Week 11: Clear the Path to a Buckeye Title

The Buckeyes, sadly, are not in action this Saturday.  However, 3 undefeated teams face huge tests against highly ranked opponents.  A day of inaction might be able to do what 2 blowout wins couldn't for OSU.

Standings
1) Schweinfurth    29-13      (3-7 upset)
2) Draper               28-14      (2-8 upset)
3) Hoying              27-15      (1-9 upset)

Oregon Ducks @ Stanford Cardinal
Draper: Is Stanford really as good as people think?  Can Oregon smash a team with a pulse? This game will answer a lot of questions (or will it?) and for some unknown reason, it's hidden on a Thurs. night.  Mariota has been fantastic against subpar...ok, bad...defenses.  Stanford is overrated in my opinion, but still the best team the Ducks have faced by far.  Kevin Hogan has quietly had a nice 'game-manager' type season and keeps the Cardinal in the discussion.  Stanford ruined the dream for the Ducks last year and I see the Ducks returning the favor in Palo Alto.  Stanford's offense will score...but so will Oregon.  UO: 41--Stan:31
Hoying: Forget Florida State - Clemson and Florida State - Miami; this might be the premier non-bowl matchup of the year. The Cardinal offense hasn't been wowing anybody (where oh where have you gone, Toby Gerhart and Andrew Luck), and they suffered a puzzling loss in Rice-Eccles Stadium, but their defense is probably tops in the conference. That's good news, because it'll take a stellar defense and a good deal of luck to slow down Super Mariota and the mighty Duck juggernaut.  Oregon hasn't forgotten about Stanford wrecking their dream season last year in Eugene, and they'll be itching to prove to the nation that they belong in the BCS's coveted #2 slot. One potential X-factor: Stanford's battle toughness. The Cardinal have been tested again and again this season and have 4 pretty good wins to show for it. Are the Ducks tough enough to come out of Palo Alto victorious? I hope not, but I think so. UO: 31--Stan: 24
Schweinfurth:  Everyone keeps saying that Stanford is the team that will knock Oregon off their perch (out of their pond?).  Look, Stanford plays a really tough style that has been Oregon’s kryptonite.  The difference is, this Cardinal team isn’t that good.  Stanford still doesn’t have legitimate weapons on the outside on offense and Kevin Hogan is doing a lot with very little.  You have to score points and get turnovers to beat Oregon and I don’t think this Cardinal team has it in them.  Sad day for the Buckeyes ORE: 38--Stan: 20

Oklahoma Sooners @ Baylor Bears
Draper: This is essentially a do or die game for Big Game Bob and Sooners.  Win and you're right in the mix...lose and good night.  Baylor has been scoring at will with Seastrunk and Petty, but my high school plays better defense than their opponents. Can Baylor survive the spotlight without RGIII? I'm going to say no.  They will score, but the big game experience of the Sooners (I can't believe I'm saying that), will carry them to a very close win.  Waco will be in a frenzy, but the big boy coming to town signals the clock striking midnight.  OU: 35--Baylor: 31
Hoying: Two weeks ago I made a bold prediction that undefeated Texas Tech was about to take a nosedive after finally facing the meat of the Big 12 schedule. This weekend the Bears find themselves in their own put-up-or-shut-up moment in front of a national Thursday night audience. The Sooners are no stranger to big games this season (that win over Notre Dame looks better every week) but they haven't seen anyone as sharp or as hungry as Baylor. QB Bryce Petty has been shredding terrible terrible defenses for 18 TDs and only 1 INT, and the ground game headed by Lache Seastrunk (might as well be Bismo Funyuns) is no slouch either. Oklahoma might still be the better squad, but I don't trust Big Game Bob outside of Norman.  Baylor announces their official BCS candidacy with a win over Boomer Sooner. OU: 34--Baylor: 35
Schweinfurth:  Have you figured out who I think is the best team in the Big XII yet?  Hint: It’s one of these two teams.  Baylor has been just flat rolling teams the past two years and has done so quietly.  Bear QB Bryce Petty stepped into RGIII’s shoes and then broke the scoreboard.  This offense is operating with more explosiveness than Ohio State and Oregon.  The Sooners will have their hands full in this one.  Baylor won’t jump Ohio State when they win, but that gap will sure close.  OU: 35--Bay: 63

BYU Cougars @ Wisconsin Badgers
Draper:  All I really remember of the Cougars are them blowing Texas out of the water.  The Badgers are just sneaking around with their '2' losses (stupid Pac12 refs).  I don't see Camp Randall being particularly kind to the visiting Cougs. Melvin Gordon and James White will run all over them.  The Badger D is also pretty darn good.  Wisky rolls and keeps the dream of the BCS alive.  BYU: 20--Wisc: 34
Hoying: What an oddity the Cougars are. One week they're losing to awful Virginia, the next they're crushing Texas. BYU has been cruising under the radar for some time now, quietly stringing together a nice chain of wins over Utah State, Georgia Tech, Houston, and Boise State.  Now they've had two weeks to prepare for a Wisconsin squad that seems to be consistently improving as the season goes on. All you old-timers should enjoy this game: a couple of brand-name programs battling while probably combining to throw for 150 yards. Don't forget, this is the same BYU team that ran for 550 yards against Texas, and Wisconsin didn't get any last-minute recruits from NC State to shore up their passing game this year. Poor Abbie Doobie.  Bucky won't need you to dispatch the Cougs. BYU: 17--Wisc: 24
Schweinfurth: Look, BYU has been playing well, but Wisconsin is (debatably) the second best team in the B1G right now.  The Badgers are just going to give the Cougars a steady dose of Melvin Gordon and James White.  And true to Bucky fashion, will be overly successful with it.  Remember that Bert doesn’t coach this team any longer and Gary Anderson will actually stick with a game plan that works.  BYU: 10--Wisc: 35

Virginia Tech Hokies @ Miami Hurricanes
Draper: I suppose this argument comes down to 'Which loss of/to Duke is worse?' The Hokies are faceplanting every week it seems after a promising start that made Bama look good.  Losing to Duke....in football...what? Then there's the Hurricanes who kept squeaking by until they were annihilated by the Noles.  Oh yeah, they lost their best player in Duke Johnson for the year.  Stephen Morris and logan Thomas are very similar QBs in their complete lack of consistency.  Normally, I'd go with the home team....but Miami's home field advantage is like a dentist's office in West Virginia--nonexistent.  Miami's loss of Duke is more painful.  Hokies win to stay alive in the Coastal race.  VT: 24--UM: 17
Hoying: Oh-ee-ay!  Tail Spin!  Oh-ee-oh!  Tail Spin!  After very promising starts, these two teams are in danger of falling to the middle of the ACC Coastal pack (leaving the door open for the Dukies baby!). One ship will be righted this weekend, while the other will, I suppose, count themselves lucky that they don't have to play Florida State at season's end. So who has the edge? Virginia Tech's defense looked special before being exposed at the hands of Boston College RB Andre Williams. Unfortunately, Miami's super RB Duke Johnson is out indefinitely, and the Hurricanes' suddenly one-dimensional offense won't be able to move the ball this weekend. Always a shame to see the 'Canes lose. VT: 20--UM: 13
Schweinfurth: Miami is a decent (not great) ACC team who got their tails whipped by an elite team.  We can all proclaim that the “U” is not back.  To me, however, Virginia Tech has turned into an also ran in the ACC.  Gone are the days of a manageable offense with stout D and Beamerball.  These days Virginia Tech seems to slog their way on offense.  Miama has a formula to win games like this and it’s called “give Duke Johnson the ball.” They will and they will win because of it.  Poster note: Tyler clearly didn't see that Duke Johnson has a broken ankle.  Giving him the ball is not recommended   VT: 13--UM: 20

Louisiana State Tigers @ Alabama Crimson Tide
Draper: LSU's best game this year....a loss to UGA.  As the Oracle would say: That's a great game...in 2011.  The Tigeauxrs have done nothing this year of note.  Their living on name alone.  Mettenberger has looked strong, but against Bama...I'll stick with Saban.  The Tide have 1 big win, but have smothered everyone else.  Roll Tide at home, y'all.  This is payback for 2011 (even though they go revenge when it counted).  McCarron for Heisman? He's number 4 for me.  LSU: 16--Bama: 34
Hoying: Every time I see this game on the schedule, I'm reminded of the abomination that was the 2011 season (never forget). There's a bit more separation between these two teams than we've seen in previous years. In particular, LSU's defense has taken a significant step backwards. Don't look for a 9-6 overtime thriller this year. LSU under Les Miles is capable of snakebiting any opponent, but Saban has had 4 weeks to get ready for this one. Y'all are Tide bait. LSU: 13--Ala: 27
Schweinfurth: This isn’t your LSU teams of the past.  They can actually move the ball but that defense is meh (and don’t give me this “it’s the SEC” BS).  Alabama has been quietly efficient and that defense has been outstanding outside of letting Johnny sign my Football run wild.  Alabama is still coached by Saban and LSU by a moron.  LSU does enough to stay close but Bama pulls away late. LSU: 17--Bama: 27

Upset Special
Draper: Arizona over UCLA
Hoying: Houston over UCF
Schweinfurth: Pitt over Notre Dame

Top 25 and Heisman Ballots - After Week 10

Rankings, as always, are based on what teams have done so far, not how we believe they'll finish.

Draper Top 25
1. Florida State
2. Alabama
3. Oregon
4. Ohio State
5. Baylor
6. Clemson
7. Stanford
8. Auburn
9. Oklahoma
10. UCF
11. Michigan State
12. South Carolina
13. Notre Dame
14. Wisconsin
15. Arizona State
16. LSU
17. Northern Illinois
18. Fresno State
19. Miami (FL)
20. Oklahoma State
21. BYU
22. Texas A&M
23. Michigan
24. Louisville
25. Texas

Draper Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)--His leadership on the field after the 'eye-gouge' solidified the top spot
2. Marcus Mariota (QB--Ore)
3. Johnny Manziel (QB--TAMU)

Hoying Top 25
1. Florida State
2. Alabama
3. Oregon
4. Ohio State
5. Stanford
6. Oklahoma
7. Auburn
8. UCF
9. Michigan State
10. Notre Dame
11. Clemson
12. Baylor
13. South Carolina
14. Arizona State
15. BYU
16. Missouri
17. Miami (FL)
18. Michigan
19. Oklahoma State
20. Fresno State
21. Northern Illinois
22. Louisville
23. Texas
24. LSU
25. UCLA

Hoying Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Marcus Mariota (QB--Ore)
3. Johnny Manziel (QB--TAMU)

Schweinfurth Top 25

1    1.    Oregon

2    2.   Florida State

3    3.    Alabama

4    4.    Ohio State

5    5.    Baylor

6    6.    Clemson

7    7.    Stanford

8    8.    Missouri

9    9.    Oklahoma

1    10. Auburn

1    11. Miami (FL)

1    12. LSU

1    13. Fresno State

1    14. UCLA

1    15. Wisconsin

1    16. Oklahoma State

1    17. Michigan State

1    18. South Carolina

1    19. Texas A&M

2    20. Georgia

2    21. UCF

2    22. Louisville

2    23. Northern Illinois

2    24. Arizona State

2    25. Minnesota

Schweinfurth Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Marcus Mariota (QB--Ore)

BCS Contenders: Blind Resume Analysis

By now, it's become clear that there are 5 undefeated teams vying for 2 spots in the BCS National Championship Game in Pasadena.  Each represents one of the 5 "power conferences": Florida State from the ACC, Baylor from the Big 12, Ohio State from the Big Ten, Oregon from the Pac-12, and Alabama from the SEC.

The national consensus is that Alabama and Oregon are firmly in the driver's seat to claim the coveted two seats at the championship table.  There's no doubt that these teams face the toughest upcoming schedules, with Alabama still having to play LSU, Auburn, and either Missouri or South Carolina, while Oregon must face Stanford, Oregon State, and (probably) Arizona State.

But I'm not interested in predicting the future here (weekly football picks notwithstanding).  I'm interested in what the teams have done to this point (in my view, the only legitimate factor in creating football rankings).   If you watch ESPN (or any other sports network), you'll hear something like, "Well, based on what the teams have done so far, Alabama is clearly #1, and Oregon is probably #2, or maybe Florida State, and these are really the only 3 teams in the discussion."  But do the facts support this analysis?  Let's take a look at the resumes of the 5 undefeated BCS contenders and decide for ourselves.

Each team will be assessed based on FBS opponents' aggregate win-loss record (not counting the losses against the team in question), number of wins over opponents with winning records, and average scoring margin.  We'll also look at each team's best overall win so far this season.
Again, these resumes have nothing to do with future opponents, because (1) until you beat a team, it makes no sense to get credit for having them on your schedule, and (2) you never know whether a future opponent will tank before you play them.

The resumes (order randomized):

TEAM A
Opponents' record:  31-31
Wins over teams with winning records: 3
Scoring margin: 31.5 ppg
Best win: 2-loss power conference team (on the road)

TEAM B
Opponents' record: 32-27
Wins over teams with winning records: 4
Scoring margin: 25.6 ppg
Best win: 2-loss power conference team (at home)

TEAM C
Opponents' record: 22-22
Wins over teams with winning records: 1
Scoring margin: 45.0 ppg
Best win: 2-loss mid-major team (at home)

TEAM D
Opponents' record: 25-28
Wins over teams with winning records: 2
Scoring margin: 35.3 ppg
Best win: 2-loss power conference team (at home)

TEAM E
Opponents' record: 34-17
Wins over teams with winning records: 3
Scoring margin: 36.6 ppg
Best win: 2 wins over 1-loss power conference teams (one at home, one on the road)

If I asked you to rank these five teams, what order would you choose?  You'd probably notice that teams C and E are pretty extreme outliers compared to the rest.  Team C is clearly 5th best, with no quality wins (though they have been blowing their terrible opponents away).  Team E is clearly far out front, with a severely lopsided opponent win-loss ratio, the two best wins, and a higher scoring margin than teams A, B, and D.

A, B, and D are harder to distinguish.  Team A has a nice road win, Team B has the best opponent win-loss ratio, and Team D has the highest scoring margin (though the weakest schedule).  At the risk of making these teams' identities even more obvious, let's look at each one's second best win.

TEAM A: 3-loss power conference team (neutral site)
TEAM B: 3-loss power conference team (at home)
TEAM D: 3-loss power conference team (on the road)

So, Team A has a nice road win, a decent neutral site win, and a 3rd quality win.  All of Team B's good wins appear to be at home, but their overall opponent quality is the best.  Team D has a nice home win and a decent road win, but that's it.  Who's the best?  Difficult to say.

The purpose of this post is not to claim that there's a clear hierarchy to the 5 undefeated teams.  I don't think Teams A, B, and D can be easily distinguished.  However, what is plain after this analysis is that the talking heads' narrative should sound a little more like this: "Well, Team E is undeniably #1, and it's a real dogfight between Team A, Team B, and Team D for the second spot.  Team C has some work to do in order to be in the discussion."

By the way, here are the teams' identities:
Team A = Alabama
Team B = Ohio State
Team C = Baylor
Team D = Oregon
Team E = Florida State

Check back later in the week to see our rankings.

Week 10: November is for Contenders

Standings
1) Schweinfurth    26-12      (3-6 upset)
2) Draper               25-13      (2-7 upset)
3) Hoying              24-14      (1-8 upset)

Miami Hurricanes @ Florida State Seminoles
Draper: A top ten matchup in November with your standard 21+ point spread. The Noles are riding high while the Canes just can't seem to lose no matter how much they try.  Duke Johnson is the real deal in the backfield for Miami, but that's pretty much the only position at which they have an advantage.  Famous Jameis is doing serious work, and I don't see a let down in Miami week.  This is a very heated rivalry that has cooled a bit recent years, but don't let this trick you...these guys hate each other.  When I was at FSU, the Noles took 3 of 4 from the Gators and lost 3 of 4 to the Canes (2 to heartbreaking missed field goals). I want blood.  Noles step on the gas and keep it going for a blowout.  UM: 20--FSU: 52
Hoying: This year we might see a glimpse of what was once one of the top rivalries nationwide. The Noles and the Canes haven't come into this game with 0 combined losses since 2003 (not counting the few times they've met in the season opener). Unfortunately, one of these teams seems to be a complete mirage. Whereas Florida State has rolled merrily along, crushing Clemson on the road and destroying almost everyone else on their schedule, Miami has struggled mightily, sneaking past a mediocre Florida team at home and needing last-minute scores to dispatch bad North Carolina and Wake Forest squads. Give the Hurricanes credit for doing what it takes to get to November undefeated, but their Golden season ends now. Nastily. UM: 17--FSU: 34
Schweinfurth: This game was interesting to me...until I watched Miami struggle last week.  Don't get me wrong, Duke Johnson is really good, but the rest of that offense is not very good.  Florida State's offense can make any defense look silly.  Miami's defense isn't quite the "U" defense that dominated opponents and I think Florida State is absolutely for real this year.  Total domination by the 'Noles this week.
UM: 13--FSU: 42

Michigan Wolverines @ Michigan State Spartans
Draper: A little hint for you...little brother is quietly having a really nice season.  Michigan had the preseason hype, but Dantonio's Spartans are nasty on defense and quietly moving through the Legends.  Yes, they play ugly, yes, they win ugly, but they are winning.  The offense is predominantly walrusball, but the defense is an immovable object.  Sparty had a Sparty YES moment before halftime last week that Bollman certainly drew up in the kitchen (tipped pass that should have been intercepted twice completed for a TD on 4th down with no time left in the half).  The Wolverines have been supremely unimpressive outside of their tight end Funyons (yeah, I don't know the actual name, but this is better).  When does the little brother supplant the big?  How much domination is needed? UM: 13--MSU: 20
Hoying: While I don't give a damn for the whole state this game's being played for, it does have huge implications for the final Legends division race. The Wolverines are coming off a bye to face a Spartan squad that put up an impressive 14 points against one of the worst defenses in the country (see game prediction #4 for the identity of this mystery team). However, for Michigan to win this game, they'll have to move the ball against arguably the nation's best defense. The Spartan front 7 are sure to give Michigan's RBs Fitz, so this one will fall squarely on the shoulders of Tom Harm...er, Devin Gardner. In two road games thus far, #98 has put up a combined 28/53 for 351 yards, 3 TDs, and 4 INTs. And that was against winless UConn and the same Penn State that gave up 2+ TDs to 3 different Buckeyes last week. Yikes. Get ready to eat some dirt, Shoelace II. UM: 10--MSU: 13
Schweinfurth: This has always been one of my favorite B1G rivalries through the years.  This game is down right nasty and always produces a close, entertaining game.  I really like the Spartan defense, I really don't like the Spartan's offense (*cough* Walrus *cough*).  Michigan I just don't get.  Gardner just can't go a game without forgetting what color jersey he should be throwing to (hint: white jerseys this week).  After watching some of the teams in the Legends Division, this game is most definitely the Legends Division championship game.  I don't expect Michigan State's offense to do much but that defense is going to give them great field position all day long (plus maybe a pick six).  I'll even throw Bollman a fish for maybe an offensive touchdown.  This game is closer on the scoreboard than it really should be but Sparty YES!! 
UM: 9--MSU: 24

Oklahoma State Cowboys @ Texas Tech Red Raiders
Draper: Two nice looking teams without a win of note between them.  Kingsbury has the Red Raiders clicking on offense with terrific freshman QB play and OSU has quietly been sneaking around in the Big 12.  I haven't seen much of these teams other than to form the opinion that they're nice teams around the 15-20 ranking...nothing elite, but good teams.  I'll go with the home team in a close one.  The Texas Tech fans usually go a little crazy close to Halloween.  OSU: 35--TT: 38
Hoying: What a terrific matchup!  How about that great win Oklahoma State had over...well, what about Texas Tech's...huh...at least they kept it close with Oklahoma!  Moral victories!  Anyway, the Red Raiders do pass the eye test, as new HC Kliff Kingsbury has managed to maintain the old air raid offense while instituting a decent defense as well. Tech hasn't beaten Okie State since they darn near won the Big 12 title in 2008, but this year the streak ends. The Red Raiders stay in the title hunt while the Cowboys quietly slip away. OSU: 24--TTU: 45 
Schweinfurth: Hey, did anyone notice that Kliff Kingsbury looks like Ryan Gosling? Honestly the only thing I know about these teams are the coaches.  Neither team has really played a great schedule and both are back loaded with the best Big XII teams.  It's at Texas Tech so I'll take the home team in a shootout.   
OSU: 38--TTU: 45

THE Ohio State Buckeyes @ Purdue Boilermakers
Draper: Bad....really bad.  That's Purdue.  Good...potentially really good.  That's OSU.  With that being said, Troy Smith, Terrelle Pryor, and Braxton Miller have a grand total of 0 wins in West Lafayette.  I think that changes this year.  Ryan Kerrigan is walking on for Purdue and this OSU team is....not the pile of crap from 2 years ago.  Another big day for Hyde and Miller on the ground as the Bucks start running the clock out early.  The motivation is there to avenge past losses in Ross-Ade so I doubt will see a let down.  Hyde for 150, Braxton throws for 200 and runs for 100, then it's time for Kenny G.  Comfortable win, but not as big as last week.  There's just no reason.  I want to see if the defense keeps it up for 2 weeks in a row.  OSU: 55--PU: 24
Hoying: Purdue is an appalling dump heap, overflowing with the most disgraceful assortment of deplorable rubbish imaginable, mangled up in tangled-up knots. Buckeye Nation wishes that first-year coach Darrell Hazell could be having a better season, but they hope even harder that his signature win doesn't come this weekend, against a team the Boilers have tagged 4 of the last 6 times they've visited scenic West Lafayette. What can be said about a game like this?  Ohio State is better than Purdue in every way. Unless this has become some kind of "helmet game" for our esteemed men of the scarlet and gray, this contest should make last week's Penn State debacle look like a nail-biter.  Get used to it. OSU: 52--PU: 16
Schweinfurth: It seems like forever since the Buckeyes have won in West Lafayette. Those losses included such Ohio State QBs as Troy Smith, Terrel Pryor, and yes, even Braxton Miller.  The common denominator: Urban Meyer was NOT the head coach.  This Buckeye team is laser focused now and that showed last week.  This Purdue team is some kind of bad.  If the Bucks can drop over 600 yards of offense on Penn State, just think of what can they do to the Boilermaker defense.  I really expect this to be a "name your score" game.  I think we see another flat dominant performance by the offense and a couple of INTs from the defense.  OSU: 63--PU: 17

Upset Special
Draper: Tennessee over Missouri
Hoying: Iowa over Wisconsin
Schweinfurth: Washington St. over Arizona St.

Top 25, Heisman Ballots, and updated BCS projections

Rankings, as always, are based on what teams have done so far, not how we believe they will finish.

Draper Top 25
1. Alabama
2. Florida State
3. Oregon
4. Ohio State
5. Clemson
6. Baylor
7. Miami (FL)
8. Missouri
9. Stanford
10. Oklahoma 
11. Auburn
12. South Carolina
13. LSU
14. Texas A&M
15. UCF 
16. Michigan State
17. Louisville
18. Oklahoma State
19. Wisconsin
20. UCLA
21. Texas Tech
22. Fresno State
23. Northern Illinois
24. Arizona State
25. Michigan

Draper Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB-FSU)
2. Marcus Mariota (QB-Oregon)
3. Johnny Manziel (QB-TAMU)

Draper BCS Picks
BCS National Championship: Alabama vs. Oregon
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Stanford
Orange Bowl: Florida State vs. Wisconsin
Sugar Bowl: South Carolina vs. UCF
Fiesta Bowl: Baylor vs. Clemson 
*Note: I believe the bowls will desire Clemson but will not want a rematch (vs. FSU or South Carolina).  Fresno State will replace Clemson if they go undefeated and automatically qualify.



Hoying Top 25
1. Florida State
2. Alabama
3. Oregon
4. Ohio State
5. Stanford
6. Oklahoma
7. Auburn
8. Miami (FL)
9. UCF
10. Michigan
11. Notre Dame
12. South Carolina
13. Clemson
14. Baylor
15. Missouri
16. LSU
17. Fresno State
18. Northern Illinois
19. Louisville
20. BYU
21. Texas
22. Arizona State
23. Michigan State
24. Virginia Tech
25. Duke

Hoying Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Marcus Mariota (QB--Ore)
3. Johnny Manziel (QB--TAMU)

Hoying BCS Picks
BCS National Championship: Oregon vs. Florida State
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Stanford (don't be surprised if Alabama gets taken instead)
Orange Bowl: Alabama vs. Oklahoma
Sugar Bowl: Auburn vs. UCF
Fiesta Bowl: Baylor vs. Northern Illinois



Schweinfurth Top 25
1. Oregon
2. Alabama
3. Florida State
4. Ohio State
5. Baylor
6. Miami (FL)
7. Clemson
8. Stanford
9. Missouri
10. Oklahoma
11. Auburn
12. LSU
13. Fresno State
14. Texas Tech
15. UCLA
16. Wisconsin
17. Oklahoma State
18. Michigan
19. Texas A&M
20. Georgia
21. South Carolina
22. Michigan State
23. UCF
24. Louisville
25. Northern Illinois


Schweinfurth Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Marcus Mariota (QB--Oreg)

Schweinfurth BCS Picks
BCS National Championship: Florida State vs. Alabama
Rose Bowl:Orange Bowl: Oregon vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Baylor
Sugar Bowl: Missouri vs. Stanford
Fiesta Bowl: Notre Dame vs. Louisville

Grading the Bucks--Week 9: Penn State--That's better

Offense: A
The offense finally showed what they can do.  All cylinders were firing.  3 passing TDs from Braxton (and he looked sharp), 2 rushing TDs each from Braxton, Hyde, and Guiton--can't expect too much more.  Dontre Wilson finally got in the endzone and looked explosive on a sensational kick return.  What is there to say? My favorite stat from Sat is the 0 turnovers.  That makes a huge difference in the final score.  I saw poise and confidence in the entire offense.  They looked comfortable and ready for anything.  I loved what I saw from the receivers blocking down field.  Watch the long Braxton Miller TD run, Smith hold a block perfectly for 4-5 seconds.  Give him the TD for his contribution.

Defense: A-/B+
2 huge picks were an enormous boon (although the second was an egregious missed DPI).  Pitt Brown's int in the endzone really took the wind out of the Lion sails.  I was unhappy again that our d-line was getting manhandled on run plays and the line of scrimmage was habitually established 2-3 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, but the linebackers were quick to fill in before too much damage was done.  Moving Roby off of the primary target seemed to work...he's lost a LOT of money this year.  Let's not go crazy on this defense, they're still not very good (PSU helped a ton with missed throws and dropped passes), but they rattled Hackenburg and kept the Lions in check.  If this were 2005, they'd earn a C+/B-, but this defense is graded on a different level.

Special Teams: A-
No FG attempts, no punt returns, solid net punting....but one kickoff out of bounds...really?  Nitpicking, but when you aren't on the field much, you need to be perfect. Wilson was darn near perfect on the kick return with the 'circle button PS3 move'.

Coaching: A
Moving Roby to cover the TE and assist against the run was extremely successful.  The first few plays showed the film study worked as OSU gouged the PSU defense on the same play 3 times.  Coaching was good, but execution was better.

Overall: A
In my opinion, this was the best overall game by the Bucks this year (FAMU doesn't count).  If we can keep imposing our will like this, good things will happen.

Marching Band: A++++
Humble brag, but the show turned out as well as I expected (can't say better because I have high expectations with past crowd responses).

Week 9--Last call for undefeated teams?

Standings
1) Schweinfurth    23-10      (3-5 upset)
2) Draper               22-11      (1-7 upset)
3) Hoying              20-13      (1-7 upset)

UCLA Bruins @ Oregon Ducks
Draper: The premier game resides in Eugene.  Oregon's one win came over a very good, but beat up, Washington Huskies squad.  Can they do it against another up and coming program?  In Autzen, I think they are the big favorites.  UCLA stubbed their toe against Stanford last week which seems to be the formula for good teams playing Oregon (get softened up by Stanford first).  Mariota and Hundley will both have good games, but the road environment will be too much to overcome for the Bruins.  The football monopoly may be over in LA, but not so much in the Pac 12.  UCLA: 28--UO: 48
Hoying: Stanford ruins everything.  First they lose to Utah to spoil an undefeated Stanford-UCLA game, then they beat UCLA to spoil an undefeated UCLA-Oregon matchup.  Bruin QB Brett Hundley has finally come down to earth after a hot start, and I don't see him getting much more breathing room against a punishing Duck D.  On the other side of the ball, the UCLA defense doesn't have the horses to keep up with Super Mariota and company.  I don't see this being close.  UCLA: 20--UO: 52
Schweinfurth: I gotta keep these short this week due to personal time constraints.  I think this will turn into a second half blow out.  UCLA will stick with Oregon in the first half, but just too many offensive weapons for the Ducks.  
UCLA: 24--UO: 45

Texas Tech Red Raiders @ Oklahoma Sooners
Draper: Texas Tech is another one of those 'yeah we're undefeated, but...' teams. The schedule has been soft but Oklahoma hasn't faced a premier opponent yet either.  Big game Bob is really tough to beat in Norman and I don't think this year is any different.  The cinderella story with Kliff Kingsbury is a good one, but I think this game is above the ceiling for this year.  The future is bright in Lubbock, but the future is not now. TT: 24--OU: 31
Hoying: Savor these next three days, Red Raider fans.  Savor the fantasy of going undefeated and playing for a national championship before you fall flat on your face and slip to the middle of the Big 12 pack.  Texas Tech has looked impressive so far against the Little Sisters of the Poor, but it's time for big boy football, with 4 of the next 5 games coming against the top 4 teams in the conference.  And the most talented squad is up first.  Oklahoma has already proven themselves decent with a nice road win over Notre Dame, and they will continue to get stronger as QB Blake Bell continues to develop.  Sooners in a close one.  TT: 27--OU: 28
Schweinfurth: Texas Tech has come a long way but as I said previously, I think Oklahoma is the second best team in the Big XII.  Fortunately for the Sooners, it's not the Red Raiders.  TT: 21--OU: 34

South Carolina Gamecocks @ Missouri Tigers
Draper: Missouri is on the rise and the Gamecocks are falling fast.  Looks like this could be a battle of backup QBs with Connor Shaw's knee.  Mauk was impressive last week against a stout Gator defense.  The backup for South Carolina has experience, but Missouri is riding the wave.  This is a tough one, but I'm going with the hot hand in a really close game.  HBC loses another heartbreaker on the road.  SoCar: 17--Mizzou: 20
Hoying: How long can Missouri weather the absence of James Franklin?  The Florida defense is no slouch, and Mauk and the Tigers carved them up worse than any opponent the Gators have yet faced.  Missouri appears to be for real this year, while South Carolina has struggled at times.  It's hard to see them getting better after losing QB Connor Shaw.  A Tiger win virtually seals the SEC East for Mizzou and puts them on a collision course with the winner of the Iron Bowl.  SoCar: 24--Mizzou: 34
Schweinfurth: Mizzou is rolling right now and Maty Mauk looked good this past week.  Blah, blah, Jedeveon Clowney, blah, blah, he won't be a factor. SCAR: 20--Mizzou: 40

Stanford Cardinal @ Oregon State Beavers
Draper: I wanted this for an upset special.  I have not been particularly impressed with Stanford this year and I've made that clear with my picks.  Oregon State is the forgotten team in the Pac 12 after an early loss to FCS Eastern Washington.  Mannion has been fantastic and the passing game in general has been unstoppable.  Stanford can match up on the lines, but this west coast dink and dunk offense will give them fits.  Corvallis is usually home to one upset a year and this is it (even though OSU is pretty good).  Stan: 30--OSU: 34
Hoying: There's only one reason to consider picking the Beavers in this game: QB juggernaut Sean Mannion.  The junior leads all NCAA passers and is a true difference maker.  However, let's look at the defenses he's seen.  Eastern Washington.  Hawaii.  Utah.  San Diego State.  Colorado.  Washington State.  California.  You may recognize 1 of these as an FCS team, and 2 of the others made Ohio State's backup quarterback look like Peyton Manning.  What will Mannion do when he faces not just the first competent defense he's seen all year, but an excellent one?  The Beavers get blasted, that's what happens.  Stan: 45--OSU: 24
Schweinfurth: Oregon State has recovered nicely from that week 1 upset.  Remember, this team almost went undefeated a year ago.  I expect Stanford's slide to continue. Stan: 14--OSU: 31

Penn State Nittany Lions @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: The Buckeye defense stepped up in the 2nd half last week and they'll need to be on this week vs. Hackenburg.  PSU has been somewhat of a yo-yo team, but the scholarship reductions and sanctions are beginning to show.  This is Urban and the Buckeyes stage to turn some heads.  Penn State has the name recognition to make a big win here mean something.  Time to unleash Braxton and Carlos to show the nation the Bucks are for real.  Style points don't matter any more, but they certainly don't hurt.  The defense will be good enough and the offense will (finally) have their way.  The most important part is the halftime show this week (I helped design it).  Hope everyone enjoys! PSU: 20--OSU: 45
Hoying: Another year, another scrappy Penn State quarterback with lots of moxie.  Here's how this one will play out.  Hackenberg will come out and throw for 200 yards in the first half as Penn State keeps it close.  Then Carlos Hyde will start eating defenders, starting with the scrawny DBs and working up to the meaty linemen.  When he's sated, he'll leave Jekyll behind completely and enter full-on beast mode, scoring repeatedly and at will.  Meanwhile, Hackenberg will throw 3 or 4 pick-sixes and Brent Musberger will feign sympathy as he thanks his lucky stars that his bet on Ohio State to cover won't result in his legs getting broken.  Then, Mark May and Gary Danielson will lambaste the Buckeyes for another lackluster win over a weak opponent, while Lou Holtz desperately tries to juthtify Ohio Thate'th exthellent thschedule and Brackthton Miller's athtounding talent.  PSU: 17--OSU: 38 
Schweinfurth: This game is a bit scary for me.  The Ohio State secondary has been just shy of gawd awful at times.  But then I remember it's PSU (Pick Six University) and it's in the 'Shoe at night.  If the Silver Bullets come out flying like they did against Wisconsin, this is over in a hurry.  Roby gets the pick six and Buckeye nation will finally exhale about his play.  Braxton FINALLY throws for 300+ yards and El Guapo goes for 150+.  It's a big night for the Buckeye offense and The Chase rolls on. PSU: 24--OSU: 50

Upset Alert
Draper: Minn over Nebraska (but the real one is Oregon State)
Hoying: Tennessee over Alabama
Schweinfurth: NCSt over Florida State (sorry Chief, I called this on Monday)

Top 25 and Heisman Ballots

Rankings, as always, are based on what teams have done so far, not how we believe they will finish.

Draper Top 25
1. Alabama
2. Florida State
3. Missouri
4. Oregon
5. Ohio State
6. Baylor
7. Clemson
8. Miami (FL)
9. Texas Tech
10. Stanford
11. Auburn
12. UCLA
13. LSU
14. Texas A&M
15. Oklahoma
16. Fresno State
17. Virginia Tech
18. Wisconsin
19. UCF
20. Louisville
21. Oklahoma State
22. Nebraska
23. South Carolina
24. Northern Illinois
25. Oregon State

Draper Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB-FSU)
2. Marcus Mariota (QB-Oregon)
3. Johnny Manziel (QB-TAMU)

Hoying Top 25
1. Florida State
2. Alabama
3. Missouri
4. Ohio State
5. Oregon
6. Stanford
7. Auburn
8. Miami
9. UCLA
10. UCF
11. Clemson
12. Baylor
13. Oklahoma
14. Fresno State
15. Michigan
16. Virginia Tech
17. Texas Tech
18. Northern Illinois
19. South Carolina
20. Louisville
21. Nebraska
22. Notre Dame
23. Michigan State
24. Texas &M
25. Houston

Hoying Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Johnny Manziel (QB--TAMU)
3. Marcus Mariota (QB--Oregon)

Schweinfurth Top 25

1. Oregon
2. Alabama
3. Florida State
4. Ohio State
5. Baylor
6. Missouri
7. UCLA
8. Miami (FL)
9. Clemson
10. Stanford
11. Texas Tech
12. Auburn
13. Oklahoma
14. Washington
15. LSU
16. Fresno State
17. Wisconsin
18. Virginia Tech
19. Oklahoma State
20. Michigan
21. Texas A&M
22. Georgia
23. Nebraska
24. Northwestern
25. South Carolina

Schweinfurth Heisman Ballot

Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
Marcus Mariota (QB--Ore)
*I can't think of a third person that deserves my vote (and yes that includes Johnny Football).

Grading the Bucks--Week 8: Iowa

Offense: B+
Overall, this was a nice game for the offense.  Hyde ran hard, Braxton looked good both throwing and running, receivers caught passes, and the line did their job.  It's not an A because nothing special happened.  Iowa is a so-so team and I didn't see the absolute dominance that I believe we should have seen.  Wilson was affecting the game in multiple ways (see the safeties reaction to play action on the Philly Brown TD).  He is certainly a weapon, but his size may be a liability down the road.  Hyde was beastly when we needed.  Not too much to complain about except only 34 points against Iowa... I like the 0 in the turnover column, but that fumble by Braxton at the end of the game...can. not. happen.

Defense: C
I'll take the flack for this from the 'bloggers' and those that want to do their best to seem unbiased: the Roby hit was not an ejectable offense.  The helmets grazed but only after the tight end turned into it.  Roby's hit was with the shoulder and the follow-through caught the edge of the helmet.  Many say it's textbook targeting, but I completely disagree.  His feet do not leave the ground; the crown of the helmet makes no contact; intent is clearly to dislodge the ball, not to injure a 'defenseless' receiver.  We've gotten to a point that laudable defensive plays are now illegal.  Ask Ferentz and I'm sure he'd say it was a good hit (but probably not to the media).  Perhaps that's where we're at in football now, but I firmly believe that you can indeed judge intent and the helmet to helmet was an incidental blow.  He absolutely wrecked the receiver, but not in a way that wasn't in line with the rules (or if you want to really argue, my belief in the rules).
Now, about the defense.  Iowa is not good.  I was less concerned with the pass defense (I know they suck) than I was with the run defense.  Our rush ends are very fast (like SEC fast--sarcasm), but Iowa played traditional B1G football and pushed us back.  The line of scrimmage was habitually established 3 yards downfield.  Seems that the recruitment of big fat cornfed boys might be needed at times.  The boons to the defense were the adjustments made in the second half.  Sans one total break down play (how does a safety or CB not catch a tight end?) the defense was quite good in the second half.  Tressel's teams were always slow after a bye and hopefully, this is a bye hangover.  Need to bring it at all times and we didn't bring consistent energy and enthusiasm for 60 minutes.

Special Teams: B
No punts...no problems...no missed kicks.  Woo.

Coaching: B+
The defensive coaches did a very nice job at halftime fixing the issues.  I thought the intensity (overall) in the second half was increased and that's a coaching plus.  For the intensity of the first half being lax...that's a minus.  The offense looked pretty good, but not very many explosive plays.  I still question if the coaches trust Braxton to throw the deep ball on a consistent basis. Our receivers are better than they get credit for.  Use them.  Not a knock on Hyde, but his beastliness should open up the passing game.

Overall: B
Win.  Yay! 10 points over Iowa. Hmmm... Style points don't matter (and never really have) with the schedule.  Just keep winning and let the other teams fall by the wayside.

Missing the BCS National Championship? How likely is it?

Shortly, the freshly minted BCS rankings will be released.  Alabama is a lock for #1, and #2 will most probably be Oregon (or maybe Florida State).  Meanwhile, 5 other undefeated BCS conference teams (Ohio State, Missouri, Baylor, Miami, and Texas Tech) will be stuck looking up at the 3 clear favorites, wondering whether an undefeated season will be enough for a shot at the title.  With the end of the regular season just 7 short weeks away, everyone from ESPN to the Bleacher Report will be crafting their doomsday scenarios where 3, 4, or 5 teams finish unbeaten.  They’ll talk about style points and weak schedules and SEC supremacy.  They’ll debate whether a 1-loss Alabama deserved to get in over an undefeated Texas Tech.  But how likely is it that we’ll have much of a controversy at all?

***Opinion disclaimer: the only controversies worth talking about are ones in which one undefeated team is picked over another.  If you can’t win all your games, and you don’t play in a power conference (ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-12, SEC), you don’t have an absolute right to play in the title game.  One 1-loss team getting picked over another isn't controversial, unless it’s 2011 and a team that lost its division gets a rematch against a team to which it already lost.***

As stated before, there are currently 8 undefeated teams from power conferences (sorry, Northern Illinois and Fresno State).  This may seem like a lot, but how does it compare with previous years?  Following is a yearly list of how many teams from power conferences were undefeated when the initial BCS rankings were released (Big East counts as a power conference historically).

1998: 6 teams
1999: 5 teams
2000: 4 teams
2001: 7 teams
2002: 7 teams
2003: 3 teams
2004: 5 teams
2005: 7 teams
2006: 6 teams
2007: 5 teams
2008: 5 teams
2009: 5 teams
2010: 7 teams
2011: 8 teams
2012: 10 teams + ineligible Ohio State

Median: 6        Mean: 6

So the 8 undefeated teams this year constitute an unusually high count, but not by a wide margin.  It may seem, then, that we’re more likely to see a multiple-undefeated-team controversy this season.  In a way, yes, but we’re overlooking something.  In each year of the BCS, the undefeated field was culled by some of the teams playing each other.  For example, upcoming in this season, Alabama plays Missouri, Baylor plays Texas Tech, and Florida State plays Miami.  This means, that at worst, we’ll have 5 undefeated BCS contenders at season’s end.  How does this adjusted number compare to the worst-case scenarios from previous years?

1998: 5 teams
1999: 5 teams
2000: 3 teams
2001: 4 teams
2002: 6 teams
2003: 2 teams
2004: 5 teams
2005: 4 teams
2006: 3 teams
2007: 5 teams
2008: 3 teams
2009: 4 teams
2010: 4 teams
2011: 5 teams
2012: 5 teams + ineligible Ohio State

Median: 4        Mean: 4.2

We’re still at the higher end, but not abnormally so.

The last list shows that over the course of the BCS, we've had the potential for a multiple-undefeated-team controversy every single season except 2003 (where, oddly, the BCS ended up having the greatest controversy, though for a different reason).  How many times, then, have we seen greater than two undefeated teams at season’s end?

Twice: in 2004 (USC vs. Oklahoma, Auburn left out), and in 2009, (Alabama vs. Texas, Cincinnati left out).

In fact, in 6 years (1998, 2000, 2001, 2006, 2011, 2012), only one team finished undefeated, and in another 3 years (2003, 2007, 2008), NO teams finished undefeated.  The teams that did not make it through unscathed lost an average of 1.9 games each.

Were we ever close to another controversy?  Notable close calls came in 1999 (Florida State and Virginia Tech went undefeated, Kansas State had 1 loss), 2002 (Miami and Ohio State went undefeated, Georgia had 1 loss), and 2010 (Oregon and Auburn went undefeated, Michigan State had 1 loss).  It’s interesting to note that all of these potential controversies were resolved by mid-November.

But, you might inquire, the teams who averted disaster by losing must have lost to some quality opponents, and look at the cupcake schedule Ohio State, Baylor, Miami, etc, has remaining!  However, a glance the past 15 seasons reveals that, of the 70 previously undefeated teams who lost down the stretch:

15 of them lost to opponents with losing or .500 records
32 more lost to opponents with fewer than 10 wins
6 more lost to other teams that were undefeated when the initial BCS rankings were released

Only 17 teams had to be taken down by an elite opponent that wasn't also in the BCS title hunt.

The upshot: don’t worry too much if you’re a Buckeye, or Bear, or Hurricane fan.  Chances are (1) your undefeated team won’t get shut out of the BCS championship, and (2) you’ll probably have 2 losses by that point anyway.