Week 3: Tape-leg

Standings:
1.) Schweinfurth 6-0 (0-2 upset)
1.) Seeberg 6-0 (0-2 upset)
3.) Hoying 5-1 (1-1 upset)
3.) Draper 5-1 (0-2 upset)

I can guarantee you, man, that none of these games is a tape-leg. Some of the players might have a piece of tape on their leg or their shoe, but their legs are not made of tape.

Anyway, college football scheduling gods, send us some good ones next week. You know, some good ones?

Iowa Hawkeyes @ Iowa State Cyclones

Draper: Gameday is in Ames this week....let that sink in.  That should tell you how crappy these games are this week.  I'm sure the CyHawk rivalry is really big for the 100 people in Iowa, but it's very difficult to get excited for a game who's rivalry trophy once had a guy giving corn to a child.  Is Iowa good? eh....maybe? They certainly took care of ....Rutgers.... Is Iowa State good? Probably not after a 3OT squeaker over Northern Iowa.  Who knows? Let's just hope Iowa trucks someone else on a national stage this time.  Iowa: 30 -- ISU: 17

Hoying: Riddle me this: Iowa State goes to triple overtime with Northern Iowa in the season opener, and stays ranked in the top 25. Then last week they don't play at all and fall out of the rankings. It doesn't really matter (early season polls are meaningless and the AP and Coaches' Polls are all meaningless, all the time), but it would have been nice to have at least one ranked matchup in the bucket of slop that is week 3. As stated above, Iowa State is bad, but they've been known to look clueless against lower competition and jump up and bite an Oklahoma or West Virginia. Oddly enough, they haven't done this to the Hawkeyes lately like they always did in the earlier 2000's, so are the Cyclones due? Probably not. Iowa dominated last week's game against Rutgers (I know, I know, Rutgers, but again, Northern Iowa), forcing turnovers and generally frustrating the hapless Scarlet Knight offense. Considering the 'Clones put up a whopping 13 on Northern Iowa before extra time started, I wouldn't be too worried were I Iowa. Iowa: 27--ISU: 10

Schweinfurth: Ahh, the CyHawk. One of the craziest rivalry games around. While this game can get interesting, this is one I will turn on late just to watch the insanity. It always seems that when Iowa feels like they have a great team, the Cyclones come out of nowhere and bag tag the Hawkeyes. As funny as it would be to see Iowa State leg drop Herky, I just don't see it happening. I'll take the coaching genius (and infinite time B1G coach of the year) of Kirk Ferentz's squad this year. Iowa: 24--ISU: 17

Seeberg:  This one is, oddly, even more difficult to predict than most early-season rivalry games.  The Cyclones were hot garbage for the better part of half a century but still played the usually respectable Hawkeyes well.  This year, both squads were expected to be pretty solid, and the black and yellow have held up their end of the bargain while ISU needed a lot of OT to beat an FCS opponent (yay abbreviations!).  The Cyclones get this one at home, and given the awful slate of games this week, even College Game Day will be there!  With two weeks to prepare this one should be another nail-biter, but the Hawkeyes should sneak out of Ames with the CyHawk Trophy again.  Iowa: 27--ISU: 24

Arizona State Sun Devils @ Michigan State Spartans

Draper: And not for the battle between one of college football's most outspoken coaches and one of the most boring.  I don't see much from MSU on the offensive side of the ball, but the defense has been great.  Arizona State is a bit of mess...and they're coming to East Lansing.  Look for Sparty to have a workmanlike win that no one will see or care about.  ASU: 10 -- MSU: 24

Hoying: Last year Sun Devil coach Herm Edwards scored his signature victory of the year in the desert, kicking a last second FG to send the Spartans home losers. This year? Don't count on it. ASU needed all 4 quarters to put away Sacramento State last week, and their red zone offense is just atrocious. At least the defense is working. But Michigan State's defense is working just as well, and they have something resembling an offense Lewerking as well. This one should be over quickly. ASU: 13--MSU: 24

Schweinfurth: What looks worse the Spartans' offense or those atrocious Oregon wannabe uniforms they wore last week. I think it's a toss up. MSU needed a full scale rehire on the offensive coaching staff and all they did was reshuffle the deck. I guess it's good that the Walrus isn't calling plays anymore? As much as the Spartan offence offends me, Dantonio's defenses are always legit. The PAC-12 is bad and ASU is toward the mid-bottom of that conference. It won't matter if Herm is playing to win the game, the Spartans should pull this out. Another loss to ASU and Dino's seat may start getting warm. ASU: 10--MSU: 20

Seeberg:  Despite their conference being a perennial dumpster fire the last few years, the ASU squad managed an upset of Sparty out west last year.  Lightning doesn't strike twice in a row, however, and western teams aren't much of a fan of traveling three time zones east.  I doubt this game will be aesthetically pleasing- especially if Sparty breaks out those nausea-inducing highlighter green pants (with a WHITE stripe...just...why??) again so I wouldn't flip over to this one.  Just watch the scoreboard on the bottom line and see Dantonio and Co. steadily pull away.  ASU: 17--MSU: 34

Florida Gators @ Kentucky Wildcats

Draper: Can the Wildcats do it again after slaying the UF beast? Sadly, they've lost a lot of talent but the Gators were a laughing stock vs. Miami...except for the D-line.  The Gator pass rush was tenacious and should get after Kentucky's QB (no I don't want to find his name).  Mark Stoops has the Cats believing but I think the talent on the other side will be too much, but I think it will be a little close for comfort.  Florida falls backwards into another shaky win and stays highly ranked for some reason.  UF: 13 -- UK: 10

Hoying: Finally, FINALLY, last year, after 31 years of futility, the Wildcats broke through against the Gators. What are they going to do to Dan Mullen in Gainesville if he starts 0-2 against the SEC's erstwhile joke team? Kentucky was Actually Pretty Good last year (you may remember them knocking off Penn State in the Citrus Bowl, lol) but they practically lost their entire offense with the departure of RB Benny Snell. Good thing Florida looks like poo this year, winning a sloppy opener against Miami leaving Gator fans to wonder if they'll ever find another competent QB again after the ascension of St. Tebow (and Will Grier getting run out of town on a rail). As time goes by, the stats tend to regress to the mean, and the mean in this series looks a lot more like 31 in a row for Florida than 2 in a row for Kentucky. UF: 27--UK: 24

Schweinfurth: Kentucky lost a lot off a decent 2018 team. Gone is Benny Snell and in comes??? Yea. Look last year was a miracle season for the Wildcats. Florida is coming to ruin that this year and put the basketball school back in their place. UF: 35--UK: 20

Seeberg:  So are either of these teams...crap, what's the word I'm looking for...good?  We know the Gators were supposed to be and the weight of expectations has not suited UF well the last several seasons down in Gainesville.  Meanwhile, UK lost approximately 94.3% of its offense after Benny Snell left, but what a year it was, beating Florida for the first time since the FIRST George Bush was VICE President.  The boys in blue will be charged up to start a new streak of their own, but they just don't have enough offensively to overcome a more talented Gator team.  Could be close, but a new streak begins nonetheless.  UF: 27--UK: 17

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Indiana Hoosiers

Draper: OSU played a nearly flawless game last week as we enter conference schedule a little early.  Weird stuff happens in Bloomington (not to cost the game, but to make it close) every once in awhile.That being said, I'm not terribly worried this year.  Michael Penix (IU's QB) may miss the game which would normally be a boon, but backup QBs have a tendency to come out and torch the Bucks.  Regardless, I don't see the Hoosier defense stifling Fields, Dobbins, and Co.  The WRs this year have been exceptional for the Bucks and I think the trend continues here.  The biggest question for the passing game will be if there is enough to go around (I think the Dobbins/Teague eats well this week).  OSU hasn't faced any adversity this year so there's always a chance, but I don't think this is the week.  Keep the train rolling.  OSU: 42 -- IU: 13

Hoying: The Buckeyes continue their slog against crappy out of conference opponents this week...wait, what? Another one of these? Didn't Ohio State go to Indiana to open the season two years ago? Oh well, here we go again. You may remember that game as JK Dobbins's coming out party. I mean, yeah, JT threw for 300 yards and 3 TDs, too, but the Buckeyes leaned heavily on Dobbins as he racked up 180 yards in his first game for the Scarlet and Gray. Expect to see more of that after last week's solid performance. You may also remember that 2017 game for the circus catches the IU receivers were making to pick on our secondary, showing the cracks in the Silver Bullet edifice that threatened to bring the whole house down last year. Expect to see less of that now that Greg Mattison and Al Washington spontaneously burst into existence this year to reshape the Buckeye D into something workable. Indiana has a new dual threat quarterback, which might give Buckeye fans nightmares to a few other showdowns with the Hoosiers in recent memory, but this game should follow a familiar script: IU comes out with a few surprises, catches the Buckeyes sleeping for a little while, then Dobbins or KJ Hill or Chase Young makes a huge play and the Bucks never look back. OSU: 34--IU: 20

Schweinfurth: It's always fun to return to where we started. Just ask JK Dobbins. What might make Dobbins scarier is this offense looks way more dangerous than the one he set Buckeye freshman rushing records two years ago. But enough about Dobbins, the Bullets look like an actual defense this year and not the Silver BBs of last year. Arnett still needs better ball awareness when thrown at, but has been serviceable for the most part. The linebacker play has been much, much better. It's amazing what happens when you don't have the backers' heads turned at the snap and they can locate the ball immediately. Indiana's starter is questionable, but the Hoosiers are the B1G chaos team. This is close for a half and then Chase Young breaks their will. OSU: 42--IU: 24

Seeberg:  Well, last week was phenomenal.  All of us here at Let's Go Bucks expected a closer contest and what we got was more akin to a no-contest.  Now this young Buckeye team hits the "road" for the first time (albeit in a stadium typically with more Buckeye than Hoosier fans) against IU.  Make no mistake, this IS your older brother's IU team.  They have two talented QBs, several respectable offensive weapons, a bowling ball of a running back...and a defense?  Dobbins and Fields need to rule the day at high 11 AM central time.  A heavy dose of J.K. will open up play-action passes and, more importantly, keep Fields from getting field turf all over him.  Running to set up the pass sounds, well, Tressel-esque and boring, but Ryan Day actually prefers touchdowns to field goals (see: 6 TDs, 0 FG attempts last week), so in Day's hands it's actually an effective philosophy.  Keep everything in front as a defense, shut down red zone trips, and get out of recently-hairy Bloomington with a solid conference W.  OSU: 38--IU: 17

Upset Special

Draper: Temple over Maryland

Hoying: Stanford over Central Florida

Schweinfurth: Florida State over UVA

Seeberg: Pitt over Penn State

Grading the Bucks: Week 2--Cincinnati

I always love grading a performance like this.  This will be a short writeup due to the dominance we saw on Sat.  I hope that Cincy is as good as I thought (top tier of Group of 5) because that would mean great things for this Buckeye team.  Please don't faceplant, Fick.

Offense: A
Co-MVPs: Justin Fields (QB), J.K. Dobbins (RB)
Fantastic play all day.  I was pleasantly surprised to see some life on the O-line.  They were pushing people around and creating holes all over the place.  Fields was very sharp and threw the ball away most of the time needed.  Dobbins neared 150 on the ground and was workmanlike.  On top of all this, I think receiving corps is sneakily one of the best in the country.  As Fields matures mentally, look out.  Here's hoping the O-line can keep this level of intensity.

Defense: A+
MVP: Chase Young (DE)
Shutting out a decent team like UC even with the 2 gifts in the redzone is a monster feat.  Keeping an opponent, any opponent, scoreless through 60 minutes is very difficult and this defense got it done.  Most of us already knew what to expect out of Chase Young and he continues to impress.  Malik Harrison has brought some nice linebacker play that we haven't seen in years.  The secondary still has some holes/room to improve, but the growth from last year's train wreck is amazing.

Special Teams: A
MVP: Chase Young (DE)
Oh so close to another A+ but another random kickoff out of bounds for no reason.  Chase Young with the monster block to preserve the shutout early and keep little brother in their place.  Other than the kick out of bounds, I can't remember anything else (which usually means a nice showing by special teams.

Coaching: B+
Ah...the lone blemish.  One would think that you can't possibly downgrade a staff whose squad thoroughly dominated a decent opponent, but I can't get over the 3rd/4th down playcall early in the game.  The decision to go on 4th was fine (wonderful even).  The decision to throw for the endzone on 3rd down was fine.  Not my choice, but I can respect it given that you are going for it on 4th.  Then, the sweep run out wide on 4th....yuck.  The O-line was controlling the point of attack early on in the game.  To get a foot, a sneak, QB power, RB dive, anything up the gut was a virtual guarantee (flashback to "give it to Hyde" in the 2013 B1G Championship...).  I don't like when the top dogs get cute.  Exert your will and dominate.

Overall: A
Nothing wrong with a huge shutout win over the in state...other team.  People outside of OSU won't care, but this was an incredibly positive sign for the Buckeyes moving forward.

Week 2: Nasty Boys

Standings:
1.) Draper 2-0 (0-1 upset)
1.) Hoying 2-0 (0-1 upset)
1.) Schweinfurth 2-0 (0-1 upset)

1.) Seeberg 2-0 (0-1 upset)

FINALLY some games of import: Little Brother comes knocking for the first time in 5 years, and two SEC teams deign to play true road games against elite opponents. But first...

Syracuse Orange @ Maryland Terrapins

Draper: Does the hurt that Maryland put on Howard last week mean anything? What about what Syracuse did to Liberty with a coach literally coaching from a hospital bed in the press box? Short answer: no.  Long answer: noooooooooooo. I really don't put any stock in last week's results given the competition.  The fact that these defenses have given up a total of 0 points is kinda cool, I guess.  I have slightly more faith in Dino Babers than anything happening in College Park.  I really don't care about this game or know anything of value.  I'll slight lean to the Orange.  Why? I don't know.  SU: 28 -- Mary: 20

Hoying: You may laugh, but in each of the last two seasons, Maryland has risen up and bitten an early season "why are they ranked" team. 2 years ago their vanquished foe stumbled along to a .500 season, while last year they ended up winning a New Year's Six game. Did you remember that both times, this sub-Maryland team was the Texas Longhorns? More on them later. This year the Terps got to pound on some poor guy named Howard to the tune of 79-0 to warm up for this one. Meanwhile the Orange were ganging up on some poor team with no conference and their coach in a hospital bed (in the stadium for some reason). What did we learn from those contests? Nothing, they were playing Howard and Liberty. But somebody must know something, because this game opened at Syracuse -5 and has since swung all the way around to Maryland -2. The Terrapins still have that tiny nightmare Anthony McFarland that burned us for 300 yards or so last year, and Syracuse is still kinda fake good. Go B1G or go home (maybe just go home). SU: 24--Mary: 28

Schweinfurth: I'm doing the abbreviated version of picks this week. We'll go Maryland at home. Just have that feeling. SU: 28--Mary: 35

Seeberg:  Is this a surprisingly intriguing September game?  Absolutely.  Will it matter in the grand scheme of college football?  Not one damn bit.  Still, remarkable that the Terrapins could have dropped 100 on their opponent last week had they felt the need.  Both squads pitched shutouts last week but the Orange offense looked, well, lousy in comparison to McFarland and Co.  The fact that Maryland is actually favored against a ranked team under ANY circumstance is eye-opening.  It's another September to remember for the TMNT squad before collapsing in the B1G as per usual.  SU: 20--Mary: 26

Texas A&M Aggies @ Clemson Tigers

Draper: The spread in this game is insane.  I think it opened at 17...against a top 12 foe.  That's nuts.  Even with all the hype surrounding the Aggies this year and how they're going to be the one to knock off Bama (I'll believe it when they have Johnny Football again), I can't see Clemson dropping this one.  Clemson is just a machine at this point.  While TAMU is the biggest roadblock on their schedule (by a wide margin), I don't see this being particularly interesting.  I don't foresee a blowout, but I also don't think it will be in doubt.  Trevor Lawrence keeps the train rolling and Clemson continues the run of dominance. TAMU: 24--Clem: 42

Hoying: What's the opposite of rat poison? Whatever it is, that's what's being fed to the Tide this year as everyone has hopped off their bandwagon and set sail with Dabo and the Tigers. And if Clemson stomps everyone's favorite September SEC team on Saturday it'll really ramp up, and before you know it you'll get idiots with blogs writing about how Clemson is unstoppable and going to beat everyone they play by a million. And why not? Clemson QB and RB Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne haven't gone anywhere. The Clemson defense is still no slouch, holding the new-look Georgia Tech offense to a measly 14 points last week. The only reason this game was close last year was because the Tigers took their foot off the gas and the 12th Man spurred the Aggies to a furious late comeback that came up just short. I know it's a little early in the year for the standard Texas A&M collapse but any crazy fantasies of greatness will need to put on hold for another season. TAMU: 17--Clem: 31

Schweinfurth: I don't expect this to be the great game it was last year. A&M got tons of juice from their crowd. The 12th man can't help on the road. TAMU: 13--Clem 35

Seeberg:  Do my eyes deceive me?  Are TWO top 15 SEC teams playing TRUE road games against two OTHER top 15 teams?  Pardon me while I visit my optometrist.  TAMU heads to Death Valley in a remarkably entertaining week 2 matchup.  Extreme talent everywhere in this one, particularly on both sides of the line of scrimmage for both teams.  Clemson lost approximately 18,394 defensive linemen to the draft last year and still boast a top 10 D-line unit nationally.  The Aggies feel just a skill position player or two short of competing for a title this year, however, and if you aren't competing for the golden lipstick, you aren't good enough to hang with Clemson for four quarters.  Sorry Jimbo.  TAMU: 23--Clem: 38

Louisiana State Tigers @ Texas Longhorns

Draper: Where's Tessitore to proclaim Texas's "backness".  I heard the pundits already chiming that a win here would indicate that Texas is indeed back...but I've heard that before....many times.  Sam Ehlinger is a very good QB that runs Herman's system to a tee, but the defense of LSU is crazy good as per usual.  Joe Burrow leads the Tigahs into Darrell K Royal which....doesn't frighten anyway.  On top of that, Big Game Tom Herman seems to win big games and crap away a stupid one midseason (see: Urban Meyer?).  This would be a marquee Texas win, but I just don't see it.  It will be close, but y'all's Tigah Bait.  Coach O stays running high before Bama causes the traditional crash and burn.  LSU: 31--Tex: 27

Hoying: This is the part when I'm supposed to talk about how I'm pulling for LSU because that's where Joe Burrow ended up. That's not going to happen. You leave this program, you're dead to me. Had he stayed, perhaps we wouldn't have had to turn to a transfer of our own (though Mr. Fields seems to be working out just fine so far). Digressions aside, there's no denying that Joey Carpetbagger has provided an instant upgrade to the usual slop behind center we've been accustomed to seeing at LSU ever since Matt Flynn left. The defense is as good as ever (74 points in 7OT losses notwithstanding) and LSU would be primed to make a run at an SEC title if not for, well, you know. Buuuuuut, it's Texas Tom, in a big game, as a home dog. The Longhorns have their own experienced QB, Sam Ehlinger, and one of the better defenses in the Big 12 (lol). The SEC's early season meltdown ramps up to 3.6 roentgen (not great, not terrible). LSU: 27--UT: 30

Schweinfurth: I'm not sold on either of these two teams. The bonus for LSU is that Texas plays Big 12 defense. LSU: 35--UT: 31

Seeberg:  Ah yes the annual tradition:  The "is Texas back?" September game.  Mind you, they lost to the vaunted Maryland Terrapins (see above) two years in a row, so the answer has been, rather emphatically, NO.  They do get the TIgers at home, however, but LSU's typically dreadful offense is on the verge of respectability and, well, the Big 12-2 all but ignores defense in general.  A real road test for a good SEC squad is nearly unheard of, but with a barely capable offense, that should be enough in the conference filled with kids who played 7-on-7 as much as full-tilt high school football.  Play that Tiger Rag.  LSU: 27--UT: 23

Cincinnati Bearcats @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: Is it finally time for Ohio's Only BCS Team from 2010* (*Warranty void in Tennessee) to unseat the big dog in the state? That's a no from me dawg.  OSU showed a few chinks in the armor last week, but the effort level after the opening barrage was not the same (to be expected).  Fickell returns to the Shoe with one of the top Group of 5 teams in the nation (perhaps the best?) but if you come at the King, you'd better not miss.  Against these athletes, OSU should be able to establish dominance on the ground with ease.  Fields needs to be quicker on the trigger and all will be fine (in fairness, the receivers were solid last week).  Defense will provide the real information as I really don't know what to expect.  Larry Johnson always has the D-line at a supreme level, but what will the secondary look like against a team with a pulse.  I'm excited for the chance to see it.  I think this will be a little closer than Buckeye Nation would like, but we didn't cover many spreads last year (except perhaps TTUN).  Buckeyes earn a hard fought solid win and Fields takes a step forward.  UC: 24-- OSU: 38

Hoying: Welcome back, wannabes. I always look forward to this matchup because each time this century the Buckeyes face the Bearcats we always give them the stiff-arm on the way to a title run (except you, 2004, shhhhh). And since the 2002 heart attack that kicked off a 2-year parade of heart-stopping wins, the Ohio State has been able to dispatch the Nasty Nati with relative ease. Oh, but this time there's a former Buckeye national champion defensive coordinator taking the 'Cats into battle? Didn't matter much in 2004 or 2006 when Mark Dantonio was doing the same, and we've seen his ability to give our beloved Bucks fits when commanding a competent team. Maybe Fick has it in him to frustrate the Buckeyes as well, but it won't be this Saturday with this squad. The Buckeye defense seems to have turned a corner and have too many weapons at their disposal for an admittedly decent Cincinnati D to keep at bay. Justin Fields isn't Dorian Thompson-Robinson, and the Buckeye O line isn't quite the sieve that UCLA trotted out last week. Enjoy Fickell while you can, Cincinnati. Either he'll crash and burn and you'll fire him, or he'll succeed like every other Bearcat coach in the last 15 years (except you, Senator Tuberville) and be on to bigger and better things. Still sUCks to be a stepping stone. UC: 17--OSU: 34

Schweinfurth: So I watched more of UC's game last week than the Buckeyes (sorry was out of town). I am not sold on their QB. From what I did see, the Silver Bullet secondary looks up to par. I see this staying close into the third quarter, but the Bucks are just better all over the field. UC: 14--OSU: 38

Seeberg:  If you'll kindly check last week's predictions, you'll note I had the final margin of victory dead-on, and barely missed the actual point totals themselves.  Though it's better to be lucky than good, the game ended essentially where I figured it would.  A decent-looking-if-somewhat-vanilla offense that flashed brilliance at times but still struggled to dominate via the run like ANY Ohio State team should be able to do against inferior competition.  A decent-looking-if-somewhat-vanilla defense that surrendered some points late with inexperienced backups in, but also flashed brilliance nonetheless (how Chase Young was only credited with 1.5 sacks simply boggles the mind).  The O-line clearly has the most room for improvement, but unfortunately for UC, so does there's with two freshmen starting right next to each other.  Fickell's D is too good to let the game get out of hand, but OSU is too talented to not salt it away late with the help of a turnover or two.  Enjoy Fickell while you have him, Bearcats fans, because when he takes the Minnesota gig in 2 years' time you'll be back to those 5-7 seasons you're so fond of and with which you're quite familiar.  UC: 13-- OSU: 31

Upset Special

Draper: Nevada over Oregon

Hoying: Colorado over Nebraska

Schweinfurth: Army over M*ch*g@n

Seeberg: Ohio U. over Pitt

Grading the Bucks: Week 1--Florida Atlantic

Talk about a tale of 2 games.  The first only lasted 8 min and 10 secs, but man was it explosive.  Plenty of things need shoring up, but there were positives as well.

Offense: B-
Grade seems low but I have my reasons.  First, the grade out of the gate was an A+++.  Everything was clicking beautifully.  The receivers looked crisp, Fields was decisive, and it was just plain easy.  Much of this was tempered in my mind with the fact that FAU was absolutely horrible.  Missed assignments, falling down...it was a comedy of errors.  Then reality set it.  For his first start Fields did pretty well but he needs to make quicker decisions.  When confident in the throw, he delivered a nice ball on time.  Even when Victor broke completely open, he made sure to hit the receiver when many QBs get excited and overthrow.  After the 4 TD barrage wore off, he had happy feet in the pocket (more to come) and simply held the ball too long.  It seemed that he expected the receivers to always be completely open like the beginning and he waited for it.  The major point of concern (other than the fumbles) was some lackluster offensive line play.  It was clear early on in the game that FAU was physically overmatched.  There was no reason for them to get ANY pressure based on the athletes, especially when not sending extra guys, and yet Fields was consistently diving out of the pocket.  The push in the running game was also missing.  The line play is very concerning moving forward.

Defense: A-
While all this is taken with a grain of salt (see above that FAU is horrible), the defense played quite well (as they should have).  The dink-and-dunk was the only success as the QB had to get rid of the ball very quickly due to the pressure.  Any time you can enter halftime holding the offense to negative yards, you have to be doing something right.  The second half was a bit more lackadaisical, but that's what happens in games like this.  The secondary was out of position a bit, but it was tough to truly gauge the improvement/lack thereof of the defense against this opponent.  Given the circumstances, I'm pleased.

Special Teams: B+
FAU did a nice job avoiding McCall which led to him getting into trouble on the sidelines (and replaced).  I thought it was just nice directional punting.  No missed kicks or problems in the return game.  There's also a little shake in the return game which I think will be important in the future.

Coaching: A-
Ryan Day and Co. dialed up a brilliant beginning to the era.  Can't fault much in the on field coaching, but I certainly hope the drop off in performance isn't the norm.  When the Owls started to fight back, I was a little concerned with the response of the Scarlet and Gray.  Instead of shutting the upstarts down, they played content.  A mental shift needs to occur to prevent this in all games.  The killer instinct must be at full capacity to compete with the best.  I think the coaching staff is going to keep them ready, but the laziness was noticed.

Overall: B+
Line play, line play, line play.  Perhaps the style is a more strategic attack rather than a physically dominant one, but can't it be both?  Fields needs to maintain confidence in his arm and receivers.  I've seen many a talented QB wait for the wide open receiver.  In today's game, risks are a necessity.  I trust in the offense and the offensive staff, but the growth needs to continue.  As for the defense, I'm still waiting for the next test.  I think Cincy will provide a nice measuring stick next week.

Week 1: Joey Freshwater Rides Again

Hooray! The offseason is finally...already over at the time we're writing this, thanks to a bizarre schedule putting two actual games on the schedule a week before games begin in earnest. And what oddities they were, especially Hawaii's thrilling last-second tackle of Arizona's Khalil Tate a yard before he was able to dive into the end zone to tie the game. I'm sure that finish didn't trigger PTSD in any of the Let's Go Bucks prognosticators. Looking to this week's games, it's hard to tell how significant they are without knowing how these teams will end up, but the slate overall looks pretty weak. Enjoy an appetizer before a couple of more interesting games next week.

Oregon Ducks vs. Auburn Tigers

Draper: Enter the rematch of the 2011 BCS National Championship, but the better quarterback is in the green this time.  There is a ton of hype around Justin Herbert and the Ducks breaking back into resurgence once more, but do we really trust the Pac12 to do anything? Auburn is completely green at QB but the defense is stout.  Usually, early season matchups favor the defense (see Bama for the last 10 years) as the offenses haven't figured it out.  Add that to the fact that it's another SEC vs. Pac12 (of Big 12 or B1G or ACC) kickoff classic in their backyard (kind of) and I feel like I've seen this before.  Start those annoying SEC chants while it's really just Pac12 being Pac12. Ore: 17--Aub: 24

Hoying: I hate week one write-ups because I never have anything relevant to say about either team, having not seen them in action yet. So let's dig into some not-so-ancient history instead. These teams have played exactly once, in the 2011 BCS National Championship Game. In that matchup, Oregon went blow for blow with Cam Newton before Auburn kicked a last second go-ahead FG from the 1 yard line. Oregon hasn't been close to a national championship since (yes, I know what you're thinking, and no, no they weren't). The Ducks are on a bit of an upswing, sniffing a double digit win season last year and winning (I guess, technically) the Redbox Bowl over Michigan State. Meanwhile Auburn has continued their steady diet of "I guess they're pretty good" under Gus Malzahn after capturing lightning in a bottle in 2013. Neither of these teams is a threat to make any real noise this year. I should just go back and write about Miami vs. Florida instead and pretend I don't already know the result. Ore: 20 -- Aub: 28

Schweinfurth: I am really not sure what to think of this game. Personally, I don't have high hopes for either of these two teams. Yes, the Ducks have a good QB in Justin Herbert but I am just not sold with the program. It's been in a tailspin since Chip Kelly stopped receiving recruiting help bolted for the NFL. Auburn is in much the same place, I just don't believe in the program, especially since they stopped paying for transfer QBs via church donations Alabama decided to turn into the program of death in the SEC. Auburn has a decent defense and this is a long trip for the Ducks to make east. I'll take Auburn at home, but it'll be close and sloppy. Ore: 21--Aub: 24

Seeberg:  Though obviously things are always hazy at the start of the season, this matchup seems to pit strength vs. strength.  Oregon returns a top 5 QB who would've been selected in the first round had he gone to the draft last season, but Auburn has a large and talented D-line that anchors a solid group.  Oregon looked impressive at the start of last year before an all-time collapse against Stanford that likely sent shockwaves through the rest of the Ducks' season and they also struggled on the road.  Assuming any/all of that carries over season to season, the second best team in Alabama will get a win to make them feel relevant for a few extra weeks while the Pac-12 goes all Happy Gilmore during his hockey tryouts.  "Better luck next year".  Ore: 18 -- Aub: 27

Florida Atlantic Owls @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: The Lane Train comes rumbling in to the Shoe on Alumni Band day with hopes of upsetting the new head coach in Columbus. Remember when it seemed like Kiffikins might have a team 2 years ago and he was prepping to explode on the scene? And then he faceplanted? That was a fun year.  Some things change but many things stay the same the world keeps on spinnin'.  I'm excited for the Ryan Day era and I think the Bucks fire out of the shoot early.  The biggest question is whether the defense is better than the soggy turd we saw next year.  Even a slight improvement would make a HUGE difference.  Fields has some struggles in his first action, but it doesn't matter as Dobbins steals the show as the Bucks continue the nation's longest opening day winning streak. FAU: 20 -- OSU: 55

Hoying: Whew, thank goodness we finally know who the starting QB will be for our beloved Bucks. Not that it really matters; it's an Ohio State QB running a Ryan Day offense against a Group of Five team. Justin's going to have a Fields day with that setup. No, the real worry remains on the other side of the ball. After fielding the worst Buckeye defense in a generation, how will Coach Day respond? Will we see something resembling a linebacker this year? Will the DBs see a ball before the WR leaps over them and snags it? New Co-DC Jeff Hafley says that turnovers will be a focus this year. Which, as we learned in 2006 and 2016, works really great until it doesn't. What of our opponent? Lane Kiffin burst onto the scene at FAU in 2017 and finished with a 10 game winning streak and a bowl victory. Then they missed out on the postseason entirely last year. So, who knows? All we can say is that despite the lack of premier programs filling out OSU's nonconference slate this year, at least we get a couple of interesting coaches to visit the Shoe (Coack Fick makes his return next week). Buckeye fans probably remember Coach Kiffin best from his inexplicable strategy as Alabama's OC of not feeding the ball to Derrick Henry when he was gashing us in the 2015 Sugar Bowl. Don't expect this game to be that close. FAU: 17--OSU: 48

Schweinfurth: From all of the press conferences and staff retention/hires Ryan Day has made, I think Ohio State got the right guy. You can tell Day has a very sharp and quick mind when it comes to offensive football. Now did he make the right hires on defense? I think so. From all accounts, it sounds as if the linebackers won't be playing as stand up linemen this year. This is probably the most important change. I'm not going to say the Bullets are back until they aren't getting gashed but there are tons of athletes and letting them play free will help for sure. The FAU Fighting Freshwaters Owls will be a good test for this defense. Not that they will win, but Kiffin will stretch the field and force the Bucks to be sound. I think the offense will be fine. The o-line is talented but unproven. Watch out if these guys are nasty and pave the way for a motivated Dobbins. I expect Fields to run a bit, but I'm sure he's on a pitch count this week with regards to hits. Let's have some fun and get back into football mode. Go Bucks! FAU: 20--OSU: 42

Seeberg: Ah, sweet sweet, well, almost fall.  Another 7.5 months without college football has come to a close.  Don't let the Miami vs. Florida ratings fool anyone into thinking those two programs are nationally relevant again, we all just wanted to scratch that itch and get our fix.  Our beloved Buckeyes kick off the season against what is likely an underrated FAU squad, which is remarkable given their headline-inducing (or producing) head coach.  Obviously what's on every Buckeye fans' mind is two-fold:  What do we have in Justin Fields, and can the defense be, you know, NOT awful this year please?  Like gave-up-half-a-hundred-to-Maryland awful? *shudders*.  The answer won't be known right away, but the last time we started an unknown at QB was J.T. Barrett in 2014.  That seemed to work out, eh?  Personally I figure if Dobbins gets 23-28 touches per game and our D-line can give Chase Young even a handful of 1-on-1 chances we will be more than okay.  Nothing overly flashy, nothing all that bad, just a solid W and the chance to go 2-0.  Welcome back everybody!  FAU: 17 -- OSU: 41 

Upset Special

Draper: USF over Wisconsin

Hoying: Liberty over Syracuse

Schweinfurth: Northwestern over Stanford

Seeberg:  Eastern Washington over Washington

Week 14: Ok. Cool. Hook Em!

Standings:
1.) Draper 41-14 (2-11 upset)
2.) Hoying 38-17 (2-11 upset)
3.) Schweinfurth 34-21 (5-8 upset)
4.) Seeberg 33-22 (3-10 upset)

"Who is Number One?"
"You are Number Six."
"I am not a number. I am a free man!"

- The Prisoner

We all know who Number One is (by a million) but the Buckeyes find themselves at Number Six, with one week to go and only one team ahead guaranteed to lose. Come Sunday morning, all of college football nation will be looking to the Committee for information and speculating about whose side they're on (but that would be telling), and no matter how desperately the teams in the playoff hunt want one of those four coveted spots, at least one of them won't get it. Let's hope that by hook or by crook, the Buckeyes will.

FRIDAY

Pac-12: #17 Utah Utes vs. #11 Washington Huskies
Draper:  The Pac12 has been a dumpster fire of mediocrity.  Out of the fire has emerged the preseason favorite Huskies in a very odd and unsuspected return to the top.  No real reason to think the Utes will take care of the heavily favored Huskies in their 1st Pac12 Championship appearance (surprising that this is the first rodeo for Utah).  Jake Browning has at least one massive brainfart a game, but that won't be enough to keep the Huskies from a Rose Bowl berth.  UU: 13--UW: 30
Hoying: Last year, conference championship weekend pitted 7 of the top 8 teams against each other in 4 huge battles (also TCU was there), while the Pac-12 was off in the corner eating paint chips. This year it's even worse; neither of these teams is sniffing a playoff spot, and more disgustingly, it's a rematch! Time to break out the How Pointless? meter once again, wherein I weigh in on just how unnecessary the contest at hand is.
How Pointless? As pointless as last year, which is to say, Super Pointless. Washington smooshed Utah back in September and went on to finish a game ahead of the Utes in conference record while playing in the much tougher division. The first time these teams met, Washington RB Myles Gaskin ran wild, and after seeing him blitz WSU in the blizzard last week, I'd expect him to do it again. UU: 17--UW: 27
Schweinfurth: I really haven't watched a lot of Pac-12 games this year because having two kids 3 and under plus "Pac-12 After Dark" is a really bad mix. With that said, I have tried to pay attention mostly because of what Washington State was trying to pull off. The Huskies put an end to that in Pullman last week. Look, Utah is a pretty good team that has been boosted by playing in a really crappy division. Washington was supposed to be a playoff team again. With that in mind I'll take the Huskies. UU: 13--UW: 35
Seeberg: Wait, Utah is in the top 20?  Definitely missed that.  In any event, it's been an odd year for the Huskies, as most would say they have underachieved, a rare feat for any Chris Petersen squad.  They did manage to salvage their season by beating their in-state rivals in the Apple Cup Blizzard Bowl last week.  Most teams' primary goal is to win their conference, however, and that goal is still squarely in sight.  Though roughly 156% pointless when it comes to the playoff, it's still a game worth winning, and I expect the Huskies to play like it.  UU: 20--UW: 34


SATURDAY  


Big 12: #14 Texas Longhorns vs. #5 Oklahoma Sooners
Draper:  Let's be honest, this is the only real game that a)matters and b) people expect a competitive game.  Rematches usually favor the team that lost the first matchup so point Sooners.  I have seen the Sooners in a few of their recent games.  Their offense is incredibly dynamic but MAN does that defense suck.  Texas isn't much different (see Big 12).  Honestly, it will likely be another Red River Shootout (fine me, Big12) and that's likely going to favor the Sooners offense even though the Longhorns pulled out the last second win with Dicker the Kicker. I'll be rooting hard for the burnt orange but I think they come up just short after breaking all the scoreboards in Jerry World. Murray cements his Heisman runner-up status and the Sooners keep their hopes alive (to be crushed by Bama).  UT: 48--OU: 55
Hoying: How Pointless? Moderately pointless by Big 12 standards. The Big 12 championship game will always be pointless since the conference plays a complete round robin (the only way it wouldn't be pointless would be another round robin of 3 or more teams tied at the top) but at least this year is interesting in that the team with the better record lost to the other team. It's really hard to beat the same team twice in one season (stupid 1976 Rose Bowl) and reeeallly hard to upset the same team twice in one season. Texas didn't really outplay OU the first time; they got the lucky bounces and, to their credit, made the most of them. That being said, all the pressure is, once again, on the team in crimson. Texas is ahead of schedule, and a win vs. a loss is nothing from a bowl placement perspective: they're going to the Sugar Bowl either way (unless Oklahoma somehow wins and misses the Playoff). A Big 12 title and a win over your hated rival isn't nothing, but Oklahoma will have one eye over their shoulder at the charging Buckeyes and the rest of hell that could break loose should the Longhorns prevail. I am loath to pick against Texas Tom in any big games, as the Horns always overperform in these situations, but Oklahoma is just too dang unstoppable on offense to drop two games to Texas in one season. On to Miami. UT: 41--OU: 45
Schweinfurth: I am so conflicted by this one. Oklahoma can put up points in bunches, but good lord that defense is hard to watch. I saw a stat from Max Olson of the Athletic that has Oklahoma 113th(!) in stop rate (% of defensive stop that allow 0 points) allowing 2.67 points per possession. Let that sink in, Oklahoma allows almost a field goal every possession. That is just horrendous and it has gotten worse since the Sooners fired Mike Stoops. The problem here is that it is very hard to beat a team, especially a rival) twice in the same year. I can see Texas winning this game because of Oklahoma's D being that bad. The points the Sooners put up are just too much. Take the over on this game (it's only 77 and that could just be the first half). UT: 56--OU: 63
Seeberg: Rams vs. Chiefs, part III, or Red River Rivalry, part II, take your pick.  The beer and points will flow heavily in this one.  Lost in the Buckeyes' search for the playoffs again is that it will take a Herculean offensive effort from a Tom-Herman-led squad to pull it off.  Sadly, even hanging half a hundred on the Sooners may not be enough, as Kyler Murray has hit a groove, feeling more comfortable on the big stage seemingly with every passing week.  I'd like to think the pressure of this one will get to him, but you just know OU will be razor-sharp (at least on the one side of the ball at which they're competent) against their rival- a rival responsible for the only blemish on their schedule.  Enjoy the points, bemoan the victor.  UT: 45--OU: 52

SEC: #1 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. #4 Georgia Bulldogs
Draper:  While UGA had a nice season in the trash SEC East, they lost to their one big cross division opponent (and got slaughtered).  Bama on the other hand, shut out the team that destroyed UGA...uh oh. I watched a little more Bama in the Iron Bowl and my opinion hasn't changed.  They are heads and tails above the pack right now, and that includes Georgia.  Why haven't we heard much about Georgia recently? They've played 1 team that anyone cares about (sorry Florida and Kentucky) and they were blown out.  Roll Tide.  Bama: 48--UGA: 24
Hoying: How Pointless? Low. The Tide have a better record, and beat the team that beat Georgia, but the Dawgs played a tougher schedule, and yes, even arguably in the tougher division with the resurgence of Florida and the surgence of Kentucky in the East. Since losing to LSU, Georgia has gone on a tear (excepting a bit of a slow start against Auburn), riding a balanced offense and a very good defense to the doorstep of the playoff. It's going to be a shame when they lose by a million. Bama: 42--UGA: 20
Schweinfurth: Georgia can totally screw everything up for the committee and this isn't the Mark Richt coached Dawgs. They can actually win big games. The problem is the self-aware terminator that Bama has been this season. Georgia does have a chance...if Tua's leg explodes (it has been close a couple of times). Bama is better and this is just an appetizer before it gets to devour the 4 seed in the playoffs. Poor Dawg. Bama: 45--UGA: 13
Seeberg: Bama by a million.  Sadly for the Dawgs, a solid case can be made that they are one of the best four teams in the country, but it won't matter with a second tally in the L column after this one.  Do we (Ohio State, that is) want Bama?  Absolutely not.  But it's who we'll get if things break our way.  Yay?  Bama: 38--UGA: 17

ACC: #2 Clemson Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Panthers
Draper:  Wheee....another 'who cares, Clemson is gonna roll game'. Most advanced metrics are lauding Clemson as being on the same level as Bama and I scoff at that, but they are certainly in the upper echelon.  The rest of the ACC on the other hand....is not.  The SEC, Big 12, and Big Ten all have some semi-relevance this year but the Pac 12 and ACC have been crap and Clemson respectively.  No reason to think Sunshine will do anything but wreck the Panthers on their way to a 2 seed.  The defensive line is too good and Pitt is bad (put Pitt in?).  This will be done by halftime, but Dabo's backups will keep chugging.  Clem: 55--Pitt: 23
Hoying: How Pointless? If this is the price of keeping as many ACC Coastal teams as far away from Clemson as possible during the regular season, a 12-0 vs. 7-5 conference championship is A-OK in my book. I mean, what is there to honestly say about this game? Pitt is not a great team. They're not even a good team. Their best game this year was holding Notre Dame to 2 field goals in the first half and then watching the game inevitable slip away from them (thanks for nothing). If Clemsoning still existed then we would be at DEFCON One for it to make its appearance in this game, but I wouldn't hold your breath for this one. Just look away; the Buckeyes are playing at the same time. Clem: 48--Pitt: 20
Schweinfurth: I don't know how much there is really to say about this game. Clemson has rolled through the ACC for the most part and this should be ugly. Clemson, big. Clem: 42--Pitt: 14
Seeberg: Woof.  Scary that a division champion in a power 5 conference can get to a title game unranked.  If a power 5 title game had to be at the same time as the Bucks' I'm glad it's this stinker.  I'm still not 100% sold on the 2018 version of Clemson, with a bunch of meh wins (albeit with no losses), and a win over a 7-5 Pitt team isn't going to change that. Regardless, that victory is all but inevitable as the Tigers yawn their way into the playoff again.  Clem: 41--Pitt: 17

Mountain West: #25 Fresno State Bulldogs @ #22 Boise State Broncos (Nothing like a little palate cleanser before the main course.)
Draper:  Didn't we see this before? Boise has been sneaking around the chicken coop in the Mountain West letting Utah State soak up some love from the 15 people that actually watch Mountain West football until crushing their hopes and dreams last week and knocking them out of their conference championship.  Now, the Bulldogs hope to return to the glory years of the late 1900s when they were the scrappy little school that was good...until Boise took over.  Sorry.  Boise is the captain now, and will remain so.  FSU: 20--BSU: 30
Hoying: How Pointless? Arrrrrggggghhhh. Not this AGAAAAIIIIN. Not only is this the same matchup as last year's Mountain West championship, these teams JUST PLAYED 3 weeks ago. Seriously, Utah State, with all the love you were getting, you couldn't come through on the blue turf last week when it really counted? I didn't believe in the Broncos last week, to my detriment, so I'll ride with them to take two from the Bulldogs this year. FSU: 21--BSU: 24
Schweinfurth: This game feels like Groundhog's Day. Over and over and over and over and...I haven't spent any time even looking at the Mountain West this year because, meh. Broncos I guess? FSU: 14--BSU: 17
Seeberg: I was on the Boise State train for years and, like my colleague Hoying, lost belief in them only for them to rise up and disallow the Aggies from supplanting them atop the Mountain (West).  If USU couldn't do it, I don't expect Fresno State to either.  Broncos pull through another close one.  FSU: 17--BSU: 24

B1G: #21 Northwestern Wildcats vs. #6 THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper:  Ok. Everyone is expecting the Buckeyes to wallop the Wildcats on their way to another B1G championship, but I'm not so sure it will be that easy.  While the Buckeye offense SHOULD (read: should) make mincemeat our of the purple cats, the defense is build to beat power teams (like TTUN) than it is to beat the 'scrappy gym rat' type teams.  The problem is that Fitzgerald squad is the definition of scrappy. What makes the difference is that this Buckeye team got a taste of what it could be last week, and they know what's in front of them.  They won't come out with the same intensity as the Michigan game, but I think it will be surprisingly close.  The key for me is the same (and this is what led to the blow out last week): get going early.  For the eh....8 or so weeks before the Michigan game, the team looked like poo and fell behind early giving the other team hope.  End the hope for Cinderella early and it's goodnight sweetheart.  Honestly, I see the Bucks with the potential to break the scoreboard here, but how long can Northwestern hang? Depends on if the tone is set.  If so, it will be done in the first half.  If not, hold on for another Big 12 Title game.  I think the Bucks get right, go fast, and take control to cruise to a nice win....but not enough for the playoff unless someone falters.  OSU: 55--NW: 30
Hoying: How Pointless? Not at all, really. Despite the difference in overall records, these two come in with identical 8-1 conference records and didn't play each other during the season. Remember when I said I was terrified of the Purdue game, and it turned out I wasn't quite frightened enough? I don't get that feeling at all for this one. Northwestern runs the same plodding boring offense that Michigan does, only with far worse talent. And they have trouble protecting the quarterback (giving up 29 sacks so far). The defense is good, I guess, but super banged up (even worse than Ohio State), and their DBs don't have the speed to do anything resembling hanging with Zone Six. My only concern is where this Buckeye team's heads are at. They've shown the ability to play down to anyone (well, not Rutgers (Northwestern did though)), but whenever they find themselves in an underdog role they play out of their minds. They are most certainly not in that role this Saturday, unless they can tap into the "we need to crush these guys to make a playoff statement" mentality. That didn't work so well last year (a 6 point win against a slooooowwww Wisconsin team). It did work in 2014, but again, Ohio State was actually an underdog in that one. Don't expect a repeat of The Game, but that's what makes The Game, special, you know? An annual Happy Thanksgiving present to our favorite khaki'd turkey. NU: 20--OSU: 38
Schweinfurth: This has the feeling of 2014 all over again. The Bucks seemingly need a miracle to make the playoffs behind a cannon armed QB. Okay, Haskins isn't the third string QB, he's much, much better. I feel like this is a great match up for Ohio State. Northwestern is a very good team, but they just don't have the athletes to match up with the speed the Bucks have on the outside. I could realistically see Olave playing the Devin Smith role Saturday and just blow by the 'Cats' secondary. You just get the feeling that Ohio State turned the dial up to 11 last week. Is it sustainable, well they have the talent to keep it rolling. The Bucks have to at least cover, and I think they will. Let's get that second straight B1G title! NU: 10--OSU: 42
Seeberg: Well guys, we need 59-0 again...but sadly it ain't gonna happen.  NW has an uncanny knack to play EVERYONE close.  Up 17-0 before choking away a win against TTUN, yet they only beat Rutgers by 3.  Yes, unfortunately you read that right.  The Big Ten West champions ONLY BEAT RUTGERS BY THREE BLEEPING POINTS.  Winning this game with myriad style points seems within reach, but I just don't see it.  Fitzgerald is more willing/able to employ at least a handful of plays with some imagination, unlike last week's supposed offensive genius/QB guru/all-around absolute wacko Jim Harbaugh.  The Bucks should be able to play with a reasonable amount of game control, using a suddenly proficient run game to take some of the load off of the Dwayne Train.  But a couple of big plays keep the Wildcats in it into the 2nd half before the speed of Ohio State puts it away late.  Go Bucks, onto...the playoffs?  Cue the Jim Mora rant.  NU: 28--OSU: 41


Upset Special
Draper: Marshall over Virginia Tech
Hoying: Memphis over UCF
Schweinfurth: Not a lot to pick from so Cal over Stanford
Seeberg:  Louisiana over App State

Bonus:
MAC: Northern Illinois Huskies vs. Buffalo Bulls
How Pointless? Low-to-moderate. This isn't a rematch, but the Bulls have a 1 game lead in conference record, and, unlike Northern Illinois (and Northwestern) didn't lose 3 games out of conference.
Sun Belt: Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns @ Appalachian State Mountaineers
How Pointless? Super pointless. App State beat the Cajuns by double digits on their way to a 2-game lead in conference. Yawn.
C-USA: UAB Blazers @ Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
How Pointless? Quite pointless. These teams played LAST WEEK, and Middle Tennessee crushed the Blazers. It is fun to see UAB's quick ascendancy after their football program was literally canceled and resurrected in the last 5 years.
AAC: Memphis Tigers @ UCF Knights
How Pointless? As Peak Pointless as you can get outside of the Big 12. Not only did these guys play already this season, but UCF finished a full 3 games in conference ahead of the Tigers. And these teams played twice last year and UCF won twice. This is becoming Boise State / Fresno State level annoying.

Grading the Bucks: Week 13 -- TTUN

That's the stuff....stick it in my veins

Offense: A
MVP: Dwayne Haskins, QB
What. A. Performance!  I knew our offense was capable of great things, but the wolverine defense has been great all year.  That didn't stop Heisman Trophy finalist (I'd assume), Dwayne Haskins, from making mincemeat out of Don Brown's defense.  The major surprise from the game was the offensive line that was just spectacular given the circumstances.  Winovich and Gary were quiet all day which is a testament to much (MUCH) improved play by the Big Uglies.  Welcome to the party, Chris Olave and have yourself a game.  Mike Weber had a quiet 96 yards on the ground which went somewhat unnoticed but was a huge accomplishment.  Honestly, the drive of the game was the FG added just before half (should have been 6, but important nonetheless).  After allowing Michigan to pull within 2 just to a gaffe of epic proportions, the Bucks drove down the field in about 40 seconds to score points in the waning seconds of the half.  Talk about stabilizing the momentum shift.  An enormous series. 6 passing TDs and 62 points against the country's number 1 defense? I'll take it.

Defense: B
MVP: Malik Harrison, LB
The defense gave up 39 points but played very well (most of those points came in garbage time--i.e., the latter 2/3 of the game).  Chase Young played well, but there wasn't a great deal of pressure on Shea Patterson most of the game.  The star of the defense was Malik Harrison who was phenomenal making tackles all over the field.  It was a welcome change to see the linebackers step up in a HUGE game.  Even the secondary stepped up (Sheffield was burned on 2 amazing catches where you just tip your cap and move on).  The reason for the defensive resurgence was more due to the Wolverines style of play (1950s football) than to turning a corner on defense, but I'll take it.  The Bullets of 2018 are designed to stop a power running attack and attack short passing routes which made this game a walk.  The problems come against spread offenses with 5 foot tall burners (see Purdue, Maryland, everyone else).  Northwestern might prove a little sneaky next week because power team they are not.

Special Teams: ??
MVP: Chris Olave, WR
The unit with the biggest crap yourself play (Demario McCall's fumble on the kickoff) and nearly sealing the deal (blocked punt for TD).  The fumble could have gone down in history as the biggest bonehead play in the history of the rivalry.  While Michigan was being absolutely dominated in the first half, they were able to pull within 2 with less than a minute to go based on a ridiculous mistake.  The punt block set all right and saved this unit from ignominy.  I don't know how to grade a unit with the highest of the highs and lowest of the lows, but here we are.

Coaching: B+
The coaches finally worked up a scheme.  Maybe it was the last 5-10 weeks in which we looked clueless all coming to a head, but the team was ready to go.  I watched the UM/IU game and saw the Wolverines get destroyed on the crossing routes as well as every pass in the middle of the field.  The coaches made the adjustment and exploited the weakness.  Somehow they got the linebackers anticipating the plays (correctly) and forced some discipline.  Somehow the better athletes looked like...the better athletes.  Amazing what a little work from the coaching staff can accomplish.  I was really excited to see the Tate Martell package and...oops.  This was the part of the plan that didn't work at all.  They needed to read the room after the initial failure (no one believes he'll pass....maybe try it?).  When the Martell package stalled on first attempt and Haskins is cookin', maybe it's time to put that away for the remainder of the game and fix it before rolling it back out.  The second appearance of Martell was just sad, and I felt for Tate as I think this could be used effectively (later this year even), but not on last Saturday.  Michigan is sound in the QB run defense and wasn't having anything to do with him.

Overall: A
The defense still gave up a ton, but a dominant win over Michigan always gets an A.  As I tweeted, the best part about this win was that they REALLY believed it was their year.  They truly thought the years of punishment were at an end...and we smacked them, gave them a swirly, and sent them packing.  The fans are starting to question if they'll ever win again....I hope not.

GO OHIO! BEAT THE WILDCATS!

The Alabama Problem, and Other Playoff Issues

It just wouldn't be the College Football Playoff without Ohio State being somewhere near the conversation, would it? We've been doing this for 4 years and the Buckeyes have never finished higher than #3 or lower than #7, and it looks like a win over Northwestern would guarantee them a spot squarely within that range again.

But where? And why is the ceiling at #3 and not #2? After all, only Notre Dame is undefeated and virtually guaranteed a spot at this point. How does Ohio State really stack up against the other potential one-loss teams? Let's take a deeper dive.

FIRST TOTALLY STUPID AND OBVIOUS POINT

Undefeated Alabama and Clemson are obviously #1 and #2 in some order. Undefeated, win your P5 conference, you're in at the top (sorry, 2014 Florida State, these guys have style points out the wazoo (sorry sorry, WSU) which the Committee thinks matters for some reason).

But suppose Georgia, Pitt, Ohio State, and Oklahoma all win this weekend. That puts Notre Dame at an easy #1 but how should #'s 2 through 6 be apportioned among Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, Ohio State, and Oklahoma?

WHOM DID YOU PLAY AND WHOM DID YOU BEAT

You know our philosophy here at Let's Go Bucks! We grade on resume first and go to the dreaded "I test" when all other metrics have failed us. With that in mind, let's do a blind resume comparison (the order is randomized, and please pretend you can't figure who they are right away), keeping in mind the aforementioned 5 teams would all be 12-1.

(note: some liberties were taken in assuming no other upsets occur next week in order to finalize opponents' records)

TEAM A
Conference Champion

FBS opponents' records: 83-74

Wins over bowl-eligible opponents: 8

Best win: Close road win against 3-loss Power 5 team

Loss: Close loss to 4-loss Power 5 team (neutral site)

TEAM B
NOT a Conference Champion

FBS opponents' records: 84-61

Wins over bowl-eligible opponents: 9

Best win: At home against 3-loss Power 5 team (2 of these, one close, one blowout)

Loss: To 5-loss Power 5 team (neutral site)

TEAM C
Conference Champion

FBS opponents' records: 75-82

Wins over bowl-eligible opponents: 8

Best win: At home blowout win against 2-loss Power 5 team (this team also has a close road win over a 3-loss Power 5 team)

Loss: Blowout loss to 6-6 Power 5 team (on the road)

TEAM D
Conference Champion

FBS opponents' records: 91-54

Wins over bowl-eligible opponents: 9

Best win: Neutral site win against 1-loss Power 5 team (this team also has blowout home and road wins against 3-loss Power 5 teams)

Loss: Blowout loss to 3-loss Power 5 team (on the road)

TEAM E
NOT a Conference Champion

FBS opponents' records: 81-64

Wins over bowl-eligible opponents: 7

Best win: Road blowout win against 3-loss Power 5 team (3 home blowout wins against 4-loss Power 5 teams as well)

Loss: To 1-loss Power 5 team (neutral site)

Team D is clearly out in front by themselves, so we'll put them at #2. That leaves teams A, B, C, and E to fight it out for the #3 and #4 rankings and the final playoff spots. Each has a healthy number of wins over bowl-eligible teams (although look at Team C's opponent win-loss; they must have played some craaaaaap along the way). What's better: beating a 2-loss team at home or a 3-loss team on the road? Probably the former, but not by a whole lot. Team C has one of each; Team B has none of either but two good home wins. Team E has the best loss, but they're not a conference champion, and their resume isn't strong enough to overcome such a glaring weakness. Let's pencil them in at #6. Non-champion Team B really isn't much better; they don't have a signature win or a good road win, so they go to #5.

That puts Teams A and C in the Playoff. Who gets to be #3? That depends on what's better: a more respectable loss or better top wins. Were this March Madness, the Committee would point out that you're not going to see any more garbage teams at this point; you're going to see the top dogs, so we'd better know you can beat them. But this isn't college basketball. Every game matters immensely, and you can't wish away your weakest performance. Oh, and margin of victory won't help you here, either. Team A is winning by 17.4 ppg, Team C by 17.5. They both played one common opponent, with Team A winning by 25 on the road and Team C winning by 12 at a neutral site. I'd probably give a slight nod to Team C, but I could easily go either way. 

In case these teams' identities aren't painfully obvious by now, the foregoing analysis gives us the following playoff rankings:

1. Notre Dame
2. Georgia
3. Ohio State
4. Oklahoma
5. Clemson
6. Alabama

THE ALABAMA (AND CLEMSON) PROBLEM

As you noticed above, if every possible 1-loss team ends up in the hunt for the Playoff this weekend, I would put Alabama and Clemson at the bottom of the list. Why? Simple. They would be the only ones without a conference championship, and the rest of their resume would not support them jumping a conference champion. Yes, Alabama would have the best loss (unless Georgia beat them by 50 or something). Yes, Clemson would have wins over 9 bowl eligible teams. But neither would have the best win among the 1-loss teams. The only other thing Alabama has going for it at this point, the factor driving them merrily along at #1 all season, is this aura of invincibility from blowing out everyone they've played. The funny thing about auras of invincibility is that they tend to fade when you lose. As for Clemson, they've been on fire as of late as well, but the ACC, more than any other Power 5 conference, didn't have anything resembling a strong #2 team to give them any sort of challenge.

And don't get me started on the "conference non-champions have made the playoff before" train. In 2016, 1-loss non-champion Ohio State got in over a 2-loss champion Penn State. In 2017, 1-loss non-champion Alabama got in over a 2-loss champion Ohio State. In 2015, 1-loss non-champion and NFL talent stockpile Ohio State finished ranked behind (1) 1-loss champion Michigan State, (2) 1-loss conference runner-up Iowa, and (3) 2-loss conference champion Stanford. In 2018, if Alabama or Clemson ends up with 1 loss, they're very likely going to be looking around at a lot of 0- and 1-loss conference champions (and undefeated Notre Dame) pushing to crowd them out. If Alabama or Clemson loses and still finds themselves in the Playoff the next morning in front of Ohio State / Oklahoma, then you can start your "The fix is in!" takes.

JUDGMENT TUESDAY

Of course, everything above is my opinion, a little friendly advice to the Committee before this week's all-important rankings. Yes, this week's all-important rankings, because the rankings the Committee puts out this Tuesday are of paramount importance. If this week's rankings have Ohio State at #6, Buckeye fans should be very nervous about their playoff chances. Why? Because Oklahoma plays 9-3 and possibly top 10 Texas, and Ohio State plays 8-4 and probably ~#20 Northwestern. This isn't like 2014 or 2017 when Ohio State entered Championship Weekend with the opportunity to get another statement win and gain ground on a competitor. If the rankings this week are #5 Oklahoma and #6 Ohio State, and both teams win on Saturday, I have a hard time believing anything will switch on Sunday morning. If the rankings are reversed on Tuesday, it's still not quite win-and-in for Ohio State, since Oklahoma can avenge their loss and beat a better opponent than Ohio State can, but Buckeye Nation can keep hope alive and fight for enough of those ephemeral style points to keep the Sooners at bay.


THE BIG 12'S GAMBLE PAYING OFF

I thought the Big 12 resurrecting their conference championship game even though their conference schedule was already a 10 team round robin was an incredibly stupid idea. The prevailing wisdom was that a conference championship would give the Big 12's top team (or teams) a 13th game to pad their resume vis-a-vis the other Power 5 champions. I thought the extra game would be a pointless rematch with the #1 team likely having already beaten #2, and the game would be just as likely to derail a team that had already earned a playoff spot by season's end (hi, 1998 Kansas State). But, barring a giant upset by Northwestern this weekend, it appears that I was wrong and the Big 12 was right. Without Oklahoma's chance for redemption on Saturday, there would've been a very real chance that they entered the week in the catbird seat at #5 and sat at home watching the Buckeyes wow the Committee past the Sooners and sneak intothe #4 spot. This time, Oklahoma will be the team making up ground. Of course, if Ohio State loses and Oklahoma faceplants against the Longhorns again, the Big 12 will look really, really, really stupid.