COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF CHAMPIONSHIP - OHIO STATE VS. NOTRE DAME

Final Standings:

1.) Draper 53-18 (2-12 upset)
2.) Hoying 52-19 (3-11 upset)
3.) Seeberg 51-20 (3-11 upset)
4.) Schweinfurth 48-23 (1-13 upset)

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Draper: The day has finally arrived, and the story of the season will finally have been written.  Will this Buckeye class live forever as gladiators that arose from the ashes to be crowned kings or live in infamy as the top class that never beat TTUN or won any hardware?  After suffering the slings and arrows of the fanbase, I’d be hard pressed to have found a team that has rallied more strongly to each other, to their coach, and to a mission.  This is the day where it comes to fruition.  From an Xs-and-Os standpoint, the Buckeyes have advantages all over the field. The one advantage held by the Irish would be the mobile nature of Riley Leonard.  I expect Downs to play a lot of the game in the box to curtail the running and daring Leonard to go over the top where Ransom and Co. will be waiting.  Much of the onus will fall on Cody Simon’s shoulders to muster the run defense and keep the bullets tight in the run game.  The D-line will get pressure against a good Irish O-line with the freshman left tackle.  On the other side of the ball, Howard will continue dealing.  Most talk about the Irish secondary (which is very good), but I believe the Longhorn secondary is better. Expect Smith to get involved this game more, because the Irish can’t hold up in the front seven without support. If he is taken out, the myriad other weapons will be activated.  Tre busts a few chunk plays, Q pounds the rock for short yardage, Howard deals and runs more than expected, and the receivers ball out as usual.  If we don’t play the UM ‘shoot ourselves in the foot at every juncture game’, I don’t see the Irish path to victory.  Keep it clean, limit turnovers, play your game, and we hoist the trophy tonight.  One more, then forever. Go Bucks! OSU: 27--ND: 13
Hoying: Unless you thought that the five advantages for the Irish that I had to rack my brain to produce are all total gamechangers, you already know who I’m picking in this one. The Buckeyes have proven this season that they can lose to an inferior, borderline-bad team (albeit one on a steep upswing). But as I said in my Tennessee preview, that basically required the Buckeye offense to do exactly as much, no more, no less, as it took to lose that game. Every game since has proven that Chip Kelly took the loss to TTUN as personally as Knowles took the loss to Oregon. I think the Irish are going to need all of their lucky charms to win this one. Riley Leonard is just plain bad under pressure, and none of the Buckeyes’ Playoff opponents have found a way to slow down the Buckeye pass rush, even with enough opposing offensive lines dishing out more hugs than the Tanner family on Full House. And they haven’t faced near the injuries that Notre Dame has. Joe Alt isn’t walking through that door anytime soon to save them. The Irish pass defense is elite, but they’re not good enough to manage Smith, Egbuka, and Tate one-on-one. You cheat back a little and that opens the door for Judkins and Henderson to do what Chip Trayanum and, well, Henderson did to them last year. Notre Dame does not have the interior line strength to put six in the box and dare Ohio State to run. Basically, they have to hope that Howard completely implodes to the point that it makes his performance on November 30th look like Dwayne Haskins’, then turn the resulting basket of sacks and turnovers into short enough fields that the Silver Bullets don’t have time to bend before they break. This is the most pissed off Ohio State team since…well, the last time these two met in the postseason, and we saw what happened on that day even after Joey Bosa’s career ended on the ticky-tackiest targeting call this side of Denzel Ward’s BBQ Shack. The gate is wide and the way is easy that leads to destruction, and those Ohio State opponents who enter by it are many. The gate is narrow and the way is hard, that leads to life against the Buckeyes, and those who find it are few. They won’t find it tonight. OSU: 28—ND: 13
Schweinfurth: The long and winding road of this season ends tonight. A lot of ills and wounds can be healed by one more victory. Jack Sawyer and company have been playing the type of defense Buckeye fans have been clamoring for since the 2014 team. The Silver Bullets have been absolutely dominant all season. One more test in a bit of a paper tiger offense. If the Bullets can keep the Irish offense bottled up, it could be over quick. Especially if Notre Dame decides man coverage is a good idea. There are so many weapons on the Buckeye offense and I'm not sure the Irish have faced a team like this. The Irish offensive line is beat up (yes, so is Ohio State's, but they had time to adjust) and Sawyer, JTT, and Tyliek should eat well. Finally, this team plays hard for Ryan Day. They love the man, and I get it. Lou Holtz started running his mouth again (FWIW) and my have started writing checks the Irish can't cash. Go Bucks. Let's get #9! OSU: 31--ND: 10
Seeberg:  Look, this game has been broken down ad nauseum the last week and change. The fact is that there are more ways to victory for the scarlet and gray. Talent and scheme favor the Buckeyes. But the last two years have taught us that this will still be a four quarter contest. I hope to see a similar defensive plan as Oregon. Simon spied Gabriel beautifully and first-read throws were largely taken away. Another fast start is paramount to get the Irish uncomfortable and for our seniors. They have prepared and preached about playing one more week in the scarlet and gray. Well, there’s no more games now. An early deficit coupled with that realization could be disastrous. But despite the circuitous route, this team is right where many of us thought they would be when things kicked off 5(!) months ago. In recent Buckeye history, this game has the feel of 2023 OSU-PSU to me. Bucks will appear the superior team but ND won’t beat themselves and hang in well past half. In the end, however, a big drive or a clutch stop (preferably both) will finally put the golden domers away. Enjoy the night Buckeye Nation! OSU: 24—ND: 13

Ten Reasons Ohio State Beats Notre Dame

1. The Safety Dance

When Ohio State hired Jim Knowles to take a hatchet to the incompetent defense that cost the Buckeyes a natty (2020) and their longest ever streak in The Game (2021), they were expecting the same kind of three high safety driven scheme that Knowles had run at Oklahoma State. And they implemented it fairly well in 2022, with Tanner McCalister following Knowles from the other OSU to teach Ronnie Hickman and Lathan Ransom how the scheme worked. But I doubt that Knowles could have foreseen the kind of talent he'd have at his disposal on the back end for Ohio State this year. Ransom's still here, and he's the highest-graded run defender in the country. Caleb Downs might just be the best defender in the country, period. I can't recall a play this season where I thought, "Man, Caleb, what are you doing?" but there seems to be at least one in every game where I'm not convinced the guy is human. Throw in last year's elite nickelback Jordan Hancock to round out the 3-safety look and you'll not find a better deep threat container and run game neutralizing combination anywhere in college football.

2. Ask and You Shall Receive

Notwithstanding Ohio State's elite safety unit, Notre Dame has put the best performing pass defense of any team on the field this fall (and winter). But they haven't seen anything like what Ohio State's about to roll out on them. Last time the Irish took the field they did not allow a single reception to a wide receiver. But that's Penn State for you; Ohio State allowed three receptions to wide receivers in Happy Valley earlier this season. The only team that Notre Dame has seen with receiver talent in the same galaxy as Ohio State is USC, and they allowed 360 yards through the air and 3 TDs to the Trojans. Oregon decided to play man-to-man coverage against Jeremiah Smith and paid dearly. Notre Dame has pledged to do the same; let's see if there's a man among them who can stop a properly motivated #4.

3. H-O-R-W-A-R-D

All the wide receiver talent in the world doesn't make much of a difference if the man behind center can't get them the ball. Look no further than (no, not Ohio State last year, leave Kyle McCord alone), let's say, LSU pre-Burrow. After McCord declared his intentions to leave and it became really, really obvious that Devin Brown and Lincoln Kienholz weren't going to be the answer, Buckeye Nation was a bit frustrated to miss out on Dillon Gabriel and Cam Ward to pick up...Will Howard? I mean, yeah, nice Big 12 championship, but the last transfer QB we picked up in a pinch was one of the top recruits in his year and left thanks to criminal mismanagement of his talents by his Georgia Bulldogs. It felt like with Howard, you knew what you were getting at this point. I thought if he could be as good as replacement-level JT Barrett, the Buckeyes might have a chance. Folks, he's been better. Outside of a clunker against you-know-who, Howard has been one of the steadiest hands in college football, with a 72.6% completion percentage that ranks #1 in Ohio State history and one of the top QB ratings across the entire sport. Riley Leonard is a great dual threat QB in his own right but I wouldn't expect him to engineer a 13 play, 88 yard drive with 7 completions like Will used to put Texas away.

4. I've Aged You Well. Some Might Say Perfect

This year has been an interesting reversal of fortune for the collective age of the Scarlet and Gray. A program that's used to sending its top talent early to the NFL and facing scrappy underdogs of second-tier senior talent suddenly finds itself holding on to the vast majority of the landmark 2021 class for one more year. And people say NIL is destroying the sport. From here in Columbus, it looks like it's saving college football, convincing players to stick around for one more year who'd otherwise be long gone. Joliet Jack spent the offseason putting the band back together, and the fruits of his labor are a starting lineup featuring 13 senior or grad starters, the vast majority of which could easily have found playing time in the NFL this year. Setting aside the obvious raw ability of this group, their combined experience and leadership are precisely the intangibles any championship team needs.

5. Bustin' Makes Me Feel Bad

It feels strange to say, but the Buckeyes have been relatively lucky from an injury standpoint this year. Yes, they were thin at offensive line even when the season began, and yes, they lost their two best players on the line, forcing them to rethink how to put together an effective run blocking scheme. But Notre Dame's been getting punched in the gut again and again this season, up to and including their last outing in the semifinals against Penn State. From All-American cornerbacks, to offensive linemen, defensive linemen, a kicker, and even their star running back. It's gotten so bad that starting lineman Charles Jagusah, ruled out for the season during training camp, might be back for the championship...to replace another lineman, Antoine Knapp, who left the Penn State game with an injury. The Irish have weathered the storm to the tune of a 13-game winning streak, but when you're already working at a talent disadvantage, you don't want to be breaking in new starters against the best team you'll face all year.

6. Line Dance

Speaking of breaking in a new-look offensive line, the Irish have come up with the worst possible time to do so. The Buckeye defensive front has been an absolute wrecking crew throughout the Playoff, totaling 12 sacks, 17 TFLs, and 10 pass breakups, along with a pretty significant forced fumble and touchdown to clinch a spot in the championship. Jack Sawyer in particular has been playing like a man on fire, which is even more impressive considering every opposing tackle along the way has mistaken him for Olaf and given him a warm hug. But with Notre Dame starting a new left tackle this week, look for the damage to be done on the other side of the D line by JT Tuimoloau in his swan song. A repeat of the 2022 Penn State game wouldn't be out of the question.

7. Running on Empty

As stated above and in our list of Irish superlatives, Notre Dame covers the pass like no one else nationwide. It may surprise you to hear, then, that their run defense has been downright pedestrian. Part of this may be a defensive line that's a constant work of progress due to injury. But for whatever reason, the Buckeye offense, usually predicated on success through the air, may find some room to work on the ground after taking a step back against Texas. Notre Dame's elite rushing attack may be elite but Jeremiyah Love will have a lot harder time trying to run on TnT inside and Caleb and Lathan outside than Tre and Quinshon will finding room against a (relatively) soft Irish front. Look for Howard to have a game changing play like he did against Penn State and Texas as well.

8. Notre Dame Ain't Played Nobody, Pawwwwwl (until the Playoff)

The tone of the media was very different after Ohio State's loss to Oregon as compared to the treatment of Notre Dame after losing to Northern Illinois. The Irish had been riding high off of a season-opening road win over Texas A&M, but one untimely loss put their Playoff hopes on a razor's edge as early as week 2. The reason? A squishy soft schedule the rest of the way, which looks even worse in retrospect. The only team Notre Dame played in the regular season that was ranked going into bowl season was Army, and that was only because new rankings didn't go out after the Black Knights lost to Navy. The Irish have more than proven their mettle in the Playoff itself, as Indiana, Georgia, and Penn State are no joke, but Ohio State has been doing this all year. Notre Dame will be the sixth Playoff team the Buckeyes will have faced this season, seventh if you count Oregon twice. Basically everyone except the joke teams and Georgia. Ohio State's proven that they can lose to the mediocre as well as the great, but this will be the ultimate test for an Irish squad that had the luxury of sleeping through class until December's wake-up call.

9. Goldilocks Defense

The Buckeyes are knocking on the door of their first national title in ten years, but they came agonizingly close just two years ago. Facing off against the #1 team in the country, who would go on to the biggest national championship blowout in history just a week later, the Buckeyes surrendered an eleven-point 4th quarter lead to fall by one point to the national champs. Most emblematic of that collapse was a one-play, 76-yard drive to cut Ohio State's lead to 3. Lathan Ransom fell down in man coverage and there was no other safety to help him. The play served as a great microcosm of the overly aggressive Jim Knowles defense that worked like gangbusters in 2022 until Michigan and Georgia were able to exploit it mercilessly for a combined 86 points. In 2023, the Buckeye defense were more content to play contain and keep everything in front of them, which worked well all season until Missouri and, who else, were able to eventually wear down the Silver Bullets, who forced no turnovers to help out the insufficient Buckeye offenses in those games. This year, Knowles seems to have mixed the formula just right, and suddenly it's like watching the 2019 defense again, with a punishing line and suffocating secondary working hand in hand to create nightmares for opposing teams. Nowhere was this more evident than the crucial penultimate last series against the Longhorns, where the back seven held up the Texas offense just enough to allow the defensive line to stick the last dagger deep in the heart of Texas.

10. One More, Then Forever

If you haven't read Jack Sawyer's goodbye piece about what being a Buckeye means to him, by all means go read that instead of this (although we'd love you to come back and finish this, too). The 2021 Buckeye class features some of the best to ever put on the Scarlet and Gray at their respective positions. And while these players have won 46 games and never lost more than two games in a season (inshallah) or finished outside the top ten, they haven't attained a single one of the team's goals in any of their seasons. If they don't want to leave Ohio State as the most accomplished group of failures in program history, they'll need to take advantage of their one last chance to write their page in the chronicles of Buckeye legends. As mentioned in the schedule analysis above, this Buckeye team has proven it can beat multiple top teams in a season, and they've had to string a few together by the sheer structure of the new Playoff. Time to put it all together and deliver four years' worth of frustration to whatever poor saps stand between them and immortality.

Five Reasons Notre Dame Beats Ohio State

Traditionally, leading up to a national championship game featuring Ohio State, we at Let's Go Bucks! set forth ten reasons why each team could emerge victorious from the season's final clash. This year will be a little different. Stay tuned for ten reasons why Ohio State beats Notre Dame, but the case for the Golden Domers will be limited to five arguments only. No disrespect to the Irish, it's just that their march onward to victory is narrower and comprises fewer paths than the Buckeyes'.

1. No Fly Zone 

Ohio State may feature one of the best one-two punches at running back in the nation, but the Buckeyes continue make their hay through the air, especially in the Playoff. That's bad news when you're facing the nation's #1 pass defense in both success rate and EPA. In contrast to Texas, who also had an elite pass defense and was able to frustrate the Buckeye air attack to an extent, the Irish rely heavily on Cover-1 and other man concepts rather than zone. Time will tell if the Irish secondary can win some one-on-one battles or if this game turns into Rose Bowl II: Lost in Atlanta. It's worth noting that Ohio State is right behind the Irish in pass defense (#2 in success rate and efficiency, #1 in yards per game). But either way, "ND" doesn't stand for "No Defense" anymore.

2. Rush Hour

The Irish superlatives aren't limited to the defensive side of the ball. Notre Dame also has the sport's top rushing attack by EPA, although their success rate is a less impressive 45.1%. Their ground game is powered by a true three-pronged attack, as each of QB Riley Leonard and RBs Jadarian Price and Jeremiyah Love have rushed for over 700 yards this season and average over 5 yards per carry. Similarly to Ohio State, Jeremiyah is the standout among the group; you may remember his 98 yard scamper to open the scoring in this year's Playoff (and would have been sufficient to singlehandedly deliver the Irish the victory absent garbage time). The problem is that he, and the entire Notre Dame run game by extension, have been hobbled since being injured in the Georgia game. Love was a singular bright spot in the Penn State game, managing to grind out over 4 yards a carry and a heroic TD run, but the same Penn State rush D that was steamrolled by Henderson, Judkins, and Howard stood strong against the nation's ostensibly best rushing attack. Love sill need to be at his best for the Irish to have their best opportunities to move the ball.

3. Turnover a New Shamrock

How do you keep up with a team with a fast firing offense? Steal a few possessions back via turnover. Nobody does this better than the Irish, who have absconded with 32 total takeaways in 15 games. That's one better than Texas, who played 16, and thirteen better than Ohio State. And both teams have lost the same number of turnovers in return. Ohio State has managed to best, and even turn(over) the tables on, some of the other top turnover margin teams in Indiana and Iowa, and the aforementioned ball-hawking Texas. But the Buckeyes have two losses this year, and they turned the ball over twice in both.

4. You Guys Don't Give Up

After comfortably controlling each of its first two Playoff games, the Irish found themselves in a 10-0 hole to Penn State that persisted until a field goal closing the half chipped into Penn State's lead. Notre Dame fought back, gained the lead, lost the lead again, and rallied once more to win on a field goal in the final seconds. Ohio State fought through a similar deficit against Penn State but never trailed in the second half. The Buckeyes haven't trailed in the Playoff for a second, and in their two losses, they never trailed to Oregon by more than 1 point or Michigan by more than 7. If this game comes down to the wire, one of these teams hasn't cracked since a bizarre giveaway game against Northern Illinois.

5. Heart of a Buckeye

Of course, this culture starts at the top, and the Irish seem to have finally found their man in former Buckeye linebacker Marcus Freeman. Freeman's had his share of speed bumps, including headscratching losses to Marshall, Stanford, and Northern Illinois. But he's led the Irish to their first major bowl wins since their New Year's 1994 consolation prize against Texas A&M. Brian Kelly was a step in the right direction, putting Notre Dame firmly back in national title contention after wandering the desert under Weis, Willingham, Davie, and even late Lou Holtz. But Freeman has proven that Notre Dame's record is not just the product of a weak regular season schedule; the Irish have hung with and dispatched the best the Playoff has to offer.

Week 18: Ewers Discretion Advised

Standings:

1.) Draper 51-18 (2-12 upset)
2.) Hoying 50-19 (3-11 upset)
3.) Seeberg 49-20 (3-11 upset)
4.) Schweinfurth 46-23 (1-13 upset)

You wanted championship access for the little guy? You wanted Cinderella stories of the underdog snakebiting a top dog on the way to the top? Then you came to the wrong place; in all the storied 11-year history of the College Football Playoff, there haven't been a more blue-blooded final four than you'll see this year. Enjoy the combined wisdom of the Let's Go Bucks! crew before you sit glued to your TV screen like Stu Pickles.

THURSDAY, JANUARY 9

Orange Bowl: Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions

Draper: As the semis were set, I was pretty confident in my picks for the title, but continuing to look at the Orange Bowl, I've become more conflicted.  Let me be clear: I don't think either of these teams are near the level of Ohio State or Oregon (or maybe Texas).  Notre Dame was one of the hottest teams entering the playoff and have continued their pace, but Penn State has looked good as well.  The issue was the competition.  Notre Dame dumped an overrated IU team (but the final score was closer than expected) and outclassed a depleted UGA team by killing it in the middle 8 with turnovers and special teams.  Penn State easily dispatched SMU and played a solid game against Boise State, but does anyone really care? This game is similar to the Sugar Bowl in which I expect a low scoring ugly slugfest.  Both defenses are stout with questionable offenses.  Love is banged up for the Irish, but Abdul Carter being a question mark evens the score.  Both QB's are fine, but nothing special.  After all is said and done, I going to stick with my initial instinct with the Irish (although I'm getting little voices telling me to be careful).  James Franklin always wins when favored and always loses when an underdog (last win as an underdog was 2021 and before that was 2016 vs OSU).  I guess it's a foregone conclusion... Here come the Irish.  ND: 20--PSU:17
Hoying: As we all predicted preseason, Notre Dame and Penn State are on the doorstep of a national championship appearance. And they’re doing it with some of the poorest QB play in the Playoff (Will Howard haters at FOX Sports notwithstanding). Fortunately, each team would rather run the ball than throw, Penn State because they have no receivers and Notre Dame because…er…their quarterback can’t throw. Riley Leonard can run though, and he put up a tidy 80 yards to pace the Irish against Georgia in the quarterfinals. Whom did Penn State play in the quarterfinals again? Oh, right, nobody, just like the nobody they played in the first round. Now that could work to their advantage, as they haven’t had to give any of their playoff prep away in snoozers against SMU and Boise State (no, the Lions were never going to lose that game). But I still don’t have a great deal of faith in James Franklin. Beating SMU and Boise isn’t beating the allegations, as the only two games Frames played this year on the level of Notre Dame were the two that Penn State lost. One because they couldn’t move the ball (Ohio State), and the other because they couldn’t stop their opponent (Oregon). Expect this game to look a lot more like the former than the latter, as ND continues to pitch gem after gem on defense (except against USC, but whoopsie, guess who also gave up a million points to the Trojans). Drew Allar simply doesn’t have it in him or the support around him to put the team on his shoulders with the game on the line, and when all else fails, sit back and wait for James Franklin to do something stupid. At least once this Thursday, expect the Hill Kitties to make those Georgia idiots who jumped offsides on Notre Dame’s fake punt look like the finest football minds this side of Let’s Go Bucks! ND: 24—PSU: 20
Schweinfurth: This game is two teams who play great defense, and two teams who play miserable offense. Both teams have good running backs and questionable quarterbacks. Penn State at least has Tyler Warren. Coaching advantage has to go to Notre Dame because James Franklin pees his pants in big games. **whispers** This is a big game. This feels like a 60 minute rock fight. Notre Dame lives off of turnovers. They turned Georgia over to death in the Sugar Bowl. I expect more of the same. Irish win. ND: 17--PSU: 14
Seeberg:  The year is 2019.  You're at Vegas and a hot streak at the blackjack table left you itching to put a few big chips on a college football bet.  Then you see a futures bet that makes you laugh out loud:  James Franklin wins two or more playoff games in his career at Penn State.  +50000.  You chuckle again.  Man, this is how Vegas makes their money eh?  I have no idea if that was a real bet on the board back then, but it sure sounds about right.  Somehow, Penn State managed to win TWO playoff games.  That said, both teams were outside the top 10 so, really, given their cupcake draw, it's not particularly surprising.  Things get markedly more difficult for Franklin when he plays a top 5 opponent, and Notre Dame fits that bill.  To me, Notre Dame feels like Ohio State lite.  Very good but not great defense and, at least in the regular season, very good but not great offense.  Ohio State, however, has risen almost exponentially on offense and stayed elite on D, and Notre Dame still looks like, well, Notre Dame.  Very good defense, and just enough points to make it hard for teams to hang for four quarters.  Meanwhile, Penn State was spotted 10 points at home against the Buckeyes this year and managed a whopping 1 FG the rest of the way.  Scoring 6 offensive points against the best defense you saw all year is a pretty poor omen (though they inexplicably dropped 37 on Oregon- which is when the Ducks' alarm bells should've sounded before playing the scarlet and gray again).  Both teams will struggle to score, which is a product of ND's middling offense and PSU's awful offensive coaching.  It feels like a very similar game to the OSU/PSU tilt in Happy Valley this year, so why not the same score.  Notre Dame advances to the title game.  ND: 20--PSU: 13

FRIDAY, JANUARY 10

Cotton Bowl: THE Ohio State University Buckeyes vs. Texas Longhorns

Draper: Another massive match for 2 teams that have been in the top 5 all season.  The Buckeyes are playing at a clip that the world hasn't seen in a long time.  If they continue this dominance, the CFP is over as no one is touching this squad at this level.  However, Texas has the athletes and coaches to muddy the waters.  Everyone is focused on the explosive Buckeye offense, but the real accolades should fall on Jim Knowles and the Silver Bullets who have been untouchable.  While Jeremiah Smith is a certified cheat code, Howard is playing off the charts, Egbuka, Tate, and Scott are spreading the field, and Judkins/Henderson are providing the 1-2 punch; the defense has stifled everything since the first meeting with Oregon in October.  Texas's defense will have some wrinkles for the Buckeyes as this is one of the best defenses we've faced all year, but I don't see how the Horns are going to outscore this juggernaut.  The path to success for the Horns is turnovers and special teams with a little Sark magic sprinkled on top.  If the Bucks play sound/turnover free football and Day/Kelly keep the defense on their heels in both the run and passing game, I just don't see the Longhorns scoring enough to match.  Ewers has had moments of brilliance but also some real headscratchers.  I wouldn't want to need my best game of the year against this ball-hawking defense.  Downs and Simon will remove the running game so if the corners can hold up, it should be the Buckeyes headed to Atlanta.  OSU: 30--UT: 13
Hoying: Is it possible for a top-five matchup against a team that was an unfavorable overtime period away from being the SEC champion to be a letdown game? The Buckeyes are fresh off of goosing the #1 team in the country, and while the advanced stats still like Texas a bit more than Oregon, it almost feels like the denouement to the 2024 season is already setting in. I’m sure that anyone in Buckeye Nation who remembers Quinn Ewers skipping town (especially Rick Ricart) doesn’t need any extra motivation, as his departure destroyed our post-CJ succession plan and made us rely on the merely very good Kyle McCord and a transfer QB. But that transfer QB has seen Texas before, and he hasn’t beaten them in 4 tries, including an overtime thriller last season. Howard has been playing like a man possessed this postseason, and he’s been given the green light to throw it up to Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka wherever they are on the field, single, double, or triple covered. Ryan Day has seized back control of the offense after the Michigan debacle and it’s going to be all gas no brakes from here on out. Texas is one of the few teams in the country with the horses in the secondary to make Howard pay on an errant throw, but then they’ll be faced with the problem of what to do when Quinn Ewers has the ball. The Longhorns’ scripted drives to start their two Playoff games have been works of art, but the Horns got bogged down against Arizona State until some 4th and 13 magic in overtime saved their season. If the Silver Bullet defense that suffocated Oregon shows up Friday night, Texas will struggle to get anything going. Look for some more spilling and killing, Caleb Downs roaming the middle of the field like Darth Maul waiting for Qui-Gon Jinn, and Jack Sawyer fighting off bear hug after bear hug to make Ewers’ day a living nightmare. There’s no Quan Cosby to bail you out late this time. OSU: 31—UT: 20
Schweinfurth: I feel pretty confident going into this game. The shackles have come off the offense and the defensive line is playing at an elite level. This feels like the 2014 team all over again. Big plays on offense with a suffocating defense. Jack Sawyer seems possessed. JJ Smith can't be covered. The running backs are hitting big chunk runs. The team we've seen the last two weeks is unbeatable. Seriously. The Rose Bowl could have been so much worse if Downs catches any of 3 (!) potential INTs. I don't really know what Texas tries to stop. Their only hope is to control the line of scrimmage with 4 lineman and pray that holds. Defensively, Knowles just need to keep calling the same plan and get home on Ewers. Hit him early and often. I'm sure Texas will try to go with the quick hitters to keep him upright, but Downs was all over that against Oregon. Ohio State is a pissed off team. Good luck America. OSU: 38--UT: 20
Seeberg: I am now, after two near-perfect playoff performances, 100% convinced that Ryan Day was doing his best Muhammad Ali impression all season long.  Playing rope a dope.  Milking the play clock, limiting the plays and the physical toll on his team.  Rotating lots of guys, even defensively the second half of the year.  All that just to peak at the right time and come out of the corner swinging, and right now, you can't argue with it.  The horrid game against TTUN is a product of his Cooper-like unfamiliarity with it being an out-of-Midwesterner.  Cooper's teams, however, also frequently laid eggs in bowl games, and this is clearly not the case with Day as he's already won 3 playoff games and a Rose Bowl.  The Longhorns roll in with a great defense and an...offense?  Quinn Ewers may have been a perfect-rated prospect, but he's not progressed nearly as much as most thought.  Perhaps he should've stayed in Columbus?  Regardless, he'll have to content with Jim Knowles' D that's calling all the right numbers.  The only clear mistake in his game plan against Tennessee was using a DE, usually Tuimoluau, as a spy against their mobile QB.  Simon took on those duties and was masterful, rarely letting Gabriel escape the pocket and closing like a freight train on his two sacks.  Ewers is far less mobile than Gabriel or Iamaleava, so that shouldn't be a concern, meaning Knowles can either bring 5 or drop 7.  Scary prospect either way.  Personally I'd love to see a zone blitz where the DE drops in front of a slant route.  Worked pretty well against Arkansas in "the game that didn't count because tattoos" and again in the Sugar Bowl against Bama where Steve Miller took it back to the house.  Either way, even if this performance is only near-near-perfect, both sides of the ball (and even 2/2 on field goals last week woohoo!)  are just clicking too well.  Bucks coast to the natty.  OSU: 38--UT: 23