Take a deep breath everyone. It's going to be ok. There are FAR too many people jumping off the deep end concerning a slow start against Navy. I know I'm a homer, but I saw far more positives than negatives in that game. Also, the defense is built to stop all of the other opponents on our schedule. The option provides little information.
Offense: B
This could (and should have been higher), but the coaches insisted on taking it easy on the freshman early. I think it was apparent that treating JT with kids' gloves was a mistake. When they opened up the playbook, he became much more comfortable and looks better throwing the ball than Braxton. Yes, the interception was a horrible freshman blunder, but it happens--great teaching moment. I've been on record disliking Tom Herman's offense with all the read options and lack of a consistent downfield passing game, but he's going to need to change a bit. The threats are too good and Barrett can hit them in stride. Zeke wasn't showcased as much as I expected, but Samuel looked fantastic. Overall, I would have liked/expected more points, but Barrett appeared forced into 'don't screw it up' mode in the first half. Once the trust was shown, he shined. The only area of concern was a little chink in the O-line that was beastly last year. They'll improve, but it will take time.
Defense: B
I honestly take very little (information) defensively from this game. The adjustments at half were tremendous as someone actually covered the pitch man as the game progressed, but we won't face this offense again. Darron Lee looked really good and I expect more great things from him. The secondary wasn't tested at all and the line couldn't play to their strengths. Bennett was a handful up front and Bosa consistently hit the QB. There were still some missed tackles which brought back nightmares of last year, but I'm hoping that was first game jitters. We'll learn a lot more about this unit this upcoming week.
Special Teams: A
The freshman kicker looked excellent calmly drilling a 45 yarder to get things going. More impressive was the always steady Cameron Johnston booming ridiculous punts (58+ yarder in the air touchback?!?) If Urban needs to punt, he's gonna feel pretty good with Johnston. The return game looked pretty good too with some sizzle from Wilson. Expect him to take one to the house soon.
Coaching: B
I appears that my pleas have yet again fallen on deaf ears...on 4th and a foot--SNEAK THE BALL!! I have no idea why a quarterback in any system is not taught how to take a snap from under center. This also follows from my disbelief that a simple dive play or iso has been removed from the play book. Screens are nice...to mix things up, but nothing wrong with a quick slant or traditional route. I'm ok with the aggressive playcalling (i.e., going for 4th down), but I think the plays called in those situations need some review.
Overall: B+
Navy is the worst program to schedule, but the Buckeyes got through it. Don't let the talking heads at ESPiN confuse you: Navy won 9 games last year and was a far bigger challenge than some of the other marquee matchups. Nowhere near FSU/Oklahoma State, LSU?Wisconsin, or Clemson/UGA, but Navy is better than West Virginia...ask Hoying to show the results of media bias. Credit to the academy for a tough game. More credit to OSU for growing up quite a bit offensively in 60 minutes. I'm truly excited to see what this team will bring in the future. Lots of talent, but that's only part of the equation. Expectations don't change much for me after the Braxton injury. Most likely scenario is 10-2 (loss @MSU and vs. someone who shouldn't beat us), but I'd be far more surprised with 9-3 than I would with 12-0. Go Bucks!
Tuesday, September 02, 2014
Saturday, August 30, 2014
Preseason Predictions
Conference Champions
ACC (Atlantic, Coastal, Champ)
Draper: A: FSU, C: VaTech, Champ: FSU
Hoying: A: FSU, C: VaTech, Champ: FSU
Schweinfurth: A: FSU, C: VaTech, Champ: FSU
Seeberg: A: FSU, C: Miami, Champ: FSU
B1G (East, West, Champ)
Draper: E: OSU, W: Nebraska, Champ: OSU (Homer pick but I'm going for gel before East Lansing)
Hoying: E: MSU, W: Iowa, Champ: MSU
Schweinfurth: E: OSU, W: Nebraska, Champ: OSU (Same as Draper, but you can't overlook the Spartans losses on D)
Seeberg: E: MSU, W: Wisconsin, Champ: MSU
Big 12
Draper: Oklahoma
Hoying: Baylor
Schweinfurth: Oklahoma
Seeberg: Oklahoma (for lack of a better option)
Pac 12 (North, South, Champ)
Draper: N: Oregon, S: UCLA, Champ: UCLA
Hoying: N: Oregon, S: UCLA, Champ: UCLA
Schweinfurth: N: Oregon, S: UCLA, Champ: Oregon
Seeberg: N: Stanford (hopeful- I hate Oregon) S: UCLA, Champ: UCLA
SEC (East, West, Champ)
Draper: E: UGA, W: Bama, Champ: Bama
Hoying: E: UGA, W: LSU, Champ: UGA
Schweinfurth: E: UGA, W: Bama, Champ: UGA
Seeberg: E: UGA, W: Bama, Champ: Bama
Playoffs (champ in bold)
Draper: FSU, Bama, OSU, UCLA
Hoying: FSU, UGA, MSU, Baylor
Schweinfurth: FSU, UGA, OSU, Oregon
Seeberg: UCLA, FSU, MSU, Bama
Heisman Ballot
Draper
1) Jameis Winston
2) Brett Hundley
3) Todd Gurley
Dark Horse: JT Barrett (redshirt freshman #3?)
Hoying
1) Jameis Winston
2) Bryce Petty
3) Marcus Mariota
Dark Horse: Devin Gardner
Schweinfurth
1) Todd Durley
2) Jameis Winston
3) Trevor Knight
Dark Horse: Keenan Williams
Seeberg
1) Todd Gurley
2) Brett Hundley
3) Jameis Winston
Dark Horse: Nick Marshall
ACC (Atlantic, Coastal, Champ)
Draper: A: FSU, C: VaTech, Champ: FSU
Hoying: A: FSU, C: VaTech, Champ: FSU
Schweinfurth: A: FSU, C: VaTech, Champ: FSU
Seeberg: A: FSU, C: Miami, Champ: FSU
B1G (East, West, Champ)
Draper: E: OSU, W: Nebraska, Champ: OSU (Homer pick but I'm going for gel before East Lansing)
Hoying: E: MSU, W: Iowa, Champ: MSU
Schweinfurth: E: OSU, W: Nebraska, Champ: OSU (Same as Draper, but you can't overlook the Spartans losses on D)
Seeberg: E: MSU, W: Wisconsin, Champ: MSU
Big 12
Draper: Oklahoma
Hoying: Baylor
Schweinfurth: Oklahoma
Seeberg: Oklahoma (for lack of a better option)
Pac 12 (North, South, Champ)
Draper: N: Oregon, S: UCLA, Champ: UCLA
Hoying: N: Oregon, S: UCLA, Champ: UCLA
Schweinfurth: N: Oregon, S: UCLA, Champ: Oregon
Seeberg: N: Stanford (hopeful- I hate Oregon) S: UCLA, Champ: UCLA
SEC (East, West, Champ)
Draper: E: UGA, W: Bama, Champ: Bama
Hoying: E: UGA, W: LSU, Champ: UGA
Schweinfurth: E: UGA, W: Bama, Champ: UGA
Seeberg: E: UGA, W: Bama, Champ: Bama
Playoffs (champ in bold)
Draper: FSU, Bama, OSU, UCLA
Hoying: FSU, UGA, MSU, Baylor
Schweinfurth: FSU, UGA, OSU, Oregon
Seeberg: UCLA, FSU, MSU, Bama
Heisman Ballot
Draper
1) Jameis Winston
2) Brett Hundley
3) Todd Gurley
Dark Horse: JT Barrett (redshirt freshman #3?)
Hoying
1) Jameis Winston
2) Bryce Petty
3) Marcus Mariota
Dark Horse: Devin Gardner
Schweinfurth
1) Todd Durley
2) Jameis Winston
3) Trevor Knight
Dark Horse: Keenan Williams
Seeberg
1) Todd Gurley
2) Brett Hundley
3) Jameis Winston
Dark Horse: Nick Marshall
Friday, August 29, 2014
Buckeyes: Better Off With Braxton Hurt?
Entering a new season, a team's expectations are built mostly on last year's performance and the quality of the returning players. For example, following an undefeated 2012 campaign, expectations for Ohio State in 2013 were national championship or bust. While the 2012 Buckeyes weren't exactly dominant, the team returned the entire offense minus one offensive lineman and a wide receiver. While the defense suffered heavy losses to the line and the linebackers, the depth of the line and the return of star LB Ryan Shazier seemed to be enough to keep the ship steady. However, despite this wealth of talent and experience, the defense fizzled down the stretch and the season ended in supremely disappointing fashion.
The end of the 2013 season saw the departure of
Our star senior running back, Carlos Hyde
4 of 5 OL starters
Our ultra-dependable backup QB, Kenny Guiton
Reliable WR Philly Brown
The only excellent linebacker in a crew of scrubs, Ryan Shazier
3 of 4 DB starters
Our 4-year starting kicker, Drew Basil
All that remained was the excellent defensive line, a mediocre squad of receivers, and our record-setting QB Braxton Miller, who the coaches repeatedly described as a vastly improved passer. Championship expectations remained high, especially given the transition from a two-team to four-team championship playoff, but the optimism was a bit more cautious.
You know what happened next. Bye bye, Braxton; hello, J. T. Barrett. The 2014 championship hopes now appear all but dashed, unless Barrett turns out to be the next Jameis Winston (not even freshman Johnny Heisman could lead A&M to even a conference title, let alone a shot at the crystal football). However, given the question marks surrounding this year's men of the Scarlet and Gray, might the Buckeyes be better off in the long run with Braxton's senior campaign being deferred to 2015?
Let's have a look at the depth chart for this year. With so many new faces, it's tough to know who'll pan out and who'll flame out, but let's assume Urban knows what he's doing: the starters are the best players available and they'll continue to improve.
OFFENSIVE DEPTH CHART:
Offensive Line
The line returns only one starter from 2013, junior LT Taylor Decker. This crew will need some time to jell and may take a step back from last year's excellent squad. Looking forward, the offensive line has only one definite senior starter, RT Darryl Baldwin. Additionally, seniors might start at C and LG. But the two-deep for the line includes only these three seniors, which means the line is likely to largely remain intact next year, and will probably improve.
Wide Receivers
Here's where the turnover will hit hardest. All our starting receivers, including TE Jeff Heuerman, are seniors. It's not a stellar group (the Buckeyes haven't had a great receiver since Sanzenbacher), but the 2015 team will have to make sure their receivers are ready to be on the same page with Braxton.
Running Backs
Ezekiel Elliott and Dontre Wilson are plenty young, and another year of experience will make them all the more dangerous in 2015. We'll lose Rod Smith, but if he was going to make some noise, he'd have done so already.
Quarterback
Remember how nice it was to have a backup on whom we could rely to preserve any victory if Braxton went down? As this offseason showed, we'll need a competent backup to carry us forward whenever Braxton's senior campaign begins. I'd feel much better if that backup, either Barrett or Jones, had a year of experience under his belt, and this season is a perfect opportunity.
DEFENSIVE DEPTH CHART:
Defensive Line
Good news: other than the loss of Joel Hale (to the offensive line?!?) this outstanding crew is still intact. Better news: barring any early exits, the 2015 starting D line will lose only Michael Bennett (technically, senior Steve Miller is starting at Viper, but junior Noah Spence should be back to take his place soon). Don't expect any steps backward from this squad in the near future.
Linebackers
Ryan Shazier is gone, which is essentially equivalent to a full flush of the position. No one else in last year's corps was any good, but they'll have a chance to prove themselves anew under new co-DC Chris Ash. Fortunately, only one LB in the two-deep, captain Curtis Grant, will be gone next year, so expect this group to improve.
Defensive Backs
These guys sucked pretty bad last year, but their backups were even worse, and three of last year's starters (Bradley Roby, C. J. Barnett, Christian Bryant) are now gone. The good news is that 2015 will bring the departure of only Doran Grant, so these guys have another two years to channel their inner Silver Bullets.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Replacing a four-year kicker isn't easy, but Ohio State thinks they have an answer in freshman Sean Neurnberger. Again, he's a freshman, so look for him to improve over time. Also, last year's most undervalued Buckeye, P Cameron Johnston, is plenty young, so expect him to be an all-star by the time 2015 rolls around. Meanwhile, young speedsters Dontre Wilson and Jalin Marshall will be terrorizing oppenents' kicking and punting games for the foreseeable future.
BOTTOM LINE
The depth chart is notably light on senior leadership, even more so following the loss of Braxton. While it's tough to accept anything less than undefeated championship seasons at OSU, the thought of Braxton using another year to improve and get healthy and retaking the reins of an adversity-toughened 2015 squad sends chills down my spine. With Braxton's return, the 2015 Buckeyes could be the most talented and complete squad since 2006, or possibly of all time, if we can discover greatness among our stable of running backs and turn a corner in the secondary.
So grit your teeth, Buckeye Nation, and prepare for what should be an exciting 2014. Don't cry for Braxton or the Buckeyes. If Barrett turns out to be terrific, this team could still end up in Pasadena. If he experiences some growing pains, remember that the best is yet to come for Urban and the Bucks.
The end of the 2013 season saw the departure of
Our star senior running back, Carlos Hyde
4 of 5 OL starters
Our ultra-dependable backup QB, Kenny Guiton
Reliable WR Philly Brown
The only excellent linebacker in a crew of scrubs, Ryan Shazier
3 of 4 DB starters
Our 4-year starting kicker, Drew Basil
All that remained was the excellent defensive line, a mediocre squad of receivers, and our record-setting QB Braxton Miller, who the coaches repeatedly described as a vastly improved passer. Championship expectations remained high, especially given the transition from a two-team to four-team championship playoff, but the optimism was a bit more cautious.
You know what happened next. Bye bye, Braxton; hello, J. T. Barrett. The 2014 championship hopes now appear all but dashed, unless Barrett turns out to be the next Jameis Winston (not even freshman Johnny Heisman could lead A&M to even a conference title, let alone a shot at the crystal football). However, given the question marks surrounding this year's men of the Scarlet and Gray, might the Buckeyes be better off in the long run with Braxton's senior campaign being deferred to 2015?
Let's have a look at the depth chart for this year. With so many new faces, it's tough to know who'll pan out and who'll flame out, but let's assume Urban knows what he's doing: the starters are the best players available and they'll continue to improve.
OFFENSIVE DEPTH CHART:
Offensive Line
The line returns only one starter from 2013, junior LT Taylor Decker. This crew will need some time to jell and may take a step back from last year's excellent squad. Looking forward, the offensive line has only one definite senior starter, RT Darryl Baldwin. Additionally, seniors might start at C and LG. But the two-deep for the line includes only these three seniors, which means the line is likely to largely remain intact next year, and will probably improve.
Wide Receivers
Here's where the turnover will hit hardest. All our starting receivers, including TE Jeff Heuerman, are seniors. It's not a stellar group (the Buckeyes haven't had a great receiver since Sanzenbacher), but the 2015 team will have to make sure their receivers are ready to be on the same page with Braxton.
Running Backs
Ezekiel Elliott and Dontre Wilson are plenty young, and another year of experience will make them all the more dangerous in 2015. We'll lose Rod Smith, but if he was going to make some noise, he'd have done so already.
Quarterback
Remember how nice it was to have a backup on whom we could rely to preserve any victory if Braxton went down? As this offseason showed, we'll need a competent backup to carry us forward whenever Braxton's senior campaign begins. I'd feel much better if that backup, either Barrett or Jones, had a year of experience under his belt, and this season is a perfect opportunity.
DEFENSIVE DEPTH CHART:
Defensive Line
Good news: other than the loss of Joel Hale (to the offensive line?!?) this outstanding crew is still intact. Better news: barring any early exits, the 2015 starting D line will lose only Michael Bennett (technically, senior Steve Miller is starting at Viper, but junior Noah Spence should be back to take his place soon). Don't expect any steps backward from this squad in the near future.
Linebackers
Ryan Shazier is gone, which is essentially equivalent to a full flush of the position. No one else in last year's corps was any good, but they'll have a chance to prove themselves anew under new co-DC Chris Ash. Fortunately, only one LB in the two-deep, captain Curtis Grant, will be gone next year, so expect this group to improve.
Defensive Backs
These guys sucked pretty bad last year, but their backups were even worse, and three of last year's starters (Bradley Roby, C. J. Barnett, Christian Bryant) are now gone. The good news is that 2015 will bring the departure of only Doran Grant, so these guys have another two years to channel their inner Silver Bullets.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Replacing a four-year kicker isn't easy, but Ohio State thinks they have an answer in freshman Sean Neurnberger. Again, he's a freshman, so look for him to improve over time. Also, last year's most undervalued Buckeye, P Cameron Johnston, is plenty young, so expect him to be an all-star by the time 2015 rolls around. Meanwhile, young speedsters Dontre Wilson and Jalin Marshall will be terrorizing oppenents' kicking and punting games for the foreseeable future.
BOTTOM LINE
The depth chart is notably light on senior leadership, even more so following the loss of Braxton. While it's tough to accept anything less than undefeated championship seasons at OSU, the thought of Braxton using another year to improve and get healthy and retaking the reins of an adversity-toughened 2015 squad sends chills down my spine. With Braxton's return, the 2015 Buckeyes could be the most talented and complete squad since 2006, or possibly of all time, if we can discover greatness among our stable of running backs and turn a corner in the secondary.
So grit your teeth, Buckeye Nation, and prepare for what should be an exciting 2014. Don't cry for Braxton or the Buckeyes. If Barrett turns out to be terrific, this team could still end up in Pasadena. If he experiences some growing pains, remember that the best is yet to come for Urban and the Bucks.
Wednesday, August 27, 2014
Week 1 - PLAYOFFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Welcome to the 2014-15 season edition of Let's Go Bucks! Now that D-1A football has entered the PLAYOFF ERA, the expert analyses of your four favorite football forecasters should be more exciting and less controversial than ever. Join us every week to learn in advance precisely how the SEC's top four teams will position themselves for a shot at the national championship.
Here are the week's four top matchups, based on what what a few coaches and writers think about the quality of teams that they've never seen play.
Texas A&M Aggies @ South Carolina Gamecocks
Draper: Sigh....SEC. SEC. These teams are ok, but they won't be as good as last year's installment. Manziel and Clowney would have made this an epic matchup, but I can't really think of anyone on either of these teams. Even though the Cocks generally weak in the early season, I'll give them the edge at home. The SEC defenses have been a shadow the past few years but A&M has just been terrible. Let's kick this season off with a little SEC fizzle. TAMU: 24--SoCar: 41
Hoying: Why do teams allow conference games to be scheduled for week 1? Exiting the offseason, a team's growing pains may hamper it even against a garbage-level opponent. Ask Michigan. Imagine having to find your footing against Sumlin's offense or Spurrier's defense...Both teams enter the season with new faces at quarterback, after the departures of Johnny Manziel and Connor Shaw (both to the Browns). The Cocks are missing our favorite Wolverine decapitator, Jadeveon Clowney, but they retain the advantage, seeing as how the Aggies were missing an entire defense last season and aren't likely to have instantly righted the ship. The Ol' Ball Coach knows offense, and without Johnny Clipboard to bail out the awful awful A&M defense, South Carolina should start their playoff push on a high note. TAMU: 20--SCar: 38
Schweinfurth: Well, this game officially kicks off the college football season. I really think this game will be a showcase of what the SEC will be all about this year: defense-dominated. Look, all of the "big name" SEC quarterbacks are gone and it's gonna show. So before we get into the whole "SEC is all about defense" conversation, just remember ALL OF THE QBS ARE NEW!!!! Oh yea, this game? South Carolina's gonna win. TAMU: 13--SCAR: 31
Seeberg: This is a battle of who-can-manage-to-still-function-after-losing-a-crapton-of-talent game. The Gamecocks are without Clowney and 4th string Browns quarterback Connor Shaw. Similarly, TAMU has lost 5th string Browns quarterback Johnny Money-Signing, Bird-Slinging Manziel (ok, I know he's actually the Browns' backup, but really, does it matter?). A&M also lost Mike Evans, and still has a lackluster D, so the cupboard is at least a lot less bare in Columbia. TAMU: 17--SCar: 34
Clemson Tigers @ Georgia Bulldogs
Draper: I remember last year when Clemson was a pretty good football team...and then this year they're...a team. UGA has no Aaron Murray, but Todd Gurley is a beast who, in my opinion, is the most likely non-QB Heisman contender. Last year, Clemson rode the backs of Watkins and Boyd to an explosive offense, but they're gone. Bulldogs start strong and wait until midseason to crap out. Clem: 17--UGA: 38
Hoying: Answer: Tajh Boyd, Sammy Watkins, Roderick McDowell, Martavis Bryant. Question: who are (1) the top four skill position players on the 2013 Clemson team, and (2) four players no longer playing for the Tigers? Yup, that buzzsaw that shredded through an overrated Georgia squad and a depleted-though-already-awful Buckeye defense has been de-toothed. Meanwhile the Gurleyest man in college football is all healed up and ready for revenge. The loss of Georgia QB Aaron Murray will hurt, but the wounds won't show in this mismatch. Hey Bulldog! Clem: 17--UGA: 31
Schweinfurth: Clemson lost their offense last year with Boyd and Watkins gone (I still have nightmares of Watkins catching screen passes). Georgia get's Todd Gurley back and he is a load. I really expect Gurley to literally carry the load for the Bulldogs all year and could be a darkhorse Heisman candidate. Clem: 10--UGA--24
Seeberg: Seemingly, Georgia has been on the precipice for quite some time. This year wouldn't seem to be the year they get over the hump as Aaron Murray- who appeared to be UGA's QB about as long as the rest of the world seemed to think Aaron Craft was the Buckeyes' point guard- is finally gone. However, assuming Todd Gurley can make it through at least one game healthy, he will see the ball almost as much as Georgia's quarterback. Meanwhile, Clemson is far from the offensive juggernaut that burned through much of their schedule last year. It's gonna be a good day, Tater. Clem: 13--UGA: 28
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Louisiana State Tigers
Draper: LSU is a nice consistent program that everyone's favorite grass-eating lovable doofus keeps at the forefront. The Badgers look to have a nice season in the wide open B1G West but they can't figure out who to start at QB. This could get ugly and start the SEC over B1G nonsense early. Wisconsin is not the Wisconsin of old, and LSU full of studs. Could get ugly early on the Bayou. Wisc: 13--LSU: 30
Hoying: Once again, our beloved conference gets a chance to make a B1G statement against an SEC opponent to kick off the season. If there's one team on which we can rely to carry the flag in a marquee out-of-conference showdown, it's the Badgers. Stop laughing. I mean it, cut it out! They could win! Really! Wisc: 10--LSU: 27
Schweinfurth: For once I want to see the B1G give a big, Johnny Football-esque finger to the SEC. Unfortunately, I don't think Wisconsin will be the team to do it. Yes, Melvin Gordon is a good player, but he was best with White in the backfield and running the fly sweep. This will be a good game but Wiscy falls just short. Wisc: 14--LSU: 17
Seeberg: Alright, let's be clear, I despise Wisconsin...darn near as much as TTUN. The Badgers became suddenly relevant in the two most glamorous college sports (football, men's basketball) in the late 90's and they have been insufferable ever since. Still, I picked them to get to the Final Four this past March, thus salvaging a rough bracket year, and it wouldn't be a stretch to see them come out of the oh-so-loaded B1G west (this realignment is just atrocious- post proving this point coming next week). Even further, I would still like to see them force-feed Les Miles some freshly fertilized grass. LSU may have trouble scoring with Mettenberger and their top 2 wideouts gone from a season ago. Unfortunately, LSU hasn't lost much from a solid D and are likely to stifle a Wisconsin team that has named Tanner McEvoy (man that is a boy-band sounding name if I've ever heard one) over previous starter Joel I-only-throw-to-Abbrederis Stave. If McEvoy has the goods, this may be a huge upset, particularly for ESPN after just launching the SEC Network. Sadly, I don't see that happening. Wisc: 13--LSU: 24
THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Navy Midshipmen
Draper: Oh Braxton, wherefore art thou Braxton. The Glass QB went down earlier than expected this year which has put the pundits on alert. You don't lose an athlete of Braxton's caliber (not to mention Carlos Hyde) and get better, but there is light at the end of the tunnel. This team is still full of talent and the schedule is total garbage. I feel that Ezekiel Elliot will tote the rock admirably and J. T. Barrett will step in just fine (the last 2 years saw a redshirt freshman win the Heisman so......... Navy is perhaps the worst team anyone can schedule in the 'preseason'. They run a gimmick offense and cutblock like crazy. That being said, OSU's defensive weakness was the passing game...and the Midshipmen can't pass. This should be a solid drubbing that allows JT to get his feet wet. The Bucks will be just fine this year. OSU: 48--Navy: 10
Hoying: After an awful end to a promising season, the Bucks are finally back and ready to see if a new face can fill the void left by the unfortunate departure of our best offensive player. Sophomore running back Ezekiel Elliott did average 8.7 ypc last year, but most of that was garbage time against garbage teams...what?...you want me to talk about the QB situation? Very well...regardless of what Braxton's mind-bogglingly stupid haters continue to aver, the Buckeyes will almost undoubtedly suffer a giant step backward at quarterback after the injury to arguably the greatest athlete ever to take snaps under center at Ohio State. Make no mistake, J. T. Barrett is ready to play football (and hopefully play school too, unlike backup Cardale Jones), and he'll get a nice soft test from a middling Midshipmen defense. But a freshman is a freshman, and a QB's first year under center is usually a rough one (see 2004 Troy Smith, 2008 Terrelle Pryor, 2011 Braxton Miller). Let's hope the senior receivers are finally ready to step up. On the other side of the ball, we won't learn much this week about the development of last year's sieve of a defense. Navy QB Keenan Reynolds can throw, I guess, but that's not really Navy's style. Expect big plays from the experienced and talented Buckeye D line, and look for indications that Chris Ash is smart enough to plan for misdirection plays. If not, expect Michigan to hang 40 on us again at season's end. OSU: 31--Navy: 16
Schweinfurth: For the record, I'm writing this while watching the previous OSU/Navy game. My goodness, STOP THE QB FOLLOW!!! But I digress. The Buckeyes have so many question marks coming into this season and an even bigger question mark at the QB position. There are weapons and skill all over the field for the Bucks and I am excited to see what Wilson, Elliot, and company can do. I expect a lot more passing but fewer big plays. I am very nervous about the defense. I mean, they can't get any worse than last year right? RIGHT?!? Navy will move the ball, that rushing attack is just too good, but I don't foresee may trips into the endzone. This one won't tell much about the "improved" pass defense but the Bucks should be able to get some young pups valuable experience. OSU: 38--Navy: 20
Seeberg: I hate to admit it, but I am somewhat concerned about this game. As pointed out above, Navy's old-school attack is a nightmare to plan for at any point in the season. Our D should be very stout up front, but the back seven? No Shazier, no Roby, no Barnett, no Bryant, that means lots of question marks. Obviously the offense suffered an enormous setback with Braxton's injury (2015 Heisman campaign already in full swing). The receivers are another big unknown, so I expect a game plan Woody Hayes would be proud of...except a lot of the runs will be around end instead of up the middle. I'll be high up in the Ravens *gag* stadium on the 50, hoping to see our new offensive line gel together and open up some holes for Elliot, Barrett and Co. It may not be pretty, but 1-0 is 1-0. OSU: 34--Navy: 20
Upset Special
Draper: Penn State over UCF (I know, weak)
Hoying: Appalachian State over Michigan
Schweinfurth: North Dakota St. over Iowa State
Seeberg: Georgia Southern over NC State
Here are the week's four top matchups, based on what what a few coaches and writers think about the quality of teams that they've never seen play.
Texas A&M Aggies @ South Carolina Gamecocks
Draper: Sigh....SEC. SEC. These teams are ok, but they won't be as good as last year's installment. Manziel and Clowney would have made this an epic matchup, but I can't really think of anyone on either of these teams. Even though the Cocks generally weak in the early season, I'll give them the edge at home. The SEC defenses have been a shadow the past few years but A&M has just been terrible. Let's kick this season off with a little SEC fizzle. TAMU: 24--SoCar: 41
Hoying: Why do teams allow conference games to be scheduled for week 1? Exiting the offseason, a team's growing pains may hamper it even against a garbage-level opponent. Ask Michigan. Imagine having to find your footing against Sumlin's offense or Spurrier's defense...Both teams enter the season with new faces at quarterback, after the departures of Johnny Manziel and Connor Shaw (both to the Browns). The Cocks are missing our favorite Wolverine decapitator, Jadeveon Clowney, but they retain the advantage, seeing as how the Aggies were missing an entire defense last season and aren't likely to have instantly righted the ship. The Ol' Ball Coach knows offense, and without Johnny Clipboard to bail out the awful awful A&M defense, South Carolina should start their playoff push on a high note. TAMU: 20--SCar: 38
Schweinfurth: Well, this game officially kicks off the college football season. I really think this game will be a showcase of what the SEC will be all about this year: defense-dominated. Look, all of the "big name" SEC quarterbacks are gone and it's gonna show. So before we get into the whole "SEC is all about defense" conversation, just remember ALL OF THE QBS ARE NEW!!!! Oh yea, this game? South Carolina's gonna win. TAMU: 13--SCAR: 31
Seeberg: This is a battle of who-can-manage-to-still-function-after-losing-a-crapton-of-talent game. The Gamecocks are without Clowney and 4th string Browns quarterback Connor Shaw. Similarly, TAMU has lost 5th string Browns quarterback Johnny Money-Signing, Bird-Slinging Manziel (ok, I know he's actually the Browns' backup, but really, does it matter?). A&M also lost Mike Evans, and still has a lackluster D, so the cupboard is at least a lot less bare in Columbia. TAMU: 17--SCar: 34
Clemson Tigers @ Georgia Bulldogs
Draper: I remember last year when Clemson was a pretty good football team...and then this year they're...a team. UGA has no Aaron Murray, but Todd Gurley is a beast who, in my opinion, is the most likely non-QB Heisman contender. Last year, Clemson rode the backs of Watkins and Boyd to an explosive offense, but they're gone. Bulldogs start strong and wait until midseason to crap out. Clem: 17--UGA: 38
Hoying: Answer: Tajh Boyd, Sammy Watkins, Roderick McDowell, Martavis Bryant. Question: who are (1) the top four skill position players on the 2013 Clemson team, and (2) four players no longer playing for the Tigers? Yup, that buzzsaw that shredded through an overrated Georgia squad and a depleted-though-already-awful Buckeye defense has been de-toothed. Meanwhile the Gurleyest man in college football is all healed up and ready for revenge. The loss of Georgia QB Aaron Murray will hurt, but the wounds won't show in this mismatch. Hey Bulldog! Clem: 17--UGA: 31
Schweinfurth: Clemson lost their offense last year with Boyd and Watkins gone (I still have nightmares of Watkins catching screen passes). Georgia get's Todd Gurley back and he is a load. I really expect Gurley to literally carry the load for the Bulldogs all year and could be a darkhorse Heisman candidate. Clem: 10--UGA--24
Seeberg: Seemingly, Georgia has been on the precipice for quite some time. This year wouldn't seem to be the year they get over the hump as Aaron Murray- who appeared to be UGA's QB about as long as the rest of the world seemed to think Aaron Craft was the Buckeyes' point guard- is finally gone. However, assuming Todd Gurley can make it through at least one game healthy, he will see the ball almost as much as Georgia's quarterback. Meanwhile, Clemson is far from the offensive juggernaut that burned through much of their schedule last year. It's gonna be a good day, Tater. Clem: 13--UGA: 28
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Louisiana State Tigers
Draper: LSU is a nice consistent program that everyone's favorite grass-eating lovable doofus keeps at the forefront. The Badgers look to have a nice season in the wide open B1G West but they can't figure out who to start at QB. This could get ugly and start the SEC over B1G nonsense early. Wisconsin is not the Wisconsin of old, and LSU full of studs. Could get ugly early on the Bayou. Wisc: 13--LSU: 30
Hoying: Once again, our beloved conference gets a chance to make a B1G statement against an SEC opponent to kick off the season. If there's one team on which we can rely to carry the flag in a marquee out-of-conference showdown, it's the Badgers. Stop laughing. I mean it, cut it out! They could win! Really! Wisc: 10--LSU: 27
Schweinfurth: For once I want to see the B1G give a big, Johnny Football-esque finger to the SEC. Unfortunately, I don't think Wisconsin will be the team to do it. Yes, Melvin Gordon is a good player, but he was best with White in the backfield and running the fly sweep. This will be a good game but Wiscy falls just short. Wisc: 14--LSU: 17
Seeberg: Alright, let's be clear, I despise Wisconsin...darn near as much as TTUN. The Badgers became suddenly relevant in the two most glamorous college sports (football, men's basketball) in the late 90's and they have been insufferable ever since. Still, I picked them to get to the Final Four this past March, thus salvaging a rough bracket year, and it wouldn't be a stretch to see them come out of the oh-so-loaded B1G west (this realignment is just atrocious- post proving this point coming next week). Even further, I would still like to see them force-feed Les Miles some freshly fertilized grass. LSU may have trouble scoring with Mettenberger and their top 2 wideouts gone from a season ago. Unfortunately, LSU hasn't lost much from a solid D and are likely to stifle a Wisconsin team that has named Tanner McEvoy (man that is a boy-band sounding name if I've ever heard one) over previous starter Joel I-only-throw-to-Abbrederis Stave. If McEvoy has the goods, this may be a huge upset, particularly for ESPN after just launching the SEC Network. Sadly, I don't see that happening. Wisc: 13--LSU: 24
THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Navy Midshipmen
Draper: Oh Braxton, wherefore art thou Braxton. The Glass QB went down earlier than expected this year which has put the pundits on alert. You don't lose an athlete of Braxton's caliber (not to mention Carlos Hyde) and get better, but there is light at the end of the tunnel. This team is still full of talent and the schedule is total garbage. I feel that Ezekiel Elliot will tote the rock admirably and J. T. Barrett will step in just fine (the last 2 years saw a redshirt freshman win the Heisman so......... Navy is perhaps the worst team anyone can schedule in the 'preseason'. They run a gimmick offense and cutblock like crazy. That being said, OSU's defensive weakness was the passing game...and the Midshipmen can't pass. This should be a solid drubbing that allows JT to get his feet wet. The Bucks will be just fine this year. OSU: 48--Navy: 10
Hoying: After an awful end to a promising season, the Bucks are finally back and ready to see if a new face can fill the void left by the unfortunate departure of our best offensive player. Sophomore running back Ezekiel Elliott did average 8.7 ypc last year, but most of that was garbage time against garbage teams...what?...you want me to talk about the QB situation? Very well...regardless of what Braxton's mind-bogglingly stupid haters continue to aver, the Buckeyes will almost undoubtedly suffer a giant step backward at quarterback after the injury to arguably the greatest athlete ever to take snaps under center at Ohio State. Make no mistake, J. T. Barrett is ready to play football (and hopefully play school too, unlike backup Cardale Jones), and he'll get a nice soft test from a middling Midshipmen defense. But a freshman is a freshman, and a QB's first year under center is usually a rough one (see 2004 Troy Smith, 2008 Terrelle Pryor, 2011 Braxton Miller). Let's hope the senior receivers are finally ready to step up. On the other side of the ball, we won't learn much this week about the development of last year's sieve of a defense. Navy QB Keenan Reynolds can throw, I guess, but that's not really Navy's style. Expect big plays from the experienced and talented Buckeye D line, and look for indications that Chris Ash is smart enough to plan for misdirection plays. If not, expect Michigan to hang 40 on us again at season's end. OSU: 31--Navy: 16
Schweinfurth: For the record, I'm writing this while watching the previous OSU/Navy game. My goodness, STOP THE QB FOLLOW!!! But I digress. The Buckeyes have so many question marks coming into this season and an even bigger question mark at the QB position. There are weapons and skill all over the field for the Bucks and I am excited to see what Wilson, Elliot, and company can do. I expect a lot more passing but fewer big plays. I am very nervous about the defense. I mean, they can't get any worse than last year right? RIGHT?!? Navy will move the ball, that rushing attack is just too good, but I don't foresee may trips into the endzone. This one won't tell much about the "improved" pass defense but the Bucks should be able to get some young pups valuable experience. OSU: 38--Navy: 20
Seeberg: I hate to admit it, but I am somewhat concerned about this game. As pointed out above, Navy's old-school attack is a nightmare to plan for at any point in the season. Our D should be very stout up front, but the back seven? No Shazier, no Roby, no Barnett, no Bryant, that means lots of question marks. Obviously the offense suffered an enormous setback with Braxton's injury (2015 Heisman campaign already in full swing). The receivers are another big unknown, so I expect a game plan Woody Hayes would be proud of...except a lot of the runs will be around end instead of up the middle. I'll be high up in the Ravens *gag* stadium on the 50, hoping to see our new offensive line gel together and open up some holes for Elliot, Barrett and Co. It may not be pretty, but 1-0 is 1-0. OSU: 34--Navy: 20
Upset Special
Draper: Penn State over UCF (I know, weak)
Hoying: Appalachian State over Michigan
Schweinfurth: North Dakota St. over Iowa State
Seeberg: Georgia Southern over NC State
Tuesday, December 31, 2013
BCS Bowl Picks
Final Regular Season Standings
1) Hoying 48-22 (1-14 upset)
2) Schweinfurth 46-24 (4-11 upset)
3) Draper 43-27 (3-12 upset)
4) Seeberg 5-7 (0-2 upset)
Bowl Prediction Records Through December 30
1) Hoying 12-7
2) Schweinfurth 9-10
2) Seeberg 9-10
4) Draper 7-12
Rose Bowl: Stanford Cardinal vs. Michigan State Spartans
Draper: This may be the most boring game of the bowl season. Two teams with similar schemes will just beat the crap out of each other. The loss of defensive leader Max Bullough is immense. The Spartans are a good team, but the strength is stopping the pass--not as important vs. the Cardinal. If Stanford watched the B1G Championship, they'll know to feed Gaffney and continue to slam the rock. MSU will hang for awhile, but Stanford pulls away late. Stan: 27--MSU: 17
Hoying: After a few years of "almost" under Mark Dantonio, the Spartans have finally taken their B1G step toward national relevance. Going into championship week, I didn't feel too good about Sparty's ability to compete in the Rose Bowl, but I saw a truly complete team crush my Buckeyes' hopes and dreams at Lucas Oil Stadium. Unfortunately, at the same time, Stanford was busy dismantling a very good Arizona State team for the second time. The Cardinal are basically a better version of Michigan State, a tough, physical team with super defense. The Spartans will be ready to play in this one, but the Connor Cook's success against Pitt Brown and C.J. Barnett won't translate into success against a tough Stanford secondary. Kevin Hogan will find just enough holes in the "no-fly zone" to lead the Cardinal to their second straight Rose Bowl victory. Stan: 24--MSU: 16
Seeberg: This one will be in a style that would make Woody proud. Lots of running, lots of physicality, not much of that thing where two things can go wrong, you know, passing. Michigan State has had the best defensive player in this game in Max Bullough, but his suspension is a big blow to MSU's strongest unit. Before his suspension I had MSU winning a nail-biter, 16-13 or something in that vicinity. Losing their defensive signal-caller, however, will prove too much for the Spartans to overcome. The tree prevails in a slugfest. Stan: 20--MSU: 13
Fiesta Bowl: UCF Knights vs. Baylor Bears
Draper: Both teams have had relatively charmed seasons, but Baylor has faced MUCH better competition. The Bears have scored on everyone they've faced and won fairly easily while the Knights have squeaked out a few late in the season by the skin of their teeth. This shouldn't be close. Brice Petty and Seastrunk should have their way. The American representative was really hoping for a better matchup. UCF: 24--Baylor: 44
Hoying: For a team in the awful awful AAC, UCF actually has a pretty decent resume, with a great road win over Penn State and a near victory over South Carolina. Unfortunately, they've been playing like absolute garbage down the stretch, limping to lifeless wins over terrible teams like USF, Memphis, and SMU. Meanwhile, Baylor shook off the spiders of the Oklahoma State blowout to dominate Texas on their way to their first Big 12 championship. You think the Bears won't be excited to play in this game? You think UCF can slow down the nation's top offense? You think they'll ever catch the guy who really killed Kennedy and Oswald? UCF: 20--Bay: 59
Seeberg: On paper, this game shouldn't be close. It won't be close on the field either. Blake Bortles is playing some darn good QB for UCF, arguably better than his conference foe Teddy Bridgewater (whom, it bears mentioning, he beat on Bridgewater's home field). Baylor's D, or extreme lack thereof, will allow UCF to hang around for a quarter or two, but in the end Bryce Petty and Co. will put the Knights away. UCF: 27--Bay: 52
Sugar Bowl: Oklahoma Sooners vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Draper: The only question is which Alabama team shows up--Will the dominant defense full of NFL draft picks impose their will or will we see a total 'we-don't-care' Tide that faced Utah in 2009 Sugar Bowl. If Bama plays with some pride, this game will be a blowout over a completely overmatched Sooner squad. The Sooners are lucky to be here after upsetting their rivals to end the season. Their big fanbase doesn't hurt either. Saban won't let this team relent as he's seen a Sugar Bowl collapse before. This one's done by halftime. OU: 10--Bama: 34
Hoying: Another year, another Oklahoma appearance in a BCS bowl. Big Game Bob has led the Sooners to the promised land at the end of 9 of the 16 BCS seasons. Unfortunately, they've struggled a bit in the last 10 years, losing 5 straight BCS bowls before a gimme against 8-4 Connecticut. But let's not pile on the hate and accusations (that's reserved for teams with 6 BCS wins). Miracle win against the Cowboys aside, the Sooners haven't really had a great season: they're still not settled at QB and they were demolished in their two most significant matchups (Texas and Baylor). Alabama has looked great, but there's a potential letdown factor after a heartbreaking loss on one of the more memorable plays in college football history. Coach Saban's hunger for victory is insatiable, and unless AJ McCarron wants his still-beating heart ripped from his chest and fed to the volcano, he'll spur the Tide on to a win. OU: 13--Ala: 24
Seeberg: So...we have Florida State against a team from Alabama in the national title game. All is right with the world, or is it? 'Bama's well-chronicled loss to Auburn almost transcended hyperbole as the most incredible way to lose a football game that has ever been conceived...if only all the band was out on the field. Oklahoma benefitted from a Big 12 that was markedly weaker than in recent years and was able to sneak into another BCS game courtesy of their voodoo-like influence over their in-state rivals, the other OSU. Alabama is superior in all three phrases with the possible exception of defending against returned field goals, but thankfully for the Tide this game will not be anywhere near close enough for another miracle to cost them a win. A.J. McCarron finishes his career with one final W. OU: 10--Ala: 35
Orange Bowl: Clemson Tigers vs. THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: If you like offense.... Will ANYONE get a stop? The Buckeyes are littered with injuries/scratches (but thankfully, Shazier, the only real defensive player, will be play for lots of money). This game is going to come down to: Is Clemson, gonna Clemson? Tajh Boyd and Sammy Watkins should have their way with the Buckeye defense, but let's not forget the Miller and Hyde should do the same to the Tiger defense. Mistakes will right the headlines. Miller CANNOT turn the ball over. The Buckeyes game plan should be to never get rattled and hold onto the ball at all costs. Boyd makes a few key mistakes as Buckeyenation gives the traditional homefield advantage. Just stay the course and the Bucks can steal a shootout. Clem: 48--OSU: 52
Hoying: For all you who hated the defense down the stretch, I have good news: it seems like none of them will be there for this game. No Roby, no Grant, no Bryant, no Spence. I'd be worried, but after watching the Silver Bullets give up 34 to Connor Cook and Michigan State I wasn't really counting on the D in this one. Fortunately, it appears the only thing that can stop Ohio State's rushing attack is Tom Herman's play calling. Just run Hyde until Clemson stops him, and if the game ends first, all the better. I'm really worried about this one, more than any other this year (including both Michigan teams) but in the end, the coaching differential between Urban and Dabo should make up for any trouble stopping Tajh Boyd and Sammy Watkins. Clem: 45--OSU: 49
Seeberg: I am absolutely, positively terrified to pick this game. It is a distinct possibility that the Buckeyes will need to win this game to save the B1G from the ignominious distinction of an 0fer in the bowl season. When combined with the MAC's dismal performance, the Midwest will suddenly be the national laughing stock of college football. This game hinges on exactly what went wrong in the two games against the teams from up north: play-calling. We have the ability to score 60 on Clemson without much resistance, but if we call nothing but behind-the-line passes and bombs with nothing in between, and take the ball out of Hyde's hands, we may be in trouble. On the defensive side of the ball, just sitting back against a turnover-prone Tajh Boyd and Clemson would be a HUGE mistake, and hopefully they take some cues from the Gamecocks who forced SIX turnovers in their season finale (five while the game was still in question) by bringing consistent pressure and not sitting 12 yards off of every wideout. I fear that we will sit off and allow Boyd to pick us apart, primarily due to the plethora of defensive starters who may miss the game. I actually fielded a call from Luke Fickell asking if I was available for his secondary in emergency situations (hey, I had a pick-six once, true story! So what if it was in middle school?). Sadly, my eligibility has expired, so Fickell will be forced to make due. It won't be pretty, but the D forces a couple of turnovers to offset the points given up, and Braxton and Hyde pound out a win in the fourth quarter. Clem: 38--OSU: 45
BCS National Championship: Florida State Seminoles vs. Auburn Tigers
Draper: Yes, the Noles schedule has been weak. Yes, the Tigers have some premier wins (albeit on miracle plays). I've watched a lot of FSU this year, and I don't see a glaring weakness on this team. The offense is a force behind Jameis and the best trio of wideouts in the country (Shaw, Greene, Benjamin), not to mention 2 great RBs and the Golden Cub at TE. The defense is better than most know which has led to the enormous margins of victory. Auburn has a fantastic running game but the defense is suspect. Also, I don't think Marshall's arm can defeat the Nole secondary. FSU will be the 2nd best defense the Tigers have faced--and the offense is MUCH better than Alabama. There will be no decided advantage in Pasadena for the crowd, but the Noles have been as good on the road as at home. The Tigers need that homefield bump for the miracles to occur. This game reminds me of last year with one team leading a charmed existence facing a juggernaut of a complete team...we know how that ended. FSU: 45--Aub: 31
Hoying: At first glance, this looks like a total mismatch. The Noles have been a veritable juggernaut on both sides of the ball, blasting through their schedule with ease. The Tigers won 2 games on miracle plays and were thoroughly outclassed by LSU. But, at the risk of dredging up ugly old arguments, who has Florida State played? The Miami team that just got obliterated by Louisville? The Maryland team that lost to Marshall? Bethune-Cookman? The Clemson win still looks nice, but if Ohio State gives them the West Virginia treatment on Friday night, Seminole fans might start getting nervous. Auburn has dealt with adversity, and they feature the nation's top rushing attack (sigh), but Jameis Winston is just too good and too consistent to let the Heisman jinx affect him. Congrats, Chief. FSU: 31--Aub: 30
Seeberg: With apologies to Clemson fans, this is easily the best test the Seminoles have seen all year. Auburn's ground game rarely turns the ball over and the Tigers (Auburn Tigers, that is) will not beat themselves and they will score TDs, not just settle for field goals. That said, barring a Troy Smith-esque Heisman jinx debacle (or a celebratory ankle sprain following a kickoff-return TD), Jameis Winston and FSU are more explosive on offense than Alabama and every bit as talented on D. Auburn scores 28 again, just as they did against 'Bama until the miracle FG-return, but FSU scores more, and Chief has his national title, albeit with the garnet and gold instead of the scarlet and gray. FSU: 45--Aub: 28
1) Hoying 48-22 (1-14 upset)
2) Schweinfurth 46-24 (4-11 upset)
3) Draper 43-27 (3-12 upset)
4) Seeberg 5-7 (0-2 upset)
Bowl Prediction Records Through December 30
1) Hoying 12-7
2) Schweinfurth 9-10
2) Seeberg 9-10
4) Draper 7-12
Rose Bowl: Stanford Cardinal vs. Michigan State Spartans
Draper: This may be the most boring game of the bowl season. Two teams with similar schemes will just beat the crap out of each other. The loss of defensive leader Max Bullough is immense. The Spartans are a good team, but the strength is stopping the pass--not as important vs. the Cardinal. If Stanford watched the B1G Championship, they'll know to feed Gaffney and continue to slam the rock. MSU will hang for awhile, but Stanford pulls away late. Stan: 27--MSU: 17
Hoying: After a few years of "almost" under Mark Dantonio, the Spartans have finally taken their B1G step toward national relevance. Going into championship week, I didn't feel too good about Sparty's ability to compete in the Rose Bowl, but I saw a truly complete team crush my Buckeyes' hopes and dreams at Lucas Oil Stadium. Unfortunately, at the same time, Stanford was busy dismantling a very good Arizona State team for the second time. The Cardinal are basically a better version of Michigan State, a tough, physical team with super defense. The Spartans will be ready to play in this one, but the Connor Cook's success against Pitt Brown and C.J. Barnett won't translate into success against a tough Stanford secondary. Kevin Hogan will find just enough holes in the "no-fly zone" to lead the Cardinal to their second straight Rose Bowl victory. Stan: 24--MSU: 16
Seeberg: This one will be in a style that would make Woody proud. Lots of running, lots of physicality, not much of that thing where two things can go wrong, you know, passing. Michigan State
Fiesta Bowl: UCF Knights vs. Baylor Bears
Draper: Both teams have had relatively charmed seasons, but Baylor has faced MUCH better competition. The Bears have scored on everyone they've faced and won fairly easily while the Knights have squeaked out a few late in the season by the skin of their teeth. This shouldn't be close. Brice Petty and Seastrunk should have their way. The American representative was really hoping for a better matchup. UCF: 24--Baylor: 44
Hoying: For a team in the awful awful AAC, UCF actually has a pretty decent resume, with a great road win over Penn State and a near victory over South Carolina. Unfortunately, they've been playing like absolute garbage down the stretch, limping to lifeless wins over terrible teams like USF, Memphis, and SMU. Meanwhile, Baylor shook off the spiders of the Oklahoma State blowout to dominate Texas on their way to their first Big 12 championship. You think the Bears won't be excited to play in this game? You think UCF can slow down the nation's top offense? You think they'll ever catch the guy who really killed Kennedy and Oswald? UCF: 20--Bay: 59
Seeberg: On paper, this game shouldn't be close. It won't be close on the field either. Blake Bortles is playing some darn good QB for UCF, arguably better than his conference foe Teddy Bridgewater (whom, it bears mentioning, he beat on Bridgewater's home field). Baylor's D, or extreme lack thereof, will allow UCF to hang around for a quarter or two, but in the end Bryce Petty and Co. will put the Knights away. UCF: 27--Bay: 52
Sugar Bowl: Oklahoma Sooners vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Draper: The only question is which Alabama team shows up--Will the dominant defense full of NFL draft picks impose their will or will we see a total 'we-don't-care' Tide that faced Utah in 2009 Sugar Bowl. If Bama plays with some pride, this game will be a blowout over a completely overmatched Sooner squad. The Sooners are lucky to be here after upsetting their rivals to end the season. Their big fanbase doesn't hurt either. Saban won't let this team relent as he's seen a Sugar Bowl collapse before. This one's done by halftime. OU: 10--Bama: 34
Hoying: Another year, another Oklahoma appearance in a BCS bowl. Big Game Bob has led the Sooners to the promised land at the end of 9 of the 16 BCS seasons. Unfortunately, they've struggled a bit in the last 10 years, losing 5 straight BCS bowls before a gimme against 8-4 Connecticut. But let's not pile on the hate and accusations (that's reserved for teams with 6 BCS wins). Miracle win against the Cowboys aside, the Sooners haven't really had a great season: they're still not settled at QB and they were demolished in their two most significant matchups (Texas and Baylor). Alabama has looked great, but there's a potential letdown factor after a heartbreaking loss on one of the more memorable plays in college football history. Coach Saban's hunger for victory is insatiable, and unless AJ McCarron wants his still-beating heart ripped from his chest and fed to the volcano, he'll spur the Tide on to a win. OU: 13--Ala: 24
Seeberg: So...we have Florida State against a team from Alabama in the national title game. All is right with the world, or is it? 'Bama's well-chronicled loss to Auburn almost transcended hyperbole as the most incredible way to lose a football game that has ever been conceived...if only all the band was out on the field. Oklahoma benefitted from a Big 12 that was markedly weaker than in recent years and was able to sneak into another BCS game courtesy of their voodoo-like influence over their in-state rivals, the other OSU. Alabama is superior in all three phrases with the possible exception of defending against returned field goals, but thankfully for the Tide this game will not be anywhere near close enough for another miracle to cost them a win. A.J. McCarron finishes his career with one final W. OU: 10--Ala: 35
Orange Bowl: Clemson Tigers vs. THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: If you like offense.... Will ANYONE get a stop? The Buckeyes are littered with injuries/scratches (but thankfully, Shazier, the only real defensive player, will be play for lots of money). This game is going to come down to: Is Clemson, gonna Clemson? Tajh Boyd and Sammy Watkins should have their way with the Buckeye defense, but let's not forget the Miller and Hyde should do the same to the Tiger defense. Mistakes will right the headlines. Miller CANNOT turn the ball over. The Buckeyes game plan should be to never get rattled and hold onto the ball at all costs. Boyd makes a few key mistakes as Buckeyenation gives the traditional homefield advantage. Just stay the course and the Bucks can steal a shootout. Clem: 48--OSU: 52
Hoying: For all you who hated the defense down the stretch, I have good news: it seems like none of them will be there for this game. No Roby, no Grant, no Bryant, no Spence. I'd be worried, but after watching the Silver Bullets give up 34 to Connor Cook and Michigan State I wasn't really counting on the D in this one. Fortunately, it appears the only thing that can stop Ohio State's rushing attack is Tom Herman's play calling. Just run Hyde until Clemson stops him, and if the game ends first, all the better. I'm really worried about this one, more than any other this year (including both Michigan teams) but in the end, the coaching differential between Urban and Dabo should make up for any trouble stopping Tajh Boyd and Sammy Watkins. Clem: 45--OSU: 49
Seeberg: I am absolutely, positively terrified to pick this game. It is a distinct possibility that the Buckeyes will need to win this game to save the B1G from the ignominious distinction of an 0fer in the bowl season. When combined with the MAC's dismal performance, the Midwest will suddenly be the national laughing stock of college football. This game hinges on exactly what went wrong in the two games against the teams from up north: play-calling. We have the ability to score 60 on Clemson without much resistance, but if we call nothing but behind-the-line passes and bombs with nothing in between, and take the ball out of Hyde's hands, we may be in trouble. On the defensive side of the ball, just sitting back against a turnover-prone Tajh Boyd and Clemson would be a HUGE mistake, and hopefully they take some cues from the Gamecocks who forced SIX turnovers in their season finale (five while the game was still in question) by bringing consistent pressure and not sitting 12 yards off of every wideout. I fear that we will sit off and allow Boyd to pick us apart, primarily due to the plethora of defensive starters who may miss the game. I actually fielded a call from Luke Fickell asking if I was available for his secondary in emergency situations (hey, I had a pick-six once, true story! So what if it was in middle school?). Sadly, my eligibility has expired, so Fickell will be forced to make due. It won't be pretty, but the D forces a couple of turnovers to offset the points given up, and Braxton and Hyde pound out a win in the fourth quarter. Clem: 38--OSU: 45
BCS National Championship: Florida State Seminoles vs. Auburn Tigers
Draper: Yes, the Noles schedule has been weak. Yes, the Tigers have some premier wins (albeit on miracle plays). I've watched a lot of FSU this year, and I don't see a glaring weakness on this team. The offense is a force behind Jameis and the best trio of wideouts in the country (Shaw, Greene, Benjamin), not to mention 2 great RBs and the Golden Cub at TE. The defense is better than most know which has led to the enormous margins of victory. Auburn has a fantastic running game but the defense is suspect. Also, I don't think Marshall's arm can defeat the Nole secondary. FSU will be the 2nd best defense the Tigers have faced--and the offense is MUCH better than Alabama. There will be no decided advantage in Pasadena for the crowd, but the Noles have been as good on the road as at home. The Tigers need that homefield bump for the miracles to occur. This game reminds me of last year with one team leading a charmed existence facing a juggernaut of a complete team...we know how that ended. FSU: 45--Aub: 31
Hoying: At first glance, this looks like a total mismatch. The Noles have been a veritable juggernaut on both sides of the ball, blasting through their schedule with ease. The Tigers won 2 games on miracle plays and were thoroughly outclassed by LSU. But, at the risk of dredging up ugly old arguments, who has Florida State played? The Miami team that just got obliterated by Louisville? The Maryland team that lost to Marshall? Bethune-Cookman? The Clemson win still looks nice, but if Ohio State gives them the West Virginia treatment on Friday night, Seminole fans might start getting nervous. Auburn has dealt with adversity, and they feature the nation's top rushing attack (sigh), but Jameis Winston is just too good and too consistent to let the Heisman jinx affect him. Congrats, Chief. FSU: 31--Aub: 30
Seeberg: With apologies to Clemson fans, this is easily the best test the Seminoles have seen all year. Auburn's ground game rarely turns the ball over and the Tigers (Auburn Tigers, that is) will not beat themselves and they will score TDs, not just settle for field goals. That said, barring a Troy Smith-esque Heisman jinx debacle (or a celebratory ankle sprain following a kickoff-return TD), Jameis Winston and FSU are more explosive on offense than Alabama and every bit as talented on D. Auburn scores 28 again, just as they did against 'Bama until the miracle FG-return, but FSU scores more, and Chief has his national title, albeit with the garnet and gold instead of the scarlet and gray. FSU: 45--Aub: 28
Wednesday, December 11, 2013
Grading the Bucks: B1G Championship: Michigan State "A Lost Opportunity"
Offense: C-
This game showed one thing that has been an issue for the past 3 weeks: Braxton can't throw. The passing game has been nonexistent of late and it's now biting the Buckeyes. The receivers dropped passes left and right, but most were off target or late. Braxton is a freakish athlete and ran like a beast, but the throws were not there. The TD to Philly Brown showed me problems in the passing game for Braxton (yes, the TD made me angry). On that pass (which was surprisingly well thrown), Braxton read the safety and threw into coverage....but he had Hyde and Wilson WIDE OPEN in the flat. So wide open they wouldn't have been touched yet...and he missed 2 people with no defenders within 15 yards. The rushing attack worked (regardless of what you hear). Carlos still ran like a beast...but why only 18 carries? see below. Last offense comment concerns the O-line. They were awful in the 1st quarter but became their monstrous selves throughout the rest of the game. Pulling guards often had to seek out someone to block as the holes opened were so large.
Defense: C
The defense wasn't why we lost this game. I'll say it again: the defense wasn't the reason we lost this game. Overall, the defense played pretty well. The mistakes came on stupid mistakes and big plays. Most of the problems came from the safety position. Pitt Brown and C.J. Barnett were just awful and continually got beat deep. This cannot happen from the safety position. Overall, the run D was fine until the game was more or less over. Shazier (aside from the stupid DPI on the first drive) was fantastic and Bosa was a manchild. Spence wasn't called often since the Spartans avoided his side and rolled away. The defense still has problems defensing throwback screens. Minimize the big plays and we'd be fine.
Special Teams: B-
Shazier blocks a punt which was great, but the kick catch interference was terrible. Another negative was the onside/pooch kick in the 4th was unbelievably close to being recovered by the Spartans. Only a stroke of good luck allowed the Buckeyes to prevent disaster, and the crowd had no clue. I'll credit Dantonio for the surprise attack, but the Buckeyes weren't ready.
Coaching: D-/F
And now we come to my biggest complaint: playcalling. Many blame Fickell and the defense, but I blame Herman and the horrendous playcalling. OSU is one of the most dynamic offenses in the country due to their fantastic run game. The Buckeyes seemed to fear the #1 MSU rush defense...and they torched it. However, even though the Buckeyes ran for 7.7 yards a carry, there was a unfounded dedication to the passing game...which wasn't working at all. The 3rd down conversion percentage was atrocious because almost every 3rd down was a pass. 3rd and 3? 4th and 2? Put the ball in the hands of your best player...here's a hint: It's not Braxton. Braxton is a freakish athlete that makes something out of nothing, but Carlos Hyde is the bread and butter. I've heard it said on the radio that this team cannot win without a balanced attack. I totally disagree. The backfield of the Bucks is special enough to pound it out and steamroll anyone (even MSU). Some say predictability is a prescription for disaster, but I say that the O-line, RB, and QB, are good enough to beat the defense even if they know what's coming. This was an absolute failure of preparation and knowledge of your team's skills. Watch the runs up the middle. They gained 5 a pop...even when MSU stuffed the box. Ride the beast of El Guapo and victory is assured.
Overall: C-
Don't listen to the talking heads. Michigan State's defense did not win this game/slow the OSU offense. The OSU offense slowed the OSU offense. I'll give credit to Connor Cook for an excellent game, a MSU defense that shut down the passing game, and to a Spartan coaching staff that didn't play scared, but I won't say that the Bucks couldn't beat the Spartan D. MSU gave up 0 100-yard rushers all year...until we played them...and we had 2. Maybe if OSU utilized their own strengths more efficiently, the outcome would be different. All in all, this was a lost opportunity.
This game showed one thing that has been an issue for the past 3 weeks: Braxton can't throw. The passing game has been nonexistent of late and it's now biting the Buckeyes. The receivers dropped passes left and right, but most were off target or late. Braxton is a freakish athlete and ran like a beast, but the throws were not there. The TD to Philly Brown showed me problems in the passing game for Braxton (yes, the TD made me angry). On that pass (which was surprisingly well thrown), Braxton read the safety and threw into coverage....but he had Hyde and Wilson WIDE OPEN in the flat. So wide open they wouldn't have been touched yet...and he missed 2 people with no defenders within 15 yards. The rushing attack worked (regardless of what you hear). Carlos still ran like a beast...but why only 18 carries? see below. Last offense comment concerns the O-line. They were awful in the 1st quarter but became their monstrous selves throughout the rest of the game. Pulling guards often had to seek out someone to block as the holes opened were so large.
Defense: C
The defense wasn't why we lost this game. I'll say it again: the defense wasn't the reason we lost this game. Overall, the defense played pretty well. The mistakes came on stupid mistakes and big plays. Most of the problems came from the safety position. Pitt Brown and C.J. Barnett were just awful and continually got beat deep. This cannot happen from the safety position. Overall, the run D was fine until the game was more or less over. Shazier (aside from the stupid DPI on the first drive) was fantastic and Bosa was a manchild. Spence wasn't called often since the Spartans avoided his side and rolled away. The defense still has problems defensing throwback screens. Minimize the big plays and we'd be fine.
Special Teams: B-
Shazier blocks a punt which was great, but the kick catch interference was terrible. Another negative was the onside/pooch kick in the 4th was unbelievably close to being recovered by the Spartans. Only a stroke of good luck allowed the Buckeyes to prevent disaster, and the crowd had no clue. I'll credit Dantonio for the surprise attack, but the Buckeyes weren't ready.
Coaching: D-/F
And now we come to my biggest complaint: playcalling. Many blame Fickell and the defense, but I blame Herman and the horrendous playcalling. OSU is one of the most dynamic offenses in the country due to their fantastic run game. The Buckeyes seemed to fear the #1 MSU rush defense...and they torched it. However, even though the Buckeyes ran for 7.7 yards a carry, there was a unfounded dedication to the passing game...which wasn't working at all. The 3rd down conversion percentage was atrocious because almost every 3rd down was a pass. 3rd and 3? 4th and 2? Put the ball in the hands of your best player...here's a hint: It's not Braxton. Braxton is a freakish athlete that makes something out of nothing, but Carlos Hyde is the bread and butter. I've heard it said on the radio that this team cannot win without a balanced attack. I totally disagree. The backfield of the Bucks is special enough to pound it out and steamroll anyone (even MSU). Some say predictability is a prescription for disaster, but I say that the O-line, RB, and QB, are good enough to beat the defense even if they know what's coming. This was an absolute failure of preparation and knowledge of your team's skills. Watch the runs up the middle. They gained 5 a pop...even when MSU stuffed the box. Ride the beast of El Guapo and victory is assured.
Overall: C-
Don't listen to the talking heads. Michigan State's defense did not win this game/slow the OSU offense. The OSU offense slowed the OSU offense. I'll give credit to Connor Cook for an excellent game, a MSU defense that shut down the passing game, and to a Spartan coaching staff that didn't play scared, but I won't say that the Bucks couldn't beat the Spartan D. MSU gave up 0 100-yard rushers all year...until we played them...and we had 2. Maybe if OSU utilized their own strengths more efficiently, the outcome would be different. All in all, this was a lost opportunity.
Thursday, December 05, 2013
Week 15: Conference Championships
Standings
1) Hoying 44-20 (1-13 upset)
2) Schweinfurth 43-21 (4-10 upset)
3) Draper 41-23 (3-11 upset)
4) Seeberg 3-3 (0-1 upset)
SEC: Missouri Tigers vs. Auburn Tigers
Draper: I remember 2006 when a team defeated their rival (as a top 5 matchup) and believed the season was over. They had reached the pinnacle, and the championship was a formality. After the game, I believe I watched one of the biggest flops in history as the Gators stomped the Buckeyes and stole the Title. The Bucks were slow, lazy, and unprepared. Seems like we are seeing a repeat here with Auburn. Missouri is one of those teams a coach has to hate planning for: they are good at everything, with no one thing to focus on. Auburn has been great (and lucky), but they've laid it all on the table while Mizzou is quietly waiting for their chance. While Auburn argues against OSU, the Tigers (Missouri brand) are prepping to slow down the Auburn rushing attack. James Franklin and crew steal the 'assumed' SEC championship and send Auburn from arguing about the title game to the Cotton Bowl. Mizzou: 31--Aub: 28
Hoying: On October 30, in our first BCS projections of the season, I predicted that Auburn would land in the Sugar Bowl, not as a replacement for Alabama in the Championship Game, but as the SEC champion. Two miracles against Georgia and Alabama later (propelling me to the top of the picks standings), I...am abandoning my projection. Why? I thought (correctly) that Nick Marshall's dual-threat capability would keep Auburn in the game against Bama long enough for a little rivalry magic to strike. However, across the SEC, Missouri's defense was busy throttling everyone's favorite waning Heisman contender, Johnny Football. Am I implying that Missouri has a better defense than Alabama? Maybe, but what I'm really saying is that I don't expect lightning to strike 3 times. Missouri has been solid in every phase of the game, from James Franklin's excellent quarterback play, to possibly the best stable of receivers in the game, to a fantastic rushing attack behind the one-two punch of Josey and Hansbrough, to the terrific defense led by the SEC's leading sack and TFL leader Michael Sam. Tigers win, jump up to #3 in the BCS (spoilers on two picks below), and bring their magical 2nd SEC season into the Sugar Bowl. Mizzou: 27--Aub: 20
Schweinfurth: Auburn should have "Livin' On A Prayer" as their fight song this year. Seriously? A miracle Hail Mary to end the Georgia game and then that finish last week. One would think that Gus Malzahn's magic has to run out at some point. I believe that will be this week. James Franklin and the Mizzou Tigers are flat rolling right now. I do believe the Missouri defense will give up some points (a good pass rush can be hurt by the misdirection offense). This will not be the SEC Championship games of old. Mizzou: 38--Aub: 35
Seeberg: At this time last week, I would have picked Missouri in this matchup without too much hesitation. James Franklin had returned and I figured they would blow TAMU out pretty handily. Not only was the game close, however, but Mizzou only mustered 28 points against a pretty lousy defense. That said, holding Johnny Sign-a-Football to just 21 points has been no small feat the last two seasons. Despite their offensive struggles, Franklin now has a week of gameplay under his belt since returning from injury and I still believe that the Tigers (Missouri Tigers, that is) have the more multi-dimensional offense which will, in the end, prove the difference. Mizzou: 31--Aub: 21
ACC: Duke Blue Devils vs. Florida State Seminoles
Draper: Duke is playing one of their best season's in history and no one is giving them a prayer...and they're right. The Noles have been nearly flawless this season stepping on the throat early and not letting up. The trio of receivers and stellar backfield are not even talked about with Famous Jameis leading the way. Oh yeah, the defense is pretty darn good too. This will be a traditional FSU game of 2013 with a 30+ point halftime lead and a cruise to Pasadena. FSU: 55--Duke: 13
Hoying: Florida State has been the most dominant team in college football this year. The Noles lead in scoring defense and sit second behind Baylor in scoring. Sure, FSU has had its share of cupcakes on the schedule, much like our beloved Buckeyes, but it's not like Duke went 10-2 against any tougher of a schedule. The Blue Devils are a nice story, but they've been squeaking through to the finish. Duke also got to duke it out against a Miami without Duke Johnson, while the Noles licked the Canes even with their best player intact. There's no reason this should be close. Unless...no, there's no reason. FSU: 45--Duke: 13
Schweinfurth: Duke has had a season to be remembered. The Blue Devils have risen from the ashes to become relevant in the ACC for the first time in, oh, forever. David Cutclife and the rest of the Dukies should be truly proud of this magical season. Unfortunately it is all about to come crashing down. Florida State, with or without Jamies Winston, is an absolute force on offense. If Clemson couldn't keep up with the 'Noles, Duke definitely cannot. Expect the Blue Devils to play with some emotion and hang on for part of the first quarter, but then it's all FSU, all night long. FSU: 52--Duke: 20
Seeberg: A recent statement from the Florida State Attorney's office stated that there may be a decision on the impending Jameis Winston issue before the weekend. In other words, the Florida State Attorney's office has a significantly better chance of thwarting FSU's season than the Duke defense does. Fourth-quarter comeback wins against the likes of Wake Forest (whose stadium, it bears mentioning, is roughly 25 miles from my apartment and is barely half-full for most games) make for a good story, but the Seminoles will write the last chapter much to the Blue Devils' dismay. FSU: 52--Duke: 17
Pac-12: Stanford Cardinal @ Arizona State Sun Devils
Draper: Rematch! But in a new place... How good is Stanford? They have good wins, but 2 losses (one good one bad). How good is ASU? Good wins and...2 losses (one good--Stanford, and one eh..). I could see this one going either way, but I'm going with the home team. Todd Graham has his team churning along without the hype of Stanford. Stanford assumes the title after beating Oregon, but Oregon showed their true nature over the last few weeks. Go Sparky! Stan: 20--ASU: 24
Hoying: Aaaagh, this is the worst kind of conference championship game. It's like a reboot of last year's Stanford-UCLA rematch, only with a twist: the team that won the head-to-head this time is less deserving of the title. True, Stanford already beat Arizona State earlier in the season, but the Cardinal has collected two Pac-12 losses since then against teams that ASU beat (Utah and USC). That being said, I don't see any reason why this game shouldn't play out much the same as the first matchup, a convincing Cardinal victory. Home field might make some difference, but not enough to keep Stanford from its first back-to-back Rose Bowls since 1971-72. Stan: 35--ASU: 27
Schweinfurth: I have to be honest when I say that I really have not watched much Pac-12 football this year. Arizona State has played well but has a loss to Stanford already this season. I don't see ASU not turning the ball over a couple times here (you can't put the ball up 50+ times a game and not have a pick or two). This game will be closer than the matchup early in the season but Stanford turns that turnover into points. Stan: 31--ASU: 24
Seeberg: Stanford has been very up and down the last month: dominating Oregon, then losing to USC. Annihilating Cal in a rivalry game, then struggling to put away Notre Dame. ASU has not lost since early October, but a couple of weeks before that they were handled pretty easily by- you guessed it- Stanford. The Sun Devils get this title game at home and are coming off a whipping of their in-state rivals who had just whipped Oregon (at least De'Anthony Thomas doesn't have to go to the Rose Bowl now, you know, since he wasn't that interested in going anyway). Arizona State only scores 28 again, but it's enough, unlike last time. Stan: 21--ASU: 28
Oklahoma Sooners @ Oklahoma State Cowboys
Draper: Bedlam is always a good time. OU has sputtered this whole year with all kinds of problems--especially questionable QB play. OSU stomped Baylor in their first 'Game of the Century (of the Year)' but it all is for naught without a big win at home in Bedlam. I love the Poke home field advantage and their poise in the last big game (Baylor) and I don't see a difference here. Rivalries make for interesting things, but the Pokes behind Clint Chelf look ready to go. The loss to WVU just doesn't make sense. The rebound continues on the way to the Fiesta. OU: 27--OSU: 38
Hoying: Shuffle, shuffle, do the quarterback shuffle. Both teams enter Bedlam with season-long quarterback issues. The Cowboys seem to have settled on senior slinger Clint Chelf, especially after a fantastic performance against Baylor, while the Sooners have rediscovered their love for freshman phenom Trevor Knight after Blake Bell bit badly getting beat by the Baylor Bears. This one looks like an easy pick for the Cowboys, but I'm not so sure. The Cowboys historically underperform against the Sooners, and I just have a feeling that with a 2nd Big 12 title in 3 years in their grasp, OSU will let the moment slip away. Big Game Bob comes through and the Bedlam series becomes even more lopsided. OU: 31--OSU: 28
Schweinfurth: If last week's rivalry games told us anything, it's that these games are flat unpredictable. Ultimately, the Cowboys have looked very good against some very good offenses this year, see Baylor. OSU likes to jam the receivers at the line and this throws the timing of these offenses way off. The Cowboy offense is very efficient and has played well all year. Oklahoma is good enough to keep it close but OSU is the better team. OU: 28--OSU: 38
Seeberg: After crushing Baylor on a national stage, OSU #2 (remember, they got crushed 33-7 by THE OSU in the Alamo Bowl several years ago) has faded back into relative obscurity, no doubt angrily. For those who may not recall, Oklahoma State missed out on a chance to play LSU for the national title a couple years back by mere thousandths of a point in the BCS. I don't think anyone argued that 'Bama was better, but they didn't even win their conference, and the Cowboys are feeling slighted yet again. Both teams have two weeks to prep, but the Oklahoma St. offense is the best of the four units that will be on the field: advantage- OSU #2. OSU: 38--OU: 24
Texas Longhorns @ Baylor Bears
Draper: Texas showed life in the midseason after blowing out OU, but then crashed back down to earth. Baylor was rocking and rolling until OSU and faceplanted. Last week showed a hangover as they struggled with TCU as well. What about this week? Both teams have something to play for as a loss for the Cowboys catapults the winner into the Fiesta Bowl. Baylor has had struggles of late, but they were on the road. The home stadium in Waco may not be unstoppable, but they feed off the energy. I like Baylor to return home and beat the Horns to wrap up no worse than second. Stir the rumor mill for Mack Brown. UT: 30--Baylor: 45
Hoying: I thought Texas had turned it around. I thought Mack Brown had righted the ship. Then Oklahoma State happened. We should've seen it coming after terrible terrible West Virginia took the Horns to 3OT. Yeah, yeah, you blew out a Texas Tech team that hasn't beaten a good team all year. Meanwhile, Baylor almost let the Cowboys beat them 2 weeks in a row, needing an INT on an ill-advised pass to hold off a bad TCU team. But now the Bears are back in their den. And they're ready to unleash the nation's top offense against a Texas defense that can't stop it. This one is going to be ugly. UT: 24--Baylor: 52
Schweinfurth: Texas has made a decent comeback on the Mack Brown redemption tour this year. Then the ship started to take on water yet again. The Longhorn's are getting Baylor at a very bad time. Baylor can seal a BCS berth with a win hear and continue the upswing they have been on. Unless Texas can shut down that Bear rushing attack, it's gonna be a long day...and it will be a loooong day. Baylor wins big. UT: 28--Baylor: 55
Seeberg: Similar to the SEC title game, this game felt like a no-brainer, this time for the Baylor Bears, until their near-debacle last week, giving up 38 points to a TCU squad that might be Gary Patterson's worst since he took over the program 13 seasons ago. Baylor should win, and should win easily, but Texas's D has largely played well the second half of the season. Texas hangs in for Mack Brown, but Bryce Petty makes enough plays to pull away late. UT: 21--Baylor: 37
B1G: Michigan State Spartans vs. THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: Sparty defense vs. Buckeye offense...man, I wish I had some Buckeye offense to plow my sidewalk. In the new look NFL/NCAA, defense may win championships, but a great defense cannot stop a great offense. Look at the TAMU/Bama game. Bama won in a shootout...because A&M defense sucked and the stout Tide D couldn't stop Johnny Football. Sparty will slow the Buckeyes somewhat, but you can't stop being bludgeoned repeated by Hyde and Miller. The rushing attack of the Buckeyes and the O-line will wear down the Spartans. On the other side of the ball, the Buckeye D was awful last week...but let's not forget about the walrus himself calling plays in East Lansing--Vrabs is coming for you Bollman! I think the Buckeye defense will be able to stop 'Dave' enough times to earn a hard fought win and a trip to Pasadena for the title. MSU: 20--OSU: 35
Hoying: After the Buckeyes watched Auburn's insane kick-six to topple Alabama, the team went wild for a few minutes. They knew their last uncontrollable obstacle to a national title been removed. Then Philly Brown stood up and reminded the men of the scarlet and gray that for that new #2 ranking to mean anything, it had to be cemented with one more victory. Can the Bucks take down a Sparty squad that appears to be headed to the Rose Bowl regardless of the game's outcome? Much is being made of Ohio State's meltdown on defense against the Wolverines. However, Michigan was playing out of its mind, showing glimpses of the powerful attack that steamrolled Notre Dame before tripping over its own shoelaces during the past month. The run D wasn't terrible; it was Gardner gashing us through the air that almost derailed the championship train. MSU's Connor Cook has been improving, but this is the guy who led the Spartan offense to 14 points against Purdue. Purdue. Roby, Barnett, Grant, and Brown should have little to fear this Saturday. On the other side of the ball, Carlos Hyde is still unstoppable, running for 226 yards against a pretty good Michigan run D. I don't think the Spartans are capable of shutting down both Hyde and Miller, and they might not get to either. I boldly predicted last year that as long as Braxton was on the field for the Buckeyes, they wouldn't lose another game. It's served me well so far. Buckeyes win the final Legends-Leaders battle and thus definitely secure a spot in the BCS National Championship. MSU: 16--OSU: 28
Schweinfurth: Michigan State has a defense, oh yes, Sparty has a defense. They are not the #1 rated defense in the nation for nothing. However, the Spartans have faced some spread offense this year and they have given up some points, see 28 points to both Nebraska and Indiana. Ohio State's offense is much, much, much better that those two teams. Who do you try and stop? Keep Miller from running the ball? He'll throw some quick screens or give to Hyde? Stop Hyde? Now you have Miller running wild and throwing. The Spartans want to talk "no fly zone" but they will be stressed vertically and horizontally by the physical Ohio State receivers. Michigan State's offense matches up well with the Silver Bullets. Yes, OSU gives up passing yards but they are very good against conventional power run teams (just look at the Wisconsin game). That Spartan defense will be enough to keep Michigan State in the game (and maybe even a fake kick or two) but there is a Walrus calling the plays on offense. That bucket of fish will run out quickly and Miller earns himself a trip to New York and the Bucks a trip to the second game in Pasadena. OSU: 34--MSU: 19
Seeberg: Last week, I had OSU winning by "only" three touchdowns and quite frankly, that high margin of victory made me a bit nervous. However, nobody (except the hilariously partial Desmond Howard) had TTUN with 2.5 yards separating them from a win with less than a minute to go. Devin Gardner looked like a flat-out stud, primarily because, for reasons unbeknownst to this fan sitting in the 58th row, he was put under minimal duress, even after hurting his leg in the 3rd quarter. Our D consistently rushed four and dropped seven, and was consistently picked apart as a result. The only conceivable reason for this decision is that TTUN's O-line has struggled mightily in recent weeks and Fickell, Vrabel & Co. must have believed they could get consistent pressure with just four rushers. They were wrong, and if our defense sits back like that again, it may give MSU enough of an opening to spring the upset. Gratefully, however, Connor Cook does not have the skill set of Devin Gardner, even when Gardner is limping around the pocket. MSU's D against OSU's O is perhaps the most intriguing matchup anywhere in college football all year. Braxton has not thrown the ball well in recent weeks, but I believe the offense will come out throwing short-to-intermediate passes to get Braxton in a rhythm and loosen up the D for Hyde to get rolling. The D attacks, the O largely maintains its form against a tough MSU D, and OSU is 25-0 under Urban. MSU: 17--OSU: 34
Upset Special
Draper: Cincinnati over Louisville
Hoying: Utah State over Fresno State
Schweinfurth: SMU over UCF
Seeberg: Army over Navy
1) Hoying 44-20 (1-13 upset)
2) Schweinfurth 43-21 (4-10 upset)
3) Draper 41-23 (3-11 upset)
4) Seeberg 3-3 (0-1 upset)
SEC: Missouri Tigers vs. Auburn Tigers
Draper: I remember 2006 when a team defeated their rival (as a top 5 matchup) and believed the season was over. They had reached the pinnacle, and the championship was a formality. After the game, I believe I watched one of the biggest flops in history as the Gators stomped the Buckeyes and stole the Title. The Bucks were slow, lazy, and unprepared. Seems like we are seeing a repeat here with Auburn. Missouri is one of those teams a coach has to hate planning for: they are good at everything, with no one thing to focus on. Auburn has been great (and lucky), but they've laid it all on the table while Mizzou is quietly waiting for their chance. While Auburn argues against OSU, the Tigers (Missouri brand) are prepping to slow down the Auburn rushing attack. James Franklin and crew steal the 'assumed' SEC championship and send Auburn from arguing about the title game to the Cotton Bowl. Mizzou: 31--Aub: 28
Hoying: On October 30, in our first BCS projections of the season, I predicted that Auburn would land in the Sugar Bowl, not as a replacement for Alabama in the Championship Game, but as the SEC champion. Two miracles against Georgia and Alabama later (propelling me to the top of the picks standings), I...am abandoning my projection. Why? I thought (correctly) that Nick Marshall's dual-threat capability would keep Auburn in the game against Bama long enough for a little rivalry magic to strike. However, across the SEC, Missouri's defense was busy throttling everyone's favorite waning Heisman contender, Johnny Football. Am I implying that Missouri has a better defense than Alabama? Maybe, but what I'm really saying is that I don't expect lightning to strike 3 times. Missouri has been solid in every phase of the game, from James Franklin's excellent quarterback play, to possibly the best stable of receivers in the game, to a fantastic rushing attack behind the one-two punch of Josey and Hansbrough, to the terrific defense led by the SEC's leading sack and TFL leader Michael Sam. Tigers win, jump up to #3 in the BCS (spoilers on two picks below), and bring their magical 2nd SEC season into the Sugar Bowl. Mizzou: 27--Aub: 20
Schweinfurth: Auburn should have "Livin' On A Prayer" as their fight song this year. Seriously? A miracle Hail Mary to end the Georgia game and then that finish last week. One would think that Gus Malzahn's magic has to run out at some point. I believe that will be this week. James Franklin and the Mizzou Tigers are flat rolling right now. I do believe the Missouri defense will give up some points (a good pass rush can be hurt by the misdirection offense). This will not be the SEC Championship games of old. Mizzou: 38--Aub: 35
Seeberg: At this time last week, I would have picked Missouri in this matchup without too much hesitation. James Franklin had returned and I figured they would blow TAMU out pretty handily. Not only was the game close, however, but Mizzou only mustered 28 points against a pretty lousy defense. That said, holding Johnny Sign-a-Football to just 21 points has been no small feat the last two seasons. Despite their offensive struggles, Franklin now has a week of gameplay under his belt since returning from injury and I still believe that the Tigers (Missouri Tigers, that is) have the more multi-dimensional offense which will, in the end, prove the difference. Mizzou: 31--Aub: 21
ACC: Duke Blue Devils vs. Florida State Seminoles
Draper: Duke is playing one of their best season's in history and no one is giving them a prayer...and they're right. The Noles have been nearly flawless this season stepping on the throat early and not letting up. The trio of receivers and stellar backfield are not even talked about with Famous Jameis leading the way. Oh yeah, the defense is pretty darn good too. This will be a traditional FSU game of 2013 with a 30+ point halftime lead and a cruise to Pasadena. FSU: 55--Duke: 13
Hoying: Florida State has been the most dominant team in college football this year. The Noles lead in scoring defense and sit second behind Baylor in scoring. Sure, FSU has had its share of cupcakes on the schedule, much like our beloved Buckeyes, but it's not like Duke went 10-2 against any tougher of a schedule. The Blue Devils are a nice story, but they've been squeaking through to the finish. Duke also got to duke it out against a Miami without Duke Johnson, while the Noles licked the Canes even with their best player intact. There's no reason this should be close. Unless...no, there's no reason. FSU: 45--Duke: 13
Schweinfurth: Duke has had a season to be remembered. The Blue Devils have risen from the ashes to become relevant in the ACC for the first time in, oh, forever. David Cutclife and the rest of the Dukies should be truly proud of this magical season. Unfortunately it is all about to come crashing down. Florida State, with or without Jamies Winston, is an absolute force on offense. If Clemson couldn't keep up with the 'Noles, Duke definitely cannot. Expect the Blue Devils to play with some emotion and hang on for part of the first quarter, but then it's all FSU, all night long. FSU: 52--Duke: 20
Seeberg: A recent statement from the Florida State Attorney's office stated that there may be a decision on the impending Jameis Winston issue before the weekend. In other words, the Florida State Attorney's office has a significantly better chance of thwarting FSU's season than the Duke defense does. Fourth-quarter comeback wins against the likes of Wake Forest (whose stadium, it bears mentioning, is roughly 25 miles from my apartment and is barely half-full for most games) make for a good story, but the Seminoles will write the last chapter much to the Blue Devils' dismay. FSU: 52--Duke: 17
Pac-12: Stanford Cardinal @ Arizona State Sun Devils
Draper: Rematch! But in a new place... How good is Stanford? They have good wins, but 2 losses (one good one bad). How good is ASU? Good wins and...2 losses (one good--Stanford, and one eh..). I could see this one going either way, but I'm going with the home team. Todd Graham has his team churning along without the hype of Stanford. Stanford assumes the title after beating Oregon, but Oregon showed their true nature over the last few weeks. Go Sparky! Stan: 20--ASU: 24
Hoying: Aaaagh, this is the worst kind of conference championship game. It's like a reboot of last year's Stanford-UCLA rematch, only with a twist: the team that won the head-to-head this time is less deserving of the title. True, Stanford already beat Arizona State earlier in the season, but the Cardinal has collected two Pac-12 losses since then against teams that ASU beat (Utah and USC). That being said, I don't see any reason why this game shouldn't play out much the same as the first matchup, a convincing Cardinal victory. Home field might make some difference, but not enough to keep Stanford from its first back-to-back Rose Bowls since 1971-72. Stan: 35--ASU: 27
Schweinfurth: I have to be honest when I say that I really have not watched much Pac-12 football this year. Arizona State has played well but has a loss to Stanford already this season. I don't see ASU not turning the ball over a couple times here (you can't put the ball up 50+ times a game and not have a pick or two). This game will be closer than the matchup early in the season but Stanford turns that turnover into points. Stan: 31--ASU: 24
Seeberg: Stanford has been very up and down the last month: dominating Oregon, then losing to USC. Annihilating Cal in a rivalry game, then struggling to put away Notre Dame. ASU has not lost since early October, but a couple of weeks before that they were handled pretty easily by- you guessed it- Stanford. The Sun Devils get this title game at home and are coming off a whipping of their in-state rivals who had just whipped Oregon (at least De'Anthony Thomas doesn't have to go to the Rose Bowl now, you know, since he wasn't that interested in going anyway). Arizona State only scores 28 again, but it's enough, unlike last time. Stan: 21--ASU: 28
Oklahoma Sooners @ Oklahoma State Cowboys
Draper: Bedlam is always a good time. OU has sputtered this whole year with all kinds of problems--especially questionable QB play. OSU stomped Baylor in their first 'Game of the Century (of the Year)' but it all is for naught without a big win at home in Bedlam. I love the Poke home field advantage and their poise in the last big game (Baylor) and I don't see a difference here. Rivalries make for interesting things, but the Pokes behind Clint Chelf look ready to go. The loss to WVU just doesn't make sense. The rebound continues on the way to the Fiesta. OU: 27--OSU: 38
Hoying: Shuffle, shuffle, do the quarterback shuffle. Both teams enter Bedlam with season-long quarterback issues. The Cowboys seem to have settled on senior slinger Clint Chelf, especially after a fantastic performance against Baylor, while the Sooners have rediscovered their love for freshman phenom Trevor Knight after Blake Bell bit badly getting beat by the Baylor Bears. This one looks like an easy pick for the Cowboys, but I'm not so sure. The Cowboys historically underperform against the Sooners, and I just have a feeling that with a 2nd Big 12 title in 3 years in their grasp, OSU will let the moment slip away. Big Game Bob comes through and the Bedlam series becomes even more lopsided. OU: 31--OSU: 28
Schweinfurth: If last week's rivalry games told us anything, it's that these games are flat unpredictable. Ultimately, the Cowboys have looked very good against some very good offenses this year, see Baylor. OSU likes to jam the receivers at the line and this throws the timing of these offenses way off. The Cowboy offense is very efficient and has played well all year. Oklahoma is good enough to keep it close but OSU is the better team. OU: 28--OSU: 38
Seeberg: After crushing Baylor on a national stage, OSU #2 (remember, they got crushed 33-7 by THE OSU in the Alamo Bowl several years ago) has faded back into relative obscurity, no doubt angrily. For those who may not recall, Oklahoma State missed out on a chance to play LSU for the national title a couple years back by mere thousandths of a point in the BCS. I don't think anyone argued that 'Bama was better, but they didn't even win their conference, and the Cowboys are feeling slighted yet again. Both teams have two weeks to prep, but the Oklahoma St. offense is the best of the four units that will be on the field: advantage- OSU #2. OSU: 38--OU: 24
Texas Longhorns @ Baylor Bears
Draper: Texas showed life in the midseason after blowing out OU, but then crashed back down to earth. Baylor was rocking and rolling until OSU and faceplanted. Last week showed a hangover as they struggled with TCU as well. What about this week? Both teams have something to play for as a loss for the Cowboys catapults the winner into the Fiesta Bowl. Baylor has had struggles of late, but they were on the road. The home stadium in Waco may not be unstoppable, but they feed off the energy. I like Baylor to return home and beat the Horns to wrap up no worse than second. Stir the rumor mill for Mack Brown. UT: 30--Baylor: 45
Hoying: I thought Texas had turned it around. I thought Mack Brown had righted the ship. Then Oklahoma State happened. We should've seen it coming after terrible terrible West Virginia took the Horns to 3OT. Yeah, yeah, you blew out a Texas Tech team that hasn't beaten a good team all year. Meanwhile, Baylor almost let the Cowboys beat them 2 weeks in a row, needing an INT on an ill-advised pass to hold off a bad TCU team. But now the Bears are back in their den. And they're ready to unleash the nation's top offense against a Texas defense that can't stop it. This one is going to be ugly. UT: 24--Baylor: 52
Schweinfurth: Texas has made a decent comeback on the Mack Brown redemption tour this year. Then the ship started to take on water yet again. The Longhorn's are getting Baylor at a very bad time. Baylor can seal a BCS berth with a win hear and continue the upswing they have been on. Unless Texas can shut down that Bear rushing attack, it's gonna be a long day...and it will be a loooong day. Baylor wins big. UT: 28--Baylor: 55
Seeberg: Similar to the SEC title game, this game felt like a no-brainer, this time for the Baylor Bears, until their near-debacle last week, giving up 38 points to a TCU squad that might be Gary Patterson's worst since he took over the program 13 seasons ago. Baylor should win, and should win easily, but Texas's D has largely played well the second half of the season. Texas hangs in for Mack Brown, but Bryce Petty makes enough plays to pull away late. UT: 21--Baylor: 37
B1G: Michigan State Spartans vs. THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: Sparty defense vs. Buckeye offense...man, I wish I had some Buckeye offense to plow my sidewalk. In the new look NFL/NCAA, defense may win championships, but a great defense cannot stop a great offense. Look at the TAMU/Bama game. Bama won in a shootout...because A&M defense sucked and the stout Tide D couldn't stop Johnny Football. Sparty will slow the Buckeyes somewhat, but you can't stop being bludgeoned repeated by Hyde and Miller. The rushing attack of the Buckeyes and the O-line will wear down the Spartans. On the other side of the ball, the Buckeye D was awful last week...but let's not forget about the walrus himself calling plays in East Lansing--Vrabs is coming for you Bollman! I think the Buckeye defense will be able to stop 'Dave' enough times to earn a hard fought win and a trip to Pasadena for the title. MSU: 20--OSU: 35
Hoying: After the Buckeyes watched Auburn's insane kick-six to topple Alabama, the team went wild for a few minutes. They knew their last uncontrollable obstacle to a national title been removed. Then Philly Brown stood up and reminded the men of the scarlet and gray that for that new #2 ranking to mean anything, it had to be cemented with one more victory. Can the Bucks take down a Sparty squad that appears to be headed to the Rose Bowl regardless of the game's outcome? Much is being made of Ohio State's meltdown on defense against the Wolverines. However, Michigan was playing out of its mind, showing glimpses of the powerful attack that steamrolled Notre Dame before tripping over its own shoelaces during the past month. The run D wasn't terrible; it was Gardner gashing us through the air that almost derailed the championship train. MSU's Connor Cook has been improving, but this is the guy who led the Spartan offense to 14 points against Purdue. Purdue. Roby, Barnett, Grant, and Brown should have little to fear this Saturday. On the other side of the ball, Carlos Hyde is still unstoppable, running for 226 yards against a pretty good Michigan run D. I don't think the Spartans are capable of shutting down both Hyde and Miller, and they might not get to either. I boldly predicted last year that as long as Braxton was on the field for the Buckeyes, they wouldn't lose another game. It's served me well so far. Buckeyes win the final Legends-Leaders battle and thus definitely secure a spot in the BCS National Championship. MSU: 16--OSU: 28
Schweinfurth: Michigan State has a defense, oh yes, Sparty has a defense. They are not the #1 rated defense in the nation for nothing. However, the Spartans have faced some spread offense this year and they have given up some points, see 28 points to both Nebraska and Indiana. Ohio State's offense is much, much, much better that those two teams. Who do you try and stop? Keep Miller from running the ball? He'll throw some quick screens or give to Hyde? Stop Hyde? Now you have Miller running wild and throwing. The Spartans want to talk "no fly zone" but they will be stressed vertically and horizontally by the physical Ohio State receivers. Michigan State's offense matches up well with the Silver Bullets. Yes, OSU gives up passing yards but they are very good against conventional power run teams (just look at the Wisconsin game). That Spartan defense will be enough to keep Michigan State in the game (and maybe even a fake kick or two) but there is a Walrus calling the plays on offense. That bucket of fish will run out quickly and Miller earns himself a trip to New York and the Bucks a trip to the second game in Pasadena. OSU: 34--MSU: 19
Seeberg: Last week, I had OSU winning by "only" three touchdowns and quite frankly, that high margin of victory made me a bit nervous. However, nobody (except the hilariously partial Desmond Howard) had TTUN with 2.5 yards separating them from a win with less than a minute to go. Devin Gardner looked like a flat-out stud, primarily because, for reasons unbeknownst to this fan sitting in the 58th row, he was put under minimal duress, even after hurting his leg in the 3rd quarter. Our D consistently rushed four and dropped seven, and was consistently picked apart as a result. The only conceivable reason for this decision is that TTUN's O-line has struggled mightily in recent weeks and Fickell, Vrabel & Co. must have believed they could get consistent pressure with just four rushers. They were wrong, and if our defense sits back like that again, it may give MSU enough of an opening to spring the upset. Gratefully, however, Connor Cook does not have the skill set of Devin Gardner, even when Gardner is limping around the pocket. MSU's D against OSU's O is perhaps the most intriguing matchup anywhere in college football all year. Braxton has not thrown the ball well in recent weeks, but I believe the offense will come out throwing short-to-intermediate passes to get Braxton in a rhythm and loosen up the D for Hyde to get rolling. The D attacks, the O largely maintains its form against a tough MSU D, and OSU is 25-0 under Urban. MSU: 17--OSU: 34
Upset Special
Draper: Cincinnati over Louisville
Hoying: Utah State over Fresno State
Schweinfurth: SMU over UCF
Seeberg: Army over Navy
Wednesday, December 04, 2013
Top 25, Rankings, Heisman Ballots--Week 15
Draper Top 25
1. Florida State
2. Ohio State
3. Auburn
4. Missouri
5. Alabama
6. Oklahoma State
7. Michigan State
8. South Carolina
9. Baylor
10. Stanford
11. Arizona State
12. UCF
13. Oregon
14. Clemson
15. NIU
16. LSU
17. Oklahoma
18. Duke
19. Wisconsin
20. Louisville
21. UCLA
22. Cincinnati
23. Texas
24. Fresno State
25. Georgia
Draper Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Jordan Lynch (QB--NIU)
3. Carlos Hyde (RB--OSU)
BCS Bowls
Orange: Alabama vs. Clemson
Sugar: Missouri vs. UCF
Fiesta: Oklahoma State vs. NIU
Rose: Arizona State vs. Michigan State
National Championship: Florida State vs. Ohio State
Hoying Top 25 (with movement from last rankings)
1. Florida State (up 1)
2. Ohio State (up 1)
3. Auburn (up 2)
4. South Carolina (up 2)
5. Stanford (up 2)
6. Oklahoma State (down 2)
7. Arizona State (up 1)
8. Baylor (up 1)
9. Alabama (down 8)
10. Missouri (up 2)
11. UCF (down 1)
12. Michigan State (up 1)
13. Northern Illinois (up 3)
14. LSU (up 4)
15. Oregon (up 5)
16. Clemson (down 5)
17. Oklahoma (down 2)
18. Notre Dame (down 1)
19. UCLA (up 3)
20. Georgia (up 6 [from unranked])
21. Wisconsin (down 7)
22. Texas (up 2)
23. Louisville (no change)
24. USC (down 5)
25. Duke (no change)
Fresno State drops out (down 5)
Hoying Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Carlos Hyde (RB--OSU)
3. Jordan Lynch (QB--NIU)
BCS Bowls
Orange: Alabama vs. Clemson
Sugar: Missouri vs. UCF
Fiesta: Baylor vs. Northern Illinois
Rose: Stanford vs. Michigan State
National Championship: Florida State vs. Ohio State
Schweinfurth Top 25
1. Florida State
2. Ohio State
3. Auburn
4. Alabama
5. Michigan State
6. Missouri
7. Baylor
8. Stanford
9. South Carolina
10. Arizona State
11. Oregon
12. Clemson
13. NIU
14. LSU
15. UCF
16. UCLA
17. Oklahoma
18. Louisville
19. Duke
20. Wisconsin
21. Texas
22. Texas A&M
23. Georgia
24. Cincinnati
25. USC
Schweinfurth Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Jordan Lynch (QB--NIU)
3. Braxton Miller (QB--OSU)
BCS Bowls
Orange: Alabama vs. UCF
Sugar: Missouri vs. Oklahoma State
Fiesta: Baylor vs. NIU
Rose: Michigan State vs. Stanford
National Championship: Florida State vs. Ohio State
Seeberg Top 25
1. Florida State
2. Ohio State
3. Auburn
4. Alabama
5. Oklahoma State
6. Missouri
7. South Carolina
8. Michigan State
9. Stanford
10. Baylor
11. Arizona State
12. Oregon
13. Clemson
14. Northern Illinois
15. LSU
16. UCLA
17. Wisconsin
18. UCF
19. Oklahoma
20. Louisville
21. Fresno State
22. Duke
23. Georgia
24. Iowa
25. Texas
Seeberg Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB- FSU)
2. Jordan Lynch (QB- NIU)
3. Andre Williams (RB- BC)
BCS Bowls
Orange: Clemson over Baylor
Sugar: Auburn over Northern Illinois
Fiesta: Oklahoma State over UCF
Rose: Alabama over Arizona State (sad day, only one B1G team in the BCS)
National Championship: Florida State over Ohio State
1. Florida State
2. Ohio State
3. Auburn
4. Missouri
5. Alabama
6. Oklahoma State
7. Michigan State
8. South Carolina
9. Baylor
10. Stanford
11. Arizona State
12. UCF
13. Oregon
14. Clemson
15. NIU
16. LSU
17. Oklahoma
18. Duke
19. Wisconsin
20. Louisville
21. UCLA
22. Cincinnati
23. Texas
24. Fresno State
25. Georgia
Draper Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Jordan Lynch (QB--NIU)
3. Carlos Hyde (RB--OSU)
BCS Bowls
Orange: Alabama vs. Clemson
Sugar: Missouri vs. UCF
Fiesta: Oklahoma State vs. NIU
Rose: Arizona State vs. Michigan State
National Championship: Florida State vs. Ohio State
Hoying Top 25 (with movement from last rankings)
1. Florida State (up 1)
2. Ohio State (up 1)
3. Auburn (up 2)
4. South Carolina (up 2)
5. Stanford (up 2)
6. Oklahoma State (down 2)
7. Arizona State (up 1)
8. Baylor (up 1)
9. Alabama (down 8)
10. Missouri (up 2)
11. UCF (down 1)
12. Michigan State (up 1)
13. Northern Illinois (up 3)
14. LSU (up 4)
15. Oregon (up 5)
16. Clemson (down 5)
17. Oklahoma (down 2)
18. Notre Dame (down 1)
19. UCLA (up 3)
20. Georgia (up 6 [from unranked])
21. Wisconsin (down 7)
22. Texas (up 2)
23. Louisville (no change)
24. USC (down 5)
25. Duke (no change)
Fresno State drops out (down 5)
Hoying Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Carlos Hyde (RB--OSU)
3. Jordan Lynch (QB--NIU)
BCS Bowls
Orange: Alabama vs. Clemson
Sugar: Missouri vs. UCF
Fiesta: Baylor vs. Northern Illinois
Rose: Stanford vs. Michigan State
National Championship: Florida State vs. Ohio State
Schweinfurth Top 25
1. Florida State
2. Ohio State
3. Auburn
4. Alabama
5. Michigan State
6. Missouri
7. Baylor
8. Stanford
9. South Carolina
10. Arizona State
11. Oregon
12. Clemson
13. NIU
14. LSU
15. UCF
16. UCLA
17. Oklahoma
18. Louisville
19. Duke
20. Wisconsin
21. Texas
22. Texas A&M
23. Georgia
24. Cincinnati
25. USC
Schweinfurth Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Jordan Lynch (QB--NIU)
3. Braxton Miller (QB--OSU)
BCS Bowls
Orange: Alabama vs. UCF
Sugar: Missouri vs. Oklahoma State
Fiesta: Baylor vs. NIU
Rose: Michigan State vs. Stanford
National Championship: Florida State vs. Ohio State
Seeberg Top 25
1. Florida State
2. Ohio State
3. Auburn
4. Alabama
5. Oklahoma State
6. Missouri
7. South Carolina
8. Michigan State
9. Stanford
10. Baylor
11. Arizona State
12. Oregon
13. Clemson
14. Northern Illinois
15. LSU
16. UCLA
17. Wisconsin
18. UCF
19. Oklahoma
20. Louisville
21. Fresno State
22. Duke
23. Georgia
24. Iowa
25. Texas
Seeberg Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB- FSU)
2. Jordan Lynch (QB- NIU)
3. Andre Williams (RB- BC)
BCS Bowls
Orange: Clemson over Baylor
Sugar: Auburn over Northern Illinois
Fiesta: Oklahoma State over UCF
Rose: Alabama over Arizona State (sad day, only one B1G team in the BCS)
National Championship: Florida State over Ohio State
Tuesday, December 03, 2013
Grading the Bucks--Week 14: M!ch!g@n
Offense: A-
The offense was certainly not the issue in the close win thanks to Mr. Miller and Mr. Hyde. This OSU ground game is fantastic (#2 in the nation behind Army). While we have the most dynamic backfield in the nation, the Buckeye offensive line needs more credit. They have been absolute studs frontlined by Jack Mewhort. The downgrade comes from the incessant need to bomb downfield and the lack of short passes. Braxton hasn't been right passing for the last few games. The running game has hidden the blemishes in the passing game, but it's apparent to anyone watching the games. That first pass attempt for Miller was an easy completion and he whiffed. I've seen him perform far better and expect more. Don't fall into the trap of excusing it for a better defense. Michigan's defense isn't much better than the rest of the trash the Buckeyes have faced.
Defense: D
This defense...woof. Let's be very clear: Michigan is not good. They have some weapons (Funyons and Gallon are studs), but Devin Gardner is not an elite QB. The secondary has some serious issue that will likely not be fixed without another year and some new personnel. The loss of Christian Bryant is more and more apparent with each passing game (Philly Brown had a horrible game). Ryan Shazier's performance is being overlooked as he's been an absolute beast, but the overall performance of the defense is not near where it needs to be. I was surprised with the lines lack of pressure throughout the game. I know Lewan will play at the next level, but the rest of the line is awful. I'm very nervous about the performance of this defense in a bowl game.
Special Teams: B-
No major hiccups so why the downgrade? I think we all know why. The fight was unacceptable as were the punches thrown. Was it 'fair' that 2 Bucks were thrown out and only 1 Wolverine when they 'started it'? No, but I just don't care. This cannot happen in any game; even when emotions are this high. Punches? Brawls? Beat them on the field. I liked what Cameron Johnston did as usual and the coverage teams were fine.
Coaching: C-
Back to the brawl. Marcus Hall was clearly flipping out. Where was a coach to settle him? Tough to be everywhere at once, but someone on the staff needed to identify the tantrum and calm the situation. Back to the game, Braxton needs confidence and he's not getting it on deep bombs. I believe we need more short dump off passes (screens/slants) so he trusts his arm a bit more. There's clearly no lack of confidence in his legs, but there always needs to be a double threat. Defensively, I was surprised there wasn't some adjustment to defend the passing game, but the return of Dileo gave the Wolverines 3 offensive threats that the Buckeyes couldn't cover. The weak offensive line suggested we needed to blitz more in the hopes Gardner was on his back before picking us apart.
Overall: C+
Beating your rival (even by a point) is always sweet. There are no moral victories. Again, Michigan is BAD and there are no excuses for that defensive performance. It appears the Buckeyes control their destiny for the Championship, but they need to step it up in preparation for an elite opponent (on both sides of the ball).
The offense was certainly not the issue in the close win thanks to Mr. Miller and Mr. Hyde. This OSU ground game is fantastic (#2 in the nation behind Army). While we have the most dynamic backfield in the nation, the Buckeye offensive line needs more credit. They have been absolute studs frontlined by Jack Mewhort. The downgrade comes from the incessant need to bomb downfield and the lack of short passes. Braxton hasn't been right passing for the last few games. The running game has hidden the blemishes in the passing game, but it's apparent to anyone watching the games. That first pass attempt for Miller was an easy completion and he whiffed. I've seen him perform far better and expect more. Don't fall into the trap of excusing it for a better defense. Michigan's defense isn't much better than the rest of the trash the Buckeyes have faced.
Defense: D
This defense...woof. Let's be very clear: Michigan is not good. They have some weapons (Funyons and Gallon are studs), but Devin Gardner is not an elite QB. The secondary has some serious issue that will likely not be fixed without another year and some new personnel. The loss of Christian Bryant is more and more apparent with each passing game (Philly Brown had a horrible game). Ryan Shazier's performance is being overlooked as he's been an absolute beast, but the overall performance of the defense is not near where it needs to be. I was surprised with the lines lack of pressure throughout the game. I know Lewan will play at the next level, but the rest of the line is awful. I'm very nervous about the performance of this defense in a bowl game.
Special Teams: B-
No major hiccups so why the downgrade? I think we all know why. The fight was unacceptable as were the punches thrown. Was it 'fair' that 2 Bucks were thrown out and only 1 Wolverine when they 'started it'? No, but I just don't care. This cannot happen in any game; even when emotions are this high. Punches? Brawls? Beat them on the field. I liked what Cameron Johnston did as usual and the coverage teams were fine.
Coaching: C-
Back to the brawl. Marcus Hall was clearly flipping out. Where was a coach to settle him? Tough to be everywhere at once, but someone on the staff needed to identify the tantrum and calm the situation. Back to the game, Braxton needs confidence and he's not getting it on deep bombs. I believe we need more short dump off passes (screens/slants) so he trusts his arm a bit more. There's clearly no lack of confidence in his legs, but there always needs to be a double threat. Defensively, I was surprised there wasn't some adjustment to defend the passing game, but the return of Dileo gave the Wolverines 3 offensive threats that the Buckeyes couldn't cover. The weak offensive line suggested we needed to blitz more in the hopes Gardner was on his back before picking us apart.
Overall: C+
Beating your rival (even by a point) is always sweet. There are no moral victories. Again, Michigan is BAD and there are no excuses for that defensive performance. It appears the Buckeyes control their destiny for the Championship, but they need to step it up in preparation for an elite opponent (on both sides of the ball).
Sunday, December 01, 2013
Another Terrific Week of Football, Another Fake Controversy
Let's begin by just reflecting on what a wonderfully bizarre day of football yesterday was. Rivalry games are special even without exciting finishes, but when college football's two greatest rivalries lead to two of the best last-minute thrill rides of the season, America gets a solid reminder of why college football is, without a doubt, better than the NFL.
NFL players don't sit crying in the tunnel after a triumph over their most hated, heavily favored opponent slips from their grasp. NFL games don't end with home underdogs sending their offense out on a point-after attempt when the outcome is triumph or defeat of the highest order, with no middle ground. NFL games don't come to a conclusion with the greatest coach in the game getting outfoxed on a special teams play that no one in the stadium saw coming but the upstart opposing coach his eleven men on the field. Plays like this are rare in college football as well, but what's commonplace at the college level, and what is missing from the NFL, is the level of total dedication displayed by every member of those Buckeye, Wolverine, Tide, and Tiger players. They understood that the stakes of their games yesterday could not be higher, not because of any championship implications, but because a loss to your bitter rival consumes your soul for the next 364 days, or if you're a senior, forever.
NFL bashing aside, let's turn our focus to the implications of yesterday's clashes of the titans. On October 20th, the day the BCS rankings were released, the Buckeyes looked to be in a pretty dark place. Sure, they were 6-0 and still in the hunt for a B1G title and possibly more, but they were ranked #4 of 8 undefeated BCS conference teams, and there was no guarantee that any of the 4 lower teams wouldn't jump them during their quest for #2. Shortly before the rankings were released, I wrote a piece assuring Buckeye Nation (and Bear Nation and Hurricane Nation etc.) that there was nothing to fear; the BCS rankings are always muddled in October but they almost always sort themselves out to the two deserving teams by season's end. Sure enough, 6 of the 8 undefeated BCS teams lost, leaving the path open to a neat and tidy matchup of the only two unbeatens. This was why the BCS was developed: to ensure that if there were two undefeated teams that wouldn't get to play each other because of existing bowl tie-ins, they'd get a chance to have it out on the field to determine who the real national champion was.
During the 15 years of the BCS, this has only occurred 4 times (1999, 2002, 2005, 2010). Among the years of multiple-BCS-undefeateds controversy (2004, 2009), and lesser squabbles among 1-loss teams (1998, 2000, 2001, 2003, 2006, 2008, 2011, 2012) or two-loss teams (2007), these 4 matchups were the opportunities for the BCS to pat itself on the back for a job well done. No controversy, no arguments, no disputing who the real national champion was once the bowl games were played.
So the BCS has a chance to get the correct result in its last hurrah, right? That's what I thought after Auburn's unconventional kick return against Alabama. But imagine my surprise when I woke up to see the most bizarre comments spewed all over my Twitter feed and the Worldwide Leader's website. They boiled down to some version of "Well, Michigan State will probably beat Ohio State and end this controversy anyway."
Huh?
Regardless of whether Sparty will or won't win on Saturday (I don't think they will, come back later this week for our picks), what is this controversy of which people speak, and why does a Michigan State win resolve it? A little deeper digging revealed that the dispute was whether an undefeated Ohio State or a 1-loss Auburn should go to the BCS National Championship to face Florida State.
What?
Before we have that debate, it's important to note all the assumptions implicit in such a farce, and how totally without merit they are.
Assumption #1: Florida State obviously deserves to be #1 (assuming a win over Duke).
Counter: Why? Let's take a look at who's been #1 when the 2 vs. 3 arguments have reared their ugly heads.
1998: #1 Tennessee - only undefeated BCS team
1999: No 2 vs. 3 dispute
2000: #1 Oklahoma - only undefeated BCS team
2001: #1 Miami - only undefeated BCS team
2002: No 2 vs. 3 dispute
2003: #1, #2, and #3 all in dispute
2004: #1 USC - won share of 2003 title, ranked #1 preseason and never fell from that spot
2005: No 2 vs. 3 dispute
2006: #1 Ohio State - only undefeated BCS team
2007: #1 Ohio State - only 1-loss or fewer BCS team
2008: #1, #2, and #3 all in dispute
2009: No real 2 vs. 3 dispute (sorry Cincinnati)
2010: No 2 vs. 3 dispute
2011: #1 LSU - only undefeated BCS team
2012: #1 Notre Dame - only undefeated BCS team
So we see that when there's a dispute over who should be #2, the only time the conflict doesn't extend to the #1 team as well is when the #1 team has had fewer losses than any other BCS team. Except 2004. That season had a few wrinkles pertinent to this analysis.* USC, Oklahoma, and Auburn all finished undefeated. USC got the nod for the Orange Bowl because USC was fresh off an AP-championship season and spent the season at #1 wire-to-wire.
Given what we observe from the history of the BCS, why does Florida State get a free pass at #1? They're not alone at 12-0: Ohio State is right there with them. They weren't preseason #1; they were preseason #12, far behind #2 Ohio State. Maybe they're getting the benefit of the doubt from their prior BCS history:
Florida State:
1998 L vs. Tennessee
1999 W vs. Virginia Tech (National Champions)
2000 L vs. Oklahoma
2002 L vs. Georgia
2003 L vs. Miami
2005 L vs. Penn State
2012 W vs. Northern Illinois
Ohio State:
1998 W vs. Texas A&M
2002 W vs. Miami (National Champions)
2003 W vs. Kansas State
2005 W vs. Notre Dame
2006 L vs. Florida
2007 L vs. LSU
2008 L vs. Texas
2009 W vs. Oregon
2010 W vs. Arkansas
Well...no help here, unless people are really impressed by that win over a MAC team. The pundits must be focusing on what Florida State has done this season only (good for them).
Let's take a look at each team's strength of schedule.
Florida State opponents' records: 61-60
Ohio State opponents' records: 62-59
Uh...hmm...that doesn't appear to help matters. Maybe if we look at wins over teams with winning records.
Florida State: @Clemson (10-2), vs. Miami (9-3), @Boston College (7-5), vs. Maryland (7-5)
Ohio State: vs. Wisconsin (9-3), vs. Iowa (8-4), @Michigan (7-5), vs. Penn State (7-5), vs. San Diego State (7-5), vs. Buffalo (8-4)
Erm...no answers there either, particularly when you consider that Ohio State faces Michigan State (11-1) in their final game while Florida State faces Duke (10-2), and NO ONE is suggesting that the Bucks have any hope of jumping the Noles after next weekend.
Let's try margin of victory.
Florida State: +28, +55, +48, +14, +63, +37, +32, +27, +56, +56, +66, +30. Average: 42.2
Ohio State: +20, +35, +18, +76, +7, +10, +10, +49, +56, +25, +28, +1. Average: 23.5
Mystery solved. If you want to be untouchable at #1, beat your mediocre-to-good opponents by more than your fellow undefeated competitor.
Assumption #2: It's ok for a 1-loss BCS conference team to finish ahead of an undefeated BCS conference team.
Counter: Show me the precedent. In 15 years of the BCS we've had at least 1 BCS conference team finish undefeated 12 times. WITHOUT EXCEPTION, these teams have finished ahead of every team with a loss, even though during all 12 of these seasons, there has been at least one 1-loss BCS team available. Obviously this doesn't mean that a 1-loss team finishing higher can't happen, but it does create quite the suffocating presumption to overcome.
Assumption #3: The SEC champion is without question the most deserving 1-loss team available.
Counter: I agree that the body of work of the SEC champion will be stronger than any other 1-loss team. However, the gap is not particularly wide, especially if Missouri beats Auburn. Missouri would have a great win over Auburn, and some good wins over Georgia, Vanderbilt, and Texas A&M. Is this really that much better than Oklahoma State's potential win list of Baylor, Oklahoma, and Texas? Or Michigan State's potential win list of Ohio State, Iowa, Nebraska, and Minnesota? Again, I think Missouri would have the better claim, but to state that such a comparison would be less controversial than the false one brewing between Ohio State and Auburn/Missouri makes no sense unless you accept implicitly that...
Assumption #4: The SEC is light-years ahead of any other conference.
Counter: This is the argument you're going to hear pounded into your skull for the next 7 days. You've heard it ever since Urban Meyer's Florida beat Jim Tressel's Ohio State, and the rabid southerners and other such partisan hacks aren't going to abandon it now. Obviously there's no denying that an SEC member has won the last 7 BCS national championships and 9 BCS titles out of 15 total. But this doesn't necessarily say anything about the league itself; it could be far and away the best, or it could be just top-heavy. To know more, we have to look at the SEC's performance top-to-bottom against other conferences.
In the BCS Era
SEC vs. Pac-12 in regular season: 12-12
SEC vs. Pac-12 in bowl games: 1-0
SEC vs. Big 12 in regular season: 6-11
SEC vs. Big 12 in bowl games: 22-8
SEC vs. ACC in regular season: 47-37
SEC vs. ACC in bowl games: 17-10
SEC vs. Big Ten in regular season: 8-5
SEC vs. Big Ten in bowl games: 21-19
SEC vs. Big East in regular season: 16-18
SEC vs. Big East in bowl games: 4-9
Good? Yes. Dominant? Not so clear. Other than dominating the Big 12 in bowl games and the ACC in general, and getting beat by the Big East of all conferences, I'm not sure what we're supposed to take away from this, particularly when we consider that all of the SEC's bowl games take place within the conference's geographic footprint, far from the territory of the Big Ten, the Big 12, or where the Big East was located during the BCS era.
On a side note, which team will leave the BCS era with the most BCS bowl wins? It's a tie between USC (who's not going to a BCS bowl this year) and Ohio State, whose last BCS win came at the hands of...Arkansas from the SEC, making Ohio State 1-2 against the SEC in BCS games. And yes, the Sugar Bowl win was vacated because of the tattoo scandal, but does anyone really think Ohio State's rule-breaking behavior led to them gaining a competitive advantage in that game? Put another way, if Ohio State players weren't getting the occasional free tattoo, would they still have beaten Arkansas to cap a 12-1 season?
On another side note, one of the teams tied for most BCS losses is Florida State, but you won't hear about their BCS struggles this week, even though the Noles have never beaten a Big Ten or an SEC team in a BCS bowl (0-3).
Whoopty-Doo! What does it all mean, Basil?
The assumptions necessary to even have a debate about Ohio State falling below #2 are so flawed that the debate itself is nonsensical. Only the most blinded, unabashed SEC homer would dare to make a case to leave an undefeated Ohio State out of the national championship game at this point. While SEC teams have made many trips to many BCS bowls and Alabama, Florida, and LSU have had great success there, Auburn cannot rely on past history (2 BCS appearances in 15 years), nor can Missouri (0 BCS appearances in 15 years) to rush past an Ohio State team (or, for that matter, a Florida State team) that played a big-boy schedule, in a big-boy conference, and did not lose a game. The Bucks and the Noles have earned their way to the title game before, and with two victories on Saturday, they'll do it again, much to the wailing and gnashing of teeth of all in SECSPN country.
*Remember the 2004 season mentioned earlier? Oklahoma went to the title game ahead of undefeated Auburn because they were the preseason #2 and had also occupied the #2 spot all season long, even though Oklahoma had lost the BCS Championship game to an SEC team, LSU, at the end of the previous season. In other words, an SEC team winning the prior season's national championship did not give the league the benefit of the doubt needed for an undefeated Auburn to jump an undefeated Oklahoma. How much more ridiculous would it be for a 1-loss team to jump an undefeated preseason #2 Ohio State?
In case you're still wavering about the merits of Auburn or Missouri vis-a-vis Florida State and Ohio State, here are your nails in the coffin (check out Massey Ratings' Game Graph Connecting Path to do this yourself).
Florida State beat Clemson
who beat Georgia
who beat LSU
who beat Auburn.
Ohio State beat Penn State
who beat Syracuse
who beat Maryland
who beat West Virginia
who beat Oklahoma State
who beat Mississippi State
who beat Mississippi
who beat LSU
who beat Auburn.
Florida State beat Clemson
who beat Georgia
who beat South Carolina
who beat Missouri.
Ohio State beat Wisconsin
who beat BYU
who beat Georgia Tech
who beat Duke
who beat Miami
who beat Florida
who beat Tennessee
who beat South Carolina
who beat Missouri.
"Big deal," you might say, "you can do this with almost any two teams if you want."
Almost.
Not Ohio State or Florida State.
Because they haven't lost.
On to 13-0 and a place in the final BCS National Championship in Pasadena.
NFL players don't sit crying in the tunnel after a triumph over their most hated, heavily favored opponent slips from their grasp. NFL games don't end with home underdogs sending their offense out on a point-after attempt when the outcome is triumph or defeat of the highest order, with no middle ground. NFL games don't come to a conclusion with the greatest coach in the game getting outfoxed on a special teams play that no one in the stadium saw coming but the upstart opposing coach his eleven men on the field. Plays like this are rare in college football as well, but what's commonplace at the college level, and what is missing from the NFL, is the level of total dedication displayed by every member of those Buckeye, Wolverine, Tide, and Tiger players. They understood that the stakes of their games yesterday could not be higher, not because of any championship implications, but because a loss to your bitter rival consumes your soul for the next 364 days, or if you're a senior, forever.
NFL bashing aside, let's turn our focus to the implications of yesterday's clashes of the titans. On October 20th, the day the BCS rankings were released, the Buckeyes looked to be in a pretty dark place. Sure, they were 6-0 and still in the hunt for a B1G title and possibly more, but they were ranked #4 of 8 undefeated BCS conference teams, and there was no guarantee that any of the 4 lower teams wouldn't jump them during their quest for #2. Shortly before the rankings were released, I wrote a piece assuring Buckeye Nation (and Bear Nation and Hurricane Nation etc.) that there was nothing to fear; the BCS rankings are always muddled in October but they almost always sort themselves out to the two deserving teams by season's end. Sure enough, 6 of the 8 undefeated BCS teams lost, leaving the path open to a neat and tidy matchup of the only two unbeatens. This was why the BCS was developed: to ensure that if there were two undefeated teams that wouldn't get to play each other because of existing bowl tie-ins, they'd get a chance to have it out on the field to determine who the real national champion was.
During the 15 years of the BCS, this has only occurred 4 times (1999, 2002, 2005, 2010). Among the years of multiple-BCS-undefeateds controversy (2004, 2009), and lesser squabbles among 1-loss teams (1998, 2000, 2001, 2003, 2006, 2008, 2011, 2012) or two-loss teams (2007), these 4 matchups were the opportunities for the BCS to pat itself on the back for a job well done. No controversy, no arguments, no disputing who the real national champion was once the bowl games were played.
So the BCS has a chance to get the correct result in its last hurrah, right? That's what I thought after Auburn's unconventional kick return against Alabama. But imagine my surprise when I woke up to see the most bizarre comments spewed all over my Twitter feed and the Worldwide Leader's website. They boiled down to some version of "Well, Michigan State will probably beat Ohio State and end this controversy anyway."
Huh?
Regardless of whether Sparty will or won't win on Saturday (I don't think they will, come back later this week for our picks), what is this controversy of which people speak, and why does a Michigan State win resolve it? A little deeper digging revealed that the dispute was whether an undefeated Ohio State or a 1-loss Auburn should go to the BCS National Championship to face Florida State.
What?
Before we have that debate, it's important to note all the assumptions implicit in such a farce, and how totally without merit they are.
Assumption #1: Florida State obviously deserves to be #1 (assuming a win over Duke).
Counter: Why? Let's take a look at who's been #1 when the 2 vs. 3 arguments have reared their ugly heads.
1998: #1 Tennessee - only undefeated BCS team
1999: No 2 vs. 3 dispute
2000: #1 Oklahoma - only undefeated BCS team
2001: #1 Miami - only undefeated BCS team
2002: No 2 vs. 3 dispute
2003: #1, #2, and #3 all in dispute
2004: #1 USC - won share of 2003 title, ranked #1 preseason and never fell from that spot
2005: No 2 vs. 3 dispute
2006: #1 Ohio State - only undefeated BCS team
2007: #1 Ohio State - only 1-loss or fewer BCS team
2008: #1, #2, and #3 all in dispute
2009: No real 2 vs. 3 dispute (sorry Cincinnati)
2010: No 2 vs. 3 dispute
2011: #1 LSU - only undefeated BCS team
2012: #1 Notre Dame - only undefeated BCS team
So we see that when there's a dispute over who should be #2, the only time the conflict doesn't extend to the #1 team as well is when the #1 team has had fewer losses than any other BCS team. Except 2004. That season had a few wrinkles pertinent to this analysis.* USC, Oklahoma, and Auburn all finished undefeated. USC got the nod for the Orange Bowl because USC was fresh off an AP-championship season and spent the season at #1 wire-to-wire.
Given what we observe from the history of the BCS, why does Florida State get a free pass at #1? They're not alone at 12-0: Ohio State is right there with them. They weren't preseason #1; they were preseason #12, far behind #2 Ohio State. Maybe they're getting the benefit of the doubt from their prior BCS history:
Florida State:
1998 L vs. Tennessee
1999 W vs. Virginia Tech (National Champions)
2000 L vs. Oklahoma
2002 L vs. Georgia
2003 L vs. Miami
2005 L vs. Penn State
2012 W vs. Northern Illinois
Ohio State:
1998 W vs. Texas A&M
2002 W vs. Miami (National Champions)
2003 W vs. Kansas State
2005 W vs. Notre Dame
2006 L vs. Florida
2007 L vs. LSU
2008 L vs. Texas
2009 W vs. Oregon
2010 W vs. Arkansas
Well...no help here, unless people are really impressed by that win over a MAC team. The pundits must be focusing on what Florida State has done this season only (good for them).
Let's take a look at each team's strength of schedule.
Florida State opponents' records: 61-60
Ohio State opponents' records: 62-59
Uh...hmm...that doesn't appear to help matters. Maybe if we look at wins over teams with winning records.
Florida State: @Clemson (10-2), vs. Miami (9-3), @Boston College (7-5), vs. Maryland (7-5)
Ohio State: vs. Wisconsin (9-3), vs. Iowa (8-4), @Michigan (7-5), vs. Penn State (7-5), vs. San Diego State (7-5), vs. Buffalo (8-4)
Erm...no answers there either, particularly when you consider that Ohio State faces Michigan State (11-1) in their final game while Florida State faces Duke (10-2), and NO ONE is suggesting that the Bucks have any hope of jumping the Noles after next weekend.
Let's try margin of victory.
Florida State: +28, +55, +48, +14, +63, +37, +32, +27, +56, +56, +66, +30. Average: 42.2
Ohio State: +20, +35, +18, +76, +7, +10, +10, +49, +56, +25, +28, +1. Average: 23.5
Mystery solved. If you want to be untouchable at #1, beat your mediocre-to-good opponents by more than your fellow undefeated competitor.
Assumption #2: It's ok for a 1-loss BCS conference team to finish ahead of an undefeated BCS conference team.
Counter: Show me the precedent. In 15 years of the BCS we've had at least 1 BCS conference team finish undefeated 12 times. WITHOUT EXCEPTION, these teams have finished ahead of every team with a loss, even though during all 12 of these seasons, there has been at least one 1-loss BCS team available. Obviously this doesn't mean that a 1-loss team finishing higher can't happen, but it does create quite the suffocating presumption to overcome.
Assumption #3: The SEC champion is without question the most deserving 1-loss team available.
Counter: I agree that the body of work of the SEC champion will be stronger than any other 1-loss team. However, the gap is not particularly wide, especially if Missouri beats Auburn. Missouri would have a great win over Auburn, and some good wins over Georgia, Vanderbilt, and Texas A&M. Is this really that much better than Oklahoma State's potential win list of Baylor, Oklahoma, and Texas? Or Michigan State's potential win list of Ohio State, Iowa, Nebraska, and Minnesota? Again, I think Missouri would have the better claim, but to state that such a comparison would be less controversial than the false one brewing between Ohio State and Auburn/Missouri makes no sense unless you accept implicitly that...
Assumption #4: The SEC is light-years ahead of any other conference.
Counter: This is the argument you're going to hear pounded into your skull for the next 7 days. You've heard it ever since Urban Meyer's Florida beat Jim Tressel's Ohio State, and the rabid southerners and other such partisan hacks aren't going to abandon it now. Obviously there's no denying that an SEC member has won the last 7 BCS national championships and 9 BCS titles out of 15 total. But this doesn't necessarily say anything about the league itself; it could be far and away the best, or it could be just top-heavy. To know more, we have to look at the SEC's performance top-to-bottom against other conferences.
In the BCS Era
SEC vs. Pac-12 in regular season: 12-12
SEC vs. Pac-12 in bowl games: 1-0
SEC vs. Big 12 in regular season: 6-11
SEC vs. Big 12 in bowl games: 22-8
SEC vs. ACC in regular season: 47-37
SEC vs. ACC in bowl games: 17-10
SEC vs. Big Ten in regular season: 8-5
SEC vs. Big Ten in bowl games: 21-19
SEC vs. Big East in regular season: 16-18
SEC vs. Big East in bowl games: 4-9
Good? Yes. Dominant? Not so clear. Other than dominating the Big 12 in bowl games and the ACC in general, and getting beat by the Big East of all conferences, I'm not sure what we're supposed to take away from this, particularly when we consider that all of the SEC's bowl games take place within the conference's geographic footprint, far from the territory of the Big Ten, the Big 12, or where the Big East was located during the BCS era.
On a side note, which team will leave the BCS era with the most BCS bowl wins? It's a tie between USC (who's not going to a BCS bowl this year) and Ohio State, whose last BCS win came at the hands of...Arkansas from the SEC, making Ohio State 1-2 against the SEC in BCS games. And yes, the Sugar Bowl win was vacated because of the tattoo scandal, but does anyone really think Ohio State's rule-breaking behavior led to them gaining a competitive advantage in that game? Put another way, if Ohio State players weren't getting the occasional free tattoo, would they still have beaten Arkansas to cap a 12-1 season?
On another side note, one of the teams tied for most BCS losses is Florida State, but you won't hear about their BCS struggles this week, even though the Noles have never beaten a Big Ten or an SEC team in a BCS bowl (0-3).
Whoopty-Doo! What does it all mean, Basil?
The assumptions necessary to even have a debate about Ohio State falling below #2 are so flawed that the debate itself is nonsensical. Only the most blinded, unabashed SEC homer would dare to make a case to leave an undefeated Ohio State out of the national championship game at this point. While SEC teams have made many trips to many BCS bowls and Alabama, Florida, and LSU have had great success there, Auburn cannot rely on past history (2 BCS appearances in 15 years), nor can Missouri (0 BCS appearances in 15 years) to rush past an Ohio State team (or, for that matter, a Florida State team) that played a big-boy schedule, in a big-boy conference, and did not lose a game. The Bucks and the Noles have earned their way to the title game before, and with two victories on Saturday, they'll do it again, much to the wailing and gnashing of teeth of all in SECSPN country.
*Remember the 2004 season mentioned earlier? Oklahoma went to the title game ahead of undefeated Auburn because they were the preseason #2 and had also occupied the #2 spot all season long, even though Oklahoma had lost the BCS Championship game to an SEC team, LSU, at the end of the previous season. In other words, an SEC team winning the prior season's national championship did not give the league the benefit of the doubt needed for an undefeated Auburn to jump an undefeated Oklahoma. How much more ridiculous would it be for a 1-loss team to jump an undefeated preseason #2 Ohio State?
In case you're still wavering about the merits of Auburn or Missouri vis-a-vis Florida State and Ohio State, here are your nails in the coffin (check out Massey Ratings' Game Graph Connecting Path to do this yourself).
Florida State beat Clemson
who beat Georgia
who beat LSU
who beat Auburn.
Ohio State beat Penn State
who beat Syracuse
who beat Maryland
who beat West Virginia
who beat Oklahoma State
who beat Mississippi State
who beat Mississippi
who beat LSU
who beat Auburn.
Florida State beat Clemson
who beat Georgia
who beat South Carolina
who beat Missouri.
Ohio State beat Wisconsin
who beat BYU
who beat Georgia Tech
who beat Duke
who beat Miami
who beat Florida
who beat Tennessee
who beat South Carolina
who beat Missouri.
"Big deal," you might say, "you can do this with almost any two teams if you want."
Almost.
Not Ohio State or Florida State.
Because they haven't lost.
On to 13-0 and a place in the final BCS National Championship in Pasadena.
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