Thursday, October 22, 2015

Week 8 - It's Not Like Next Week Is Any Better

Standings
1) Seeberg              29-8    (0-7 upset)
2) Draper                26-11    (4-3 upset) 
2) Hoying               26-11    (1-6 upset)
2) Schweinfurth     26-11    (1-6 upset)


Hope you enjoyed last week, college football fans. These games suuuuuuuuck. At least we get to see the Buckeyes again before their Halloween bye.


#19 California Bears @ UCLA Bruins

Draper: Cal has been rising quickly under Sonny Lubick and his fast paced offense.  Jared Goff seeks to be the next great Cal QB, albeit quite different from A.A.Ron Rodgers.  UCLA had the crazy hype after a quick start but the Bruins and freshman 'sensation' Josh Rosen have slowly disappeared from memory like a fart in the wind.  The game is in the Rose Bowl but all the west coast fans have leapt off the band wagon and now are focused on...well, all sports kinda suck out there now....Golden State? Bears of the Golden variety triumph in a high scoring affair. Cal: 45--UCLA: 34
Hoying: Welcome to Rivalry Week. California vs. California. Bears vs. Bears. Blue and Gold vs. Blue and Gold. Are you excited yet? Yeah, me neither. Still, this is the wacky Pac-12, where almost every team (sorry, Oregon State and Colorado) is still chasing a berth at Sinkhole Stadium at season's end. Cal still controls its own destiny, and it remains undefeated in games in which QB Jared Goff doesn't throw 5 interceptions. UCLA is reeling after getting blown out in back-to-back games. The Bruins' defense just can't stop anyone, giving up 56 points to a Stanford team that racked up all of 6 against Northwestern. Expect the Bear O to go Goff on the Bruin D, and watch UCLA QB Josh Rosen crumble under the pressure yet again. Cal: 40--UCLA: 27
Schweinfurth: Ahh yes, another PAC-12 game. I don't have a bias against the PAC-12, I just hate that they all play after I go to bed. With that said, I really don't know much about either team and I'll just make a pick. Cal: 38--UCLA: 35

Seeberg:  Not 100% sure what to make of this game.  UCLA has a defense like a steel sieve, but the last time we saw Jared Goff he was a turnover machine in a narrow loss to Utah.  Should I be impressed that Cal had 5 INTs and only lost to Utah by 6?  I don't know, because I still don't fully trust that the Utes are that good.  My educated guess is that the loss of Myles Jack in the UCLA defense was bigger than anyone realized at the time, and with two weeks to prep, a Cal team looking to re-establish itself after the Utah loss will be too much offensively for the Bruins to handle.  Cal: 42--UCLA: 34

#15 Texas A&M Aggies @ #21 Ole Miss Rebels
Draper: Ole Miss returns to the Grove after losing to perennial championship contender Memphis.  Memphis may be really good, but Ole Miss is supposed to be one of the premier programs in the premier league.  The loss of Robert Nkemdiche led to a meltdown.  This week will test the intestinal fortitude of the Rebels.  How do you respond to a blowout loss to Florida in the Swamp and a surprising loss to an undefeated but supposedly overmatched foe?  A&M was beat fairly soundly at home by the all and powerful Bama, but other than that blip, they have been quite good.  I expect a rebound game for Ole Miss.  Yeah, they could crash and burn, but returning home to the crazy fans, I expect the Rebels to play for their lives.  TAMU: 24--Miss: 31
Hoying: Is Memphis a legitimate playoff contender, or is Ole Miss just a complete mirage? After spotting Ole Miss a quick 14-0 lead, the Tigers dominated the Rebels at home last Saturday. The Landsharks were shredded through the air, particularly after superstar DL Robert Nkemdiche left the game with a concussion. That's bad news with Kyle Allen and the Aggies coming to town. This isn't the Alabama secondary that's going to return 3 Allen throws for TDs. The Rebels are going to have to outscore A&M, and that's tough without a running game, no matter how good Ole Miss QB Chad Kelly has been. Memphis would love Ole Miss to run the table and win the SEC, legitimizing their big win, but the wheels have fallen off and the cart is about to crash. TAMU: 38--Miss: 34

Schweinfurth: How is Ole Miss still ranked? Because they beat Bama? Memphis put a beat down on the Rebels last week and the Landshark defense is reeling after losing Nkemdiche (probably for a few weeks too). Be prepared for a long game with all the passing (this one may take over 4 hours). I'll take A&M in the marathon. TAMU: 42--Miss: 31
Seeberg:  This is a matchup of two oddly similar teams.  Both have solid QBs but no running game.  Both have legit chances to win the SEC West but are coming off of stinging losses.  Both have one conference loss so this is essentially an elimination game (though the Rebels' loss to Memphis may have them out of CFP contention anyway).  I think the combination of Robert Nkemdiche potentially being out (no word yet as of Wednesday afternoon as I type this) and Memphis torching the Rebels through the air provide the perfect blueprint for Sumlin to get his Aggies back on track.  TAMU: 34--Miss: 28


#1 Utah Utes @ USC Trojans
Draper:  This is the one.  SC could be in complete disarray after the Sark disaster, but they acquitted themselves quite well in South Bend when there was nothing positive to play for.  Utah has a nice win against Michigan at home that has aged well, a close win over Cal that is nice...but at home, a good win over ASU...at home, and a blowout of Oregon in Eugene.  Normally, that last would be incredibly valuable but not as much this year.  The Trojans have an incredible amount of talent and this is the week in which it shows.  They won't break any records this year, but they'll screw with some Utah hopes.  I'm surprised SC is favored, but I lean with Vegas.  Utah: 28--USC: 31
Hoying: No coach? Check. No great wins to date? Check. Favored to beat a team with a legitimate case to be ranked #1? Chec.....what??? A week after Utah handled the only team with a winning record USC's beaten (Arizona State) and USC lost by multiple scores to "eh" team Notre Dame, the bookies are giving Utah more than a field goal in this matchup. What gives? Cody Kessler has been pretty good...against crap, but the Trojans looked completely lost against Washington 2 weeks ago and I don't think the middle of a coaching change is the time for USC to start solving tough defenses. Remember that the Utes forced 6 turnovers to grind out a win against Cal. Kessler has thrown 4 INTs himself in the Trojans' last 2 losses. Uh oh. I'm not drinking the Kool-Aid (or anything Sark offers me). Utah preserves the Pac-12's hope for an unbeaten champion. Utah: 28--USC: 20

Schweinfurth: Utah has looked good all season and USC is in bad shape without a head coach. Utah: 31--USC: 17
Seeberg:  I have to be honest- I assumed my colleagues had gone blind in one eye and had that milky film over the other eye in reporting that Utah was an underdog, yet somehow, they're right.  I admit I don't fully trust the Utes yet, but there's no reason to think a 3-3 team should be favored over the Utes...or is there?  The Trojans looked more than competent under 5-day head coach and presumably more sober than his predecessor Clay Helton in a 10-point loss at Notre Dame.  They've got talent for days...or at least hours, but no serviceable depth and no RB that has even 400 yards through 6 games.  Cody Kessler is good but he just can't do it by himself.  The Trojans find themselves in too many 2nd and 9s and 3rd and 10s to overcome and Utah stays perfect.  Utah: 34--USC: 28


#3 THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Draper: When I heard the news, I felt like Big Mike after saving the Buy More.  Joe Thomas Barrett IV returns under center to bring a sense of command and precision to the Buckeye offense.  Captain Smooth directs the offense like a symphony with dashing runs, precision passes, and an overall presence that the team can look to for solace.  The O-line certainly upped their game last week when JT returned and the seas parted as the magical misdirection returned.  Zeke found fewer defenders to deal with (JT had to be accounted for), the WR's blocked harder, and when needed, the short to intermediate passing game was very sharp.  Rutgers his never a team to strike hearts in the fears of men, but they are coming off a huge comeback over the Hoosiers...but now the Bucks have returned to form.  This won't be close.  My only request is that the defense stops giving up a few explosive plays a game. Show the nation what the Defending National Champs look like. OSU: 56--
Rutgers...more like Buttgers: 9
Hoying: We've been asking for it, and it's finally arrived: Just Touchdowns Barrett is back. What will a defense do given a full week to prepare for him? The two-headed monster has (probably) been a nightmare to prepare for, but now DCs can full their full attention towards stopping the read option. I don't expect any slowdown this week, since Rutgers is surrendering up almost 30 points a game (and 1/3 of their opponents were Kansas and Norfolk State). If you're desperate for something to hold your attention, watch how the Ohio State passing game develops. Will JT finally be on the same page as his receivers, or at least close enough to keep the drives alive? Will Ohio State even try to throw the ball after racking up over 300 yards on the ground against a pretty good Penn State defense? Will Cardale see more action in garbage time than during his starting duties the last 2 weeks? How long until Stephen Collier gets to hand the ball off to Bri'onte Dunn? Does Ohio State have a greater chance of losing this weekend or next? OSU: 49--Rut: 17
Schweinfurth: Rutgers has one player: Leonte Carroo. Rutgers QB? Not mobile and they have some meh RBs. I'm not real worried about the Silver Bullets this week. Yes, there are lots of injuries, but this game should be some good experience for the young Bucks. On offense, it's time to get into a rhythm. Expect lots of up tempo with JT at the helm. Barrett is a good distributor of the ball and should get Thomas and Miller in some short/medium routes as the defense sucks up to stop the run. This is going to be a rout and we should be able to get some important guys rest early. OSU: 56--Rutgers: 13
Seeberg:  OK first and foremost, the jerseys alone are great.  The all-black look?  We looked like Oregon State.  Wrong OSU to be emulating.  Not a good call.  All that aside, I STILL don't know what to make of the QB situation.  Is J.T. that much better?  Maybe...but probably not.  I am going to review the game play by play tomorrow but watching it live in the stadium I am about 90% certain Cardale did not even attempt one throw between the hashes, and he may not have even attempted one to someone inside the NUMBERS (or at least to a receiver that started inside the numbers except super-wide swing passes to Zeke).  It's as if the play callers are so enamored with his strong arm to stretch the field horizontally that they are forgetting to stretch the field vertically.  No crossing routes, no inside slants, no in routes, no posts, NOTHING anywhere near the middle of the field, and it didn't look as if Penn State was doing anything special to shut that area of the field off.  In any case, the red zone O is still clicking, and Zeke is getting more north and south runs finally.  The D was gashed again by some big runs.  Rutgers has a reasonably effective RB by committee attack, but no one special RB that will consistently give the Silver Bullets problems (unless Joshua Perry is out, heal up quick #37!).  I expect a pretty similar game to the blackout.  The best part of 7-0?  The chance to go 8-0.  OSU: 45--RUT: 13

Upset Special

Draper: Washington over Stanford
Hoying: Texas Tech over Oklahoma
Schweinfurth: Tennessee over Alabama
Seeberg:  I canNOT get one of these, ugh.  Let's try Boston College over Louisville.

Tuesday, October 20, 2015

2015 Rankings Premiere! Top 25 and Heisman Favorites - After Week 7

So ends the Cardale Jones half of the 2015-15 season. Now that we've actually seen the teams play a few times and have a factual basis for comparing them, it's time to break out the Let's Go Bucks! Index, which is about as relevant as the AP and Coaches' polls in the playoff era.

Rankings, as always, are based on what teams have done so far, not how we believe they will finish. The top 4 teams indicated below have NO RELATION to the teams we think will appear in the playoff. If the season ended today, THE PLAYOFF WOULDN'T HAPPEN BECAUSE THAT'S NOT HOW IT'S DESIGNED.

Let's Go Bucks Index
1. Utah
2. LSU
3. Ohio State
4a. Clemson
4b. Michigan State
6. Baylor
7. TCU
8. Iowa
9. Memphis
10. Florida State
11. Alabama
12. Oklahoma State
13. Stanford
14. Florida
15. Texas A&M
16. Notre Dame
17. Michigan
18. Temple
19. California
20. Houston
21. Ole Miss
22a. Toledo
22b. Northwestern
22c. Oklahoma
25. Pittsburgh

Others receiving votes: UCLA, Navy, Duke, Penn State

Let's Go Bucks Heisman Index
1. Leonard Fournette (RB--LSU)
2. Dalvin Cook (RB--FSU)
3. Ezekiel Elliott (RB--OSU)

Others receiving votes: Seth Russell (QB--Baylor), Trevone Boykin (QB--TCU)

Draper Top 25
1. Ohio State
2. Utah
3. Louisiana State
4. Baylor
5. Clemson
6. Michigan State
7. Memphis
8. TCU
9. Florida State
10. Iowa
11. Bama
12. Stanford
13. Florida
14. Oklahoma State
15. Notre Dame
16. Texas A&M
17. Michigan
18. Toledo
19. Houston
20. Temple
21. Northwestern
22. Oklahoma
23. California
24. Duke
25. Pitt

Draper Heisman Ballot
1. Leonard Fournette (RB--LSU)
2. Dalvin Cook (RB--FSU)
3. Ezekiel Elliot (RB--OSU)


Hoying Top 25
1. Utah
2. Louisiana State
3. Iowa
4. Michigan State
5. Memphis
6. Clemson
7. Ohio State
8. TCU
9. Baylor
10. Florida State
11. Temple
12. Oklahoma State
13. Florida
14. Alabama
15. California
16. Texas A&M
17. Michigan
18. Mississippi
19. Northwestern
20. Stanford
21. Notre Dame
22. Pittsburgh
23. Navy
24. UCLA
25. Penn State

Hoying Heisman Ballot
1. Leonard Fournette (RB--LSU)
2. Dalvin Cook (RB--FSU)
3. Seth Russell (QB--Baylor)


Seeberg Top 25
1.) Ohio State
2.) LSU
3.) Utah
4.) Clemson
5.) Michigan State
6.) Baylor
7.) TCU
8.) Florida State
9.) Alabama
10.) Stanford
11.) Iowa
12.) Texas A&M
13.) Notre Dame
14.) Memphis
15.) Oklahoma State
16.) Michigan
17.) Florida
18.) Oklahoma
19.) Houston
20.) Temple
21.) Ole Miss
22.) Toledo
23.) Cal
24.) UCLA
25.) Pitt

Seeberg Heisman Ballot
1.) Leonard Fournette (RB--LSU)
2.) Ezekiel Elliott (RB--OSU)
3.) Trevone Boykin (QB--TCU)

Monday, October 19, 2015

Grading the Bucks: Week 7 -- Penn State

The Return of Captain Smooth (let's hope)

Offense: Incomplete
How to grade this unit? Cardale looked horrible and the offense sputtered with him at the helm.  To be clear, this was the worst Cardale has looked as a starter.  Passes were 'Brett Favre'd' off target, indecisiveness reigned, and there was no rhythm.  Enter Captain Smooth, Joe Thomas Barrett IV, who calmly stepped into the breech and took charge.  4/4 passing, of course a very small sample size), was perfect as well as total command of the ground game.  All of a sudden, Zeke started to break free, the receivers looked more crisp in routes and blocking, O-line gained confidence, and J.T. was able to run the read option that we love.  Once the change happened, I love what I saw from the offense on almost all levels.  The misdirection JT excels at was phenomenal, so much so that the Penn State D-line (who is quite good) felt the need to celebrate the one time they broke up a play.  Tale of two leaders.  Grades will be completed once we see a full JT game...if we see a whole JT game.

Defense: C+
This was the most difficult grade of all time.  This game had some absolutely fantastic plays but there were some historic fails.  Apple was off as he has been most of the year, tackling was sloppy, and PSU's freshman RB Saquon Barkley tore us up.  Yes, he looks like he could be really good, but giving up nearly 200 yards is unacceptable.  The D-line was great on the pass rush, even while being held on every play, but the rush defense needs to step it up.  The loss of Perry could be costly going forward as Booker looked a little iffy in his absence.  We'll see if there are any lingering effects.

Special Teams: A
Cam Johnston was fantastic pinning most punts inside the 5 (!) after great coverage.  The one attempted FG was converted and coverage on all kicks/punts was fantastic.  There is little (if anything) to complain about from this unit.  They were fantastic.  The return game wasn't special, but no turnovers are good enough for me.  Cam Johnston for Ray Guy? If only we punted more...let's hope not.

Coaching: C
This has to be the final straw, doesn't it?...DOESN'T IT??? I've been shocked at the refusal to see facts by the coaching staff.  JT jumpstarting the offense upon arrival is due to more than his abilities.  He exudes a quiet confident presence of a leader who's skill set fits the talents of this team to a tee.  The misdirection opens up running lanes for both him and Zeke as well as confusing the DBs.  For the air game, he doesn't have the cannon Cardale has, but he can diagnose the defense and carve them up efficiently.  He takes what is given and gets as much as possible.  In game adjustments were ok but the failure to stop the run was an issue.  The D-line could stop all but quick passes by forcing the issue, but there didn't seem a concerted effort to stop the run.  While the decision eventually paid off, I was baffled by Urban's decision to punt from the opponent 34.  Yes, Johnston is good and pinned them deep (although I believe they scored on that drive), but I would prefer to go for it that deep in enemy territory.  The extra yards of field position don't seem worth giving up the chance to extend the drive.

Overall: B
Solid victory over a decent team (one of the best we've played) that is improving greatly.  Note: they've only lost to currently undefeated teams.  Good performance, but I'd like to see a stauncher run D.  From a 'point' perspective, the defense was great, but I worry down the road.  Offensively, JT ran a great game...but the question is: 'Has he earned the keys to the car?"  In my opinion, yes (but you already knew that).  Can Urban swallow his pride and make the call? The time is now.

Uniforms: BUTT
Here are my thoughts: If you really think recruits choose their school based on uniforms, I think you're insane.  Yes, high school students are not known for their deep wisdom, but if you don't want to come to OSU for the tradition, the excellence, and, oh yeah, the Championships, the fame, the exposure, and the ticket to the next level of the NFL, then I can't help you.  This is nothing more than a money grab because fans will pay whatever they ask for new 'swag'.  I know the players like them, I know the recruits like them, but there's something to be said for the strength of tradition and the pride of donning the Scarlet and Gray.  We don't need gimmicks...we're Ohio State.  The tradition of excellence speaks for itself.

Friday, October 16, 2015

Great Moments in Buckeye and Bengal History

Today is October 16th, and the Buckeyes and Bengals are undefeated.

That sentence has been true only once before in the 47-year history of the Cincinnati Bengals. The best combined start for the Buckeyes and Bengals came 40 years ago in 1975.

The 1975 Cincinnati Bengals started 6-0 before falling to the hated Pittsburgh Steelers on November 2nd. The Bengals would lose both of their games against the eventual Super Bowl X champion Steelers on their way to an 11-3 regular season record and a wild-card berth after finishing behind Pittsburgh in the brutal AFC Central Division (with the exception for the 3-11 Browns). QB Ken Anderson led the NFL in passing yards for a second straight year, and the Bengals' leading rusher was named Boobie Clark. Cincinnati promptly lost to the Oakland Raiders in the first round of the playoffs.

The 1975 Ohio State Buckeyes completed a perfect 11-0 regular season, beating That Team Up North for the second straight year for the first time since 1967-68 to cap a 4th straight Big Ten title and their first outright since 1970. Archie Griffin became the first (and to date, only) player to win the Heisman Trophy a second time, despite having his streak of 31 straight 100+ yard rushing games snapped in Ann Arbor and not winning the team MVP award, which went to QB Cornelius Greene. The Buckeyes held the #1 ranking for the majority of the season after beating #13 UCLA in the Coliseum on October 4th. However, Ohio State lost a rematch to the Bruins in the Rose Bowl and finished ranked #4 in both polls.

This season's 6-0 Buckeyes and 5-0 Bengals are reallllly good, but the Bengals will need to knock off the Bills and Steelers, and the Buckeyes will have to conquer Penn State and Rutgers, in order for 2015 to become the greatest Buckeye/Bengal start of all time.

Special congratulations/best wishes are in order for Bengals A.J. Hawk and Mike Nugent, who know a thing or two about undefeated seasons for the Scarlet and Gray.

GO BUCKS!
WHO DEY!*

*This sentiment does not reflect the views or opinions of Let's Go Bucks! writers who root for worse teams.

Wednesday, October 14, 2015

Week 7 - That Rivalry Up North

Standings
1) Seeberg              24-7    (0-6 upset)
2) Draper                22-9    (4-2 upset) 
3) Hoying               21-10    (1-5 upset)
4) Schweinfurth     20-11    (1-5 upset)


As we approach the season's halfway point, 16 undefeated teams are still in the playoff chase, with another 14 Power 5 teams floating around with just one loss. This week's action should go a long way toward determining  who we'll see in Miami and Dallas on New Year's Eve, particularly from our own beloved B1G.


UCLA Bruins @ Stanford Cardinal

Draper: After the anomaly in Evanston, Stanford has really come together and started to look like a real football team.  UCLA on the other hand, started super hot and now has come crashing back to earth.  Stanford has much more experience at QB but Josh Rosen is the flavor of the month.  The loss of Myles Jack is huge, but I'm expecting a rebound from the Bruins.  Stanford tries to muck it up, but UCLA gets enough flash to escape Palo Alto with a win.  UCLA: 31 -- Stan: 28
Hoying: With all the turmoil that's engulfed the Pac-12 over the last couple of weeks, it's odd that these teams aren't getting more hype as potential playoff contenders. Each is sitting on only one loss and has looked pretty good the rest of the time. Age meets beauty behind center as Stanford senior QB Kevin Hogan and UCLA freshman QB Josh Rosen continue to have excellent seasons slinging the ball. But in big games, experience counts, and Stanford has been the hot team after losing their opener to better-than-expected Northwestern. Cardinal get the win in front of all 50 of their fans at home. UCLA: 20--Stan: 24
Schweinfurth: I can honestly say I really don't know much about these two teams (thanks to after 10 PM PAC-12 games and the whole east coast bias thing). What I do know is that both teams have good QBs. 
Unfortunately, UCLA is without Miles Jack and Stanford have a senior QB. Advantage Cardinal. UCLA: 28--Stan: 31

Seeberg:  Stanford is averaging 35 ppg on offense.  That may come as a shock to some of you who only remember their 16-6 opening week debacle at Northwestern.  Meanwhile in SoCal, UCLA was the toast of the Pac-12 for about 47 minutes and then lost badly to Arizona State at home last week.  Both teams run it well and have talented QBs, though Kevin Hogan has far more experience.  I think UCLA will be poised for this game, knowing a second conference loss all but ruins their plans for the year, but Stanford is playing just a little too well at the moment.  Dance hideous tree, dance.  UCLA: 24--STAN: 31

Iowa Hawkeyes @ Northwestern Wildcats
Draper:  Is Iowa for real? Is Northwestern decent or will they fold after their first adversity of the year.  Michigan took the wind out of the Wildcats sails, but we need to see if Northwestern folds after the first bad game like they have so often in the recent past.  Iowa is undefeated but they haven't played anyone of note (before you give me Wisconsin...you obviously didn't watch that poor excuse of a 'game' in Madison).  I think Northwestern rebounds at home in a tight low scoring affair.  Iowa: 10 -- NW: 13
Hoying: Michigan ruins everything. What could've been a showdown between two undefeated B1G West heavyweights is...still actually really important. Sure, Northwestern got blasted, but they still control their destiny and a win over the Hawkeyes would put them in the driver's seat. But do the 'Cats have anything left in the tank? In 2013, Ohio State broke undefeated and ranked Northwestern and it took them 2 years to recover. The loss to Michigan wasn't quite as heartbreaking (NW was probably at peace with it by about the 4th quarter) but they'll need to be at full power to handle an Iowa team that continues to have success on the ground and on defense. Northwestern is the better team, but don't underestimate the hangover effect. Iowa: 16--NW: 13

Schweinfurth: You have to think that Northwestern is reeling after the beating they took last week. This seems to happen every year. Northwestern gets off to a great start and then puts all their energy into one game, get their hearts ripped out, and then crash the rest of the year. It looks like it might happen again this year. Iowa is just bullying teams with their defense and physical run game. The Wildcat defense was totally shut down last week and I don't see much changing this week. The Northwestern crash begins. Iowa: 20--NW: 3
Seeberg:  Let's be honest here, both teams are already playing with house money at 6-0 (Iowa), 5-1 (NW) and in the top 20.  However, NW basically collapsed after their last nationally relevant game ended in defeat against the Buckeyes in Evanston two years ago.  The 38-0 scoreline against TTUN was a touch misleading as 14 points came off of returns (kick and INT), but Northwestern still got exposed and they haven't scored more than 27 against an FBS opponent this season.  This is the biggest test for Iowa to date, but after winning ugly against an albeit down Wisconsin team at their hellhole of a stadium, I don't expect the Cubbie-crazy Chicago suburb to be too into this game after the loss at UM.  Hawkeyes ugly their way to 7-0.  IOWA: 17--NW: 10


Alabama Crimson Tide @ Texas A&M Aggies
Draper:  Bama seemed to have rebounded with a monster of a game vs. UGA but the Arkansas game was clearly a little scary for 3 quarters for those in Tuscaloosa.  A&M is another of those teams just hanging around.  Are they good? I have no idea, but I think Bama, when at their peak, is solid.  I fear for my life too much to pick against Saban, even at Kyle Field.  Bama: 31--TAMU: 21
Hoying: It's possible that the SEC's best team is playing in this game, and that they'll be wearing the home maroons. After thrashing Arizona State in the season opener, the Aggies have quietly strung together 4 more wins behind the excellent play of QB Kyle Allen. Meanwhile, Alabama struggled to do anything for 3 quarters against Bert before pulling away. Stopping the Arkansas offense is one thing; can Saban shut down Texas A&M? Ole Miss needed every trick in the book and every favorable bounce to bounce Alabama, and I don't think lightning is going to strike twice until Bama's opponent has a bit more thunder in the tank. Bama: 38--TAMU: 28

Schweinfurth: One gets the feeling that Alabama has been escaping more games this year than in the past. This isn't the Alabama of the last few years. Saban still hasn't figured out how to stop a good spread offense and relies on guys who are on the large, slower side. It does seem that Lane Kiffin has pulled his head out of his backside (Saban's edict?) and has begun to rely on that strong running game lead by Derrick Henry. The Aggies always give the Tide fits and this is another close one. Henry and the Tide run game are the difference. Bama: 42--TAMU: 38
Seeberg:  Bama is 5-1 this season despite not really looking much like Bama for long stretches with the exception of their thrashing of Georgia.  They were down 7-3 in the 3rd quarter against we-lost-to-Toledo Arkansas before waking up to win 27-14.   In a slightly darker shade of Crimson, the Aggies haven't really faced any adversity whatsoever in their 5-0 start except against- that's right- we-also-lost-to-Texas-Tech Arkansas.  The Aggies needed OT to escape the Razorbacks.  The difference?  The Aggies could not run the ball at all and needed Kyle Allen heroics (358 pass yds) to win.  Bama has an improving Jay Coker and Derrick Henry to hand the ball to.  That balance will, combined with Bama's D shutting down the run like Arkansas did, give the Crimson Tide a close win.  BAMA: 27--TAMU: 20


Michigan State Spartans @ Michigan Wolverines

Draper: This game all of a sudden got realllllll interesting.  Michigan is arguably the hottest team in football with 3 straight shutouts.  MSU has been limping along all season similar to OSU.  The question is: Is MSU (and OSU) bored, or do they have chinks in the armor? I imagine it's a little of both.  In my opinion, Michigan is playing at their maximum level and we have yet to see the best of MSU.  Being in the Big House, the Wolverine faithful will be strutting their stuff up until kickoff.  Something tells me, this is the week in which MSU puts it together.  Cook, and Scott steadily wear down the vaulted Wolverine defense and the Spartan defense exposes Jake Rudock as the worthless QB he is.  Close game, but the Blue go home crying after another beat at the hands of 'little brother'.  MSU: 20 -- UM: 13
Hoying: Remember when the hot talk was whether Ohio State and Michigan State could both make the playoff after blowing through their easy conference slates? Suddenly, the hot takes aren't talking about either team representing the B1G. Three straight shutouts will do wonders for a team's reputation, even when that team has done this to us before in recent memory, starting 4-0 in 2009 (finished 5-7), 5-0 in 2010 (finished 7-6), and 5-0 in 2013 (finished 7-6). What's the mark of Michigan being back for real? Knocking off Little Brother. The Maize and Blue owned the Green and White before Lloyd left, but it's been incredibly rough sailing since. Part of it is the constant coaching changes, especially since a first-year Wolverine coach hasn't beaten their #2 rivals since Bennie Oosterbaan in 1948. This year, the evil empire has the better defense and maybe even the better running game. This one will come down to how well the Spartan front can rattle Rudock and force him to make mistakes. Sparty's struggled to put away worse teams, and after seeing Utah pick off Cal QB Jared Goff 5 times, it looks like maybe Jake's not the turnover machine Buckeye Nation thought they could ridicule all year. Be glad we have another 6 weeks to prepare, because the Harbaugh victory train keeps right on rolling. MSU: 20--UM: 24
Schweinfurth: I really don't know what to make of these two teams. TUN defense actually looks legit, but I have serious questions about Jake Rudock as a decent QB. I feel like he just hasn't done much and the Wolverines rely way too much on the run game. On the other side, the Spartans have been playing uninspired football the last few weeks and barely escaped Piscataway with a win last week. We know Dantonio can coach up that defense and I think the Spartans have been looking forward to this game all year to this point. We finally see the Spartan team that rolled Oregon in week two and L.J. Scott has a big day chewing up clock. All hail Little Brother. MSU: 17--UM: 14
Seeberg:  If anyone tells you they had the Wolverines favored by a full touchdown in this game at the start of the season, then they have taken a quantum leap in the field of compulsive lying.  Yet somehow, that's where we find ourselves.  I think the Spartans are probably the better team assuming both squads are at even strength, but a laundry list of injuries has Sparty looking quite pedestrian.  Meanwhile, Jake Rudock has looked positively competent since his disastrous 3 INT performance against Utah, although I do think the 38 points put up against NW last week is a bit misleading (kick return TD and a pick-6 account for 14 of those points).  Nonetheless, the hideous maize and blue are the better team right now.  The shutout streak ends, but L.J. Scott is really all MSU has on offense, and it won't be enough.  Sorry Sparty.  MSU: 13--UM: 20

Florida Gators @ Louisiana State Tigers

Draper: A sexy matchup in the Bayou...before Will Grier was suspended for the year.  The Gators were a pleasant surprise through the first half of the year (even with the close call vs. UK) but this is the straw that broke the Gator's back...and oh yeah, there's a guy named Leonard Fournette on the other sideline.  With Grier, the Gators had a chance (still not a great one), without him, I don't see this being close.  Death Valley is really tough to win in at night, even for full teams.  This could be over by half.  UF: 10--LSU: 27
Hoying: A league of terrible quarterbacks just got terribler. Florida's Will Grier, a virtual lock for all-SEC QB, peed in the wrong cup and now he'll have to watch Treon Harris bumble and stumble his way against a fearsome Tiger D in Death Valley. That is, if Harris himself doesn't get suspended again before Saturday. It's not like LSU is going to be any better through the air, but when you have Leonard Fournette, you don't really need a two-dimensional offense. It's like having a 16 oz prime rib and complaining that your salad doesn't have enough croutons on it. Florida, like a crouton, is toast, and not even the Ol' Ball Coach could save them. It's not possible to lose your superstar QB for the season and compete for the national title. Fla: 17--LSU: 31 
Schweinfurth: What happens when you don't check the label on your over-the-counter supplements? You get suspended for using a PED (oops). So now both teams have huge question marks at the QB position. It's also put up or shut-up time for Fournette. I think he will provide all the offense LSU needs in this game, but doesn't rip off the big one he has had the last few weeks. Fla: 13--LSU: 14
Seeberg:  Can LSU throw the ball?  I honestly have no idea.  What's scarier is that LSU has no idea either, averaging a paltry 122 yards per game.  If Fournette runs all over the Gators he is a likely shoe-in for the Heisman but I don't see that happening.  He'll certainly get near/over 100 yards, but it will probably take 20-25 carries.  Florida's offense isn't exactly a juggernaut either, but they did put up 38 on Ole Miss which is more than I would expect LSU to score against the Rebels.  Oddly, Florida doesn't run the ball particularly well, so both offenses are one-dimensional.  In short, the squad I trust most on the field is the Florida D, having faced better competition than LSU and giving up 8 fewer ppg.  Fournette might make enough plays to win it, but if he doesn't do it by himself, the Gators will rule the day. STOP THE PRESSES:  Will Grier was just suspended for the season for testing positive for PEDs.  I had Florida before that news, but that just might be the break LSU needs to pull out a low-scoring win.  FLA: 10--LSU: 17

Penn State Nittany Lions @ THE University of Cincinnati Bearcats

Draper: Penn State was to be the second biggest threat to the Buckeyes after the Spartans.  Now, I'm not really concerned at all.  Christian Hackenberg was once the NFL darling, but he folds under pressure...uh oh.  The front seven will be giving him fits all day (I'm saying 5 sacks).  I haven't seen a single thing out of Happy Valley that should worry the Buckeyes.  This is a rebound game for the defense after a subpar performance vs. craptastic Maryland.  Offensively, there were some good things that need to continue.  This whole redzone QB thing bothers me (if JT is the best making decisions in the red zone, he's the best option period) but we should have plenty of time to work out the kinks.  Game goals: , no turnovers for the offense, utilize the short passing game effectively but take a few shots deep, and the usual 100+ for Zeke. Defensively, at least 3 sacks, zero big plays, and run defense.  Another tune-up game that SHOULD be done by half.  PSU: 10 -- OSU: 38 

Hoying: FINALLY. That's the #1 Buckeye team we've been waiting to see since Labor Day. No turnovers? Check. Perfect in the red zone? Check. Contain the QB? ......well, it's a good thing we don't have to worry about facing another mobile QB for a while (bring it on, Cook & Rudock). Last year, this was the game that I thought would solidify OSU's resurrection from their awful loss to VT, but it instead showed that they could handle adversity and come together when it mattered most. This season, I'm not really worried. Hackenberg continues to struggle when put under pressure (dear Lord...) and the two-headed monster should shred an overrated Nittany Lion D. Make no mistake, Penn State is a complete mirage, and if the Bucks keep their current trajectory, they might steal a few first place votes back on Sunday morning. PSU: 13--OSU: 35
Schweinfurth: Ahh yes, Pick Six University is rolling into town this week to face off the Men of the Black and...What are our school colors again? The two headed monster of Cardale and J.T. looked good and the coaching staff did a very good job of playing to both QBs' strengths. I expect this to continue with some J.T. sprinkled in to other areas of the field as well (probably some short yardage packages). This is going to be a pass first game as the Nittany Lions are going to load up to stop Zeke. Is this the week we see Braxton throw a pass? Maybe if it is the jet sweep tap pass. Otherwise, he stays on the outside. I expect Braxton and Thomas to have huge games (100+ yards each). We also get to see Christian Sackenberg and boy will he take a beating. Yes, the Lion offensive line has looked better since that Temple game, but they haven't faced a D-Line like this since last year's OSU game and they gave up 4 sack. Lewis, Washington, Bosa, and Lee all get at least one sack in this game. PSU lives up to expectations this year and Powell gets the pick six. PSU: 10--OSU: 45
Seeberg:  SO many games this week that seem as if they will be closely contested, this is the only one I can pick with a good amount of confidence.  The offense seemed to take a step forward last week.  Still too many penalties but no turnovers is definitely a plus.  J.T. in the red zone was unexpected but highly effective.  We just have to hope that one week of tape isn't enough for teams to put a package together to thwart our sudden red-zone efficiency.  Our previously highly touted defense apparently refuses to use a spy on a running quarterback, but thankfully good ole' Sackenburg is a relatively stagnant target in the pocket.  I'm still concerned about the receiving corps- only Michael Thomas appears to be getting separation with any consistency.  I also think Samuel needs more touches to compliment Zeke and Braxton in the backfield.  Still, in the 'Shoe and not the confines of Drunkard Happy Valley for a night game, the Bucks should win going away.  PSU: 17--OSU: 38

Upset Special

Draper: Kansas State over Oklahoma
Hoying: Arizona State over Utah
Schweinfurth: West Virginia over Baylor
Seeberg:  Louisville over Florida State

Monday, October 12, 2015

Grading the Bucks: Week 6--Maryland

Offense: B
Amazing how the woes of the red zone disappear when Mr. Barrett enters at QB.  In all fairness, Cardale did have a nice day, but the indecision is still there.  Also, he was majorly bailed out by Braxton on a simple seam route that was significantly overthrown.  Zeke was his normal awesome self.  I take exception with the O-line play that, in my opinion, is causing some of the issues on offense.  They simply aren't getting the explosive burst that I would like off the ball on run plays. Zeke is getting his, but primarily due to his skill, not the blocking up front. Still wondering why we haven't seen more of the Cardale down field throws.  The toss to Marshall was setup by great pass protection and we need more explosive plays of that variety.

Defense: D
This was concerning.  Running quarterbacks have always caused the Bullet defense to show some chinks in the armor.  The D-line has pass rushing ability, but they seem to have trouble plugging up the running lanes.  Maryland scored 4 TDs: 2 due to explosive plays that arose from defensive breakdowns, 1 that was methodical, and 1 that was in garbage time.  Let downs in the secondary are inexcusable as is the QB run TD.  Hiccups happen, but mistakes of the magnitude we saw against the likes of horrible Maryland can't continue.  Missed tackles reared their ugly head periodically this game as well.

Special Teams: B-
Great coverage on kicks/punts (huge hit by Fada was beautiful) and Johnston punted very well (55 yard net average).  Missed FG and kickoff out of bounds provide a serious downgrade.  This needs to stop.

Coaching: C+
Offense cooks under Barrett, but for some reason, the coaches only let him operate in the red zone.  If you only trust one QB in the red zone, that's your QB.  Cardale was ok in this game, but still far too indecisive to trust as a leader on the field.  Let JT orchestrate the red zone offense in a decisive manner from any location on the field.  Defensively, the front seven need to work on the rush defense and the linebackers need  to attack in a more decisive manner.

Overall: C
21 point victory and it only yields a C? Darn right.  There was no excuse for this sorry Maryland team to score 28 points.  None.  Offensively, there was improvement (wonder why?) but major stepback defensively.  There are still more 'warm up' games, but it's time to stop the 'preseason' mentality and bring everything to the table every game.  We need to start bullying teams and remind everyone why OSU was/is the juggernaut everyone expected.

Thursday, October 08, 2015

Week 6 - I Went Back to Ohio...

Standings
1) Seeberg               19-7    (0-5 upset)
2) Draper                 17-9    (3-2 upset) 
3) Schweinfurth     16-10    (1-4 upset)
3) Hoying                16-10    (1-4 upset)


A few loyal fans in Buckeye Nation may have been a bit worried at times on Saturday, but Ohio State is coming home after another tough road test, still undefeated and #1 in both polls (ay, oh, way to go, Ohio). The ranks of the undefeateds also feature a few surprise teams that find themselves in put-up-or-shut-up games this week. When the dust settles, we'll have a better idea of who are the contenders, and who are the pretenders.

Navy Midshipmen @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Draper: Navy finally got over the hurdle vs. the Irish but for this contest, we return to South Bend and an angry Irish squad.  I'll be honest, I was surprised with the fight that ND showed at Death Valley.  The option attack puts up some points, but not enough as the Midshipman falls short under the shadow of touchdown Jesus.  Navy: 24--ND: 31
Hoying: It's October and Navy is still undefeated! Sure, they have 4 wins vs. crap, but that was Notre Dame's entire resume until they Clemsoned against Clemson last week. The Irish are blowing through QBs as fast as a certain other team near and dear to our hearts, yet still getting pretty consistent play (except on 2-point conversions, but I don't think Malik Zaire is calling the plays). Navy doesn't really have to worry about their passing game, focusing instead on how many ligaments their O-line can snap in opposing defenses' knees as they cut block all over the field. The United States Armed Forces offense enjoys a tactical advantage but their officers-in-training aren't quite as home on the football field as on the battlefield. Navy: 21--ND: 31
Schweinfurth: Even with the injuries, Notre Dame is still the better team here.  The Navy option game is like playing a shell game. The Irish see it every year and usually handle Navy pretty well. Navy's offense will keep them in this game but Notre Dame is just too much. Navy: 21--ND: 28

Seeberg:  Navy spoiled my upset pick last week as they are very at-home in the water... I mean that both as a terrible joke and also literally in football terms with their triple-option rushing attack.  As a result they are the undefeated team in this matchup- a matchup Navy has kept very close the last couple years, scoring 34 and 39 points respectively in narrow defeats.  I see a similar game playing out here, though slightly lower scoring.  Navy will get some traction in the triple-option, but Zaire has proven a more than capable backup and he will keep ND up enough on the scoreboard that Navy will be forced to throw late, spelling their doom.  NAVY: 27--ND: 35

Northwestern Wildcats @ Michigan Wolverines
Draper:  Northwestern is just chugging along like a machine right now.  Everything is set up for the Wildcats to have success (aka no OSU on the schedule).  Just 2 years ago, Evanston was rocking after a 6-0 start that the Buckeyes squelched (and backdoor covered).  Has NW turned the corner, or is it time for TSUN to believe again?  Michigan has shellacked an overrated (albeit still good) BYU team and a pathetic Maryland squad.  Are they that good? I don't think so.  Can they beat the Wildcats at home? Sure why not.  Adds more fuel to the Sun and Blue fire.  Sorry Greeny.  NW: 16--UM: 20
Hoying: As soon as Harbaugh was hired, I predicted the immediate resurrection of That Demon Up North. QB Jake Rudock wasn't ready for prime time against a better-than-expected Utah team, but the Maize and Blue have looked the part since, pitching back-to-back shutouts against...2 bad offenses. And look! Another bad offense is coming to town! The B1G enjoyed last week's Iowa-Wisconsin game so much that they scheduled a sequel. Northwestern runs the ball as well as anyone, but they can't throw (are we picking the Navy game again?). Kind of sounds like...Michigan. This would be a great opportunity for Northwestern's coming out party, but they're facing their slight superiors in every phase of the game...on the road. Big picture: it's better this game isn't in Evanston, or the Wildcats would be broken for another 2 years after another devastating loss. NW: 9--Mich: 13

Schweinfurth: Raise your hand if you saw one loss between these two teams at this point in the season. Anyone? I didn't think so. TUN has looked good against some "decent" competition (if you count a BYU team that won two games on Hail Mary's decent). Northwestern's defense has looked good this year and shut down a pretty good Stanford team. The Cardinal have a better QB than Jake Rudock and Northwestern just confused him. The Wolverines run a very similar offense to Stanford but worse. I'll take the Wildcats in an upset. Can't wait to see the look on Khaki Man's face. NW: 17--UM: 14 
Seeberg:  Pains me to admit it, but these may be the two most consistent, competent teams in the B1G thus far.  Both feature very stingy defenses and offenses that, with Jake Rudock beginning to understand which jerseys to throw to, limit mistakes and don't stop themselves too often (imagine if the Bucks did that??).  TTUN actually opened as 10-point favorites which I find shocking because it's reasonably plausible that neither team even scores 10 points.  It's not likely to be pretty, but the maize and blue are about to make some noise in the B1G again.  Heaven help us.  NW: 13--MICH: 20


California Bears @ Utah Utes

Draper:  Cal is undefeated after feasting on terrible defenses...but note those teams also feasted on their defense.  Goff and the Bears are fun to watch, but no one is really taking them seriously...yet.  Utah is the current flavor of the month after obliterating Oregon in Eugene, but how good is Oregon, really?  That being said, I want the team that has at least a small semblance of a defense.  Cal is fun, but Utah is better.  Salt Lake City will be rockin as usual.  Cal: 34--Utah: 45
Hoying: Stop me if you've heard this one before. Cal has a skinny little twig at QB putting up ridiculous numbers as the Bear offense rolls along...and actually stops their opponents on a drive or two?!? That's right, Cal has shut down the HIGH-POWERED Texas, Washington, and Washington State attacks on their way to a 5-0 start. The Utes, led by somewhat disappointing RB Devontae Booker and dual-threat QB Travis Wilson, will pose a bit of a tougher challenge to the Cal defense, but it's not like Cal QB Jared Moss...er...Goff is going anywhere. Utah may have held Oregon to 20 points, but Cal's attack is undoubtedly better. It won't be enough, especially with 2 weeks for the Utes to prepare, but Cal's rise continues with a hard-fought close loss. Cal: 27--Utah: 34

Schweinfurth: I've watched a little of Utah and none of Cal. Utah has been pretty impressive and it will be interesting once they play some better teams in the PAC-12. Until then, the Utes win. Cal: 28--Utah: 42
Seeberg:  Hey Cal is 5-0, who knew?  They even have 3 wins over power 5 opponents.  Unfortunately, those wins are a by a combined 13 points over Texas, Washington and Washington State.  Those three teams have a COMBINED 1 win over power 5 schools, WSU's 3-point win over powerhouse *cough not so much cough* Rutgers.  Had Cal seen Utah the week after blasting Oregon, they might have gotten the Utes squad on a letdown week and kept it close enough to pull off the upset.  Not with two weeks to prepare for the Utes though.  I don't know how "for real" either team is, but my money is on Utah. CAL: 21--UTAH: 38


Baylor Bears @ Kansas Jayhawks

Draper: This....is gonna be gross.  I expect Art Briles to pour it on as much as he can before being arrested for beating the stepson.  The important question is: Will Kansas score? The shutout is a tall order, considering the Baylor drives should last about 2 plays on average.  The Baylor defense will be super tired, but I think they'll go for it.  BU: 70--KU: 0
Hoying: Oh, those crafty Bears. While Ohio State, TCU, Alabama, Michigan State, Auburn, Oregon, USC, Georgia, Florida State, Notre Dame, Clemson, UCLA, LSU, Arizona State, Georgia Tech, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Stanford, Arizona, Boise State, Missouri, and Tennessee have each found themselves in tight spots in this young season, Baylor hasn't been close to being touched, thanks to their masterful scheduling. And the hits keep right on rolling as the Bears visit the winless Jayhawks, the only 1-A team to lose to Rutgers this season. In 2007, Kansas went 12-1 and beat Baylor 58-10 in Lawrence. The Jayhawk faithful would do well to stay home and watch that one again. Then cry. BU: 63--KU: 7
Schweinfurth: Are we picking this against the spread? Even if we did, Baylor would win. Kansas is SOOOOOOOO bad. Baylor may try to break the scoreboard. BU: 70--KU: 7
Seeberg:  Not 100% sure why we're picking this one.  4-0 Baylor, 0-4 Kansas.  Oh, and Kansas is starting its true freshman 3rd-string QB due to injuries to the top two signal-callers.  Will Baylor score 100?  It's conceivable.  This is a pad-your-stats game for the crew of Let's Go Bucks.  Baylor rolls and rolls and rolls some more.  BU: 77--KU: 13

Maryland Terrapins @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: Maryland is bad....I mean, really, REALLY bad.  The program has all but confirmed that Edsall will be out as soon as our game ends.  IU may not be great, but they're having a nice season and improving.  Maryland is moving in the other direction.  Once again, this is the perfect medicine for a struggling Buckeye offense.  Cardale still can't diagnose a defense and has lost the trust of the coaches.  Zeke will continue carrying the load, but the rest of the weapons need to step up.  Marshall needs to hold on to the ball, JT needs to run the option (what? he's not the QB yet? Why?), Michael Thomas needs to see more balls his way, etc.  The defense had too many lapses that led to big plays last week.  Firm it up and we're back on track.  MD: 9--OSU: 48

Hoying: Remember the Michigan State game in 1998? The Purdue game in 2009? Almost every great team seems to have that one game against an inferior opponent on which nothing seems to go right. This season, every game feels like that, except that the Buckeyes keep winning. Imagine what would happen if the Buckeyes played well, or averagely. For the next 5 games, it would probably mean a 30-40 point blowout. But for that to happen, Ohio State needs to overcome penalties, turnovers, and third down and red zone futility. There seems to be an easy answer (*cough JT Barrett cough*) but we'll have to wait for Cardale to come around and achieve the Craig Krenzel-level athletic greatness we know he can reach. Best news: Maryland is BAD, like worse than any of our other incredibly crappy opponents bad, so we can afford to do whatever the hell we think will help work out the kinks, without worrying about actually putting points on the board. Still, it would be nice to see us dominate just once before the tough games start, for the benefit of the collective cardiac health of the Let's Go Bucks! crew. I'm not 16 anymore like I was in 2002. MD: 6--OSU: 35
Schweinfurth: Maryland is the team Ohio State needs to play right now. Everyone says the Buckeye offense is worse this year, but the stats say otherwise. The big difference this year is the turnovers. Urban has had the team working hard at protecting the ball better (should have been done in camp). Urban has also emphasized getting Samuel and Miller more involved in the offense. Is this the week we finally see some short screens to Braxton and get him in space? I'm gonna call for Marshall to catch a deep ball and Miller shows some flashes. If Zeke gets his 20 carries, he gets at least 200 yards. I'm really not too worried about the Terps offense versus the Buckeye defense. I see 2 or 3 picks from the Silver Bullets and hopefully some Bosa shrugging in the backfield. This one gets ugly and we see JT in the 4th quarter. MD: 3--OSU: 42
Seeberg:  As- crap, what's the politically correct phrase- severely lacking in talent and execution (read:  bad) as Maryland is, I'm intrigued for this game.  Granted the weather was lousy, but TTUN went to Maryland and pitched their second straight shut out.  If our defense is as elite as we'd like to think it is (I personally think it's solid, but not elite yet), we better come close to pitching a shutout as well.  I'm also curious if we'll throw a slant, or a crossing route, or an in route, or ANY route within 15 yards of the line of scrimmage that isn't a swing pass or a pop pass.  Aside from Michael Thomas I don't know if our receivers are getting consistent separation, which might be the reason for the odd playcalling, but all the more reason to keep routes short so Cardale doesn't have to hang in the pocket too long before looking to run or for a safety valve.  In any case, a healthy dose of N-S Zeke (that would be North-South Zeke, fyi), some better play-calling (one hopes), and a solid defensive effort should make this one a lot less harrowing than IU.  MD: 10--OSU: 45

Upset Special

Draper: Texas over Oklahoma (because football makes no sense)
Hoying: West Virginia over Oklahoma State
Schweinfurth: Illinois over Iowa
Seeberg:  Missouri over Florida

Monday, October 05, 2015

Grading the Bucks: Week 5--Indiana

Is this the new normal?

Offense (no Zeke): D- / Zeke: A
This offense just isn't clicking.  I'm petrified that we saw this week that the coaches don't trust the starting quarterback to throw a pass.  Cardale seems to be unable to go through his progressions and when he sees a receiver open, he fires it 100 mph and misses the receiver.  Zeke has been fantastic even when the entire defense knows he's coming (couldn't get going because IU had 10 people in the box every play).  Receiver play was eh as was the O-line.  O-line opened some holes for Zeke and protected fairly well.  Also, it needs to be said.  Jalin Marshall is a liability.  He has some flash and dash, but the crushing turnovers and overall stupid play is taking it's toll.  To his credit, he blocked very well, but the turnovers... Say what you will, but I believe QB and WR are the issues. Cardale's final stats weren't terrible, but based on what I saw, he wasn't up to acceptable standards.  I know I'm completely blinded by JT's greatness...but he needs to be there.  I want a leader than can play the mental game.  Cardale is not playing the mental game.

Defense: C-
Penalties are killing us.  This defense has been solid all year but they disappointed me this week.  Look no further than the long run by Diamont.  Tyvis Powell absolutely layed an egg by taking the worst angle a safety has ever taken.  Apple continues to get picked on (even though he sealed the win on the final play).  Bell had a so-so game (not like his solid games of the recent past). The front seven was actually pretty good, but the big plays can't happen.  Glad to see Perry and McMillan stop the leading rusher in the conference. Early in the game, there was a huge miscommunication that can't happen on a long pass to a receiver.  Too sloppy for me.

Special Teams: B+
Nothing special.  Some nice punts and punt coverage.  Dropping the ball into the endzone on the punt was a huge swing that can't happen.  Overall...another mediocre performance (which I'm fine with).  They didn't cost us anything which is a win in my Special Teams book.

Coaching: D
Play calling is still an absolute joke.  Know your personnel when formulating a gameplan.  I'm not a 'give it to Zeke on every play' guy, but I support more north south running with Zeke and more short quick hitter passes (which don't seem to be in the playbook).  I'm also a fan (especially against the 126th ranked pass defense in the nation) of a few chuck it up and let your receiver go get it...you know the entire offense during the playoff for Cardale.  Yes, Devin Smith is gone, but even an arm punt isn't terrible at times when there's the chance of a homerun.  I don't think we threw a single deep bomb all game.  THAT'S WHAT CARDALE'S STRENGTH IS!!

Overall: D+
Maybe Indiana is secret good.  Maybe not.  Doesn't matter to me.  This Buckeye team can't roll it out there like that and hope to win every game.  You're either getting better or getting worse...and I don't see us getting better.  Next week is definitely good for what ails you in Maryland.  They are butt, and we must expose them for what they are (hehe).  JT, I love you.  Come back to us...

Thursday, October 01, 2015

Week 5 - B1G East Battle

Standings
1) Seeberg               14-5    (0-4 upset)
2) Draper                 13-6    (3-1 upset) 
2) Schweinfurth     13-6    (1-2 upset)
4) Hoying                11-8    (1-3 upset)


What a difference a year makes. After the end of nonconference play last season, the only undefeated B1G team was Penn State. This year, 5 out of the 29 remaining undefeated teams call the Big Ten their home. But only two meet this week as conference play kicks off in earnest.


West Virginia Mountaineers @ Oklahoma Sooners
Draper: Another Oklahoma game...where is it? Norman? These are the games Stoops usually wins.  Oklahoma has been tested in Knoxville (how good are the Vols? Don't know) but WVU has played the Little Sisters of the Poor.  I don't know how good either of these teams are, but I'll lean Perine and the Sooners in Norman.  WVU: 27 -- OU: 34
Hoying: You thought Bert and the 'Backs had a tough schedule? Try West Virginia. The Mountaineers kick off the first of 4 ranked matchups in October with a visit to Norman. Oklahoma had a nice comeback win against Tennessee, but last week the Gators showed us that any washed-up has-been former power can do the same. Meanwhile, West Virginia doesn't seem to be missing QB Clint Trickett, with Skyler Howard stepping in to lead one of the nation's top passing attacks. Beating West Virginia requires competent defense, and after Oklahoma gave up 38 to Tulsa, I'm not sure they can do it. The Sooners enter a land of confusion, and West Virginia gets a victory against all odds. WVU: 34--OU: 31
Schweinfurth: I feel like Oklahoma has fallen into the Big 12 trap of good offense, no defense. West Virginia has been doing that dance for years and are used to putting up big offensive numbers. I also feel that the Sooners are still settling into this new Air Raid system and are not running the ball enough. I give the edge to WVU, but they have a rough next few weeks. WVU: 42-OU: 38

Seeberg:  Not likely to see a whole lot of "D" in this one.  Oklahoma's win over the Vols has been cheapened by their second unconscionable 4th-quarter collapse against Florida last week, but that doesn't mean Oklahoma isn't still the better team in this matchup.  The Sooners are historically woeful on the road in any early-season matchup of consequence, but they got that monkey off their back by taking down rocky top, and back at home you can expect a better performance.  I like WVU and think they're a bit underrated personally, and in Morgantown I might give them the edge, but not in Norman.  Boomer Sooner survives a shootout  WVU: 42--OU: 45

Iowa Hawkeyes @ Wisconsin Badgers
Draper:  Are either of these teams any good? Iowa is undefeated after a long FG to beat Pitt while Wisconsin's 'feather in the cap' is losing to Bama.  Who do I trust more? I don't really like either of these teams, but Kirk Ferentz has had too many bad to mediocre years to give any credence to until I have more evidence.  In Madison? Edge Badgers.  Iowa: 14--Wisconsin: 24
Hoying: Remember when Nebraska ran Bo Pelini out on a rail for winning no fewer than 9 games for 7 straight seasons? Iowa hasn't won 9 games since 2009, but the Hawkeyes may be poised to make a run this year. Iowa swept their nonconference slate for the first time in 6 years, and they drew powerhouses Indiana and Maryland from the BEast this year. But if they want to face our beloved Bucks under the lights in Indy, they'll have to get by a Wisconsin team that doesn't run the ball. That's as confusing as, well, Iowa still being relevant in October. Paul Chryst's growing pains continue as Kirk steals one in Madison. Iowa: 17--Wisc: 16

Schweinfurth: Iowa got past Iowa State for the first time in ever a few weeks ago. I still don't trust the Hawkeyes. This game is going to be a fight in the trenches and Wisconsin typically has the bulls to win that fight. Iowa: 14--Wisc: 17
Seeberg:  Iowa's unbeaten?  Color me shocked.  The Hawkeyes even have 2 wins over power 5 opponents, though a 3-point home win against Pitt barely qualifies.  (Man, I hope Mark May reads that).  The Badgers are struggling to find an identity on offense but have given up a measly 3 points in their last 3 games combined.  If my math skills serve me right, that's only an extra point per contest.  Iowa broke out offensively last week against North Texas but, well, that's North Texas.  Bucky reestablishes himself as the mascot to beat out west.  IOWA: 13--WISC: 24


Alabama Crimson Tide @ Georgia Bulldogs

Draper:  The streak of 6 straight years of Nick Saban and the Tide being favorites has come to an end.  Will the Bulldogs further dethrone the Bad Boys of the SEC? Will UGA ever not disappoint in the big game under Richt? There will be some fantastic running back play in this play with Nick Chubb and Derrick Henry.  The question is: Will Lane Kiffin remember Henry is on the team? I think we're seeing a decline in the Bama juggernaut and Georgia gets the win at home (only to crap it away in a few weeks). Ala: 27 -- UGA: 31
Hoying: In order to beat Crimson Tide under Nick Saban, you either need to play a near-perfect game or be
 a near-perfect team (or play them in his first year there, but that ship sailed 8 years ago). We saw the former in the Tide's second consecutive loss to Ole Miss (no, the Rebels aren't going to the playoff this year). Is Georgia the latter? The Bulldogs certainly look the part, riding Nick Chubb and an elite ground game to 4 blowout wins over teams that Bret Bielema would complain about and then lose to. The passing game isn't spectacular, but it's better than the hot mess brewing behind center in Tuscaloosa. If Lane Kiffin can finally learn to trust his stud RBs and stop throwing the ball, Alabama will come away with a victory. Never bet against Lane. Ala: 31--UGA: 24
Schweinfurth: Georgia can run the ball and Nick Chubb is a beast. For some reason, Lane Kiffin has a allergy to running the ball. Oh wait, he is Lane Kiffin. In Saban's last two losses, his team has just been beaten up front. I think Georgia is the more physical team and Mark Richt finally gets the Saban monkey off his back. Ala: 20--UGA: 28
Seeberg:  I hate to disagree with my colleague Mr. Hoying, but I intentionally bet against Lane last week and it worked out.  JUST GIVE DERRICK HENRY THE BLEEPING BALL.  Will he figure it out this week?  I honestly don't know.  What I do know is that Greyson Lambert has only attempted 17 throws per game in Georgia's 4-0 start because Nick Chubb and Co. are ramming the running game down everyone's throat.  As good as their ground attack is I have trouble believing that much one-dimensionality can cause sustained problems for the Bama D.  Despite a 7:0 TD-int ratio this year, Lambert for his career is just 18:13.  I think Bama's D will rattle him and make a couple plays to bail out Kiffin's consistently head-scratching play calling and, unfortunately, put the Crimson Tide back in the hunt to be beaten in the playoff again.  ALA: 28--UGA: 23


Kansas State Wildcats @ Oklahoma State Cowboys

Draper: Has anyone actually seen a K-State game this year?  All I know about these teams is the the Pokes squeaked out a close win in Austin last week so I feel more confident with them.  Bill Snyder is known for scheduling (through Kansas State) cupcakes to start the year, so 4-0 is never a shock. The undefeated season comes to a halt in Stillwater.  KSU: 20--OSU: 34
Hoying: I apologize for putting this game on the list, but K-State is still undefeated after a classic Bill Snyder non-conference slate: South Dakota, UTSA, and Louisiana Tech. Oklahoma State almost faceplanted against a bad Texas team and need to find their footing if they're going to keep pace in a deep Big XII. OSU QB Mason Rudolph leads a Cowboy offense that has sputtered at time, failing to reach 40 (I'm a man!) in 3 of their 4 games. I think they'll again have trouble hitting that mark, but an improved defense should keep the Wildcats at bay. KSU: 20--OSU: 31
Schweinfurth: Not sure how this one plays out due to the fact that I only know who the coaches of these teams are. I do know that Mike Gundy typically has a pretty good offense, so I'll pick the Cowboys out of my hat. KSU: 21--OSU: 30
Seeberg:  Tough to figure this one out.  Kansas State has taken the mantle from Baylor as the most pathetic nonconference schedule known to man to get to 3-0.  Okla State looked rough against a Texas team that can suddenly score the ball a little, but squeaked out the W to stay unbeaten as well.  Ironically, the Big 12's OSU has had a similar arc to our beloved Buckeyes this year:  Highly touted offense that has struggled at times, but a D with question marks that has actually played half-decent.  Add that to the fact that K-State gave up 33 at home to Louisiana Tech and you've got yourself a 5-0 Cowboys squad by Saturday's end.  KSU: 24--OSU: 34

Ole Miss Rebels @ Florida Gators

Draper: Ole Miss is going to tout that win over Bama forever...even though they got super lucky and we don't know if Bama is 'world beater' of the recent past.  That being said...Florida? Really? Yeah, they're undefeated but you spell mirage G-A-T-O-R-S.  The game will be shockingly close in the 3rd but the Rebs pull away late.  Miss: 28 -- UF: 16
Hoying: Is Florida a historically mediocre program buoyed by two all-time great coaches: Spurrier and Meyer? Or are they a top-tier mainstay that only incompetent hacks like the Zooker and big dumb Will Muschamp can wreck? The post-Muschamp Gators have yet to lose a game, but the competition ramps up in a hurry. The Rebels, the hottest team east of Utah, are looking to avoid the post-Alabama meltdown that wrecked their playoff hopes last season. That quest will end eventually, but not this week, no matter how loud Jim McElwain screams. Miss--31--UF: 13
Schweinfurth: Florida is still rebuilding and Ole Miss looks like the class of the SEC right now. Miss: 35--UF: 20
Seeberg:  Really?  A last-minute win over a we-forget-games-have-four-quarters Tennessee squad is enough to put the Gators in the top 25?  Ridiculous.  Thankfully that will be a short-lived issue as the Rebels come to town sporting the only team in the top ten in both offensive and defensive efficiency- even after meeting the overlord Bama.  Rebels make quick work of this one.  MISS: 45--FLA: 17

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Clemson Tigers
Draper: Did I say mirage? That is the theme of this game.  I believe both of these teams may be mirages, but Notre Dame's claim to fame was taking down the Jackets...who subsequently lost to Duke.  This is when the Irish rubber meets the road and Clemson's Death Valley is the 3rd loudest stadium I've ever been to (behind the Swamp and the Shoe).  Dabo tries to blow it, but this is the game in which the Domers fall from glory.  Clemson's day will come, but it will not be this day.  ND: 21 -- Clemson: 31
Hoying: When will Notre Dame's injuries finally catch up with them? The crew at Let's Go Bucks! unanimously picked the Irish to crash and burn against GT after losing Malik Zaire, but the Jackets rambled and wrecked their way to a loss in South Bend. ND's fate may change as they leave the friendly confines and enter "Death Valley." Clemson has 3 okay wins against 3 bad teams, but they have all of 2 home losses in the last 4 years. Notre Dame doesn't travel particularly well, and they don't have the horses to move the ball on an improved Tiger defense. Pick the home team. ND: 20--Clem: 35
Schweinfurth: At some point, all of these injuries have to catch up with the Irish. I think it is this week. Both offenses move the ball well and neither team plays great defense. Time for a shootout in Death Valley. ND: 42--Clem: 49
Seeberg:  I've actually been very impressed with Clemson this year.  They seem to be playing a reasonable facsimile of...oh crap what's the word?  Oh yeah.  DEFENSE.  Though their offense struggled against the only 1-A opponent they've played to date, the Golden Domer D is more porous than in recent years.  And quite frankly, I just don't like them either; however, I thoroughly enjoy the Tiger Rag, so I gotta go with #soybeanwind (it's an anagram for Dabo Swinney that I sadly cannot take credit for, but if you aren't watching Last Week Tonight clips on youtube the following day like everybody not fortunate enough to have HBO then SHAME ON YOU...and go watch it!).  ND: 20--CLEM: 31

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Indiana Hoosiers

Draper: Will the Buckeye offense ever figure it out? This is the (fifth straight) week in which they should.  Let's be real here.  IU has an offense.  Sudfeld is a good QB and Kevin Wilson can coach offense, but the Hoosier defense is a steaming pile of cow dung.  117th in the country in total defense after the murderer's row of Southern Illinois, FIU, Western Kentucky, and Wake Forest.  If the Bucks don't break 50, I'll be extremely disappointed. While the D gives up more than most will be comfortable with, Cardale hits some of those bombs he missed last week and the Bucks keep it going.  OSU: 62 -- IU: 30

Hoying: For the fourth time this year, the Bucks enter a battle of unbeatens. But this game is a really, really, B1G deal. You may have seen that Ohio State and Indiana haven't faced each other unblemished since 1954. What you probably don't know is that that was the season opener! The Buckeyes and Hoosiers haven't met with both teams better than 1-0...EVER. Ohio State doesn't lose to Indiana often, but the wins have not come easily under Urban Meyer. Letting Tevin Coleman run all over you is understandable, but allowing Xander Diamont to have success throwing the ball is not. This year, the Hoosiers have Nate Sudfeld back and might lead the best offense the Bullets will face this regular season. Don't expect Cardale to struggle against another vintage Indiana defense, but the Hoosiers have just enough weapons to make this one interesting. The good news is, there's no reason at all for Ohio State to be looking ahead. On to 5-0. OSU: 42--IU: 24
Schweinfurth: Laugh at this all you want, but I think the Western Michigan game was a great tune up for Indiana. Both teams like to throw quick passes to the outside and then run inside zone from a wide open spread. This exposed the Buckeye interior defense, but I expect this coaching staff to make the adjustment. Now that the QB situation is finally settled, Cardale can get all the reps in practice and lock those deep bombs in. The receivers had separation last week and they should be able to get behind the leaky Hoosiers' secondary. It's B1G season so it's time to hammer Zeke and stop getting cute with the "Globetrotter Offense." OSU: 49--IU: 21
Seeberg:  
 The good from last week:  The offense looked better, the special teams improved as well.  The bad?  The D looked worse.  Getting into conference play, I fear the Huskies may have exposed some weaknesses.  Specifically, teams can score on us if centers don't shoot their teams in the foot.  In any event, Indiana can typically score it well the past few years, and they give up points equally well.  This should be a matchup that will test the Silver Bullets but allow the offense to begin to hit its stride.  What's a Hoosier anyway?  OSU: 45--IU: 20

Upset Special

Draper: CLANGA over Texas A&M
Hoying: Minnesota over Northwestern
Schweinfurth: Texas Tech over Baylor
Seeberg:  Air Force over Navy

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Grading the Bucks: Week 4--Western Michigan

Eh.....what a thoroughly mediocre game.  Need to get better.

Offense: B-
I'm sorry.  I still expect more from this team.  There is simply too much talent to only score 31 on offense vs. the likes of Western Michigan.  Cardale had a nice day, but it should have been a very special day if those bombs were thrown correctly or if he managed the goalline situations correctly (that intentional grounding was a joke...).  He missed on 2-3 other deep passes that were open.  This is supposed to be his strength (and was in the playoffs).  We the burners we have on the outside, that a pass that must be completed.  Better game from the O-Line but Zeke needs more north-south plays called for him. He looked good, but I want more runs up the gut and out-muscling folk.  Step in the right direction, but the talent dictates we should be farther along.  On a sad note, JT didn't look very good, but I'm guessing Urban has completely thrown everything behind Cardale.  Not my choice, but since Jones is getting the reps, rust is expected from JT.

Defense: C+
Again, not good enough.  The defensive line got great pressure on passing plays but were bullied on rushing plays--unacceptable at OSU vs. MAC.  The linebackers were simply terrible in run defense.  McMillan had a ton of tackles but this was mostly a product of being completely out of position and catching the running back after it had passed him.  The inside linebackers were not up to snuff.  Washington has had a great season and was rewarded with a great play and fat-guy TD (3rd straight week with a defensive TD). Secondary was pretty good except for Eli Apple who looked terrible.  It was only one game, but he was certainly picked on.  Also, the Damon Webb suspension hurt the other side of the field.  Gareon Conley wasn't visible because WMU must have seen tape and decided it wasn't worth testing him.  Overall, 'eh' performance.  Too many gashes on the running plays for my liking.

Special Teams: A-
What? We didn't suck? No kickoffs out of bounds for the second straight week, a blocked punt (called back), blocked FG, and a punt downed at the 1....nice resume for the week.  Only downgrade is no scores, but I'm great with these results on special teams.

Coaching: B
In game coaching was fine, but I'd still like to see more Zeke up the gut at times.  Thankfully, they started calling deep passes to exploit Cardale's strength.  Defensively, the team didn't look angry enough and they looked confused as to why they were getting beat on rushing plays.  The physical talent advantage is enormous, so the difference is either preparation (coaching) or motivation (coaching).  I need to see a higher level of focus from the players.  This game should have been an absolute laugher at halftime (40 point lead)...it would have been last year.  Need to rediscover the hunger.

Overall: B-
Thoroughly mediocre.  Keep improving.  Another undefeated foe with a chip on the shoulder this week.  IU is going to throw everything on the table.  Be ready Bucks.  This weeks level might not be enough next week.