Week 1: Stroud. Stroud. Let It All Out.

Buckeye football is back in a B1G way after another crushing defeat in the Playoff. And it has all of those great season opening features...a road game...at a conference opponent...on a Thursday...well, Buckeye football is back at least, with no double false starts this time. And the funny thing is, a Thursday kickoff actually helps avoid overstimulation on a surprisingly crowded field of ranked week 1 Saturday matchups. Yes, the preseason rankings don't matter, but don't be surprised if these games have meaningful consequences down the stretch this season.

Penn State Nittany Lions @ Wisconsin Badgers

Draper: A nice B1G match to start the 2021 season.  How much do I know about these teams?  Well, nothing really.  Neither had seasons to remember last year, and I think both will finish in the top 5 of the conference this year (well behind #1).  Bucky's at home so I'll roll with them in Camp Randall.  Mertz needs to play smart ball and let the defense work.  PSU: 17 -- UW: 24
Hoying: Don't let the W-L record fool you. Penn State didn't really suck last year. True, their 4 wins all came against awful teams (hi, Michigan), but they Franklined away the season opener to Indiana and actually played Ohio State tough...once the game was over. Wisconsin was another strange case. Remember when QB Graham Mertz was going to replace Justin Fields as the B1G's premier passer after last year's season opener? Playing Illinois: good for what ails ya. Then more global and severe problems started ailing the Badgers and they played all of 5 more conference games down the stretch (*clears throat* *looks down*). You could flash any two numbers before my eyes and I wouldn't be surprised to see them as the score of this game, with either team coming out on top. Wisconsin seems to be a bit stronger at all the key positions (except WR, Jahan Dotson is the real deal) and I think they'll slightly have the edge in this one. PSU: 20--UW: 27
Schweinfurth: To be honest, I'm not sure what each team really has. Both return starting QBs and both teams had fairly disappointing seasons last year. The Lions do have home run threat Dotson back and that should be enough to keep it close. Camp Randall and the Badger fans will most likely be the difference this year. This should be a fun one to watch. PSU: 21--UW: 24
Seeberg:  The B1G is pulling out ALL the stops this season!  If Bucky and Herky stumble early, the power dynamic will be even more laughably tilted towards the east in the conference.  Fortunately for the west, both west teams get to host these surprisingly entertaining week one matchups.  If enough Badger fans can stay upright *hiccup* to make it to Jump Around, they should outlast a very run-of-the-mill PSU team this year.  PSU: 16--UW: 27

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Miami Hurricanes

Draper: Miami is this year's early season sacrificial top 10 team to the altar of Saban.  I'll give the Tide credit for grabbing these (neutral site) games against 'top' opponents every year.  One would think that losing an entire NFL team (essentially) would be problematic, but the difference between the haves and havenots is enormous.  Miami's only hope is for D'Eriq King to be super special and vault to the top of the early season Heisman rankings.  I'm just not seeing it.  Death....taxes...and Bama.  Bama: 48 -- Miami: 27
Hoying: 2017 Florida State. 2016 USC. 2015 Wisconsin. 2012 Michigan. 2009 Virginia Tech. For the last decade-plus, Alabama has been playing big time opponents in season openers at stupid neutral sites, and the Tide have been blasting them all. Nobody prepares his team for a season's start like Nick Saban, and I don't expect anything to change this year. I guess if you're going to challenge Alabama this season, the first game might be your best option as the Tide are breaking in new starters across their offense (and a new offensive coordinator). But you need to be at least a Florida / Texas A&M level to make the Tide sweat. Miami is still nowhere near that point. Bama: 34--Miami: 17
Schweinfurth: This is not 80s/90s/early 2000s Miami. They are an okay ACC program, but they don't stack up to the Alabama Death Machine. I don't think there is much to break down here. Bama by a million. Bama: 45 --Miami: 13
Seeberg:  Football is back in its truest form!  Fans and mayhem will ensue!  Not here, however.  The Tide were an absolute juggernaut last season, even by their standards.  COVID or not they were winning it all in 2020.  Will they take a step back?  Sure.  However, it would have to be a Herculean stride backwards to pull them even with the once-powerful Hurricanes.  To steal the other Steven's line, Bama by a million.  Bama: 42 -- Miami: 17

 

Indiana Hoosiers @ Iowa Hawkeyes

Draper: I'm calling my shot that Indiana is going to be....overrated this year.  They have a phenomenal Penix at QB, but the injuries will be a problem.  How do the Hoosiers deal with expectations? I'm not holding my breath.  Honestly, they have some nice talent, but some key receivers have left for the league AND the 'underdog' status is gone.  Iowa has a chance to be sneaky in the B1G West.  One can count on Ferentz to finishing in the 8-9 win territory most years.  I think he inks another 10 year contract after knocking IU off the pedestal.  IU: 20 -- Iowa: 24
Hoying: How much of last year was Indiana being good, and how much was the Big Ten East being awful? Sure, they were able to put a late scare into the Buckeyes, but that was basically their Super Bowl last year (and Indiana plays the Buckeyes weirdly close a lot). The Penix-to-Fryfogle connection that exposed the Buckeye back 7 in a big way will be back to tear up defenses again, but there's still no rushing attack. And that's a problem against a stout defensive team like the Hawkeyes. The Hoosiers were able to win one knock-down ugly no-offense game last year (in Camp Randall, no less), but I'm not sure if lightning can strike again. My general strategy in 2021 will be to fade teams that were weirdly good in 2020 (ESPECIALLY Group of 5 teams, see below), and there's no better place to start than in Bloomington. IU: 20--Iowa: 21
Schweinfurth: Indiana may be the second best team in the B1G East. Let that set in. Tom Allen's attacking defense gave the Buckeyes (and other teams) fits. The Hoosiers can score in a hurry, but the issue may be the time the defense is on the field. Iowa is going to grind this game down (think Wisconsin light). I'm not sold on Iowa, but their style lends to a close game. Indiana wins a close one (I can't believe I picked the Hoosiers). 

IU: 31--Iowa:20
Seeberg:  Multiple REALLY good matchups for week one in the B1G.  My how times have changed.  Gone are the days when middling Big Ten teams (read:  usually Indiana, until recently) scheduled a random MAC team and hoped it wasn't that once-a-decade MAC team that goes 11-1 with a crazy talented team (I see you Ben Roethlisberger at Miami) or a decent roster with an excellent up-and-coming coach (think Urban at BGSU).  In any event, there's a new word surrounding the Hoosier basketball football program in 2021:  Expectations.  Iowa, meanwhile, returns a lot of talent at LB, TE (duh) and RB and is probably the second-best team in the west, which means when Wisconsin inevitably lays their one egg per season the Hawkeyes just might slip to Indy.  I think both squads are good, and nobody has any idea what to make of last season, so I simply have to go with the program I trust more.  Enjoy your 38th B1G Coach of the Year trophy Kirk.  IU: 24 --  Iowa: 31

Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns @ Texas Longhorns

Draper: Can Sark bring Texas back? I don't know, but they should beat a team called the Rajun' Cajuns.  UL is a HOT group of 5 pick this year to potentially run the table, but the schedule (for a Group of 5 team) is brutal.  Honestly, the NIL deal should give Texas a leg back into the big leagues shortly (no shortage of money in Austin), but this is a must win (or rather 'can't lose') game for the Longhorns.  Yeah, there is a world in which UL is more talented than UT (maybe), but Texas needs to avoid faceplanting this early.  Also, don't they know not to schedule non-conference teams with a pulse? How can they be in the SEC? Closer than the experts think.  UL: 27 -- UT: 30
Hoying: Ah, a nice rematch of the game that kicked LSU's magical 2019 run into gear...wait a minute, which Louisiana has a ranked matchup this week? Why is a team like Louisiana ranked? It's because they snakebit Iowa State to open last season and then managed to dodge another Power 5 team for the rest of their season, including the bowl game. No more impressive wins, but a nice 3-point loss against Coastal Carolina. I think a lot of Group of 5 teams who missed out on a lot of nonconference action last year against Power 5 opponents and ended up with inflated records as a result (not their fault, but call a spade a spade) are going to be supremely overvalued this season. And this game is a great chance to find some value. Texas is breaking in a new QB, but 7-Win Sark is back in the head coach's chair after a successful stint in the Nick Saban Rehabilitation Clinic. Did you see what his offense did to Ohio State in last year's national championship? Do you really think he can't do the same to Louisiana? Look for the Big 12 not to repeat last year's atrocious 0-3 campaign against the Sun Belt. UL: 20--UT: 34
Schweinfurth: Texas isn't back, but they should win this by two scores. UL: 20--UT: 42
Seeberg:  I must confess, I'm not entire certain why either of these teams is ranked.  I do know the Longhorns are starting a redshirt freshman at QB but the dreaded "rotation" word is being used as they plan to give the backup QB some time as well (see:  Germaine and Jackson...*facepalm*).  If an admittedly excellent offensive mind like Sark can't settle on a QB either they're both equally good (unlikely) or equally...meh?  Still, the talent disparity has to be enough for the Longhorns to wear UL down in the second half.  Wouldn't surprise me a ton to see this the opposite way, but Texas survives and proves they are at least not not back.  UL: 24--UT: 35

Georgia Bulldogs vs. Clemson Tigers

Draper: This is the game of the year (outside of playoffs/conference championships....and maybe even then!).  It's really hard to kick off the year with a blockbuster matchup in week one because the teams almost always make mistakes early and often.  Many times it comes down to conditioning and mental toughness.  Both of these teams are easily in the contender group (see Bama, Clemson, OU, OSU, Georgia....no others need apply) and will remain so regardless of the outcome of this game.  For Georgia, if not now, when?  JT Daniels at QB, a star studded roster, and a nasty defense highlight the Dawgs.  They need to make a statement early to set the tone that this isn't the UGA that chokes every year (wait for iiiiiiiiiiiitttttt).  DJ Ukulele (I know) looked quite good against ND last year, but this time, he's THE guy.  Also, the Dawg defense is coming. I think UGA breaks through and wins the SEC.  It all depends when the 'oopsie' happens.  No no no...not today.  UGA: 30--Clem: 20
Hoying: The last time you saw Clemson they were getting ripped to shreds (to shreds, you say) by Justin Fields and Trey Sermon. What have we learned from this? (1) don't go out of your way to tick off an Ohio State team that already has you at #1 on the hit list, and (2) maybe Clemson's defense isn't quite as good as they once were. This is the same Clemson team that gave up 47 to Notre Dame (OK, only 33 in regulation, but still). Or maybe they just had an off year and are ready to go back to shutdown quality. It's not like Georgia was all that special last year, either. They played Alabama close for a half before getting smacked, and then took it on the other cheek against Florida. And they needed a lot of help from the Bearcats to sneak a Peach Bowl win and save the season from being a total disappointment. Everyone seems to be salivating over Georgia's JT Daniels, and I just don't see it yet. Two good games against Mississippi State and Missouri do not a superstar make, and we've all seen Georgia's history at developing quarterbacks under Kirby Smart. Clemson has a much better signal caller in DJ Uiagalelei. The good news for Georgia is they'll have numerous additional opportunities to rack up quality wins this year. The bad news is their error margin just went to zero (stupid 2018 final Playoff rankings be damned). UGA: 30--Clem: 34
Schweinfurth: Wow this is such a great week 1 match up. Two of the few schools that have QBs who took meaningful snaps last year. I will say this, the Buckeyes exposed the Clemson defense last year. Can Georgia do the same? I'm not so sure. The Dawgs just down have the same fire power on the outside that the Buckeyes had/have. However, no Travis Etiene or Trevor Lawrence will be a big factor here. I think Georgia wins.  

UGA: 24--Clem: 17
Seeberg:  An absolutely massive week one tilt...made borderline irrelevant with the 4-team playoff.  Still a compelling matchup.  My gut tells me Clemson should win this game...if it weren't for the Sugar Bowl last year.  The Buckeyes absolutely curb-stomped Dabo and Co and exposed some significant flaws in the process, particularly on D.  With Lawrence and Etienne gone, the margin for error for Clemson's defense is that much smaller.  The Bucks laid the blueprint, The Dawgs just have to follow it.  It's week one, so it's unlikely UGA will be as in sync as Fields was last season, and they may not have quite the weapons either, but it should be enough to slip out of Charlotte with a resume-bolstering W.  UGA: 31--Clem: 21

Thursday "Special": THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Minnesota Golden Gophers
Draper: Trap game in week 1!! At least that's what I hear.  I'm simply not buying it.  The Buckeyes are every bit the machine that Bama and Clemson are and the reload moniker works just fine. The WR corps for the Bucks is phenomenal and should make for some explosive plays.  There are 3 things to pay close attention to in this game: 1)  How does Stroud look? (what's the drop off is from Fields?--there has to be some, but I doubt it's immense), 2) Who takes over at RB? and 3) can the passing defense do better than a wet paperbag?  I'm thinking: 1) quite good, 2) RB by committee with Henderson showing the explosion, and 3)...........better than last year I hope?  I have a feeling that Minnesota will score more than I'd like to see, but the offense will do their thing and get the job done.  OSU: 45 -- Minn: 27  
Hoying: Do you remember the last time Ohio State played a stupid season-opening Thursday night conference road game? That's right, it was 2017 Indiana, AKA the J.K. All Day coming out party. The Buckeyes leaned heavily on the true freshman to overcome a rocky first half and cruise to a victory. I feel like we might see a similar script this year, if brand spanking new RB TreVeyon Henderson is able to show some flashes of brilliance (and Master Teague is still his 2020 bowling ball self). With an experienced run-blocking group like the Buckeyes are sporting this year, there's no need to rely on Stroud to do too much early in this one, even with the all-galaxy all-time receiving corps that he has to play around with. As for the Buckeye defense, well, they can't be any worse than last year, right? Yeah, Tanner Morgan and Mohamed Ibrahim are still in Minneapolis to anchor the Gopher backfield, but WR Rashod Bateman isn't streaking down the field any longer. And the Silver Bullet D-Line is only getting nastier as Haskell Garrett, Zach Harrison and Tyreke Smith continue to get stronger and Jack Sawyer and J.T. Tuimoloau add even more star power. Remember what an awful Michigan team did to these clowns in week one last year. I would have preferred a more cupcakey game to start the season off on the easy foot, but the Goofers will do for now. OSU: 34--Minn: 17
Schweinfurth: Row, Row, Row your football team, eh PJ? The Row Boaters had some great momentum until all of the COVID madness last year. Mo Ibrahim is the real deal at running back and Tanner Morgan is a good system QB for what Boat Captain Fleck wants to do. That Gopher defense though...poo. Ohio State is so talented on offense, especially at receiver. Olave is so smooth and Wilson is a beast. I expect Day to draw up a pretty simplistic offense (think lots of crossing routes and power runs) to get Stroud settled in. The Bucks have a lot of question marks, but this is a good match up to get plays on tape. Bucks should cover this one and put a nice sized hole in PJ's row boat. OSU: 45--Minn: 20
Seeberg:  I, for one, am both happy and worried that this game is week one.  Toss it between, say, PSU and MSU and it might get lost a bit, but everyone should be sharp and focused for the first game, especially a night game on the road.  Again, 2020 is an absolute wash.  Do we get 2019 Minnesota with double digit wins?  The QB is still here and in today's college football a 3-year starter is nothing to sneeze at.  Do we get last season's 3-4 Gopher squad?  Who knows.  I do know they return 20(!!!) starters which is almost unheard of.  The Bucks have an almost laughable amount of talent on the offensive side of the ball, and, even with the rough loss of Tyler Friday, a deep and athletic front 4 on D.  It's all about the back seven on D and the trigger man on O.  I don't trust either much...but I trust the remaining units enough to get the scarlet and gray to right around the spread number.  Bucks pull away late then get an extra couple days to prep for the Ducks.  OSU: 38--Minn: 24

Upset Special
Draper: Florida State over Notre Dame
Hoying: Virginia Tech over North Carolina
Schweinfurth: Northern Iowa over Iowa State
Seeberg:  UCLA over LSU

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF CHAMPIONSHIP - BUCKEYES VS. BAMA

Final Post-Bowl Standings:

1.) Draper 30-10 (1-7 upset)
1.) Hoying 30-10 (1-7 upset)
3.) Schweinfurth 29-11 (2-6 upset)

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Draper: This whole year has been about erasing the pain of the Clemson loss last year.  Does this Buckeye team has the fire and will for one more win against, I hate to say it, but a team on another level offensively than Clemson?  The truth is that there have been 4 teams in the Playoff Era on a different plane: Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, and Oklahoma.  Alabama can almost be argued to be in a territory by itself.  However, this year's Alabama squad has a different core makeup than those of the past.  Saban was always able to win with a stalwart shutdown defense and an offense that ran the ball and didn't make mistakes.  Now, we see an offensive juggernaut coupled with an OK-mediocre defense.  The Bama offense led by Jones, Smith, and Harris (and maybe Waddle) is nearly unstoppable.  3 of those listed are NFL first rounders now and that doesn't even mention the line that Bama is known for.  Couple that with the sentience that the Tide have gained by applying smart analytic decision making, and it's no bueno for the other team.  While this seems like a non-starter for the Buckeyes, OSU hasn't been too shabby on offense when given the chance with a better QB than Bama, very close if not equal skill positions and lines.  The slight difference is the consistency of the Bama offense.  But consistency doesn't matter here.  I'm all about variance exploitation, but the Bucks HAVE to hit on all cylinders like in the Sugar Bowl.  This may be the highest over/under in a title game, but I'd still take the over in this perceived shootout.  The Bucks need to punch early and often on offense and not fall behind.  Bama thrives on winning games before the coin flip whereas the Bucks win in the 4th.  If it's close in the 4th, the hours of blood, sweat, and tears in the weight room before the season started show up.  Fields is out to show that last week was the norm and he's ready for prime time. When in doubt, take the better QB.  Go Bucks and bring home #9. OSU: 48--Bama: 45
Hoying: I look at these teams on paper and I see a slightly better passing attack for Alabama, a significantly better rushing attack for Ohio State (just like we all thought in October, right?), a slightly better run defense for the Buckeyes, and, well, the loss of Jeff Okudah, Damon Arnette, and Jordan Fuller being felt particularly hard this season. I look at Alabama's red zone effectiveness in contrast to Ohio State's inexplicable struggles. I think about the players, the ones we still don't know about, that will not be suiting up for the Scarlet and Gray because of the 'rona, while Alabama has been almost entirely spared this season. I get that sense of lingering dread that caused me to pick Clemson to win the Sugar Bowl by multiple scores. But then I look at both of these teams a little more closely. I see that the ceiling is higher for Ohio State than it is for Alabama. Between the two teams, Ohio State has by far the best win, and it was the game they just played, against the best opponent either team has faced this year. Yeah, what Alabama did to Notre Dame might have been more methodical, and they were never, ever going to lose that game, but that was Notre Dame. Ohio State just pantsed Clemson, the co-team of the Playoff era with Alabama, in a total team effort. We've seen it again and again in the Meyer/Day era: when these Buckeyes get rolling against top-level competition, they brake for nobody unless they start to lose focus (Iowa, Purdue) or just yeet the game away (Clemson last year). I'm not saying the Bucks can't give away this game against Alabama; they spent the better part of two quarters trying to do just that the last time these teams played. But I don't care if Alabama has played 11 SEC opponents this season and dominated nearly all of them. They haven't played anyone in Ohio State's galaxy (Pawwwwwwwl), and they're due for a rude awakening. The Buckeyes follow up their amazing Sugar Bowl win with a deserving sequel, and complete Nick Saban's first three-year title drought in Tuscaloosa. OSU: 45--Bama: 35
Schweinfurth: Oh my goodness what a season this has been. One needs only to look at what this team has been through this year to realize this is a special Buckeye team: a canceled and restarted season, stop and go games, positive tests, positive tests the Friday before the B1G Championship Game, Fields getting rocked and having one of the best games by an OSU QB. This team has been though so much, and has the calluses to prove it. So now the Buckeyes are looking up at Mount Alabama. Bama has blown through the SEC this year with relatively little resistance. I think the biggest speed bump Bama had was Ole Miss. What that team showed is that you can score a lot of points on the Alabama defense. Yes there is NFL talent on the Bama D, but there is also NFL talent on the Ohio State Offense. When this game was first announced, I asked my colleagues a simple question, "Has Mac Jones been hit in any of his games this year?" I got a resounding no. This will be the key. Hit Mac Jones and make him uncomfortable. The other is limiting the big play. I didn't look this up, but I am going to go with what Chris Fowler said during the Sugar Bowl. Ohio State doesn't give up touchdowns when teams don't get plays of over 20 yards. I will own up to the fact I didn't think the Bucks could beat Clemson. That dragon has been slayed (and exposed to be a clown). The Buckeyes control both lines of scrimmage again, Sermon has a day (another 85 yards through the heart of the south?), Fields shows why he is a top QB prospect and Ohio State writes a storybook ending to a season that could be featured in a 30 for 30. OHIO AGAINST THE WORLD! GO BUCKS, BEAT BAMA! OSU: 49--Bama: 42

Ten Reasons Ohio State Beats Alabama

1. Underdog Mentality

I said it in 2015 and I'll say it again here. This Ohio State team plays like a different animal when the whole world counts them out. By my count, the Buckeyes haven't lost a game in which they were a big underdog since the game that will not be named closed out the 2011 regular season. They haven't lost much at all, and most of the losses revealed some lack of focus. The Buckeyes aren't going to turtle this away like they did against Michigan State in 2015, and they aren't going to get punked and roll over like they did against Iowa in 2017 or Purdue in 2018. Especially when they have such delicious bulletin board material to work with. Some of it writes itself: Alabama had the Heisman winner, three finalists overall, and swept the offensive awards (other than TE). Notably, the Tide OL won the Joe Moore award, an award for which the slobs were not even finalists. You look at the way the Buckeye O-line has played in their last three games and tell me if they're lacking in skill or motivation. Add to that the random Internet idiots and specific Internet idiots (hi, baby girl Saban) crowing about how Ohio State is trying to duck this game and how they shouldn't have made the Playoff in the first place. Even Nick himself had the Buckeyes at #5 in his final ballot. If Ohio State comes out fully focused and locked in, nobody is beating them.

2. So Fresh and So Clean, Clean

We've all had the pleasure of hearing nonstop over the last month or so (or the whole season) that a team that plays 6 regular season games doesn't belong in the Playoff. The Buckeyes flattened the last chump who put his coaches' poll ballot where his mouth was, but Dabo did have a point. You play fewer games, you amass fewer injuries. True, the Buckeyes lost nickel corner Cameron Brown in their win over Penn State, but Alabama lost a receiver who might be better than the Heisman winner (Jaylen Waddle) and the All-American anchor of what is apparently the nation's best O-line (Landon Dickerson), and oh yeah, their nickel corner (Malachi Moore). Who knows which of these guys, if any, will play, but Dickerson at least seems to be out for Monday's game. That could be a huge problem going against a Buckeye D-line that lived in the backfield and made life miserable for Trevor Lawrence in New Orleans. At least Lawrence could use his mobility to escape the onslaught. The same can't be said for another Playoff QB...

3. Stonewall Mac

Three of the four starting quarterbacks in this year's Playoff could plausibly be described as dual threats (to varying degrees: Fields > Lawrence > Book). The fourth is definitively not so. To be fair, he finished third in the Heisman voting and probably would have won if Devonta's incredible season didn't siphon off most of his votes, but he is vulnerable to pressure. Mr. Jones is sitting on net +3 yards rushing on the year, and took multiple negative plays against each of Florida and Georgia. And now he faces the best pass rushing D-line he'll see all year, with a few great blitzing linebackers thrown in the mix. Lawrence was excellent at hitting his checkdown man while falling or sprinting backwards; can Mac do the same?

4. Après Sark, le Deluge

It's tough to work two jobs at the same time, especially when both are the all-world consuming vocations of big time top level college football coaching. As you've probably heard, Alabama OC Steve Sarkisian will be coaching the Texas Longhorns as soon as this game is over, and he's taking Alabama OL coach Kyle Flood with him. Now, Bama can churn through top level coordinators like nobody else (who's going to refuse a call from Nick Saban?), but for the moment the Tide have an offensive staff with one foot out the door and knowing full well that they have their work cut out for them in Austin. If they're not on their A game in their swan song, and the Crimson juggernaut starts to look mortal, Alabama could be in serious trouble. Also, don't forget, Sark has been here before, albeit with the script flipped. When Lane Kiffin left just before the end of the 2016 season to go to Florida Atlantic, Sark jumped into the acting OC role for the national championship against Clemson. The Tide did not win that game. The Tide didn't win the 2018 national championship either, after OC Mike Locksley was hired away by the Maryland Terrapins prior to the Playoff but coached through Bama's blowout loss in the championship. Could this be a trend?

5. Games on Film

Dabo famously quipped that Ohio State would be a quick film study, as the Tigers would only need to watch 6 games worth as compared to a normal 12 game season. As it turns out, Clemson might've appreciated a few more opportunities to study the Buckeyes before they got run out of the Superdome. Ryan Day remains an intuitively excellent offensive coach, and while the Buckeye bag of tricks is likely significantly emptier after the Sugar Bowl, I expect Alabama to be left guessing on Monday more than normal. Ohio State, in contrast, has a full season's worth of Alabama game film to analyze. Throw in the fact that Ohio State has been starting all sorts of varied lineups as the year has gone on, and the Buckeyes may have an advantage in the opponent analysis department.

6. Weaksauce D

Huh? you say. Alabama has a weaksauce defense? The Tide have the best Power 5 defense outside of the Big Ten West! They've held seven of their last eight opponents below 20 points! Yes, these are all true, but there's an inconvenient truth regarding these dominating defensive performances: Alabama has been playing bad offenses. Notre Dame, Texas A&M, Georgia, and LSU aren't awful, but the only two real offenses Alabama has faced this year were Florida and Ole Miss, and the Tide failed miserably against both of them. Ole Miss hit Alabama with a balanced attack and racked up 647 yards, while Florida managed to stay within a touchdown against the Tide (and might have won without their bonkers end-of-half clock management) despite being unable to do anything on the ground. That's good news for a Buckeye team that just got finished lighting up a very good Clemson secondary and have been basically running the ball at will ever since Trey Sermon took over for Master Teague. The Silver Bullets' struggles have been well documented, but there's no reason not to expect Ohio State's offense to give Bama fits as well.

7. Handling the ACC

What do Clemson and Alabama have in common? Both manhandled Notre Dame at the end of the season, first the Tigers, then the Tide. Alabama slowly strangled the Domers to death after jumping out to a quick lead, whereas Clemson kept pounding on the Irish throughout the game. Could these games provide a clue as to what could happen on Monday? Well, Ohio State just got done playing one of the teams that crushed the Irish this season, and they gave the victor a lovely transitive walloping. If Alabama played Notre Dame about as well as Clemson did, what does that mean for their chances against the Buckeyes on Monday?

8. Heismen Curse

Heisman winners have been hit-or-miss in postseason games over the years. I don't need to remind you that Ohio State's own Archie Griffin and Troy Smith missed out on national championships after winning the award. Three of the last five Heisman winners to play for the title have come up short (Marcus Mariota, Baker Mayfield, and Kyler Murray), in contrast to the unflappable Heisman winners Joe Burrow and...Alabama's Derrick Henry (hmm). Devonta Smith seems like a humble guy and a real dude overall, and the Heisman celebration tour is decidedly more muted than in prior years, but will his performance suffer? And what of the other finalists? I mentioned in my list of reasons Alabama will win that the Tide have the first trio of top 5 Heisman finishers since 1946 Army, and that the Black Knights won the title that year. Well, I misled you a little. 1946 Army did go 9-0-1, and they did win a share of a title, but that one tie? That was a scoreless tie against Notre Dame, who also went 9-0-1 and won the consensus title that year.

9. Revenge Factor

Revenge factor? Didn't Ohio State win the last time these two teams met? And wasn't that six years ago, when none of the current players were playing for either of these teams? Yes, but there happens to be a player on Ohio State's roster that has seen the Tide before: Justin Fields. Fields, of course, was not the starting QB for the 2018 Georgia Bulldogs that faced Alabama in the SEC Championship (that was Jake Fromm for some unfathomable reason), but he did see some action in that game, tossing one incomplete pass and running the ball three times. You may remember that awful fake punt that essentially gifted the game to the Tide late. Yup, that was Fields (not his fault the play sucked, though). Thankfully, the Ohio State offensive planners are nowhere near the train wreck that is Kirby Smart's staff and Justin should be able to make some magic to avenge a prior lost Playoff spot.

10. As Gold Is Tested by Fire

OK, so neither of these teams has found themselves in a great deal of trouble on the field this season. Alabama had a bit of a problem stopping Ole Miss for two and a half quarters and saw Florida pull within 6 points of a victory late in the SEC title game, and they trailed at half against Georgia, but that was about it. Ohio State, likewise, gave Indiana the ball with a chance to tie or take the lead late, and took 3 quarters to figure out to run the dang ball against Northwestern, but was otherwise never seriously threatened. Off the field, however, it's been a different story. The Buckeyes have seen their schedule modified, cancelled, uncancelled and remodified, cut nearly in half by week-to-week cancellations, become ineligible for the B1G Championship, become re-eligible for the B1G Championship just in time to go, and have generally waited on pins and needles week after week to see whether each Saturday's matchup would be cancelled at the last minute. It must have been exhausting. But the Buckeyes are still standing, still undefeated, just played their best game of the season, and are cleared to play one more. The last two Buckeye national champions have overcome tremendous adversity, whether on or off the field, to claim their crowns. The ones who made it look easy (1996, 1998, 2006, 2019) have always come up just short. 

Ten Reasons Alabama Beats Ohio State

1. Can't Stop Won't Stop

Alabama features the best offense Ohio State has seen since probably 2005 Texas. The 2005 Buckeyes were able to grind the Longhorn attack to a near halt, but that team had the best set of linebackers in school history and sent three DB's to the following year's NFL draft. This year's version of the Buckeyes face a bit more of a pick your poison, as three Bama skill players finished in the top five of the Heisman voting, including the first WR to receive the award since the College Gameday court jester. The last team to put three Heisman finalists in the top five was 1946 Army, who went 9-0-1 and won a national championship. Oh, and the big guys up front making it happen just won the prize for top OL in the nation. Yes, the Tide only put 31 points up on Notre Dame in the Rose Bowl, but that was a Tresselball, slow-roll-your-chump-opponent performance for the ages. Bama now has the luxury of having saved everything they had in the Playoff tank for the Silver Bullets.

2. Primary Target: Secondary

So who is tasked with stopping this unstoppable Crimson onslaught on the back end? A thoroughly average secondary. Criticism of the Buckeye DBs has been a bit overblown this season; they're right in the middle of the pack in terms of YPA and QBR, and their TD : INT ratio of 11 : 7 isn't horrible either. Yes, the Buckeyes give up a ton of yards per game, but that's to be expected when (i) Ohio State scores in a flash and gives their opponents a ton of possessions, and (ii) running the ball against the Buckeye front is completely pointless. That being said, see #1 above. An average defense is not going to make the cut against a passing attack more lethal than last year's Joe Burrow juggernaut. The back seven may have stopped Trevor Lawrence from finding the end zone too often, but he still put up a quiet 400 yards. If Bama's receivers are getting the ball in space, look out.

3. One Game Season (not this one)

In the 1969 season finale, the #1 Ohio State Buckeyes suffered probably the worst loss in team history, a 24-12 upset at the hands of That Team Up North, denying them what would have been a second straight national championship. For the next 12 months, the Buckeyes obsessed over this loss, even having a rug installed in the locker room with the score of the 1969 game printed on it. And sure enough, the Buckeyes avenged their loss to the Wolverines the following season to cap a 9-0 regular season. Then they went to the Rose Bowl and faded down the stretch against the #12 Stanford Indians, narrowly missing out on the national title for a second straight season. The point is, how much of this season has been focused on the national championship, and how much has been a buildup to a revenge game against Clemson? Take a good look at how the Buckeyes played against Northwestern, and then how they looked 2 weeks later against the Tigers. How much of the prep time against the Wildcats was devoted to, perhaps, a different anticipated opponent? And, if so, have the Buckeyes spent any extra time in this truncated season preparing for Alabama? Not likely.

4. Past Perfect + Future Perfect

As stated above, I don't think it's any secret that the Buckeyes were more motivated and prepared for Clemson than any of their other hapless opponents this season. But preparation is meaningless without execution, and Ohio State's execution in the Sugar Bowl was nearly flawless. Sure, there was Fields's pick in the end zone that wiped 3 points off the board, and a couple of misses in coverage, and whatever the Buckeyes were trying to do to slow their own momentum on their first possession, but Clemson was the team crumbling under the pressure, not Ohio State. Think back to the 2014-15 Playoff. Ohio State made boatloads of errors in both the Alabama and Oregon games but was able to pretty much dominate both teams regardless. This year's Alabama team is a whole different beast. The Buckeyes have really only played two complete near-perfect games this year (Michigan State and Clemson...maybe you can throw in Nebraska as well); they're going to need a third to walk away Monday as champions. Alabama merely needs to be very good.

5. Crimson Zone > Scarlet Zone

Why did Ohio State lose the 2019 Fiesta Bowl? There are about 20 answers to that question, but the most glaring issue was the Buckeyes' performance in the red zone. Ohio State reached the red zone on three drives and came away with three field goals. Clemson, contrariwise, scored a touchdown on their only red zone possession. Have the Buckeyes fixed this problem in 2020? No, it has gotten worse. The 2019 Buckeyes actually excelled overall at red zone production throughout the year, with a 78.67% TD rate matched at the Power 5 level only by LSU (exactly matched, eerily enough). This year? The Buckeyes are posting a nasty 64.10% TD rate, and a paltry 76.92% overall scoring rate, in the red zone. That's right, the 2019 Buckeyes were better at scoring TDs in the red zone than the 2020 Buckeyes are at getting any points in the same area. How about the Buckeyes' championship opponent, sporting the nation's top offense? 77.42% TD rate and 91.94% overall scoring rate. And these stats aren't padded against the Citadels and Charleston Southerns of the world, either. The Buckeyes didn't settle for any field goals against Clemson this time, but an interception stole one red zone scoring opportunity, and the Buckeyes would have lost a TD without Skalski's targeting call. Bend but don't break may not be an option for the Silver Bullets on Monday night.

6. Bustin Fields

In the first quarter of the Sugar Bowl, I found myself struck by how much Ohio State's game plan revolved around moving Justin Fields all over the place. Whether on designed runs or rollouts, Fields didn't seem to stay limited to the pocket very often, and I wondered how much his knee injury had limited his (and the Buckeye offense's) true potential in last year's loss to Clemson. Now, once again, we find ourselves wondering how and to what extent Fields is limited after another huge hit. Sure, on Friday, Justin just took a licking and kept on ticking, proving he can still toss darts over the safeties' heads even after his rack of ribs got smoked, but how much is he willing/able to run with the ball if he needs to? Fields's excellent mobility is his most glaring advantage over his counterpart in this game, and it's hard to imagine the Buckeye offense matching the Tide blow for blow with their star QB at less than 100%. And, though Fields is as tough a customer as any who've worn the scarlet and gray, it's not hard to imagine how another hard hit could knock him out of the game for good.

7. Five Below

Unless you start losing star players down the stretch, your team is only going to be strengthened by each additional live-fire rep they can get. And as we've seen this season, the Buckeyes have faced problems in different places on the field (*cough* *secondary*) that they haven't had many opportunities to repair. Alabama has faced 11 different SEC opponents and the #4 team in the country, while Ohio State has only had 7 chances total to learn and progress in real games in this most bizarre of bizarro seasons. And, as stated above, they've looked good start-to-finish in, at most, three of them. Thankfully, two of those were in the last three games the Buckeyes have played, but there was the clunker against Northwestern sandwiched in the middle. It doesn't help when the shortest gap between games in the second half of the season was between the Big Ten Championship and the Sugar Bowl. Alabama perfected their craft by sometime around the Georgia game, which was before Ohio State even saw the field. The Tide, like the Buckeyes, looked vulnerable on championship weekend, but that was the only blip in a stretch that's been longer the entire 2020 Buckeye season. 

8. The Ring King

Ryan Day has been a tremendous success in his 2+ years as Ohio State's head coach, racking up one loss in his first 24 games. But, uh, the guy on the other sideline is no slouch either. All he's done is win five national championships in thirteen years as coach of Alabama, after winning another natty at LSU. He has more wins than any active FBS coach not named Mack Brown (Mack has double his losses), and before last year's blip, his teams finished ranked #1 or #2 four years running, a trend sure to continue this season regardless of Monday's outcome. That being said, his Alabama teams haven't completed an undefeated season since he won it all the first time in 2009.

9. Going Viral

You may be aware that there is a disease that has been causing some slight disruptions in society over the past few months. And its spread hasn't spared the Buckeyes, either. Aside from causing the straight up cancellation of three games on Ohio State's already depleted schedule, the virus has contributed to the Buckeyes fielding some less than complete squads over the past few weeks. A missing Chris Olave against Northwestern here, an absent Zach Harrison against Clemson there, the whole OL gone against Michigan State...it's been an issue. And now rumors swirl of additional players likely to be out against Alabama, including what may be the Silver Bullets' anchor and best player. The Tide, for better or worse, seem to have navigated the pandemic a bit more cleanly, and I haven't seen any reports of any key players in danger of missing Monday's showdown. And speaking of Bama not having problems with missing players...

10. Waddle We Do?

Why wasn't Heisman winner Devonta Smith a finalist in 2019? Because he had to compete with Jaylen Waddle, Jerry Jeudy, and Henry Ruggs for touches, the latter two of which have been busy this year tearing it up in the NFL. As for Waddle, he may have been outplaying Smith for the first 4 games of the season before he broke his ankle and Smith was suddenly "the guy" for the Alabama offense. And now, after missing the better part of the 2020 season, look who's back at practice and inspiring whispers of playing on Monday night. The Buckeye back seven are already going to have their hands full trying to cover one NFL first round WR; they don't need a second one to get lost in the secondary and bring back nightmares of Penix to Fryfogle and Philyor.

Mythbusters: Fiesta Bowl

Flash back to a year (and two days) ago. You just saw what may have been the best Buckeye team in your lifetime come up just short against their most annoying modern recurring foe after jumping out to a 16-0 lead and seeming to have the game well in hand. It hurt like hell, and it felt like Ohio State would have gotten the job done if only one of so many bad breaks (and bad calls) had gone their way. 

But does this stand up to scrutiny?

There's no way to be sure without going back and rewatching the game. And I can't think of many activities I would enjoy less. But, because I love you, loyal reader, so much, and because I would spare you from experiencing this awful pain yourself, I went back and watched the whole thing again. We'll go through a few lasting impressions that have seemed to resonate most strongly with Buckye Nation over the last year. 

Myth #1: All the breaks went against Ohio State. Any one of them plays out differently and the Buckeyes win.

Verdict: BUSTED

It is true that Ohio State had a lot of bad breaks in the Fiesta Bowl:

• Garrett Wilson's circus catch on the first drive, while overturned on replay to give Ohio State a first down instead of an incompletion, completely broke the momentum of that first drive.
• Dobbins got caught by the foot on his second big breakaway run and went down at the 8 instead of in the end zone.
• Dobbins then dropped a pass in the end zone.
• On the next drive, Dobbins dropped a well set-up screen pass on 2nd and 15 from the Clemson 16.
• Shaun Wade's targeting ejection turned a 3rd down sack into a first down and robbed Ohio State of their best slot corner.
• Dobbins hurt his ankle, missed a second quarter and a third quarter drive, and came back with a heavily taped ankle.
• Josh Proctor fell down chasing Trevor Lawrence on his 67 yard TD run.
• Cam Brown roughed the punter after missing the ball.
• Okudah's strip of Justyn Ross and Fuller's scoop and score were overturned on replay.
• Clemson muffed a punt before their last drive but immediately fell on the ball.
• And, of course, Olave broke off his route as Fields let the ball go straight at Nolan Turner.

That's a lot of big-time mistakes, almost all of which directly and proximately made a difference on the scoreboard. BUT, you may forget that the Buckeyes caught a decent number of breaks as well.

• Clemson's top receiver, Tee Higgins, hit his head on the ground on Clemson's first drive and misses the entire first half. Ask Troy Smith what losing your top receiver does to your offense. Heck, ask Justin Fields.
• Clemson missed a field goal on their first drive.
• Clemson dropped a sure pick six on Ohio State's third drive.
• Wide open Higgins dropped the ball on third down at midfield as Clemson was driving to try to take the lead coming out of the half.

Yes, most of the bad breaks went against the Buckeyes, but Higgins' absence cannot be overstated, and a pick six is always a game changer.

Myth #2: The Buckeyes win the Fiesta Bowl if Dobbins doesn't get hurt.

Verdict: BUSTED

Everyone remembers two things about Dobbins' performance in the Fiesta Bowl: (1) he ripped off multiple huge runs before he got hurt, and (2) he didn't do a whole lot after his ankle was taped up. This is mostly true, but it ignores a key part of the game: the period between Dobbins' second huge run and his ankle injury. 

The first quarter ended with JK Dobbins tearing off a 64 yard run to the Clemson 8 yard line, capping off a 6 rush, 141 yard quarter. Dobbins left the game with an ankle injury with 2:05 remaining in the first half. Between these two events, here was his production:

• 3 yard rush on second and goal
• Dropped TD pass on third and goal
• Dropped screen pass on 2nd and 15 from the Clemson 16
• Rush for no gain to start a drive
• Rush for a loss of 2 yards on 3rd and 1, injured ankle

That's five touches for a total of one yard. Dobbins had himself a first quarter but was strangely ineffective for the second. The Buckeyes were already starting to sprinkle in Master Teague before Dobbins got hurt, as Teague had four rushes to Dobbins' three during the pre-injury second quarter.

After returning, Dobbins did this:

• 2 yard rush
• 5 yard rush
• 11 yard reception
• 4 yard rush
• 7 yard reception
• 2 yard rush
• 11 yard rush
• 1 yard rush
• 2 yard rush
• 6 yard rush
• Rush for loss of 1 yard
• 13 yard reception
• 9 yard reception
• 9 yard reception

Not great, but not bad. And those last three receptions were on Ohio State's last drive, where they were moving the ball seemingly at will before you-know-what happened. And Dobbins himself was wide open for another 5 to 10 yard checkdown pass on that fateful play. Nobody wanted to see Dobbins hobbled, but he was able to be productive enough post-injury.

Myth #3: The refs hosed Ohio State out of a win.

Verdict: Wait a second. This one's a little complicated. When people think this, they usually have two plays in mind:

1. Shaun Wade's sack / targeting ejection.
2. Okudah's strip and Fuller's scoop and score, overturned on replay.

Regarding #1, the myth is BUSTED. It is true that the importance of this play cannot be overstated. At this point in the game, Ohio State had a 16 point lead, the Clemson offense had done absolutely nothing, and Wade had just scored a huge drive ending sack that threatened to knock Lawrence out of the game. In an instant, Ohio State lost their best slot corner, the Clemson drive was extended, and, after throwing at Wade's replacement (Amir Riep) on the next play and drawing a DPI, the Tigers got on the board almost immediately, scoring their first of three straight touchdowns. HOWEVER, the call was the correct one. Wade lowered his head and hit Lawrence's helmet with the crown of his helmet. Was it a dirty hit? No. Was it targeting by the letter of the rule? Yes. Would Wade have hit Lawrence helmet-to-helmet anyway if both he and Lawrence didn't lower their helmets? Probably? Is the targeting rule the worst rule in sports? Yes. But blame goes to the rule writers, not the refs on the field (or in the replay booth).

Regarding #2, the myth is PLAUSIBLE. Ross caught the ball and brought it down while he took three quick steps, all before the ball came out. Nothing approaching "indisputable video evidence" was available to reverse the scoop and score call on the field. This would have given Ohio State back the lead immediately after losing it, but it's hard to say whether the game would have gone in Ohio State's favor from there. After the botched call, Clemson had to punt anyway and then Fields threw an interception. Maybe with the momentum and the lead the Buckeyes could have done something differently, but they ended up taking the lead back on the next drive after that anyway.

Myth #4: The Buckeyes dominated the Tigers, but a tiny handful of big plays and costly errors cost them the game.

Verdict: CONFIRMED

Ohio State outgained Clemson by 99 yards and converted 7 of 18 third downs to Clemson's 5 of 14, adding 1-for-1 on fourth down as well. The Buckeyes scored on 5 drives to Clemson's 4. But there were a few plays when they couldn't get out of their own way, and a few when you just have to tip your cap to the Tigers:

• Dobbins drops two probable touchdown passes, taking 8 points off the board.
• Shaun Wade's targeting sack and Amir Riep's subsequent DPI gifted Clemson the ball at the Ohio State 16 after the drive had been dead stopped, and Clemson (unlike Ohio State all game) is able to convert in the red zone for the TD.
• Clemson has the ball on their own 33 with 1:22 left in the first half and one timeout, and rips off a 67 yard QB draw.
• Roughing the punter, followed almost immediately by a 53 yard dumpoff TD pass to Travis Etienne. Another Clemson scoring drive that had to be brought back from the dead.
• The overturned scoop and score.

And after all that, the Buckeyes were knocking on the door, down six, at the Clemson 23, with 43 seconds left, and moving the ball with surprising ease.

Myth #5: Everybody thought Ohio State was going to pull it off at the end.

Verdict: I mean, I did. Didn't you?

New Year's Six - Now with 0% More Indiana

Final Standings:

1.) Schweinfurth 25-9 (2-6 upset)
1.) Draper 25-9 (1-7 upset)
1.) Hoying 25-9 (1-7 upset)

It's been the kind of year in college football where people are outraged that Cincinnati's not in the Playoff and Indiana and Coastal Carolina aren't in major bowl games. Then again, it's been the kind of year where the Power 5 conference champions are Clemson, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Oregon, and Alabama. Let's hope the Playoff is on the weird side.

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 30

Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma Sooners vs. Florida Gators

Draper: When the New Years 6 was (were?) created, it was thought that this would create incentives beyond the playoff to support the bowl system.  The problem is that it's not having the desired effect in most cases.  Motivation for the bowl matters...a lot...and the Gators don't seem to care.  They had their shot against Bama, emptied the chamber, and ended up falling short.  They have nothing left.  While I think (at full strength) the Gators are far FAR more talented than the Sooners, the Sooners are excited to have won the Big 12 after fighting their way into the mix.  Spencer Rattler and company will be able to keep up with Kyle Trask and the backups.  I lean on the motivation side and the Sooners. Soon-to-be Bengal, Kyle Pitts, will watch from afar knowing that his presence would have likely given the Gators the win.  BOOMER! UF: 30 -- OU: 36
Hoying: When you saw the Gators polish off Oklahoma back in 2008 for their second national title in three years (grrr...), you probably didn't think it would be the Sooners who would be competing for national titles over the next decade-plus while Florida foundered around trying to get out of the SEC East unscathed. But, here we are, with Oklahoma missing the Playoff for the first time since 2016, and only the third time ever. Of course, it's not like their appearances have been anything to write home about. Other than taking the ball out of Baker Mayfield's hands in the 2018 Rose Bowl to gack away a game against Georgia, the Sooners haven't come within single digits of any other Playoff competitor, mostly because their defense has been so awful. It turns out that one team in this game has a pretty awful defense, but it's not Oklahoma. The Gators have been able to overcome a so-so defense with their terrific offensive power (sounds like another team I know formerly coached by Urban Meyer). Problem is the horses are rapidly leaving the stable, as all-NCAA pass catcher Kyle Pitts and WRs Kadarius Toney and Trevon Grimes are skipping the Cotton Bowl to focus on their future NFL careers. Don't worry, Kyle Trask will still be back there, but as we saw last week in Indianapolis, losing your top target(s) can drastically alter the comfort level of an offense. And unlike Ohio State, Florida does not have any semblance of a running game to fall back on. I felt pretty good picking the Gators before this latest rash of desertions, but this Boomer Sooner D is too good to be punked by second string wide receivers. UF: 23--OU: 27

Schweinfurth: I'm just going to throw this out there now, I don't think anyone really knows what we are going to see in any of these not-playoff games this year. This has been a long season for all these guys and most of them are just mentally worn down more than normal. With that said, I don't trust either of these teams. Oklahoma doesn't play defense and Florida can't run the ball. That makes Florida sound like a typical Big 12 team. That may be an advantage for Oklahoma, but there is just something about this Oklahoma team I just can't trust. This game should be a shootout. I'll take Trask with one final big drive of the year (unless a defender throws a shoe. Honestly, who throws a shoe?). UF: 42--OU: 35

FRIDAY, JANUARY 1

Peach Bowl: Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Georgia Bulldogs

Draper: Another game of 'who wants to be here?'  While Cincinnati wanted more, this is far and away their biggest game of the year; whereas UGA was playoff or bust.  Does this game matter to them? Will the lesser talent of the Bearcats (sorry, it's true) be bolstered by the motivation to prove they belong? I actually think there's a good chance Georgia sleepwalks throughout this even though they've been playing decent football lately.  This is a tough one as the Bulldogs motivation is to not get sniped by the G5 opponent.  This is a case of wanted to 'not lose' is more important than winning.  There will be a ton of opt-outs on the Georgia side, but I after watching the American Championship, I don't think UC has the horses to keep up with a second tier UGA squad.  This should be a really fun game to watch, but the big Dawg keeps the title and the SEC homers pound their chests.  UC: 27 -- UGA: 30  
Hoying: Mark Dantonio isn't roaming the sidelines in Cincinnati anymore but the disrespekt train is still chugging dourly along. After Notre Dame grabbed the #4 spot in the Playoff (obviously), the cries arose of "why not Cincinnati? They went undefeated and won by a bunch!" Why not Cincinnati? Because they played zero Power 5 teams this year. Because they beat Tulsa on a last second field goal. Because they looked pretty good last year too and they got whacked by Ohio State 42-0. Coastal Carolina had by far the better argument, but the Committee made it obvious early on that neither of these teams was sniffing the Playoff. Now, with all that being said, is Cincinnati good enough to beat Georgia? Maybe? Georgia is probably the single most overrated team in the nation this year, getting spanked soundly by both Alabama and Florida and beating a total of one team with a winning record (6-4 Auburn). Yeah, yeah, they're supposedly so much better now that they have JT Daniels at QB instead of Stetson Bennett IV, but it's easy to look good against South Carolina and Missouri. This is probably Kirby Smart's worst UGA team since his first year, and this is probably Luke Fickell's best UC team, but again, 42 to nothing. Nobody will mistake Georgia for 2019 Ohio State but I refuse to believe that Cincinnati has improved by leaps and bounds in this bizarre season. UC: 20--UGA: 27

Schweinfurth: Cincinnati is motivated. I mean really, really motivated. They have heard all year how it's great they are undefeated, and then the committee drops them 5 places behind 2 and 3 loss teams. My stance on the committee is a discussion for later, but this is a HUGE step up in competition. I want Cincinnati to win, just to throw it in committee's face. Unfortunately, the talent just doesn't match up. This will be a dog fight to the end. I expect nothing less from a Luke Fickell lead team. If Georgia shows up, they win. Again, where are they mentally? UC: 17--UGA: 21

SATURDAY, JANUARY 2

Fiesta Bowl: Oregon Ducks vs. Iowa State Cyclones

Draper: So excited for Indiana to get their shot on the big st....what? Iowa-freaking-State? Come on.  This was the Hoosiers moment and we get a flimsy conference (yet not division) champion vs....a 3-loss Big 12 team? sheesh.  Motivation again reigns supreme.  The Ducks looked good against the Trojans in the Pac12 title so maybe the preseason expectations are coming true.  While the Clones made the Big 12 title game close, they were getting blasted early by OU and mounted a furious comeback.  Did they empty the chamber? Is Matt Campbell coaching with an eye on Ann Arbor? I think I'll throw the dart here.  The Ducks show the Pac 12 still exists (although no one cares) and they emerge from the desert victorious.  QUACK! Ore: 31 -- ISU: 24
Hoying: Congratulations to the Oregon Ducks on being the 2012 Wisconsin of the Pac-12. One more loss than both the Washington Huskies and the USC Trojans wasn't going to stop the totally pedestrian Ducks from making their second consecutive New Year's Six appearance. Oregon didn't play any games out of conference this year, which severely curtailed their chances of picking up a quality loss like the Cyclones' defeat at the hands of Louisiana (no, not Louisiana State, Louisiana). But seriously, the Clones have looked a lot better since their baffling season-opening loss, including coming up just 34 yards short of a Big 12 Championship. I'm inclined to pick the team enjoying steady success over the team whose season has been going in fits and starts (sigh) and included a two-game skid against bad teams. I put no stock in the Ducks' win over USC; the Trojans are a mediocre team that was begging to get tagged. OU and OSU are the real deal and ISU hung tough with both. The Cyclones cap what may be the greatest season in school history and cement Matt Campbell's status at the top of every team's wish list. Ore: 20--ISU: 31

Schweinfurth: I really don't know what to think of Oregon (or the Pac-12 for that matter). I watched one game Pac-12 game this year and it was USC/Oregon. I was underwhelmed by both teams. Iowa State has been playing extremely well, outside of the Big 12 title game. Matt Campbell gets his guys ready. I'll take the Cyclones. Ore: 24--ISU: 35

Orange Bowl: North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Texas A&M Aggies

Draper: I know I'm a broken record, but does A&M want to prove they were snubbed (they weren't) or do they fade quietly into that good night.  Good news for them is that UNC isn't very good.  Sam Howell is a nice QB albeit inconsistent, but let's not forget this Tarheels team lost to FSU (TALKIN!)--not a feather in one's cap.  A&M defeated the Gators in front of a capacity crowd and was thoroughly 'meh' through the rest of their schedule (albeit the drubbing to Bama).  Their resume (and even the stupid 'eye-test') were much weaker than the media would lead you to believe.  That said....3 point loss to Florida State in 2020.  Tarheels find a way to blow this one to another team with few starters. UNC: 24 -- TAMU: 34

Hoying: OK, speaking of teams (not Cincinnati) with at least colorable cases to be put in the Playoff, here we have the Texas A&M Aggies, who survived a league-only schedule in America's Favorite Conference (TM) with only one loss. Granted, the loss was by a million to the team which won their division, and unlike Notre Dame they didn't split a series with such juggernaut, but they tried real hard and beat a good team or two along the way. This is one of the more intriguing matchups of the bowl season. A&M has a great drag-it-out, ball control, game control boa constrictor game style, whereas UNC opts for the point-a-minute high flying offense. Now, Notre Dame showed that the Tar Heel attack can be stopped, but, as I just said above, Texas A&M isn't Notre Dame. That being said, the Aggies have shown that they can keep up with potent offenses when they need to. Just look at the Florida game. Mack is hot stuff in bowl games, but so is Jimbo, and the Aggies' overall talent should be the difference maker. UNC: 31--TAMU: 34

Schweinfurth: I have no idea with this game. On one hand, you have UNC, who can't stop anyone for 2.5 quarters and then suddenly becomes a world beater. On the other, you have TAMU who haven't looked like a top 10 team at times this year. I think that TAMU is the more consistant team of the two and that should lead to a good victory over a growing program. Let's prop up that SEC even more! UNC: 35--TAMU: 38

FRIDAY, JANUARY 1 again

[Rose] Bowl: Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

Draper: In the words of a great man (Raffi from The League), "This....is gonna be gross".  Notre Dame rightly got the 4th spot in the playoff, but Bama is still Bama.  Imagine if the committee was more intelligent and put A&M in the 4th spot....what could they do to Bama if they only had their shot?  I'll admit that the Irish have outpunched their weight class this year, but I don't see the path here.  Ian Book has had quite a career in the gold.  It's just a shame this will likely be the sad ending.  Mac Jones, Devonta Smith, and Najee Harris are going to make mincemeat out of the Irish D and I expect the Tide defense to limit Notre Dame as much or more than Clemson did in the ACC championship.  The Gators put points up on Saban, but the Kyles (Pitts and Trask) aren't waking up the echoes here.  Bama by a million.  ND: 13--Bama: 52
Hoying: Much is being made of the two eggs Notre Dame has laid in their last two BCS/Playoff appearances, losing by 28 and 27. Granted, those losses were against the teams of the decade, Alabama and Clemson, but uh oh, look who's coming for the Irish this time. This Alabama team looks as good as any Saban has coached, with the possible exception of 2018, and their juggernaut offense stops for nobody. The great offense-defense switcheroo of 2020 has not spared Notre Dame, who have ridden their defense into their second Playoff appearance. Unfortunately, this defense failed them in both games they played against the other Playoff team they've played this season, giving up 33 (in regulation) and 34 to Clemson. That's bad news when you're facing the likely Heisman winner, another Heisman finalist, and the top non-finalist vote getter. There really isn't a reason to pick the Irish in this one. They've won one shootout this season, and it was in a game where their opponent was missing two of their linebackers and a D-lineman. You can score on Bama if you're up to it, but not before they put 50 on you first. ND: 27--Bama: 42

Schweinfurth: There really isn't much to break down here. The Irish are in this position based on one win against a depleted Clemson team. Bama is just stocked top to bottom and you need an NFL caliber defense to stop them. Notre Dame gets embarrassed on a national stage again. Bama by a trillion. ND: 17--Bama: 52

Sugar Bowl: THE Ohio State University Buckeyes vs. Clemson Tigers

Draper: We have the rematch against the team we cannot seem to beat.  Sadly, last year was the much better shot and we had it.  This is the year of motivation from the opposite side.  Will the desire to avenge a loss allow for reaching a higher level or cause silly mistakes with over-pursuit.  I don't feel great about this game with the severely depleted defense compared to last year, but Clemson is also worse for the wear.  Lawrence has the edge over Fields because it seems that Fields has had a level of indecision and lack of confidence in his throws since the IU game.  Is it the yips? Something behind the scenes? Too much pressing? Ryan Day was right in saying that we haven't seen this Buckeye team play their best game of the season; and we'll need it Friday to have a shot.  Olave and Wilson need to shine while Trey Sermon's performance last week should make the Tigers pay some attention.  Can the D limit Lawrence and Etienne? I think the key is getting pressure with the front 4 (which has been fantastic this year) and preventing the big play (not as fantastic).  Maybe Lawrence is focused on real estate in Jacksonville rather than prepping? I don't care.  This is a Buckeye blog and I love my team.  The magic happens and the Bucks win a shoot out. I'm no fake-Buckeye.  Clem: 40 -- OSU: 41

Hoying: It's finally here. The most anticipated rematch for Buckeye fans since 2014 Michigan State, and the stakes couldn't be higher. On paper, this is not a great matchup for the scarlet and gray. Trevor Lawrence may not be winning the Heisman this year, but he's still the consensus #1 overall pick in the NFL draft, and he's throwing against an Ohio State secondary that played hide and don't seek (you're excused, Mr. Wade) against the only other effective passing attack they've faced. The good news is that Ohio State probably has slight edges in each other phase of the game. Dobbins ripped apart the Clemson front seven last year, and Sermon has the right skill set (one cut and go) to make the Tigers pay again. Travis Etienne did a whole lot of nothing when getting the ball behind the line of scrimmage last year, and the Clemson O-line has taken a step back overall, while the Buckeye linebackers are as good as they've been since 2015's monster trio of Lee, McMillan, and Perry. And Justin Fields is still really, really good, Northwestern game notwithstanding, and he'll have CO2 back to pace him for those 10 yard throws to the sideline. A Buckeye win here would probably look a lot like the 2015 Oregon game: control the flow, lean on the running game (including the QB), and come up with enough plays on defense to knock the elite opposing QB out of his rhythm. Don't forget that the Tigers are missing safety Nolan Turner, the greatest Clemson game ending villain since Charlie Bauman, for the first half, due to a targeting ejection against Notre Dame. It would be nice to jump out to another early lead, and then not lose it to momentum stealing body blows (or head blows) this time. A Buckeye loss here would probably look like, well, the 2014 Orange Bowl. Who else still has nightmares of Tajh Boyd to Sammy Watkins on every freaking play? The Buckeyes will be coming out frothing at the mouth (hopefully not literally) for this one, between the way last year ended and Dabo's continued trolling. Under Urban, the Buckeyes always looked their best when the whole world counted them out, but I think the lack of reps and the loss of talent in the secondary is going to be too much to overcome. If by some miracle the Silver Bullets can keep from getting beat deep, look for Lawrence to win the game with his legs the way he did last time. There's always next year, Buckeye Nation (for real this time, hopefully). After what happened in August, I'm glad we were able to get this far. Clem: 38--OSU: 28

Schweinfurth: Dabo is a hypocrite, a troll, and just unlikable at this point. The dude just needs to lean into the villain role and waffling. At least then I would respect the guy. With that said, this game is one of the biggest reasons the Buckeyes pushed the B1G into playing this season. The Bucks got jobbed last year (weak targeting and botched catch/fumble). In reality, this is how it has gone against Clemson two of the last three times these teams have played. The Bucks have been up in those two games and then weird and stupid stuff happens. What worries my is the start/stop nature of this season. The Bucks haven't had the chance to really build up through this year. It would have been nice to get the full schedule, or only one cancellation, so this team could get live reps. The defense has shown signs of gelling and was making fewer mistakes in the last few games. Clemson will magnify these mistakes (see Lawrance's huge run last year). The Buckeyes have all the motivation they need to win this game. Will that be enough? At some point, that motivation can become crushing pressure. I think this will be close. I think Ohio State will have a lead in this game. And I think something stupid will happen to let motor mouth a-hole get the win. Clem: 24--OSU: 21

Week 16: Win and In

Standings:

1.) Schweinfurth 19-9 (2-6 upset)
1.) Draper 19-9 (1-7 upset)
1.) Hoying 19-9 (1-7 upset)

Just like we all expected after the Fiesta Bowl last year, the Buckeyes come into Championship Weekend 2020 undefeated, heavily favored, and one win away from a certain Playoff berth. That's all that really matters, right?

On a side note, given how precious each game has been this fall (even the rematches), the How Pointless? meter is on a one year hiatus.

FRIDAY

Pac-12: Washington Huskies Oregon Ducks @ Southern California Trojans

Draper: Oh, the Pac 12 has a championship? That's cute.  I also enjoy how they spin the wheel to determine the teams, but alas, 2020.  Oregon entered the season with the weight of a conference on their shoulders but the Trojans enter with the slim hope that someone on the committee will watch the game on Friday night.  USC has won multiple games on last minute prayers....and Oregon has been supremely meh.  In these crazy times, I'm going to revert to the prior and give the edge to the team who's coach just got a monster extension.  Quack.  Ore: 31 -- USC: 27
Hoying: Here come the Trojans and the Ducks, fresh off their grueling five game schedules (shhhhh...) and ready to battle for a nice pat on the head and invitation to one of the few bowls that will probably actually be played. I mean, technically, USC should still be as deep in the playoff hunt as anybody (and a darn sight deeper than teams like Florida or Iowa State) but the Committee's list of random opinions this season does not include giving any credence to the powers out west. And, it's kind of tough to blame them. USC has not looked particularly impressive in any of their games this season, with the possible exception of boatracing Washington State a couple of weeks back. The passing attack is pretty solid but that's about all the Trojans have going for them. Oregon is the team everyone thought was supposed to be good this year in the Pac-12 but the defense just hasn't been there (that's how you lose to your not-very-good rival despite scoring 38 points). This one could easily go either way: USC is a pretty awful team during the first 59 minutes of gameplay but capable of Mario Kart computer player cheatingesque play in the crunchiest of crunch time. If Mario Cristobal is the hot coaching commodity everyone thinks he is, he should be able to find a way to game plan around this. Ducks finally find a way to close out the Trojans this season. Ore: 38--USC: 34

Schweinfurth: USC has to lose at some point. Every week they seem to squeak by an opponent who has them on the ropes. UCLA was a boneheaded kickoff away from beating them last week.  Oregon has been given a gift here and I do believe they will play like they have nothing to lose here. The close game bug finally bites the Trojans. OU: 42--USC: 41

SATURDAY

Big 12: Oklahoma Sooners vs. Iowa State Cyclones

Draper: So we have the #6 (what?) Cyclones playing...let's see...Oh crap, Oklahoma? In the Big 12 Title game? Smash the Sooners.  Oklahoma doesn't lose these games, and certainly not to Iowa freaking State.  While the Buckeyes have been penciled in as the B1G Champ every year, Clemson for the ACC, and Bama (sort of) for the SEC, OU has been the constant in Big 12 country.  I don't see that changing under Spencer Rattler.  OU returns to the NY6 and Iowa State says goodbye to Matt Campbell (welcome to the B1G).  OU: 38 -- ISU: 31
Hoying:  Alabama. Ohio State. Oklahoma. The three paragons of elite-level consistency in college football, and the three teams you'd be a fool to bet against in a conference championship game. Yes, Iowa State and Oklahoma already played this season. Yes, Iowa State won that game. But since that date, which anchored the midpoint of a weird three game stretch of mediocre play for the Sooners, Oklahoma has been on a tear, including an evisceration of the Oklahoma State team that beat Iowa State. Of course, Iowa State did even worse things to the Kansas State team that beat Oklahoma, but the Clones haven't been as sharp overall as the Sooners, struggling against Baylor and needing a big comeback to handle Texas. I don't think they're racking up another 37 points against OU this week. It's a terrible irony that the Sooners have the defense this year to make some noise in the Playoff, and they won't be making an appearance despite avenging their loss to the Cyclones this Saturday. Better luck next year (to all of us). OU: 35--ISU: 27

Schweinfurth: It is hard to beat a team twice in a year (that goes for this and the game below). Oklahoma has looked better, but not great. On paper, the Sooners are the superior team and Matt Campbell has done some amazing things with the Cyclones. I just can't see ISU winning two against the Oklahoma. OU: 45--ISU: 35

ACC: Clemson Tigers vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Draper: Will this game go as everyone expects now that Trevor Lawrence has returned? Yes, I think so.  Clemson hasn't lost in the regular season lately so I'm guessing this is revenge.  I have not bought in to Notre Dame this year regardless of the record.  This has been to my detriment at times, but I don't see the Irish pulling off another win against the Orange giant.  Clemson seems to have taken a step back from the past few years, but I wonder if they're just slow playing until the playoff.  Trevor Lawrence has certainly reminded us why he is almost a lock to be a Jet next year.  Notre Dame still backs into the playoff, but Clemson lays the wood.  Clem: 38 -- ND: 24
Hoying: Is it just me, or does there seem to be a lack of intrigue in this year's conference championship games? Yeah, maybe it's because the only ones that really matter are the Big Ten and the ACC (Bama is going to the Playoff either way and Florida is not), but it seems like the conventional wisdom has picked a clear winner in most of the games. Bama. Buckeyes. OU. And...Clemson. Is this warranted? Yeah, Notre Dame needed everything in the bag to get by Clemson the first time...in OT...at home...with Lawrence out, but the Irish have been playing really good football this year. Better even than in 2018, where they went undefeated against the Revenge Tour and a bunch of "meh"s before getting blasted by Clemson 2016 Fiesta Bowl style. Clemson is in danger of losing its hat seeing how it's precariously hanging on an early blowout win over a Miami team that was just badly exposed last week against North Carolina. These teams may be just as equally matched as their prior clash would indicate. But never underestimate the revenge factor. Notre Dame was clearly feeling it under the lights in South Bend after the humiliation they suffered at the Tigers' hands in the Playoff, and now Clemson is clearly annoyed that they've been knocked out of the driver's seat in the ACC for the first time since the days of Famous Jameis. If anybody can craft disrespekt out of nothing, it's Dabo, and despite the fact that everybody and their momma is picking Clemson to win this weekend, you can bet the Tigers are going to play with their hair on fire, salivating at the prospect of facing the Buckeyes for the third time in the last five years. Good luck against Alabama, Notre Dame. You're going to need it. Clem: 31--ND: 30

Schweinfurth: To be honest, this game doens't move the meter for me. I don't think Notre Dame is this world beater everyone has made them out to be. Ian Book is kinda meh. After watching round 1, I believed this game would have been different if Trevor Lawrence was allowed to play. We finally get to see it this week, and I'm not sure it will be very close. Unfortunately, that just means we have to listen to Dabo run his mouth for two more weeks. Clem: 35--ND: 21

SEC: Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Florida Gators

Draper: I feel a little like a broken record, but in college football, the rich keep getting richer.  Death, taxes, and Bama.  Florida has been a surprising good team this year that absolutely crapped the bed last week.  Can the coaches get them to believe in the outside shot at a playoff berth? Probably not, but who knows.  On the other hand, Bama has been otherworldly this year. They've steamrolled every contender and I don't think this changes.  While Kyle Trask may have been the Heisman frontrunner, I think Mac Jones steals it in the SEC Championship.  Quarterback on the best team? Seems like a recipe for success.  Ala: 38 -- Florida: 24
Hoying: I'm not here to downplay Alabama's performance this season, but when was the last time this defense was really tested? Not against Georgia: this was back when the Dawgs still thought Stetson Bennett was a viable option. Really, the only good offense the Tide has faced was Ole Miss back in their third game, and they got absolutely lit up for 647 yards and 48 points. If that Tide defense shows up in this one, we could be looking at a long overtime battle as neither offense ever leaves the field except via the end zone. The problem is, if the Gators fail to hold serve even once, the Alabama offense won't do them the courtesy of stumbling back. There's no offense in the nation more potent than Alabama's, and Florida just showed last week that they're even capable of giving up big points to bad teams, too. When I made by midseason Heisman prediction in favor of Mac Jones, it was in anticipation of Alabama going nuclear in this matchup and Kyle Trask falling a step behind. I originally thought this would be another Bama by a million battle, but I think Florida can score enough in this one to keep it interesting. Then again, I thought Georgia would keep it close with LSU last year. Ala: 45--Fla: 34

Schweinfurth: I do believe Alabama is beatable, you just have to be able to score on every possession. So, think about Florida, do they have a defense that can stop Bama? I'm not sure. Can they score with Bama? I don't think so. Trask has been good, but Florida has been a one trick pony all year. Saban will find a way to slow Trask down and then game over man. Ala: 42--Fla: 28

AAC: Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ Cincinnati Bearcats

Draper: Cincinnati joins Indiana and Coastal Carolina on the list of those spurned by the committee.  I know they have no real wins of note, but they have looked good in their games thus far and remained unscathed (which is saying something).  Tulsa was seen as the contender to the Bearcats prior to the cancellation, but now we get to see the game fo realz.  Fickell has truly built something special this year, and it's a shame they can't show it on a bigger scale (until the NY6 maybe).  The Bearcats won't let up this week proving that they're Ohio's only BCS Ohio's 2nd team in the NY6.  UC: 40 -- Tulsa: 24
Hoying: You can't deny great matchups like this one forever. After round one between the cream of the AAC was delayed, and then delayed again, and then cancelled, round two (one?) is now finally upon us. The Bearcats have looked as impressive this season as any since their magical 2009 run that knocked on the door of the BCS National Championship Game, but no amount of style points will get them anywhere near the postseason tourney this year. That's bad news for the Golden Hurricane, who will likely have to take the brunt of the Bearcats' frustrations this week. Tulsa's a good team, with a pretty good defense, but Cincinnati has been playing at Power 5 level for the past few seasons under Fickell, who will likely find himself at Power 5 level in the near future (I would say please not anywhere maize and blue, but I'd still like Ryan Day's chances against him). Cincinnati is great in all phases of the game (you can nitpick the passing attempt if you're desperate to find something) and they won't trip up with their first major bowl appearance in over a decade in their sights. UC: 31--Tulsa: 16

Schweinfurth: Cincinnati should win this game. I want to take a moment to defend the Bearcats here. These guys got screwed, hard, by the committee this week. I have never understood the committee's decisions and the "eye" test drives me crazy. I do believe that we should go back to a BCS style system that involves computers, because then strenth of schedule and quality opponents are truly taken into account. That system would have the Bearcats ranked 5th. I'll be rooting for Fickell this weekend just so we can see how this really plays out and to lock up a NY6 bowl. UC: 35--Tulsa: 20

Big Ten: Northwestern Wildcats vs. THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: Not going to lie, I'm concerned about this WR COVID talk.  Without that concern, this could get ugly FAST.  With that concern.....it's probably going to get ugly FAST.  The Buckeyes have been taking the slings and arrows for the 'favorable' treatment they've received (don't let that distract you from a forfeiture against TTUN would still have landed the Bucks in Indy, or that 2 of the cancellations were beyond their control, or that the only other option is 3 win PSU, or that....) and I think they're sick of it.  This team wants to show they are here to win, and Northwestern has volunteered as tribute.  I've watched some NW games this year and have been thoroughly unimpressed.  The only prayer is for the wildcat (the scheme not the team) to pull off some monstrous BS.  They can't throw so the weak OSU secondary shouldn't be an issue.  On the other side, if the Buckeyes have all or at least most of the WR corps, it's bombs away.  Maybe this is an opportunity for the young ones to step up.  If Wilson and Olave do play, watch out.  Fields adds at least 5 scores and likely sits for the 4th quarter as the Buckeyes make their final statement.  NU: 10 -- OSU: 63

Hoying: Northwestern has been a nice story for the second year in the last three (what happened last year, though? yeesh), but we saw how that ended last time, and that was against the worst Ohio State defense in living memory. The Wildcat offense may not be as eye-gougingly awful as they were last year but they're still a far cry from the Northwestern spread monsters of the past. No, that offense lives on through Kevin Wilson and the Buckeyes' devastating attack which has yet to be slowed down, let alone stopped, this season. There's only one threat to this Buckeye team this Big Ten season, and it's not anything multicellular (or cellular at all, I suppose). It looks like Ohio State may be without Chris Olave for a while, which sucks, but it's not like they don't have plenty of gamebreaking weapons in the arsenal. It's true that most of them are untested, as Olave and Wilson have gobbled up the vast majority of Justin Fields' passing yards this season, but better to have to break in new guys against Northwestern than Clemson or Alabama. The Cats have a nice defensive scheme that they've been able to ride to success this season. Problem is that it's too turnover-dependent, and I think Fields has learned his lesson after the Indiana debacle (during which he managed to rack up 300 yards and 2 TDs anyway). Plus, as we learned in East Lansing, if all else fails, just line up and bash them over and over with Teague and Sermon, sprinkling in a healthy dose of Fields (as long as it's a dose of healthy Fields) to keep them honest. Northwestern cannot score enough points to hang with Ohio State. The end. On to the Rose Bowl (wherever that is). NU: 13--OSU: 45

Schweinfurth: Can Northwestern score enough to keep up with Ohio State. The answer to that is emphatically no. Northwestern is a good comeback story from last year, and they will be a tough out. Pat Fitzgerald teams are always tough teams, but this game was something like 56-7 last year. Ohio State didn't lose enough talent on offense and the Wildcats didn't gain enough offense for me to be overly worried. If the rumors are true and Olave is out, it will be time for some of these other highly skilled wideouts to shine. Bucks win and on to the playoffs! NU: 17--OSU: 56

Week 15: We'll Meet Again

Standings:

1.) Draper 17-8 (1-6 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 16-9 (2-5 upset)
2.) Hoying 16-9 (1-6 upset)

We'll meet again
Don't know where
Don't know when
But I know we'll meet again some sunny day.

- The soundtrack to what Ohio State should have done to That Team Up North this week 

Well, Buckeye Nation, it looks like we'll need to wait until 2021 (please, Lord, no longer) for another chance to hang 100 on you know who. I'm as bummed as you are that we'll be missing out on what would've been the first version of The Game with MAC-like spread. And it's a darn shame that we'll probably never get to see Jim Harbaugh lose to Ohio State again. But, at least for the moment, there are a few sideshows still on the horizon for this weekend while the Bucks gear up for violet violence on Saturday next.

Georgia Bulldogs @ Missouri Tigers

Draper: It's nice the committee felt like another SEC team needed to be ranked.  Georgia has had an exceptionally disappointing year based on the expectations.  While they are likely the 2nd best team in the SEC East, getting blown out by Bama and Florida wasn't in the plan.  However, no one cares, because the team they're playing isn't a contender.  UGA has, for years, crapped the bed whenever a decent team came to town....and Mizzou isn't that.  Another SEC snoozefest as the Dawgs sleepwalk through a 'ranked' win. It will be interesting to see if Geogia has found their QB of the future in J.T. Daniels at least.  UGA: 31 -- Mizz: 17
Hoying: It's amazing how fast Georgia has fallen off the national radar, especially in a year in which so few teams are playing on any given weekend. Yeah, they lost big in both big boy games they've played this season but I remember once upon a time when Alabama - Georgia was supposed to be the game of the season, the first of three possible meetings this year, before everyone figured out that those descriptors were supposed to apply to Clemson - Notre Dame. So what has Georgia been doing since then? Churning through QBs trying to find any viable option they can. Problem is that neither Stetson Bennett nor JT Daniels is even approaching Jake Fromm-level competence. Guess it's just impossible to recruit good QB talent to Georgia. To compensate for this, Georgia is supposed to have the nation's best defense. They don't (another team we're picking this week does), but it's good enough to hold juggernauts like Mississippi State to 24 points so that the Dawgs can eke out a 7 point victory. I guess if I were Georgia I'd be worried, except they're playing an even more lifeless blob, Missouri, whose best win (depending on how you define "best") is either a 41-0 over hapless Vanderbilt or a 20-10 win over 4-6 Kentucky. Well, the Committee's much smarter than I am because they see something in the Tigers that merits a top 25 ranking even with 3 blowout losses (including one to Tennessee). The Tigers have a negative scoring differential on the season, which is a bad sign when you're playing a team that's expected to hold you to a negative score anyway. I wouldn't be surprised if Georgia lost this game, but I would be surprised if Missouri won. UGA: 24--Mizz: 13

Schweinfurth: I have not really watched much of Georgia since they were essentially eliminated from any title contention, SEC or otherwise. With that said, I haven't watched any of Mizzou because they just don't move the meter for me. I do think Georgia is the better team. UGA: 31--Mizz: 10

North Carolina Tar Heels @ Miami Hurricanes

Draper: The Top 10 Hurricanes..wait, what?...um...ok....take on the top 20 Tarheels (hold on, the ones that lost to the Noles?) in a ranked matchup that no one asked for.  This could be really interesting as Carolina has a tendency to light it up or faceplant (spin the wheel!) whereas, I forgot Miami was a thing after that drubbing by Clemson.  I think King for the Canes will be able to out duel the hit/miss UNC attack.  In addition, Miami's defense usually has a little more edge (at least they used to).  I'll rool with the Canes (gross) but I just. don't. care. UNC: 24 --Mia: 30
Hoying: There needs to be at least one fun game this week and I guess this is the best we can do. The Heels are still running their point-a-minute-and-a-half offense (offer not valid in the second half against Notre Dame). Does Miami have the offense to keep up? In a word, no, but the turnover chain might be able to cause enough havoc to keep the Canes in the game. Miami still ranks near the top of the nation in takeaways, and their BFFs the Noles were able to use an early pick 6 to help build a huge lead that Carolina couldn't climb. But I don't see it happening. Miami's been playing with fire for far too long this season. Heels win and both teams end up somehow ranked ahead of Indiana on Tuesday. UNC: 38--Mia: 34

Schweinfurth: UNC has been a very frustrating team to watch. They have great offensive talent, but it takes forever for them to get going. Miami is so turnover dependent and, if they can get enough early turnovers, can make this one interesting. I think this is close, but Mac Brown finally gets that big win this year. UNC: 42--Mia: 31

Wisconsin Badgers @ Iowa Hawkeyes

Draper: The hits just keep on coming.  If this isn't the quintessential 'punt to win' game, I don't know what is (shoutout to Drue Chrisman and his punter shade on TTUN).  Wisconsin has just looked terrible in their last two outings, but maybe that's because Northwestern and Indiana are good? Spoiler alert: I think IU is legit but not Northwestern.  Iowa has been quietly 'Kirk Ferentz-ing' another contract season.  The Hawkeyes have likely guaranteed another 4 years on Ferentz's contract with another 'pretty good' season, and the Badgers have been in free fall.  This is likely a battle of who cares...and I think the Hawks are more likely to be up for this one.  Take a nap....it might be more exciting.  UW: 10 -- Iowa: 17
Hoying: Did you enjoy watching Indiana and Wisconsin run back and forth across the 50 and punt from plus territory all day? Because things are about to get a whole lot worse. Small sample size disclaimer, but Wisconsin has produced the nation's best defense by far through four games. First in total defense, first in rushing defense, first in passing defense, second in scoring defense (by one point), you name it, the Badgers have mastered it. Granted, they've been playing incompetent offenses like Michigan, Northwestern, Illinois, and a Penix-less Indiana, but they've risen to the challenge every time. So why are they 2-2? Because in the hellscape that is 2020 Big Ten offense (you're excused, Ohio State), Wisconsin is making a sprint for the bottom, scoring a combined 13 points in their last two games (both losses, obviously). Will that be a problem this week? Oh, it's no big deal, they're only facing the team that hasn't given up 25 points in a game since 2018. Don't worry, the Hawkeyes have found a way to lose 5 games in that timeframe, because their offense doesn't work either. This game could be uglier than the 10-3 abomination the Hawkeyes put on last year in Ann Arbor. Look for Chris Spielman to really enjoy this one (maybe watching through the window with his "Sickos" sweater on). UW: 9--Iowa: 10 (five safeties)

Schweinfurth: Ahh, the B1G rock fight of the week. Wisconsin just hasn't looked right since losing to Northwestern. Iowa has figured out they can run people over to win. The Hawkeyes may be the second best team in the B1G, which isn't saying much. Iowa wins. UW: 7--Iowa: 10

Upset Special
Draper: Troy over Coastal Carolina

Hoying: Illinois over Northwestern
Schweinfurth: UCLA over USC