Week 16: Twice More, With Feeling

Standings:

1.) Schweinfurth 48-16 (0-14 upset)
2.) Hoying 47-17 (2-12 upset)
3.) Seeberg 43-21 (4-10 upset)
3.) Draper 41-23 (2-12 upset)

Welcome to the first 12-team Playoff without an Ohio State home game. Unlike the last Playoff expansion, the Buckeyes are sitting at home in the first round of their title defense season as a result of playing too well rather than too poorly (same number of losses though). While Buckeye Nation waits with bated breath to see which member of the "We Knocked Notre Dame Out of the Playoff" club will be joining them in Jerryworld, we can also settle in to watch a pair of rematches and the Big Ten's only first round participant.

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 19

Alabama Crimson Tide @ Oklahoma Sooners

Draper: Rematches are stupid. OU beat Bama IN TUSCALOOSA and their reward is to play Bama in Norman in a game that 'really' counts.  Let's not forget that the Sooners were EXTREMELY fortunate (lucky) to win round 1.  I believe it was the smallest postgame win expectancy of a winner for the year.  While OU has a nasty dominant defense, the offense is supremely mid.  Mateer needs to make a few plays and I'm just not sure he can do it.  Bama has been trending in the wrong direction over the last few weeks, but the talent is there.  If Simpson can stop seeing ghosts and return to a semblance of the first half of the season (sans FSU), I expect a flip.  DeBoer has a TON to play for as a loss may send him into the open arms of the dumpster fire in Ann Arbor.  Death. Taxes. Bama.  Bama: 20--OU: 13

Hoying: Ah yes, the rare home-and-home intraseason series. What is this, the Pac-2? Just over a month ago, Alabama followed up last year's waxing by the Sooners in Norman by laying another egg at home, with 3 Tide turnovers leading to 17 of the 23 points that Oklahoma needed to clip Bama by 2. Ask yourself: is that likely to happen again? Neither of these teams has been playing particularly well down the stretch, with OU failing to hit the 20 mark against middling Missouri and LSU to close out the season and Alabama getting absolutely whacked by UGA after tiebreaking their way into the SEC Championship. Both of these teams are big believers in min-maxing. Bama has a great (if inconsistent) passing game but runs about as well as Joe Oliver. Oklahoma has fully Venablized their defense but can't really do anything with the ball at all. I don't love this pick, especially since Bama hasn't looked like BAMA since beating Tennessee way back in October, but I can't see OU getting anything going offensively, even on the home turf. Looks like Michigan will have to wait another couple weeks to see if DeBoer is willing to drag them out of the muck. Bama: 17--OU: 13

Schweinfurth: Not sure how to feel on this one. We get a wonderful SEC rematch!!! Woohoo (fart). OU won the first game, and it is really, really hard to win beat a team twice in a year. Alabama can't run the ball and was embarrassed by Georgia. It's been this way all year, and I think it continues tonight. It's close. It's ugly. It's SEC football because they are both great (or not). Bama: 13--OU: 17
Seeberg: To this day, I think it’s obvious to even the most casual observer that rushing Mateer back for Red River was a colossal mistake. The Sooners offense has been mediocre at best down the stretch, and even though Ty and Co in the crimson are pretty one-dimensional on offense, it’s still better than whatever OU is tossing out there now. The Sooners’ defense keeps them in it, but Bama gets revenge (and TTUN doesn’t get DeBoer, everyone wins! Well, except Oklahoma). Bama: 24—OU: 16

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 20

Miami Hurricanes @ Texas A&M Aggies

Draper: This one is super difficult.  The super high variance of the Reed or...the super high variance of Beck and the Canes.  Oh yeah, it's in Kyle Field which could be bad news for the Canes.  However, Miami gets to play the disrespect card with a chip on their shoulder with something to prove while the Aggies more or less backed in to the playoffs after dropping the finale to the Horns. Elko will make sure to rein in Reed to prevent the big mistake while the defense tries to take the game over.  Cristobal will be worried about Beck, but I think the play is to let him cook and see what happens.  Yeah, Beck could throw 5 picks and lose the game, but the upside with Toney and a good Beck would overcome the homefield.  The Canes roll the dice, limit Reed in the run game, and exit Aggieland with a ticket to meet the Buckeyes.  UM: 20--TAMU: 17

Hoying: Who wants to get blasted by the most talented team in America? Earlier this season, many folks desperate to crown a title favorite other than our beloved Buckeyes latched onto the once again resurgent Miami Hurricanes. And why not? Their week 1 win over Notre Dame was as good as anyone else's and then they had that killer 3-week run against ranked South Florida (lol), Florida, and ranked Florida State (LOL). But the Canes have never really looked that great since, outside of a strong closing statement against Pitt that seems to have barely carried them into the Playoff. A&M has been a bit more consistent but seems to have saved the worst for last, getting thumped by Texas not long after needing a miracle to escape a bad South Carolina team. The U is volatile enough to lose to any team in this year's Playoff, with Carson Beck's addiction to picks threatening to flare up at any time, but they've been able to rouse themselves for their big matchups and I think they can do it one more time. Just one. UM: 27--TAMU: 24

Schweinfurth: Miami has the talent to win this game. It really just depends on which Carson Beck shows up. If 4 INT Carson shows up, not looking good. If good Carson shows up, watch out. Truthfully, I do think home field matters this year. Kyle Field is worth at least 7 points. UM: 21--TAMU: 24
Seeberg: Hmmm. What’s the ACC doing here? I thought ESPN everyone was trying to turn the playoff into power conferences only? Oh well. At any rate, the formerly vaunted U roll into Kyle Field sporting an early season win over Notre Dame and…not much else. They’ll face Marcel Reed and the Aggies, sporting an early season win over Notre Dame and…well you get it. Neither of these squads did much to build on that early season success as Beck decided to throw to the wrong team a lot during the middle of the year and Reed took that mantle towards the end. Both teams do have solid pass rushes, and Reed is a bit more mobile. I know they looked worse down the stretch, but several weeks off erases most of that and the home crowd should be just enough to make sure we have another away bowl game crowd on New Year’s Eve. Yay. UM: 17—TAMU: 23

Tulane Green Wave @ Mississippi Rebels

Draper: This rematch is also dumb...but could be a little interesting.  Tulane was blown out in the first round, but this was the first we saw of Chambliss.  Retzlaff was still getting his sealegs under him at that point as well.  The Rebs are fighting so many off field demons with Lane's departure, that it may galvanize or destroy their focus.  I do think the Retzlaff is a good QB that could make this a bit spicy, but let's not forget the Tulane's coach has also taken another job (even if he hasn't left yet).  Ole Miss has the athletes and should be able to outlast Tulane...but I don't think they pull away until late.  Tul: 20--Miss: 34

Hoying: Perhaps a rematch can be forgiven if the first was close, decided by a couple of big plays. Less fun is a retread of a 5-score whomping in which the visiting team completed all of 10 passes between their 2 quarterbacks, and not for lack of trying. We're talking Craig Krenzel against San Diego State levels of aerial incompetence. Generally, the Rebs are a bit more vulnerable on the ground, and the Green Wave was able to find a little bit of room in these teams' first meeting. But you're going to have to score in bunches to keep up with Lane Kiffin's Ole Miss...that is, as long as it's still Lane Kiffin's Ole Miss for at least another 60 minutes. The key minds on offense have all headed west, although a few have pledged to stick around to tamper with Ole Miss's players keep the Rebel scoring attack on track. I don't exactly expect the Rebels to crumble under the chaos, but I don't expect the same potency that we've seen over the last six years in Oxford. It won't matter this week, but the Rebs are in for a rude awakening in their next rematch once the calendar flips to 2026. Tul: 20--Miss: 35

Schweinfurth: Another rematch. Yawn. This has intrigue, but only because of Joey Freshwater. Ole Miss wins. Tul: 20--Miss: 38
Seeberg: If a G5 team has a chance this season, it’s here, despite the blowout 3 months ago. Ole Miss is currently a well-chronicled disaster. Tulane can run it, and the storm over Oxford will keep this one close for a half or so. Can you IMAGINE the Lane social media if the Rebels lose?? Sadly, it will stay in our imaginations only. Tul: 17—Miss: 34

James Madison Dukes @ Oregon Ducks

Draper: Not going to lie, I have no clue what JMU brings to this game other than an A+ social media game and a nice run game.  I've been fading Oregon all year but it continues to haunt me.  No, I'm not doubting them here.  JMU will come out with the kitchen sink, but when everything settles in, the Ducks will simply overwhelm the Dukes.  Just not enough for the little guy (but it would be funny).  JMU: 17--Ore: 45

Hoying: Perhaps if Oregon could have had a warmup game like this in last year's Playoff they wouldn't have come out so flat footed in Pasadena. Yeah, it's always better not to have to play an extra game in a lose-and-you're-out scenario, but the Ducks don't have a lot to worry about in this one outside of the injury bug. This season James Madison played a total of one Power 4 team, Louisville (what is it with Playoff teams and Louisville), and lost by 2 scores. No, I wouldn't rather have seen Duke, or Notre Dame, or Vanderbilt make the Playoff in JMU's place (it matters very little who makes the Playoff after around team #10 or so), but this is the kind of team that Oregon has been chewing up and spitting out all season (except Iowa, but they've been dragging everyone from Indiana to Michigan State into the same 17-13 slog). A Duck win sets up what should be one of the most intriguing matchups of the Playoff down in the Orange Bowl. JMU: 10--Ore: 35

Schweinfurth: The Ducks are one of the teams that could win it all. JMU is not. End of story. JMU: 9--Ore: 35
Seeberg: Well, the Ducks got their wish this year, a first-round game! In all honesty the Ducks are one of 5 teams that can legitimately win it all this year- and the only one without a bye. The best part about this matchup has been how hilarious JMU Twitter has been. Spectacular content, rivaling the Pop Tarts Bowl even. I’ll be sorry when that ends Saturday night. If Oregon avoids injury, watch out CFP they may very well claim their birthright: going on a legit run only to get smoked by Ohio State. Note the score. JMU: 21—Ore: 41

Week 15: Indiana Mendoza and the Temple of Doom

Standings:

1.) Schweinfurth 46-13 (0-14 upset)
2.) Hoying 45-14 (2-12 upset)
3.) Seeberg 41-18 (4-10 upset)
3.) Draper 40-19 (2-12 upset)

You like do or die matchups for the little guy? You like making sangs bleus des sangs bleus sweat out Selection Sunday based on performances of freshly minted power teams like BYU? You like #1 vs. #2 program-defining matchups involving the Ohio State Buckeyes? Then you came to the right weekend, even if you're getting the sinking feeling that you've seen a lot of these matchups before...

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 5

American: North Texas Mean Green @ Tulane Green Wave

Draper: Our first playoff game takes place in New Orleans for the American championship.  Both of these teams have had great seasons with Tulane beating the potential ACC Champ and North Texas more or less steamrolling a...less than impressive slate.  Regardless, this should be a fun game.  Tulane is led by Jake Retzloff (former BYU standout) and will look to run run run while Drew Mestemaker leads the Mean Green and their run and gun passing attack.  Tulane being at home in this game makes it a little tricky, but I think the offensive firepower of UNT will prove too much and lead them to sacrificial lamb status in the playoff.  This should be a fun game with lots of offensive fireworks.  UNT: 45--Tul:38

Hoying: Two years into the 12-team Playoff and we have a real, live, Playoff play-in game in a G6 conference. What a time to be alive. The SEC commentariat has spent the last few weeks impotently blustering about how much better the world would be if we could have 6 or 7 SEC teams in the Playoff instead of throwing a bone to the little guys at the 12 spot (or 11 spot potentially in this case). Sure, both of these teams enter this championship game with double digit win totals, but they aren't beating Power 4 competition week after week, or even beating teams that routinely beat other Power 4 teams. You could point out that Tulane got obliterated by Ole Miss in week 4 and that North Texas didn't play a single Power 4 opponent all year (Washington State doesn't count anymore). But did you know that Tulane has a win over fellow the fellow Playoff hopeful Duke Blue Devils? In fact, all credit to Tulane for playing three Power 4 opponents from three conferences (add Northwestern to the other two mentioned) and knocking off two of them (at home? Why are these teams traveling to Tulane?). The Mean Green have been all gas no brakes on offense this year, putting up at least 30 points in all 12 games (even the game they lost by 27 points), but the defense has been a bit suspect against the run. Unfortunately for Tulane, they make their hay through the air. North Texas hasn't faced a lot of stiff competition this year but the Green Wave should break over them rather harmlessly. Can't wait to see three Texas teams in the Playoff this year. Are we forgetting anybody? UNT: 41--Tulane: 31

Schweinfurth: No idea on this one guys. This falls in the category of, not enough time to pay attention. UNT is favored, so I'll take them to barely cover. Why not. UNT: 42--Tulane 38
Seeberg: We have arrived at postseason college football! Well, except for Army/Navy. Regardless, this one should be a fun watch as both teams have highlight reel offenses. Technically, they also have defenses, kinda. Personally, I need to see a team named Mean Green in the playoffs, especially with the story of their literal 0-star, walk-on QB turned air raid expert in Drew Mestamaker. Can’t keep him down now. The Mean Green outlast the Green Wave in a fun one. UNT: 38—Tulane: 34 

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 6

Big 12: Brigham Young Cougars vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders

Draper: I had the fortune to watch this BYU team take care of their hated rivals in the Holy War, and they get one more shot to take out the lone blemish on their schedule.  The more I've looked at the ridiculous CFP rankings, the more I've realized how BYU has the most right of any team to throw a fit.  They have a great win over Utah and a singular loss to a good team (TT).  ND and Miami have a combined 1 good win (Miami over ND) and 1 'meh' win (ND over USC.  BYU has no bad losses (hello Miami) and a better wins than ND.  Yet, their only path to the playoff is to win an extra game.  Still, to be the best, you need to beat the best.  Bear Bachmeier has had an electric freshman season and LJ Martin is a dynamic running back.  Texas Tech is led by a ferocious defense and Heisman Trophy hopeful (lol) Jacob Rodriguez.  I truly think that BYU is the more stable of these teams as I don't know what the Raiders are going to roll out in a given week, but the upside of the boys from Lubbock is just too much.  BYU will make ND and Bama sweat a bit, but sadly, chaos won't reign.  Tech gets the 3 or 4 seed and a 1st round bye.  BYU: 13--TT: 20

Hoying: Once upon a time these two teams played and I predicted that Texas Tech was going to win comfortably by multiple scores. Then that happened. Now it's going to happen again. The Red Raiders followed up BYU's rude awakening by pasting their last couple of hapless foes in much the same way they've done to every other non-Arizona State team on their schedule. BYU has been fine but, as we saw a month ago, even their freshman sensation QB Bear Bachmeier doesn't have the firepower to overcome the ferocious Red Raider defense led by their Heisman candidate linebacker (?!?) Jacob Rodriguez. Tech hasn't so much as been touched with Behren Morton behind center, and it's going to take a team with a lot more raw physical acumen than BYU's to knock the Raiders out of the title hunt. Tech snaps up a first round bye and awaits whatever Big Ten or SEC foe can finally make them walk the plank (if any). BYU: 13--TTU: 27

Schweinfurth: Texas Tech has looked good all year. Strong on defense. That goes a long way this time of year. BYU has been a cool story, but the has the Red Raiders written all over it. BYU: 14--TTU: 28
Seeberg: I know, I know, rematches are supposed to be way tougher to win, blah blah blah. But let’s be serious here, if it weren’t for the Red Raiders losing their starting QB for a few weeks midseason, they would almost certainly be undefeated. By the time BYU caught them, all was well for TTU as they dominated the Cougars, winning by 3 TDs. I really don’t think BYU has made up 22 points in a month’s time. Red Raiders roll. BYU: 10—TTU: 24

SEC: Georgia Bulldogs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

Draper: Rematches suck.  Who knows what to do with either of these teams? Both struggled against inferior competition in the season finale and have traded off being the team 'begging' to get tagged every week.  While We know that Kirby Smart has this weird thing about beating Alabama, those streaks are only real until they're not (did you guys know OSU beat TTUN in convincing fashion this year! That's way better than the last few years.  Just wanted to bring that up again...). Regardless, when you look at the upside talent, Bama has the offensive advantage in spades.  I'd give UGA the nod on defense, but I just don't know what the Dawgs are this year.  Yeah, they keep winning, squeak out games against Tennessee, Florida, GT....then beat the doors (kinda) off of Texas.  While Deboer has won a lot of close games, but against tougher competition.  I'll lean on the Tide to get it done (because of course).  Their seeding will be interesting.  I expect the winner of this game to earn a bye.  UGA: 24--Bama: 30

Hoying: It's a bad year for dorsal-adjacent monkeys. Virginia beat Va Tech for the second time in 20 tries, and your favorite team just got done dumping their hated rival for the first time since Corona was just a Mexican beer. But time and change have not been any kinder to Kirby Smart, who lost to the Tide again this year to put him at 1-7 against his old defensive coordinating stomping grounds. The good news for the 2025 Dawgs is Kirby's one win over the Evil Empire was in a rematch, in the CFP National Championship after Georgia got spanked by Bryce Young and Jameson Williams in the SEC title game. Of course, that was after John Metchie and Jameson both tore their ACLs, so it appears that Kirby isn't winning any titles if his opponents aren't down both of their star receivers. As for this year, has anything really changed since Alabama trimmed the hedges back in September? Somewhat. Alabama still can't run the ball, but Georgia's pass defense has taken some great steps forward, stifling Arch Manning and Haynes King down the stretch. The Gunner Stockton and Ty Simpson hype has cooled considerably along with the fall weather (seriously, ESPN is beside themselves at the prospect of a 2-man Heisman race between Julian Sayin and Fernando Mendoza) but both have played well enough down the stretch to all but lock up spots in the Playoff. In these teams' earlier meeting this year, Alabama seemed to catch Georgia off guard, breaking out to a 24-14 halftime lead and white knuckling out the second half, very similar to last year, only without the late Ryan Williams heroics (whatever happened to that guy?). This time, I expect the Georgia balance to push past the one dimensional Alabama air raid and get Kirby his second rematch win against his most daunting rival. Just with no natty this time. It's a good thing that Texas Tech is going to obliterate BYU, or else the Playoff Committee would have a really tough time choosing between Alabama and Notre Dame for the last Playoff spot. UGA: 27--Bama: 24

Schweinfurth: Neither of these teams want to play this game. Which is odd, because this is for hardware. I guess no one wants a trophy anymore. Anyway, Bama has trouble running the ball. That's bad news because Georgia looks like a top tier team once again. Dawgs win, but do they care? UGA: 31--Bama: 20
Seeberg: Oddly, it’s tough to know what to make of this game. UGA has looked better on defense in recent weeks, but struggled to score against a very mediocre Georgia Tech team just last week. To Bama’s credit, they seem to have firmly established their identity. To their discredit, however, it’s an identity almost completely devoid of the run game. That’s why I thought Georgia would win the first matchup, but Bama proved to be Kirby Smart’s nemesis yet again. I’m (perhaps stupidly) going to assume that Kirby kept things extra vanilla against the Yellow Jackets to save enough good stuff for this one. Kirby exercises some demons against a rival like Day did last week. Smart. UGA: 24—Bama: 16

ACC: Duke Blue Devils vs. Virginia Cavaliers

Draper: I just....don't care.  While my beloved Noles are in the depths of hell, the ACC is just an absolute dumpster fire.  UVA vs. a 7-5 Duke team for the title? One of these teams (might) get in the playoffs? Whatever.  If Duke wins, it will be funny, but UVA is a better top to bottom team.  There's no reason for the Cavs to blow this one....except it's the ACC.  Spin the wheel! Duke: 17--UVA: 31

Hoying: Seriously, it's like Discount Rematch Warehouse is hosting a 3-for-1 deal on power conference championships. These teams just played 3 weeks ago, at Duke, and Virginia raced out to a 31-3 lead before settling for a comfortable 34-17 victory. That gave the Blue Devils their fifth loss of the season, which, in a saner world, would end any opportunities for a conference championship or a Playoff spot. But the spirit of the ACC Coastal chaos division lives on (as it turns out, both of these teams are Coastal alumni), and both of these thoroughly mediocre, basketball-first programs are practically win-and-in (Duke might need some help from a James Madison loss). Duke giving up 31 points to UVA through 3 quarters was not a fluke; the Devils haven't held an opponent under 25 points since knocking off transient Fernando Mendoza and Devin Brown haven California Berkeley back in early October. The Dukies lost to Illinois, Tulane, and UCONN (again, are we sure we're not doing basketball here?) out of conference and gave up at least 34 points to each. Virginia, for its part, has looked rather cavalier themselves in unimpressive wins against Washington State and North Carolina and a loss to Wake Forest. But at least there's something resembling a defense there, and a good enough offense to overcome whatever they allow, especially against the team they just smoked on the road. Virginia double taps the Blue Devils and slides into the 11 spot to get obliterated by *checks notes* Ole Miss? Hey, maybe the Cavs will have a chance after all. Duke: 21–UVA: 31

Schweinfurth: This feels like Virginia's title to lose. Could have been Miami, but LOL. Duke: 17--UVA: 38
Seeberg: Honestly? I refuse to do much work on this one. Duke got obliterated by the Cavaliers less than a month ago, they have FIVE losses- and one is to UCONN. This isn’t college basketball. A loss to UCONN should be an automatic disqualification. I will say, however, that if ANYONE had this matchup in the preseason and bet it, congrats on your early retirement. Cavs roll, even without LeBron. Duke: 20—UVA: 38

Big Ten: Indiana Hoosiers vs. THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: Welcome to the world of the 12-team playoff where a titanic 1 v 2 matchup means the difference between earning a playoff bye and a Rose Bowl berth and.....a playoff bye and a different major bowl berth.  I warned you all that the playoff seems so cool until we get some of these huge games late in the season that mean nothing.  I will say that this certainly means something to perennial punching bag IU as this is their best chance to do the unthinkable and take a B1G conference title home over THE Ohio State Buckeyes.  Mendoza v. Sayin will be the talk of the game, but I'm more interested in how the teams play in the trenches.  Can the Hoosier d-line (who is really freaking good) break through the Buckeye O-line to pressure Sayin and stop the resurgent OSU rushing attack under Bo Jackson (which TTUN could not)? Can the Silver Bullets continue their reign of terror by simply overwhelming opponents without getting a ton of sacks but limiting all rushing threats and locking down the threats down field? I expect IU to come out with their hair on fire going for glory and hanging punch for punch early on....then Marotti time kicks in as the Buckeye continue their workmanlike approach to the season.  This is a stepping stone on the path to the true goal.  Bucks clock in, shut it down, and head off to the next challenge.  Sayin for Heisman, JJ for best player in CFB (should be Heisman), and the Bucks continue ruining college football for the other 129 schools.  IU: 17--OSU: 30

Hoying: What does this game really mean? In a 12-team Playoff world, heck, in a 4-team Playoff world, not all that much. The winner will be a unanimous #1 on Sunday morning, and the loser will still have a great case to be ranked right behind them at #2. Each will forgo a home Playoff matchup to be slotted into a nice cushy bowl quarterfinal against what should be a manageable opponent (no stupid top 4 autobids for crappy conference champions pushing the best challengers into the #5 and #6 ambush spots like last year). But, if you ask the coaches and players themselves, this game means everything. Indiana has been in the Big Ten since 1900 and has a grand total of two Big Ten Championships to show for it, while Ohio State is still chasing Michigan for the conference lead after pulling within three back in 2020. Indiana has never won a Big Ten Championship in a year in which they've played Ohio State, let alone beaten them, and the Hoosiers haven't beaten the Buckeyes at all in their last 30 tries. The winner carries their momentum into the Playoff and puts the rest of the college football world on notice that they're the team to beat. The thing is, Ohio State has already done that, at least since the bored media ran out of SEC and other southern teams to prop up as potential championship alternatives to the Buckeyes (remember Texas and Clemson preseason? Remember LSU, Miami, and Texas A&M after that?). This game, I think, will come down to two keys: (1) can Ohio State give Julian Sayin time to find Carnell and Jeremiah, and (2) can the Silver Bullets prevent Mendoza from doing the same? (for his receivers, not Carnell and Jeremiah) Last year's easy victory was a bit of fool's gold for the scarlet and gray, as some devastating miscues by Indiana on special teams papered over the fact that Ohio State hadn't quite found the right recipe for success on the offensive line after the losses of Isaiah Simmons, Zen Michalski, and especially Seth McLaughlin. Of course, none of those players are at Ohio State now (although you might see one of them on Saturday) and the big uglies up front had no trouble springing Bo Jackson and Scotchgarding Julian Sayin's jersey last week in Ann Arbor. More than anything, Ohio State's defense won last year's game by putting relentless and constant pressure on Kurtis Rourke to the tune of 5 sacks from Cody Simon, Captain Jack, and JT (great foreshadowing for the Playoff in that respect). The Hoosiers have upgraded at O-line and QB since last year, so it'll be up to the Big Ten's top defensive lineman, linebacker, and defensive back, and the other chess pieces that veritable terminator factory Matt Patricia moves around the board, to bury the HeisMendoza campaign right in the Hoosiers' backyard. Let's pencil in a victory for the Bucks. IU: 20--OSU: 31 

Schweinfurth: Let's start by moving past the logo on the visiting team's helmet. Indiana is a good team. They upgraded at the skill positions and have been a great story. Here's the rub, Ohio State is REALLY good on both lines. Did Indiana upgrade there? I don't know, but the line of scrimmage is where these games are won. Kenyata Jackson and company ate up Michigan's offensive line and blew up multiple plays in the backfield. Sayin wasn't even hurried on a pass play. Those are huge. I still don't know what part of this offense you stop. Day and company have shown that they will take what the defense give them and take a shot when needed. It could be a long day if Indiana has trouble with Ohio State's D front like they did Iowa and Penn State. It's hardware season and time to bring the B1G back to Old Columbus Town.  IU: 17--OSU: 31
Seeberg: Let’s be real here, the amount of national hype for this game is pathetic. I know it’s virtually meaningless from a playoff standpoint as both teams will almost certainly get byes. But EVERYTHING ELSE of importance is on the line: a conference title, the Heisman, and it’s a literal 1 vs. 2 matchup. It quite literally can’t get any bigger than that. Regardless, the Hoosiers make their first trip to Indy and this team is legit. Offense is a half step better than last year under Mendoza, and the defense is a full step better with a draft pick at each of the three levels. Ohio State meanwhile, almost impossibly, is a step better on defense too, with the B1G player of the year at every level of the defense- that has NEVER been done before. They are the first defense to allow 17 or fewer in every game in FIFTY YEARS. Props to the 1975 Gators- though somehow they lost 3 games. Both of these squads are undefeated and it will 100% come down to the play in the trenches. Last year Rourke was harassed all game long and they needed a garbage time touchdown to get to double digits. Our offense wasn’t exactly prolific either, getting a punt return TD and a punt block to set up first and goal. I watched Penn State largely handle the line of scrimmage against IU earlier this year, and that doesn’t bode well as we largely dominated the Nittanies. Long story short: the Hoosiers are better, but so are the Buckeyes. A strip sack will give us a short field, and indoors? The baby-faced assassin will attack all day. Time for Cig to get another serving of humble pie- and their fan base too. We have 9 natties and they have two…conference titles. Pipe down already! IU: 17—OSU: 31

Week 14: Taking the Fifth

Standings:

1.) Schweinfurth 43-11 (0-13 upset)
2.) Hoying 41-13 (2-11 upset)
3.) Seeberg 37-17 (3-10 upset)
3.) Draper 37-17 (2-11 upset)

It's been a long four years, Buckeye Nation, but we're nearly there. Here's to shutting up TTUN for the fifth year and beyond.

FRIDAY THE 28TH

Georgia Bulldogs @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Draper: This battle has been super interesting over the last few years.  After the Jackets were screwed last year in Athens, there is a touch of hope of knocking the Dawgs out in Clean Old-Fashioned Hate.  Sadly, I just don't see it happening.  Haynes King and Georgia Tech have petered out as the season has advanced while UGA appears to be getting stronger.  UGA is not the squad they have been over the past few years, but GT is DOA. Oh yeah, Tech sold the rights to holding the rivalry in Bobby Dodd.  Stupid 'neutral sites'.   UGA: 24--GT: 10

Hoying: Talk about two squads heading in opposite directions. After needing a late TD to get by Florida, the Bulldogs have taken a chainsaw to their foes the last few weeks, including crushing Texas two weeks ago. GT, no the other hand, has all but fallen out of ACC (and thus at this point, Playoff) contention after taking two losses and needing a last second FG against horrible Boston College saving the Jackets against losing three straight. Yes, Haynes King is always dangerous (and was near-lethal to the Dawgs last year), but Tech's defense is just so, so bad, which is a recipe for disaster against an offense hitting its stride at the right part of the season. UGA: 34--GT: 20

Schweinfurth: I don’t see where the Yellow Jackets can hang with the Dawgs. GT has gotten better this year, but I just don’t see it quite yet. UGA:31—GT 7
Seeberg: This contest right here should be the poster child for why conference expansion stinks. 11 weeks in and I have no idea if GT is any good or not. That shouldn’t be possible. Regardless, these in-state-but-out-of-conference foes face off this weekend. I do believe Haynes King is versatile enough to keep this one interesting for awhile, but one player isn’t enough to beat the Speeders and Best (see what I did there?). Bulldogs pull away in the second half. UGA: 38—GT: 20

Fightin' Texas Aggies @ Texas Longhorns

Draper: Fool a guy once, guilt to that dude.  Fool a fellow twice...  I keep falling for the Horns. I just can't believe they're as so-so as they've looked.  The Aggies have been playing with fire and they feel like they're going to get tagged.  It's possible that it won't be until Atlanta, but rivalries are fickle courtesans.  Reed looked below average against the Cocks for a half then blew up to keep the Ags undefeated.  I feel like Texas is ready to have another OU type explosion of 'we are actually not terrible!'  Austin, ghosts of the past, and Battered Aggie Disease elicit recollections of the #1 Longhorns.  Aggies: 17--Horns: 20

Hoying: The Lone Star Showdown could just as easily be called the Fool's Gold Bowl: for one of these two, for the hype they got entering the season, and for the other, the faith they're being shown now. Texas's struggles have been well trod by now: starting at #1 preseason before discovering that Arch wasn't the nation's top young QB after all, and the rushing attack hasn't worked down the stretch either. Their in-state rivals have avoiding the losing side of the scoreboard but they literally haven't faced a single school in the top half of the SEC standings, and have let lesser foes like Auburn and Arkansas hang around for far longer than they should have, to say nothing of the 2nd Half Cocky Collapse that saved the Aggies' undefeated season against South Carolina in College Station. There's a good chance the Aggies have already enjoyed their last win this season, now that it's nothing but big boys going forward. Actually, let's go ahead and say that. Texas uses up whatever they've been saving this season to sow the seeds of doubt in their rivals. Aggies: 24--Horns: 27 

Schweinfurth: I have greater faith in the Aggies D than Arch. Texas has been up and down like a roller coaster while the Aggies have everything ahead. Are the Horns dangerous? Yes. Will they win? No. Aggies:17—Horns: 10
Seeberg: Well, probably the inverse of what everyone thought this one would look like at season’s end. Against all odds, the Aggies have avoided their usual late season collapse- despite their best efforts against South Carolina a couple weeks back- and sit at 11-0. Also against all odds, they have exactly 1 win against a currently ranked opponent…and it wasn’t even in conference play! Yet another case for how lousy conference expansion has been. On the flip side, the Longhorns are better than they were week 1 against the Buckeyes, but still not the juggernaut that a lot of people foresaw preseason. I wonder if SC didn’t give Arch and Sark a blueprint for scoring virtually at will. I still don’t trust the Aggies until they do it. Horns up in Austin! Aggies: 17—Horns: 24

SATURDAY THE 29TH

Coral Gables Hurricanes @ Pittsburgh Panthers

Draper: I find it difficult to really give 2 craps about this contest. Are either of these squads decent? Eh, decent is about right. Carson Beck can't stop throwing picks and Pitt is the definition of ordinary.  Neither the Canes nor Panthers control their destiny, but the Canes are playing for the possibility of an at-large bid.  It's still not looking good, but they need this and need it badly.  Honestly, I don't know...which gives an easy decision---Eff the Canes.  Canes: 20--Panthers: 24

Hoying: Pat Narduzzi laid out the plan for Pitt two weeks ago: lose to ND by 100 and then beat GT and the Hurricanes, and you're playing for the ACC title. Go ahead and check boxes one and two, and now the Canes head north for the last piece of the puzzle. Of course, this doesn't have any significance if Virginia and the Ponies take care of business against their respective underdog opponents on Saturday, but when has anything in the ACC gone according to plan this season? You'll never believe this, but Da U has faceplanted again after another hot start and waves of plaudits awarded by anyone desperate not to recognize the Buckeyes as this year's school to beat. The offense isn't consistent enough and Beck appears to turn into a turnover factory when the result is in doubt. Another squad living solely off of an early season win over the Fighting Irish (see also above). But, again, those are the very Irish that could have walloped Pitt by a hundred just two weeks ago if they'd wanted to. The ceiling for the Panthers is just too low, and while the Canes don't really have a realistic path to the ACC title, they're still in the thick of the Playoff hunt and aren't going to let an opportunity slip away for the second year in a row. Canes: 31--Panthers: 20

Schweinfurth: The ACC is a crap show. The Canes had this conference in hand and let it slip away. Pitt isn’t great and I can’t get support the Panthers after what the Irish did last week. Canes win but Beck throws a few INTs for fun. Canes: 30—Panthers: 17
Seeberg: Again- are either of squads actually good? Frankly, I wish I knew. Pitt had ND, GT and the Canes to end their season. I think we all thought they would rise up and get one of those wins. Turns out it was Georgia Tech. With the Canes still vying for an at-large CFP bid, they should have enough to play for to avoid laying an egg. Canes pull away late. Canes: 38—Pitt: 23

Vanderbilt 'Dores @ Tennessee Volunteers

Draper: Does the fantasy season have a fairy tale ending for the Dores and send Pavia to NY or do the Vols ruin the best season their rival has had....ever? This being in Knoxville will really give Vandy headaches.  I cannot be convinced UT is that good, but they'll be up for this one.  It feels like it's the hour in which the carriage turns back into the gourd for the Dores.  I can't go against Rocky Top in Knoxville here.  (It's no 'Neyland North', but....)  Vandy: 24--UT: 30

Hoying: What has Tennessee learned since losing to the Sooners? The Vols had little trouble working the ball down the field that day but turnovers allowed OU to hang around until they could deliver a late knockout blow. I would advise not allowing Diego Pavia to hang around; he's a little bit of a psycho and I would think he's still rather sore about being bottled up by the Tennessee defense last year in Nashville. I get the feeling that one of these two could have caused a headache or two in the Playoff had they gotten there, if only they could have stopped shooting their foot off again and again this season. The other rode their generational QB as far as they could go, which appears will be just short of their first ever 10 win season (at least until the bowls get underway). Vandy: 27--UT: 31

Schweinfurth: I don’t know how to feel about either of these two. The ‘Dores are really just Pavia and not a lot else. The Vols appear to be a little better. I’ll take the Vols, but only because it’s on Rocky Top. Vandy: 28—UT: 38
Seeberg: Hey it’s an in-state-in-conference rivalry! Let’s be real though: this one has been largely one-sided in the Vols’ favor throughout its history. This year, however, Vandy is quite possibly the better of the two; however, in this wacky sport of college football we all love, that hardly guarantees victory. Vandy is still in the running for an at-large bid with a little help. That, however, will also serve the Vols’ desire to play spoiler, especially in the friendly confines of Neyland South. I just can’t see Vandy getting enough stops through four quarters. Cue up Rocky Top, Stewie! Vandy: 24—UT: 35

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ That School Up North

Draper: They can't keep getting away with this.....The goal for the Buckeyes is (honestly) the exact replica of past years: don't. beat. yourself.  If the Bucks avoid turnovers and just play the way they are capable, there won't be an issue. If they try to beat the ghosts of Wolverine past, there could be trouble.  Focus on winning against the 2025 Wolverines. Don't let past years hurt you again.  The key here is the strong and steady defense.  Honestly, they haven't gotten a ton of pressure this year, but the run defense needs to bottle the Blue while the secondary avoids giving up the big play.  I don't see Underwood beating us over the top.  Sayin and #4 need to connect on a couple of plays, but just avoid giving those jerks short fields and we'll be fine. The perfect ending would be a solid win, shaking hands, and confidently walking off the field afterwards.  Show the Blue that they aren't worth the effort to us.  Defense squeezes the life out while the offense does enough to (finally) return to Indy.  Go Bucks! Beat Blue! OSU: 30--TTUN: 17

Hoying: There's no need to attach undue fear to this one, Buckeye Nation. I understand the desire to look back at the last four debacles in this rivalry and try to find the secret sauce for ensuring a different result this year. But it was never just one repeating factor, not even the guy on the sideline calling the plays. One year it's your run defense, one year it's execution on offense and punting/kicking, one year you just get beat by a better (or at least equally good) squad, and...well, 2022 was just a horribly called and played contest (plus another glaring factor that apparently doesn't rise to the level of any penalties of note). The good news is that last year was a near total fluke, and the Buckeyes appear resolved not to let it define their destiny in any sense going forward. Last year I expressed concern about how tight Day was acting this week, especially in contrast to his confident aura the prior week against the top 5 Hoosiers. But I think he's finally realized that he just needs to be Ryan Day, the 90%+ winning coach. You don't have to put TTUN on a pedestal the way Tress the Wolverine Slayer did, not when you have the best squad in the nation week after week. Coop-style preparation is fine as long as it isn't bundled with Coop-style pants crapping day-of decisions. The Buckeyes have gone on the road and played decent opponents this year, and the Washington and Illinois tilts weren't in any level of doubt at any point past the third quarter. The Silver Bullets are about to unleash an attack unlike any that Bryce Underwood has seen at any point in his life, and the Wolverine rushing attack isn't going to be good enough to undo his blunders. All of Day's tinkering on offense is about to be distilled down to what hurts the Corn and Blue to the greatest extent, whether that's a freshly rested JJ over the top or a battle tested Bo up the gut. The day has arrived for the streak to be reset: let's run it to 9 or 10 this go around. OSU: 27--TTUN: 10

Schweinfurth: This is the real one, and Ryan Day is due. I truly believe deep down Day learned his lesson last year. Call the plan that your guys are best at. That’s not running head long into a brick wall over and over. TTUN’s pass defense isn’t great. Let JJ and Carnell eat in this one. This also feels like another big day for Klare. I can’t see TTUN scoring over 10. This d is too good and disguises coverages too well. Go Bucks! Beat Blue! OSU: 35—TTUN: 9
Seeberg: Well folks, we have arrived. Season went way too fast, as usual. Reports at the Woody suggest this year’s Buckeye iteration is as relaxed as anyone has seen under Day, focused but not on edge. Last year, the pressure absolutely got to the coaching staff, but a natty and a large reshuffling has worked wonders. If 4 and 17 are 90%+, then TTUN’s iffy (at best) pass defense is in a world of hurt, even in snowy conditions. I think a plan along the lines of 2018 would be excellent- the year when Haskins tore their #1 defense apart with crossing routes and short passes galore. To be fair, I don’t expect 62 points. I do, however, expect a turnover or two out of Underwood to set up our offense in good field position. A pick six isn’t off the table either. As long as Sayin stays J-Cool, and the staff doesn’t pucker, there’s no need for this to be a 4-quarter contest. Get out early, quiet that hideous hole in the ground, and let Buckeye Nation relax by when Hang on Sloopy hits. Go Bucks, beat TTUN. OSU: 31—TTUN: 13

Upset Special

Draper: LSU over OU
Hoying: Virginia Tech over Virginia

Schweinfurth: Washington over Oregon
Seeberg: Cal over the Ponies

Week 13: Antepiece

Standings:

1.) Schweinfurth 41-11 (0-12 upset)
2.) Hoying 39-13 (2-10 upset)
3.) Seeberg 35-17 (3-9 upset)
3.) Draper 35-17 (1-11 upset)

Per TVTropes.org: "An antepiece is a seemingly innocuous task that precedes a great-big-difficult-challenge, and gives you subtle hints about how you should deal with the great-big-challenge that you're about to confront." This week provides one last dry run for our beloved Buckeyes before the great big challenges begin to pile up in earnest.

Southern California Trojans @ Oregon Ducks

Draper: I think this game is much bigger than the wiseguys in Vegas (which likely means I'm wrong).  I really don't get the Oregon love.  They were beat at home by a very good IU team (during the day), struggled mightily against the Hawkeyes (probably should have lost), and lest we forget, went to double OT vs a Penn State team that <checks notes> just got their first B1G win in mid November.  The problem is that USC is incredibly inconsistent and usually struggles on the road. Eugene is a tough place to play, but it's a 3:30 kickoff (and IU had no problem).  Jayden Maiava has what it takes to pull this off (his name is Makai Lemon), but the fear of another pooping the bed on the road is there.  Oregon will ground and pound against a suspect (at best) Trojan defense and do enough to get the win, but it will be a battle.  I won't be shocked if Lincoln Riley rolls a seven and the Trojans become the new playoff hopeful in the B1G, but I'll be boring and pick the Ducks.  USC: 24--Ore: 27

Hoying: Are we sure that Oregon is good? The advanced stats love them (4th in SP+, for example), but the Ducks have played in 3 big games (OK, 1 big and 2 medium) and walked away with a walk off lead-changing FG victory, a double OT victory, and a 2-score home loss. I'm not convinced that they're trustworthy, but a team I like even less is USC on the road. As good as the Trojans have been at home (except for playing Iowa, the Big Ten's ultimate monkey wrench), their defense (what little of it existed in the first place) hasn't traveled this season. Oregon QB Dante Moore isn't producing at Dillon Gabriel levels yet; of course, wide receiver injuries don't help either (*nervous laugh*). But Notre Dame provided a blueprint for crushing the Trojans even if your team is over-reliant on the ground game, and nobody runs the ball better than the Ducks. Oregon cements a return to the Playoff and leaves USC still waiting for their first appearance. USC: 23--Ore: 31

Schweinfurth: This feels like a matchup that favors the Ducks. The Trojan defense doesn't appear like it can slow this Ducks team down. If USC is going to win, they will have to turn this into a massive shootout. I just don't see it. USC: 17--Ore: 35
Seeberg: This is a big one for the B1G. A USC win gets 4 playoff teams for the conference again. Sadly for the Trojans, Reggie Bush and Co. aren't galloping in to save the day. Improved play in the trenches (see: USC's dominance of TTUN) keeps them in it, but too much Dante Moore wins out over 4 quarters. USC: 24--Ore: 34

Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: Don't. Get. Hurt.  With the trashy weather in Columbus right now, I'll be pretty surprised if we see Jeremiah or Carnell for much time unless there's residual Heisman hopes.  Sayin will play with the hope of getting that ugly second half vs. UCLA out of his mouth.  This should be a nice warm up for the Buckeye rushing attack as Buttgers run D is atrocious (little different next week).  Hopefully the Bucks can get some of the line issues tightened up <ahem....Tegra>.  The defense will have a slight test as Rutgers has the ability to move the ball through the air (also different from next week).  I'll be interested to see how the defense performs against a decent passing attack.  Rutgers trades a few blows, but the Buckeyes pull away and coast to turn the attention to the dark cloud up north.  The rain and rushing attack should keep the clock moving.  Stay healthy (PLEASE!!!!).  Rut: 13--OSU: 38

Hoying: "Gee, it sure is boring around here." "My boy, this peace is what all true warriors strive for!" "I just wonder what Michigan's up to..." The Buckeyes have been making the most of extended garbage time over the last two weeks, managing to pile points on long after the starters have been pulled. And this week, garbage time may come earlier than expected as one or both of the nation's top receivers may be on double secret injury probation once again. That means one more chance to get the running game going and nail down Sayin's timing with his backup receivers (and the squad of tight ends we've been rotating all year), just in case throwing to Smith and Tate over and over and over fails to work at some point during the Playoff. Rutgers brings a better-than-usual offense to Columbus this time but their defense is so awful that they aren't going to be able to match Ohio State score for score. With the Scarlet Knights one game away from bowl eligibility and facing a more winnable game at home against Penn State next week, both of these teams will be eager to leave this game behind as soon as possible. RSUNJ: 10--OSU: 34

Schweinfurth: The theme of this one for the Bucks is just get healthy. Ohio State can crush Rutgers without Smith and Tate, and that's okay. Keep Julian upright and out of the game as soon as possible. On both sides of the ball, identify what doesn't work and then just beat the crap of out it. This is can be a true prep game for next week. Run the ball, stay healthy and get ready for war. Rut: 7--OSU: 42
Seeberg: Ah, senior (and underclassmen we all know are leaving) day. Shame we can't recognize Downs and Reese and Tate like the seniors. In any event, this one looks to be another "boring" win like Purdue, particularly if 4 and 17 sit. Maybe a pick 6 or another return TD will spice things up? Regardless, I'll take boring wins over those inexplicable Urban losses any time. For God's sake keep everyone healthy for the 29th. Hope Schiano tries some more funny business and gets his ass reamed again. Rut: 10--OSU: 37

Upset Special

Draper: Wisconsin over Illinois
Hoying: Kentucky over Vanderbilt

Schweinfurth: Maryland over Michigan
Seeberg: Arkansas over Texas

Week 12: Bruination

Standings:

1.) Schweinfurth 37-10 (0-11 upset)
2.) Hoying 35-12 (1-10 upset)
3.) Draper 32-15 (1-10 upset)
4.) Seeberg 31-16 (3-8 upset)

For the first time since the last round of conference realignment, the Buckeyes welcome a Big Ten West (Coast) member to the Shoe. It won't be all new faces, though, as an erstwhile Tennessee Volunteer returns to Ohio Stadium under the lights once again Nico is hurt and UCLA is going to get drilled. Old meets new across the SEC as well as a few top contenders look to keep pace with Texas A&M.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Pittsburgh Panthers

Draper: Notre Dame has the charmed schedule as this is the final hurdle (of 2) for the Irish to surmount after the 0-2 start. Pitt is fighting to say they're a real competitor, but I don't buy the talent. Yeah, they'll come out blazing at home but this feels like a boring slugfest by Notre Dame which ends in the inevitable better athletes simply taking over. Love is a solid RB that should be enough to run over the Panthers, but I don't see this Irish team as particularly elite. Magic can happen for the home team, but not this time. ND: 20--Pitt: 17

Hoying: Two turnovers on downs, a missed field goal, and a fumble. That's what kept Boston College close with Notre Dame despite getting outgained 458-281 a couple of weeks ago, the only opponent that Notre Dame hasn't crushed since losing two heartbreakers to start the season. Well, them and USC, but I don't think the Irish are going to have to worry about facing players like Jayden Maiava and Makai Lemon until the Playoff (if they make it there). The Irish look very sound on both sides of the ball, pairing the lethal rushing attack of Jeremiyah Love with hot new thing CJ Carr behind center (or in the shotgun) while still leaning on a defense that's not quite as good as last year's but still quite competent. What does Pitt do? Well, they give up a lot of points; four of their six ACC opponents have cracked 20 (as compared to one of the Irish's last six foes), and the Panthers are allowing a ghastly 95.65% scoring rate to their opponents in the red zone. I don't see much of an opportunity for Pitt to snakebite Notre Dame here. The Irish know this is the only team with a pulse standing between them and a second straight Playoff appearance (and third in the last 6). Not to mention that Coach Narduzzi would really, really rather focus on the Panthers' remaining conference games later this month. Welcome back to the show, ND. ND: 34--Pitt: 20

Schweinfurth: This feels like an elimination game. Notre Dame can't afford another loss, especially without the chance to play on championship weekend. A win for the Panthers might give them an inside track to a playoff spot. Jerimiyah Love is a problem for Pitt. That dude is a beast and surely will help the Irish control the game. I've got the Irish close. ND: 24--Pitt: 21
Seeberg: Well, the pundits keep telling me Notre Dame is good. Watching them get treated like an SEC school (read: being lauded for #qualitylosses) is annoying- particularly since they haven’t won anything of consequence since their head coach was someone who Ryan Day would like to know of his whereabouts. In any event, Pitt could go on an absolute all-time heater the next 3 weeks (ND, GT, Miami) and wind up with an improbable CFP berth, and while I do think the Panthers will get one of those squads, Tony Dorsett isn’t walking through the door to go carry for carry with Jeremiyah Love. Advantage: golden domers. Back door cover city for Pitt. ND: 27—Pitt: 17

Oklahoma Sooners @ Alabama Crimson Tide

Draper: What to do here? Bama is in the standard driver's seat for Atlanta and the CFP, but they have certainly shown some chinks in the armor. Simpson has been playing pretty well, but he's made some dumb mistakes in crucial situations. The talent of the supporting cast is obviously top notch, but the Tide simply make more mistakes than we saw in the Saban era. The Sooner defense has the ability to match (or at least come close) to the Buckeye defense. It depends if they're on their game. I think Venables has the defense show up and they get to Simpson at a good clip....but then they'll be on offense. Mateer has been wildly inconsistent this year and he'll need to be at the top of his game to pull of the upset in Tuscaloosa. I don't think he can do it. The Sooner D plays well enough to win, but Bama is inevitable. OU: 17--Bama: 23

Hoying: I'm still not sure whether Oklahoma is any good, although a tough road win at Tennessee hints that the Sooners may be for real this year. And of course, we all know that Alabama is good after four straight ranked wins™ (three of which are still ranked!) followed by two tough wins against SEC teams in freefall. But much like Notre Dame above, this is Bama's last program with a pulse they'll face until (unlike Notre Dame) the conference championship game, so don't expect any letdown efforts here. Of course, at this point last season, everyone thought Bama had disembarked the struggle bus (how about that get-right game against Mercer?) before getting trampled by the Sooners in Norman. The way Alabama has been playing down to their competition lately, they could absolutely lose this game, especially with their totally moribund rushing attack. You think Ohio State's got problems; they're in Lydell Ross / Maurice Hall territory down in Tuscaloosa. If Ty Simpson does win the Heisman this year, he'll really have had to earn it, because the entire Crimson Tide offense runs through him and him alone. They'll need him against the vaunted BRENT VENABLES defense, although the Sooners may have been exposed, giving up an average of 30 points in their last two games against Ole Miss and Tennessee after surrendering just 66 points in their first 7 games. I have a feeling that all above trends will continue, with Bama playing with their food before putting up enough points to put Oklahoma away. OU: 20--Bama: 24

Schweinfurth: The Sooners were rolling until Mateer got hurt. By rushing back, he may have done more harm than good. Ty Simpson for Bama has been on a heater and even jumped up in the Heisman, because why not. While I don't think the Tide are world beaters, they have the momentum and want revenge from last year. That's all the motivation they need. OU: 34--Bama: 38
Seeberg: Well, the Sooners have certainly fit right in in their new conference, what with that dark red color and failing to live up to expectations. Bama (heavy sigh), however, looks like Bama of old but with one glaring exception: they absolutely cannot run the ball. If you think Ohio State can’t run it, watch the Tide and you’ll feel far better about the Buckeyes’ largely meh running attack. I’d like to think that the Sooners defense is good enough to capitalize on the one-dimensional nature of Ty Simpson and Co, but he’s been good enough to overcome it, and in the friendly confines of Bryant-Denny I expect him to be good enough to do so again. Tide late: OU: 17—Bama: 27

Iowa Hawkeyes @ Southern California Trojans

Draper: The defining characteristic of both these teams is "inconsistency". The Hawkeyes showed incredible defensive fortitude to nearly pull off the Duck upset as well as vs. the Hoosiers (outside of the last minute) but then the team squeaks by a Penn State. The Trojans are gangbusters vs. TTUN, but looked clueless early against the Illini. While Iowa has played pretty darn well this year, I'm not sold on their ability to play tough teams on the road. The toughest road game to date was against a horribly overrated ISU tam...that beat Iowa. SC has the pieces on offense, but seems to struggle to connect them at times. Makai Lemon is a beast and Maiava, while inconsistent, has some top end talent. I think the friendly confines of the Coliseum will be enough for a Trojan win. The Hawks have to travel and the Wave doesn't follow. Iowa: 13--USC: 27

Hoying: Hey, in a world where Tennessee can hang around the bottom of the rankings, why not Iowa as well? Each one has three quality losses against top teams (well, two top teams and Iowa State for one of them)...and no wins to speak of. The thing is, the Hawkeyes were confusticating the Hoosiers and the Ducks in the black hole of Kinnick, and now they have to make the odyssey to Troy to play a USC squad that's been a very dangerous beast at home. I am still not an Iowa believer; their quarterback makes Cade McNamara look like Brad Banks and the last Big Ten team that visited the Coliseum with a QB that couldn't throw ended up being completely stymied on the ground as well (go blue). Somehow, the Hawkeyes are bringing the same horrible Iowa downpour that dampened the Oregon offense last week, but it won't be enough to stop USC's many, many offensive weapons. Iowa: 17--USC: 27

Schweinfurth: Iowa has had a nice run to this point, and the offense looks serviceable. Here is my concern, Iowa was helped by the weather last week as it grounded Oregon. There may be a bit of this in SoCal this week, so the game is probably close. Still, I think I trust Maiava more than random dude from Iowa to make a play. Iowa: 10--USC: 17 
Seeberg: Well, we now know one of two things for certain: God is either a Hawkeye fan or he has a brutal sense of humor. Wind gusts up to 20 MPH and up to TWO INCHES OF RAIN are expected to fall in sunny LA tomorrow as the Trojans welcome Iowa- their helmets still waterlogged from last week. It’s hard to imagine Iowa scoring under any circumstance, but they mustered a good fight against Oregon in similar conditions. The B1G likely wants to see USC win out to get a 4th team in the playoffs (we are not mentioning any other scenario where that could happen). In my mind, the Trojans were strong enough up front against the Wolverines to hold up sufficiently for Maiava to make a few plays. Should be just enough. First to 20 wins! Iowa: 16—USC: 20

Texas Longhorns @ Georgia Bulldogs

Draper: This game is super difficult. Texas continues to be punched in the mouth (by bad teams) and squeak out the win. Then they play Vandy, look like the Horns we expected....and almost poop it away. UGA is another team that has played with fire all year, but keeps arriving on the smiling side. This is a slugfest between 2 heavyweight defense and 2 meh offenses. Arch has the ability to make something happen here, but I'm really nervous to pull the trigger with the inconsistent QB play. Gunner Stockton isn't anything special, but he's pretty good at managing the game. The final point for Georgia is the game being between the hedges. I REALLY want to pick Texas here because the talent is there and both teams are riding on the edge. You know what? Everyone picking the same thing is stupid. Hook them! UT: 20--UGA: 17

Hoying: This is going to be a fun one, because both of these teams have been begging to take another loss the past few weeks and one of them is finally going to catch it. OK, Vanderbilt was never really going to beat Texas after about halfway through the 4th quarter, and Georgia didn't let MSU get anywhere near replicating their near-win over the Horns. But neither of these teams is suddenly going to find a championship identity in the waning moments of the regular season, preseason top 5 rankings notwithstanding. For Texas, the problem is the same as it's been since they put up an anemic 7 points in the Shoe back in August: the passing game doesn't work and Arch isn't him. And the run game is even more moribund, continuing to take steps backwards after a passable performance in Columbus to open the season. Playing Georgia isn't what the doctor ordered to get your attack back on track, even if facing the Dawg D isn't quite like playing on Heisman mode any more. Look for Georgia to suffer a stupid loss at some point, just not this weekend. UT: 17--UGA: 24

Schweinfurth: Neither of these teams really gets me excited. Arch has been a disappointment from the hype, but the Longhorn D has been okay. Texas has to be the desperate team here. One loss and they are on the outside looking in. Georgia may be okay if it's a close loss. I don't have a good feel for this game, because we have seen Texas rise up in these games this year (see Oklahoma). Georgia wins, but Arch has a chance to win it late. UT: 24--UGA: 27

Seeberg: Uh oh, time to watch our quality win take another hit. Amusingly, if UGA wins this one, Sark will be 0-5 against OSU and the Bulldogs in just 13 months. Remarkable. Texas looked like about 25% of what we thought they were at the outset of this 2025 campaign. Now they look like Texas Lite: Good-but-not-great offense, very-good-but-not-elite defense. Have they hit their peak? They’ll need to to win between the hedges. I’m still not convinced anyone in the SEC is on the OSU/IU plane, but Kirby has Georgia closer to that precipice than the Longhorns. Arch scores in the 4th, but it’s not enough. UT: 20—UGA: 24

California Los Angeles Bruins @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: It's late, and it's tough to continue to say the same things over and over. The Bruins are not a good team. Nico is a mediocre QB that does have flashes of skill, but I don't know how he can handle his return to the Shoe and the beatdown he experienced last year. I guarantee the Bullets remember (and the fans) and he will be welcomed back in a Buckeye manner. UCLA doesn't have the horses, so the worry is "can the Buckeyes avoid the stupid game?" I think they can. It will be interesting if Day and Hartline go with the Wisconsin gameplan (or Tennessee) in which we bomb downfield all day or the more "slow approach of death" by 1,000 CJ Donaldson runs. I think they'll mix it up, get Sayin, Smith, and Tate (and Bo) some stats then coast to the finish. So long as this team remember that dumb stuff happens in CFB every year....don't let it happen here. This should be a big Arvell Reese game as he remembers literally cracking Nico's helmet last year. Bucks big, but a little let up in the second half. UCLA: 10--OSU: 41

Hoying: In 2018, Clemson went 13-0 and was awarded the #2 seed in the College Football Playoff despite not playing a team ranked in the top 15 all season. Then they proceeded to win their playoff games by an average of 27.5 points on the way to a dominant 15-0 national championship. You don't need to be constantly tested by the top competition to stay sharp and play at an elite level. Which is a good thing, because the Buckeyes are playing another feckless heap of also-rans this week under the lights in the Shoe. You've seen Nico before; he was the only part of the Tennessee offense that worked last year. But, after getting a little too big for his britches, he's chosen to come back with an even worse supporting cast, and the Buckeyes hadn't even fully deployed Arvell Reese last time Nico was running for his life. The defensive game plan is simple: keep Nico from running free and UCLA will not be able to score. Of course, they didn't score much the last time these teams met in 2001, and it didn't stop Ohio State from losing that one. The good news is that this time UCLA has one of the worst defenses in the country, so it really doesn't matter what Ohio State's game plan is: it's going to work. The last time Ohio State played under the lights, they decided to make it the Julian Sayin show, but Day has been determined to get the running game going, especially configuring what combo of big uglies up front will be able to execute for the stretch run. I expect to see a little bit of everything (except Carnell Tate, maybe, has anyone heard anything about him this week?) as, much like last week, the Buckeyes know exactly what kind of game this is, and Day's tinkering instincts will show themselves again. We'll know what the Buckeyes' real A-game plan is a couple weeks from now in Ann Arbor. UCLA: 3--OSU: 45

Schweinfurth: Welcome back to a night game at The Shoe, Nico. Surely he has some good memories of this place **checks video package, sees helmet explode** Oh. That nightmare can continue this week if Arvell Reese gets to tee off on him. I don't have any worries about the offense versus the Bruins D. Sayin and Smith should be able to march up and down the field with no problems. Nico may move the ball, but I expect this defense to stall out the Bruins O near the goal line. Another week, another win. Maybe Nico should have stayed in Knoxville...UCLA: 9--OSU: 38
Seeberg: Look, we all know what’s coming here. UPDATE: Nico is out with a concussion. Their backup hadn’t thrown a pass in his career. A shutout is definitely in play now. Honestly it’s refreshing to have a boring November instead of the scheduling gods always giving us a massive one leading up to The Game. The line is hovering around 32, seems Vegas has finally gotten wise to the Buckeyes’ dominance. The O line- and apparently Carnell- is a bit banged up and the forecast has some rain and wind. Not super ideal conditions for slinging the rock, but the Bruins are an abysmal 121st in the country in rush defense, allowing 191 ypg. If EVER there was a time to get the run game right (and maybe supplant a certain RG), it’s Saturday night. Stay clean, stay healthy, turn Bo loose, and get to 10-0. UCLA: 3—OSU: 38

Upset Special

Draper: Northwerstern over TTUN
Hoying: Navy over South Florida

Schweinfurth: Florida over Ole Miss
Seeberg: NC State over Miami 

Week 11: Boilers 'n' Toilets, Plus That One Boilin' Toilet

Standings:

1.) Schweinfurth 33-10 (0-10 upset)
2.) Hoying 31-12 (1-9 upset)
3.) Draper 28-15 (1-9 upset)
4.) Seeberg 27-16 (2-8 upset)

The nation's last four undefeated teams all hit the road this weekend, and somehow, the least consequential is at the home of the preseason #2 (yes, yes, I know, but this is Let's Go Bucks! after all). We'll soon have a better sense of who really runs the Big 12 this season (no, Cincinnati, not you), as well as whether Texas A&M can continue their hottest start since they were banned from TV back in 1994.

Brigham Young Cougars @ Texas Tech Red Raiders

Draper: This game holds a lot of intrigue and playoff implications.  A BYU win would likely cement them into the Big 12 championship game, but a loss opens the floodgates for all contenders.  Bear Bachmeier is a solid QB that has been playing well all year.  They continue to fall behind then mount comebacks week in and week out.  Tech is at a do or die moment.  Crapping the bed against ASU was their one mulligan and they can ill afford another.  The NIL money is flowing like wine, but they need to cash here.  In Lubbock, the Red Raiders are currently listed as a whopping 10.5 point favorite.  That seems a tad rich to me, but I do think they pull off the win to knock the Cougs from the ranks of the unbeaten.  BYU: 20--TT: 27
Hoying: Good for BYU. A year after a surprising 9-0 start and getting hosed out of the inaugural Playoff Dozen in favor of the SMU team they beat in Dallas, the Cougs are right back in it this season as the only remining unbeaten team outside the Power 2. That isn't enough for a top 6 ranking in the eyes of the Committee, and they're probably right about that, since BYU hasn't done a whole heck of a lot except put a resurgent Ute squad in their place a couple of weeks ago. But opportunity presents itself this week: TTech remains one of the hottest teams nationwide outside of a strange hiccup in the desert against Arizona State. That was the only game that the Red Raiders didn't hit at least 34 points, and it was the only game which their star QB Behren Morton didn't start. I don't want to sell BYU short; their own QB Bear Bachmeier has been a force for them (see, Michigan, freshman QBs don't have to be mid), but Tech is going to make him miserable with perhaps the best D-Line that money can buy. This is the biggest game in Lubbock since Michael Crabtree silenced the Horns and, while I don't think this one is going to have quite such an exciting finish, I expect another favorable result for the home crowd. TTU cruises toward their first Playoff berth in the first year they've cracked the top 25 in the Playoff rankings! BYU: 17--TTU: 34

Schweinfurth: Texas Tech has it all going for them. Good defense, high ranking, confident offense. BYU is that annoying kid that just won’t go away. The seems like a no brainer. Texas Tech is looking like the Big-12 rep right now. BYU: 14–-TTU: 38
Seeberg: BYU wanders in to Lubbock with their magic underwear and undefeated record. Gotta love 11 AM local kicks for top 10 matchups! Regardless, the Red Raiders would likely also still be blemish-free were it not for an injury to the salt man Behren Morton. Also, not only is BYU’s qb a freshman, but he wears #47? It’s like Devin Brown all over again, and we know how well that worked out for him, losing his qb battle to another true freshman. Regardless, the Raiders will re-establish themselves as the team to beat in the Big 12…whatever that’s worth. BYU: 17—TTU: 31

Texas A&M Aggies @ Missouri Tigers

Draper: Hey! It's Missouri again.  You'll never guess, but I still don't believe.  A&M is prime for a standard faceplant, and if Mizzou had their QB1, I might pull the trigger, but no Pribula spells trouble.  The Aggies have a legit claim to number 1 right now with a hot QB, a tough defense, and confidence.  Marcel Reed has another nice (not spectacular) performance and the Aggies continue unblemished.  TAMU: 24--Mizzou: 17 
Hoying: Guys, I really really wanted to pick Missouri in this one. They've been much better at home and A&M has been begging to get tagged with lackluster performances against Auburn and Arkansas. But. Penn State transfer QB Beau Pribula injured his ankle (not his fibula) in the Tigers' loss at Vanderbilt, which means now they have to rely on Screaming Yellow Zollers at QB to deliver a win against a top 3 opponent. And to add injury to injury, star Tiger TE Brett Norfleet isn't playing either. Now, Missouri has been a rush-first team this season, but Pribula was a key variable in that formula too, and A&M hasn't been too vulnerable on the ground this year. Look for the Fightin' Texas Aggies to dial up some pressure on the freshman QB and mix in a healthy dose of exotic run fits as well. The eyes of Texas are upon you, UT, to make sure A&M doesn't finish the season unblemished. TAMU: 24--Mizzou: 20

Schweinfurth: Oh man. Two SEC teams. Great. These are at least toward the top of the conference? I think? Look, I have never taken Mizzou seriously, and I’m not sure I can this year either. TAMU: 28—Mizzou: 13
Seeberg: Here we are again, Mizzou’s biggest home game in years, part 2. Part 1 ended poorly with Bama escaping town with a 3-point W. Mizzou has beaten absolutely nobody of note; they’re Tennessee with a slightly better defense. Somehow, the Aggies have also beaten nobody of note in the vaunted SEC, but their drubbing of the golden domers looks better each week. Until this iteration of the Tigers proves me wrong, I’m taking the Aggies in hopes of getting another SEC team out of the rankings. TAMU: 27—Mizzou: 17

Oregon Ducks @ Iowa Hawkeyes

Draper: Weird stuff happens in Iowa City.  Also, do we really know Oregon is any good? Their best win to date is likely...Northwestern? Yeah, Dan Lanning, blah blah, blah, but Iowa was much closer to knocking off the Hoosiers (this is still weird to type). I don't think Ferentz and company have quite enough of the magic dust left to pull this one out, but I won't be absolutely shocked in a weird 2017 Iowa voodoo happens (that game is still baffling).  Regardless, Oregon continues plowing ahead hoping for a loss of the big 2.  Ore: 31--Iowa: 17
Hoying: Bonasera...what has Oregon ever done to make you treat them so disrespectfully? I feel like the country has sort of collectively forgotten about the Ducks after the Indiana loss and the collapse of Penn State. It's not their fault the other two OSUs have been horrible this year, and the Ducks curbstomped both of them the way you'd expect an elite team to. Sure, they fell to Indiana, but so did Iowa, both teams fading down the stretch in the fourth quarter against the Hoosier juggernaut (what a time to be alive). Iowa hasn't changed a lick: sure they only have two losses so far but that's what you get when you've been blessed to play a Big Ten West level schedule so far. Too bad they're facing the Big Ten Way Out West one-two combo this week and next. Teams that don't throw the ball don't beat Oregon, and lo and behold, the Hawks have quite possibly the worst passing game in the nation, led by a quarterback who makes Bryce Underwood on his worst days look like Julian Sayin. Yeah, nobody wants to go play at Kinnick, but there are only so many recipes for beating Oregon under Dan Lanning and Iowa is still serving up 12 helpings of pork tenderloin sandwich every season. Ducks take down Hawks (next up, Team Iceland). Ore: 27--Iowa: 17

Schweinfurth: Not sure I can really give this much thought. Iowa is still Iowa. Okay to good defense, not much offense. Sorry, but you have to score to beat the Ducks. Ore: 35—Iowa: 13
Seeberg: I am, quite frankly, astounded at the amount of attention this game is getting as a potential upset. Barring D/ST scores or multiple short fields I just can’t envision the Hawkeyes scoring enough points to win this one, though they did largely throttle the Hoosiers when they came to Iowa City. I would expect the Ducks to create a turnover or two of their own, however, and Iowa can’t afford mistakes with their razor thin margins. Ducks late. Ore: 23—Iowa: 13

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Purdue Boilermakers

Draper: Someone said that it must be terrible being an OSU fan right now because you simply crush everyone in your path.  Honestly, I'm loving it! However, each game always starts with the pit in your stomach of 'is today the day?'  The nice thing about the 2025 edition of the Buckeyes is that those weird worries are usually quashed very quickly.  I expect the same here.  Yeah, the Boilers played TTUN reasonably close last week, but I think that speaks more to the maize and blue than it does to the old gold.  Ryan Day and Co. always come out of the gate slow on the road (except in Madison?) so I don't know if we'll get fireworks, but it's going to be hard to prevent them with Tate and Smith terrorizing the secondary.  I was wrong in Madison, but this seems like an opportunity to work on the running game and try to get something going up front.  Stop the rotation and cement Bo as the starter.  Once again, get in, get the dub, stay healthy, Go Bucks! OSU: 45--Pur: 13
Hoying: If you're a fan of Parker Fleming (no, not THAT Parker Fleming, wait, why is he still listed as Ohio State's current special teams coordinator?) and his statistical modeling at CFB Graphs, you won't be surprised to know that this is one of those "lots of blue numbers against lots of red numbers" games. Apparently, the only things that Purdue isn't horrible at is success rate on passing plays, offensive success on late downs, and minimizing points given up on opponents' potential scoring drives. That's...not a lot to go on, especially since Ohio State leads the nation in getting teams off the field on 3rd down and stuffing them on 4th. You could be forgiven for thinking that Ohio State might not be putting in quite the effort or energy for this game as they did for Jim Knowles's unhappy homecoming last week. But if you've watched Ryan Day closely this season, you'll see that he's taken his usual positivity coach speak demeanor and laced it with a healthy(?) dose of elite coach psychopath. It's like the Buckeyes are in permanent cruise control this season, but set at 75 MPH on the open road while everyone else is in a go-kart. Anyone pulls up close, and the Bucks hit the nitro. Not this week though. OSU: 38--Pur: 6

Schweinfurth: Number 1 Ohio State comes rumbling into Purdue. I’ve heard this before. It ended…not good. Good news, this Purdue team is not great. Ryan Day has shown that this team will turn up the pressure and tempo if he has to. It wont be needed here. Bucks should win pretty handily. OSU: 42—Pur: 6

Seeberg: *The 2018 Boilermakers can’t hurt you* I say to myself while slowly rocking back and forth in a dark corner somewhere. Thankfully, this statement is accurate as we actually have their best offensive weapon from last season, and their best weapon this season is on the shelf in starting RB in Devin Mockobee. Lots of short possessions for their offense should provide lots of opportunities for ours. The weather looks mediocre so deep shots may be impacted, but I expect Sayin to remain precise on short and intermediate throws. Perhaps the run game can get right too? Maybe a pick 6 or punt return TD? It all feels in play. Boring wins are good wins, and if this one is in doubt in the second half, something has gone apocalyptically wrong. HAMMER that Max Klare anytime TD prop if you can get it people! OSU: 38—Pur: 3

Upset Special

Draper: Penn State over Indiana
Hoying: Mississippi State over Georgia

Schweinfurth: Auburn over Vandy
Seeberg: Cal over Louisville