or do the Vols ruin the best season their rival has had....ever? This being in Knoxville will really give Vandy headaches.  I cannot be convinced UT is that good, but they'll be up for this one.  It feels like it's the hour in which the carriage turns back into the gourd for the Dores.  I can't go against Rocky Top in Knoxville here.  (It's no 'Neyland North', but....)  Vandy: 24--UT: 30

Hoying: What has Tennessee learned since losing to the Sooners? The Vols had little trouble working the ball down the field that day but turnovers allowed OU to hang around until they could deliver a late knockout blow. I would advise not allowing Diego Pavia to hang around; he's a little bit of a psycho and I would think he's still rather sore about being bottled up by the Tennessee defense last year in Nashville. I get the feeling that one of these two could have caused a headache or two in the Playoff had they gotten there, if only they could have stopped shooting their foot off again and again this season. The other rode their generational QB as far as they could go, which appears will be just short of their first ever 10 win season (at least until the bowls get underway). Vandy: 27--UT: 31

Schweinfurth: I don’t know how to feel about either of these two. The ‘Dores are really just Pavia and not a lot else. The Vols appear to be a little better. I’ll take the Vols, but only because it’s on Rocky Top. Vandy: 28—UT: 38
Seeberg: Hey it’s an in-state-in-conference rivalry! Let’s be real though: this one has been largely one-sided in the Vols’ favor throughout its history. This year, however, Vandy is quite possibly the better of the two; however, in this wacky sport of college football we all love, that hardly guarantees victory. Vandy is still in the running for an at-large bid with a little help. That, however, will also serve the Vols’ desire to play spoiler, especially in the friendly confines of Neyland South. I just can’t see Vandy getting enough stops through four quarters. Cue up Rocky Top, Stewie! Vandy: 24—UT: 35

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ That School Up North

Draper: They can't keep getting away with this.....The goal for the Buckeyes is (honestly) the exact replica of past years: don't. beat. yourself.  If the Bucks avoid turnovers and just play the way they are capable, there won't be an issue. If they try to beat the ghosts of Wolverine past, there could be trouble.  Focus on winning against the 2025 Wolverines. Don't let past years hurt you again.  The key here is the strong and steady defense.  Honestly, they haven't gotten a ton of pressure this year, but the run defense needs to bottle the Blue while the secondary avoids giving up the big play.  I don't see Underwood beating us over the top.  Sayin and #4 need to connect on a couple of plays, but just avoid giving those jerks short fields and we'll be fine. The perfect ending would be a solid win, shaking hands, and confidently walking off the field afterwards.  Show the Blue that they aren't worth the effort to us.  Defense squeezes the life out while the offense does enough to (finally) return to Indy.  Go Bucks! Beat Blue! OSU: 30--TTUN: 17

Hoying: There's no need to attach undue fear to this one, Buckeye Nation. I understand the desire to look back at the last four debacles in this rivalry and try to find the secret sauce for ensuring a different result this year. But it was never just one repeating factor, not even the guy on the sideline calling the plays. One year it's your run defense, one year it's execution on offense and punting/kicking, one year you just get beat by a better (or at least equally good) squad, and...well, 2022 was just a horribly called and played contest (plus another glaring factor that apparently doesn't rise to the level of any penalties of note). The good news is that last year was a near total fluke, and the Buckeyes appear resolved not to let it define their destiny in any sense going forward. Last year I expressed concern about how tight Day was acting this week, especially in contrast to his confident aura the prior week against the top 5 Hoosiers. But I think he's finally realized that he just needs to be Ryan Day, the 90%+ winning coach. You don't have to put TTUN on a pedestal the way Tress the Wolverine Slayer did, not when you have the best squad in the nation week after week. Coop-style preparation is fine as long as it isn't bundled with Coop-style pants crapping day-of decisions. The Buckeyes have gone on the road and played decent opponents this year, and the Washington and Illinois tilts weren't in any level of doubt at any point past the third quarter. The Silver Bullets are about to unleash an attack unlike any that Bryce Underwood has seen at any point in his life, and the Wolverine rushing attack isn't going to be good enough to undo his blunders. All of Day's tinkering on offense is about to be distilled down to what hurts the Corn and Blue to the greatest extent, whether that's a freshly rested JJ over the top or a battle tested Bo up the gut. The day has arrived for the streak to be reset: let's run it to 9 or 10 this go around. OSU: 27--TTUN: 10

Schweinfurth: This is the real one, and Ryan Day is due. I truly believe deep down Day learned his lesson last year. Call the plan that your guys are best at. That’s not running head long into a brick wall over and over. TTUN’s pass defense isn’t great. Let JJ and Carnell eat in this one. This also feels like another big day for Klare. I can’t see TTUN scoring over 10. This d is too good and disguises coverages too well. Go Bucks! Beat Blue! OSU: 35—TTUN: 9
Seeberg: Well folks, we have arrived. Season went way too fast, as usual. Reports at the Woody suggest this year’s Buckeye iteration is as relaxed as anyone has seen under Day, focused but not on edge. Last year, the pressure absolutely got to the coaching staff, but a natty and a large reshuffling has worked wonders. If 4 and 17 are 90%+, then TTUN’s iffy (at best) pass defense is in a world of hurt, even in snowy conditions. I think a plan along the lines of 2018 would be excellent- the year when Haskins tore their #1 defense apart with crossing routes and short passes galore. To be fair, I don’t expect 62 points. I do, however, expect a turnover or two out of Underwood to set up our offense in good field position. A pick six isn’t off the table either. As long as Sayin stays J-Cool, and the staff doesn’t pucker, there’s no need for this to be a 4-quarter contest. Get out early, quiet that hideous hole in the ground, and let Buckeye Nation relax by when Hang on Sloopy hits. Go Bucks, beat TTUN. OSU: 31—TTUN: 13

Upset Special

Draper: LSU over OU
Hoying: Virginia Tech over Virginia

Schweinfurth: Washington over Oregon
Seeberg: Cal over the Ponies

Week 13: Antepiece

Standings:

1.) Schweinfurth 41-11 (0-12 upset)
2.) Hoying 39-13 (2-10 upset)
3.) Seeberg 35-17 (3-9 upset)
3.) Draper 35-17 (1-11 upset)

Per TVTropes.org: "An antepiece is a seemingly innocuous task that precedes a great-big-difficult-challenge, and gives you subtle hints about how you should deal with the great-big-challenge that you're about to confront." This week provides one last dry run for our beloved Buckeyes before the great big challenges begin to pile up in earnest.

Southern California Trojans @ Oregon Ducks

Draper: I think this game is much bigger than the wiseguys in Vegas (which likely means I'm wrong).  I really don't get the Oregon love.  They were beat at home by a very good IU team (during the day), struggled mightily against the Hawkeyes (probably should have lost), and lest we forget, went to double OT vs a Penn State team that <checks notes> just got their first B1G win in mid November.  The problem is that USC is incredibly inconsistent and usually struggles on the road. Eugene is a tough place to play, but it's a 3:30 kickoff (and IU had no problem).  Jayden Maiava has what it takes to pull this off (his name is Makai Lemon), but the fear of another pooping the bed on the road is there.  Oregon will ground and pound against a suspect (at best) Trojan defense and do enough to get the win, but it will be a battle.  I won't be shocked if Lincoln Riley rolls a seven and the Trojans become the new playoff hopeful in the B1G, but I'll be boring and pick the Ducks.  USC: 24--Ore: 27

Hoying: Are we sure that Oregon is good? The advanced stats love them (4th in SP+, for example), but the Ducks have played in 3 big games (OK, 1 big and 2 medium) and walked away with a walk off lead-changing FG victory, a double OT victory, and a 2-score home loss. I'm not convinced that they're trustworthy, but a team I like even less is USC on the road. As good as the Trojans have been at home (except for playing Iowa, the Big Ten's ultimate monkey wrench), their defense (what little of it existed in the first place) hasn't traveled this season. Oregon QB Dante Moore isn't producing at Dillon Gabriel levels yet; of course, wide receiver injuries don't help either (*nervous laugh*). But Notre Dame provided a blueprint for crushing the Trojans even if your team is over-reliant on the ground game, and nobody runs the ball better than the Ducks. Oregon cements a return to the Playoff and leaves USC still waiting for their first appearance. USC: 23--Ore: 31

Schweinfurth: This feels like a matchup that favors the Ducks. The Trojan defense doesn't appear like it can slow this Ducks team down. If USC is going to win, they will have to turn this into a massive shootout. I just don't see it. USC: 17--Ore: 35
Seeberg: This is a big one for the B1G. A USC win gets 4 playoff teams for the conference again. Sadly for the Trojans, Reggie Bush and Co. aren't galloping in to save the day. Improved play in the trenches (see: USC's dominance of TTUN) keeps them in it, but too much Dante Moore wins out over 4 quarters. USC: 24--Ore: 34

Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: Don't. Get. Hurt.  With the trashy weather in Columbus right now, I'll be pretty surprised if we see Jeremiah or Carnell for much time unless there's residual Heisman hopes.  Sayin will play with the hope of getting that ugly second half vs. UCLA out of his mouth.  This should be a nice warm up for the Buckeye rushing attack as Buttgers run D is atrocious (little different next week).  Hopefully the Bucks can get some of the line issues tightened up <ahem....Tegra>.  The defense will have a slight test as Rutgers has the ability to move the ball through the air (also different from next week).  I'll be interested to see how the defense performs against a decent passing attack.  Rutgers trades a few blows, but the Buckeyes pull away and coast to turn the attention to the dark cloud up north.  The rain and rushing attack should keep the clock moving.  Stay healthy (PLEASE!!!!).  Rut: 13--OSU: 38

Hoying: "Gee, it sure is boring around here." "My boy, this peace is what all true warriors strive for!" "I just wonder what Michigan's up to..." The Buckeyes have been making the most of extended garbage time over the last two weeks, managing to pile points on long after the starters have been pulled. And this week, garbage time may come earlier than expected as one or both of the nation's top receivers may be on double secret injury probation once again. That means one more chance to get the running game going and nail down Sayin's timing with his backup receivers (and the squad of tight ends we've been rotating all year), just in case throwing to Smith and Tate over and over and over fails to work at some point during the Playoff. Rutgers brings a better-than-usual offense to Columbus this time but their defense is so awful that they aren't going to be able to match Ohio State score for score. With the Scarlet Knights one game away from bowl eligibility and facing a more winnable game at home against Penn State next week, both of these teams will be eager to leave this game behind as soon as possible. RSUNJ: 10--OSU: 34

Schweinfurth: The theme of this one for the Bucks is just get healthy. Ohio State can crush Rutgers without Smith and Tate, and that's okay. Keep Julian upright and out of the game as soon as possible. On both sides of the ball, identify what doesn't work and then just beat the crap of out it. This is can be a true prep game for next week. Run the ball, stay healthy and get ready for war. Rut: 7--OSU: 42
Seeberg: Ah, senior (and underclassmen we all know are leaving) day. Shame we can't recognize Downs and Reese and Tate like the seniors. In any event, this one looks to be another "boring" win like Purdue, particularly if 4 and 17 sit. Maybe a pick 6 or another return TD will spice things up? Regardless, I'll take boring wins over those inexplicable Urban losses any time. For God's sake keep everyone healthy for the 29th. Hope Schiano tries some more funny business and gets his ass reamed again. Rut: 10--OSU: 37

Upset Special

Draper: Wisconsin over Illinois
Hoying: Kentucky over Vanderbilt

Schweinfurth: Maryland over Michigan
Seeberg: Arkansas over Texas