Week 14: I'll Be Home For Advent

Standings:

1.) Seeberg 37-15 (3-10 upset)
2.) Hoying 36-16 (5-8 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 36-16 (3-10 upset)
4.) Draper 35-17 (4-9 upset)

When the season's been too lonely
And the road has been too long
And you think that wins are only
For the lucky and the strong,
Just remember in December
Far beneath the bitter snow
Lies the Bowl from the Committee
In the New Year, called the Rose.

FRIDAY

Pac-12: Oregon Ducks vs. Utah Utes

Draper: It seems like yesterday that Utah smashed this Duck team in Salt Lake, but who doesn't love a good rematch (everyone....the answer is everyone). Oregon hasn't looked the same since the game in Columbus, but they do have talent on both sides.  That being said, Tavion Thomas had no trouble running all over the Ducks and I don't see that suddenly changing.  Thibideoux will get his, but they'll neutralize him by simply running the other way. I know beating a team 2x in a season is 'supposedly' difficult, but I think the Ute ground game repeat history. Ore: 24--Utah: 31
Hoying: I don't know about you, but after I saw Utah eviscerate the Ducks in Salt Lake City, I was just itching for a chance to see such a thriller repeated. Since the Buckeyes are likely headed to the Rose Bowl, it's probably better to face the evil you know than the evil you don't, but I didn't see anything from Oregon the first time these teams met that would lead me to believe they have any kind of edge over the Utes. I know Utah was in this same position in 2018 and 2019, and Washington and Oregon sneezed during their backswing and ruined their Rose Bowl hopes, but enough has to be enough at some point, right? The Ducks suffer their second loss to Utah (the two Utes?) on their way out of NY6 contention. Ore: 20--Utah: 23
Schweinfurth: Utah straight up bullied the Ducks a couple of weeks ago. That beating was so thorough, I just don't think the Ducks match up with the Utes well. It will be closer due to the second game syndrome, but the Utes should win. Ore: 17--Utah: 24

Seeberg:  We all know the "tough to beat a good team twice in a season" adage.  The first meeting between these two was SO one-sided, however, it's hard to imagine the Ducks making up such a wide margin, even with a slightly healthier roster than the last go-round.  Besides, even if the Ducks manage to win this rematch they'd get a rude awakening in the Rose Bowl.  But no worries, they'll drop this one regardless.  Ore:24--Utah: 34

SATURDAY

Big 12: Baylor Bears vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Draper: Can the Pokes finish the job? I don't know if everyone understands that Okie State is in serious contention to be in the CFP.  While the Big 12 is 50 ft. of crap (that's losing their 2 biggest names), the Cowboys' defense has been phenomenal.  Baylor has quietly also had a great season with Coach Dave Aranda being targeted left and right (although I think he re-signed with the Bears).  I don't think the Bears are in with a win, I actually think it's very likely the Pokes hop in (look out Cincy...).  Mike Gundy continues one of his best season ever and ends with a Big 12 title.  Bay: 17--OkSt: 24

Hoying: When you see rematches, rematches everywhere during another Championship Saturday, it helps to examine the previous meeting and see if there was any fluky trend that tipped the result in the wrong direction. And no, this was just a standard grind it out defensive victory by 2021 OSU (aaagh). If anything, the fluke in these teams' prior matchup was that Cowboy QB Spencer Sanders was picked off three times. Don't bother trying to take any lessons away from Bedlam last week, other than congratulations on being the weirdest game in the weirdest season since 2007. It's been a nice ride, Baylor, but we'll find another team to take your NY6 slot. Time to start sweating, Cincinnati. Bay: 20--OkSt: 27
Schweinfurth: Baylor had that darling look about them for about the first half of the year. Now, it's OK State. Gundy has the Pokes playing about as well as anyone. For some reason, I smell a shootout. Bay: 35--OkSt: 42

Seeberg: Honestly?  I said it before and I'll say it again:  I gave up trying to figure out the Big XII about halfway through the year.  Still, trusting the Cowboys paid dividends last week.  I'd love to see Baylor win (along with Georgia and others) to produce some chaos for the committee, but the Cowboys play solid football and minimize mistakes, a crucial component of a team this late in the season (see:  Ohio State last week).  Who knows?  Maybe an OSU will make the playoff after all *shrugs*  Bay: 24--OkSt.--31 

SEC: Georgia Bulldogs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

Draper: Sigh....It's just....sigh....  This game potentially has monstrous implications for the playoff.  Many think that Bama and UGA are both in regardless.  However, the loser is on the edge.  If you look at these teams' resumes, you find that the quality wins are severely lacking.  UGA has been dominant on defense all year, but who's their best win? Auburn? Clemson?  What about Bama? Auburn in 4 OT? Ole Miss?  Bama should be out with a loss, but UGA becomes an interesting case if UM, OkSt, and Cincy all win.  The Bama name itself was enough to beat the Tigers last week (talent wasn't the reason).  Can the past haunt the Dawgs with an offense that simply isn't as good as thought?  I think it might.  Bama is led by former Buckeye and Biletnikoff finalist (over Earth, Wind, and Fire for some reason), Jameson WIlliams, and they sneak out a win over a relatively untested UGA after a late game crapping away.  UGA: 23--Bama: 24

Hoying: Welcome to Footballmageddon week 2, although, ironically, with much less on the line than last week's headliner in Ann Arbor. Georgia is likely already locked into a Playoff spot win or lose, and after last week's miracle escape from Jordan Hare, the Tide are well positioned to steal the #4 spot with a loss if enough other games break their way. The Dawgs have been doing their best 2019 Ohio State impression after a surprising-in-hindsight tight victory over Clemson in the season opener. But along the way, who has really had the tools to challenge them? Kentucky? Arkansas? The nasty truth the SEC this year is that most teams are clustered around the 6-6 range, and Georgia has been fortunate to escape the more elite teams toward the top of the standings. Alabama, by contrast, has been through the wringer of the West, but not with style. Scoring 3 points in the first 59 minutes against 6-6 Auburn is not going to impress anyone, especially on the heels of giving up 35 to Arkansas. Georgia's defense continues to be the best in the nation to a severe outlier degree (their two closest competitors, Wisconsin and Oklahoma State, both got a bit exposed in their rivalry games), but a better kept secret is that the Dawgs have one of the nation's most efficient offenses as well. They just haven't had to do anything this year. I'm a little concerned how Georgia will hold up once they get punched in the mouth by a real threat. Tennessee shook them around for a little while before the dreadnought righted itself (could you imagine being dumb enough to pick Tennessee to pull that upset off?), but I'm not sure the Bulldogs are battle tested enough to stroll to their first national title in 40 years. I think we won't find out the answer to that question against Alabama. I really hope we don't find out the answer against Michigan in the Playoff. Georgia gets revenge for 2018 (and 2017, and 2012) and FINALLY gets the Saban monkey off their back. UGA: 27--Bama: 20

Schweinfurth: Bama has been flirting with disaster for the entire second half of the season. Their defense is capable, but not quite to the standard we are used to seeing. Georgia's defense is for real. It is championship season, and Saban's teams always bring their best when there is a trophy involved. I just don't see it materializing this year. UGA: 28--Bama: 17

Seeberg:  I have to be honest, until last week (and admittedly I may be knee-jerk overreacting to that performance), I was leaning Bama in this one.  UGA really hasn't played anyone in quite some time, and Bama's typically potent offense would easily be the stiffest test for this vaunted Bulldog D.  Then Bama literally forgot to score for FIFTY-THREE BLEEPING MINUTES and somehow slithered to an atrocious 4-OT win against 6-loss (lol) Auburn.  At that rate, it might take 153 minutes to put points on the board against Georgia this season.  Either way, it's a race to 20, and I can't fathom the Tide making it there after last week.  UGA "pulls away" late.  UGA: 24--Bama: 16

AAC: Houston Wildcats @ Cincinnati Bearcats

Draper: Don't care.....Cincy is clearly the superior team, but they need to finish the job.  Fickell remains in the first Cincy victory, the 2nd would be an AAC championship, and the 3rd would be a playoff berth.  If Cincy wins convincingly, I think they're safe....maybe. However, there is always the chance that they get complacent down the stretch.  Fickell will rally the troops to care care of business and prepare to get wrecked in the semis.  Hou: 24--UC: 34

Hoying: It's all at your fingertips, UC. You've cracked the top 4, your coach isn't leaving for Notre Dame, USC, or LSU, and you have one last shot at a quality (but not too daunting) opponent to leave a last good impression on the Committee. Should the Bearcats be worried about Houston? Not really. Sure, they're undefeated in the AAC, but *waves hands dismissively*, and they got suffered an embarrassing lead-squandering loss to Texas Tech to start the season. UC has snapped out of whatever midseason funk that was causing them to sleepwalk through a few forgettable games. The hopes and dreams of the entire Group of 5 rest on you, Coach Fick. Go get it. Hou: 20--Cin: 31
Schweinfurth: Big props to Fickell for sticking with the Bearcats. That is no small thing and should amp Cincy up even more for this one. Houston is a fine team, but they are standing in the way of Group of 6 history. Bearcats win and on to the playoffs. Hou: 17--Cin: 35

Seeberg:  So.  Much.  Drama.  The coaching carousel has jumped into hyperdrive/up to 11/engaged at warp 9/whatever pop culture reference to something being fast.  Fickell staying with the Bearcats is huge, but we are literally in unprecdented times with a group of five team firmly established in the top 4.  It has GOT to be difficult for the Bearcats to tune out the noise and focus on the task at hand.  I'm sorry, what's the Houston?  I know, nobody knows you're in the game (and ranked!)  either.  I sense that Cinci will come out TOO hyped and fire an INT or even two.  I may be an eternally pessimistic individual, but with everything that swirled around Hamilton County this week I just don't see a solid, workman like Cincinnati effort.  This is Houston's playoff, and it will show from the opening kick.  Great run while it lasted, UC.  HOU: 31--Cin: 28

ACC: Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Draper: Both of these teams have been in a NY6 bowl in the BCS era....shocker, right? They were also among the worst BCS teams to snag a bid (hello, UConn!).  Kenny Pickett has had a fantastic year leading him to begin a quiet rise up the draft boards.  Wake just messed around all year to get a 10-win season and an ACC Atlantic title.  This is an ACC Wheel of Destiny type of game, but Pitt seems to have the edge.  I think they pull it out.  Put Pitt in! Pitt: 35--Wake: 24

Hoying: Start your engines, boys. Both of these teams rank in the top ten of scoring offense, and one of them (*cough Wake*) doesn't play defense so good. After a scorching hot start, the Demon Deacons morphed into more of a flaming wreck down the stretched but still managed to lock Florida State and Clemson out of the Atlantic division title for the first time since 2008. Pitt, meanwhile, has to be kicking themselves after gagging away two winnable games against Western Michigan and Miami. Win those and Pitt would be win-and-in against the Deacons this Saturday, but they'll have to settle for their first appearance in an NY6 bowl. Pickett outduels Hartman as the Panthers earn their first ACC championship. Pitt: 41--Wake: 31
Schweinfurth: Wake just hasn't looked the same since their first loss. It was almost as if they were figured out and everyone copied. The Deacons have been a great story so far, but Pitt pulls it out. Who saw that coming before the year started...Pitt: 38--Wake: 35

Seeberg:  In stark contrast to the contest below, this one will have...crap, what's it called?  Oh yeah...offense!  Other than the big SEC tilt, this will be the one to watch for entertainment value while you put up with your degenerate gambler cousin tell you he "almost" took that 4000:1 shot at the start of the season where Pitt and Wake Forest would wind up foes in the conference championship game.  Reminder, Wake scored 55 points in a LOSS this year.  Impressive in a less-than-positive way.  Can't imagine the Deacons will get enough stops against maybe the only offense in the conference more potent than their own.  Panthers in a fun one.  Pitt: 45--Wake: 37

Big Ten: Michigan Wolverines vs. Iowa Hawkeyes

Draper: A little real talk...my picks have been atrocious since midseason.  Sometimes, I've been unlucky, and sometimes, just dumb. Regardless, while I'm picking with my heart, most of my picks are against my desires.  Perhaps I'm hedging, perhaps just throwing darts, but I'm hoping most of these picks tank. That being said, the Wolverines defense (especially, Hutchinson) is the real deal.  The best description of Iowa was on twitter recently brought up by Bill Connelly....you seem to be in the game, then a quick turnover, you wake up, and realize the game is over.  Is there going to be a regression to the mean after the Wolverines got their big win? I don't think so.  Iowa is such a weird team, anything could happen....but I'm afraid doomsday may arrived.....I hate them.  Mich: 24--Iowa: 13

Hoying: *hurp* this is going to be a tough one. Harbaugh's *other* really good team, the one that came about an inch from an overtime win against Ohio State, suffered three losses. One was to the Buckeyes in the greatest edition of The Game ever. One was to #10 Florida State in the Orange Bowl on a last minute touchdown. And the third, was to Iowa. Not Playoff semifinalist Iowa. Not top 10 Iowa. Just regular, 8-5, standard Kirk Ferentz Iowa. Was it a trap game? I doubt it; the Wolverines played Maryland the week before and Indiana the week after. The Hawkeye defense simply swarmed the Wolverines, putting Speight out of his element and scoring a safety that exceeded the winning margin. And wouldn't you know it: that's exactly what the 2021 Hawkeyes have been doing, all the way from flummoxing Michael Penix in the opener to the tune of a 45% completion rate and 3 INTs, to doing much the same against Illini QB (and former Wolverine) Brandon Peters two weeks ago. (Don't ask about the Nebraska game, poor Nebraska has managed to be THE weird team in a weird year, although it's worth noting that the Hawkeyes beat the Huskers by a larger margin than Michigan did.) So, is there a reason to hope for a competitive matchup on Saturday in Indianapolis? Lol, are you serious? Maybe if Michigan doesn't get off the bus. You want to talk about defenses making QB's look uncomfortable? CJ Stroud was running for his life from Aidan Hutchinson on about every play that Treveyon didn't take the bullet for him. And you don't need to worry about the state of your passing game when you can put the team on Haskins and Corum's shoulders. Did you see what Wisconsin did to Iowa in October? This Saturday will be like that, but a million times worse. And yes, the Buckeyes would have done the same damn thing if they could have gone to Indianapolis this weekend instead. 2021 is the year of the weasel. Mich: 30--Iowa: 13

Schweinfurth: Did you watch the release in Ann Arbor last week? One gets the feeling that last week was the Wolverine's championship game. I've seen this story before, only a few hours south. The Game is such an emotional and physical drain, especially when you get a win for the first time in a decade. And they were still spouting off all week as if the Buckeyes were their opponent in the B1G Championship game. Iowa knows who they are and actually has a run defense to speak of. I...can't...pick...Harbaugh. This really feels like a let down game. Mich: 13--Iowa 16

Seeberg:  Won't be any surprises here.  We know what these two squads do and don't do.  It comes down to a few questions.  Can UM maintain last week's insanely high level?  No.  Is Iowa equipped to take advantage?  Not enough.  Am I lucky enough to see the Wolverines crash and burn after last week's dare-not-touch-the-sun performance?  To that I say HA...and no.  UM squeaks into the CFP *throws up in mouth*.  UM: 20--Iowa: 16

Week 13: Nowhere To Run

Standings:

1.) Seeberg 35-12 (3-9 upset)
2.) Draper 34-13 (4-8 upset)
2.) Hoying 34-13 (4-8 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 34-13 (3-9 upset)

Here we stand, once again, Wolverines. You know what you did last year. Unfortunately for you, Ryan Day's offer didn't include an expiration date. Enjoy your centuplicate.

THANKSGIVING

_ississippi Rebels @ _ississippi State Bulldogs
Draper: Who doesn't love a good Egg Bowl? Can we top an ending in which a player pretended to urinate on the goalpost and drew a penalty which cost the rivalry? I don't know, but I know that this contest features the two coaches with the greatest chance of insanity.  Joey Freshwater has the Rebs flying high in the top ten....but...why? A nice win over the Aggies 2 weeks back, but nothing terribly awe-inspiring.  With that said, Leach and Co. also fail to push the needle with their body of work.  Honestly, the Bulldogs season looks nearly equivalent.  Both beat the Aggies and got destroyed by the Tide.  The best solution in this situation....keep tranquil and CLANGA. I just can't quit Leach.  Rebs: 42-Dogs: 45
Hoying: Leachball is back in full force in Stark Vegas, as the Bulldogs have one of the few passing offenses in the nation outpacing C.J. Stroud, along with virtually zero rushing threat. But the better QB is still probably the erstwhile Davey O’Brien candidate Corral for the Rebs. The Lane train is still running hot after a suffocating victory over the Texas Aggies and I think the D holds against the air raid, followed by a 1-2 counterattack with Corral and Reb RB Jerrion Early. Rebs: 34—Dogs: 27
Schweinfurth: Egg in a Bowl...er Egg Bowl!! The Bulldogs have hung around so far, but Little Lane has had the Rebs defense playing better. The Rebels should win this one. Rebs: 38--Dogs: 35

Seeberg:  Tough to figure out the Bulldogs this year, feast (beat the Aggies and won at Auburn), or starvation (lost to Louisiana and Tennessee-based Tigers in consecutive weeks).  We know these two offenses can score in bunches, but the clanga crowd should help the Dogs' D get enough stops, and perhaps a turnover or two.  Bulldogs' repel the rebels.  Rebs: 31-Dogs: 34

SATURDAY

Oklaho_a Sooners @ Oklaho_a State Cowboys
Draper: This contest is truly interesting.  The Pokes and Sooners appear to collide with the little brother ruining the big dog's year....but the roles are (kinda) reversed.  Both squads have an outside shot of the playoff with a slight edge to OkSt.  Caleb's shine has worn off a bit, but the question is 'can the Pokes step up to the plate on the biggest of stages?'  The gut says to revert to priors and lean on the Sooners to get it done, but the Cowboy defense has been a force of late and the Sooners haven't looked the part all year. Lee Corso said it best, I have a cousin that went to Stillwater for his degree....Go Pokes! OU: 20--OkSt: 27

Hoying: We return to everyone’s favorite Spencer vs. Spencer showdown, although the Sooners will probably go with Caleb to start the action on Saturday. Of course, they tried that two weeks ago against Baylor and got stonewalled when Caleb ground the offense to a halt (speaking of erstwhile Davey O’Brien candidates). Turning to Spencer Rattler didn’t effect a lick of difference. Then again, that was against the Bears, who are only allowing 19 points a week. Now the Sooners get the Cowboys, who give up…15 points a week? Uh oh. The Sooners have consistently struggled to push the ball against solid defenses (and Kansas) and I don’t expect their fortunes to change this week. OU: 13--OkSt: 24
Schweinfurth: The B12's playoff hopes look like they are on the Cowboys at this point. The Sooners just don't have the juice the year. Rattler isn't the answer and apparently, neither is Caleb. At this point, I have to believe the Sooners are a two loss squad. The 'Boys keep the B12 playoff hopes alive. OU: 17--OSU: 28

Seeberg:  Anyone think the Cowboys and not the Sooners would be the likelier squad that could rep?  Nope, neither did I.  Back to back wins against the Sooners and the Baylor Bears COULD be enough to let the CFP bail out of taking a non-p5 opponent.  Step one?  Beat your hated rivals...and OU has appeared to worsen as the season has gone on, so let's take it there early and often.  OU: 24--OkSt- 31

_aryland Terrapins @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Draper: Does anybody really know what bowl the winner goes to? Does anybody really care? The answer is a resounding no. Can the Terps derail the Schiano Train? I think I'll lean on the group with a new experience on the line. It's been seven long years since the Knights graced the Quick Lane Bowl.  That's just too big a prize to sleep on.  It's Buttgers' hour! Terps: 24--Rut: 31

Hoying: Be honest, to what extent have you seen of either of these two this season, other than being part of Ohio State’s Evisceration October? It was fun to see the updates of last week’s Rutgers-Penn State tilt, featuring 12 straight punts to start the afternoon (and another 5 straight out of the half). Yeah, Penn State’s offense isn’t that great, but at least a result like that gives this writer hope that the Scarlet Knights can play a bit of defense. Both of these offenses are going to be awful, but past results this year suggest that the Terps’ attack will be just a little bit awfuller. Is it wrong to hope for a 10 OT atrocity with the final score I’ve predicted? Terps: 16--Rut: 18

Schweinfurth: Which Taulia do we get to watch? Good Taulia, or Bad Taulia. It's funny, because you know exactly how this will go depending on his play. Schiano continues to rebuild Rutgers, and there is talent there. I'll take the Knights. Terps: 31--Rut: 35

Seeberg:  Yay for trophy-centric rivalry contests?  (Or not).  Regardless, this one is being contested on Saturday too.  And that's about all the attention it warrants.  Fire the (non-Blue Jacket) cannon boys.  Terps: 24--Rut: 28

Florida State Se_inoles @ Florida Gators

Draper: Rebuilding and all, this is when your season grows into a success.  There have been ups and a lot of downs, but if the Noles can get bowl eligible, beat their rival, AND keep the Gators outside of bowl eligibility, the season isn't lost.  While it's been a trying season, no one has fallen apart quicker or as holistically as the Gators.  Only one last thing needs to be said...TALKIN! FSU: 20--UF: 17

Hoying: This sure isn’t 1996. Don’t expect these two to face each other again a bowl, because the loser is enjoying New Year’s the way the rest of us do: eating out at Texas Roadhouse and playing WarioWare (or Wii Play, pick your poison). Fresh off playing the Tide within one possession for the second year in a row, Florida finally (?) decided to part ways with Darth Dan before their recruiting dried up entirely. The Gators, frankly, haven’t looked good this year since their inexplicable thrashing of a decent Tennessee squad in week 4, while the Noles have been quietly clawing their way up to quasi-respectability after losing to Jacksonville freaking State (not to be confused with Neon Deion’s Jackson State). Are these squads on different trajectories, or are these just the respective costs of doing business this year in the SEC (good) and ACC (blaaaagggh)? I don’t really expect Florida to rally around their fallen coach, and FSU will scrape and scrap to take any positives they can find in their post-Fisher purgatory. FSU: 27--UF: 24

Schweinfurth: Florida State vs Florida for a bowl! The state of both squads is nothing short of sad. Florida is in a tail spin with no way out. I guess the 'Noles have been consistent? Yea, I'll go with that. FSU: 24--UF: 21

Seeberg:  Ah yes, your older brother's days, when these squads were perennially gunning for titles, now relegated to a fully unranked clash with only bowl eligibility to play for.  Regardless, it will be a heated affair.  With all the disarray currently in Gainesville it would appear an easy FSU victory, but I can picture the Gators rallying around their new coach enough to sneak out a W, giving Greg Knox a bowl appearance to audition for the newly anointed coach.  FSU: 20--UF: 28

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ That School Up North

Draper: It is the reason for donning the scarlet and gray; It was taken away last year; and now, the hour of battle is nigh.  Top 5 titans collide once again for the right to go to Indy, for the right to contend for the CFP, but of principal gravity, because it has to be done.  The Wolverines have a stout defense (arguably the best to face the Scarlet and Gray this year) with stellar defensive ends, but the Boilers ran into this buzzsaw.  Stroud and friends have clicked on all cylinders of late.  The question is 'can the Buckeye Oline (full of NFL talent) protect the best player in the country to allow Earth, Wind, and Fire to create fireworks?'  There will be a few plays in which the foes will wreak havoc, but the balance of good will erupt out of the chaos to defeat the forces of evil.  As the D pins their ears back, look for Henderson to break a few and shock the wolverines with his speed.  Let's also not forget how the Bullets killed the candidacy of one Kenneth Walker III for the nation's top award.  The OSU defense (even including the first 2 HORRIBLE weeks against the Gophers and Ducks) sports the #11 rush defense (TTUN is #30).  I have faith that old Cade isn't going to be able to win this one on his own.  The Bucks bottle up the TTUN on the ground and while Hutchinson & Co. will hinder the explosive Buckeye passing attack, they cannot contain #7 (or #2, #5, or #11).  Lay a hundred on these losers.  OSU: 45--TTUN: 20

Hoying: I think it’s safe to say that spirits in central Ohio are a bit higher after the last two Buckeye buttkickings than after the previous two struggle bus stops. Yes, the Buckeyes will be leaving the friendly confines for this one, but, top 5 ranking notwithstanding, their opponent is not built to stop this Ohio State onslaught. I’ve been hearing for weeks about how the Wolverines are well equipped to keep pace with the Buckeyes in a way no other school on their schedule has been able to do since Oregon, and I gotta tell you, I just don’t see it. Those vaunted Wolverine strengths? The pass rush? Ohio State has the edge on sacks, 35-29. The rushing attack? Ohio State leads the nation at 5.82 yards/rush (the Wolverines are just about a full yard below this). The only true edge the skunk weasels have is in the secondary. But I have bad news for any fans up north: the Buckeye secondary is facing Cade (or worse, JJ) & friends, while the yellow and blue back seven are facing one of the greatest juggernaut passing attacks in college football history. Oh, sure, just play two-high and send your ends upfield to pressure Stroud as fast as you can. See what TreVeyon and the slobs have to say about that. I guess this one could be close if the Buckeyes turn the ball over a bunch or forget how to tackle, but the gap (talent, preparation, coaching, or otherwise) between these two is as wide as ever. Go Bucks. OSU: 41--TTUN: 20
Schweinfurth: This has the feel it's supposed to have. A top 5 contest with TTUN actually holding up their end of the bargain. I get the sense that the Buckeyes are ticked off after Harbaugh tried to save face by waving the white flag TTUN's COVID outbreak last year (it's not like they had a hard practice the next day...). The Buckeye's schedule has been slowing building to this crescendo and they have a season's worth of scars to lean into. TTUN looks like a one trick pony on offense and Cade is a serviceable QB. Stuff the two headed beast in the Wolverine backfield, and I think Harbooger panics. Day has created a habit of carpet nuking this rivals and he is bringing the Scarlet and Gray Death Star into the Big House. The Buckeye offense is just so explosive, I can't see a way this is close past the first quarter. Bucks win again and onto Indy! BEAT BLUE!!! OSU: 49--TTUN: 14

Seeberg:  Full disclosure- as a child of the Cooper era, this contest will ALWAYS cause the nerves to escalate!  Sadly, this year is no different.  The Buckeye O is absolutely zipping along right now, but begrudgingly, TTUN possesses two elite defensive ends that could even give our excellent pass-blocking line a few issues.  AND they can suddenly kinda/sorta/perhaps/nearly throw the ball too, to the tune of nearly 400 yards against their not-so-little brother.  CJ's toughest experience to date was the opener against the Gophers, and this will undoubtedly be several notches tougher.  The utter destruction of our northern rivals cannot continue indefinitely, and could cease with this one.  In the end, however, I just flat out don't trust a Harbaugh-led offensive unit to outscore this iteration of the OSU juggernaut.  Bucks head to Indy- and I kinda want to find seats! OSU: 41--TTUN: 24

Upset Special
Draper: South Carolina over Cle_son
Hoying: LSU over Texas A&_
Schweinfurth: Auburn over Ba_a
Seeberg:  Texas Tech over Baylor

Week 12: The Whole State: Part One

Standings:

1.) Seeberg 33-11 (3-8 upset)
2.) Draper 31-13 (4-7 upset)
2.) Hoying 31-13 (4-7 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 31-13 (3-8 upset)

The Buckeyes' severely backloaded schedule ramps up in earnest as they face the second of what will hopefully a stretch of six consecutive ranked opponents. Marquee games are rare across the landscape (in sharp contrast to last Saturday and next Saturday) but a couple of leading Playoff contenders are on serious upset alert.

Arkansas Razorbacks @ Alabama Crimson Tide
Draper: Arkansas has been a fun story all year and at coming off a big OT win in the boot game.  Buuuut....Bama.  The Tide don't look phenomenal every week, but seem to win by a ton...every week (except UF and TAMU).  I think the Hogs make it interesting early as Alabama sleepwalks a bit early, but the passing game with Jameson Williams is too much.  Ark: 17--Bama: 34
Hoying: You can set your watch by the Tide this season. Blowout, blowout, clunker. Blowout, blowout, clunker. Blowout...well, that determines the outcome of this one. Stay tuned for a clunker against a BoNix-less Auburn next week I guess. Seriously, though, I don't see a way for the Razorbacks to gain an edge on Alabama. The Hogs lean heavily on their running game, and Alabama's D is sitting at a comfy #3 in the nation in rushing yards per attempt (right behind Georgia and Wisconsin). The Razor D is pretty meh, so expect Tide QB Bryce Young to keep pace with CJ Stroud this week in the Heisman race. Ark: 13--Bama: 37
Schweinfurth: I'm not gonna break this one down. Bama is still really good. Arkansas is not. Bama by a million. Ark: 10--Bama: 45

Seeberg: Hey, nice to see the Razorbacks still relevant this season. Feels like they've been lost in the SEC West shuffle lately. Unfortunately they will be permanently relegated to oblivious after a trip to Tuscaloosa. Nice to see a non-cupcake down south this week anyway. Ark: 17--Bama: 38

Oregon Ducks @ Utah Utes
Draper: This one is suuuuper interesting.  The Ducks started to look the part over the last few weeks, but Utah is sneaking around the chicken coop looking to poison the Pac 12's drinking water. This is almost guaranteed to be a preview of the Pac12 title game (rematches...<barf>), but having this one in Salt Lake makes for some Pac12 after dark (kinda) action.  This game gets weird in Utah.  Can Utah Swoop in to take away the CFP dollars? My signs point to yes.  Ore: 20--Utah: 21

Hoying: *Spider-Men pointing at each other.gif" Here we have Oregon going to visit what appears to be slightly-better-Oregon. Utah, like the Ducks, likes to run the ball, and doesn't pass so well (but a bit better than Oregon). Utah's schedule has been a bit tougher (other than the obvious) and they've navigated a couple of early stumbles to put together some solid performances recently. Oregon, likewise, seems to be hitting its stride after back-to-back awful performances against Stanford and Cal (incidentally, enjoy the Big Game this weekend). If this game were in Eugene, I'd probably roll with the Ducks, but Utah was able to handle Arizona State and UCLA at home relatively easily, and I expect their fortunes to continue this week. Ore: 24--Utah: 27
Schweinfurth: Look, Oregon is ripe to lose another game this year. That Verdell injury will have to come back to bite them at some point. I really just don't think it's this week. The Ducks still have Thibodeaux, and he is as close to a game wrecker as they come. I think Oregon squeaks this one out. Ore: 21--Utah: 17

Seeberg: Still laughing out of derision that the Ducks stay ahead of the scarlet and gray in the CFPoop rankings (while UM stays ahead of MSU *facepalm*). Regardless, Vegas knows the truth which is why the Ducks are 3-point dogs against a barely ranked Utah squad while OSU is nearly a 3-touchdown favorite against a top-10 opponent. Sadly, the Utes won't have enough juice to clear the Pac-12 leaders out of the way. Ducks: 31--Utes: 24

Michigan State Spartans @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes 

Draper: This looks to be what I thought the PSU game was going to be.  Penn State showed that the Illinois game was a blip on their defensive radar.  MSU's defense, however.....woof.  Sparty has a fantastic back in Kenneth Walker, but I just don't think he'll be able to carry the load against a stout Buckeye run defense (check the tape, since Oregon, they've only allowed 70 or so yards on the ground per game).   Payton Thorne has been able to hit some big time throws, but there aren't enough to match with Stroud.  They'll try to take the air out of the ball and shorten the game because every time the Buckeyes touch the ball, look to the end zone. The Buckeye offense has to be salivating to get into this matchup.  Purdue dropped to 49th overall in defense after getting shellacked by this OSU offense (I believe they were top 30 prior).  MSU on the other hand....111th overall.  Wilson was the guy last week, but I just don't see this offense being stopped.  With Wilson, Olave, Smith-Njigba, and Henderson to deal with (not to mention Williams, Ruckert, and a million other weapons), what is any defense (let alone a bad defense) to do? Stroud rips through the MSU defense and vaults to the clear leader in the Heisman rankings after another offensive clinic in a dominating win over a top 10 team.  MSU: 24--OSU: 56 

Hoying: What do you do with a busted defense? What do you do with a busted defense? What do you do with a busted defense early in the...afternoon? Last week I dismissed any concerns regarding Purdue's offense, saying they only looked so good against Michigan State because the Spartan defense is nonexistent. After all, Purdue put up 40 against Sparty and then...put up 31...against Ohio State. Huh. OK, even if the Ohio State defense is on Michigan State's level, the offenses are not in the same ballpark. While it's true that the Buckeyes were gift-wrapped a couple of short fields to race out to an early lead last week, the offense still moved the ball at will all day, scoring touchdowns on their first 6 drives, committing zero turnovers and punting once! MSU's offense is not so efficient, essentially playing the game of their lives against Big Brother and white knuckling out lackluster wins against Nebraska and Indiana before getting badly exposed in West Lafayette. I'm going to knock a few points off the final margin because Ohio State has a nasty history of underperforming the week before The Game (see 2000, 2002, 2004, 2007, 2010, 2014, 2015 (ack), 2016, 2018), but that'll go more on the "defense misses a few tackles on Walker" rather than expecting Olave, Wilson, or Smith-Njigba to drop anything or Stroud to suddenly start missing his marks. Weather forecast? Mostly cloudy, with light winds, which means 100% chance of Buckeyes raining TDs. MSU: 31--OSU: 45
Schweinfurth: Let's be honest, no one had Michigan State in the top 10 at all this year. Yet here we are with two weeks to play. This is a team that has put the dagger into many a season for the Ohio State faithful. The bright spot for the Buckeyes, the Spartans can get torched downfield. Oh look, here comes the best WR room in the country. Wilson, Olave, and Smith-Njigba are going to feast this week. Defensively, just don't let Walker bust the big runs and keep everything in front of you. Can Sparty pull the upset? Yes. Will they? Probably not. Stroud for Heisman ratchets up a little more. MSU: 21--OSU: 49

Seeberg: Ah yes, the vaunted Spartans come to town, looking to ruin another Buckeye season (see: 2015, 1998). This iteration, however, has a large weakness that this OSU team is constructed to exploit: they cannot stop the pass. Even UM's laughable pass offense racked up nearly 400 yards through the air - mostly while building their 16-point lead, not coming from behind. Sparty's offense is led by a legitimate Heisman candidate and they do have some balance, but there's just no chance they can contain this Buckeye offense with any consistency. Last home game for me in person for awhile as we are expecting a new addition to the family by late February, so Go Bucks! MSU: 27--OSU: 48

Upset Special
Draper: SMU over UC
Hoying: Iowa State over Oklahoma
Schweinfurth: Nebraska over Wisconsin
Seeberg: Illinois over Iowa

Week 11: Silver Bullet Dodgers

Standings:

1.) Seeberg 30-9 (3-7 upset)
2.) Hoying 29-10 (4-6 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 29-10 (3-7 upset)
4.) Draper 28-11 (4-6 upset)

After 3 long years of waiting, the Buckeyes are finally aboard the revenge train. Fun fact: the Buckeyes haven't lost back-to-back games to a Big Ten opponent since...(Michigan State? no. Penn State? uh-uh. Michigan? lol.) Wisconsin, in 2003 and 2004. Here's to keeping a streak alive.

Also, every other power conference gets a ranked matchup this week, too! Except the Pac-12, because, well, you know.

Michigan Wolverines @ Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions
Draper: This has all the makings of a...pretty good game.  I have been saying all year that I believe the other top B1G teams are mirages and this is the second test for both.  Penn State came out much stronger than I thought against the Buckeyes (credit to them) and I think they'll be flying around here.  Michigan finally got caught by Sparty but responded nicely against IU.  The big question is: can the Wolverines respond in a MUCH tougher environment than they faced in East Lansing? Clifford seems to be back to normal, which makes this Lion offense look much different than it did in the losses to Iowa and Illinois.  Cade McNamara is nothing special so it comes down to strength on strength in the Wolverine rushing attack vs. the PSU defense.  If the Lions ball out like they did against the Buckeyes (no reason to think they won't at home), I think the home field advantage carries the day...just barely.  I probably should pick Michigan since my picks have been SO bad lately, but I'll go with the Lions.  UM: 17--PSU: 20
Hoying: This isn't a ranked matchup because somehow Wisconsin and Auburn are ranked, but Penn State, who beat both of them, is not. The good news is if the Lions can pull off the home win, they'll definitely be in the rankings next week. The better news is that one of these teams will have to lose, because I hate them both. Who has the edge this time? Do you remember Ohio State trying to run the ball on Penn State? Guess who is much more reliant on the run than Ohio State is? I'm not saying that Michigan is more potent in the run game than Ohio State (this week will tell us a lot about whether that's the case), but they're in a great deal more trouble if the run game doesn't work. Cade McNamara isn't going to catch fire unless he's playing a bad secondary (see my writeup  for the Ohio State game below for who that team could be) and Penn State doesn't fit that profile. Michigan is also developing problem finishing in the red zone, which doomed them against Michigan State's pedestrian defense. Uh-oh. Penn State isn't exactly setting the world on fire on offense, either, but unfortunately for UM, Sean Clifford appears to finally be back to 100%, which should give Penn State the slight (slight) edge at QB to go with their edge at WR with Jahan Dotson. Just enough to eke out a win in front of the home crowd. UM: 20--PSU: 24

Schweinfurth: Oh look, Harbaugh is taking is circus on the road again. Nothing bad could possibly happen against a team with a decent QB and an elite receiver...right. From what I can tell, Penn State has a very good defense, but so does Michigan. Michigan can run the ball, but Penn State can't. It may not matter though. I can totally see Penn State bottling up the Wolverine running tandem. They did a pretty good job against the Buckeye backfield.This should come down to QB play as I said earlier. Who do you trust more, Clifford or McNamera? I'm going with Clifford because he isn't a statue and he had Dotson on the outside. Add in the Penn State crowd, yea it's a no doubter. UM: 17--PSU: 21

Seeberg:   Ah yes, TTUN vs. PSU where we separate the pretenders from the...slightly more competent pretenders??  Technically our neighbors to the north still have everything to play for, not the case for our eastern-border friends.  The Wolverines suddenly had a passing attack against Little Brother and still managed to choke away a 16-point lead.  I would imagine MSU and PSU have comparable defenses, but Penn State's secondary is superior which should make UM one-dimensional- in the dimension they typically prefer.  I trust neither QB, but I thought UM was the better squad.  One bad quarter on the road in a rivalry game shouldn't define their season, so Harbaugh gets them back on track with a late W (after a final pick of Clifford, of course).  UM: 24--PSU: 20

Oklahoma Sooners @ Baylor Bears
Draper: Can Caleb WIlliams be stopped by someone OTHER than Kansas (kinda)? Baylor has quietly put together a nice season while the Sooners seem to be dodging bullets in every game this year.  Will a team in the 'vaunted' Big 12 be able to challenge the big dog? I know Williams has been great, but I have to imagine that there will be some chink in the armor that eventually appears.  What better way for this to happen than having lowly Baylor sneaking around the chicken coup in Waco to remove one of the few remaining impediments to a playoff without controversy (right?).  Let's go with the Bears snakebiting the Sooners.  You can only play with fire so often.  OU: 38--Bay: 41
Hoying: Play time is over, Star Fox. After letting (7-loss) Nebraska and (5-loss) Texas hang around until the end of the game, OU has managed to find a couple of blowouts along their way to a healthy 9-0 start. But now they face the mother of all backloaded schedules, as the Big 12's #2, #3, and #4 teams are next on the slate. The good news is that the Sooners don't usually lose to any of these teams, least of all Baylor, whom the Sooners have beaten 7 times in a row, including twice in 2019 alone. This game should go a long way toward telling us whether Oklahoma has been a total sham this whole time (you'd think the Texas game would be a strong data point in the affirmative, but Caleb Williams did only play a little more than a half that day). The Sooners boast one of the top rush defenses in the country, which is bad news for a Baylor attack almost as dependent on the run as Michigan is. I don't think OU gets to 12-0, but I don't think this is the week that trips them up. Sooners stay undefeated...for now. OU: 35--Bay: 28
Schweinfurth: The Sooners look like they are waking up from their Spencer Rattler induced slumber. Are these last few blowouts a product of the opponent or actually waking up? I guess we find out soon. Baylor has mostly flown under the radar, but really I just trust the Sooners more. OU: 42--Bay: 38

Seeberg:  Not exactly the marquee Oklahoma versus a Texas school matchup we thought we'd get, but here we are.  OU can actually play a bit of defense this season, which has at times bailed out their uncharacteristically sputtering offense.  As lousy as that conference is they should still make the title game unblemished based solely on talent disparity.  Bears keep it close, Sooners show up just soon enough.  OU: 38--Bay: 28 

Texas A&M Aggies @ Mississippi Rebels

Draper: Another SEC also-ran game.  A&M has played fairly well since the huge win over Bama and no reason to think that changes this week.  The Aggies have been extremely impressive on defense, but the Lane Train might be able to throw in a wrench in the Grove.  Honestly, I don't think the Rebels have enough firepower to out scheme the more talented Aggies.  I could see Jimbo pooping this away and blaming his players, but I doubt it.  TAMU: 31--Miss: 17

Hoying: Why does it feel like we're picking the same game every week? Some combination of Auburn, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Arkansas...I guess that's what happens when you have that many good teams in the same division. If this were Roll Tide! blog instead of Let's Go Bucks! we'd probably be confused about all the Ohio State-Penn State-Michigan-Michigan State games instead. Anyway, Texas A&M's defense continues to be so hot right now, while Ole Miss's defense is more...derelicte. We all saw what BoNix did to the Rebels a couple of weeks ago; he just put up less than 4 yards per attempt against the Aggies D. Let's not forget that this was the team that rolled the Tide, no popcorn necessary. Vegas says this game will be close, but I don't see it. TAMU: 34--Miss: 20

Schweinfurth: Texas A&M has been playing much better since the Alabama upset. It's amazing what a little confidence will do for you. Ole' Miss has just kinda been hanging out and not doing too much. I don't trust either of these two teams, but I'll take A&M. TAMU: 28--Miss: 24

Seeberg:  This game looked a lot more intriguing with a fully healthy Matt Corral at QB for the Rebs.  He's gutting it out on game days but rarely (if ever) practicing.  Precision passing without reps is just too tough against a reasonable defense, which the Aggies possess.  TAMU gets a decent road win to complement the Bama W.  TAMU: 31--Miss: 24

North Carolina State Wolfpack @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Draper: Can Wake rebound from the loss of the perfect dream season? I don't think anyone saw the Demon Deacons spoiling the CFP party, but they can still win the ACC and dethrone the Tigers.  NC State is usually good for an upset here or there (see Clemson), but they don't have the consistency.  Wake is pretty consistent, but their defense has been awful of late.  Can they outscore the Pack? My time at FSU taught me one thing about playing Wake....their field is terrible and always caused a plethora of injuries. Let's see if it claims another foe when the team has a pulse.  NCSt: 31 -- Wake: 35

Hoying: Do you want to see a year without a Clemson ACC Championship as much as I do? The winner of this game is likely your only hope. NC State has the inside track due to offing the Tigers already, but due to a quirk of scheduling, Wake Forest's loss last week to North Carolina doesn't count against its conference record. As for this matchup, this is a classic clash of opposing styles. Wake Forest's high-flying offense is putting up over 44 points a game (notably, they scored 55 in their only loss), while NC State is allowing only 16 points per game, even better than the BRETT VENABLES Clemson Tiger defense. Time to pull my standard I-don't-know copout and choose the home team. You don't just walk into...Truist Field (not the baseball stadium). NCSt: 35--Wake: 38

Schweinfurth: I have watched exactly 0 minutes of either of these teams. Wake scores points in bunches. NC State is okay I guess. I really have no clue. I'll take Wake, I guess. I don't know. NCSt: 24--Wake: 42

Seeberg:  Fun fact:  I lived in Greensboro, NC for 6 years and have visited the "meh" Wake Forest stadium.  Never thought "exciting football!" would go in the same sentence but lo and behold the Deacs can score and score a ton.  Lots of Wolfpack fans in the area and Wake is a small school so I don't expect much of a home field advantage, but I do expect them to outscore the Pack regardless.  NCSt: 31--Wake: 41

Purdue Boilermakers @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes 

Draper: This Buckeye team has started playing on the edge again.  PSU and Nebraska are pretty good teams (regardless of the Huskers record, the 9 point victory for the Buckeyes was Nebraska's biggest margin of defeat on the season...including MSU, UM, and OU), but this O-line has to figure out the run game.  Henderson is too good to be running into defenders at every turn.  Purdue has a pretty solid defense that could cause some problems.  The 4 tackle approach at O-line has helped the pass blocking but the run blocking simply needs to improve.  CJ and his receivers will be fine (should be nice to get Wilson back this week), but I really would like to see some open lanes for Henderson to get to the 2nd level.  One thing that hasn't been mentioned enough is the incredible performance of the defense of late.  Last week, they had 2 meltdowns....2. Yes, they were really big meltdowns, but when this defense can minimize the explosives, they've been more or less shutting down the opposition.  My goals for this game (other than a win) is 1 or fewer explosive plays given up, 125 on the ground, and >2 explosives in the passing game.  I think that's doable in the Shoe if all the weapons are back.  Please, Buckeyes...let's have another one of those boring games by half.  PU: 24--OSU: 41
Hoying: OK, I've learned my lesson from last week. I'm not going to have my picks live or die based on whether the team is one-dimensional or not. Purdue was even more pass-happy than usual last week and it didn't stop them from rolling right over Michigan State. Does that result strike fear into the heart of Buckeye Nation? Because it shouldn't. Michigan State has the worst, that's right, the WORST, #130, pass defense in the nation in terms of yards per game allowed. Yes, they lead a lot in their games and that can skew the results a bit, but even Ohio State is allowing almost 80 fewer yards per game through the air. With Purdue's nonexistent run game not keeping the Rushmen honest, expect to see the recently resurgent Ohio State pass rush tee off on poor Aidan O'Connell, leading to a lot of sacks and forced turnovers. The biggest surprise in this one could be Purdue's surprisingly effective defense, which ranks #15 in defending the pass and #26 overall. That's better than either Penn State or Nebraska, and you may have noticed that the Buckeye attack has been having some trouble finishing drives against each of those teams. Of course, Ohio State still won each of those games by multiple scores, so the Buckeyes should be able to win this week even if the offense continues to bring their C-game. I, for one, would prefer a good old fashioned Buckeye blowout, with the between-the-20's juggernaut offense from the last couple weeks mixed with the lack of penalties and missed run block assignments we saw during the glorious midseason. I'm not holding my breath, though (by which I mean I'm going to be holding my breath all game long) as Ohio State's red zone woes seem to be a trend rather than an aberration. At least the Buckeyes didn't suffer their last giant upset because they traded FG's for TD's all first half long. Who was the team they were playing that day...? Buckeyes in a nailbiter (until they fix the red zone issues). Pur: 20--OSU: 30
Schweinfurth: Phew, the annual B1G West team after the Penn State game is over and the Bucks survived. At least there isn't a giant killer on the schedule before 2 huge games...what what? There is? And it's Purdue with an elite wide receiver. Oh no. Michigan State and Michigan have the Buckeyes' full attention. That much is never in question, but Purdue...I have nightmares of Purdue. The Buckeye offense isn't exactly firing on all cylinders right now and is doing enough to give everyone heartburn. Garrett Wilson should be back this week to give Stroud his safety blanket. The good news is that the Silver Bullets seem to be reemerging after a few year hiatus. This is a big test for Denzel Burke. David Bell is a beast and the Boilermaker passing game is going to stress this defense. I really don't think this game will be a cake walk for the simple fact that Purdue is better than everyone thinks. Let's see if Stroud and Co. can start executing in the Red Zone and on big 3rd downs. I shudder to think what will happen if these struggles continue. Bucks win, but closer than you think. Pur: 21--OSU: 31

Seeberg:   Ok, there's NO WAY this can happen THREE times in a year...right?  RIGHT??  Unfortunately, this iteration of the Boilermakers is actually *gasp* good.  We all know they have an elite WR option, but they're also giving up fewer points and yards per game than the silver bullets *double gasp*.  Fixing the red zone issues for the Bucks' O would all but guarantee a win, and not fixing them will all but lead to another "that didn't feel very good" win or potentially another L.  At home, with their full attention on the ranked Boilers, I can't fathom a loss.  I also will be in the stands on Saturday and I can't remember the last time I saw them lose at home twice in a season...but whenever it was (if it ever happened), it's not happening this week.  Bucks don't cover (21?  really Vegas?) but win nonetheless).  Pur: 20--OSU: 34

Upset Special
Draper: Washington St. over Oregon
Hoying: Tennessee over Georgia (you heard it here first)
Schweinfurth: Maryland over MSU
Seeberg:  Virginia over Notre Dame

Week 10: Big Red Noon Saturday

Standings:

1.) Seeberg 28-8 (3-6 upset)
2.) Hoying 27-9 (4-5 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 27-9 (3-6 upset)
4.) Draper 26-10 (4-5 upset)

Once again, if you want a ranked matchup, you'll have to look at a couple of second-tier teams in the SEC West. Otherwise, just enjoy the many upset opportunities while you wait for the backloaded schedules to pay off.

Michigan State Spartans @ Purdue Boilermakers
Draper: Since I am currently incapable of picking a non-OSU game correctly over the last 2 weeks, I don't know if I'd trust myself on this one.  However, this is the trap game of all trap games.  Purdue always snake bites teams, but they've already had their one this year.  David Bell is a solid WR, but I'm not convinced they'll be able to stop the Spartan running game.  Usually when a game is seen to be a guaranteed upset, it doesn't happen.  The expectations of the world will be for the Boilers to take their pound of flesh, but Kenneth Walker keeps Sparty chugging along.  MSU: 31--PU: 20
Hoying: The incomparable Ramzy Nasrallah of Eleven Warriors noted a series of odd coincidences between this year's Michigan State team and the 2002 National Champion Ohio State Buckeyes. And now the Spartans have to travel to Purdue, where one Big Ten team's national championship hopes have already gone to die during this very season. What made Purdue's surprise (to most people anyway) upset blowout of Iowa possible? The Boilers got it done on defense, forcing 4 turnovers and holding the Hawkeyes to 271 total yards. That's an easy feat when you're facing a team with zero offensive threats (thanks, Brian Ferentz), but as I wrote last week, Michigan State is adequately capable in both the air and ground games. Sure, Payton Thorne may have been exposed a bit against the Wolverines, but Kenneth Walker is still the real deal. Purdue's run defense is not great, not terrible, certainly not on Michigan's level, so the Boilers may have to score quite a bit to keep up with Sparty. And that's a bit of a problem. The Boilermakers have hit 24 points in B1G play once, and they needed 4 Iowa turnovers to help them to that point. The Aidan O'Connell to David Bell connection is solid (and a choking hazard for Hawkeyes), but remember what I said last week about being one-dimensional and beating Michigan State? Don't expect lighting to strike twice for Purdue (next week, either). MSU: 27--Pur: 17

Schweinfurth: This smells of a trap game. Huge comeback win against a hated rival? Check. Overmatched opponent on the road? Check. An explosive wide receiver on Purdue that can break the game open? NIGHTMARE FUEL! Is Sparty banged up? Probably a bit, but they have a running game and running games travel. Kennith Walker is a beast and he should get his yards and TDs. This game will most likely be unnecessarily close because Ronnie Bell is that good, but Sparty should hold on. MSU: 24--Pur: 21

Seeberg:   This feels like the Purdue-y-est of Purdue trap game wins.  Except they already did that to perennial B1G Coach of the Year Kirk Ferentz this season.  Sparty's offense isn't going to be held that far in check and make that many mistakes.  A lackluster start is likely, but too much talent for Sparty wins out.  MSU: 31--PU: 16

Auburn Tigers @ Texas A&M Aggies
Draper: I have no idea how to judge these SEC also-rans.  Auburn had a nice win over 'top 10' Ole Miss, but lost to PSU.  A&M took down the juggernaut of Bama and dropped inexplicable games to Miss St and Arkansas.  Regardless, the Aggies are pretty tough to beat in Kyle Field.  We saw good Bo Nix last week, I'm banking on bad Bo Nix this time.  Aub: 13--TAMU:24
Hoying: As BoNix goes, so go the Tigers. Last week he had the pleasure of throwing against air when facing the Ole Miss defense, but the Texas A&M pass defense is one of the tops in the nation. I feel like a fool taking the Aggies to win a game in November, but I trust Auburn less against a competent defense (see Penn State). Aub: 20--TAMU: 27
Schweinfurth: I really have no idea here. This game will depend on if one team decides to take the week off. This game is a Kyle Field, and TAMU plays very well at home. I guess we make that Bama loss look better here...but that's a different rant. Aub: 17--TAMU: 20

Seeberg:   The Tigers scored a solid win last week against Ole Miss...made far less impressive by the in-game departure of the Rebs' star QB.  Auburn (read:  erratic 9-year veteran Bo Nix) just doesn't travel well, as evidenced by their egg still sitting in Happy Valley from earlier this year.  Hard to imagine them fending off the 12th man for four quarters.  Aggies pull away late.  Aub: 16--TAMU 28

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Nebraska Cornhuskers

Draper: Nebraska is a frisky team that most of Buckeye Nation will discount, but every single loss for the Huskers has been within 1 score.  Scott Frost may be a dead coach walking, but a win over the big dog could provide a stay of execution.  The Buckeyes showed some chinks in the armor last week against PSU with the lack of a consistent running game, but that was likely due to a solid gameplan and a strong front 7 of the Lions.  There were also quite a few miscues by the Bucks that need to be cleaned up this week (and I think will be).  The PSU game was filled with some bad fortune (false start on 4th and 1, turnovers, etc.) but I expect the offense to fire back into shape this week.  Stroud has been fantastic on the road, and I think that continues.  I'd love an early offensive explosion this week to remove all doubt.  OSU: 42--Neb: 20
Hoying: Watch yourselves, Buckeyes. This could be a tight one. Ohio State is coming off a hard-fought emotional win against Penn State, while Nebraska is desperately searching for a statement win after losing 6 games they could've won, practically giving away the Michigan and Michigan State games late. Adrian Martinez is playing the best football of his career, and the Blackshirts have been able to grind offenses like Oklahoma's and Michigan State's to a practical standstill. The Huskers feature a tough red zone defense, which is bad news for an Ohio State team looking to rebound from scoring 1 TD in 6 trips last week. But let's get a little perspective: Penn State has the best red zone TD defense in the nation, and I don't expect the Buckeyes to be caught flat-footed twice, especially with the overall talent on the offensive line and at running back. On the other side of the ball, don't expect Nebraska to get away with nearly the holding that Penn State did (what are the odds of getting the same terrible officials in back-to-back weeks), so it'll be up to Nebraska's dual threat wonder to escape the once-again elite Buckeye pass rush and keep up with the OSU offensive juggernaut. The more I think about this game, the more confident I am that the Buckeyes can handle Nebraska with ease. NU don't have Penn State-level horses, their coach has been gacking away games since he got there, and it's not just realistic to expect the Buckeyes to leave so many points on the board again. OSU: 45--Neb: 24
Schweinfurth: A B1G West team on the road after a Penn State game. I've seen this before and it hasn't ended well (usually with the B1G West team putting up 55). The good news here is all the penalties and the general clunker feel from last week should have the Buckeye's attention. Nebraska is very good at stopping the run, so Henderson et al. may have a rough time getting started. No worries. I expect Olave and Wilson to step up big early and loosen up the Husker D. Nebraska may score early while Chambers serves his (stupid) suspension in the first half. Expect a few picks by the Buckeye D and Martinez has a tendency to throw it up for grabs. It feels like I shouldn't pick a multiple score win here with the way Nebraska has played some very good teams this year, but I will. Ohio State is too explosive on offense. OSU: 42--Neb: 21

Seeberg:   Make no mistake, Buckeye Nation, this is a legitimate game.  Nebraska is 2-6 against power five opponents this season...with a PLUS 41 POINT DIFFERENTIAL.  Yes, you read that right.  Two blowout wins- including one in conference against NW, and 6 one-possession losses.  Frost may be on his way out but he shouldn't be, that program won't do better.  Red-zone deficiencies were particularly troubling against Clemson in 2019 last week.  Did we forget Jeremy Ruckert exists for some reason?  That needs cleaned up, as do the penalties.  It should be competitive for a half, but Adrian Martinez- who I feel like has been there about as long as Bo Nix has been at Auburn- has a penchant for the spectacular...and the spectacular mistake.  A pick six somewhere in the mid-3rd to early 4th quarter should salt this one away.  OSU--41--Neb: 24

Upset Special
Draper: Liberty over Ole Miss
Hoying: Washington over Oregon
Schweinfurth: Northwestern over Iowa
Seeberg:  Tulsa over Cincinnati

Week 9: Pajama Jammy Jam

Standings:

1.) Seeberg 26-7 (2-6 upset)
2.) Draper 25-8 (4-4 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 25-8 (3-5 upset)
4.) Hoying 24-9 (4-4 upset)

November has (nearly) arrived, and it's time to separate the contenders from the pretenders. All eyes are on the Big Ten East, where the Fantastic Four start their round robin. Georgia faces their last serious SEC competition (read about that massacre somewhere else) while a couple of SEC West teams fight to stay relevant in the case that Alabama stumbles again.

Michigan Wolverines @ Michigan State Spartans
Draper: Who is the bigger mirage of 2021? Honestly, I don't know.  Both teams from that state up north are flying in undefeated with monstrous expectations, but I just don't buy it.  The final scores have looked good for most of UM's games due to late TDs skewing the result, MSU hasn't beaten anyone with a pulse, and both needed a prayer to beat Nebraska (who is honestly better than their record).  MSU is leaning on their stud RB Kenneth Walker, but I think the Wolverine tandem is a touch better.  Not to mention Aidan Hutchinson wreaking havoc from the DE spot.  McNamara is a problem for the maize and blue (despite what the homers tell you), but I think the other pieces are good enough to get Harbaugh's first top 10 road win at UM.  UM: 24--MSU: 21
Hoying: Welcome to the biggest game up north since, well, since I've been born (maybe 1999 was bigger, but that was earlier in the season). It's awfully late in the season for these two to be undefeated, but that might be because they ain't played nobody, Pawwwwwwwl. When your best wins are over Wisconsin for the visitors, and, well, Michigan State has no good wins, it's going to be tough to take you seriously until you make your mark in a prove-it game like this one. That being said, Michigan has generally been making quick work of its opponents, riding the most dominant running attack I've seen from the Wolverines since Mike Hart's mouth. Hey, maybe he has a role in the turnaround of the Wolverines' ground game this year behind the two-headed monster of Blake Corum and Hassan Haskins. This weekend should be a good test; the Spartans aren't impossible to solve but they are a good clip better than Rutgers on run D, who gave UM fits a few weeks ago. Michigan is no slouch on defense either, and they'll need to be at their best bottling up the nation's leading rusher, Kenneth Walker III, and Jayden Reed and Jalen Nailor will keep UM honest deep as well. I'm inclined go roll with the home team as their offense is far more balanced than Michigan's, but I think the Michigan defense will do just enough to...no, I can't do it. You can't be elite and one-dimensional, and Michigan's pass game is not good enough to beat the likes of the best of the BEast (aka, the tri-State area). Little Brother strikes again. UM: 24--MSU: 27

Schweinfurth: I certainly did not have Michigan and Michigan State ranked in the top ten this year. Full stop. In reality, they are ranked this high because of poll mentality and they haven't lost yet. Good job there. I'm really not sure what to make of these teams. Harbaugh has returned to his Stanford Steamroller roots, and it has served him well so far. Mel Tucker has rebuilt Sparty surprisingly quick (gotta love the transfer portal) and they seem a year ahead of schedule. I truly see this as a rock fight. These teams are just going to bludgeon each other running the ball. QB play will be the difference and Sparty has the better weapons outside and Michigan refused to throw the ball on first and second downs. It will be a good game, but I hope this game doesn't set football offenses back 20 years. UM: 14--MSU: 17

Seeberg:   Truly scrounging for the best win for either of these teams this year.  MSU's 3-TD win at 3-4 Miami?  UM winning at Wiscy by the same margin?  Toss-up, but honestly given the schedules it shouldn't be much of a surprise that both of these squads arrive undefeated.  Maybe somewhat with a new coach at the helm for Sparty, who gets this year's edition of big bro/little bro at home.  Honestly I think my colleague said it best.  Top 10 teams have to be multi-faceted and I don't trust UM to throw the ball well against a competent defense, regardless of who's under center.  Just as long as one of these teams is undefeated when we play them we will avoid the over-cannibalization of the east right?  UM: 20--MSU: 26

Mississippi Rebels @ Auburn Tigers
Draper: I honestly forgot Auburn still fielded a team.  Lane Train is good for crapping the bed here and there so the question is 'can they avoid it in Jordan-Hare? Is Auburn any good? I don't think so.  Matt Corral may still be the number one QB in the NFL mocks at this point, and I think that will be enough.  Auburn needs a year to recoup.  Miss: 38 -- Aub: 24
Hoying: Oh, hi there, Ole Miss. Welcome to the top 10, a height you hadn't even reached when Alabama launched you into the sun. And all it's taken is a couple of heartstopping victories against Arkansas and Tennessee and a blowout of the SEC's resident dead man walking. Matt Corral's been great (not as great as CJ Stroud, but still pretty good) but the defense just isn't there yet. Auburn, meanwhile, was actually able to make a dent in the nigh-impenetrable Georgia D so far this season (stay tuned to see if the Gators can do a dang thing against them). You never know if you're going to get good BoNix or bad BoNix, but the porous Ole Miss D should put him on the path to the smiling side of the scoreboard in this one. Miss: 34--Aub: 35
Schweinfurth: Ole' Miss has an explosive offense. Auburn has BoNix. Advantage: Ole' Miss. Back to the others receiving votes category Auburn! Miss: 42--Aub: 35

Seeberg:   Oh yeah, Auburn's still ranked.  Yay?  Even with this game at home it's hard to imagine the team that couldn't beat PSU beating a top 10 opponent.  Transitive property CLEARLY states Illinois>Auburn.  And if Illinois>Auburn, then Ole Miss should be able to outscore a Bo Nix led offense.  Miss: 37--Aub: 31

Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions @ Illinois Michigan THE Ohio State University Buckeyes 

Draper: I'm calling my shot here (like my co-bloggers it would seem)...I think this is going to be ugly.  The Lions are in shambles after that crapfest vs. Illinois last week, and the Buckeyes appear to be morphing into their final form.  CJ Stroud has been phenomenal, but I don't think this is his week.  He'll be more than fine, but the story on Sunday will be Treyveon Henderson and the ground attack.  If Illinois is running for 350+, I'd be petrified what the Buckeye backs and O-line are going to do.  Were the Lions looking ahead? Almost assuredly.  However, Penn State (like most of the other top ranked B1G teams) are mirages on the year.  The Buckeye offense will do work, but the question is the defense.  Sean Clifford is trash....BUT he pulls games out of his butt every once in awhile.  If he's still hurt, game over man, but if not, the D-line MUST get pressure.  Also, Denzel Burke....please don't talk trash to Dotson.  Dotson is an exceptional receiver that can help the Lions pull out the return of the chuck it deep on exery play (500!) offense which would be terrible if we don't get home.  That being said, I think the D will be fine and the O won't let up.  PSU: 20--OSU: 48
Hoying: It's hard to believe that just 3 short weeks ago, the college football world stood still for a top five showdown between Iowa and Penn State. And neither team has won a game since (and not for lack of lackluster opponents). Meanwhile the Buckeyes' stock just keeps rising. The offense may be the best in program history, and the defense is...fine. Which is honestly good enough for anything left on Ohio State's schedule, let alone a team that can't score on six straight plays from the three yard line. James Franklin says Sean Clifford will be back to 100% this week. Whoopty doo. Taulia Tagovailoa was at 100% when the Buckeyes played Maryland and that did him a fat lot of good against the Silver Bullets. The real question is whether Franklin himself will be at 100% this week (100% for him at least) or whether he'll be dreaming about joining his old Rose Bowl foe, USC. I don't think Penn State is good enough to hang with the Buckeyes on a good day, and this weekend's pajama party is not shaping up to be particularly kind to the Lions. Anyone remember the Penn State back in 2013, when the Buckeyes had an offense about this good? Something like that, only with PSU WR Jahan Dotson making a play or two. On to Nebraska. PSU: 17--OSU: 45
Schweinfurth: The more I watch James Franklin coach, the less impressed I am. The dude can recruit. I will admit that much, but the guy is an awful in game coach (see 9OTs of futility against an over matched opponent). It is scary to think what TreVon Henderson and the Buckeye Bulldozers are going to do to that Nittany Lion front 7. Penn State probably has the best secondary on the Buckeye schedule right now, but how do you stop Olave, Wilson, Smith-Njigba, Ruckertt, and then Henderson out of the backfield? I don't expect a lot of the explosive pass plays we have witnessed over the last three week, but this offense is going to move the ball. On defense, it seems that the Bullets are playing much better, and this is another step up. I'm not concerned about Noah Cain or anyone else running the ball here. Contain Jahan Dotson and it's all good. The only way this is close is if the defense gives up a ton of chunk plays to Dotson (see last year). PSU: 20--OSU: 42

Seeberg:   Well, the luster has certainly worn off of this game quickly.  These two teams are clearly trending in opposite directions.  The Buckeye offense is as prolific as ever, leading the nation in total offense and PPG.  Penn State set a new record for futility, needing 9 OTs to lose to woeful Illinois.  Hopefully, Day watched the Illini rushing offense absolutely torch the Nittany Cubs.  They KNEW what was coming and couldn't stop it, to the tune of 350+ rushing yards.  Henderson, Henderson, Williams, Henderson, Williams, play-action pass.  That recipe should work more than enough to distance themselves in the second half.  Look for me in D-deck under the press box, waving goodbye to James Franklin as he bolts not-so-happy valley for greener pastures.  PSU: 17--OSU: 42

Upset Special
Draper: Florida over Georgia (gross)
Hoying: Duke over Wake Forest
Schweinfurth: UNC over ND
Seeberg:  Miami over Pitt

Week 8: The Bottom of the Barrel

Standings:

1.) Draper 24-5 (4-3 upset)
2.) Seeberg 22-7 (2-5 upset)
3.) Hoying 21-8 (4-3 upset)
3.) Schweinfurth 21-8 (3-4 upset)

And you thought last week was bad, with only two ranked matchups nationwide. How about ZERO this week (OK, Clemson and Pitt are both ranked in the Coaches Poll)? That's not to say that this week is without intrigue, however. Two ranked teams find themselves underdogs against unranked opponents on the road, Clemson gets a chance to score their first win of import this season, and the Buckeyes face a team with more grievances against them than any not clad in maize and blue.

Oregon Ducks @ California, Los Angeles Bruins
Draper: This may be the only intriguing game this week.  UCLA is the hot upset pick, but I'm concerned it's a landmine.  Oregon has been a riddle wrapped inside an enigma this year.  Questionable against Fresno, great game against OSU, stinker vs. Stanford, flighty vs. Cal....who knows.  The Bruins have also yo-yo'd somewhat so this may be a spin the wheel game.  I'm going to take the bait.  Living on the edge with the Ducks finally crashes down and the Bucks road is clear. Chip Kelly reminds Oregon what they lost when he left.  UCLA: 30--Oregon: 27
Hoying: God willing, at season's end we'll all be celebrating another national championship for Ohio State and laughing about that dreadful September loss. "The Oregon game? Ah, what do you expect when you're starting freshmen at every position and you're running last year's defensive scheme?" Of course, that requires a few obstacles to be cleared out of the way, and given the Committee's love for head-to-head wins, the path would be clearest if Oregon would eat another loss or two. As we saw last year (and this year), Oregon's capable of losing to just about anyone, but UCLA appears to be their most fearsome remaining foe. The Bruins are a nice mirror of the Ducks themselves, good at rushing, bad at passing, OK on defense. Thing is, UCLA is a lot better at rush defense than Oregon is, so that side of the ball is going to be strength on strength unless Oregon QB Anthony Brown can break through. Problem is, his sub-50% completion performance against the Buckeyes was still his best of the season, and I don't see him outdueling DTR. The Pac-12's last 1-loss team is (more or less) officially eliminated from the Playoff chase for the 5th straight year. Chip Kelly finally gets his revenge. UO: 27--UCLA: 30
Schweinfurth: Oregon is hurting. Seriously, this is not the same team that upset Ohio State. UCLA has been all over the map, but the Ducks just seem off. I can really see UCLA pulling off the win, but Oregon sill has Kavvon. I'll take the Ducks on the road. UO: 28--UCLA: 24

Seeberg:   After a hot start beating ranked teams (although, to be fair UCLA's win over LSU doesn't really count), both squads have been trending very "meh" lately.  The Ducks collapsed at Stanford and followed that performance with a mediocre win over Cal.  The Bruins, meanwhile, have at least scored two conference road wins in a row at Arizona and UW.  In fact, the Ducks are struggling so mightily as a top 10 (!) team that they're actually 2-point underdogs in this game.  Still, Oregon has their D-line wrecker Kayvon back and healthy and UCLA is down a couple offensive linemen.  That should be just enough of a swing to allow the Ducks to sneak out of the Rose Bowl with another lackluster-looking win.  UO: 27--UCLA: 23

Clemson Tigers @ Pittsburgh Panthers
Draper: Sneaky, sneaky good game here.  Most of the advanced analytics have Pitt as a top 15 team (PUT PITT IN!), but can they face off against the Clemson 'juggernaut'.  Unfortunately, the Tigers look far more like kittens thus far.  Similar to Oregon, they've been playing with fire all season...but it's not due to their defense.  The Clemson offense has been shockingly inept all year while Pitt has been rolling (outside of a weird loss to WMU).  Pitt has nice wins against Tennessee and VaTech, but I'm not sure if that's quite Clemson level.  This just feels like a game Pitt craps away and Clemson flexes it's (puny) muscles.  I'm sticking with my priors.  Clem: 17--Pitt: 14
Hoying: Great teams find ways to win games. Every week I watch Clemson it looks like they're going to collapse in the fourth quarter, then somehow some catastrophe breaks their way and they escape with a victory. It helps to have the best non-Georgia defense in the country, which played the Dawgs to a draw (you may remember the winning points were a pick-6) and haven't given up more than 14 points in regulation this season. It's tragic, in a way, that it's wasted on one of the worst offenses in the country. Of course, it's not like Clemson's been playing the world-beaters of the ACC lately, either, other than NC State, who was able to pull hand the Tigers their second L of the season. And now Clemson has to visit Pitt, who, outside of a baffling loss against Western Michigan, has quietly been dominating on both sides of the ball. The Panthers even managed to escape Neyland Stadium with a win and no excess mustard. Clemson has been playing with fire far too often this year. Time to get knocked down another peg. Clem: 10--Pitt: 20
Schweinfurth: Clemson's offense is butt. There is just no cohesion or rhythm. I really though Syracuse was going to pull of the upset last week. I don't want to say Dabo has lost the team (they are still playing hard), but I do think there is a massive let down. Pitt should be able to take advantage here. Clem: 12--Pitt: 21

Seeberg:   If there was a prop bet on this game at the start of the season that you could wager Clemson would be UNranked and Pitt would be ranked, somebody could have made a fortune because the odds would have been astronomical.  Yet somehow, in the year "after" COVID when normalcy was supposed to reign supreme, here we are.  Pitt gives up 20 a game, Clemson scores 20 a game.  So, is 20 enough to win it for the Tigers?  Not this week.  Pitt's offense is the best they've seen this season, and the ACC has tired of Clemson's bullying.  They're ripe for the taking, and the Panthers get it done.  Clem: 20--Pitt: 27

Oklahoma State Cowboys @ Iowa State Cyclones

Draper: It would benefit the Buckeyes to see Okie State take an L.  I thought last week was the time, but Texas simply isn't back.  What to think about Iowa State? Once again...no clue.  They were the sexy pick in the Big 12 and everyone was clamoring for the B1G to call up the cyclones with an invite (which would have been very dumb), but that sheen faded quickly.  The Clones have shellacked bad teams and struggled against ranked teams all year.  While I feel the Pokes are primed to take a fall, I'm not banking on this week (sadly).  OkSt: 31--ISU: 28
Hoying: Is it finally time to stop doubting the Cowboys? The other OSU hasn't been exactly blowing out their opponents, but they've ridden a good defense (and playing Texas) to 6 straight wins to open the season. Problem is, Iowa State's defense has looked just as good, and they have a working offense to go with it. Yes, the Ballhawkeyes were able to frustrate the Cyclone attack way back in week 2, but that was largely turnover based. The Oklahoma State defense doesn't live and die by the turnover, so even if they're able to make ISU sputter a bit more often than usual, it won't be enough to make up for their own woeful offensive performance. Saturday closes with Oklahoma alone atop the Big 12 standings, once again. OkSt: 20--ISU: 24
Schweinfurth: Iowa State is due for a big win. It seems like they rise up for one of these games a year. I said it last week, I just don't trust a team that hasn't shown up on my TV. I think the Cyclones are better than their record shows. Party time in Ames. OkSt: 28--ISU: 35

Seeberg:  I actually glanced at this game as my upset pick before realizing it was one of the games on our agenda this week.  I have, officially now, given up all hope of figuring out the Big XII.  The Cowboys haven't beaten anyone by more than 11 points all season (including a 7-point win over Montana State and a 5-point win over Tulsa) yet they've beaten everyone on their schedule thus far, which includes Baylor and Texas.  ISU lost at Baylor and to the Purdue-doormat Hawkeyes.  From what I can glean, the plains-states OSU squad does a lot of things fairly well but nothing really well.  I can't picture that formula holding up for another half-dozen games.  The Cyclones get a signature (?) win for their disappointing 2021 campaign.  OkSt: 24--ISU: 31 

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Indiana Hoosiers
Draper: My pre-season pick for 'team that everyone expects to be good to majorly underachieve' was the Indiana Hoosiers.  Why? Whenever a team comes from nowhere to have a strong season, always expect regression to the mean.  And boy did we see that.  Don't get me wrong, Indiana is still much improved from the last 20 or so years, but they're still Indiana.  The Buckeyes on the other hand seem to have found their Stroud....or...stride.  I'm actually very surprised that Stroud isn't more in the Heisman conversation (he won't win, but he should be talked about) as he is statistically the best QB in the country by many metrics.  This will be the first solid defense the Buckeyes have faced since Oregon, but I think the offense is just clicking too well.  Let's not fail to mention a defense that has resurrected from the ashes to be competent (that's good enough).  Even though the Hoosiers like to punch above their weight class in this game of late, I don't think they have the horses in Bloomington to make it happen.  Bucks get 2 TDs between Olave and Wilson, toss in 2 from Henderson, and another from another receiver (Smith-Njigba?) and you're looking at a nice night.  OSU: 41--IU: 20
Hoying: What happened to the Indiana offense? The Hoosiers have been bottled up for a total of 21 points over 3 Big Ten games. Granted, those were against Iowa, Penn State, and Michigan State, but last year's team put up at least 24 in each of their first 6 games before running into the Wisconsin brick wall. That being said, this game still makes me uneasy. Remember that this was the defense that made Justin Fields look like a scrub last year, and they're off to another decent start this season. The problem is, you're going to have to defend a lot of short fields when you give the ball away like the Hoosiers do. There's still Ty Fryfogle and Peyton Hendershot to worry about, but there will be opportunities for the Silver Bullets to return an interception for a TD for the 5th game in a row. On the other side of the ball, I hated the bye week coming when it did, when the the fearsome Buckeye juggernaut seemed to be poised to peak. Hopefully they can shake off the rust quickly (those of us who lived through the Tressel era still have nightmares about those post bye week offenses). All in all, I don't think this year's Indiana team is as good as last year's, and as long as the defense can keep up the pressure, they'll force enough mistakes for a tight but ultimately comfortable win. IU: 24--OSU: 38
Schweinfurth: What is the bigger mirage, this Hoosier team or last year's? I'm going with last year. While the Hoosier D is pretty good, it is prone to the big play. Oh hey, look it's the Buckeye offense who leads the world in yards per play. That looks like a good combination. The defense has had two weeks to continue improving and getting healthy on the line. Indiana's O-Line isn't great and will probably get exposed up the middle. This is another step up for the D and we will have a better idea of where they stand heading into the Nittany Kitty game. This one might get out of hand quick. IU: 14--OSU: 52

Seeberg:   Anybody have the Hoosiers at 2-4 right now?  Usually yes, this year, probably not.  Penix Jr's run of injuries appears to have caught up with him as, even when he is on the field, he doesn't seem quite as explosive as the last couple seasons.  The Hoosiers' D has improved, to their credit, stifling a good MSU squad pretty much for all four quarters.  No IU defense in history (heck, even an amalgamation of their best all-time players) can shut this Buckeye iteration down for a full game, however.  I expect a slow start after the bye week, but by mid-second quarter, Stroud and Co. should hit a stride and not look back.  I'm more intrigued by the Silver Bullets.  For basically a decade now, the defense has had the luxury of having BOTH of the following:  elite D-line play that allowed 7 to drop in coverage because pressure consistently came from just the front four, AND one shutdown corner who all but eliminated the top playmaker on the outside.  That means 6 defenders can cover just 3/4 of the field and 4 (at most) potential targets.  Good numbers.  This year, the shutdown corner is not there (although Burke is better than anticipated and may be one come 2022.  So, for my money, it's down to the front four.  If the Buckeyes can get consistent pressure without blitzing, the back 7, while not as good as it has been, can still hold up.  Here's hoping for 2-3 D-line sacks and a fun night game to prep for the big night game next week.  IU: 17--OSU: 42

Upset Special
Draper: LSU over Ole Miss
Hoying: USC over Notre Dame
Schweinfurth: SCAR over TAMU
Seeberg:  Army over Wake Forest