Week 14: Taking the Fifth

Standings:

1.) Schweinfurth 43-11 (0-13 upset)
2.) Hoying 41-13 (2-11 upset)
3.) Seeberg 37-17 (3-10 upset)
3.) Draper 37-17 (2-11 upset)

It's been a long four years, Buckeye Nation, but we're nearly there. Here's to shutting up TTUN for the fifth year and beyond.

FRIDAY THE 28TH

Georgia Bulldogs @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Draper: This battle has been super interesting over the last few years.  After the Jackets were screwed last year in Athens, there is a touch of hope of knocking the Dawgs out in Clean Old-Fashioned Hate.  Sadly, I just don't see it happening.  Haynes King and Georgia Tech have petered out as the season has advanced while UGA appears to be getting stronger.  UGA is not the squad they have been over the past few years, but GT is DOA. Oh yeah, Tech sold the rights to holding the rivalry in Bobby Dodd.  Stupid 'neutral sites'.   UGA: 24--GT: 10

Hoying: Talk about two squads heading in opposite directions. After needing a late TD to get by Florida, the Bulldogs have taken a chainsaw to their foes the last few weeks, including crushing Texas two weeks ago. GT, no the other hand, has all but fallen out of ACC (and thus at this point, Playoff) contention after taking two losses and needing a last second FG against horrible Boston College saving the Jackets against losing three straight. Yes, Haynes King is always dangerous (and was near-lethal to the Dawgs last year), but Tech's defense is just so, so bad, which is a recipe for disaster against an offense hitting its stride at the right part of the season. UGA: 34--GT: 20

Schweinfurth: I don’t see where the Yellow Jackets can hang with the Dawgs. GT has gotten better this year, but I just don’t see it quite yet. UGA:31—GT 7
Seeberg: This contest right here should be the poster child for why conference expansion stinks. 11 weeks in and I have no idea if GT is any good or not. That shouldn’t be possible. Regardless, these in-state-but-out-of-conference foes face off this weekend. I do believe Haynes King is versatile enough to keep this one interesting for awhile, but one player isn’t enough to beat the Speeders and Best (see what I did there?). Bulldogs pull away in the second half. UGA: 38—GT: 20

Fightin' Texas Aggies @ Texas Longhorns

Draper: Fool a guy once, guilt to that dude.  Fool a fellow twice...  I keep falling for the Horns. I just can't believe they're as so-so as they've looked.  The Aggies have been playing with fire and they feel like they're going to get tagged.  It's possible that it won't be until Atlanta, but rivalries are fickle courtesans.  Reed looked below average against the Cocks for a half then blew up to keep the Ags undefeated.  I feel like Texas is ready to have another OU type explosion of 'we are actually not terrible!'  Austin, ghosts of the past, and Battered Aggie Disease elicit recollections of the #1 Longhorns.  Aggies: 17--Horns: 20

Hoying: The Lone Star Showdown could just as easily be called the Fool's Gold Bowl: for one of these two, for the hype they got entering the season, and for the other, the faith they're being shown now. Texas's struggles have been well trod by now: starting at #1 preseason before discovering that Arch wasn't the nation's top young QB after all, and the rushing attack hasn't worked down the stretch either. Their in-state rivals have avoiding the losing side of the scoreboard but they literally haven't faced a single school in the top half of the SEC standings, and have let lesser foes like Auburn and Arkansas hang around for far longer than they should have, to say nothing of the 2nd Half Cocky Collapse that saved the Aggies' undefeated season against South Carolina in College Station. There's a good chance the Aggies have already enjoyed their last win this season, now that it's nothing but big boys going forward. Actually, let's go ahead and say that. Texas uses up whatever they've been saving this season to sow the seeds of doubt in their rivals. Aggies: 24--Horns: 27 

Schweinfurth: I have greater faith in the Aggies D than Arch. Texas has been up and down like a roller coaster while the Aggies have everything ahead. Are the Horns dangerous? Yes. Will they win? No. Aggies:17—Horns: 10
Seeberg: Well, probably the inverse of what everyone thought this one would look like at season’s end. Against all odds, the Aggies have avoided their usual late season collapse- despite their best efforts against South Carolina a couple weeks back- and sit at 11-0. Also against all odds, they have exactly 1 win against a currently ranked opponent…and it wasn’t even in conference play! Yet another case for how lousy conference expansion has been. On the flip side, the Longhorns are better than they were week 1 against the Buckeyes, but still not the juggernaut that a lot of people foresaw preseason. I wonder if SC didn’t give Arch and Sark a blueprint for scoring virtually at will. I still don’t trust the Aggies until they do it. Horns up in Austin! Aggies: 17—Horns: 24

SATURDAY THE 29TH

Coral Gables Hurricanes @ Pittsburgh Panthers

Draper: I find it difficult to really give 2 craps about this contest. Are either of these squads decent? Eh, decent is about right. Carson Beck can't stop throwing picks and Pitt is the definition of ordinary.  Neither the Canes nor Panthers control their destiny, but the Canes are playing for the possibility of an at-large bid.  It's still not looking good, but they need this and need it badly.  Honestly, I don't know...which gives an easy decision---Eff the Canes.  Canes: 20--Panthers: 24

Hoying: Pat Narduzzi laid out the plan for Pitt two weeks ago: lose to ND by 100 and then beat GT and the Hurricanes, and you're playing for the ACC title. Go ahead and check boxes one and two, and now the Canes head north for the last piece of the puzzle. Of course, this doesn't have any significance if Virginia and the Ponies take care of business against their respective underdog opponents on Saturday, but when has anything in the ACC gone according to plan this season? You'll never believe this, but Da U has faceplanted again after another hot start and waves of plaudits awarded by anyone desperate not to recognize the Buckeyes as this year's school to beat. The offense isn't consistent enough and Beck appears to turn into a turnover factory when the result is in doubt. Another squad living solely off of an early season win over the Fighting Irish (see also above). But, again, those are the very Irish that could have walloped Pitt by a hundred just two weeks ago if they'd wanted to. The ceiling for the Panthers is just too low, and while the Canes don't really have a realistic path to the ACC title, they're still in the thick of the Playoff hunt and aren't going to let an opportunity slip away for the second year in a row. Canes: 31--Panthers: 20

Schweinfurth: The ACC is a crap show. The Canes had this conference in hand and let it slip away. Pitt isn’t great and I can’t get support the Panthers after what the Irish did last week. Canes win but Beck throws a few INTs for fun. Canes: 30—Panthers: 17
Seeberg: Again- are either of squads actually good? Frankly, I wish I knew. Pitt had ND, GT and the Canes to end their season. I think we all thought they would rise up and get one of those wins. Turns out it was Georgia Tech. With the Canes still vying for an at-large CFP bid, they should have enough to play for to avoid laying an egg. Canes pull away late. Canes: 38—Pitt: 23

Vanderbilt 'Dores @ Tennessee Volunteers

Draper: Does the fantasy season have a fairy tale ending for the Dores and send Pavia to NY or do the Vols ruin the best season their rival has had....ever? This being in Knoxville will really give Vandy headaches.  I cannot be convinced UT is that good, but they'll be up for this one.  It feels like it's the hour in which the carriage turns back into the gourd for the Dores.  I can't go against Rocky Top in Knoxville here.  (It's no 'Neyland North', but....)  Vandy: 24--UT: 30

Hoying: What has Tennessee learned since losing to the Sooners? The Vols had little trouble working the ball down the field that day but turnovers allowed OU to hang around until they could deliver a late knockout blow. I would advise not allowing Diego Pavia to hang around; he's a little bit of a psycho and I would think he's still rather sore about being bottled up by the Tennessee defense last year in Nashville. I get the feeling that one of these two could have caused a headache or two in the Playoff had they gotten there, if only they could have stopped shooting their foot off again and again this season. The other rode their generational QB as far as they could go, which appears will be just short of their first ever 10 win season (at least until the bowls get underway). Vandy: 27--UT: 31

Schweinfurth: I don’t know how to feel about either of these two. The ‘Dores are really just Pavia and not a lot else. The Vols appear to be a little better. I’ll take the Vols, but only because it’s on Rocky Top. Vandy: 28—UT: 38
Seeberg: Hey it’s an in-state-in-conference rivalry! Let’s be real though: this one has been largely one-sided in the Vols’ favor throughout its history. This year, however, Vandy is quite possibly the better of the two; however, in this wacky sport of college football we all love, that hardly guarantees victory. Vandy is still in the running for an at-large bid with a little help. That, however, will also serve the Vols’ desire to play spoiler, especially in the friendly confines of Neyland South. I just can’t see Vandy getting enough stops through four quarters. Cue up Rocky Top, Stewie! Vandy: 24—UT: 35

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ That School Up North

Draper: They can't keep getting away with this.....The goal for the Buckeyes is (honestly) the exact replica of past years: don't. beat. yourself.  If the Bucks avoid turnovers and just play the way they are capable, there won't be an issue. If they try to beat the ghosts of Wolverine past, there could be trouble.  Focus on winning against the 2025 Wolverines. Don't let past years hurt you again.  The key here is the strong and steady defense.  Honestly, they haven't gotten a ton of pressure this year, but the run defense needs to bottle the Blue while the secondary avoids giving up the big play.  I don't see Underwood beating us over the top.  Sayin and #4 need to connect on a couple of plays, but just avoid giving those jerks short fields and we'll be fine. The perfect ending would be a solid win, shaking hands, and confidently walking off the field afterwards.  Show the Blue that they aren't worth the effort to us.  Defense squeezes the life out while the offense does enough to (finally) return to Indy.  Go Bucks! Beat Blue! OSU: 30--TTUN: 17

Hoying: There's no need to attach undue fear to this one, Buckeye Nation. I understand the desire to look back at the last four debacles in this rivalry and try to find the secret sauce for ensuring a different result this year. But it was never just one repeating factor, not even the guy on the sideline calling the plays. One year it's your run defense, one year it's execution on offense and punting/kicking, one year you just get beat by a better (or at least equally good) squad, and...well, 2022 was just a horribly called and played contest (plus another glaring factor that apparently doesn't rise to the level of any penalties of note). The good news is that last year was a near total fluke, and the Buckeyes appear resolved not to let it define their destiny in any sense going forward. Last year I expressed concern about how tight Day was acting this week, especially in contrast to his confident aura the prior week against the top 5 Hoosiers. But I think he's finally realized that he just needs to be Ryan Day, the 90%+ winning coach. You don't have to put TTUN on a pedestal the way Tress the Wolverine Slayer did, not when you have the best squad in the nation week after week. Coop-style preparation is fine as long as it isn't bundled with Coop-style pants crapping day-of decisions. The Buckeyes have gone on the road and played decent opponents this year, and the Washington and Illinois tilts weren't in any level of doubt at any point past the third quarter. The Silver Bullets are about to unleash an attack unlike any that Bryce Underwood has seen at any point in his life, and the Wolverine rushing attack isn't going to be good enough to undo his blunders. All of Day's tinkering on offense is about to be distilled down to what hurts the Corn and Blue to the greatest extent, whether that's a freshly rested JJ over the top or a battle tested Bo up the gut. The day has arrived for the streak to be reset: let's run it to 9 or 10 this go around. OSU: 27--TTUN: 10

Schweinfurth: This is the real one, and Ryan Day is due. I truly believe deep down Day learned his lesson last year. Call the plan that your guys are best at. That’s not running head long into a brick wall over and over. TTUN’s pass defense isn’t great. Let JJ and Carnell eat in this one. This also feels like another big day for Klare. I can’t see TTUN scoring over 10. This d is too good and disguises coverages too well. Go Bucks! Beat Blue! OSU: 35—TTUN: 9
Seeberg: Well folks, we have arrived. Season went way too fast, as usual. Reports at the Woody suggest this year’s Buckeye iteration is as relaxed as anyone has seen under Day, focused but not on edge. Last year, the pressure absolutely got to the coaching staff, but a natty and a large reshuffling has worked wonders. If 4 and 17 are 90%+, then TTUN’s iffy (at best) pass defense is in a world of hurt, even in snowy conditions. I think a plan along the lines of 2018 would be excellent- the year when Haskins tore their #1 defense apart with crossing routes and short passes galore. To be fair, I don’t expect 62 points. I do, however, expect a turnover or two out of Underwood to set up our offense in good field position. A pick six isn’t off the table either. As long as Sayin stays J-Cool, and the staff doesn’t pucker, there’s no need for this to be a 4-quarter contest. Get out early, quiet that hideous hole in the ground, and let Buckeye Nation relax by when Hang on Sloopy hits. Go Bucks, beat TTUN. OSU: 31—TTUN: 13

Upset Special

Draper: LSU over OU
Hoying: Virginia Tech over Virginia

Schweinfurth: Washington over Oregon
Seeberg: Cal over the Ponies

Week 13: Antepiece

Standings:

1.) Schweinfurth 41-11 (0-12 upset)
2.) Hoying 39-13 (2-10 upset)
3.) Seeberg 35-17 (3-9 upset)
3.) Draper 35-17 (1-11 upset)

Per TVTropes.org: "An antepiece is a seemingly innocuous task that precedes a great-big-difficult-challenge, and gives you subtle hints about how you should deal with the great-big-challenge that you're about to confront." This week provides one last dry run for our beloved Buckeyes before the great big challenges begin to pile up in earnest.

Southern California Trojans @ Oregon Ducks

Draper: I think this game is much bigger than the wiseguys in Vegas (which likely means I'm wrong).  I really don't get the Oregon love.  They were beat at home by a very good IU team (during the day), struggled mightily against the Hawkeyes (probably should have lost), and lest we forget, went to double OT vs a Penn State team that <checks notes> just got their first B1G win in mid November.  The problem is that USC is incredibly inconsistent and usually struggles on the road. Eugene is a tough place to play, but it's a 3:30 kickoff (and IU had no problem).  Jayden Maiava has what it takes to pull this off (his name is Makai Lemon), but the fear of another pooping the bed on the road is there.  Oregon will ground and pound against a suspect (at best) Trojan defense and do enough to get the win, but it will be a battle.  I won't be shocked if Lincoln Riley rolls a seven and the Trojans become the new playoff hopeful in the B1G, but I'll be boring and pick the Ducks.  USC: 24--Ore: 27

Hoying: Are we sure that Oregon is good? The advanced stats love them (4th in SP+, for example), but the Ducks have played in 3 big games (OK, 1 big and 2 medium) and walked away with a walk off lead-changing FG victory, a double OT victory, and a 2-score home loss. I'm not convinced that they're trustworthy, but a team I like even less is USC on the road. As good as the Trojans have been at home (except for playing Iowa, the Big Ten's ultimate monkey wrench), their defense (what little of it existed in the first place) hasn't traveled this season. Oregon QB Dante Moore isn't producing at Dillon Gabriel levels yet; of course, wide receiver injuries don't help either (*nervous laugh*). But Notre Dame provided a blueprint for crushing the Trojans even if your team is over-reliant on the ground game, and nobody runs the ball better than the Ducks. Oregon cements a return to the Playoff and leaves USC still waiting for their first appearance. USC: 23--Ore: 31

Schweinfurth: This feels like a matchup that favors the Ducks. The Trojan defense doesn't appear like it can slow this Ducks team down. If USC is going to win, they will have to turn this into a massive shootout. I just don't see it. USC: 17--Ore: 35
Seeberg: This is a big one for the B1G. A USC win gets 4 playoff teams for the conference again. Sadly for the Trojans, Reggie Bush and Co. aren't galloping in to save the day. Improved play in the trenches (see: USC's dominance of TTUN) keeps them in it, but too much Dante Moore wins out over 4 quarters. USC: 24--Ore: 34

Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: Don't. Get. Hurt.  With the trashy weather in Columbus right now, I'll be pretty surprised if we see Jeremiah or Carnell for much time unless there's residual Heisman hopes.  Sayin will play with the hope of getting that ugly second half vs. UCLA out of his mouth.  This should be a nice warm up for the Buckeye rushing attack as Buttgers run D is atrocious (little different next week).  Hopefully the Bucks can get some of the line issues tightened up <ahem....Tegra>.  The defense will have a slight test as Rutgers has the ability to move the ball through the air (also different from next week).  I'll be interested to see how the defense performs against a decent passing attack.  Rutgers trades a few blows, but the Buckeyes pull away and coast to turn the attention to the dark cloud up north.  The rain and rushing attack should keep the clock moving.  Stay healthy (PLEASE!!!!).  Rut: 13--OSU: 38

Hoying: "Gee, it sure is boring around here." "My boy, this peace is what all true warriors strive for!" "I just wonder what Michigan's up to..." The Buckeyes have been making the most of extended garbage time over the last two weeks, managing to pile points on long after the starters have been pulled. And this week, garbage time may come earlier than expected as one or both of the nation's top receivers may be on double secret injury probation once again. That means one more chance to get the running game going and nail down Sayin's timing with his backup receivers (and the squad of tight ends we've been rotating all year), just in case throwing to Smith and Tate over and over and over fails to work at some point during the Playoff. Rutgers brings a better-than-usual offense to Columbus this time but their defense is so awful that they aren't going to be able to match Ohio State score for score. With the Scarlet Knights one game away from bowl eligibility and facing a more winnable game at home against Penn State next week, both of these teams will be eager to leave this game behind as soon as possible. RSUNJ: 10--OSU: 34

Schweinfurth: The theme of this one for the Bucks is just get healthy. Ohio State can crush Rutgers without Smith and Tate, and that's okay. Keep Julian upright and out of the game as soon as possible. On both sides of the ball, identify what doesn't work and then just beat the crap of out it. This is can be a true prep game for next week. Run the ball, stay healthy and get ready for war. Rut: 7--OSU: 42
Seeberg: Ah, senior (and underclassmen we all know are leaving) day. Shame we can't recognize Downs and Reese and Tate like the seniors. In any event, this one looks to be another "boring" win like Purdue, particularly if 4 and 17 sit. Maybe a pick 6 or another return TD will spice things up? Regardless, I'll take boring wins over those inexplicable Urban losses any time. For God's sake keep everyone healthy for the 29th. Hope Schiano tries some more funny business and gets his ass reamed again. Rut: 10--OSU: 37

Upset Special

Draper: Wisconsin over Illinois
Hoying: Kentucky over Vanderbilt

Schweinfurth: Maryland over Michigan
Seeberg: Arkansas over Texas

Week 12: Bruination

Standings:

1.) Schweinfurth 37-10 (0-11 upset)
2.) Hoying 35-12 (1-10 upset)
3.) Draper 32-15 (1-10 upset)
4.) Seeberg 31-16 (3-8 upset)

For the first time since the last round of conference realignment, the Buckeyes welcome a Big Ten West (Coast) member to the Shoe. It won't be all new faces, though, as an erstwhile Tennessee Volunteer returns to Ohio Stadium under the lights once again Nico is hurt and UCLA is going to get drilled. Old meets new across the SEC as well as a few top contenders look to keep pace with Texas A&M.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Pittsburgh Panthers

Draper: Notre Dame has the charmed schedule as this is the final hurdle (of 2) for the Irish to surmount after the 0-2 start. Pitt is fighting to say they're a real competitor, but I don't buy the talent. Yeah, they'll come out blazing at home but this feels like a boring slugfest by Notre Dame which ends in the inevitable better athletes simply taking over. Love is a solid RB that should be enough to run over the Panthers, but I don't see this Irish team as particularly elite. Magic can happen for the home team, but not this time. ND: 20--Pitt: 17

Hoying: Two turnovers on downs, a missed field goal, and a fumble. That's what kept Boston College close with Notre Dame despite getting outgained 458-281 a couple of weeks ago, the only opponent that Notre Dame hasn't crushed since losing two heartbreakers to start the season. Well, them and USC, but I don't think the Irish are going to have to worry about facing players like Jayden Maiava and Makai Lemon until the Playoff (if they make it there). The Irish look very sound on both sides of the ball, pairing the lethal rushing attack of Jeremiyah Love with hot new thing CJ Carr behind center (or in the shotgun) while still leaning on a defense that's not quite as good as last year's but still quite competent. What does Pitt do? Well, they give up a lot of points; four of their six ACC opponents have cracked 20 (as compared to one of the Irish's last six foes), and the Panthers are allowing a ghastly 95.65% scoring rate to their opponents in the red zone. I don't see much of an opportunity for Pitt to snakebite Notre Dame here. The Irish know this is the only team with a pulse standing between them and a second straight Playoff appearance (and third in the last 6). Not to mention that Coach Narduzzi would really, really rather focus on the Panthers' remaining conference games later this month. Welcome back to the show, ND. ND: 34--Pitt: 20

Schweinfurth: This feels like an elimination game. Notre Dame can't afford another loss, especially without the chance to play on championship weekend. A win for the Panthers might give them an inside track to a playoff spot. Jerimiyah Love is a problem for Pitt. That dude is a beast and surely will help the Irish control the game. I've got the Irish close. ND: 24--Pitt: 21
Seeberg: Well, the pundits keep telling me Notre Dame is good. Watching them get treated like an SEC school (read: being lauded for #qualitylosses) is annoying- particularly since they haven’t won anything of consequence since their head coach was someone who Ryan Day would like to know of his whereabouts. In any event, Pitt could go on an absolute all-time heater the next 3 weeks (ND, GT, Miami) and wind up with an improbable CFP berth, and while I do think the Panthers will get one of those squads, Tony Dorsett isn’t walking through the door to go carry for carry with Jeremiyah Love. Advantage: golden domers. Back door cover city for Pitt. ND: 27—Pitt: 17

Oklahoma Sooners @ Alabama Crimson Tide

Draper: What to do here? Bama is in the standard driver's seat for Atlanta and the CFP, but they have certainly shown some chinks in the armor. Simpson has been playing pretty well, but he's made some dumb mistakes in crucial situations. The talent of the supporting cast is obviously top notch, but the Tide simply make more mistakes than we saw in the Saban era. The Sooner defense has the ability to match (or at least come close) to the Buckeye defense. It depends if they're on their game. I think Venables has the defense show up and they get to Simpson at a good clip....but then they'll be on offense. Mateer has been wildly inconsistent this year and he'll need to be at the top of his game to pull of the upset in Tuscaloosa. I don't think he can do it. The Sooner D plays well enough to win, but Bama is inevitable. OU: 17--Bama: 23

Hoying: I'm still not sure whether Oklahoma is any good, although a tough road win at Tennessee hints that the Sooners may be for real this year. And of course, we all know that Alabama is good after four straight ranked wins™ (three of which are still ranked!) followed by two tough wins against SEC teams in freefall. But much like Notre Dame above, this is Bama's last program with a pulse they'll face until (unlike Notre Dame) the conference championship game, so don't expect any letdown efforts here. Of course, at this point last season, everyone thought Bama had disembarked the struggle bus (how about that get-right game against Mercer?) before getting trampled by the Sooners in Norman. The way Alabama has been playing down to their competition lately, they could absolutely lose this game, especially with their totally moribund rushing attack. You think Ohio State's got problems; they're in Lydell Ross / Maurice Hall territory down in Tuscaloosa. If Ty Simpson does win the Heisman this year, he'll really have had to earn it, because the entire Crimson Tide offense runs through him and him alone. They'll need him against the vaunted BRENT VENABLES defense, although the Sooners may have been exposed, giving up an average of 30 points in their last two games against Ole Miss and Tennessee after surrendering just 66 points in their first 7 games. I have a feeling that all above trends will continue, with Bama playing with their food before putting up enough points to put Oklahoma away. OU: 20--Bama: 24

Schweinfurth: The Sooners were rolling until Mateer got hurt. By rushing back, he may have done more harm than good. Ty Simpson for Bama has been on a heater and even jumped up in the Heisman, because why not. While I don't think the Tide are world beaters, they have the momentum and want revenge from last year. That's all the motivation they need. OU: 34--Bama: 38
Seeberg: Well, the Sooners have certainly fit right in in their new conference, what with that dark red color and failing to live up to expectations. Bama (heavy sigh), however, looks like Bama of old but with one glaring exception: they absolutely cannot run the ball. If you think Ohio State can’t run it, watch the Tide and you’ll feel far better about the Buckeyes’ largely meh running attack. I’d like to think that the Sooners defense is good enough to capitalize on the one-dimensional nature of Ty Simpson and Co, but he’s been good enough to overcome it, and in the friendly confines of Bryant-Denny I expect him to be good enough to do so again. Tide late: OU: 17—Bama: 27

Iowa Hawkeyes @ Southern California Trojans

Draper: The defining characteristic of both these teams is "inconsistency". The Hawkeyes showed incredible defensive fortitude to nearly pull off the Duck upset as well as vs. the Hoosiers (outside of the last minute) but then the team squeaks by a Penn State. The Trojans are gangbusters vs. TTUN, but looked clueless early against the Illini. While Iowa has played pretty darn well this year, I'm not sold on their ability to play tough teams on the road. The toughest road game to date was against a horribly overrated ISU tam...that beat Iowa. SC has the pieces on offense, but seems to struggle to connect them at times. Makai Lemon is a beast and Maiava, while inconsistent, has some top end talent. I think the friendly confines of the Coliseum will be enough for a Trojan win. The Hawks have to travel and the Wave doesn't follow. Iowa: 13--USC: 27

Hoying: Hey, in a world where Tennessee can hang around the bottom of the rankings, why not Iowa as well? Each one has three quality losses against top teams (well, two top teams and Iowa State for one of them)...and no wins to speak of. The thing is, the Hawkeyes were confusticating the Hoosiers and the Ducks in the black hole of Kinnick, and now they have to make the odyssey to Troy to play a USC squad that's been a very dangerous beast at home. I am still not an Iowa believer; their quarterback makes Cade McNamara look like Brad Banks and the last Big Ten team that visited the Coliseum with a QB that couldn't throw ended up being completely stymied on the ground as well (go blue). Somehow, the Hawkeyes are bringing the same horrible Iowa downpour that dampened the Oregon offense last week, but it won't be enough to stop USC's many, many offensive weapons. Iowa: 17--USC: 27

Schweinfurth: Iowa has had a nice run to this point, and the offense looks serviceable. Here is my concern, Iowa was helped by the weather last week as it grounded Oregon. There may be a bit of this in SoCal this week, so the game is probably close. Still, I think I trust Maiava more than random dude from Iowa to make a play. Iowa: 10--USC: 17 
Seeberg: Well, we now know one of two things for certain: God is either a Hawkeye fan or he has a brutal sense of humor. Wind gusts up to 20 MPH and up to TWO INCHES OF RAIN are expected to fall in sunny LA tomorrow as the Trojans welcome Iowa- their helmets still waterlogged from last week. It’s hard to imagine Iowa scoring under any circumstance, but they mustered a good fight against Oregon in similar conditions. The B1G likely wants to see USC win out to get a 4th team in the playoffs (we are not mentioning any other scenario where that could happen). In my mind, the Trojans were strong enough up front against the Wolverines to hold up sufficiently for Maiava to make a few plays. Should be just enough. First to 20 wins! Iowa: 16—USC: 20

Texas Longhorns @ Georgia Bulldogs

Draper: This game is super difficult. Texas continues to be punched in the mouth (by bad teams) and squeak out the win. Then they play Vandy, look like the Horns we expected....and almost poop it away. UGA is another team that has played with fire all year, but keeps arriving on the smiling side. This is a slugfest between 2 heavyweight defense and 2 meh offenses. Arch has the ability to make something happen here, but I'm really nervous to pull the trigger with the inconsistent QB play. Gunner Stockton isn't anything special, but he's pretty good at managing the game. The final point for Georgia is the game being between the hedges. I REALLY want to pick Texas here because the talent is there and both teams are riding on the edge. You know what? Everyone picking the same thing is stupid. Hook them! UT: 20--UGA: 17

Hoying: This is going to be a fun one, because both of these teams have been begging to take another loss the past few weeks and one of them is finally going to catch it. OK, Vanderbilt was never really going to beat Texas after about halfway through the 4th quarter, and Georgia didn't let MSU get anywhere near replicating their near-win over the Horns. But neither of these teams is suddenly going to find a championship identity in the waning moments of the regular season, preseason top 5 rankings notwithstanding. For Texas, the problem is the same as it's been since they put up an anemic 7 points in the Shoe back in August: the passing game doesn't work and Arch isn't him. And the run game is even more moribund, continuing to take steps backwards after a passable performance in Columbus to open the season. Playing Georgia isn't what the doctor ordered to get your attack back on track, even if facing the Dawg D isn't quite like playing on Heisman mode any more. Look for Georgia to suffer a stupid loss at some point, just not this weekend. UT: 17--UGA: 24

Schweinfurth: Neither of these teams really gets me excited. Arch has been a disappointment from the hype, but the Longhorn D has been okay. Texas has to be the desperate team here. One loss and they are on the outside looking in. Georgia may be okay if it's a close loss. I don't have a good feel for this game, because we have seen Texas rise up in these games this year (see Oklahoma). Georgia wins, but Arch has a chance to win it late. UT: 24--UGA: 27

Seeberg: Uh oh, time to watch our quality win take another hit. Amusingly, if UGA wins this one, Sark will be 0-5 against OSU and the Bulldogs in just 13 months. Remarkable. Texas looked like about 25% of what we thought they were at the outset of this 2025 campaign. Now they look like Texas Lite: Good-but-not-great offense, very-good-but-not-elite defense. Have they hit their peak? They’ll need to to win between the hedges. I’m still not convinced anyone in the SEC is on the OSU/IU plane, but Kirby has Georgia closer to that precipice than the Longhorns. Arch scores in the 4th, but it’s not enough. UT: 20—UGA: 24

California Los Angeles Bruins @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: It's late, and it's tough to continue to say the same things over and over. The Bruins are not a good team. Nico is a mediocre QB that does have flashes of skill, but I don't know how he can handle his return to the Shoe and the beatdown he experienced last year. I guarantee the Bullets remember (and the fans) and he will be welcomed back in a Buckeye manner. UCLA doesn't have the horses, so the worry is "can the Buckeyes avoid the stupid game?" I think they can. It will be interesting if Day and Hartline go with the Wisconsin gameplan (or Tennessee) in which we bomb downfield all day or the more "slow approach of death" by 1,000 CJ Donaldson runs. I think they'll mix it up, get Sayin, Smith, and Tate (and Bo) some stats then coast to the finish. So long as this team remember that dumb stuff happens in CFB every year....don't let it happen here. This should be a big Arvell Reese game as he remembers literally cracking Nico's helmet last year. Bucks big, but a little let up in the second half. UCLA: 10--OSU: 41

Hoying: In 2018, Clemson went 13-0 and was awarded the #2 seed in the College Football Playoff despite not playing a team ranked in the top 15 all season. Then they proceeded to win their playoff games by an average of 27.5 points on the way to a dominant 15-0 national championship. You don't need to be constantly tested by the top competition to stay sharp and play at an elite level. Which is a good thing, because the Buckeyes are playing another feckless heap of also-rans this week under the lights in the Shoe. You've seen Nico before; he was the only part of the Tennessee offense that worked last year. But, after getting a little too big for his britches, he's chosen to come back with an even worse supporting cast, and the Buckeyes hadn't even fully deployed Arvell Reese last time Nico was running for his life. The defensive game plan is simple: keep Nico from running free and UCLA will not be able to score. Of course, they didn't score much the last time these teams met in 2001, and it didn't stop Ohio State from losing that one. The good news is that this time UCLA has one of the worst defenses in the country, so it really doesn't matter what Ohio State's game plan is: it's going to work. The last time Ohio State played under the lights, they decided to make it the Julian Sayin show, but Day has been determined to get the running game going, especially configuring what combo of big uglies up front will be able to execute for the stretch run. I expect to see a little bit of everything (except Carnell Tate, maybe, has anyone heard anything about him this week?) as, much like last week, the Buckeyes know exactly what kind of game this is, and Day's tinkering instincts will show themselves again. We'll know what the Buckeyes' real A-game plan is a couple weeks from now in Ann Arbor. UCLA: 3--OSU: 45

Schweinfurth: Welcome back to a night game at The Shoe, Nico. Surely he has some good memories of this place **checks video package, sees helmet explode** Oh. That nightmare can continue this week if Arvell Reese gets to tee off on him. I don't have any worries about the offense versus the Bruins D. Sayin and Smith should be able to march up and down the field with no problems. Nico may move the ball, but I expect this defense to stall out the Bruins O near the goal line. Another week, another win. Maybe Nico should have stayed in Knoxville...UCLA: 9--OSU: 38
Seeberg: Look, we all know what’s coming here. UPDATE: Nico is out with a concussion. Their backup hadn’t thrown a pass in his career. A shutout is definitely in play now. Honestly it’s refreshing to have a boring November instead of the scheduling gods always giving us a massive one leading up to The Game. The line is hovering around 32, seems Vegas has finally gotten wise to the Buckeyes’ dominance. The O line- and apparently Carnell- is a bit banged up and the forecast has some rain and wind. Not super ideal conditions for slinging the rock, but the Bruins are an abysmal 121st in the country in rush defense, allowing 191 ypg. If EVER there was a time to get the run game right (and maybe supplant a certain RG), it’s Saturday night. Stay clean, stay healthy, turn Bo loose, and get to 10-0. UCLA: 3—OSU: 38

Upset Special

Draper: Northwerstern over TTUN
Hoying: Navy over South Florida

Schweinfurth: Florida over Ole Miss
Seeberg: NC State over Miami 

Week 11: Boilers 'n' Toilets, Plus That One Boilin' Toilet

Standings:

1.) Schweinfurth 33-10 (0-10 upset)
2.) Hoying 31-12 (1-9 upset)
3.) Draper 28-15 (1-9 upset)
4.) Seeberg 27-16 (2-8 upset)

The nation's last four undefeated teams all hit the road this weekend, and somehow, the least consequential is at the home of the preseason #2 (yes, yes, I know, but this is Let's Go Bucks! after all). We'll soon have a better sense of who really runs the Big 12 this season (no, Cincinnati, not you), as well as whether Texas A&M can continue their hottest start since they were banned from TV back in 1994.

Brigham Young Cougars @ Texas Tech Red Raiders

Draper: This game holds a lot of intrigue and playoff implications.  A BYU win would likely cement them into the Big 12 championship game, but a loss opens the floodgates for all contenders.  Bear Bachmeier is a solid QB that has been playing well all year.  They continue to fall behind then mount comebacks week in and week out.  Tech is at a do or die moment.  Crapping the bed against ASU was their one mulligan and they can ill afford another.  The NIL money is flowing like wine, but they need to cash here.  In Lubbock, the Red Raiders are currently listed as a whopping 10.5 point favorite.  That seems a tad rich to me, but I do think they pull off the win to knock the Cougs from the ranks of the unbeaten.  BYU: 20--TT: 27
Hoying: Good for BYU. A year after a surprising 9-0 start and getting hosed out of the inaugural Playoff Dozen in favor of the SMU team they beat in Dallas, the Cougs are right back in it this season as the only remining unbeaten team outside the Power 2. That isn't enough for a top 6 ranking in the eyes of the Committee, and they're probably right about that, since BYU hasn't done a whole heck of a lot except put a resurgent Ute squad in their place a couple of weeks ago. But opportunity presents itself this week: TTech remains one of the hottest teams nationwide outside of a strange hiccup in the desert against Arizona State. That was the only game that the Red Raiders didn't hit at least 34 points, and it was the only game which their star QB Behren Morton didn't start. I don't want to sell BYU short; their own QB Bear Bachmeier has been a force for them (see, Michigan, freshman QBs don't have to be mid), but Tech is going to make him miserable with perhaps the best D-Line that money can buy. This is the biggest game in Lubbock since Michael Crabtree silenced the Horns and, while I don't think this one is going to have quite such an exciting finish, I expect another favorable result for the home crowd. TTU cruises toward their first Playoff berth in the first year they've cracked the top 25 in the Playoff rankings! BYU: 17--TTU: 34

Schweinfurth: Texas Tech has it all going for them. Good defense, high ranking, confident offense. BYU is that annoying kid that just won’t go away. The seems like a no brainer. Texas Tech is looking like the Big-12 rep right now. BYU: 14–-TTU: 38
Seeberg: BYU wanders in to Lubbock with their magic underwear and undefeated record. Gotta love 11 AM local kicks for top 10 matchups! Regardless, the Red Raiders would likely also still be blemish-free were it not for an injury to the salt man Behren Morton. Also, not only is BYU’s qb a freshman, but he wears #47? It’s like Devin Brown all over again, and we know how well that worked out for him, losing his qb battle to another true freshman. Regardless, the Raiders will re-establish themselves as the team to beat in the Big 12…whatever that’s worth. BYU: 17—TTU: 31

Texas A&M Aggies @ Missouri Tigers

Draper: Hey! It's Missouri again.  You'll never guess, but I still don't believe.  A&M is prime for a standard faceplant, and if Mizzou had their QB1, I might pull the trigger, but no Pribula spells trouble.  The Aggies have a legit claim to number 1 right now with a hot QB, a tough defense, and confidence.  Marcel Reed has another nice (not spectacular) performance and the Aggies continue unblemished.  TAMU: 24--Mizzou: 17 
Hoying: Guys, I really really wanted to pick Missouri in this one. They've been much better at home and A&M has been begging to get tagged with lackluster performances against Auburn and Arkansas. But. Penn State transfer QB Beau Pribula injured his ankle (not his fibula) in the Tigers' loss at Vanderbilt, which means now they have to rely on Screaming Yellow Zollers at QB to deliver a win against a top 3 opponent. And to add injury to injury, star Tiger TE Brett Norfleet isn't playing either. Now, Missouri has been a rush-first team this season, but Pribula was a key variable in that formula too, and A&M hasn't been too vulnerable on the ground this year. Look for the Fightin' Texas Aggies to dial up some pressure on the freshman QB and mix in a healthy dose of exotic run fits as well. The eyes of Texas are upon you, UT, to make sure A&M doesn't finish the season unblemished. TAMU: 24--Mizzou: 20

Schweinfurth: Oh man. Two SEC teams. Great. These are at least toward the top of the conference? I think? Look, I have never taken Mizzou seriously, and I’m not sure I can this year either. TAMU: 28—Mizzou: 13
Seeberg: Here we are again, Mizzou’s biggest home game in years, part 2. Part 1 ended poorly with Bama escaping town with a 3-point W. Mizzou has beaten absolutely nobody of note; they’re Tennessee with a slightly better defense. Somehow, the Aggies have also beaten nobody of note in the vaunted SEC, but their drubbing of the golden domers looks better each week. Until this iteration of the Tigers proves me wrong, I’m taking the Aggies in hopes of getting another SEC team out of the rankings. TAMU: 27—Mizzou: 17

Oregon Ducks @ Iowa Hawkeyes

Draper: Weird stuff happens in Iowa City.  Also, do we really know Oregon is any good? Their best win to date is likely...Northwestern? Yeah, Dan Lanning, blah blah, blah, but Iowa was much closer to knocking off the Hoosiers (this is still weird to type). I don't think Ferentz and company have quite enough of the magic dust left to pull this one out, but I won't be absolutely shocked in a weird 2017 Iowa voodoo happens (that game is still baffling).  Regardless, Oregon continues plowing ahead hoping for a loss of the big 2.  Ore: 31--Iowa: 17
Hoying: Bonasera...what has Oregon ever done to make you treat them so disrespectfully? I feel like the country has sort of collectively forgotten about the Ducks after the Indiana loss and the collapse of Penn State. It's not their fault the other two OSUs have been horrible this year, and the Ducks curbstomped both of them the way you'd expect an elite team to. Sure, they fell to Indiana, but so did Iowa, both teams fading down the stretch in the fourth quarter against the Hoosier juggernaut (what a time to be alive). Iowa hasn't changed a lick: sure they only have two losses so far but that's what you get when you've been blessed to play a Big Ten West level schedule so far. Too bad they're facing the Big Ten Way Out West one-two combo this week and next. Teams that don't throw the ball don't beat Oregon, and lo and behold, the Hawks have quite possibly the worst passing game in the nation, led by a quarterback who makes Bryce Underwood on his worst days look like Julian Sayin. Yeah, nobody wants to go play at Kinnick, but there are only so many recipes for beating Oregon under Dan Lanning and Iowa is still serving up 12 helpings of pork tenderloin sandwich every season. Ducks take down Hawks (next up, Team Iceland). Ore: 27--Iowa: 17

Schweinfurth: Not sure I can really give this much thought. Iowa is still Iowa. Okay to good defense, not much offense. Sorry, but you have to score to beat the Ducks. Ore: 35—Iowa: 13
Seeberg: I am, quite frankly, astounded at the amount of attention this game is getting as a potential upset. Barring D/ST scores or multiple short fields I just can’t envision the Hawkeyes scoring enough points to win this one, though they did largely throttle the Hoosiers when they came to Iowa City. I would expect the Ducks to create a turnover or two of their own, however, and Iowa can’t afford mistakes with their razor thin margins. Ducks late. Ore: 23—Iowa: 13

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Purdue Boilermakers

Draper: Someone said that it must be terrible being an OSU fan right now because you simply crush everyone in your path.  Honestly, I'm loving it! However, each game always starts with the pit in your stomach of 'is today the day?'  The nice thing about the 2025 edition of the Buckeyes is that those weird worries are usually quashed very quickly.  I expect the same here.  Yeah, the Boilers played TTUN reasonably close last week, but I think that speaks more to the maize and blue than it does to the old gold.  Ryan Day and Co. always come out of the gate slow on the road (except in Madison?) so I don't know if we'll get fireworks, but it's going to be hard to prevent them with Tate and Smith terrorizing the secondary.  I was wrong in Madison, but this seems like an opportunity to work on the running game and try to get something going up front.  Stop the rotation and cement Bo as the starter.  Once again, get in, get the dub, stay healthy, Go Bucks! OSU: 45--Pur: 13
Hoying: If you're a fan of Parker Fleming (no, not THAT Parker Fleming, wait, why is he still listed as Ohio State's current special teams coordinator?) and his statistical modeling at CFB Graphs, you won't be surprised to know that this is one of those "lots of blue numbers against lots of red numbers" games. Apparently, the only things that Purdue isn't horrible at is success rate on passing plays, offensive success on late downs, and minimizing points given up on opponents' potential scoring drives. That's...not a lot to go on, especially since Ohio State leads the nation in getting teams off the field on 3rd down and stuffing them on 4th. You could be forgiven for thinking that Ohio State might not be putting in quite the effort or energy for this game as they did for Jim Knowles's unhappy homecoming last week. But if you've watched Ryan Day closely this season, you'll see that he's taken his usual positivity coach speak demeanor and laced it with a healthy(?) dose of elite coach psychopath. It's like the Buckeyes are in permanent cruise control this season, but set at 75 MPH on the open road while everyone else is in a go-kart. Anyone pulls up close, and the Bucks hit the nitro. Not this week though. OSU: 38--Pur: 6

Schweinfurth: Number 1 Ohio State comes rumbling into Purdue. I’ve heard this before. It ended…not good. Good news, this Purdue team is not great. Ryan Day has shown that this team will turn up the pressure and tempo if he has to. It wont be needed here. Bucks should win pretty handily. OSU: 42—Pur: 6

Seeberg: *The 2018 Boilermakers can’t hurt you* I say to myself while slowly rocking back and forth in a dark corner somewhere. Thankfully, this statement is accurate as we actually have their best offensive weapon from last season, and their best weapon this season is on the shelf in starting RB in Devin Mockobee. Lots of short possessions for their offense should provide lots of opportunities for ours. The weather looks mediocre so deep shots may be impacted, but I expect Sayin to remain precise on short and intermediate throws. Perhaps the run game can get right too? Maybe a pick 6 or punt return TD? It all feels in play. Boring wins are good wins, and if this one is in doubt in the second half, something has gone apocalyptically wrong. HAMMER that Max Klare anytime TD prop if you can get it people! OSU: 38—Pur: 3

Upset Special

Draper: Penn State over Indiana
Hoying: Mississippi State over Georgia

Schweinfurth: Auburn over Vandy
Seeberg: Cal over Louisville 

Week 10: Black Noon Saturday

Standings:

1.) Hoying 28-10 (1-8 upset)
1.) Schweinfurth 28-10 (0-9 upset)
3.) Draper 24-14 (1-8 upset)
4.) Seeberg 23-15 (2-7 upset)

Before this season started, everybody marked down November 1st as the must-see college football date of the year. Penn State / Ohio State, Georgia / Florida, Miami / SMU, Oklahoma / Tennessee, Texas Tech / Kansas State, heck even Arizona State and Iowa State were both ranked preseason. As it stands, we're a Texas overtime win against Mississippi State away from this weekend turning out to be a total dud. There should be some competitive matches (hopefully far from home), but you'll have to seek your titanic clashes elsewhere.

Vanderbilt Commodores @ Texas Longhorns

Draper: Do I keep picking against the Dores to my peril? Pimp Vandy is still rockin' after a big home win over the Tigers, but we all just stare thinking...'Can they really keep getting away with it?'.  Honestly, they're sound on both sides of the ball and have solid QB play. Pavia is the wildcard in the Heisman race, but having to face this Longhorn defense in Austin could be a tall task. Yeah, the defense wasn't spectacular against CLANGA, but this squad is still very solid.  With a possible new signal caller, how can we call for the rankings dog to win? Well, fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice.....sigh...Hook them.  Vandy: 13--UT: 17
Hoying: OK, Texas, you've had your two months to screw around after squandering your preseason #1 ranking. Are you going to do anything this year or not? And no, kicking off Oklahoma's free fall doesn't count. The Horns' defense has been about as good as advertised, as long as you're not playing DJ Lagway or...Mississippi State apparently, but Arch continues to refuse to get out of second gear. Sure, UT put up 31 in the 4th quarter and overtime last week but that doesn't become necessary unless your offense putters around for the previous three quarters. At least Arch cleared concussion protocol, sparing Texas's fortunes from resting with former Trojan QB Matthew Caldwell. Not USC Trojan, Troy Trojan (also Gardner-Webb) (also Jacksonville State). Meanwhile, Vanderbilt showed last week against Missouri that it can win with defense, a week after providing a proof of concept for moving the ball against LSU (A&M thanks you for your service). Texas may be desperate and dangerous as their national title hopes hang by a thread, but somehow Vandy comes into this one with the better team. At this rate, the Buckeyes are going to have to wait until Thanksgiving for the opportunity to put a quality win on their schedule, but the Dore slams on what seemed like a promising season for UT. Vandy: 23--UT: 20

Schweinfurth: I'm still not sure how good either of these teams are. I do think Texas has a better defense. Arch needs to do just enough to keep Texas in it. Vandy: 21: UT: 24
Seeberg: Well, Vandy has proven they can beat a decent team at home…but how about on the road? Texas is no Bama (post-week-1 at least), but they still boast an excellent defense. Another low-scoring slog like the Commodes Commodores managed to win against Mizzou is likely in order. Anyone have Pavia as having the better odds for a Heisman of these two QBs?? No, no you didn’t. Regardless, both QBs will have no shot after this week. Longhorns try to salvage the best win for our Buckeyes for another week. Vandy: 13—UT: 20

Southern California Trojans @ Nebraska Cornhuskers

Draper: Hard to care about this game.  USC has some juice then poops it away every time.  And Nebraska is...Nebraska.  The offensive talent from LA is superior.  If they can handle the travel, I think they'll pull it out.  I'm done thinking Nebraska/Raiola is going to ever amount to anything.  USC: 31--Neb: 20
Hoying: After Penn State went into a tailspin (oh-ee-yeah), there was a slim chance that Big Noon Saturday might move out to Lincoln this week for a Big Ten game with actual Playoff implications. Then the Huskers got blasted by Minnesota on Friday night and FOX decided to stick with the big names for Big Noon. This game still matters, as the Trojans are good enough to potentially make some noise in the Playoff (and are still technically in the Big Ten title hunt), and Nebraska has a shockingly easy Big Ten schedule that manages to avoid Indiana, Ohio State, and Oregon. The thing is, the Huskers just aren't that impressive. After a gutwrenching home loss against Michigan, the Huskers have spent the last month struggling to put away Michigan State, Maryland, and Northwestern, as well as the aforementioned Gopher debacle. USC is up and down but their blemishes have been getting stacked by a very good Notre Dame team in South Bend and coming up just short against a very good Illinois team. The Trojans are on the road again here but nothing Nebraska is doing inspires any confidence. Keep riding that Cincinnati win (while it still matters, see below). USC: 38--Neb: 24

Schweinfurth: Nebraska is up and down more than a toilet seat. I don't trust either defense, but I know I really don't trust Wannabe Mahomes. USC: 35--Neb: 17
Seeberg: Nebraska has 6 wins and is playing a ranked team. Their only shot was playing this at 9 AM Pacific time to mess with the Trojans’ body clocks. No such luck. Don’t overthink this one. USC: 27—Neb: 17

Oklahoma Sooners @ Tennessee Volunteers

Draper: What do we do with the Sooners? I really did (still do?) believe in Venables' defense which is nasty (yet undisciplined), but Mateer doesn't seem to have 'it'.  This stretch run by the Sooners is brutal on paper and could be the same in reality.  Tennessee looked like a cool fun story maintaining success until...they crashed like always.  They're still very talented and could sneak into the playoffs, but not even the talking heads at ESPN would have these teams advancing far (I kid, I kid.....the talking heads would DEFINITELY pick these SEC teams to lap the field).  Defense tells me take the Sooners, but home field and quarterback play favor the Vols.  Smokey it is.  OU: 17--UT: 27
Hoying: So I think I have Tennessee pegged. They beat their bad opponents and lose to the good ones (time to kick the Heupel tires, Penn State). But I'm not sure which category Oklahoma falls into. The myth of the Brent Venables defense was badly exposed by Ole Miss last week while the Vols were cruising past SEC-basement Kentucky. September Heisman nominee John Mateer has steered the Sooners to two losses in their last three games, and I'm tired of picking them and coming up empty (except against Michigan, whoops). True, Tennessee hasn't been stopping anybody this year, but the way the offense has been cooking both through the air and on the ground, it hasn't mattered. Just stay away from overtime and half-closing pick sixes. It's beginning to look a lot like last year... OU: 24--UT: 27

Schweinfurth: I haven't watched either team all year. Going with my gut though. OU: 17--UT: 14
Seeberg: Yet another installment of “are either of these SEC teams actually good?” OU has a really good defense, but they were exposed somewhat last week by the Rebels, and Aguilar is a more accurate passer than Chambliss. On the flip side, the Vols’ best win is…an OT loss- at home- to Georgia? #qualityloss strikes again. I still think OU is the better team here, but I’m still not convinced Mateer is back to his pre-injury form. When in doubt, go with the home team. OU: 24—UT: 31

Cincinnati Bearcats @ Utah Utes

Draper: The Big 12 is about to get really spicy.  UC and BYU are undefeated in conference with TT and Houston sneaking around with 1 loss....and Utah is poised just behind them.  Utah has too steep of a hill to climb after losses to both BYU and Texas Tech, but they will definitely make a difference in the stretch run.  Rice Eccles is a tough place to play and we continue to talk about the travel woes of these super conferences.  Oh yeah, UC's schedule has been hot garbage outside of the moderately nice win over Iowa State.  Gameday will be there for some reason (thanks, Penn State), and the Utes will make it tough for the Bearcats.  UC: 17--Utah: 34

Hoying: Get your afternoon nap in, Bearcat fans, because you'll be up late watching this one. You might even get to experience the Daylight Saving Time fall back in real time before the clock hits zero. Welcome to life in the new look Big 12. Unfortunately, you'll be without the services of your top offensive weapon, the Buckeyes' erstwhile perennial deep in the depth chart mainstay Evan Pryor. Still a shame that he (and the rest of our running back room other than Tre) transferred, I would have loved to see him really get a chance to produce in the scarlet and gray. Now we won't even get a chance to see him produce in Cinci's biggest road game of the year. Utah QB Devon Dampier is banged up as well, but that's practically a prerequisite to start for the Utes these past few years. The 'Cats won't be as easy to crush as Deion's dopes were last week, but they'll be too far out of their element to hold serve in the Big 12 race for another week. UC: 20--Utah: 27

Schweinfurth: Cincy isn't what it was under Fickell. Utah is that team that just hangs around the top 25 every year. I have more faith in the Utes. Cin: 10--Utah: 21
Seeberg: Ah yes, the other ranked Ohio team. I guess the Bearcats are hanging their claws on that win against then-ranked Iowa State, but this team lost to Nebraska at home. Hard to fathom that team winning a midnight ET game at Utah. Cin: 17–Utah: 30

Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: I have a weird feeling in my gut about this game that we'd better not eff around.  Penn State is a shell of their former selves, but sometimes a cornered animal only has one thing left to keep them going.  Back up QB's are always a wild card, but I do take solace in their lack of WR talent....again.  The running backs for the Lions are quality seniors, but I have a hard time seeing them destroy the Bullets.  On the defensive side of the ball, they still have some dudes, but no DUDES.  Knowles' scheme takes time (and talented players) to hit and PSU doesn't have it down yet....but....the well oiled machine in Columbus is slightly due for a little hiccup.  I have full faith that the coaches will be locked in and have the team prepared, but if there is a little adversity, we need to close ranks and fight.  Knowles will have some wrinkles planned and will want this more than anything else.  I think the OSU coaches are approaching this correctly and will be business as usual.  If (when?) adversity strikes, if the Buckeyes stay locked in to their gameplan, no worries.  An early turnover by Sayin and a surprising deficit scare the folks in black....at a black out...at a school whose colors DON'T include black...at noon (I hate this crap so much), but the brotherhood takes hold and the forces of good triumph.  PSU: 10--OSU: 31
Hoying: Backup QBs and backup coaches create unpredictability, which is not ideal when you're the team with the decided advantage on a normal day. That being said, we did get a chance to see backup Penn State QB Ethan Grunkemeyer a couple of weeks ago and the results weren't great. 15 of 28 for 93 yards to be exact, and now he gets to face the nation's top pass defense in a blackout at...noon? Look, I get that we're getting into ridiculously early sunset season, but this game is on the last day of DST and it's kicking off when the sun is still at its 30 degrees above the horizon Ohio fall zenith. Thankfully, the team isn't wearing those awful black unis, but that makes the blackout make even less sense, as the Buckeye faithful cannot be bothered to adjust their clothing to fit whatever bright idea the athletics marketing team has rolled out. Remember the helmet stripe game against Ohio? As for the game, the defensive game plan for Ohio State should be business as usual, only with the added bonus of facing Grunkadelic instead of Checkdown Charlie supreme Drew Allar. The more interesting matchup will be on the other side of the ball, where we can find out just how far the Lions have advanced into the Knowles defense installation process. Interestingly, PSU has much better success defending the pass than the run this season, which creates interesting incentives for a Buckeye offense coming off of its best day throwing the ball so far this year. I expect the restraining bolts freshly removed from the RPO game to remain safely in the trash as Sayin is once again given the keys to the Cadillac to take whatever the defense gives him on land or in the sky. Maybe he can have a Heisman moment or two to go along with his gaudy yet somehow also boring stats. The game everyone circled during the preseason passes without much consternation, and Buckeye Nation refocuses its attention on THEM once again. PSU: 3--OSU: 27

Schweinfurth: Penn State doesn't have a QB. This dude is making his second start. It's also in The Shoe. I like the Bucks' chances here. Yes, the kitties have pride to play for, but this Buckeye team just seems to be different. Time for Arvell Reese to eat. We all know evil Ryan Day will show up at some point. Why not now? PSU: 7--OSU: 42
Seeberg: Okay folks I’ll be honest. This one scares me. The Lions are in free fall mode but it’s not like their talent vanished overnight. This game could be characterized into their season. If Allar were healthy I’d be downright terrified. With Franklin gone, they have a markedly better chance to win an actual game of consequence. Kaytron Allen was properly utilized against Iowa, getting a career high in carries to the tune of nearly 150 yards against an excellent defense. If they can run it and stay on schedule, things could get dicey. I’m banking on Patricia to dial up enough good stuff to get them into obvious passing situations. Don’t be surprised if it’s competitive for a half. Of course Day will want to obliterate Jim Knowles who stubbornly won’t simplify his defense and it has clearly hamstrung a very talented unit (albeit missing their best LB). Execute in the red zone, keep Sayin clean, and just get out of the ‘Shoe with the W. PSU: 13—OSU: 27

Upset Special

Draper: Florida over Georgia
Hoying: Virginia Tech over Louisville
Schweinfurth: Cal over Virginia 
Seeberg: Kansas State over Texas Tech

Week 9: The Best Thing About Being 7-0 Is...Staying 7-0

Standings:

1.) Schweinfurth 26-8 (0-8 upset)
2.) Hoying 25-9 (1-7 upset)
3.) Seeberg 22-12 (2-6 upset)
3.) Draper 22-12 (1-7 upset)

Bye weeks come but twice a year, so savor this opportunity to visit your local pumpkin patch or corn maze, catch up on your outstanding yard work...or lock in for another banger slate with intriguing matchups from coast to coast.

Mississippi Rebels @ Oklahoma Sooners

Draper: This is a sneakily tricky matchup.  Ole Kiffikins has Trinidad Chambliss and Co. rocking on the offensive end and looked like they were going to steal one at UGA...until it all fell apart.  Brent Venables has most teams residing in Bo-Pelini-land with a smashmouth defense that is playing up to the hype.  A classic offense vs. defense matchup.  Normally, the edge goes to the defense. Getting John Mateer back and fully healthy (I think) will be crucial to the somewhat pedestrian Sooner offense. I wouldn't be shocked with any outcome, but the a Rebels win would position them nicely for a playoff run as their remaining schedule is just crap.  OU on the other hand has a murderer's row. With that being said, I think the Sooner Schooner continues rumbling in Norman and Kiffin contemplates real estate in Gainsville.  Miss: 17--OU: 23 
Hoying: Welp, serves me right for believing in each of these teams over the last two weeks. You could say that Oklahoma paid the price for rushing John Mateer back onto the field, but Ole Miss has been working all year with a backup QB, and their offense wasn't the (main) reason they lost to Georgia. And Mateer isn't going to be playing any great defense this week; the Rebs haven't held an SEC opponent, or Washington State, under 20 points all season (we are spoiled, Buckeye Nation). True, Ole Miss's weakness is on the ground, and the Sooners haven't really made their hay running the ball this season, but they were able to find some running room last week at South Carolina. The real question in this one is whether the Rebels will be able to move the ball against a stiff Brent Venables defense. The only team to crack 20 against OU was Texas, who needed help from three Mateer INTs. I don't think Oklahoma has a huge advantage here, but being at home should make the difference. Miss: 20--OU: 24

Schweinfurth: Outside of the Texas game, Oklahoma has looked really good. Mateer was clearly rushed back for that one. Ole Miss feels like that middling team that just hangs around but won't do much. Clearly, the Sooners are the better team. Kiffin gets mad because his team doesn't score how he wants. Miss: 14--OU: 27
Seeberg: Intriguing matchup here of two actually decent SEC teams (LSU=not decent). The Sooners obviously pushed Mateer back into service a week early but seem to have righted the ship. Ole Miss, meanwhile, looked like a juggernaut offensively against Georgia, until it mattered and Kirby and Co figured some things out. The last quarter and a half may provide a blueprint for Oklahoma’s superior defense to stymie the Rebels. Sooners and Rebels swap places in the SEC-laden top 25. Bleh. Miss: 19—OU: 24 

South Florida Bulls @ Memphis Tigers

Draper: So....USF was the early season G5 darling, then it transferred to Memphis.  After a stinker vs. a random guy who replaced Trent Dilfer (Elvis Grbac?), this game has all the playoff implications one could ask for.  There's a decent chance the winner has the inside track to the G5 representation in the playoff and the loser is just plain out.  A virtual elimination game in October, and we're in Memphis.  However, Memphis has one decent win (over Arkansas--who isn't very good) while USF has 1.5 decent wins (Boise and @Florida--which is always tough).  ESPN has this as a pure coin flip and it really does seem that way, but I'll give the edge to the team who has won on the road before.  Go Bulls.  USF: 20--Mem: 17
Hoying: Woof, Tigers. 6-0 with a win over Arkansas and you lose to UAB? The team that was so bad they got Trent Dilfer fired midseason? I guess the lesson here is to watch out for teams with fired coaches and nothing to lose (uh-oh) (x2). South Florida were the darlings of September before Miami snapped them back to reality, but they've been on a tear through the AC since, including handing North Texas their only loss (and by 27 no less). This one will likely come down to the quality of the offense. The Bulls are averaging less than 3 points per quality drive (a drive penetrating the opponent's 40 or scoring a TD, RIP Eckel Rate) and only putting quality drives together 36.5% of the time, while Memphis gets 4.4 points out of their quality drives and gets going at a much healthier 45.2% rate. Add in a punishing Memphis ground game with RBs Sutton Smith and Greg Desrosiers, along with QB Brendon Lewis, and I think the honeymoon is over for USF. USF: 17--Mem: 24

Schweinfurth: I'm flipping a coin here. Sorry, this one falls in the category of not enough time to pay attention to non-P5 teams. Yea, I'm that guy this year. Coin says: USF: 31--Mem: 20
Seeberg: Fun matchup here that I hope gets the attention it deserves. Both teams are eyeing a playoff bid now that Ashton Jeanty is a pro. I expect Memphis to move the ball pretty well, but USF can sling it and run it with dual threat QB Byron Brown at the helm. I don’t think the Bulls are good enough to run away and hide in the road environment a la OSU at Illinois, but I do think they have the horses to pull away late. USF: 35—Mem: 24

Missouri Tigers @ Vanderbilt Commodores

Draper: And we meet again Mr. Vanderbilt.  Diego Pavia and Clark Lea (he's so gone) have Vanderbilt...yes, Vanderbilt knocking on the doors of the playoffs, not because of a nice conference draw or lucky bounces, but because they're actually very talented.  I thought we'd see the shine come off last week, but they went right at LSU and took it to 'em.  Missouri is a team I just can't figure out.  They seem to flirt with 9-3, 10-2 every year, and I just don't care.  We keep expecting the Dores to stop this madness, but, like Indiana, they have some dogs and keep coming.  Pavia continues to force his way into the Heisman conversation and Vandy keeps it rolling.  Mizz: 20--Vandy: 30
Hoying: Here they are: the teams that won't die. Both of them keep hanging around with much better rankings than they deserve. Seriously, what is Missouri's best win? A quality loss to Alabama? And does anyone expect either of these teams to compete for the SEC championship? We've seen Vanderbilt's ceiling; they left it on the field in Tuscaloosa in the second quarter. The offense is good enough to break through the LSU brick wall but will Mizzou be able to hold serve? QB Beau Pribula is serviceable, certainly good enough to be a backup on a national title contender (and maybe even a starter if the first-stringer would, say, suffer a season ending injury) but he's no Go Diego Go. The swagmaster continues to take the SEC by storm, and he's not stopping for the likes of Missouri. Going to Austin next week may be a bit of a rude awakening, but the dream continues for now. Mizz: 24--Vandy: 30

Schweinfurth: Two teams that I'm not quite sure of. I will stay with the chaos QB though. Mizz: 35--Vandy: 38
Seeberg: Quite frankly it’s sad that we’re in late October and I have NO idea if either of these teams is any good. The super conferences have watered down everyone’s schedules. These two have a combined 1 ranked win- and LSU has no business being ranked. Diego is building a Heisman campaign…who would’ve thought Heisman front runners would be housed in Nashville and Bloomington?? However, defense travels, as does the run game, and the Tigers have both. Pavia is hitting some real defenses the next couple weeks, and those Heisman hopes will be dashed as Sayin climbs up the rankings by literally putting up EA CFB completion numbers. Tigers late. Mizz: 27—Vandy: 20

Illinois Fighting Illini @ Washington Huskies

Draper: Are either of these teams good? Are they bad? I have no freaking clue.  I tend to think that they're neither, but the winner of this game may vault to top 5 status in the Big 10 (by top 5, I mean....5th).Luke Altmeyer has been wonderful all year except when playing a top 2 team, but Washington's defense isn't special.  This comes down to the play of Demond Williams.  If he's cooking, the Huskies should take control, but if he's off, old Bert will reign supreme.  In Seattle, I think Williams and the Husky offense can get it done (unless they play OSU).  The west coast takes a small step forward to relevance.  Ill: 24--UW: 31
Hoying: In lieu of watching the Buckeyes this week, enjoy this showcase of the pretty good teams the Buckeyes beat by double digits on the road. Each has taken an additional hit, though only one of them lost by 50+. Washington, somewhat worryingly, has had a complete failure to launch against both of the recent national champions they've played this year, although a soft and exploitable Illini secondary may be just what the doctor ordered to get the Huskies back on track. Defense travels, but Illinois doesn't have a great defense and they're traveling very, very far, something teams don't seem to be able to get away this season unless you're in the Tom Raper RV advertising area. Don't expect Demond Williams to toss another 3 INTs this week, particularly since I don't expect UW to be doing a lot of throwing playing from behind. It's a shame, really, since the Illini's remaining schedule sets up rather nicely for them to reach double digits and a likely Playoff berth if they can just survive this week, but I think Washington is just a little bit better and have the roar of the Seattle crowd behind them. Ill: 24--UW: 33

Schweinfurth: Washington moved the ball against TTUN, they just had a lot of errors in the red zone. Illinois doesn't seem to have the defense or offensive weaponry to keep up with UW. The Huskies should put up some numbers here. Ill: 28--UW: 42 
Seeberg: So let’s track this. Ohio State is this year’s Ohio State, Indiana is this year’s Oregon, Oregon is this year’s Penn State, and who is this year’s Indiana? A lot of money was on it being Illinois, but this is a tricky road contest. Win this one and the schedule softens to a nice 10-2 landing spot somewhere likely on the inside edge of the playoffs. Washington is another of the boatload of 5-2 B1G squads (seriously, NW is 5-2 as is every single one of their remaining  opponents), and they can score it. A lousy showing against UM should have them motivated. The Illini got an extra week to prep for this one, but umbrella coverage won’t work against a mobile QB, and any team that gives up 27 to Purdue is in trouble. Ill: 20—UW: 30

Upset Special

Draper: CLANGA over Texas
Hoying: South Carolina over Alabama
Schweinfurth: Stanford over Miami
Seeberg: Syracuse over Georgia Tech